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New York just surpassed San Francisco as the most expensive rental market in the U.S.*New York City is now the most expensive rental market in the nation, finally surpassing San Francisco.*The median rent for a one-bedroom apartment in New York City is now $2,810, and in San Francisco it is $2,800.*Since January, New York rents have jumped nearly 20%, but San Francisco rent is up by only about 5%.
End of housing market on 'steroids' to hit growth: MacquarieMacquarie Group is warning the slowdown in Canadian housing activity may have a material impact on the country's economic growth.(...) Canada's economy has been reliant on housing to prop up growth since the financial crisis in 2007 with nominal residential investment accounting for about 10 per cent of gross domestic product. That’s about double the rate in the United States, and has only been exacerbated by the pandemic-fuelled boom in homebuying and renovation activity.Doyle said reliance on housing leaves Canada more vulnerable to economic shocks emanating from the residential market.“It’s difficult to understate how important or how paramount housing has been to the economy and economic growth over the past year and even over the past decade. It has been a significant growth driver for the past 20 years and particularly over the past five or six [years],” he said.“Then we saw during the pandemic, I would describe it as virtually going on steroids as people were working from home. There was another catalyst on top of an already elevated or stretched housing [market]. It has been one of the sole drivers of growth, not only over the past year but over the last decade.”
Can China Step Off Its Property Treadmill? Not Likely(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Danny, the political theorist, aspiring lawyer and purveyor of rare herbs in the British cult film Withnail and I, understood the problem of Chinese real estate. “If you're hanging on to a rising balloon, you're presented with a difficult decision,” he observes. “Let go before it's too late or hang on and keep getting higher, posing the question: How long can you keep a grip on the rope?” Several Chinese cities suspended land sales in recent days and weeks, after a revamped auction system failed to have the desired effect of restraining prices. It was the latest of Beijing’s periodic stop-start attempts to cool the housing market. This year, these have also included revived talk of introducing a recurrent property tax, a long-debated measure that has gained fresh impetus as President Xi Jinping places a priority on reducing inequality. Don’t expect these efforts to amount to much, at least in the short term.More than a decade ago, the American hedge fund manager Jim Chanos said that China was on a “treadmill to hell” because of the economy’s dependence on real estate for growth. Chanos was wide of the mark in his prediction that the property bubble might burst as early as 2010. Yet in the intervening years, the imbalances have only grown more pronounced. While a collapse has been avoided, China is no closer to weaning itself off its real estate addiction. In fact, the dependency appears to have grown. Despite Xi’s admonishment that “housing is for living in and not for speculation,” and the government’s regular entreaties to banks to scale back property lending and increase the flow of credit to small business, the share of funds directed to the industry has risen. Real estate loans have increased to more than 27% of total yuan advances, from less than 20% a decade ago, according to People’s Bank of China data. Moreover, this is certainly an understatement — at least according to the country’s head banking regulator, who ought to know. Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, wrote last year that the real share of property-related loans is more like 39%, or 70 trillion yuan ($10.8 trillion).Floating on top of this ocean of funds is a bubble of epic proportions, one that by various metrics easily overshadows the pre-global financial crisis run-up in U.S. property values (which burst with such disastrous consequences) or the unsustainable booms in European countries such as Ireland and Spain. It stands comparison with the Japanese real estate bubble of the 1980s, which helped send the country into at least one “lost decade” when it finally burst in the early 1990s.Two measures serve to illustrate how extended prices have become. In leading cities, prices relative to average incomes are orders of magnitude greater than in global metropolises such as London, New York or Sydney, where valuations are often viewed as unaffordable, according to Numbeo, a cost-of-living data collection website.And rental yields are often less than half of what is available in those markets, despite China having relatively higher interest rates. The PBOC’s one-year lending rate is 4.35%, while the U.S. fed funds rate is at 0% to 0.25% and the Bank of England’s base rate is 0.1%.Arguably, China is different because of its rapid development, fast-rising incomes and lower levels of household indebtedness — though these factors, which have helped to underpin real estate demand for the past two decades, are starting to recede to varying degrees.Xi, who is determined to create a more egalitarian society, has good reason to want to reshape the housing market, which has contributed to China’s soaring inequality. That task would be a lot easier if valuations weren’t perched at such a precariously high level. Fundamental change would risk cascading effects through the financial system and economy that might be hard to control.Take recurrent property taxes, which are favored in most developed countries, where they are regarded by economists as relatively fair, low-cost and efficient. China has taxes on transactions, but no regular levy on the assessed value of property, beyond trial programs in the cities of Shanghai and Chongqing that have made a negligible contribution to revenue collection since their introduction in 2011. The widespread rollout of such a tax would have to consider the potential effect on owners and supply. With yields so low and no ongoing taxes to pay, many investors choose to keep their apartments vacant. China had more than 60 million empty dwellings as of 2017, with the biggest cities (tiers 1 to 3) having vacancy rates of 17% or more, according to a 2020 paper by Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang of Tsinghua University. Forcing investors to pay a regular tax would increase the cost of carry, giving many an incentive to sell or lease out their properties. That would boost suppy, pushing down prices and rents, putting pressure on indebted developers, and potentially slowing construction activity and the economy. Once jobs and growth are threatened, that’s likely to be a game-changer. With the delta variant now weighing on the economy, a turning point may not be too far away. China’s policy makers have long-term plans and visions, but they also respond in a pragmatic and iterative manner to changing circumstances — “crossing the river by feeling the stones,” as late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping called it. Like it or not, the government still needs an expanding real estate industry, even if it’s one that has already been defying gravity for years. How to feel the stones when your feet are no longer on the ground, though? Then, as Danny would advise, all you can do is hold on to the rope.
China Property Market Curbs May Be “Volcker Moment” Says Nomura(Bloomberg) -- Beijing’s unprecedented determination to curb the property sector could be China’s “Volcker Moment” as it will cause a “significant” slowdown in economic growth, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.Unlike in previous economic down cycles, Chinese authorities look set to tighten property sector policy and tame prices this time, in order to reduce wealth inequality and boost the falling birthrate, economists led by Lu Ting wrote in a report Tuesday. Policy makers will be willing to sacrifice near-term economic growth to tame house prices and divert financial resources out of the property sector, which accounts for a quarter of China’s gross domestic product, they wrote.A “Volcker Moment” refers to a policy change like the decision by the Federal Reserve under former Chairman Paul Volcker to quickly raise interest rates to 20% to contain the inflation of the late 1970s. That sudden change caused a jump in unemployment but also led to inflation slowing. “Markets over the near term need to be prepared for a likely marked growth slowdown, more developer defaults and home foreclosures, and perhaps some turmoil in stock markets,” the economists wrote.Authorities appear to be determined to expand the property tax scheme from trials in Shanghai and Chongqing cities to the entire nation, according to the report. This will address wealth inequality and help replace local governments’ income from land sales, which will be reduced by the ongoing curbs, the report said.
Private schools distort China’s property market, frustrating Xi’s egalitarian questOfficials in an economic backwater in central China have struck upon a novel way to boost the local property market: schools funded by developers that have earned a reputation for getting their students into the country’s top universities.Property sales in Hengshui, a city of 4.3m in Hebei province, are soaring despite recent attempts by the central government to rein in both runaway property prices and China’s booming private education sector.“I have closed more deals over the past two months than the previous two years combined,” said Li Hongning, a real estate agent in downtown Hengshui. “Clients are willing to pay extra to finish the transaction as soon as possible.”Xi Jinping’s determination to deliver “common prosperity” in one of the world’s most unequal societies will hinge in large part on his administration’s ability to rein in China’s runaway property market. The Chinese president has also pledged to equalise access to education, after cracking down on expensive private tutoring services last month.But the degree to which good schools are continuing to distort property markets across the country suggests that even China’s most powerful leader in decades will struggle to overcome the market forces and local government interests standing in the way of his egalitarian goals.“Beijing may not be happy about the Hengshui model, as it creates a property bubble and exacerbates education inequality,” said Dan Wang, an economist at Hang Seng Bank in Shanghai. “But local governments are keen to adopt the practice to boost the economy.”Chinese property developers, led by industry leaders such as Vanke and Country Garden, have a tradition of building high quality private schools near residential projects to make the latter more appealing to home buyers.New York-listed Bright Scholar Education Holdings, a unit of Country Garden, has grown to become one of the nation’s largest private school networks with more than 57,000 students.Hengshui is no exception as parents have long been drawn to the city by the quality of its private schools, most of which have been funded by property developers and have garnered reputations for academic excellence.The city’s average home prices have more than doubled over the past five years, while those in neighbouring cities increased by just 20 per cent during the same period.The sales boom was triggered by the introduction of government rules restricting school places to the children of property owners. The requirement runs counter to central government policies aimed at reducing barriers to education and other social services in urban areas.“Education in Hengshui is better than elsewhere in Hebei,” said Wang Xiaona, an office worker from Shijiazhuang, the provincial capital. “I have no problem buying an overpriced home as long as it helps my child get into a good school.”This month Wang paid Rmb310,000 ($48,000) for a one-bedroom apartment, which will allow her son to enrol in a top-ranked middle school owned by one of Hengshui’s biggest real estate developers. Before the residency requirement was introduced, the flat was priced at Rmb280,000.“Our economy thrives on the influx of students, which has benefited everyone from grocery stores to property developers,” said a Hengshui government official who asked not to be named.Xi, however, has often railed to little effect against runaway property prices, saying that “homes are for living in, not speculating”.Hengshui first outlined plans to expand its overcrowded school system a decade ago, when the then cash-strapped municipal government had no choice but to turn to deep-pocketed business owners for funding.Property developers were quick to agree, betting that well-managed private schools would boost local home prices and also emerge as profit-centres in their own right.“Local governments need us to build good schools to bolster the economy,” said a Hengshui real estate executive. “They are not able to do it on their own. It was a win-win for both us and the local government.”Thanks to highly qualified teachers earning above-average salaries, and rigorous curriculums, Hengshui’s private schools now churn out students who excel at exams. In 2019, the city’s No 1 High School, owned by a local developer, accounted for 61 of Hebei’s top 100 college entrance exam results in Hebei.“Give us an average student and we will return you a Peking University freshman,” said an official at Hengshui No 1 High, referring to one of China’s top-ranked universities.Hengshui is now exporting its education-led growth model across the country. Over recent years Hengshui developers have opened schools in more than a dozen cities, most of them also under-developed.Zhang Fuqian, a Hengshui-based developer and president of Taocheng Middle School, one of the city’s best, has opened a 15,000-student campus in Binxian, a rural county in north-eastern Heilongjiang province.“The [local] government said the population and local home prices would decrease fast if I didn’t go there and open a good school,” Zhang said at a conference last month, referring to the sluggish housing markets and population outflows in Heilongjiang, as well as in nearby Jilin and Liaoning provinces.
Que reviente de una vez. De todas formas con esto se demuestran dos cosas, lo miserable que es la especie humana y lo conformista que se ha vuelto. La parte positiva es que siempre se puede imprimir el NFT y ponerlo en cualquier parte o incluso utilizarlo como papel higiénico.https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/glasgow-landlord-tries-renting-their-shter-out-micro-officehttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/micro-studio-listed-vancouver-bathroom-bed
China to strengthen financial support for common prosperityBEIJING -- The People's Bank of China has vowed to maintain the stability of macro policies and provide strong financial support for the country's bid to promote common prosperity.The central bank will take a raft of measures to maintain reasonably sufficient liquidity, better serve the real economy, enhance balanced regional development and facilitate the coordinated growth of different industries.Instead of adopting a deluge of strong stimulus policies, the bank will use various monetary tools to maintain liquidity at a reasonable and ample level and guide appropriate growth in loans.It will take measures to keep the growth of money supply and social financing in line with nominal economic growth, while keeping the macro leverage ratio basically stable.To better serve the real economy, the bank will keep optimizing financial services, continue to offer financial support to smaller businesses and encourage financial institutions to strengthen support in key areas and weak links of the economy, such as agriculture, manufacturing and green development.Efforts will be made to ramp up the sound and standardized growth of all types of capital, while resolutely preventing the disorderly expansion of capital, according to the bank.In order to promote common prosperity among farmers and in rural areas, the bank will continuously offer sound financial services for rural vitalization, provide financial assistance and shore up the construction of rural financial infrastructure and service systems.
Ibex = 9000. Soplen conmigo, que ese gap cae. y no-se-que-cosas que valen millones que no entiendo (y no quiero entender). El precio lo marca el comprador al pagarlo por "lo que sea....".Dios mio, Dios mio. En este anio he aprendido como en una vida entera, por que por primera vez lo he podido vivir personalmente, y no leerlo de terceros como cuentan los "historiadores". Que diferencia ... Cosas que no serviran para nada, como lagrimas que se pierden entre la lluvia ....
Gracias a su perro logró comprar la casa que quería: la polémica práctica para adquirir una propiedad en EEUUhttps://es.finance.yahoo.com/noticias/pueden-las-cartas-personales-de-los-compradores-inmobiliarios-perpetuar-el-racismo-un-estado-cree-que-si-075405616.html[...]Oregón es el primer estado en prohibir esta práctica. A partir de enero, los agentes de bienes raíces deben rechazar cualquier comunicación que revele la raza, color, religión, género, orientación sexual, nacionalidad, estado civil o estado familiar del comprador, de acuerdo con la nueva ley.“No coartamos la libertad de expresión oral o escrita. Limitamos la transmisión de mensajes que no son relevantes y que potencialmente podrían violar la ley de vivienda justa”, dijo a USA TODAY el representante demócrata Mark Meek, el legislador de Oregón que patrocinó la legislación.Si bien la mayoría de las personas están familiarizadas con prácticas racistas como el redlining, las cláusulas restrictivas y los préstamos abusivos, las cartas personales y las fotos que las acompañan son “el nuevo recurso mezquino del sector inmobiliario”, dijo Meek.[...]
Cita de: siempretarde en Agosto 25, 2021, 16:17:00 pmIbex = 9000. Soplen conmigo, que ese gap cae. y no-se-que-cosas que valen millones que no entiendo (y no quiero entender). El precio lo marca el comprador al pagarlo por "lo que sea....".Dios mio, Dios mio. En este anio he aprendido como en una vida entera, por que por primera vez lo he podido vivir personalmente, y no leerlo de terceros como cuentan los "historiadores". Que diferencia ... Cosas que no serviran para nada, como lagrimas que se pierden entre la lluvia ....¿Qué le pareció la sesión del lunes? En mi vida había visto una presión compradora semejante. Nunca. Hubo momentos en los que las ventas podrían haberse desbordado, pero no. Se "rellenaron" todas y cada una de las oleadas de órdenes de venta. Me impresionó. El viernes se configuró una situación peligrosa que se anuló el lunes gracias a esa inaudita presión compradora. Vuelve la calma chicha y la lenta subida. Es impresionante. Los desequilibrios y divergencias son bíblicos, galácticos, intergalácticos... A veces hay que escuchar al diablo (Goldman), sobre todo porque dice la verdad cuando le conviene y anuncia que en este mercado hay momentos -como el lunes- en el que más del 55% de las órdenes proceden de minoristas. Traducido significa que hay más "amateurs" que nunca en la historia comprando masivamente en cada jodido toque de medias. La pregunta es la de siempre: ¿Cuál será el disparador esta vez?Como siempre: Cuanto más dure peor será.
Banks Are Bingeing on Bonds, but Not Because They Want ToBanks are awash in deposits, and their customers are taking out fewer loans. So they have little choice but to buy up government debt, even if it means skimpy profits. U.S.The economy is growing. Businesses are hiring. Stocks are soaring. And banks are sitting on big piles of cash.If only they had a better place to put it.Lingering supply chain problems and anxiety over the potential for the Delta variant of the coronavirus to upend the economy again have pared back borrowing by businesses. And consumers flush with cash thanks to government stimulus efforts aren’t borrowing heavily, either.So banks have largely been left to invest in one of the least lucrative assets around: government debt.Rates on Treasury bonds are still near historically low levels, but banks have been buying government debt like never before. In the second quarter of 2021, banks bought a record of about $150 billion worth of Treasurys, according to a note published this month by JPMorgan analysts.It’s a strategy that’s almost guaranteed to produce skimpy profits, and banks are not thrilled to be doing it, analysts say. But they have little choice.“Widget companies make widgets, and banks make loans,” said Jason Goldberg, a bank analyst at Barclays in New York. “This is what they do. It is what they want to do.”By putting their customers’ deposits into investments such as loans or securities, like Treasury bonds, banks make the money needed to pay interest on those deposits and pocket a profit. When the economy is growing — like now — banks usually have no problem finding borrowers as consumers make big purchases and businesses expand. These loans provide better returns than Treasury bonds, which are usually reserved for times of uncertainty because banks will accept their lower rate of return in place of a risky loan.Borrowing briefly spiked when the pandemic hit, as companies tapped lines of credit. But the now-booming economy isn’t producing demand for loans, just as banks have plenty of money on hand to lend.Businesses either have enough cash already, have other ways to raise money or see little reason to undertake a risky expansion amid the still-smoldering pandemic. And consumers are not only avoiding new loans, they’re paying older ones off, thanks to the trillions of dollars the federal government spent to cushion the financial blow from the pandemic.“There’s been this economic expansion coming out of what was a significant contraction,” said Bain Rumohr, an analyst covering North American banks at the credit rating firm Fitch. “And typically what would happen would be, yes, increased demand on the corporate side and on the consumer side. And that just has not manifested itself yet.”The lackluster demand for loans reflects the government’s success in protecting companies and households from ruin during the pandemic.Across two presidential administrations, the federal government embarked on a major program of borrowing and spending to help small businesses, large corporations and households weather the worst of the shock. Between March 2020 and May 2021, Congress appropriated about $4.7 trillion on such programs, through the passage of six pieces of Covid-19 relief legislation signed into law by President Donald J. Trump and President Biden.Much of that money has poured into the bank accounts of American households and companies. By the end of May, nearly $830 billion in stimulus check payments had been sent to individuals. Roughly $800 billion more was sent to businesses in the form of programs such as the Paycheck Protection Program. And about $570 billion was spent on extended and enhanced unemployment insurance benefits, according to data from the Government Accountability Office.[flash=200,200]It worked.[/b]While the downturn was steep, the coronavirus recession is the shortest on record, lasting a mere two months, and the economy has already more than recovered its losses.But for banks, that flood of government payments was a mixed blessing.It doubtlessly kept them from suffering losses on loans to individuals and companies that would have otherwise defaulted. But it has also resulted in much healthier bank account balances for both corporate and consumer America. Deposits in the commercial banking system are up nearly 30 percent since just before the pandemic, to roughly $17.3 trillion.To make money, banks have to reinvest those dollars that are at rest, but that’s proving to be difficult. Not only do companies and households have plenty of cash of their own, their desire to borrow has weakened as the Delta variant complicates reopening plans.Uncertainty about office reopenings seems to be slowing loan demand from commercial real estate developers, a normally lucrative source of loans. Other reliable sources of borrowing have also slowed down: Car dealerships, which take loans to keep their lots stocked, aren’t borrowing as much because supply chain snarls have weighed on automobile production.Banks have acknowledged their struggles to find attractive ways to deploy their deposits.Last month, Bank of America’s shares stumbled after it reported earnings that disappointed investors, in part because of a slower-than-expected recovery in loan balances. When asked by analysts about one profitable area where loan balances had declined — the high-interest-rate credit card balances that people don’t pay off every month — Bank of America’s chief executive, Brian Moynihan, explained the decline simply.“They just have more cash,” he said. “And so they paid off their credit cards, which is a completely responsible thing for them to do.”It was a common refrain. Wells Fargo experienced a decline in commercial lending during the second quarter, explaining that its customers “continued to have high levels of cash on hand.”Michael Santomassimo, Wells Fargo’s chief financial officer, told analysts that there were “green shoots” in certain industries, but that overall “demand has not yet picked up.”And M&T Bank, a Buffalo-based lender with a focus on the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, had fewer loans on its books at the end of the quarter as the bank struggled to find profitable places to put money.“Customer deposits are at all-time highs and grew faster than our ability to deploy them into assets,” Darren J. King, the bank’s chief financial officer, told analysts.And so the banks have turned to government bonds, where interest rates have been low for more than a decade. When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note briefly rose to around 1.75 percent in March and April, banks hungry for higher returns rushed to buy them — a scramble that helps explain why the spike in interest rates didn’t last, analysts say.Bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, and as long as banks have few better alternatives, they’ll keep buying bonds. And that could help keep a lid on rates for some time to come.“It is one of the things keeping rates lower,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a senior analyst covering the government bond market at TD Securities in New York.The dynamic is unlikely to change until companies and entrepreneurs have a better sense of certainty about future economic conditions, something the Delta variant is preventing at the moment by making the flow of goods to manufacturers and the flow of workers back to work difficult to predict.Companies certainly would like to invest more, said Mr. Goldberg, the Barclays analyst. “But given supply chain constraints and, I think, difficulty finding skilled workers, they’ve been slow to put that money to work.”