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Cita de: wanderer en Agosto 27, 2021, 19:28:40 pmCita de: senslev en Agosto 27, 2021, 19:05:46 pmNo veo que sea tan distinto, los dos coinciden sobre lo más importante: decrecimiento, es decir, consumir menos, es decir, bajar el gasto de energía por habitante. Cita de: wanderer en Agosto 27, 2021, 18:51:24 pmAunque sea un tanto off-topic, creo que lo se cuenta en esta entrevista cabe aquí (renovables, decrecimiento, etc, y parece bastante realista y desmitificador). Dejo el enlace y ustedes opinan:CitarVACLAV SMILCIENTÍFICO"Vivimos en un sistema irracional y la Tierra no puede soportarlo"https://www.abc.es/xlsemanal/personajes/cambio-climatico-energias-renovables-transicion-energetica-vaclav-smil.htmlTiene una visión muy distinta a la Turiel (quién a mí me parece un iluminado), por cierto.Pues hay uno que a mí parece esencial: V. Smil sostiene que el pico del petróleo ni está ni se lo espera, cosa diametralmente opuesta a lo que sostiene Turiel. Como consecuencia, defiende el decrecimiento no porque haya un cuello de botella de suministro energético, sino por razones básicamente medioambientales.No lo dice explícitamente, pero cuando te dice que la Tierra no puede suministrar todos los recursos necesarios para mantener el nivel de vida derrochador y poco eficiente al que se ha llegado, quiere decir que existe un límite en los recursos y ahí se incluyen los combustibles fósiles. Si el petróleo fuese infinito no hablaría de ello o para ser más concreto, no se si se hablaría de ello. En cualquier caso te venden la transición energética por motivos medioambientales pero no te dicen que hay un límite en los recursos necesarios para seguir con el nivel de vida actual, ¿si hubiese recursos infinitos habría transición energética?. No lo creo.
Cita de: senslev en Agosto 27, 2021, 19:05:46 pmNo veo que sea tan distinto, los dos coinciden sobre lo más importante: decrecimiento, es decir, consumir menos, es decir, bajar el gasto de energía por habitante. Cita de: wanderer en Agosto 27, 2021, 18:51:24 pmAunque sea un tanto off-topic, creo que lo se cuenta en esta entrevista cabe aquí (renovables, decrecimiento, etc, y parece bastante realista y desmitificador). Dejo el enlace y ustedes opinan:CitarVACLAV SMILCIENTÍFICO"Vivimos en un sistema irracional y la Tierra no puede soportarlo"https://www.abc.es/xlsemanal/personajes/cambio-climatico-energias-renovables-transicion-energetica-vaclav-smil.htmlTiene una visión muy distinta a la Turiel (quién a mí me parece un iluminado), por cierto.Pues hay uno que a mí parece esencial: V. Smil sostiene que el pico del petróleo ni está ni se lo espera, cosa diametralmente opuesta a lo que sostiene Turiel. Como consecuencia, defiende el decrecimiento no porque haya un cuello de botella de suministro energético, sino por razones básicamente medioambientales.
No veo que sea tan distinto, los dos coinciden sobre lo más importante: decrecimiento, es decir, consumir menos, es decir, bajar el gasto de energía por habitante. Cita de: wanderer en Agosto 27, 2021, 18:51:24 pmAunque sea un tanto off-topic, creo que lo se cuenta en esta entrevista cabe aquí (renovables, decrecimiento, etc, y parece bastante realista y desmitificador). Dejo el enlace y ustedes opinan:CitarVACLAV SMILCIENTÍFICO"Vivimos en un sistema irracional y la Tierra no puede soportarlo"https://www.abc.es/xlsemanal/personajes/cambio-climatico-energias-renovables-transicion-energetica-vaclav-smil.htmlTiene una visión muy distinta a la Turiel (quién a mí me parece un iluminado), por cierto.
Aunque sea un tanto off-topic, creo que lo se cuenta en esta entrevista cabe aquí (renovables, decrecimiento, etc, y parece bastante realista y desmitificador). Dejo el enlace y ustedes opinan:CitarVACLAV SMILCIENTÍFICO"Vivimos en un sistema irracional y la Tierra no puede soportarlo"https://www.abc.es/xlsemanal/personajes/cambio-climatico-energias-renovables-transicion-energetica-vaclav-smil.htmlTiene una visión muy distinta a la Turiel (quién a mí me parece un iluminado), por cierto.
VACLAV SMILCIENTÍFICO"Vivimos en un sistema irracional y la Tierra no puede soportarlo"https://www.abc.es/xlsemanal/personajes/cambio-climatico-energias-renovables-transicion-energetica-vaclav-smil.html
Para quien tenga ganas, y le interese:“ Amir Sufi presenting our new paper on inequality and the interest rate at the Jackson Hole symposiumBottom line: Rise in inequality is a powerful reason for the fall in interest rates, and demographics not as much”https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/8337/JH_paper_Sufi_3.pdf
Este linux no me permite seleccionar texto en el PDF.
Cita de: saturno en Agosto 28, 2021, 14:51:46 pmEste linux no me permite seleccionar texto en el PDF.Los PDFs siempre son incómodos de manejar, lo más fácil suele ser convertilos a otro formato en vez de pelearse con los lectores de PDF.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/cori-bush-democrats-congress-eviction-moratorium_n_61293881e4b06e5d80cd39b4On Thursday, the Supreme Court blocked the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s moratorium on evictions, put in place to protect renters from being evicted from their homes in the middle of a pandemic. ...Lawmakers warned that millions are at risk of eviction after the Supreme Court struck down the CDC’s protections for renters amid the COVID-19 pandemic.Meanwhile, a rental assistance program put in place by Congress has so far failed to distribute billions in aid: of the $46 billion Congress allocated for renters as part of the federal response to the pandemic, state and local governments had only disbursed $5.1 billion as of last month. Evictions disproportionately impact Black and Latinx people, particularly women. Over 14 million renters in the U.S. reported to the U.S. Census Bureau in early August that they had “slight” or no confidence in being able to pay this month’s rent.
Here’s what globalisation has done to inflationWe’re not sure we buy Powell’s argument that this trend survive the pandemic unscathed.Lots of words will be written about what Grandmaster Jay had to say about tapering at Jackson Hole. We’re not going to add to the chatter.Instead, we want to draw your attention to another aspect of his speech: the chart below. The graphic shows that the cost of durables, often made abroad, has persistently fallen over the past 25 years — by an average of 1.9 per cent a year, according to Powell. At least, up until the pandemic began. Inflation in services, which are often produced domestically, meanwhile, has increased every year.It’s a great example of the disinflationary impact of globalisation in the US and, indeed, elsewhere.For reference, here’s what’s happened to world trade and global GDP over broadly the same period:One part of Powell’s speech that surprised us was his confidence that global forces would remain as deflationary post pandemic: (our emphasis)CitarThe pattern of low inflation likely reflects sustained disinflationary forces, including technology, globalisation and perhaps demographic factors, as well as a stronger and more successful commitment by central banks to maintain price stability . . . . . . While the underlying global disinflationary factors are likely to evolve over time, there is little reason to think that they have suddenly reversed or abated. It seems more likely that they will continue to weigh on inflation as the pandemic passes into history.This doesn’t square with what we’re hearing in trade circles. A report produced by US bank Citi and the Economist Intelligence Unit, which came out earlier this week, for instance, was full of examples of executives saying they want to diversify their supply chains, or move production closer to home. That won’t come cheap.Of course, a lot of this is just talk. But we’re nowhere near as confident as the Fed seems to be that executives won’t at some point start putting their money where their mouth is.
The pattern of low inflation likely reflects sustained disinflationary forces, including technology, globalisation and perhaps demographic factors, as well as a stronger and more successful commitment by central banks to maintain price stability . . . . . . While the underlying global disinflationary factors are likely to evolve over time, there is little reason to think that they have suddenly reversed or abated. It seems more likely that they will continue to weigh on inflation as the pandemic passes into history.
Es muy diferente pretender que el pico del petróleo ya pasó hace años y que por ello, el decrecentismo es algo que viene forzado por las circunstancias de escasez de fuentes primarias de energía (que viene a ser la postura de Turiel), a lo cual con gran cinismo se trata de vender la moto decrecentista con una argumentación bastante cínica pro-medio ambiente, frente a la posición del Sr. V. Smil, que no cree en tal escasez, sino que hay que decrecer por todo el perjuicio medioambiental que causa. Me cuesta mucho asumir también esta postura, pero la veo mucho más ética y sincera que la de Turiel, que insisto en que parece un iluminado y que además, más allá de la razón o falta de ella que pueda tener, lo único que aporta es una visión absolutamente deprimente, paralizante, y que no aporta solución alguna (él no cree que sea viable una implementación de energías verdes alternativas, pues su desarrollo pasa por hacer primero un uso intensivo de fuentes primarias de energía que serán imposibles de satisfacer sin el uso de un petróleo supuestamente ya en declive).En fin, la postura de V. Smil me parece más positiva y proactiva; la de Turiel, en cambio radical, paralizante y ante todo, estéril, así como muy cínica.
Exhausted and without hope, East Asian youth are 'lying flat'As a high schooler growing up in a small town in eastern China, Li Xiaoming dreamed of moving to a big city where he could have a better life.Now 24, Li just wants to take a rest.Across the country, young people like Li — who requested to be referred to by that pseudonym because he fears career and political repercussions for his views — are getting tired of the fierce competition for college and jobs, and the relentless rat race once they get hired.They're now embracing a new philosophy they've called "tang ping," or "lying flat."The phrase apparently traces its origins to a post earlier this year in an online forum run by the Chinese search giant Baidu. The author of that now-deleted post suggested that instead of working one's entire life chasing after an apartment and traditional family values, people should pursue a simple life.In other words, just "lie flat."Talk of "lying flat" has spread rapidly through China as young people contend with intense competition for the most attractive jobs, especially in tech and other white collar fields. As the country cracks down on private enterprise, meanwhile, the public has grown wary of what many see as a grueling work culture. Commonplace at many tech firms and startups are demands for people to work nearly double — or more — the number of hours in a typical work week.Interest in "lying flat" has exploded on social media and attracted the interest of censors, who in some cases have restricted the use of the term. Several state media outlets have also pushed back against the conversation, suggesting that young people should strive to work hard instead.This type of phenomenon, though, isn't limited to China. Across East Asia, young people say they've become exhausted by the prospect of working hard for seemingly little reward.In South Korea, young people are giving up on marriage and home ownership. In Japan, they are so pessimistic about the country's future that they are eschewing material possessions."Young people are very burnt out," said Lim Woon-taek, a professor of sociology at Keimyung University in South Korea. "They don't know why they have to work so hard."As more young people grow frustrated with relentless pressure, they say they want to — and in some cases are — giving up conventional rites of passage, such as getting married or having children.Where the young people just want to lie flatLi spent every day in high school studying. On his college entrance exam, his score placed him in the top 0.37% among all high school seniors in Shandong province. He's studying for his master's degree at one of the top three law schools in China, and was hoping to get a job at a prestigious international law firm based in Beijing.But when he applied for graduate jobs and internships in March, he got rejected from more than 20 international law firms in China. Instead, he settled for a trainee position at a domestic law firm."The competition between me and other interns was so intense," said Li. "When I see those students who are still trying to go to prestigious international law firms, I feel exhausted and unwilling to contend with them anymore."The "tang ping" lifestyle has started to resonate with him, he said. Tired of trying to get to the top, Li has decided to "lie flat" by doing the bare minimum at his internship."Many people who were better than me were working harder than me, so I felt anxious," he said. "'Tang ping' is ... contending with the status quo, not being ambitious, not working so hard."Supporters of the phrase have also developed a philosophy that extends beyond the initial Baidu post. In one group on the social platform Douban, someone posted a manifesto describing the characteristics of the "tang ping" lifestyle."I will not marry, buy a house or have children, I will not buy a bag or wear a watch," the "lying flat manifesto" read. "I will slack off at work ... I am a blunt sword to boycott consumerism."That group was eventually banned this spring, after attracting thousands of participants. A hashtag for the term was also censored on Weibo, China's version of Twitter.The pressures facing young people in China are high. A record 9.09 million students graduated from university or college this year, according to data from China's Ministry of Education.Even after finding jobs, many workers have bemoaned intense work schedules, especially at major tech firms. The culture, known as "996," refers to working 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week. The excessive work culture was blasted by China's top court on Thursday. It called out companies across a range of industries it said violated labor rules, including an unnamed courier firm that told employees to work 996 hours.A lot of young people are working for such companies, according to Terence Chong, an associate professor of economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK)."They compete with each other," he said. So even if not everyone wants to work such hours, they may feel compelled to do so to keep up.Those stresses aren't limited to the tech sector. Tony Tang — a 36-year-old university professor in Guangdong — said he was tired from working 12 hours a day, seven days a week."I think I'm too overworked," said Tang, who requested to be referred to by the pseudonym Tony Tang because he was afraid of facing repercussions for his views. "They just regard working hard as one kind of things for Chinese people to do."The rising cost of housing is adding to the pressure. As measured by square meter, the average cost of a unit in a residential building in Beijing more than doubled in the six years to 2019, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. Over the same period, the average annual disposable income in the city increased 66%."No matter how hard they work, it is very difficult to buy [a] house," said Chong of CUHK. "In a society [where] you see some hope there, if you work hard, then you can ... buy [a] house and so on, then you can work hard. But the thing is if you cannot see any hope, then you want to 'tang ping.'"Opting out of dating, marriage and kidsWhile "tang ping" is a relatively new trend in China, young people in other parts of East Asia say they've been struggling with similar frustrations for years.At just 22, Shin Ye-rim has given up on ever getting married, giving birth or owning a home."I think the biggest problem is that house prices are going up too severely," said Shin, who studies at the prestigious Yonsei University in Seoul. She added that she didn't know if she could financially support a child.In 2011, a South Korean newspaper coined the word "sampo" — literally "give up three" — to describe a generation who has given up on dating, marriage and having kids.n 2014, interpersonal relationships and home ownership were added to that list, giving rise to the "opo" generation, or "give up five." More sacrifices have been added since then, eventually giving rise to the term "n-po," referring to the nth degree.In 2017, 74% of South Korean adults said they gave up at least one thing — meaning marriage, dating, leisure activities, home ownership or another aspect of life — because of economic difficulties, according to a survey of 3,880 people conducted by job portal Incruit.As in other countries, pressures on South Korea's job market have increased, especially during the coronavirus pandemic. Last year, South Korea's unemployment rate rose to 4%, its highest level in 19 years, according to government website Statistics Korea. The data also showed that 9% of people between the ages of 15 and 29 were unemployed."The job market is so poor that it becomes hard to get a job," said Lim, the Keimyung University professor. "Because there are no jobs, you are less able to plan a future-oriented life."As in China, apartment prices are skyrocketing. Median prices for an apartment in July were higher than at any point since KB Kookmin Bank began keeping records in December 2008. (...)