Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022

[JENOFONTE10]

CAMBIO 'MUY ESTRUCTURAL' DE MODELO

¿Jerga del doble grado por Deusto?.

Saludos.

Era en Comillas.

-Diplomado en la Especialidad Jurídico-Económica (Abogado Economista), por la
Universidad de Deusto (Bilbao), con Premio Extraordinario Fin de Carrera y
Primer Premio Nacional de Terminación de Estudios Universitarios (1978).
[...]
https://www.r4.com/resources/pdf/cv.pdf

Saludos.
_______
P.S.: cerca del anticuario 'con poder de fijación de precio' ( https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estatua_ecuestre_de_Marco_Aurelio )

[JENOFONTE10]

El pinchazo de la burbuja inmobiliaria ya está a la vuelta de la esquina en el conjunto europeo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7IHNNur6h0

Saludos.

[Derby]

El pinchazo de la burbuja inmobiliaria ya está a la vuelta de la esquina en el conjunto europeo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7IHNNur6h0

Saludos.

Ayer lo comentaba el periodista alemán Holger Zschaepitz del Welt:

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1604375409931571201

@SchuldensuehnerIt is certainly no coincidence that the German Housing Bubble has burst, as the #ECB is also no longer pumping fresh liquidity into the market and is shrinking its balance sheet. Europa German House Price Index runs in tandem w/ECB balance sheet.

[saturno]

Bingooooo !

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097

Should I step down as head of Twitter? I will abide by the results of this poll.

    Yes                        57.5%
    No                        42.5%

17,502,391 votes·Final results

12:20 AM · Dec 19, 2022
251.9K  Retweets 164.9K Quote Tweets 8K

Aparte de que tiene montones de seguidores con nick cryptofans
veo que muchos de los comentarios lo han captado todo,

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604623424164282368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1604623626904403969%7Ctwgr%5E93860f3cfa4ec8334d8bc8898b43148f794898f1%7Ctwcon%5Es2_

As the saying goes, be careful what you wish, as you might get it

12:43 AM · Dec 19, 2022
40.4K  Retweets 11.8K  Quote Tweets 487.2K  Likes

Gane o pierda,

Si pierde, Twitter ya será la primera redsocial donde le usuarios entrarän con derecho de voto para nombrar o destituir al CEO, y Musk es mayoriia de capital, ¿Qué van a hacer en la asamblea general ?

Y si gana, pues termina de limpiar Twitter y.... convoca constituyente

Es de cajón,  juaaaa 


¡Diviértanse!


El hilo no me desfila con mi mini-pc pero es interesante;

No encuentro otro tweet donde decia algo asi que lo que importa no es el poder sino que sea divertirdo "entertainement". Mecachis.


XGracias WolfgangK y Henda

[Derby]

Recupero esta noticia de la semana pasada, que me pasó desapercibida pero que Nassim Taleb ha destacado en su TW:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1604632557764677632

@nntaleb Get ready. Last week, in NYC, a chunk of residential building was sold 42% lower than its acquisition price (2012, at a discount owing to the crash).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/nyc-s-mercedes-house-rental-apartments-sell-for-100-million

NYC’s Mercedes House Rental Apartments Sell for $100 Million

Empire Capital Holdings is in contract to buy the 162 units from Invesco. 

A group of apartments at Mercedes House, a luxury residential and retail complex on Manhattan’s West Side, is in contract to sell for a little more than $100 million. 

Empire Capital Holdings, which specializes in acquiring discounted commercial and apartment properties, is buying the 162 rental units, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified citing details about the transaction. The seller is Invesco Ltd., which acquired the units years ago for $170 million.

Soaring interest rates are cutting into valuations for apartments, which have been among the most favored property types for US real estate investors in recent years because of a general housing shortage and affordability challenges for homebuyers. Prices for New York-area rental buildings are down almost 16% from the fourth quarter of 2021, according to Green Street. 

The apartments are part of the 974-unit S-shaped complex with views of the Hudson River built in 2009 as a condo project named after the Mercedes-Benz brand. Slow sales during the financial crisis led to conversion of part of the project to rental apartments, which Invesco bought. 

Manhattan’s rental market had been super competitive earlier this year, a boon to landlords. But median rents on new leases have eased since then and were up just slightly in November, according to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate.

Representatives of Empire Capital declined to comment. An Invesco spokesperson didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.

The sale was brokered by Adam Spies and Doug Harmon of Cushman & Wakefield, who also declined to comment. Commercial Observer first reported the news.

[Derby]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/christmas-shoppers-spending-over-half-monthly-income-gifts

Some Christmas shoppers spending over half their monthly income on gifts

Memphis, Tenn. was one of the least generous cities only spending 11% of their monthly wage on presents

[sudden and sharp]

[ ¡Diviértanse!... nos dicen...    ]

[Derby]

Predicciones para el 2023...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brendarichardson/2022/12/19/experts-predict-what-the-housing-market-will-look-like-in-2023/

Experts Predict What The Housing Market Will Look Like In 2023

The housing market is sending clearer signals that historically low mortgage rates and the home-buying frenzy have come to an end. As we near the end of 2022, here’s a look at the expectations of real estate experts for 2023.

Danielle Hale, Realtor.com chief economist: After several years of an unambiguous sellers’ market, the 2023 housing market could feel more like a nobody’s market. We expect to see some buyer advantages in the form of 22.8% more homes for sale, however, the increase will result largely from homes taking longer to sell amid challenging affordability conditions. For-sale homes will remain high-priced with the national annual median price for 2023 expected to advance another 5.4%—less than half the pace observed in 2022. Still high prices mean that homeowners are likely to walk away from a home sale with significant equity if they decide to venture into the market and can find a buyer. On the whole, however, we expect home sales to be dramatically lower, down 14.1% compared to 2022 as both buyers and sellers pull back from a housing market and economy in transition. We expect the annual tally for 2023 to be roughly in line with the recent pace of home sales in late 2022.

For many potential first-time home buyers, 2023 will herald a delayed dream rather than a celebration as home costs exceed what’s possible on their budget and income. As fewer households make the jump to homeownership, increased rental demand could help keep rents moving higher. Nationwide, the median rental is projected to increase 6.3% in price, even as an influx of new multifamily housing helps to better meet rental demand. Renters looking to save in the year ahead may consider moving further out to the suburbs.

A still strong jobs market will keep incomes growing at a faster than historically average pace (3.9%), but they will not exceed expected inflation (4.1%) which means that many households will continue to make tough budget tradeoffs. After years of high-flying tech cities dominating real estate who’s-who lists, this year's top performers are expected to be modest, mid-sized domestic industry hubs in the Northeast, South, and Midwest. The slow and steady real estate markets in these areas where homes continue to be affordable will be the stars in 2023, better weathering the affordability challenges that loom ahead.

Bob Pinnegar, president and chief executive officer of the National Apartment Association: Pursuing sustainable and responsible solutions to address our nation’s housing affordability crisis will remain a steadfast priority in the new year. Our nation’s affordability challenges stem from an alarming supply/demand imbalance, and to properly address this we must build 4.3 million new apartments by 2035.

On the economic side, supply chain issues have begun to ease and will hopefully continue to in the year ahead. While jobs are steady, the labor market faces challenges in areas like construction, where workers are needed. Inflation is starting to show signs of easing, but any of those impacts are unlikely to be seen until the end of 2023.

State and local lawmakers continue to consider damaging policies like rent control, which more than 40 years of academic research and real-life case studies consistently reiterate is ineffective in addressing affordability. Rent control distorts the housing market by acting as a deterrent and disincentive for rental housing development and expedites the deterioration of existing housing stock. As these policies continue to be discussed, the rental housing industry will continue to advocate for responsible solutions – like revitalizing Section 8 and removing barriers to apartment development - that will improve affordability challenges long-term.

Nick Bailey, president and CEO of RE/MAX, LLC: One thing I can say for certain about the housing market in 2023 is that no matter the macro-economic conditions, Americans will continue to buy and sell millions of homes.  Generally speaking, when we’re talking about the overall health of the housing market, most people are approaching that conversation from the lens of an investor. Will the market bottom out or have we hit the top? That’s an important conversation, but the truth is, people are getting married, divorced, moving to care for aging family members, relocating for career opportunities and so on, every single day. And for those people, it’s less about the interest rate or mortgage rates that week and more about their present situation and whether they can afford a house that fits their needs.

I’m optimistic that 2023’s spring selling season will be a bright spot as levels of inflation get more under control. There will still be extreme demand as new construction just can’t get out of the ground fast enough, and the Millennial home buyers, who make up a huge demographic, are primed to make their move. According to a recent survey conducted by RE/MAX in partnership with SWNS Media Group, 84% of Gen Z, 79% of Millennials and 61% of survey respondents 77 or older plan to buy a house or condo in the next few years. In my opinion, 2023 will be a better year for housing than many people think, especially because we'll no longer have year-over-year comparisons to 2021 – an historic outlier that made 2022 seem less than what it really was.

Jacob Channel, senior economist for LendingTree: The housing market will remain tough for many would-be buyers. While mortgage rates might stabilize, prices could decline, and buyers may be able to negotiate with sellers more in 2023 than they were able to over the height of the pandemic, that doesn’t mean that buying a home is suddenly going to become a walk in the park. On the contrary, affordability challenges will likely persist for many, owing to rates remaining steep and supply remaining limited.

Borrowers shouldn’t expect rates to fall to anywhere near their record 2021 lows, or even to as low as they were at the start of 2022. Home prices won’t necessarily fall everywhere, but a combination of relatively high rates and weak home buyer demand will probably push prices down nationwide this year. Although a 5% to 10% drop may seem steep, it’s important to keep in mind that because home values rose so much over the height of the pandemic, declines this year are unlikely to totally wipe out the gains that many homeowners saw over the past few years.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors and senior vice president of research: 4.78 million existing homes will be sold, prices will remain stable and Atlanta will be the top real estate market to watch in 2023 and beyond. Home sales will decline by 6.8% compared to 2022 (5.13 million) and the median home price will reach $385,800 – an increase of just 0.3% from this year ($384,500).

Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines. However, markets in California may be the exception, with San Francisco, for example, likely to register price drops of 10–15%. Rent prices will rise 5% in 2023, following a 7% increase in 2022. Foreclosure rates will remain at historically low levels in 2023, comprising less than 1% of all mortgages. The gross domestic product will grow by 1.3%, roughly half the typical historical pace of 2.5%. After eclipsing 7% in late 2022, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will settle at 5.7% as the Fed slows the pace of rate hikes to control inflation. That is lower than the pre-pandemic historical rate of 8%.

Taylor Marr, Redfin deputy chief economist: Slowing inflation and the hope of the Fed easing rate hikes in the new year are likely to bring mortgage rates down further and thereby improve homebuying demand. But don’t call it a comeback or even a recovery yet; demand is still way down from its peak. We’re keeping a close eye on the labor market for confirmation that inflation will continue slowing. A strong job market like the one we have now contributes to inflation because it pushes up wages and leads to higher prices. Though it seems counterintuitive, a slight uptick in unemployment and/or slower economic growth would likely help bring mortgage rates down further. If that happens, the increase we’re seeing in early-stage demand could translate to an uptick in pending sales in early 2023.

Selma Hepp, interim lead of the Office of The Chief Economist at CoreLogic: Following the recent mortgage rate surge above 7%, real estate activity and consumer sentiment regarding the housing market took a nosedive. Home price growth continued to approach single digits in October, and it will move in that direction for the rest of the year and into 2023. However, while some housing markets have seen significant recalibration since the spring price peak and are likely to post losses in 2023, further deteriorating for-sale inventory, some relief in mortgage rate increases and relatively positive economic news may help eventually stabilize home prices.

Jeff Tucker, Zillow senior economist: The rental market is cooling, but to this point it hasn’t brought any real relief for renters. However, there are signs affordability may improve in the coming months. Annual rent growth has fallen from a record 17.2% annual growth in February to 8.4% year-over-year growth in November.

Renters looking to sign a new lease in 2023 should feel encouraged about this data, but still need to keep a close eye on the market and act quickly when they find a rental that fits their needs and budget. Rents are still higher than they were pre-pandemic, so tradeoffs and flexibility will still be necessary into next year. Renters facing a renewal should know that they’ve got more bargaining power this year and should carefully consider the prices of other nearby rental options when negotiating a lease renewal.

Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO and founder of Realty ONE Group: Homeowners will stay in homes due to locked-in lower interest rates. Regarding Realtors, 300,000 to 400,000 new licensees entered the real estate market over the past couple of years (similar to the relative percentage growth of NAR members between 2005-07).

Many top-producing professionals and teams that have been closing $100 million per year in transaction sales, chose this career path during real estate’s hot markets (2012-2020). So, they haven’t experienced a severe downward cycle like this since 2008. There are more than 90,000 real estate brokerages in America. Of these, many will consolidate, and others will get wiped out. Their Plan B funding source for access to capital, just to stay afloat, are friends and family.

The average interest rate on a credit card is now at a high of over 18% and expected to be in the 20’s soon. Home equity lines of credit are increasingly popular during high inflationary times.

Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS: Over the past year, the housing market underwent an about-face as rapidly rising mortgage rates dramatically slowed home sales activity. In 2023, the housing market is expected to continue its correction and the housing market will start to look more normal, though we may need to reconsider what normal means. Mortgage rates will decline slowly in 2023, though will remain above 6% for most of the year. While not high by historic standards, 6% mortgage rates along with fast-rising prices will also keep some prospective buyers out of the market. Bright MLS’ forecast suggests that there will only be 4.87 million home sales in 2023, down 6% compared to 2022, and the lowest level of sales activity in nine years.

The median home price is expected to be relatively flat in 2023, rising just 0.3% year-over-year. But the national figure does not tell the whole story. Local markets that are more affordable and where the local economy is strong will see stronger price growth in the year ahead. In contrast, higher-cost metros, where housing affordability is a challenge, are at greater risk of price drops. In addition, pandemic boom towns where demand surged will also see greater price corrections in 2023. The frenzied pace of home sales activity during the pandemic was not typical or sustainable, nor is it good for a healthy, stable housing market. A return to a slower market with more modest price growth is a good place to be headed in 2023.

L.D. Salmanson, CEO of Cherre, a data integration and insights platform: Looking at the current market, we are seeing fewer transactions and increasing days on market. Low absorption rates indicate a price gap between buyers and sellers. Historically, this environment had been temporary — people lost their jobs while still carrying mortgages at variable rates. This will likely force sellers to have a reality check in 2023, needing to lower prices to make the sale. As interest rates continue to rise, the housing market is less appealing to potential buyers and mortgage applications are extremely low. Though a few very specific markets have sustained demand, most markets will see large corrections, and some markets, like South Florida, will even experience 20-30% price drops.

Any time there is a hot housing market with a sharp increase in the median home price, there is the possibility of a housing bubble. After home prices hit their peak in June, we saw the first decline in home price growth in 10 years, with the lagging Case-Shiller Index showing price increases falling 1.3%. Black Knight also reported that U.S. home equity dropped 7.6% in Q3, marking the largest drop since 2009. Though we are not technically currently in a housing bubble or experiencing a major market crash, declining prices coupled with interest rates climbing higher than 7.14% indicates that we are experiencing a market downturn that will continue into 2023.

Lazer Sternhell, CEO of Cignature Realty: The federal fund’s target rate is projected to hit 4.6% in 2023, which makes it extremely difficult for investors to evaluate multifamily deals: what will interest rates be at closing, what refinancing events will be available down the line, and what will an exit strategy look like? Investor preference will continue to be focused on free market buildings in prime locations.

Instability in the capital markets and rising interest rates have significantly curtailed multifamily investment activity and higher commercial mortgage rates are sending buyers to the sidelines. Private buyer tolerance for volatility keeps investment activity afloat. If rates stabilize in 2023, institutional investors will provide a further tailwind to the multifamily investment market.

Multifamily’s underlying solid fundamentals over the last 10 years delivered an average annual total return of over 9%. We expect multifamily to perform above average in 2023 despite economic headwinds and ongoing capital market disruptions. Multifamily real estate is one of the best asset classes for hedging inflation. Investors will wait for the multifamily market to stabilize.

Marc Minor, CEO and co-founder of Higharc: 2023 will see the continuation of the suburban migration. Smaller cities will be winners in 2023. As the tussle over remote versus in-office work calms down, Millennials who were previously waiting on the sidelines will settle in — likely not in the major cities they started the pandemic in. More than 900,000 new homes have been built every year for the last 60 years, on average. Most of the new homes being built today are in smaller metro areas. Expect this dynamic to drive housing in 2023 and 2024. New construction homes are going to be brought to market in line with the sturdy pace we were seeing pre-pandemic. It is no secret, the U.S. has a deficit of 3.8 million homes. The strength of demand is there and the need for the construction of new homes has never been higher.

[Derby]

Previsiones de Idealista

https://www.economiadigital.es/inmobiliario/idealista-lanza-previsiones-mercado-inmobiliario.html

Idealista lanza sus previsiones del mercado inmobiliario para 2023: esto es lo que ocurrirá

Idealista lanza un mensaje al sector inmobiliario: ya se empiezan a apreciar ciertas inercias de relajación en las tendencias que pronostican un 2023 más moderado

(...)+«Para 2023, estimamos una caída del volumen de transacciones hipotecarias para compra de vivienda respecto a este año, aunque seguramente sigamos viendo un fuerte dinamismo en el cambio de hipotecas variables a fijas (vía subrogación o cancelación y apertura de un nuevo préstamo), lo cual amortiguará el impacto. Y aunque las condiciones de las hipotecas fijas se han encarecido mucho, han irrumpido con fuerza las hipotecas mixtas, con condiciones más ventajosas y que están ganando terreno y creemos seguirán siendo una de las mejores alternativas para los consumidores durante el año que viene».

+«Donde el cambio será más notable es en el número de compraventas de viviendas que se cerrarán en 2023, donde posiblemente veamos una reducción del número de operaciones a nivel nacional y un estancamiento en los mercados más dinámicos. 2022 ha sido el mejor año en lo que a compraventas se refiere desde el estallido de la burbuja inmobiliaria y acabará con más de 600.000 viviendas vendidas. Es posible que en 2023 el sector comience a volver al entorno de las 500.000 viviendas vendidas en un año».

+«La oferta disponible de viviendas en venta en el mercado se estabilizará, tras caer un 7% en el último año. Los tiempos de comercialización muy posiblemente se alargarán y los compradores volverán a tener opciones entre las que elegir. No será un proceso homogéneo y las zonas con menos demanda lo notarán antes y con más fuerza».

+«Los precios no han crecido con fuerza en 2022. Aunque en los últimos meses se ha notado cierto enfriamiento en los grandes mercados, acabarán en positivo en casi todos. Parece poco probable que asistamos a caídas de precio generalizadas en los grandes mercados durante los próximos meses, probablemente, los precios se enfriarán y tomarán una senda estable».

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/sninobecerra/status/1604810265035702272

No hay nada como contar con el asesoramiento de Gonzalo Bernardos para redactar un artículo panfleto sobre el futuro del mercado inmobiliario en España...

Cómo será alquilar un piso en 2023: éxodo de la compra al alquiler, 'boom' de pisos compartidos y récord de precios en grandes capitales

Inma Benedito | 18 diciembre 2022

REUTERS/Daniele Mascolo

• En 2023, los alquileres asisten a una paradoja: cuanto más falta haga alquilar, más difícil será conseguirlo.
• La crisis de precios viene a agravar los problemas de un mercado a punto de explotar.

En 2023, los alquileres asisten a una paradoja: cuanto más necesario sea vivir de alquiler, más difícil será conseguirlo.

Si el mercado del alquiler en España ya sufría un desequilibrio enorme, con muchos inquilinos y pocos pisos para alquilar, la crisis de precios ha venido a agravar este problema todavía más y las consecuencias empezarán a palparse en 2023.

Los expertos consultados por Business Insider España vaticinan un trasvase de la demanda de compra al alquiler, lo que tensionará todavía más los precios. Para sobrevivir al encarecimiento de los alquileres en tiempos de inflación descontrolada, habrá un boom de pisos compartidos y habitaciones de alquiler.

El éxodo de la compra al alquiler

La inflación lleva meses erosionando el poder adquisitivo de los hogares a toda velocidad y la subida de tipos de interés no para de encarecer los préstamos hipotecarios. Como consecuencia, comprarse un piso ha dejado de ser una posibilidad para muchos.

"Muchas familias que tenían previsto comprarse una vivienda este año o el que viene, ahora se han visto afectadas por la crisis y se van a retirar del mercado de compra y probablemente vayan al de alquiler", resume Ferran Font, jefe de Estudios de pisos.com.

¿La prueba? El sorpasso de la demanda de alquiler frente a la de compra. Hace 6 meses, la demanda de alquiler era del 38% y la de la compra, del 50%. A finales de 2022, la postal ha dado un vuelco y la demanda de alquiler vuelve a liderar el mercado, con un 46%, frente al 44% de compra, según datos de Fotocasa.

"Se trata de un incremento demasiado abultado para un periodo de tiempo tan corto, lo que pone rápidamente más presión sobre la escasa oferta de este mercado. El encarecimiento de los créditos hipotecarios ha ocasionado que los demandantes de compra frustrados se pasen al mercado del arrendamiento al no poder realizar la compra", corrobora María Matos, directora de Estudios de Fotocasa.

Inquilinos que no pueden pagar y precios que se disparan

REUTERS/Nacho Doce

A diferencia de la compra de vivienda, donde la demanda puede lidiar con subidas de precio porque cuenta con la ayuda de la financiación hipotecaria, el del alquiler es un mercado mucho más inelástico: si los alquileres suben y la demanda no puede pagarlos, los precios terminan ajustándose a la baja.

Esto debería ocurrir ahora. Teniendo en cuenta la pérdida de poder adquisitivo de los inquilinos, lo lógico sería pensar que los alquileres también caerán. Eso ocurrirá en aquellas ciudades donde, por causa de la crisis de precios, termine habiendo más oferta de pisos en alquiler que potenciales inquilinos.

El problema es que, en aquellas ciudades con los alquileres más tensionados, como Madrid o Barcelona, el desajuste entre oferta y demanda es tal que, por mucho que el precio suba, la demanda terminará absorbiendo las subidas. Esto será así mientras la oferta no aumente.

En España, aproximadamente la cuarta parte de las viviendas se habitan en régimen de alquiler. "Haría falta un incremento de entre 1 y 2 millones de viviendas destinadas a alquiler para poder  satisfacer la sólida y creciente demanda", diagnostica José María Basañez, presidente de Tecnitasa.

Ya de por sí faltan pisos en alquiler para dar cabida a la demanda actual. Pero, con la crisis de precios, esa demanda ha crecido todavía más.

"El freno de la demanda de compra de vivienda ocasiona que los ciudadanos aumenten su demanda en el alquiler y esto hará que el desequilibrio entre oferta y demanda sea todavía más pronunciado y los precios continúen desfasados", aclara Matos.

Además, añade Matos, la inflación también está influyendo en el alquiler de otra forma: "El precio de las viviendas que salen al mercado también es más alto porque el propietario quiere seguir obteniendo rentabilidad".

Burbuja de alquiler de habitaciones

REUTERS/Stelios Misinas

Como la demanda no deja de aumentar —entre estudiantes, turistas y viajeros de negocios, jóvenes y no tan jóvenes que no pueden permitirse la compra— pero el número de pisos en alquiler es cada vez menor, los inquilinos tendrán que buscar otras opciones: en 2023, los expertos vaticinan un boom de personas buscando alquileres compartidos.

"En 2023, el producto estrella va a ser el alquiler por habitaciones. La gente no va a poder alquilar pisos y empezará a buscar habitaciones", vaticina Gonzalo Bernardos, profesor titular y director del Máster Inmobiliario de la Universidad de Barcelona.

"Está creciendo con fuerza la presión de la demanda sobre el cada vez más reducido stock", explican desde Idealista. En el último año se han duplicado los contactos de potenciales inquilinos a anuncios de habitaciones compartidas: "Al haberse reducido tanto la oferta disponible, se percibe una mayor dificultad de acceso a las habitaciones", añaden.

Como consecuencia, Bernardos calcula que el precio de las habitaciones podría encarecerse entre un 5% y un 10% en 2023.

A la demanda convencional de habitaciones, más centrada en estudiantes y jóvenes, se le sumarán otras personas cuya situación económica ya no les permite seguir viviendo solos. Este cambio vendrá motivado en parte por el frenazo en la creación de empleo.

"En 2023, el mercado laboral no tirará como ahora y la capacidad de pago de mucha gente no aumentará. Vamos a ver alquileres compartidos de forma masiva. La escasa oferta te echa del mercado y te relega a las habitaciones", augura Bernardos.

Batiendo máximos en grandes capitales

"El mercado del alquiler se encuentra en una situación crítica, marcada por las subidas desorbitadas de los precios", lamenta Matos. Los jóvenes, los grandes protagonistas del mercado, serán los más afectados por estas subidas, al contar con rentas más bajas y sufrir una situación más generalizada de precariedad.

La paradoja es cómo, a pesar de la crisis de precios y su impacto en el bolsillo de los hogares, los alquileres continuarán batiendo máximos históricos en los mercados donde más dificultades hay.

"Castilla-La Mancha y Aragón son las únicas regiones que todavía no han alcanzado máximos históricos en el precio del alquiler. El resto de comunidades ya han superado esta barrera desde julio de este mismo año y van marcando récord mes a mes", apunta Matos.

En 2023, el mercado se comportará de manera muy heterogénea. La concentración de demanda en grandes capitales seguirá tensando precios por encima de máximos, mientras que, en ciudades con mercados poco dinámicos, mayor paro y donde la inflación haya afectado más a la demanda, los alquileres sí podrían caer.

"La previsión es que, en las áreas con más fuerte demanda de alquiler en determinadas zonas de ciudades como Madrid, Palma de Mallorca o Málaga, donde la oferta es insuficiente, continuarán subiendo los precios de los alquileres de viviendas en 2023 por encima de la media", pronostica Basáñez.

En cambio, en plazas con menor demanda, puede ocurrir todo lo contrario: el deterioro de las finanzas de los hogares reducirá el número de potenciales inquilinos, de manera que los propietarios tendrán que ajustar precios para que la demanda existente los absorba.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-19/biden-administration-lays-out-plan-to-cut-us-homelessness-by-25

Biden Administration Calls for 25% Cut in Homelessness by 2025

The Biden administration’s new strategic plan to address homelessness includes a focus on equity and a promise to help cities build more housing.

The White House released its annual homelessness count on Dec. 19 along with the Biden administration’s first strategic plan to combat the crisis, with an aim to cut the number of people without housing by 25% over the next 2 years.

Conducted on a single night in January, the latest census found that the overall number of Americans living in homelessness showed no real change between 2020 and 2022, rising just a fraction of a percent to 582,462. The White House said the results show that the administration’s emergency actions around housing are working: While precarity surged across the US during the pandemic, a new wave of mass homelessness did not follow.

Yet the figures also show the stubborn nature of the problem and the difficult road forward, since many relief measures have expired even as the underlying constraints on affordable housing supply persist. Meanwhile, city leaders in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle are struggling with public concern and frustration about encampments of unsheltered residents, which have become more visible in business districts as office occupancy remains depressed.

The strategic plan by the US Interagency Council on Homelessness, the task force for coordinating the administration’s work across 19 federal agencies, calls to slash homelessness by one-quarter by January 2025. The plan provides an overview for how billions of dollars unlocked by the CARES Act and American Rescue Plan can be used for rehousing people. Much of the plan details ways to better coordinate delivery of these resources. For example, it calls for expanding state and local use of federal Homeless Management Information Systems data as well as integrating these data with other sources such as corrections figures and Medicaid.

The plan also envisions a federal campaign to engage with landlords to encourage them to accept tenants with federal rent subsidies — just one example of the 30 strategies and 180 actions outlined by the plan.

Much of the document envisions structural reforms for the federal government to make planning around homelessness more focused on equity. The Biden administration wants to see more people with lived experience with homelessness promoted within federal workgroups, local advisory councils and other programs. With a new mindset around personnel and inclusivity, the plan states, the federal government is recommitting itself to “person-centered, trauma-informed and evidence-based solutions.”

With this document, the Biden administration has adopted a philosophy known as targeted universalism, a concept that originated at the Haas Institute for a Fair and Inclusive Society at the University of California at Berkeley. A 2019 primer by Stephen Menendian, Wendy Ake and Haas Institute director john a. powell explains this framework as a way to reap the benefits of both universal programs (which are more popular but work less well for marginalized groups) and targeted programs (which are less popular but work better for marginalized groups).

Within the realm of housing policy, this why-not-both approach means “a universal reduction goal with targeted and tailored solutions based on the structures, cultures, and geographies of certain groups to help them overcome unique barriers,” according to the White House document.

The new data on homelessness would seem to bear out such an approach, at least on paper. While the number of Americans living in homelessness rose only 0.3%, some groups saw dramatic hikes. The number of chronically homeless people increased 16% between 2020 and 2022, for example. But other groups saw declines: The number of homeless veterans continues to fall (a trend begun under President Barack Obama) while the number of homeless families with children dipped (consistent with the now-lapsed Child Tax Credit expansion). Black and Indigenous people continue to be overrepresented among homeless populations.

“The federal government has a critically important role in shaping our nation’s response to homelessness,” said Ann Oliva, CEO of the National Alliance to End Homelessness, in a statement, describing the new vision as “an ambitious, strategic, and accountable plan that demonstrates a responsible commitment to that role.”

The Biden administration’s plan shows that it believes a shift in strategy rooted primarily in structural reforms can lead to major reductions in homelessness in the near term. Yet the document also acknowledges that homelessness is downstream of the broader affordable housing crisis, and preventing people from falling into homelessness even as the government works to put homeless people into homes will likely need to happen without any additional funding from Congress.

Local leaders on the front lines of the crisis, such as Los Angeles Mayor-elect Karen Bass, will be responsible for implementing many of the policies outlined by the White House. The new target for 2025 elaborates on the Biden administration’s “House America” campaign to help city, county, state and tribal governments set goals for housing people in shelters or sleeping outdoors. San Antonio was the first community to announce that it had met and exceeded its goal by finding homes for more than 1,600 people by the end of 2022.

So far, more than 100 localities have taken the House America pledge.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[sudden and sharp]

[ Self... Reported.  ]

[el malo]

Bingooooo !

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097

Should I step down as head of Twitter? I will abide by the results of this poll.

    Yes                        57.5%
    No                        42.5%

17,502,391 votes·Final results

12:20 AM · Dec 19, 2022
251.9K  Retweets 164.9K Quote Tweets 8K

Aparte de que tiene montones de seguidores con nick cryptofans
veo que muchos de los comentarios lo han captado todo,

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604623424164282368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1604623626904403969%7Ctwgr%5E93860f3cfa4ec8334d8bc8898b43148f794898f1%7Ctwcon%5Es2_

As the saying goes, be careful what you wish, as you might get it

12:43 AM · Dec 19, 2022
40.4K  Retweets 11.8K  Quote Tweets 487.2K  Likes

Gane o pierda,

Si pierde, Twitter ya será la primera redsocial donde le usuarios entrarän con derecho de voto para nombrar o destituir al CEO, y Musk es mayoriia de capital, ¿Qué van a hacer en la asamblea general ?

Y si gana, pues termina de limpiar Twitter y.... convoca constituyente

Es de cajón,  juaaaa 


¡Diviértanse!


El hilo no me desfila con mi mini-pc pero es interesante;

No encuentro otro tweet donde decia algo asi que lo que importa no es el poder sino que sea divertirdo "entertainement". Mecachis.


XGracias WolfgangK y Henda

Este Elon es un jefazo. Es de primero de referéndum poner "sí" a la opción que quieres que salga elegida. Que haya puesto "sí" a dejar el cargo y haya hecho la encuesta de esa manera tan provocadora me dice que ya tenía pensado irse y sólo le quedaba la puesta en escena.

Ahora en vez de irse por la puerta de atrás se va por la puerta grande al grito de "¿Veis cómo molo? Me decís que me vaya y me voy".

Si dentro de poco no lo vemos en política es porque tiene un plan B todavía mejor

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/two-chinese-property-developers-raise-funds-via-discounted-share-sales-2022-12-20/

Two Chinese property developers to raise funds via discounted share sales

HONG KONG, Dec 20 (Reuters) - CIFI Holdings (0884.HK) on Tuesday became the latest Chinese property developer to raise funds by selling new shares at discounted prices, while Agile Group (3383.HK) announced its second such capital raising since November.

After a raft of government measures supported their share prices, a number of developers including heavyweights like Country Garden have since November turned to top-up share placements.

The method, in which a controlling shareholder sells existing shares and then the company issues the same amount of new shares to them, allows funds to be raised without any large dilution in stake for the controlling shareholder.

Shanghai-based CIFI, which is undergoing an offshore debt restructuring, said it would raise HK$957.6 million ($123 million) by selling shares at HK$1.14 apiece, a 14% discount to Monday’s closing price.

Guangzhou-based Agile said it would raise HK$617.2 million ($79.3 million) by selling shares at HK$2.32 apiece, a 17.4% discount to Monday’s closing price. It is the second top-up placement for Agile since November when it raised HK$783 million.

The companies, which saw their shares slide in line with the discounted share sale prices, said they would use the proceeds to repay existing debt.

China’s property sector has over the past one and a half- years been grappling with a severe debt crisis – initially triggered by government moves to rein in ballooning debt – with many developers defaulting as they struggle to sell apartments and raise funds.