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An energy crisis is coming, but I’d rather be in Brexit Britain than the EUEurope is at the mercy of Russia's gas supply, and a showdown with Brussels looks certain to blow upEurope’s energy crunch has returned with a winter vengeance. We are back to warnings of power rationing and industrial stoppage, a looming disaster for the European Commission and the British government alike.Vladimir Putin has tightened his stranglehold on gas, driving up futures contracts for January by 40pc in barely a week. Prices are nearing the levels of September’s panic. The difference this time is that the underlying geopolitical crisis is an order of magnitude more serious.Russia has mobilized 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border in what Nato calls a “large and unusual build-up” with hostile intent. American and British intelligence officials last week showed Ukraine’s top brass satellite images and electronic intercepts indicating a “high probability” of military attack this winter, led by the sorts of Spetsnaz special forces deployed in Crimea.Mr Putin has already prepared the ground for the perfect energy squeeze. He took advantage of the world’s post-pandemic gas shortage over the late summer to withhold the top-up flows needed to replenish Europe’s depleted storage.Other than short bursts of extra supply, almost as a tease, Gazprom has been delivering minimum contract volumes. Inventories are currently 52pc in Austria, 61pc in Holland, 69pc in Germany at a time of year when they should be near 100pc.The Kremlin is now closing the trap. Energy analysts ICIS says Gazprom booked “nothing” for December through the Mallnow metering point on the Polish-Belarus pipeline. Europe is facing a supply-deficit of 32m cubic meters a day. By ill luck, Algerian flows have been cut by an intractable dispute with Morocco.“It is hard to know whether Putin is leveraging the energy weapon to try to reverse Europe’s green deal or whether this is really about preparations for an attack on Ukraine,” said Professor Alan Riley from the Atlantic Council.“But he has to be careful because if he plays this card, he can never play it again. Europe will redesign its energy system and stop buying Russian gas altogether,” he said.Whatever Mr Putin’s plans for Ukraine, possibly seizure of the Donbass and the Black Sea coast as far as Odessa, a parallel showdown with Brussels over the Baltic Nord Stream 2 pipeline looks certain to escalate.German regulators have suspended the certification process because Gazprom was trying to get around EU monopoly laws. They had no choice: a stitch-up had become impossible. “Poland would have issued an immediate injunction to stop it at the European Court,” said Prof Riley.The Greens are about to enter the German government and they think Nord Stream is scandalous, Kremlin imperialism with no purpose other than diverting existing gas flows from the Ukraine pipeline and depriving Kiev of its means of economic self-defence. Mr Putin will not back down lightly since Nord Stream 2 is central to his drive to alter the strategic balance of power in Europe, and overturn the post-Cold War settlement. The chances are that he will keep stoking the gas crisis until a frozen Europe begs for mercy, or tears itself apart.Thierry Bros, a former energy security planner for the French government, said Brussels has stumbled blindly into a Kremlin ambush. “Putin set his master plan in motion last July and August. I didn’t believe it at first but now there can be no doubt. He told us we’d be getting more gas in October but it never came, and November has been worse, and now there’s going to be nothing through Mallnow,” he said.“Europe has failed to follow the Churchillian precept of security of supply and has got itself into an existential crisis of its own making out of sheer incompetence. This could cause a break-down of the EU’s integrated energy system and lead to the collapse of the whole bloc,” he said.EU states resorted instantly to health nationalism at the onset of Covid-19. Germany blocked exports of PPE equipment without compunction, even within the single market and after the goods had been paid for.Mr Bros said the lip-service pieties of the EU energy market are likely to prove just as hollow if push comes to shove. Countries may invoke national security laws and hoard whatever energy they have rather than feeding it into the common pool.“We’re running into a presidential election in France. People will scream if our industries are being shut and we’re told we have to accept rationing in order to heat the Germans,” he said.For the British to rely on energy interconnectors from Europe in such circumstances shows touching faith in paper contracts. The UK imports little Russian gas but that is less reassuring than it sounds. It is part of Europe’s integrated nexus, and cross-Channel prices move in near lockstep. In one crucial respect the UK is in worse shape: it allowed the Rough storage site to close, to save pennies, and against vehement warnings, leaving this country nakedly exposed with just days of winter back-up.The Government made a bet that the UK could always, and easily, obtain liquefied natural gas on the global market. But this country now finds itself in a bidding war for scarce LNG supplies with China, which is armed with $3.2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves and has ordered officials to secure energy as a matter of regime survival. The Asia spot price has just hit the once unthinkable level of $32 per MBBtu, if you can get it.If the Government has not already created an “energy war room” with emergency powers, it should do so forthwith. My fear is that we will drift into something akin to the Covid debacle of February 2020, when officials professed cheery confidence in their contingency plans (for a flu pandemic), heroically ignoring what the virus was already doing in Italy. Britain has advantages. Half its gas comes from internal supply on the Continental Shelf, unlike dependent Europe. Its service economy has a lower energy intensity ratio than Germany. It has useful friends. The Emir of Qatar has diverted LNG cargoes to the UK after a friendly chat with Boris Johnson, the fruit of tight defence, cultural, and royal ties. The Qataris turned down a similar request from Brussels because of an antitrust dispute over sales contracts. Might one discern a Brexit dividend in this?Offshore wind is working as it should and has dented the exorbitant bill for imported gas. Renewables have made up 32pc of the UK’s power over the last week. Be thankful for small mercies. Drax has 1.3 gigawatts of coal capacity in reserve that could be cranked up quickly.The UK could follow Japan and switch some gas plants to oil, currently trading at half the price of spot LNG ($180 equivalent). It could in extremis book LNG cargoes and hold the tankers at anchor as emergency storage. The Government could extend the life of the Hunterston B nuclear plant for a few months until we got through the worst.Clive Moffatt, an expert on energy security, said it is already too late. “There’s no short-term fix to this. The grid is going to have to shut down industrial gas users. That is the only way to keep hospitals open and homes heated,” he said. But if I had to choose, I’d rather be in Boris’s Britain this winter, than Ursula’s Europe.
Major Chinese Debt Manager Gets $6.5 Billion Government BailoutThe asset manager’s U.S. dollar bonds fell drastically in April when the company pushed back releasing its 2020 earnings.The Chinese government is bailing out China Huarong Asset Management Co., its largest purchaser of distressed bank assets, with an injection of $6.5 billion from financial institutions that are owned by the state.The restructuring of Huarong, a Beijing-based company that purchases defaulted or distressed commercial loans and attempts to recover money from them, was not surprising to some investors.Huarong said in its filings to Hong Kong’s stock exchange late Wednesday that the majority stake would be owned by the Ministry of Finance, declining to 28% from 57%.(...)
China's real estate woes sap property investment productsSHANGHAI — Chinese investors are abandoning an age-old attachment to property investment products and seeking returns in equities and other corners of the capital markets, as the authorities crack down on the debt-fueled property sector.The flow of cash into property investment products issued by trust companies has slumped since September, as embattled property giant China Evergrande Group’s debt woes deepened.That in turn is shutting one of the remaining funding channels for property developers who are already suffering from strict lending curbs onshore and record borrowing costs in the offshore bond market.“Previous investment logic has collapsed,” said Shanghai businessman Desmond Pan, who is considering shifting millions of yuan in property trust products into Bridgewater’s China fund called All Weather Enhanced Strategy.Sifting through a brochure with billionaire founder Ray Dalio’s smiling face and a smooth and rising performance curve, Pan reckons the multi-asset fund, with an annualized return of 19%, is a suitable investment substitute.Chinese investors have long had a penchant for real estate investments but the money flowing into property investment products has been shrinking in recent years since Beijing started to curtail shadow banking in 2017. Evergrande’s default on wealth management products (WMPs) in September, which triggered investor protests in many cities, only accelerated that trend.At the end of June, trust money that invests in real estate totalled 2.1 trillion yuan ($329.3 billion), down 17% from a year earlier. In contrast, trust products investing in securities such as bonds and stocks jumped 35% to 2.8 trillion yuan, according to the China Trustee Association.RISKS GROWThe rotation of money picked up pace in recent months, with fundraising by property-related trust products slumping 38% in September from the previous month, and 55% in October, according to Use Finance & Trust Research Institute.“Property-related trust products don’t sell these days, and we see clients step up shifting money into funds with relatively stable returns, such as fund of fund (FoF), and ‘quant funds’,” said a FoF manager at Shenwan Hongyuan Group, who declined to be identified as he is not authorized to speak to the media.Quant funds, or quantitative funds, employ software to automate investment decisions and often generate higher returns than bonds but carry less risk than stocks.“Chinese policies are nudging capital away from real estate, which is absolutely positive news for the asset management industry,” said Jason Hsu, founder and chairman of Rayliant Global Advisors, which recently launched a multi-strategy hedge fund in China that uses quantitative analysis.Shi Ke, a partner at Shanghai iFund Asset Management Co, a quant hedge fund house, agrees: “You need to cautious with property investment products. The risk of default is growing.”According to Citi Securities, China’s quantitative private funds have grown to 1 trillion yuan ($154.6 billion) in recent months. That is almost 10 times their size in 2017.Besides trust products, real estate wealth management products sold through banks or independent wealth management companies have also suffered after defaults at Evergrande and more recently a liquidity crunch at developer Kaisa Group .Jianda Ni, chairman of real estate-focused wealth management company Jupai Holdings, says there has been an irreversible shift of investment toward equities in sectors such as technology and new energy, and away from debt issued by developers.The firm, which distributes products to fund projects by Yango Group Co, Kaisa and Guangzhou R&F Properties Co, said it continues to diversify its product line and introduce more equity, overseas and secondary market products.Rival Hywin Holdings Ltd, which distributes products to fund projects by developers including Evergrande, told Reuters in September it aimed to reduce its reliance on real estate by expanding new products and growing businesses offshore. When contacted for comment, it did not provide further details.Liang Dongqing, head of wealth management service at China International Capital Corp (CICC), told a conference in October that while real estate remains the biggest component of the Chinese household balance sheet, the demographic and liquidity drivers behind China’s property bull cycle have gone.“Guiding clients to shift some of their existing wealth away from real estate, and reallocate assets to share China’s future economic growth, represents the biggest opportunity for wealth managers over the next decade.”
S&P Says It Believes China Evergrande Default Still ‘Highly Likely’HONG KONG—S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday a default is still “highly likely” for China Evergrande Group despite its recent bond coupon payments because it has a bigger test in March and April next year, facing a total of $3.5 billion maturities in dollar bonds.
Cita de: breades en Noviembre 17, 2021, 18:55:26 pmCita de: R.G.C.I.M. en Noviembre 17, 2021, 16:53:06 pmInflación persistente es la excusa perfecta para subida de tipos y retirada de estímulos, y consecuentemente inicio de frenazo para colapsó de hactibos y mercaos, una vez planificada e implantadas las bases del nuevo modelo??Sds.No van a repetir el error de Trichet. No está el horno para bollos.Lo cierto es que los hactibos y los mercaos (con su permiso) van a reventar solos y pronto.Un artículo de Xavier Vidal-Foch publicado este domingo pasado en El País en el que se apoya la tesis de breades de que no está el horno para bollos y, por tanto, no parece que vayan a seguir la senda de Trichet:CitarLa inflación es un hachazo y a la vez, un espejismoSalvo una reacción en manada, la subida de precios debe decaer entre primavera y verano por las manufacturas, los salarios y los servicios
Cita de: R.G.C.I.M. en Noviembre 17, 2021, 16:53:06 pmInflación persistente es la excusa perfecta para subida de tipos y retirada de estímulos, y consecuentemente inicio de frenazo para colapsó de hactibos y mercaos, una vez planificada e implantadas las bases del nuevo modelo??Sds.No van a repetir el error de Trichet. No está el horno para bollos.Lo cierto es que los hactibos y los mercaos (con su permiso) van a reventar solos y pronto.
Inflación persistente es la excusa perfecta para subida de tipos y retirada de estímulos, y consecuentemente inicio de frenazo para colapsó de hactibos y mercaos, una vez planificada e implantadas las bases del nuevo modelo??Sds.
La inflación es un hachazo y a la vez, un espejismoSalvo una reacción en manada, la subida de precios debe decaer entre primavera y verano por las manufacturas, los salarios y los servicios
Trabaja en el diario El País desde 1982 y es director adjunto del mismo desde 1989. En 2013 fue galardonado con el Premio de Periodismo Francisco Cerecedo(*) que concede la Asociación de Periodistas Europeos.
1990: Maruja Torres.1996: Carmen Rico Godoy2000: Arcadi Espada.2003: Iñaki Gabilondo.2005: Juan José Millás.2010: Pepa Bueno2013: Xavier Vidal-Folch2014: José Antonio Zarzalejos2019: Javier Cercas
[...] ¿De qué poder ...
[...] Por poner solo unos ejemplos. ¿Dónde hay que apuntarse para ser un mistificador y que te den un premio por ello?
Los halcones apelan a los intereses de los bancos (si son perezosos, sus márgenes son más fáciles con tipos altos), o de los ahorradores (que no han sabido himbertir) [...]
Austria confina a la población: los nervios vuelven a los mercados financierosLas bolsas pasan a negativo: el Ibex 35 ha llegado a poner en riesgo sus soportesLos inversores se refugian en los bonos: sube el precio y la rentabilidad se hundeEn las materias primas, el petróleo se deja un 1%: el euro también cedeYa no solo los no vacunados, que son un 44% de la población. Austria decide extender el confinamiento a toda la población a partir del lunes durante diez días -que podrían ser 20- para frenar el aumento de casos de coronavirus. En los últimos 14 días, la tasa de incidencia se le ha disparado con más de 1.500 nuevos contagios por cada 100.000 habitantes en un país de ocho millones de personas. Los nervios a que la pandemia reedite los peores episodios vividos en 2020 vuelven a los mercados financieros. Renta variable, fija, materias primas... nadie escapa a los temores.Las bolsas europeas dejan atrás las ganancias de la jornada para cotizar con pérdidas. El EuroStoxx 50 retoma las caídas por debajo de los 4.400 puntos, mientras que el Dax alemán, donde también aumentan los contagios de manera preocupante, se mueve con muchas dudas. Ni que decir de la bolsa de Austria, donde su principal índice ATX cae en vertical más de un 2%, rozando la mayor caída del año (el 20 de abril registró un descenso del 2,39%). El Ibex 35 también cede a la presión. Tras registrar su máximo de la jornada en los 8.954 puntos, el índice ha llegado a caer a mínimos del día en los 8.741 enteros. Un cifra que le ha llevado a colocarse por debajo de los 8.800 puntos. ¿Qué pasará si el índice pierde hoy (u otra jornada) este soporte? Según explica el asesor de Ecotrader, Joan Cabrero, abrirá la puerta a retroceder hacia los mínimos de septiembre en los 8.550 enteros, es decir, un 2,8% adicional en el corto plazo. Cabrero también señala los mínimos de julio, los 8.250 (otro 3,5% abajo) como nivel a tener en cuenta si los peores augurios se confirman.
Ingreso Mínimo VitalEl Ingreso Mínimo Vital es una prestación dirigida a prevenir el riesgo de pobreza y exclusión social de las personas que viven solas o están integradas en una unidad de convivencia y carecen de recursos económicos básicos para cubrir sus necesidades básicas.RequisitosLos siguientes requisitos deben cumplirse tanto en el momento de la presentación de la solicitud como de sus revisiones, y mantenerse al dictar la resolución y durante el tiempo de la percepción de la prestación:1. Tener residencia en España [...]2. Estar en situación de vulnerabilidad económica: No se considera en situación de vulnerabilidad económica la persona beneficiaria individual que sea titular de un patrimonio, sin incluir la vivienda habitual, valorado en un importe igual o superior a tres veces la cuantía correspondiente de renta garantizada por el ingreso mínimo vital para una persona beneficiaria individual. En 2021 esto equivale a 16.917,60 euros.
Reglas para el cómputo de patrimonio1. Se considera patrimonio la suma de los activos no societarios, sin incluir la vivienda habitual, y el patrimonio societario neto, tal como se definen en los siguientes apartados.2. Los activos no societarios son la suma de los siguientes conceptos: Los inmuebles, excluida la vivienda habitual. Las cuentas bancarias y depósitos. Los activos financieros en forma de valores, seguros y rentas y las participaciones en Instituciones de Inversión Colectiva. Las participaciones en planes, fondos de pensiones y sistemas alternativos similares.
Evergrande to be removed from Hang Seng China Enterprises IndexHONG KONG, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Embattled developer China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) will be removed from Hong Kong's Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (.HSCE), the benchmark provider said on Friday following its regular quarterly review.The Hang Seng Indexes Company does not typically give reasons for changes to its indexes, and did not in Friday's statement.The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is designed to reflect the performance of mainland Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, and includes the top 50 eligible stocks by a measure of their market value.Evergrande's shares have fallen over 80% year to date.Separately, Hang Seng Indexes said they had added technology firms JD.com (9618.HK) and Netease (9999.HK) to the benchmark Hang Seng Index (.HSI).Hang Seng Indexes is trying to include more securities in the benchmark to make it more reflective of the companies listed in Hong Kong.
El mercado laboral español: propuestas inadecuadasEl equívoco fundamental de las medidas que encarecen el despido está en creer que con ellas se está protegiendo a los trabajadores, cuando lo que se hace es perjudicarles(...) Pronto sabremos lo que se propone hacer el gobierno, y no porque muestre una tendencia natural a clarificar las cosas, sino porque a una parte del mismo le urge marcar el terreno antes de las elecciones, y porque la reforma del mercado de trabajo es una exigencia de la Unión Europea para desembolsar los fondos del programa de recuperación.Hasta entonces tendremos tiempo de hablar de otros aspectos negativos de nuestro mercado de trabajo y de las curiosas propuestas del gobierno para resolverlos.