Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

[...] Hombre, la primera regla cuando eres un pececillo es que nunca apuestes contra el mercado. Si el mercado se mueve en una dirección, lo inteligente es seguirlo. O por lo menos esa era la regla de oro hasta hace unos años.

Vale. Pero si el merkao se escoña... te escoñas con él.

Ya, pero en el capitalismopopular la gente ya se ha aprendido que si formas parte de una mayoría electoral suficiente, ya se encargará el gobierno, si quiere mantener  sus corruptelas y redes clientelares, de llevar al merkao a donde a sus votantes les interese.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Calópez lleva tiempo soltando en su blog titulares como "el Euribor da por fin una alegría". Como en 2009 y siguientes, vendiendo como victorias y "ya hemos tocado fondo" parones momentáneos en la bajada del tocho.

Ahora con el Euribor pasa lo mismo. Parones puntuales, pero la realidad es que en cada parada sólo estaba cogiendo aire para la siguiente subida.

Hay tantos hipotecados que es prácticamente el monotema para ellos, la temida revisión. Eso, y el recuerdo de 2007 donde el Euribor y los tipos se pusieron por encima del 4%.

También hemos comentado por aquí la falsa amnistía de los bancos a los hipotecados. No es más que una vulgar refinanciación, con la que encima los bancos acaban ganando más. Amnistía de pega a los ya entrampados... porque para las nuevas hipotecas el cerrojazo ya es total.


Tampoco hay mucho más que rascar de estas noticias. Se aguanta la respiración mientras se reza para que la bajada de tipos llegue antes que quedarse sin aire. Vamos a tener noticias del no-mercado para rato.

[Negrule]

Growth in the global balance sheet accelerated during the pandemic, but paused in 2022.

(…)The global balance sheet takes stock of the wealth and health of the global economy, looking at the assets and liabilities of households, corporations, governments, and financial institutions. For nearly three decades, the global balance sheet continuously grew faster than GDP, as described in MGI’s 2021 report The rise and rise of the global balance sheet: How productively are we using our wealth? This growth then accelerated sharply in the intense first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in 2022, early signs of a possible inflection point appeared, with greater volatility in the components of the global balance sheet and the first overall shrinkage in decades.

The global balance sheet expanded inexorably from 2000 to the end of 2021. Real assets and net worth; financial assets and liabilities held by households, governments, and nonfinancial corporations; and financial assets and liabilities held by financial corporations each grew from about four to more than five times GDP. Global net worth was $610 trillion at the end of 2021. Only about one-fifth of wealth growth came from savers channeling money into new investment, with asset price inflation on the back of low interest rates contributing close to 80 percent. Correspondingly, liabilities and debt in China, Europe, Japan, and the United States were higher relative to GDP at the end of 2021 than at the time of the 2008 global financial crisis. For every dollar of net investment, $1.90 of additional debt was created outside the financial sector.

In this period, across countries, real estate, debt, and US equities drove most of the growth. While there were large differences among the 30 countries covered in the magnitude, timing, and composition of growth in assets and liabilities, the direction of travel, the rapid expansion relative to GDP, and the strong role of real estate were near universal. Households, particularly in Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United States, also experienced rapidly rising equity and pension wealth. Growth in debt relative to GDP was fastest in China, France, and Greece; relative to net investment, it was highest in Portugal, Italy, Greece, and the United Kingdom at factors of 4.1, 3.9, 3.8, and 3.8, respectively.

Growth in the global balance sheet accelerated during the pandemic. In 2020 and 2021, the intense first two years of the pandemic when governments launched large-scale support for economic activity, households globally added $100 trillion to global wealth “on paper” as asset prices soared and $39 trillion in new currency and deposits were minted. As a result, global wealth relative to GDP grew faster than in any other two-year period in the past nine decades. Debt and equity liabilities increased by about $50 trillion and $75 trillion, respectively, as governments and central banks stimulated economies. The creation of new debt accelerated to $3.40 for each $1.00 in net investment(…)

https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/global-balance-sheet-2022-enter-volatility?stcr=44BDDF4979D144F2AAAFD6B820FF8A5F&cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck&hlkid=d89b725d5d3c47cea5195f1b532b4fa1&hctky=10699110&hdpid=d521f879-7bac-44db-ab27-66c1f15682dc

[CHOSEN]

Con todo el respeto, Si el gran capital no se ha dedicado al inmobiliario, que narices es BlackRook? o Amancio Ortega comprando propiedades en el planeta entero?

Confundes el todo con una parte.
Avda/ La Castellana (Madrid) apenas puede albergar a 1.000 familias (viviendas), de las cuales quizá con suerte Amancio Ortega pudiera llegar a poseer 50 viviendas. Te voy a conceder que Black Rock pudiera tener en cartera 200 viviendas en esa calle, porque desde luego en Vallecas no tiene. ¿A quién le echamos la culpa hasta llegar a los 3 millones de habitantes de Madrid?
Argumentar que Amacio Ortega está metido en el artefacto inmobiliario es simplemente insostenible desde un punto de vista matemático.
Y además en cualquier caso, ese es un problema de Ortega y de los inversores de Black Rock.

[Derby]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/buy-to-let-crisis-trigger-property-fire-sale-landlords-suffer/

Buy-to-let crisis to trigger property fire sale as landlords suffer losses

At least 365,000 ‘timebomb properties’ will become loss-making by the end of 2023

A buy-to-let crisis will expose the landlords of 365,000 properties to losses next year and risks triggering a wave of property fire sales that could drive down house prices.

Hundreds of thousands of buy-to-let properties in England will become loss-making by the end of 2023, according to analysis by the consultancy Capital Economics, as landlords come to the end of fixed-rate mortgages and are forced to endure steep increases in their interest rates.

Experts said these “timebomb properties” will drive down house prices across the market even further, as landlords cut their losses and sell up.

The borrowing costs for a typical landlord coming to the end of a two-year fixed-rate buy-to-let mortgage in 2023 will more than double from 2.89pc to 6.3pc after the Bank of England repeatedly increased interest rates, according to Moneyfacts, an analyst.

For a landlord with a £150,000 loan, this would mean repayments rise from £361 a month to £788 – an increase of £427.

This rise in costs will easily wipe out the profit made by a typical landlord, which is £210 a month, or £2,526 a year, according to Hamptons estate agents.

This financial crunch has raised concerns about the health of the wider housing market, as a flood of cheap properties being listed for sale would place significant downward pressure on house prices.

On Friday one of the country's biggest mortgage lenders, Halifax, warned house prices could fall by 8pc next year. Nationwide has previously stated its worst case scenario is a 30pc drop.

Clive Betts, Labour MP and chairman of the housing select committee, said: “Even if a portion of these properties are listed for sale, it will be a really major shock to the whole housing system.”

Capital Economics estimated 365,000 buy-to-lets will become loss-making by the end of 2023 as their current mortgage deals expire. There are about 4.5m rental homes in England, meaning losses will hit at least 8pc of stock – or one in 13 properties. A further 182,500 buy-to-let homes could becoming loss-making in 2024, if rates do not fall.

Landlords are already racing to sell. We Buy Property, a cash buyer, said there had already been a 70pc rise in landlords wanting to sell properties compared with last year.

Andrew Wishart, of Capital Economics, said: “Even those who will still make a positive cash return may consider selling up.”

It is the latest blow for landlords who have been repeatedly hit by unfavourable tax changes by ministers. The Government phased out tax relief on buy-to-let mortgages between 2017 and 2020, which meant landlords with properties in their own names could no longer offset all of their interest payments. Mr Betts added: “Most people pay tax on their profits, landlords pay tax on their earnings.”

Plans to introduce new minimum energy performance certificate* requirements for landlords will also require many to carry out expensive improvements.

Matthew Jackson, of Mint Financial Services, an adviser, said landlords were sitting on “timebomb properties”. The collapse of the buy-to-let market also has repercussions for tenants, who could find themselves evicted if owners leave the market.

‘I will be forced to cut my losses and sell’

Chris Kelly, 41, has two buy-to-let properties on the south coast with fixed-rate mortgages that expire in February, when his mortgage rate will jump from 3.99pc to 6.8pc. His combined mortgage bill will rise by 54pc to £2,000 per month. In turn, his profits will halve.

Mr Kelly said: “It is not feasible to run these properties without a half decent profit margin. I need a buffer in case I get a bad tenant, or if I need to pay for maintenance.”

He will need to either raise the rents, or sell up. If Mr Kelly sells, he expects to take a 20pc hit on the sales price – a loss of £160,000 across the two properties compared to their current market value. He said: “I would just cut my losses and run.”

The properties will be difficult to sell because they have been converted into houses for multiple occupants, meaning they are split into individual units. Across the properties Mr Kelly has 11 tenants.

He said: “Even if one tenant resists leaving, the sale could drag and drag, and the kind of buyer who will be prepared to hang on will expect to pay less. The properties won’t be attractive to landlords because of the margins, and they will need to be converted back into normal homes for an owner occupier.”

On top of this, house prices are forecast to fall anyway. Mr Kelly added: “We will have to accept lower than market value for our properties.”

[Derby]

Más miedo a la recesión que a la inflación

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-12-16-2022-11671190874

Stocks Fall, Pressured by Mounting Recession Concerns

Business activity fell at sharpest rate in more than 2½ years

Stocks fell again Friday, with investors forced to wrestle anew with the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates and the potential for recession.

The S&P 500 dropped 43.39 points, or 1.1%, to 3852.36 a day after falling 2.5%. Each of the index’s 11 sectors finished in the red.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 281.76 points, or 0.8%, to 32920.46. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite slid 105.11 points, or 1%, to 10705.41. All three major indexes fell at least 1.5% this week, with technology stocks and other growth-sensitive segments suffering the most.

Investors who had been growing optimistic because of moderating inflation now find themselves worried about a slowdown in economic growth. Fresh services and manufacturing data on Friday added to those concerns.

Private-sector bottom lines are suffering from weak consumer demand. Though inflation is cooling, higher input and borrowing costs are weighing on both businesses and households, said S&P Global Market Intelligence. Excluding the Covid-19 downturn, this is the quickest softening in business activity since 2009, the data provider said.

The market rallied early in the week when slowing inflation data stirred hopes that the Federal Reserve could back away from aggressive interest-rate increases. The Fed’s revised rate forecasts on Wednesday and slowing retail sales data on Thursday raised fears of a recession and reversed those gains.

The central bank said Wednesday it planned to lift rates through the spring and to a higher level than previously forecast. Fed forecasts also suggested the central bank would hold rates at their peak until 2024, rattling some investors who had expected officials to begin cutting rates next year.

“They’ve effectively raised the bar on the magnitude and pace by which inflation would have to fall to warrant…a true pivot where they would actually be cutting rates,” said Hani Redha, portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments. “That’s really bearish.”

The European Central Bank said this week it would continue to raise rates in half-percentage-point increments next year. The Bank of England was the only major central bank this week to signal caution about raising rates much higher, saying it believed the U.K. economy was already in a recession.

Some investors are less concerned about the equity selloff, seeing a buying opportunity.

“I think that finally, there’s an opportunity for investors to start putting money to work,” said Nancy Tengler, chief executive and chief investment officer of Laffer Tengler Investments.

Many investors pared back from the stock market during the early stages of Fed tightening, and the looming recession has kept money on the sidelines. Ms. Tengler said that once investors’ focus shifts to corporate earnings and margins—which she believes will prove more resilient than Wall Street expects—sentiment will improve.

Earnings will also receive a boost from the weakening dollar, she said, which has plunged in recent months. The greenback’s record rise put pressure on profits earned abroad for the first three quarters of the year.

Elsewhere, shares of Maxar Technologies more than doubled. The Wall Street Journal reported that Advent International, a private-equity firm, agreed to buy Maxar in a deal that values the satellite firm at about $4 billion.

Global markets broadly retreated. Real estate and telecom stocks weighed on the Stoxx Europe 600, which fell 1.2%. Data published by S&P Global showed the eurozone economy is contracting again in December, but proving more resilient than economists had expected.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.9% and China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended the day roughly flat. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the outlier, rising 0.4%.

In a sign of concern about the world economy, Brent-crude prices fell 2.7% to $79.04 a barrel. The drop unwound some gains the oil benchmark had made this week on the back of easing Covid-19 restrictions in China, which traders expect to boost demand for raw materials.

Treasury prices fell, pushing yields on 10-year notes up to 3.481% from 3.449% Thursday.

After being burned several times this year from piling into bets on a pause in rate increases, investors will be cautious to rush back into stocks, said Edward Park, chief investment officer at Brooks Macdonald. “The message from the summer was: Don’t price in a dovish pivot from a central bank until the central bank tells you to do so,” he said.

Still, Mr. Park expects the Fed ultimately to cut rates next year if inflation falls sufficiently far. “I have a degree of skepticism on how reliant markets are on central-bank forward guidance,” he said.

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/buy-to-let-crisis-trigger-property-fire-sale-landlords-suffer/

Buy-to-let crisis to trigger property fire sale as landlords suffer losses

At least 365,000 ‘timebomb properties’ will become loss-making by the end of 2023

A buy-to-let crisis will expose the landlords of 365,000 properties to losses next year and risks triggering a wave of property fire sales that could drive down house prices.

Hundreds of thousands of buy-to-let properties in England will become loss-making by the end of 2023, according to analysis by the consultancy Capital Economics, as landlords come to the end of fixed-rate mortgages and are forced to endure steep increases in their interest rates.

Experts said these “timebomb properties” will drive down house prices across the market even further, as landlords cut their losses and sell up.

The borrowing costs for a typical landlord coming to the end of a two-year fixed-rate buy-to-let mortgage in 2023 will more than double from 2.89pc to 6.3pc after the Bank of England repeatedly increased interest rates, according to Moneyfacts, an analyst.

For a landlord with a £150,000 loan, this would mean repayments rise from £361 a month to £788 – an increase of £427.

This rise in costs will easily wipe out the profit made by a typical landlord, which is £210 a month, or £2,526 a year, according to Hamptons estate agents.

This financial crunch has raised concerns about the health of the wider housing market, as a flood of cheap properties being listed for sale would place significant downward pressure on house prices.

On Friday one of the country's biggest mortgage lenders, Halifax, warned house prices could fall by 8pc next year. Nationwide has previously stated its worst case scenario is a 30pc drop.

Clive Betts, Labour MP and chairman of the housing select committee, said: “Even if a portion of these properties are listed for sale, it will be a really major shock to the whole housing system.”

Capital Economics estimated 365,000 buy-to-lets will become loss-making by the end of 2023 as their current mortgage deals expire. There are about 4.5m rental homes in England, meaning losses will hit at least 8pc of stock – or one in 13 properties. A further 182,500 buy-to-let homes could becoming loss-making in 2024, if rates do not fall.

Landlords are already racing to sell. We Buy Property, a cash buyer, said there had already been a 70pc rise in landlords wanting to sell properties compared with last year.

Andrew Wishart, of Capital Economics, said: “Even those who will still make a positive cash return may consider selling up.”

It is the latest blow for landlords who have been repeatedly hit by unfavourable tax changes by ministers. The Government phased out tax relief on buy-to-let mortgages between 2017 and 2020, which meant landlords with properties in their own names could no longer offset all of their interest payments. Mr Betts added: “Most people pay tax on their profits, landlords pay tax on their earnings.”

Plans to introduce new minimum energy performance certificate* requirements for landlords will also require many to carry out expensive improvements.

Matthew Jackson, of Mint Financial Services, an adviser, said landlords were sitting on “timebomb properties”. The collapse of the buy-to-let market also has repercussions for tenants, who could find themselves evicted if owners leave the market.

‘I will be forced to cut my losses and sell’

Chris Kelly, 41, has two buy-to-let properties on the south coast with fixed-rate mortgages that expire in February, when his mortgage rate will jump from 3.99pc to 6.8pc. His combined mortgage bill will rise by 54pc to £2,000 per month. In turn, his profits will halve.

Mr Kelly said: “It is not feasible to run these properties without a half decent profit margin. I need a buffer in case I get a bad tenant, or if I need to pay for maintenance.”

He will need to either raise the rents, or sell up. If Mr Kelly sells, he expects to take a 20pc hit on the sales price – a loss of £160,000 across the two properties compared to their current market value. He said: “I would just cut my losses and run.”

The properties will be difficult to sell because they have been converted into houses for multiple occupants, meaning they are split into individual units. Across the properties Mr Kelly has 11 tenants.

He said: “Even if one tenant resists leaving, the sale could drag and drag, and the kind of buyer who will be prepared to hang on will expect to pay less. The properties won’t be attractive to landlords because of the margins, and they will need to be converted back into normal homes for an owner occupier.”

On top of this, house prices are forecast to fall anyway. Mr Kelly added: “We will have to accept lower than market value for our properties.”

Jojojojojo, por favor, no traduzcan esto al español que a más de un "landlord" de aquí le va a dar un yuyu .

Experts said these “timebomb properties” will drive down house prices across the market even further, as landlords cut their losses and sell up.

For a landlord with a £150,000 loan, this would mean repayments rise from £361 a month to £788 – an increase of £427.

This rise in costs will easily wipe out the profit made by a typical landlord

Landlords are already racing to sell. We Buy Property, a cash buyer, said there had already been a 70pc rise in landlords wanting to sell properties compared with last year.

Chris Kelly, 41, has two buy-to-let properties on the south coast with fixed-rate mortgages that expire in February, when his mortgage rate will jump from 3.99pc to 6.8pc. His combined mortgage bill will rise by 54pc to £2,000 per month. In turn, his profits will halve.

He will need to either raise the rents, or sell up.

On top of this, house prices are forecast to fall anyway. Mr Kelly added: “We will have to accept lower than market value for our properties.”

Qué penita, es el fin del sueño del rentismo.

¿Qué se creían que era el mercado? ¿Que las ganancias eran seguras y que si les subían los costes se los iban a poder repercutir tranquilamente a los inquilinos? Sorpresa: el "bucle AV" está roto. Ni vendiendo ni alquilando pueden evitar ya perder dinero.

Con la puerta de la venta clausurada, y sin poder repercutir todas las pérdidas al bicho -el bicho también tiene inflación, aunque sea legal subir el precio al final del contrato, eso no implica que el bicho vaya a aceptar las nuevas condiciones-, el siguiente paso será llorarle a Papá Estado. Aquí mismo ya hemos tenido los primeros ensayos con el ínclito Bernardos diciendo que se debería financiar con dinero público lo que los bichos o pepitos jóvenes ya no pueden asumir. ¿Y cuando el Estado no pueda asumir ese gasto ni queriendo, y se sepa, qué?


En España se va a hacer lo imposible para ocultarlo hasta pasadas las elecciones, lo suelo comentar aquí. Pero no estamos en 2008. No está claro ni que la gasolina vaya a aguantar el año que falta hasta las elecciones, ni que vaya a salir un gobierno. De hecho el escenario más probable ahora mismo es otro bloqueo y otra repetición como en 2016 y 2019.

Tic tac tic tac...

[Mad Men]

Con todo el respeto, Si el gran capital no se ha dedicado al inmobiliario, que narices es BlackRook? o Amancio Ortega comprando propiedades en el planeta entero?

Confundes el todo con una parte.
Avda/ La Castellana (Madrid) apenas puede albergar a 1.000 familias (viviendas), de las cuales quizá con suerte Amancio Ortega pudiera llegar a poseer 50 viviendas. Te voy a conceder que Black Rock pudiera tener en cartera 200 viviendas en esa calle, porque desde luego en Vallecas no tiene. ¿A quién le echamos la culpa hasta llegar a los 3 millones de habitantes de Madrid?
Argumentar que Amacio Ortega está metido en el artefacto inmobiliario es simplemente insostenible desde un punto de vista matemático.
Y además en cualquier caso, ese es un problema de Ortega y de los inversores de Black Rock.

Y añadir que más del 95% de los inmuebles pertenece a pequeños propietarios. Además.Amancio, no compra un pisito en Salamanca, compra un rascaliecos en Seattle o NY con un contrato previo de alquiler con alguna gran empresa y con unas rentas muy ajustadas pero seguras, lejos del trile que llevan entre manos los caseros.

Y aparte de todo eso, el gran capital se dedica al… capital , no a los ladrillos.

Saludos

Saludos

[Derby]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12079413/12/22/Calvino-anuncia-una-prorroga-de-la-moratoria-concursal-a-2023-y-2024.html

Calviño anuncia una prórroga de la moratoria concursal a 2023 y 2024

*La CEOE aplaude la medida
*El Ejecutivo actúa para evitar un aluvión de cierres empresariales

El Gobierno dará más tiempo a las empresas para reequilibrar sus balances. La vicepresidenta primera, Nadia Calviño anunció el viernes en el declaraciones a RAC1 que el Ejecutivo prorrogará la moratoria contable para 2023 y 2024. De esta manera, las pérdidas derivadas del parón de la pandemia no computarán a la hora de determinar si una empresa debe declarar o no un concurso.

La medida supone un alivio para aquellos sectores más afectados por la emergencia sanitaria derivada del estallido del Covid. Según explicó la titular de Asuntos Económicos, se podrán acoger a la medida todas las empresas, "los sectores que se vieron más afectados por la pandemia como el turismo, transporte, hostelería… estas son las empresas que han registrado pérdidas muy importantes durante 2020 y 2021 a pesar de todas las ayudas que se dieron", dijo Calviño.

El presidente de la CEOE, Antonio Garamendi agradeció la medida al Gobierno durante el acto de entrega de premios de la Federación Nacional de Asociaciones de Trabajadores Autónomos-ATA. "Es impresionante y fundamental la medida que vais a tomar antes de fin de año, porque hubieran ido a la quiebra compañías y autónomos. Es una medida, como en su día con los ICO y los ERTE, que realmente era necesaria", dijo en presencia de Calviño.

(...) Noviembre dejó un 71,5% más de concursos de acreedores que en el mismo mes de 2021, con un total de 693 disoluciones, la mayor subida anual en este mes, según los datos del Registro Mercantil difundidos por el Colegio de Registradores.

La resaca de la pandemia en los balances de las empresas se empezó a dejar ver en los meses de junio y julio. El número de concursos aumentó un 21,3% y un 25%, respectivamente, en relación a los mismos meses del 2021. A ello hay que añadir la presión que el encarecimiento de los costes está ejerciendo sobre las cuentas de las empresas. En el caso de las empresas de turismo, éstos se han visto incrementados entre el 25 y 27% a lo largo de 2022. Los precios al público, solo subieron un 9%.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-17/pension-wealth-funds-dump-100-billion-of-stocks-in-quarter-end-rebalancing

Real-Money Funds Dump $100 Billion of Stocks on Rebalancing

*Stock sales break 2022 rebalancing trend that stoked rallies
*Funds that hew to balanced strategies will need to buy bonds

The world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of stocks in the final few weeks of the year, adding to a selloff that’s snowballed since Jerome Powell’s unequivocal message that policymakers will press on with aggressive tightening at the risk of job cuts and a recession.

Notwithstanding their losses this week, equities gained over the quarter, driving up their value relative to other asset classes and forcing managers with strict allocation mandates to sell them to meet targets. Bonds are the likely beneficiaries of sales by sovereign wealth, pension and balanced mutual funds looking to replenish their fixed-income holdings, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and StoneX Financial Inc.

When December wraps up, sovereign wealth funds could be done selling roughly $29 billion in equities while US defined benefit pension plans would need to shift up to $70 billion from equities to bonds to meet their long-term targets and bring them back to September levels, JPMorgan estimates.



The pension and sovereign wealth funds that form the backbone of the investing community typically rebalance their market exposures every quarter to achieve a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds.

“The recent equity market correction and bond rally is consistent with the rebalancing hypothesis,” said Vincent Deluard, a macro strategist at StoneX, who projects that some of the rebalancing has already happened this week. “Investors had to sell stocks and buy bonds to get back to target. It makes sense for this to continue until the end of the year.”

The adjustments away from equities will compound some $30 billion of forced sales expected by trend-chasing quants following a slide that’s taken the S&P 500 down about 6% from its November high.

The latest blow came Wednesday when Chair Powell warned interest rates would remain elevated to tame inflation at the end of the Federal Reserve’s final 2022 meeting, dashing hopes the central bank was preparing to ratchet down its aggressive tightening campaign. Instead policymakers indicated they will keep hiking to a peak beyond what the market had anticipated.

According to JPMorgan calculations, Japan’s $1.6 trillion GPIF, the world’s largest pension fund, would have to sell $17 billion of equities to get back to its target asset allocation. The $1.3 trillion Norwegian Oil Fund could move $12 billion from stocks to bonds.

A spokesperson for Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages the Norwegian Oil Fund, declined to comment. A spokesperson for GPIF didn’t immediately respond to an email outside of business hours seeking comment.

The forecasted sales mark a reversal from the first and second quarter trend where big funds were forced to buy stocks and fanned strong, but short-lived rallies. The last time such funds had to unload stocks to rebalance was in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

Even so, this month’s sales are likely to pale in comparison to last December’s.

“The estimated rebalancing flow was almost double of the one estimated for the current quarter,” Panigirtzoglou said.

[PastorMesetario]

Ojo. No confundir BlackRock con BlackStone.

[Cadavre Exquis]

If IT Workers Stay Home, What Happens to 'the Most Empty Downtown in America'?
Posted by EditorDavid on Saturday December 17, 2022 @04:34PM from the San-Francisco-suffers dept.

"Today San Francisco has what is perhaps the most deserted major downtown in America," reports the New York Times. "On any given week, office buildings are at about 40 percent of their prepandemic occupancy..."

[T]he vacancy rate has jumped to 24 percent from 5 percent since 2019. Occupancy of the city's offices is roughly 7 percentage points below that of those in the average major American city, according to Kastle, the building security firm.

More ominous for the city is that its downtown business district — the bedrock of its economy and tax base — revolves around a technology industry that is uniquely equipped and enthusiastic about letting workers stay home indefinitely. In the space of a few months, Jeremy Stoppelman, the chief executive of Yelp, went from running a company that was rooted in the city to vacating Yelp's longtime headquarters and allowing its roughly 4,400 employees to work from anywhere in their country.

"I feel like I've seen the future," he said.

Decisions like that, played out across thousands of remote and hybrid work arrangements, have forced office owners and the businesses that rely on them to figure out what's next. This has made the San Francisco area something of a test case in the multibillion-dollar question of what the nation's central business districts will look like when an increased amount of business is done at home.... The city's chief economist, Ted Egan, has warned about a looming loss of tax revenue as vacancies pile up. Brokers have tried to counter that narrative by talking up a "flight to quality" in which companies upgrade to higher-end space. Business groups and city leaders hope to recast the urban core as a more residential neighborhood built around people as well as businesses but leave out that office rents would probably have to plunge for those plans to be viable.

Below the surface of spin is a downtown that is trying to adapt to what amounts to a three-day workweek.... On Wednesdays, offices in San Francisco are at roughly 50 percent of their prepandemic levels; on Fridays, they're not even at 30 percent.... In a typical downturn, the turnaround is a fairly simple equation of rents falling far enough to attract new tenants and the economy improving fast enough to stimulate new demand. But now there's a more existential question of what the point of a city's downtown even is.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/opinion/2022/12/16/639cd114468aebb5148b4594.html

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/12/16/639c512ee5fdeadd588b459a.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/12/17/639ccd02468aeb60208b4689.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/pais-vasco/2022/12/17/639b0bba468aeb3a3d8b4604.html

Saludos.