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No obstante, en un entorno de elevados niveles de vacunación, para Cardoso "es de esperar que el gasto de los hogares se incremente de manera importante y la tasa de ahorro caiga en trimestres posteriores". De hecho, el economista jefe de BBVA Research opina que "incluso podría darse el caso de que los hogares decidan desahorrar, si piensan que su riqueza ha aumentado por encima de lo necesario. Esta es una de las razones para pensar que el consumo continuará creciendo fuertemente durante los próximos meses".
Nuclear fusion: why the race to harness the power of the sun just sped upAdvances in technology and funding have sparked optimism in an area that has promised much but delivered little in six decades(...)The potential of fusion energy, first pioneered by the Soviet Union, has tantalised scientists for decades but has always seemed just out of reach.“Fusion is probably the greatest technical challenge humanity has ever taken on,” says Arthur Turrell, whose book The Star Builders charts the decades-long effort by engineers, physicists and mathematicians to achieve what some still believe is impossible. “How close it is depends not on time, but on the will, the investment and the commitment of resources to actually get there.”A growing number of private companies, including First Light, are now hoping to commercialise those years of public research by proving fusion power can work and connecting it to the grid as soon as the 2030s.(...) Just one glass of the fuel created by the process has the energy potential of 1m gallons of oil and could generate, depending on the fusion approach, as much as 9m kilowatt hours of electricity, enough to power a home for more than 800 years, scientists estimate.Those characteristics, its proponents say, mean fusion, by providing cheap, unlimited zero emissions electricity, could genuinely save the world.“I couldn’t be more optimistic,” says Silicon Valley venture capitalist Sam Altman, who recently invested $375m in the US fusion start-up Helion. “In addition to being our best path out of the climate crisis, less expensive energy is transformational for society.”(...) Bob Mumgaard, CFS chief executive, compares the breakthrough with the evolution of computing. “Computers, back when they had vacuum tubes, took up whole rooms. Then when they had transistors you could make the computers smaller and, all of a sudden, people that weren’t doing computers could do computers,” he says.“Fusion has so many really desirable attributes, if you think about what is required for the entire world to live in the way people deserve to live and to also have a liveable planet,” he says. The next step towards power production is the construction of a demonstration plant called Sparc, about half the size of a tennis court, which CFS hopes will achieve net energy by 2025 and then a commercial power station in the 2030s.“We’re using known science, with new engineering and new materials,” says Francesca Ferrazza, a physicist at the Italian oil major Eni, which has collaborated with MIT since 2008 and is the largest outside investor in CFS. “The ambition would be to be a player in the [fusion energy] field with a substantial presence in various parts of the value chain,” she says.“Fusion is coming, faster than you expect,” says Andrew Holland, chief executive of the newly formed Fusion Industry Association, which counts the number of private businesses in the sector worldwide at 35 and growing.(...) Yet progress is undoubtedly being made, including at the US government’s National Ignition Facility, where in August scientists used 192 lasers to generate a fusion reaction that appears to have come the closest yet to achieving net energy.“It was the biggest breakthrough in fusion for literally decades,” says Turrell, adding that getting fusion energy on to the grid in 2030 is a “great ambition”.“But if they get there in 2040 instead that is still going to be a huge win for the world,” he adds. “And even if they get there after 2050 and the world has [already] reached net zero that will still be a massive win for humanity because we need a portfolio of energy sources.”
Making sense of the Great ResignationLabour markets have been reshaped by the pandemic in different waysThe pandemic sparked a wave of speculation about what, on the other side, the world of work would look like. Perhaps, as in the aftermath of the Black Death, it would permanently tilt the balance of power towards labour. Or perhaps the brush with mortality would lead to millions re-evaluating their priorities, opting for a new work-life balance, aided by the spread of work-from-home arrangements. A much worse alternative was that the biggest fall in economic activity on record could, without proper monetary and fiscal support, lead to a repeat of the Great Depression, with stubbornly high joblessness and low job growth for decades.To a certain extent, in different places to different degrees, all have come true and the future of work is not completely settled. As has been shown by an FT series published throughout this week, asking ‘where have all the workers gone?’, there is no one single experience of labour markets after the pandemic. The term Great Resignation was coined in the US, where thousands have handed in their notice in search of better remunerated or more rewarding work. Much of this has been so-called job-to-job moves, where workers leave their job to find something else. That, generally, represents a policy success as in-demand workers improved their lot and perhaps businesses too profited from getting workers that are a better “fit”.Not all is well, however. Many others have dropped out of the labour market altogether. There are roughly 4m fewer workers in the US than there were before the pandemic. Some of this could be the lingering effects of the Covid crisis, with workers in many face-to-face industries still worrying about the risks of infection. There have been more than 2.4m “excess retirements” since the beginning of the pandemic, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. Similar trends have been seen in the UK, where the most common reason for leaving work was either long-term illness or retirement.In the UK, shifts in workers’ interest or appetite for work have combined with the departure of thousands of the country’s EU citizens, exacerbating labour shortages. In France and elsewhere in the eurozone, meanwhile, worker participation has increased — confounding the low expectations for its traditionally sclerotic jobs market. Partly that may be due to Europe’s “furlough” schemes, which kept workers linked to employers, rather than the US model of direct payments which encouraged both sides to look for new options by increasing unemployment. Or, in the case of France, it could reflect reforms carried out by President Emmanuel Macron before the pandemic hit.Policymakers have to figure out whether these trends are something to encourage, resist or ignore altogether. US president Joe Biden has said that an explicit goal of his stimulus effort is for full employment to increase worker bargaining power, as shown by the increasing number of job-to-job moves. Alternatively, the permanent exit by workers, such as migrants in the UK, could permanently raise costs and contribute to inflation. Some retirees, on the other hand, may return to the jobs market as the virus fades and they feel more comfortable working again — or, perhaps, if their savings from months of lockdown turn out to not go as far as expected.Ultimately, the pandemic is not over and neither should we expect its impact on the world of work to have ended. Economies are still in the process of adapting to whatever the new normal turns out to be.
[...] El artículo incluye un enlace para acceder al publireportaje completo, pero les dejo a continuación las opiniones de los 50 "expertos" en las que todo es de color de rosa y los únicos nubarrones tienen que ver con las regulaciones sobre vivienda y alquiler que está poniendo en marcha el gobierno .
https://www.ft.com/content/33942ae7-75ff-4911-ab99-adc32545fe5cCitarNuclear fusion: why the race to harness the power of the sun just sped upAdvances in technology and funding have sparked optimism in an area that has promised much but delivered little in six decades(...)
Nuclear fusion: why the race to harness the power of the sun just sped upAdvances in technology and funding have sparked optimism in an area that has promised much but delivered little in six decades(...)
Cita de: shostakovich en Noviembre 26, 2021, 16:20:15 pm[...] El Big Bang: era una unidad todo cuándo empezó el tiempo no? Es decir, la "percepción" de tiempo, separatividad, distancia, es todo una "percepción" y tiene unas leyes. Pero no es algo "absoluto" no? De hecho la ciencia no es la "verdad", son modelos que ayudan a explicar cosas, pero Gödel ya demostró que ni siquiera las matemáticas son un sistema explicable, demostrable y cerrado. No sé bien expresar esto ultimo pero es algo asíNo creas. Te "explicas" bien. Adios.
[...] El Big Bang: era una unidad todo cuándo empezó el tiempo no? Es decir, la "percepción" de tiempo, separatividad, distancia, es todo una "percepción" y tiene unas leyes. Pero no es algo "absoluto" no? De hecho la ciencia no es la "verdad", son modelos que ayudan a explicar cosas, pero Gödel ya demostró que ni siquiera las matemáticas son un sistema explicable, demostrable y cerrado. No sé bien expresar esto ultimo pero es algo así
Cita de: sudden and sharp en Noviembre 26, 2021, 21:09:41 pmCita de: shostakovich en Noviembre 26, 2021, 16:20:15 pm[...] El Big Bang: era una unidad todo cuándo empezó el tiempo no? Es decir, la "percepción" de tiempo, separatividad, distancia, es todo una "percepción" y tiene unas leyes. Pero no es algo "absoluto" no? De hecho la ciencia no es la "verdad", son modelos que ayudan a explicar cosas, pero Gödel ya demostró que ni siquiera las matemáticas son un sistema explicable, demostrable y cerrado. No sé bien expresar esto ultimo pero es algo asíNo creas. Te "explicas" bien. Adios.Me gusta leer sobre física a nivel divulgativo y, en mi modesta opinión la ciencia está aún en pañales. Por ejemplo, la materia y la energía oscura que son conceptos en contra del método científico (si la realidad va en contra de nuestra teoría nos inventamos "algo" que no se puede detectar y así salvamos dicha teoría). O el propio big bang, para mí una teoría que no lleva a ningún sitio y sobre la que sospecho se le ha dado popularidad por su cercanía y paralelismo con la idea de Dios. Todavía no se sabe que es la gravedad. La explicación de Einstein de la curvatura del espacio introduce lo que se quiere explicar en la explicación, es decir, el espacio se curva y por eso la materia tiende a ir a esa curvatura, pero ¿por qué? ¿por la gravedad? pero si es la gravedad lo que quieres explicar.O el propio concepto de tiempo, como si fuera una magnitud real. Pero si es una reducción fenomenológica, como la estadística, para que la mente humana pueda manejar la complejidad de la realidad que muta continuamente. Por ejemplo, un año, si tuviéramos que explicar todo lo que nuestra realidad personal ha cambiado en ese periodo de tiempo para comunicar algo o para organizar algo sería imposible, asique cojemos la traslación del Sol, un fenómeno objetivo y observable para todos, y lo usamos a modo de resumen.Son ideas que me surgen, no me hagáis mucho caso, jeje
The Evergrande Blueprint Worked for Other Chinese Developers, Until It Didn’tAfter borrowing heavily to fund breakneck growth, they are suffering financial meltdowns as credit grows scarce and home sales declineChina’s property boom has spawned numerous developers that, like industry giant China Evergrande Group , borrowed heavily to fund breakneck growth.Now they are inflicting unprecedented losses on international investors as credit grows scarce and sales of new homes decline. Investors have dumped their bonds, setting off alarms over the companies’ finances.(...)
China's c.bank to keep policy "flexible, targeted", says property risks under controlHONG KONG/BEIJING, Nov 19 (Reuters) - China’s central bank on Friday said it would keep its prudent monetary policy “flexible and targeted” and strike a balance between economic growth and risk controls.In its third-quarter monetary policy implementation report, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it would keep liquidity reasonably ample while it also saw risks in the property market generally under control.“The prudent monetary policy should be flexible, targeted, and appropriate,” the central bank said. (...)
Cita de: marvin en Noviembre 28, 2021, 13:09:52 pmCita de: sudden and sharp en Noviembre 26, 2021, 21:09:41 pmCita de: shostakovich en Noviembre 26, 2021, 16:20:15 pm[...] El Big Bang: era una unidad todo cuándo empezó el tiempo no? Es decir, la "percepción" de tiempo, separatividad, distancia, es todo una "percepción" y tiene unas leyes. Pero no es algo "absoluto" no? De hecho la ciencia no es la "verdad", son modelos que ayudan a explicar cosas, pero Gödel ya demostró que ni siquiera las matemáticas son un sistema explicable, demostrable y cerrado. No sé bien expresar esto ultimo pero es algo asíNo creas. Te "explicas" bien. Adios.Me gusta leer sobre física a nivel divulgativo y, en mi modesta opinión la ciencia está aún en pañales. Por ejemplo, la materia y la energía oscura que son conceptos en contra del método científico (si la realidad va en contra de nuestra teoría nos inventamos "algo" que no se puede detectar y así salvamos dicha teoría). O el propio big bang, para mí una teoría que no lleva a ningún sitio y sobre la que sospecho se le ha dado popularidad por su cercanía y paralelismo con la idea de Dios. Todavía no se sabe que es la gravedad. La explicación de Einstein de la curvatura del espacio introduce lo que se quiere explicar en la explicación, es decir, el espacio se curva y por eso la materia tiende a ir a esa curvatura, pero ¿por qué? ¿por la gravedad? pero si es la gravedad lo que quieres explicar.O el propio concepto de tiempo, como si fuera una magnitud real. Pero si es una reducción fenomenológica, como la estadística, para que la mente humana pueda manejar la complejidad de la realidad que muta continuamente. Por ejemplo, un año, si tuviéramos que explicar todo lo que nuestra realidad personal ha cambiado en ese periodo de tiempo para comunicar algo o para organizar algo sería imposible, asique cojemos la traslación del Sol, un fenómeno objetivo y observable para todos, y lo usamos a modo de resumen.Son ideas que me surgen, no me hagáis mucho caso, jejeSon buenos intentos... el problema es cuando se confunden los axiomas con leyes. Se parte de un axioma para intentar avanzar... con el paso del tiempo ya son indiscutibles como leyes. Y estás loco o te toman por tal si no lo aceptas así.
Why the Energy Transition Will Be So ComplicatedThe degree to which the world depends on oil and gas is not well understood.(...) The term energy transition somehow sounds like it is a well-lubricated slide from one reality to another. In fact, it will be far more complex: Throughout history, energy transitions have been difficult, and this one is even more challenging than any previous shift. In my book The New Map, I peg the beginning of the first energy transition to January 1709, when an English metalworker named Abraham Darby figured out that he could make better iron by using coal rather than wood for heat. But that first transition was hardly swift. The 19th century is known as the “century of coal,” but, as the technology scholar Vaclav Smil has noted, not until the beginning of the 20th century did coal actually overtake wood as the world’s No. 1 energy source. Moreover, past energy transitions have also been “energy additions”—one source atop another. Oil, discovered in 1859, did not surpass coal as the world’s primary energy source until the 1960s, yet today the world uses almost three times as much coal as it did in the ’60s.The coming energy transition is meant to be totally different. Rather than an energy addition, it is supposed to be an almost complete switch from the energy basis of today’s $86 trillion world economy, which gets 80 percent of its energy from hydrocarbons. In its place is intended to be a net-carbon-free energy system, albeit one with carbon capture, for what could be a $185 trillion economy in 2050. To do that in less than 30 years—and accomplish much of the change in the next nine—is a very tall order.Here is where the complexities become clear. Beyond outerwear, the degree to which the world depends on oil and gas is often not understood. It’s not just a matter of shifting from gasoline-powered cars to electric ones, which themselves, by the way, are about 20 percent plastic. It’s about shifting away from all the other ways we use plastics and other oil and gas derivatives. Plastics are used in wind towers and solar panels, and oil is necessary to lubricate wind turbines. The casing of your cellphone is plastic, and the frames of your glasses likely are too, as well as many of the tools in a hospital operating room. The air frames of the Boeing 787, Airbus A350, and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jet are all made out of high-strength, petroleum-derived carbon fiber. The number of passenger planes is expected to double in the next two decades. They are also unlikely to fly on batteries.Oil products have been crucial for dealing with the pandemic too, from protective gear for emergency staff to the lipids that are part of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Have a headache? Acetaminophen—including such brands as Tylenol and Panadol—is a petroleum-derived product. In other words, oil and natural-gas products are deeply embedded throughout modern life.(...)
Remote learning led to lower K-12 test scores in some U.S. states, especially for math, study findsThe coronavirus pandemic forced schools to pivot to virtual learning in an effort to curb the spread of COVID-19, but new research shows how remote learning hurt some students' academic performance.According to a new working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), remote learning caused significant declines in test scores in English language arts and math compared to schools with more in-person learning."Our research shows that test score losses are significantly larger in districts with less in-person learning," Emily Oster, professor of economics at Brown University, told Yahoo Finance. "This suggests, yes, that virtual learning was — and is — less effective than in-person learning, at least as measured by school-based testing."(...)
EU needs to buy time on Omicron variant - EU's von der LeyenRIGA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The European Union needs to buy time to assess fully the implications of the new Omicron coronavirus variant and to prepare, notably by pushing for greater vaccination rates, the president of the European Commission said on Sunday.First discovered in South Africa, the variant has now been detected in EU countries Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, along with Australia, Botswana, Britain, Hong Kong and Israel.Ursula Von der Leyen, speaking during a visit to Latvia, said she took the variant seriously."We know that we are in a race against time.... And the scientists and manufacturers need two to three weeks to have a full picture about the quality of the mutations of this Omicron variant," she told a news conference.(...)