Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Invierno 2022

[Saturio]

"


Y en esto, la confesión de Twilio. Sobredimensionaron la plantilla. Miren cómo Apple es de las pocas importantes que no despide. Uno de sus secretos: en pandemia no inflaron la plantilla.

Pues va a ser que no es una confesión sino una excusa barata.

 

Full Year 2020 Financial Highlights

    Revenue of $1.76 billion for the full year 2020, up 55% year-over-year, including $23 million from Twilio Segment starting on November 2, 2020 (the date of acquisition).

    GAAP loss from operations of $492.9 million for the full year 2020, compared with GAAP loss from operations of $369.8 million for the full year 2019.

Vamos que en 2019 perdieron 369,8 millones y en 2020  492,9 millones.
¿Cuándo fue la pandemia?

Lo que vemos es que Twilio nunca fue un negocio y sólo funciono porque había dinero infinito para cubrir pérdidas. Se acaba el dinero infinito y todo el mundo a despedir...y finalmente a cerrar, salvo que ocurra un milagro y volvamos al dinero infinito. Aguantarán la respiración hasta entonces.

Existe una diferencia bastante grande entre decir públicamente que hasta el momento no se ha encontrado la forma de rentabilizar la empresa a pesar del crecimiento y que te has fundido todo el dinero de los inversores y que no ves la forma en cómo cambiar eso a decir que, ciertamente has metido la pata en la dimensión de la plantilla y las expectativas de demanda porque has interpretado mal los efectos de la pandemia, pero que con unos recortes de plantilla esto chuta en unos meses.

[Derby]

https://www.elindependiente.com/economia/2023/02/14/la-inflacion-y-el-acceso-a-las-hipotecas-amenazan-con-pinchar-la-burbuja-de-la-vivienda-de-segunda-mano/

La inflación y el acceso a las hipotecas amenazan con pinchar la burbuja de la vivienda de segunda mano

El mercado de la vivienda de segunda mano roza su techo. La inflación, la dificultad para acceder a las hipotecas, el incremento de intereses de las mismas y el frenazo de los compradores después de la euforia posterior al Covid hacen pensar que la escalada de precios en la vivienda de segunda mano está en su etapa definitiva. Tanto Idealista como Fotocasa, dos de los portales inmobiliarios de mayor relevancia en España, destacan en sus últimos informes este cambio de tendencia. Algo que reafirma en conversación con El Independiente Sergio Nasarre, catedrático de Derecho Civil en la Universidad Rovira i Virgili​ (URV) y director de su Cátedra UNESCO de Vivienda. «Las hipotecas son caras, los números no salen y la situación del empleo en muchos casos no es tan estable como se pinta desde las instituciones. Cuando los precios llegan a este punto, los compradores se retraen», explica el experto.

Según un informe de Idealista, el precio de la vivienda usada en España subió en enero solo un 0,1%. Hasta 33 provincias tienen precios superiores a los registrados en el mes anterior; sin embargo, los precios en Madrid y Barcelona, las dos urbes que marcan el ritmo en España, cayeron un 0,2% y un 0,3% respectivamente. De hecho, en Madrid capital se ha reducido el precio en 12 distritos en el último mes y en tres (Arganzuela, Centro y Chamartín) se ha marcado máximo histórico. En el ámbito provincial Soria (-1,7%) lidera la lista de caídas durante el último mes, seguida de Baleares (-1,6%), Ourense (-0,8%), Navarra (-0,5%), Cantabria, Granada y Albacete (-0,4% en las tres provincias).

El análisis de Fotocasa sobre el precio de vivienda en venta de enero incide en que el coste medio de la vivienda mensual de segunda mano en el país ha crecido un 0,5%, mientras que en el valor interanual un 9%, lo que representa el ascenso «más alto de los nueve años en España» y deja entrever que el fin del crecimiento se aproxima. «El precio de la vivienda vuelve a alcanzar cifras récord con la mayor aceleración de los últimos 17 años. Nunca habíamos detectado un incremento del precio tan abultado en un periodo tan corto de tiempo. Esta subida nos devuelve a niveles de 2006, previos a la burbuja inmobiliaria cuando el coste de la vivienda sufrió un gran calentamiento (..) Desde Fotocasa consideramos que estos aumentos son puntuales y temporales, que es cuestión de meses que el precio comience a moderarse y volver a la senda estable», apunta María Matos, directora de Estudios y Portavoz de Fotocasa.

Obstáculos para acceder a una hipoteca

La incertidumbre creada en los mercados como consecuencia de la coyuntura internacional provocada por la invasión rusa en Ucrania y la crisis del coronavirus determina la situación acutal. Nasarre asevera que «después del Covid, donde mucha gente pudo ahorrar, hubo una tendencia de buscar una nueva casa o de gente joven que tuvo la capacidad para emanciparse. Ahora ha llegado un momento en el que tenemos una inflación muy considerable y en crecimiento desde noviembre de 2021, esto y la situación internacional ha tirado a la baja la decisión de comprar una vivienda de segunda mano».

La perspectiva de Fotocasa revela que en los últimos seis meses se han producido incrementos muy significativos que coincidien con el cambio de política monetaria de la subida de tipos de interés por parte del BCE. «La demanda de compra ha resurgido y la sociedad vive un momento de ‘comprar ahora o nunca’ antes de que se endurezcan todavía más las hipotecas», indica Matos, que subraya la temporalidad del ‘ahora o nunca’. Las consecuencias directas reperctuen en el Euríbor, que ha tocado ya el 3,446% -un nuevo máximo desde 2008- y que provocarán que las hipotecas se encarecerán casi 2.000 euros al año tras las nuevas subidas anunciadas por Christie Lagarde, presidenta del BCE.

«Algunas hipotecas son de intereses al inicio, los deudores pagan al principio casi más intereses que capital amortizado y la gente se tira para atrás. Además, hay un problema de alternativas, ya que hay una dicotomía de compra alquiler de la que no se sale», considera Nasarre, que aunque entiende que el precio de la vivienda de segunda mano se encuentre muy próximo a su techo, descarta que las consecuencias sean como las sufridas con la famosa burbuja inmobiliaria de la primera década del siglo. «En el momento de euforia y ahorro la gente se ha lanzado a comprar para tener una segunda residencia, cambiar de vivienda o emanciparse. Esto se ha dado en un nivel relativamente alto, pero dudo que ocurra a niveles de la burbuja porque no se han concedido préstamos hipotecarios con la facilidad del pasado. Los bancos quieren la seguridad de que van a recuperar su dinero. Los que menos tienen se han tenido que conformar con el alquiler, sin embargo, los que han accedido a una vivienda lo han hecho de un modo sostenible», concluye.

[Derby]

https://www.elindependiente.com/economia/2023/02/14/bruselas-pide-consensuar-ya-las-nuevas-reglas-fiscales-se-acerca-la-hora-de-la-verdad/

Bruselas pide consensuar ya las nuevas reglas fiscales: "Se acerca la hora de la verdad"

La Comisión tiene la esperanza de poder terminar con este debate en marzo

El vicepresidente Económico, Valdis Dombrovskis, ha emplazado este martes a los ministros de Economía y Finanzas de la Unión Europea (UE) a consensuar el alcance de la reforma de las reglas fiscales porque, según ha advertido, «se acerca la hora de la verdad» y ha instado a seguir colaborando con los Estados miembro con la esperanza de poder finalizar los debates en la próxima reunión de marzo.

Hasta ahora, ha destacado el letón, las discusiones han sido «constructivas», lo que le da «esperanzas» de cara a ser capaces de encontrar un compromiso y seguir adelante para que la Comisión pueda regresar con una propuesta legislativa a finales de marzo o en la primera mitad de abril.

Así lo ha señalado a su llegada a la reunión del Ecofin este martes en Bruselas, centrada en acercar posturas para lograr cierto consenso político en lo que respecta a la revisión de las normas fiscales en el marco de la UE.

En la misma línea, el comisario de Economía, Paolo Gentiloni, ha hecho un llamamiento para avanzar en esta revisión, aunque sí ve acercamiento de posiciones para garantizar una senda más gradual de reducción de la deuda combinada con inversiones y reformas que fomenten el crecimiento y que favorezcan la sostenibilidad de la deuda en el futuro.

En este sentido, considera que todas las partes tienen «clara» la necesidad de contar con un enfoque a medio plazo para la sostenibilidad de la deuda y ha apostado por lograr un «equilibrio» entre el marco común de la UE y los planes nacionales.

El comisario ha destacado que la presidencia sueca del Consejo se ha comprometido «firmemente» a dar al Parlamento Europeo el tiempo necesario para debatir la propuesta legislativa que Bruselas presentará tras el próximo debate a Veintisiete de marzo porque no hay un tiempo «ilimitado».

«Aún no hay consenso, pero es necesario», ha urgido, antes de aclarar que, a su juicio, no existe una división entre dos bloques de países enfrentados entre «estrictos» y «flexibles», sino que se trata de un debate en el que cada Estado miembro tiene su propia opinión.

Así lo ha reconocido también la ministra de Finanzas sueca, Elisabeth Svantesson, consciente de que los ministros tienen «puntos de partida diferentes», pero espera poder encontrar un «terreno común» dada la necesidad de unas normas comunes sobre política económica y fiscal para promover el crecimiento sostenible y las finanzas públicas.

En su intervención, el ministro de Finanzas alemán, Christian Lindner, ha subrayado que las necesidades de inversión «no son excusa» para evitar las reformas estructurales en las economías emergentes. «Estamos abiertos a una mayor flexibilidad a medio plazo para reducir la deuda y el déficit», ha reconocido.

Mientras, su homólogo francés, Bruno Le Maire, ha insistido en que espera alcanzar un consenso sobre las nuevas reglas en marzo que permitan alcanzar el equilibrio y regresar a unas finanzas públicas «sólidas».

[Derby]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64639662

US inflation stays high as housing costs bite

Inflation in the US has cooled for a seventh month in a row, but prices continue to rise far more quickly than is considered healthy.

Inflation, the rate at which prices rise, was 6.4% in the 12 months to January, driven higher by jumps in housing, food and energy costs.

That was down just slightly from 6.5% in December.

Officials have warned that it will take time to stabilise prices, despite recent signs of improvement.

Among food prices, the cost of beef has fallen from a year ago. But egg prices are up 70% compared with January 2021, while butter and margarine costs have jumped by nearly a third.

Prices for televisions, smartphones and used cars and trucks have also fallen compared with a year ago. However, housing costs have climbed more than 7% and prices of services such as haircuts continue to rise rapidly.

The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, has responded to the problem by aggressively raising interest rates, a move intended to cool the economy and ease the pressures pushing up prices.

But the jobs market has remained more robust than expected, fuelling intense debate among economists about how high borrowing costs will have to go to return inflation to the 2% rate considered healthy - and whether the economy can handle the increase without tipping into a painful recession.



The latest news on inflation is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on a path of higher interest rates, analysts said.

"Disinflation is continuing, but at slower pace than the Fed might like," said Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard. "To pause the tightening cycle, the Fed will need to see more muted price gains and less tightness in the labour market. The wait for both is ongoing."

Prices in the US took off in 2021 as the economy roared back to life after pandemic lockdowns. Companies that were facing shortages and rising costs increased their prices.

The war in Ukraine, which hit food and energy supplies, made the problem worse, sending inflation to 9.1% in June - the highest rate since 1981.

Those forces have since cooled. But many companies have continued to raise prices, citing higher costs.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/stocks-poised-to-extend-gains-in-asia-ahead-of-cpi-markets-wrap

Stocks Rise, Treasury Yields Jump in CPI Aftermath: Markets Wrap

January CPI climbed 0.5% in January from the prior month
Swap contracts show near-even odds for Fed rate hike in June

The S&P 500 Index rose 0.3% and two-year Treasury yields jumped after year-over-year US inflation data came in higher than expected, opening the door to further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Swaps contracts showed investors now give near-even odds for a quarter-point rate increase by the Fed in June, following similar hikes in March and May. The rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield rose past 4.59%.

[Derby]

Pensar lo impensable es lo que tratamos de hacer aquí también  Georgieva dice varias cosas que comentamos aquí a diario: será necesaria más agilidad y más resiliencia (que está ligada a la contención y a la racionalidad...y no al desparrame emocional  Siempre me ha costado, pero cada día tolero peor a la gente que chilla. Lo mejor es dar media vuelta y marcharse.).

‘Think of the unthinkable’: IMF chief warns world is a very different place after crises like Covid

*The Managing Director of the IMF warned we need to “think of the unthinkable,” as we live in “a more shock-prone world” impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the recent earthquakes affecting Turkey and Syria.

*“What we are very concerned [about] is the unexpected,” Georgieva said.

*The global economy will grow 2.9% this year, according to forecasts by the financial organization.

The Managing Director of the IMF warned that we need to “think of the unthinkable,” as we live in “a more shock-prone world” impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the recent earthquake across Syria and Turkey.

“We all have to change our mindset to be much more agile and much more oriented towards building resilience at all levels, so we can handle the shocks better,” Kristalina Georgieva said Tuesday, during a World Government Summit panel hosted by CNBC’s Hadley Gamble.

“What we are very concerned [about] is the unexpected,” Georgieva said.

The IMF chief signaled the need for resilience in our planet, in societies that must allow equal opportunities, and in people, who must benefit from education, health and good social protection.

“We are not where we should be in being good stewards of our planet for our children,” Georgieva added.

In a previous interview with CNBC, Georgieva said that more private investments were needed to help developing countries meet their climate change goals, which cannot be sufficiently covered by public aid and local government funding.

Ukrainians are “fighting for the right of every nation to exist”

On the topic of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Georgieva said the world lost “a very precious peace dividend,” prompting nations to spend more on defence and less on domestic concerns, such as healthcare and infrastructure.

“We cannot take peace for granted anymore,” she said.

Georgieva praised the international response to the war as “quite remarkable” and stressed the global implications of the conflict:

“Everyone got some sense of sympathy for a problem that today is Ukraine’s problem, but tomorrow can be a problem for many other countries – that you can be invaded by your stronger neighbor,” Georgieva said.

“In Ukraine, people strongly believe they are fighting not just for themselves, they are fighting for the right of every nation to exist and run its own affairs,” she added.

Georgieva said that the IMF has to play a “stabilizing role” in the war in Ukraine, and that the country needs between $40 billion and $48 billion to function this year.

The IMF chief previously described the invasion of Ukraine as the “single most important negative factor” for the economy in 2022.

The global economy is set to grow 2.9% this year, according to forecasts by the financial agency.

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1625497547744886788

@charliebilello Shelter CPI moved up to 7.9%, the highest rate of housing inflation since 1982.

Why is Shelter CPI still moving higher while actual rents are moving lower?

Shelter CPI is a lagging indicator that had significantly understated actual housing inflation over the last 2 years.

[Derby]

https://www.axios.com/2023/02/15/cpi-inflation-outlook

A bump in the disinflationary road

January's Consumer Price Index doesn't suggest inflation is reheating in a major way. But it does preview the path to getting prices under control.

And that path might be longer and more uneven than it was in the final months of 2022.

Why it matters: In the last few months, markets have been more confident — complacent, even — now that price pressures are on a steady glide path downward.

The new numbers are nothing worth panicking about and were broadly as expected by forecasters. But they are a reminder that there are two-sided risks to inflation, with no guarantees that disinflation will be as consistent and painless as it has been in recent months.

"No one said disinflation would be a smooth ride. January's CPI was a bump in the road," Robert Frick, an economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a note.

By the numbers: Consumer prices rose 0.5% in January, or 0.4% if food and energy are excluded.

Inflation slowed on a year-over-year basis — but only barely, especially if you carry the numbers out to an extra decimal point (6.41%, down from 6.45%).

Over the last three months, core CPI rose at a 4.6% annual rate — higher than the 4.3% comparable measure in December. That is still well below the recent peak seen last spring but moving in the wrong direction.

Apparel costs and auto insurance prices ticked up, offsetting the continued drop in prices for used vehicles and airfares.

The details: The story about core inflation boils down to shelter costs. That index accounted for nearly 60% of the total increase in the core CPI index over the last 12 months, the Labor Department said.
The caveat: Private sector data suggests those prices are receding, but that hasn't fed through to the official government data (and it's unclear when it will).

The intrigue: The hotter inflation does line up with the other economic data in hand for January, including a stronger-than-expected jobs report and (early) private sector reads on consumer spending. Both, in theory, would suggest firmer prices.

But that hasn't been the case in recent months, when inflation was the exception — falling alongside economic data that would suggest otherwise.

"For the prior three months, inflation was the nail that stuck out of the smooth facade. In January, it got hammered in a little," Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Dreyfus and Mellon, tells Axios.

What to watch: This year, the inflation story is zeroed in on the services sector, which may offer more surprising stickiness.

"Supply chains can't recover twice," Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed, said at an event at Prairie View A&M University on Tuesday morning.

"It seems more likely that core goods inflation will move up to the pre-pandemic trend of zero or a bit below, which means we'll need lower services inflation to sustain 2% inflation overall."

https://mishtalk.com/economics/cpi-accelerates-0-5-percent-in-january-up-6-4-percent-from-a-year-ago

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/d9a7aa45-5e5e-4e9e-b878-3d1a3c1aa8ad

Rishi Sunak to meet EU leaders to try to finalise Brexit deal

UK and Brussels said to be edging towards compromise to overhaul Northern Ireland’s trading arrangements

Rishi Sunak is due to meet EU leaders in Bavaria this week in a final push for a Brexit deal on Northern Ireland, amid warnings of a revolt by Conservative MPs if they judge the UK prime minister is ceding too much ground to Brussels.

Sunak is expected to hold talks with EU leaders on the margins of the Munich security conference to try to resolve the long-running dispute over Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trading arrangements.

French president Emmanuel Macron, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen are scheduled to attend the summit, where the main focus will be the war in Ukraine.

Downing Street said “intensive scoping” of a Brexit deal was continuing, but the involvement of senior British ministers, including Sunak, was seen by some in London as a sign an agreement could be reached this month.

The putative accord would overhaul the so-called Northern Ireland protocol, part of Boris Johnson’s 2019 Brexit deal, by reducing trade friction between the region and Great Britain.

Under the deal, Northern Ireland remained part of the EU single market for goods, and the region’s pro-UK politicians and businesses have complained about the number of checks on products coming from Great Britain.

Senior British officials said a deal would include a continuing role for the European Court of Justice in overseeing Northern Ireland’s trading arrangements, although it would not be involved in the majority of legal cases.

For many of Sunak’s Eurosceptic MPs, ECJ jurisdiction over British territory is unacceptable. “The question is whether EU law binds the UK,” said David Jones, deputy chair of the European Research Group of pro-Brexit Conservative MPs.

Jones said a report in the Daily Telegraph that stated the ECJ would only be used as a court of last resort sounded like a “weather balloon” being floated by Downing Street to gauge Eurosceptic reaction.

“The problem with weather balloons these days is that they tend to be shot down,” he added. “We can’t have a state of affairs where we are subject to the ECJ, whether directly or indirectly.”

Asked whether the ERG had sufficient MPs to stop any Brexit deal that did not restore “full sovereignty” to all parts of the UK, Jones said: “We have enough.”

Sunak will have to take a decision on whether to confront elements of his own party to secure a deal, which would, in turn, significantly improve relations with the EU.

An early “win” from an accord would be an expected agreement by the EU to readmit British scientists and universities to the €95bn Horizon Europe research programme, seen as a vital element of pan-European collaboration.

Meanwhile Sunak would be expected to drop the government’s Northern Ireland protocol bill, which would unilaterally scrap the key parts of Johnson’s Brexit deal affecting the region.

Some in the British government believe “sovereignty purists” in the Conservative party are taking a tougher line on any overhaul of the protocol than Northern Ireland’s pro-UK Democratic Unionist party.

The DUP, which is boycotting the region’s devolved government in protest at the protocol, set “seven tests” for assessing any deal, but did not explicitly mention the ECJ. One British official said: “There’s a risk the ERG out-DUP the DUP.”

A key part of the deal would be the creation of a “green lane” at ports in the region, where goods coming from Great Britain and intended for sale in Northern Ireland would be subject to minimal checks.

Goods from Great Britain and destined for sale in the Republic of Ireland and the rest of the EU would go through the “red lane” and be subject to closer inspections.

An EU official said the two sides were “very close” to reaching an agreement on the proposed green lane. However, final details to be hammered out include the question of labelling goods for sale in Northern Ireland only, which is firmly opposed by some supermarkets and unionist politicians.

“This is in the hands of Sunak,” said the EU official.

Another EU official said London and Brussels were drawing up an explanatory document that would play down the role of the ECJ in Northern Ireland’s affairs.

The official said the ECJ would only interpret matters on single market law, and about 90 per cent of complaints over non-compliance with the rules in the bloc never reach Luxembourg.

The DUP said: “The checks on the Irish Sea border are the symptom of the underlying problem, namely, that Northern Ireland is subject to a different set of laws imposed upon us by a foreign entity without any say or vote by any elected representative of the people of Northern Ireland.”

The DUP has said it will not return to Stormont, which it has been boycotting since elections last May, until there is a deal that meets its demands.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-14/brookfield-defaults-on-two-los-angeles-office-towers

Brookfield Defaults on Two Los Angeles Office Towers

Brookfield Corp., parent of the largest office landlord in downtown Los Angeles, is defaulting on loans tied to two buildings rather than refinancing the debt as demand for space weakens in the center of the second-largest US city.

The two properties in default, part of a portfolio called Brookfield DTLA Fund Office Trust Investor, are the Gas Company Tower, with $465 million in loans, and the 777 Tower, with about $290 million in debt, according to a filing. The fund manager had warned in November that it may face foreclosure on properties.(...)

[sudden and sharp]

¿Nadie va a decir nada de los globos?








 

[sudden and sharp]

¿Nada?








 

[patxarana]

Quisiera compartir un artículo (de 1999) sobre el tema del precio del suelo que hemos estado debatiendo estos días, para tener otro punto de vista:

http://www.econ.upf.edu/~montalvo/vivienda/suelofin.pdf

Aparte de las conclusiones a las que llega, que van más o menos en la línea de lo que hemos estado comentando por aquí, resulta muy interesante verlo en perspectiva, con todo lo que ha ocurrido desde entonces y ahora sabemos. Aunque lo cierto es que no iba tan desencaminado...

Enviado desde mi Aquaris X mediante Tapatalk

[Vipamo]

¿Nadie va a decir nada de los globos?




Nena ya dijo hace 40 años todo lo que había que decir al respecto.


https://youtu.be/Fpu5a0Bl8eY


 

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/opinion/2023/02/14/63ebfeef468aeb5f018b456d.html

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/02/15/63ebe1a9e5fdea20268b4646.html

Saludos.