PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Verano 2022

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20220919/282016151182457

Más de 700.000 pymes afrontan problemas de liquidez

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20220919/282041920986233

El Congreso examina al Gobierno del precio de los alimentos e hipotecas

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

The US Treasury Recommends Exploring Creation of a 'Digital Dollar'
Posted by EditorDavid on Monday September 19, 2022 @12:14AM from the almighty-blockchain dept.

Some news Friday from the Associated Press. "The Biden administration is moving one step closer to developing a central bank digital currency, known as the digital dollar, saying it would help reinforce the U.S. role as a leader in the world financial system."

The White House said on Friday that after President Joe Biden issued an executive order in March calling on a variety of agencies to look at ways to regulate digital assets, the agencies came up with nine reports, covering cryptocurrency impacts on financial markets, the environment, innovation and other elements of the economic system.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said one Treasury recommendation is that the U.S. "advance policy and technical work on a potential central bank digital currency, or CBDC, so that the United States is prepared if CBDC is determined to be in the national interest.... Right now, some aspects of our current payment system are too slow or too expensive," Yellen said on a Thursday call with reporters laying out some of the findings of the reports....

According to the Atlantic Council nonpartisan think tank, 105 countries representing more than 95% of global gross domestic product already are exploring or have created a central bank digital currency. The council found that the U.S. and the U.K. are far behind in creating a digital dollar or its equivalent.... Several [U.S. agency] reports will come out in the next weeks and months.

Eswar Prasad, a trade professor at Cornell who studies the digitization of currencies, said Treasury's report "takes a positive view about how a digital dollar might play a useful role in increasing payment options for individuals and businesses" while acknowledging the risks of its development. He said the report sets the stage for the creation of agency regulations and legislation "that can improve the benefit-risk tradeoff associated with cryptocurrencies and related technologies."

A statement from the U.S. White House cautions that the report does not make any decisions "regarding particular design choices for a potential U.S. CBDC system." Instead, the 58-page document analyzes 18 different choices for technical designs, and according to its introductory paragraph, "makes recommendations on how to prepare the U.S. Government for a U.S. CBDC system."

But "it does no make an assessment or recommendation about whether a U.S. CBDC system should be pursued."

Saludos.

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/11949083/09/22/El-mercado-espera-que-la-Fed-lleve-los-tipos-de-interes-al-4-antes-de-2023.html

Saludos.

Pues justo fue un 4% lo que "Monsieur Trichet" aplicó en 2007-08. Eso, y el cierre del grifo de los préstamos en general fue lo que reventó la burbuja española casi de un día para otro.

Los últimos entrampados pueden darse por muy jodidos. Y además está el tema de que esta vez no hay burbuja de construcción, sólo cambio de cromos de lo que ya está construido. Veremos hasta qué punto la banca se ha desaguado, pero el ciudadano corriente ya no va a ver un millón más de parados de un mes para otro.

Crucemos los dedos y ojalá que pollo tenga razón cuando dice que se acabaron las gaitas y empezó la pasteurización. Aunque yo lo llamaría radioterapia porque este tumor es calibre XXL.

[PastorMesetario]

Ahora se ve con tanta claridad que aquello que comentábamos durante los momentos de esplendor del "oportunovirus" no eran delirios conspiranoicos...

[PastorMesetario]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20220919/281646783995001

Cautela de la banca con la morosidad

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/11948996/09/22/La-banca-limpia-14000-millones-de-activos-toxicos-con-la-venta-de-carteras-inmobiliarias.html

Saludos.

Es fascinante la "toxicidad cuántica de Schröding-erial". Ya no había activos tóxicos en los balances bancarios. Todo se había desaguado pero, uy, sí que había.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Ahora se ve con tanta claridad que aquello que comentábamos durante los momentos de esplendor del "oportunovirus" no eran delirios conspiranoicos...

Pues no, no lo veo. Lo comenté hace algunos posts. Los gobiernos no tienen tanto poder de control sobre lo que sucede. Sí tienen más capacidad de anticiparse. Igual que los británicos tenían organizado el funeral de la reina desde hace décadas, sin olvidar un solo detalle, no es tan difícil anticiparse a escenarios de crisis. La historia ayuda mucho porque muchas de las cosas que suceden -guerras, pandemias- ya han ocurrido en el pasado.

Además, en contra de lo que dice el dicho, en tiempos de tribulación sí se hacen mudanzas. Y muchas. Hay cambios duros que la población no toleraría si no hay una sensación de que las circunstancias los fuerzan. Y esas circunstancias en general vienen solas, excepcionalmente son provocadas.

Ahora se ve con tanta claridad que aquello que comentábamos durante los momentos de esplendor del "oportunovirus" no eran delirios conspiranoicos...

Pues no, no lo veo. Lo comenté hace algunos posts. Los gobiernos no tienen tanto poder de control sobre lo que sucede. Sí tienen más capacidad de anticiparse. Igual que los británicos tenían organizado el funeral de la reina desde hace décadas, sin olvidar un solo detalle, no es tan difícil anticiparse a escenarios de crisis. La historia ayuda mucho porque muchas de las cosas que suceden -guerras, pandemias- ya han ocurrido en el pasado. Luego, cuando hace falta, simplemente se saca el plan del cajón y se ejecuta.

Además, en contra de lo que dice el dicho, en tiempos de tribulación sí se hacen mudanzas. Y muchas. Hay cambios duros que la población no toleraría si no hay una sensación de que las circunstancias los fuerzan. Y esas circunstancias en general vienen solas, excepcionalmente son provocadas.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Es fascinante la "toxicidad cuántica de Schröding-erial". Ya no había activos tóxicos en los balances bancarios. Todo se había desaguado pero, uy, sí que había.

Durante años construimos al año más que Francia, Alemania, y Gran Bretaña. Juntas. El stock que quedó colgado es bestial.

Es obvio que la gran banca no se ha deshecho de todo, y es imposible que lo consiga al 100%. Se trata de -ya veremos si lo consiguen- de reducir la exposición y provisionar lo suficiente como para dejar caer el tocho sin que el resto de la economía y la financiación bancaria se corten como en la crisis. Entonces el nivel de mierda era tal que no se podía extirpar sólo lo enfermo sin más. O se dejaba morir todo o se rescataba todo.


Está clarísimo que esto es la prueba de fuego final, el dejar caer lo que queda de ladrillo, o seguir arrastrándolo hasta que se termine de diluir.

[Saturio]

Yo estoy preocupadísimo por el tejido productivo-empresarial.

Nos dicen que 700.000 pymes tienen problemas de liquidez. Un eufemismo. Evidentemente no tienen liquidez pero ese no es su problema. Años de rentabilidades negativas que se han podido pasar porque los bancos se han mantenido de forma constante y creciente en el balance.

Los que pensáis que esto va a ser una limpieza inmobiliaria sin mayores consecuencias estáis equivocados. De nuevo, cuando todo esto se desencadene lo que menos nos va a importar es el precio de los inmuebles.

[sudden and sharp]

Ahora se ve con tanta claridad que aquello que comentábamos durante los momentos de esplendor del "oportunovirus" no eran delirios conspiranoicos...

Durante la pandemia... se suspendieron las margin calls... Calcula.

[Derby]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2022-09-19/guindos-observa-ya-enfriamiento-inmobiliario-frenazo_3492870/

De Guindos observa ya un enfriamiento inmobiliario por el frenazo económico

El vicepresidente del BCE señala que el Gobierno todavía no ha contactado con el banco central para consultar su opinión sobre el impuesto y que su intención es pronunciarse

El vicepresidente del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), Luis de Guindos, ve ya un frenazo inmobiliario a nivel europeo. Así lo ha señalado en un acto interno de Banco Sabadell: "Como consecuencia de las subidas de tipos, había algunos segmentos en los que observábamos sobrevaloraciones y en los que ha empezado ya un enfriamiento de precios". (...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/ecb-says-pandemic-behavioral-shifts-may-cushion-housing-market

ECB Says Pandemic Behavioral Shifts May Cushion Housing Market

Shifting consumer preferences due to the pandemic may help cushion euro-area property prices as interest rates rise, according to the European Central Bank.

Mortgage rates have climbed significantly in the first half of 2022, which can particularly weigh on house prices and investment when coming from an environment of low borrowing costs, ECB researchers Niccolo Battistini, Johannes Gareis and Moreno Roma said in an economic bulletin published Monday.



As the ECB exits years of ultra-loose monetary policy, models suggest a one-percentage-point increase in mortgage rates could lead to house-price drops of about 9% after two years, they said.

But the effect could be softened as households attach greater value to more spacious properties that allow work from home, with prices for detached houses and residential real estate outside euro-zone capitals having outpaced other options.

“Pandemic-induced shifts in housing preferences could counteract higher mortgage rates and could explain some of the resilience which has been observed in the euro-area housing market,” the report said.

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/11951545/09/22/El-BCE-cree-que-la-subida-de-tipos-puede-provocar-una-caida-del-precio-de-la-vivienda-mayor-a-la-de-otros-tiempos.html

El BCE cree que la subida de tipos puede provocar una caída del precio de la vivienda mayor que en otras ocasiones

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2022/html/ecb.ebbox202206_04~786da4a23a.en.html

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/supply-chain-decoupling-from-china-gets-sharper-teeth-11663591740

Supply-Chain Decoupling From China Gets Sharper Teeth

Breaking of links with China to start gaining steam as governments act to secure supply chains

Covid-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and rising geopolitical risks in Asia have thrown a wrench into global supply chains. That has reinvigorated the push to put key supply links back onshore—particularly those currently located in manufacturing juggernaut China.

A full “decoupling,” meaning the breaking of economic links with China, remains unlikely, but supply chains would become less integrated than in the past. That would have significant consequences for both businesses and consumers—and probably for long-run inflation expectations as well.

Two proposed laws in Europe are the latest case in point. The European Union proposed a ban on products made using forced labor last Wednesday. It doesn’t name China but alleged forced labor in the country’s Xinjiang region is clearly a main target. A few United Nations reports have added impetus in recent weeks. A U.N. expert published a report saying it is “reasonable to conclude” that forced labor has taken place in Xinjiang. And the U.N. human-rights agency said China has committed crimes against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities. China denies such claims.

The proposed law looks less harsh than its U.S. equivalent. The U.S. legislation puts the onus on importers to prove that products from Xinjiang aren’t made with forced labor—an incredibly high bar. The EU proposal doesn’t. Products would only be blocked at the conclusion of an investigation. That, however, could change as the proposal needs approval from the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament.

(...)Another proposal from Europe tries to directly address such dominance, which also extends to the processing of lithium and other minerals critical for green energy applications. If passed, the law would attempt to speed up domestic production, processing and recycling of such raw materials. The way Europe sleepwalked into an energy crisis due to overreliance on Russia for oil and gas has doubtless helped focus minds.

“Lithium and rare earths will soon be more important than oil and gas,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week. China processes almost 90% of rare earths and 60% of lithium, according to Ms. von der Leyen.

All of this follows similar moves in the U.S. The healthcare, climate and tax law passed in August provides incentives for domestic manufacturing of clean-energy products such as batteries and solar panels. Washington is also implementing policies to encourage the onshoring of semiconductors and biotechnology.

Such onshoring will take years and a full-scale relocation of manufacturing jobs back to the West is unrealistic. Friendlier or closer countries such as Vietnam and Mexico will probably be big beneficiaries—particularly those that already have free-trade agreements with the U.S. or the EU.

But the rapid globalization of the past few decades seems likely to take a pause. Businesses, consumers and governments will gain a measure of reliability and peace of mind—but they should be prepared to pay up too.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/ecb-s-de-cos-backs-more-gradual-hikes-to-safeguard-economy

ECB’s De Cos Backs More Gradual Hikes to Safeguard Economy

*De Cos cautions against ‘rapid convergence’ to 2% price goal
*More hawkish ECB officials are currently driving policy

European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos signaled he prefers a more gradual approach to raising interest rates to confront record euro-zone inflation.

While saying that borrowing costs need to rise further with prices surging at almost five times the 2% target, the Spanish central bank chief warned that the 19-member euro area is facing a marked slowdown in activity.

“Our actions affect inflation very gradually, reaching their maximum impact after about two years,” De Cos said Monday in a speech in Almeria, Spain. Even if the impact were more immediate, “it may not be desirable to force an excessively rapid convergence of inflation to 2%, due to the excessive impact on activity and employment that this would entail.”



It’s the first time de Cos, one of the ECB’s most dovish officials, has spoken since this month’s historic three-quarter-point hike, which he said was justified by the inflation outlook. That move matched the recent tough action taken by the Federal Reserve and highlighted how the hawks in Frankfurt currently dominate the battle to curb inflation.

The weekend saw Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel urge officials to be “determined” in implementing more rate hikes as price gains approach double digits -- even if doing so drags down economic expansion.

Earlier Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said a slowdown in Europe’s growth isn’t enough on its own to curb consumer prices.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/us-10-year-yield-rises-to-3-5-for-first-time-since-2011

US 10-Year Yield Rises to 3.5% for First Time Since 2011

*75bps hike at September FOMC priced in; some expect 100bps
*Traders see rising chance of a downturn that’ll lead to easing

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 3.50% for the first time since 2011 on Monday, with the bond market extending its bearish run ahead of another jumbo rate hike expected this week by the Federal Reserve to bring down inflation.

The 10-year yield jumped as much as 6.6 basis points to 3.516%, breaking above a psychological level that held in mid-June. Still the main selling pressure in the Treasury market remained focused on the policy sensitive two-year note with the benchmark rising as much as 9 basis points to 3.96%, marking a fresh high since October 2007.



Traders have wagered that another three-quarter point hike at this week’s Fed review is largely a done deal. Talk has emerged of a 100-basis point move to rein in price pressures that have shown little signs of easing even after the recent round of rate increases.(...)