PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - HoT SuMMeR 2021

[Derby]

https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-boom-outlook-homebuyers-mortgages-inflation-price-surge-sales-2021-6

3 signs that American homebuyers are solving the housing crisis by refusing to pay crazy prices

-After months of surging prices, Americans seem to have had enough with the housing boom.
-With inventory near record lows and prices climbing at the fastest rate ever, buyers aren't biting.
-There are many signals that buyers are cooling the market on their own by saying no.

One question is plaguing prospective homebuyers in this red-hot housing market: When will prices start coming down? But the cure for high prices is high prices, to paraphrase a famous saying from the commodities world.

There's evidence that buyers are providing the cure, staying away from the high prices and cooling the market by collective action - or inaction.

Here are the three signs that American buyers are slowing the housing market's roll on their own.

1. Sales down from their peak

The start of the pandemic, and unprecedented easing from the Federal Reserve, sparked the housing boom. Sales of new and previously owned homes still sit well above pre-pandemic levels, but both have slowed from their fall peaks.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that in June, new home sales slowed to an annual rate of 708,000, slumping by 7% from the average rate in 2020.

Construction of new houses has stalled out too. The Census Bureau reported Tuesday morning that new housing starts slipped 5% between May and June, suggesting a slowdown in building. Bidding wars may also be slowing down. Redfin has seen a decline in the share of offers facing competition, with 72.1% of offers facing bidding wars in May, compared to just 65% in June.

The decline is powered, in part, by the massive shortage of homes across the US. With fewer homes to sell, the sales rate can't remain at elevated levels.

Still, the steady decline suggests the market boom could be leveling off. It also comes as median selling prices for new and existing homes sit at record highs, presenting an affordability problem for buyers just entering the market.

2. Buyer optimism waning

The wave of demand that powered the housing boom also seems to be crashing.

More than half of surveyed Americans referenced high home prices when evaluating the market, according to the University of Michigan's survey of consumer sentiment. The reading marks the biggest share ever recorded by the survey.

More broadly, 54% of respondents said it was a bad time to buy homes in May. That's the most pessimistic outlook since 1982.

Anecdotal evidence supports the data. Eighty-two percent of millennials said in May they're more likely to buy a fixer-upper due to affordability issues, according to a Bank of America survey. The generation is particularly vulnerable to the price melt-up. Millennials are nearing their peak homebuying age and already had their finances dented by the Great Recession. Unless price growth cools, the generation could be forced into cheaper alternatives to homeownership.

3. Mortgage interest sinks

It's not all bad for prospective homebuyers, though. Mortgage rates have only just risen from the record lows seen earlier in the year, offsetting some pressures from soaring prices.

Home loan data suggest the trade-off just isn't appealing enough for buyers. The Mortgage Bankers Association found that mortgage applications for new homes were down 23.8% in June from the previous year.

Forecasts suggest the trend is part of a larger correction. Mortgage applications surged through the second half of 2020, possibly reflecting a pulling forward of demand as borrowing costs tumbled. But loan purchases have fallen below their projected trend through much of 2021, Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac, wrote in a tweet.

To be sure, housing data is volatile, and recent readings suggest the buying surge will largely continue. Pending home sales soared 8% in May, trouncing the estimate for a 1% decline.

The long-term expectation, however, is for a widespread slowdown, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"The surge in pending home sales is a huge outlier," he said. "We still think sales will fall a bit further over the next few months, pushing up the months' supply numbers and taking some of the heat from surge in prices."

[newclo]

Buenos días

Y qué pasa con la inflación ? parece que en USA también están teniendo problemillas para importarla

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/11332313/07/21/El-TNote-se-rebela-contra-unos-analistas-que-preven-perdidas-del-3.html

Mil gracias a todos por las geniales aportaciones de los últimos días



Visi, faltas tú

@sudden... cuéntanos algo del dividendo digital, wen moon ?

[Mad Men]

https://hmijail.github.io/1-pixel-wealth/es/

Interesante.

Suben los actibos!!!!



La desigualdad en EE.UU está adquiriendo proporciones grotescas.

[sudden and sharp]

No sé que credibilidad darle al Daily Mail... pero las fotos parecen hablar por si solas.

"Pingdemic"... la nueva ¿realidad?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9809593/Pingdemic-crisis-deepens-Supermarket-shelves-food-supply-chains-start-fail.html
Desperate supermarkets hire more staff to beat the pingdemic: Iceland targets 2,000 temps to keep stores open as shelves empty across UK with meat, bottled water and ice cream in short supply




Ni pescado británico, oiga... 

[Derby]

Hace ya muchos años, estudié la asignatura de Derecho Internacional Privado en una universidad británica y debo decir que el concepto de Derecho Internacional en el Reino Unido es bastante "fluido"...

https://www.ft.com/content/c82a5db9-fdff-4a43-a017-915c8e16b3b5

https://todayuknews.com/economy/uk-sets-collision-course-with-eu-under-plans-to-redraw-brexit-deal/

UK sets collision course with EU under plans to redraw Brexit deal

The UK will on Wednesday put itself on a collision course with Brussels by unveiling a new set of demands that would radically overhaul post-Brexit trading arrangements between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

In a move that officials called a “wholesale change of approach”, Lord David Frost, Cabinet Office minister, will outline a strategy that seeks to eliminate most of the checks on the Irish Sea trade border that came into force in January.

And in a warning that Britain could suspend the Northern Ireland protocol in its Brexit deal with the EU if the bloc does not give way, Frost will claim the UK is already within its rights to activate the Article 16 override clause in the agreement.(...)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/21/uk-substantially-rewrite-northern-ireland-brexit-protocol

UK says it wants to substantially rewrite Northern Ireland Brexit protocol
Blueprint for alternative arrangement published as sources say protocol was flawed at conception

The UK has launched an audacious bid to rewrite a key plank of the Brexit deal, saying the Northern Ireland protocol was flawed at conception but served its purpose to get the UK out of the EU as “one country”.

The European Commission immediately ruled out a renegotiation of the deal, which was trumpeted by Boris Johnson as a solution to the Irish border impasse two years ago. The commission is understood to be open to some changes on the special arrangements for Northern Ireland, however.

EU officials expressed exasperation at the UK’s move, unveiled in a 28-page command paper by the Brexit minister, David Frost, on Wednesday. He told peers the protocol was unsustainable and said the UK “cannot go on as we are” given the “ongoing febrile political climate” in Northern Ireland.

With supermarkets warning they may pull out of the region unless there are changes, Lord Frost warned that the “burden” on shoppers and manufacturers would get worse without significant changes.

The proposals centre on four main issues, which would involve rewriting of articles 5 and 12 of the protocol:

-Remove all customs checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain but introduce a light-touch regime whereby businesses would register their trade and agree to inspections of their supply chains.

-End the role of EU institutions in the enforcement of the protocol.

-Introduce “a full dual regulatory regime” that would allow goods to circulate in Northern Ireland if they comply with either UK or EU standards.

-Pass new legislation to introduce penalties for traders that do not comply.

The UK believes the changes would remove barriers to supermarkets, online shoppers and manufacturers, and secure the future of British supermarkets in Northern Ireland.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/us-german-deal-on-russias-nord-stream-2-pipeline-will-undermine-national-security-pompeo

US, German deal on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline will ‘really undermine’ national security: Pompeo

US, Germany reach a deal that allows for the completion of the controversial pipeline

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo slammed the Biden administration on Wednesday for the agreement with Germany, which would allow for the completion of the controversial Russian Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, arguing that it would "really undermine American national security." 

(...) With the new deal, Russia will be able to double the volume of natural gas it exports to Germany beneath the Baltic Sea.

Pompeo called the deal "absolutely tragic."

[Derby]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/treasury-rental-aid-june-eviction-moratorium

Treasury distributed just 6.5% of available rental aid in first half of 2021 as millions face eviction

Officials doled out just $3 billion over the course of the first half of the year

State and local officials distributed $1.5 billion in rental assistance last month, the Treasury Department said Wednesday, as the government struggles to deliver the money before an eviction moratorium expires at the end of July.

Officials doled out just $3 billion over the course of the first half of the year, or roughly 6.6% of the $45 billion program intended to keep millions of renters in their homes. The Treasury Department said it served 290,000 households in June, up from 160,000 the previous month.

In total, it has provided relief to a fraction of the 1.2 million households that have reported being "very likely to face eviction in the next two months," the department said in a news release.

"State and local governments must do more to accelerate aid to struggling renters and expand programs to meet the scale of assistance needed," the Treasury said, adding: "While some state and local programs are increasingly reaching households in need, others lag far behind, and many programs have just launched in recent weeks. Money is available in every state to help renters at risk of eviction – and the urgency has never been greater."

There are some 110 million Americans living in rental households; an estimated 11 million renters – or about 15% – are behind on their rent and at risk of eviction, according to an analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

At the end of June, the Biden administration extended a federal pause on evictions by one month, delaying the end of the eviction moratorium – which was poised to expire on June 30 – until July 31, 2021. But it is intended to be the final extension of the moratorium, according to a news release from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.(...)

[Maloserá]

Os dejo un link a una publicación del comité de asuntos económicos de la cámara de los Lores, que se llama
'Quantitative easing: a dangerous addiction?'

Curiosamente, entre los miembros de ese comité está Lord Skidelsky, que es el biógrafo de Keynes, Mervyn King, que fué el gobernador del Bank of England durante la crisis de 2008, y un consejero externo de la misma entidad.

La publicación está bien, analiza los efectos distributivos, la falta de control parlamentario sobre lo que en realidad es política fiscal y la impresión general de que ni el Bank of England ni el ministerio de economía saben al final las consecuencias (ni como salir del embrollo) con un mínimo de certidumbre. En algunas cosas recuerda aquella sentencia del tribunal constitucional alemán.

Copio debajo un párrafo la mar de claro, del capítulo que resume las conclusiones y recomendaciones.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5802/ldselect/ldeconaf/42/4202.htm

18.There is an increasing risk that central banks are facing a “no-exit paradigm” from quantitative easing. No central bank has managed successfully to reverse its asset purchases over the medium to long-term, and the key issue facing central banks as they look to halt or reverse quantitative easing is whether it will trigger panic in financial markets that spills over into the real economy.

P.S. un quote de Ambrose del Daily Telegraph, que explica el riesgo que trae el QE en UK. No se si es similar al sistema que usa el BCE o la Reserva Federal. (El 'Treasury' es el ministerio de economía. Los £bn son billones 'anglosajones' de libras, o sea, mil millones)

'In reality, QE as conducted is an asset swap from a long maturity to a short maturity. The greater the stock of bond purchases - soon to be 40pc of GDP - the greater the risk for the Bank of England since it pays interest at Bank rate on excess reserves (as a side-effect of QE) to the commercial banks. The Treasury indemnifies the Bank for losses.

Each one percentage point rise in the rate costs the state £20bn or 0.8pc of GDP'

[Saturio]

No sé que credibilidad darle al Daily Mail... pero las fotos parecen hablar por si solas.

"Pingdemic"... la nueva ¿realidad?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9809593/Pingdemic-crisis-deepens-Supermarket-shelves-food-supply-chains-start-fail.html
Desperate supermarkets hire more staff to beat the pingdemic: Iceland targets 2,000 temps to keep stores open as shelves empty across UK with meat, bottled water and ice cream in short supply




Ni pescado británico, oiga... 

Bueno, no hay que fiarse mucho. Aquí en marzo de 2020 también se podían sacar fotos como esas, a unas determinadas horas en una determinada cadena unos pocos determinados días.

Por otro lado si preguntas a un empresario o gestor de una fuerza laboral de cierto tamaño, por supuesto que te va a decir que sí, que está teniendo problemas para gestionar el asunto. Un problema que no tenía y ahora tiene.

Al final lo que cuenta son los números. Dicen que en una semana se enviaron 500.000 recomendaciones de confinamiento sobre una fuerza laboral de ¿casi 40 millones?. No es neutro pero no es el caos. Evidentemente si tienes un equipo pequeño y un poco de mala suerte...Otra cosa es que el asunto vaya a más, claro y se prolongue por más tiempo.

[Maloserá]

Por lo de las estanterías en UK, yo he visto problemas prácticos de papeleo importando desde el continente. Por ejemplo, he pagado un doble IVA.

En Londres productos nacionales sigo encontrando los mismos. Al lado de casa encuentro gazpacho buenísimo (para mí pero soy gallego así que no soy un experto) - lo envasa Brindisa pero creo que el producto original es de Alvalle. Es imposible encontrar gazpacho envasado en invierno en Galicia. Y jamón del requetebueno igual. Pagándolo claro.

El principal problema en este momento en Londres es personal de hostelería. Del problema del protocolo de Irlanda del Norte me he enterado por El País, en primera plana. Después lo encontré en prensa británica pero bastante más abajo. j

Usar el Daily Mail para conocer la realidad británica es como ver programas de Jorge Javier Vázquez para conocer la realidad nacional. Que quieren decir, que se va a pasar hambre por el traceo de contactos?  Entre el Brexit y el Covid deberíamos habernos muerto cientos de veces. Y yo lo que veo son unos zorros en Londres que vienen al jardín de noche, que deben tener problemas con el colesterol alto, de lo rollizos que están de comer las barbaridades de comida que se tiran.

Si es que no debería ni contestar pero ejque a veces ... 'no se que credibilidad hay que darle al Daily Mail' 'fotos que hablan por sí solas' 

[kapi59ttp]

La inflación ha muerto y todo residente en la eurozona que diga lo contrario o es un perdedor resentido o es un hijo de la gran puta, dennos licencia para decirlo así. Se están cocinando un puñado de datos de inflación un poco subidos de tono para que los ganchos del timo salgan en trompa a cacarear que la inflación ha resucitado. Es el típico final de fiesta.

Lo primero de todo indicar que hablo desde mi ignorancia económica, pero he ido recopilando unos cuantos datos que creo indicadores importantes que manifiestan que de momento no sólo se trata de un puñado de datos cocinados, y que ahora mismo estamos así:

Alimentación:
La subida del 40% del precio de los alimentos desata el pánico a una ola de inflación
https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/11252726/06/21/La-subida-del-40-del-precio-de-los-alimentos-desata-el-panico-a-una-ola-de-inflacion.html

Productos de consumo:
Las empresas españolas realizan la mayor subida de precios desde el año 2000
El tirón de la demanda, sobre todo nacional, y el encarecimiento de las materias primas lleva a las compañías españolas a subir los precios de sus productos y servicios
https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/empresas-subida-precios.html

Materias primas
1- Steel prices have tripled. Now Bank of America is sounding the alarm
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/06/investing/steel-shortage-stocks-bubble/index.html

Los dos siguientes puntos no tengo el enlace a la noticia completa, pero me copié la imagen

2- Costes de materiales para construcción




Flete de contenedores




Energía:
La nueva factura se estrena con el precio de la luz un 50% más caro que hace un año
https://www.elindependiente.com/economia/2021/05/31/la-nueva-factura-se-estrena-con-el-precio-de-la-luz-un-50-mas-caro-que-hace-un-ano/

Creo que es mas que evidente que todos estos factores inciden de forma directa en el aumento de precio de cualquier producto o servicio.
Mientras los gastos se incrementan de forma desbocada, los ingresos se estancan o se reducen.
Si esto no inflación o estanflación, que alguien me explique por favor qué es.
Gracias y disculpas por mi ignorancia.

[Saturio]

Habrá que ver si todas esas tensiones inflacionarias son duraderas.

Evidentemente, los Turelianos, dirán que detrás de esos números lo que está es que todo se está acabando.

Yo creo que lo que ocurre es la reactivación (raruna) de la actividad después de haber cortado por lo sano con la pandemia. Las mascarillas estaban carísimas en primavera de 2020, hace unas semanas literalmente te las regalaban y según lo que pase igual volvemos a liarla. Creo que el público general no tiene ni idea de lo que estas cosas significan aguas arriba en las cadenas de suministro, donde se está determinando (vía precios) si la producción de una determinada fibra va a producir faldas o mascarillas.

En serio, los efectos de estas cosas son inimaginables. Durante la pandemia era imposible comprar software de gestión de RH porque todas las empresas tenían hasta a el portero vendiendo y trabajando la gestión de los ERTES. Todas las "tecnológicas" se pusieron a vender temas relacionados con el teletrabajo y era imposible pedirles cualquier otra cosa.

Pensad lo que supone mandar a tierra a prácticamente toda la flota aérea comercial de pasajeros. No necesitas a nadie en el handling de equipajes pero necesitas a gente en las cosas técnicas de la parada y conservación. Y eso significa que los tipos que venden tornillos de repuesto para el handling están parados pero los que fabrican cubiertas para motores de avión no llegan ni de lejos. Y hay que tomar decisiones en la incertidumbre. El tipo de las cubiertas se está pensando si tiene que comprar dos máquinas más y si le caben en la nave o si esto se acaba en un mes. Y su proveedor de máquinas esperando a que se decida...

[Maloserá]

Una cosa que me ha sorprendido... los billetes de avión de Ryanair siguen tirados de precio. Pero los coches de alquiler en aeropuerto han subido, así a ojo, un 300%    Las dos semanas en el aeropuerto de Santiago costaban hacia 100 euros (coche cutre con compañía de alquiler cutre) a 200 (compañía  y coche medio). En esto podéis confiar mi memoria más que las estadísticas del FED. Si quiero coche para estas vacaciones, entre 300 y 600 euros para cada categoría respectivamente.

Me sale bastante más barato coger taxis para todo desde que llego a Galicia el sábado hasta que vuelvo en dos semanas después, que alquilar un coche.

No se cual será la explicación. Han vendido parte del parque de coches de alquiler durante la crisis.

Puede que los aumentos sean temporales. Pero hay dos cosas que tienen un peso tremendo en la inflación futura: la inflación actual y las expectativas de inflación. Y están inflando las segundas.

[Derby]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/evergrande-s-worsening-crisis-piles-pressure-on-founder-to-act-fast-1.1631612

Evergrande’s Worsening Crisis Piles Pressure on Founder to Act Fast



(Bloomberg) -- Pressure is mounting on China Evergrande Group’s billionaire founder as fears of a default by the world’s most indebted developer drive away banks and send the company’s bonds tumbling to record lows.

The latest blow to Hui Ka Yan’s property empire came on Wednesday, when at least four of Hong Kong’s largest banks stopped providing mortgages to buyers of Evergrande’s unfinished apartments in the city. That followed a slew of reports in recent weeks about wary Chinese lenders and overdue payments to suppliers.

Analysts say the exodus is likely to continue unless Hui accelerates asset sales, brings in new strategic investors or secures a bailout from Chinese authorities. Prospects for the latter have become more uncertain in recent years as Xi Jinping’s government tries to rein in moral hazard. Yet the systemic risk Evergrande poses to China’s $14 trillion economy means that some form of state support can’t be ruled out.

“It’s pretty clear that the market has already lost confidence, judging by both equity and bond prices,” said Jennifer James, a portfolio manager of emerging-market credit at Janus Henderson Investors, which oversees about $80 billion in fixed-income assets.

“However, the company still has options,” said James, who holds a “tiny” position in Evergrande bonds. “In order to restore confidence, they need to accelerate asset sales and/or bring in a strategic investor.”

The developer’s offshore notes due 2025 fell 2.6 cents on the dollar to 46.8 cents as of 9:37 a.m. in Hong Kong, set for a record low. Bonds of other junk-rated Chinese companies also fell. Evergrande’s stock was volatile at the open, rising 2.8% after the company said on Thursday that it resolved a dispute with China Guangfa Bank Co. over repayment of a 132 million yuan ($20 million) loan that had spooked markets earlier this week.

HSBC Holdings Plc, Bank of China Ltd.’s Hong Kong unit, Hang Seng Bank and Bank of East Asia were among lenders that suspended new mortgages for Evergrande’s two projects under construction in Hong Kong, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (Asia) did the same, the South China Morning Post reported, without citing anyone.

The mortgage halts “could be a fresh sign banks are protecting themselves as they’re increasingly worried about Evergrande,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Daniel Fan and William Hau wrote in a note on Wednesday. The development may push Evergrande toward more “radical action,” such as selling a stake in itself to a state-owned Chinese company or pursuing more wide-ranging asset sales, the analysts wrote.

Evergrande said in a statement on Wednesday it still has good relationships with many banks in Hong Kong, so its local operations won’t be impacted. The developer said it’s sticking with plans for its Hong Kong projects, and is confident on completing its Emerald Bay II development in August as scheduled. Evergrande’s other construction project in Hong Kong, The Vertex, is slated to finish by the end of October. More than half of its 414 units have been sold.

A major payment failure by Evergrande could have severe repercussions for China’s financial system, eroding confidence in other highly leveraged property companies, shadow lenders and potentially even some banks. Chinese authorities and state-run banks have so far kept quiet about their plans for Evergrande, leaving investors to guess at whether they will provide support.

Bloomberg reported last month that several large Chinese banks have pared their lending to Evergrande, though others were allowing it to roll over some credit lines on concern that a large reduction in lending to the developer could destabilize the financial system.

Some investors have looked to billionaire Zhang Jindong’s Suning group of companies as one potential road map for Evergrande. Zhang lost control of Suning.com, his troubled retail unit, after securing a $1.36 billion investment this month from a consortium that included funds linked to governments in the company’s home province of Jiangsu.

Officials from China’s top financial regulator told Hui in a private meeting at the end of June that he should solve his company’s debt problems as quickly as possible, emphasizing the need to avoid major economic shocks, people familiar with the matter said earlier this month. Hui told the officials he’s been speaking with local governments as he looks for a solution, one of the people said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive information.

“Evergrande’s liquidity is increasingly and from all fronts under pressure,” said Michel Lowy, chief executive officer of Hong Kong-based alternative asset manager SC Lowy. “This could pave the way for some form of restructuring or debt extension talks sooner than later.”

[Mad Men]

Una cosa que me ha sorprendido... los billetes de avión de Ryanair siguen tirados de precio. Pero los coches de alquiler en aeropuerto han subido, así a ojo, un 300%    Las dos semanas en el aeropuerto de Santiago, 100 euros (coche cutre con compañía de alquiler cutre) a 200 (compañía  y coche medio). En esto podéis confiar mi memoria más que las estadísticas del FED

Me sale bastante más barato coger taxis para todo desde que llego a Galicia el sábado hasta que vuelvo en dos semanas después, que alquilar un coche.

No se cual será la explicación. Han vendido parte del parque de coches de alquiler durante la crisis.

Puede que los aumentos sean temporales. Pero hay dos cosas que tienen un peso tremendo en la inflación futura: la inflación actual y las expectativas de inflación. Y están inflando las segundas.

Buenos días Maloserá.

Un comentario que hiciste me hizo pensar.

Mencionaste que la administración pública británica es mucho más eficiente que las empresas privadas del país, algo que a mí me suena a marciano, pues aquí en España tenemos la percepción de que es todo lo contrario y de hecho yo lo tengo comprobado por los funcionarios o trabajadores públicos de mi familia.

Mi pregunta es:
A grandes rasgos y simplificando mucho, en que se diferencian las dos administraciones?

Saludos.