Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Invierno 2022

[puede ser]

La reforma eleva hasta un 20% el valor de una casa de segunda mano

Saludos.

La broma infinita:
Si no lo vendo lo alquilo
si no lo vendo, ni lo alquilo, lo reformo y lo vendo, o lo alquilo
si no lo vendo, ni lo alquilo, y lo reformo, vendo la nuda propiedad
...

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/02/17/63efde11e5fdea8c6b8b4668.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12152856/02/23/Turismo-en-2022-demasiado-bueno-para-ser-verdad.html

Saludos.

[Saturio]

En otro orden de cosas...
...o en el mismo.

Estoy mirando eso que se ha dado en llamar Fin-Tech.

Me da la impresión de todo consiste en intentar venderles a los millenials y zetas un producto que les da cosita contratar como siempre se ha hecho y ellos lo hacen por el móvil y tal que ya se sabe que todo lo que va por el teléfono es bueno.
Eso por el lado de lo que se dice que se vende y a lo que se dice que se dedica la empresa.

Por el lado de lo que hace la empresa...y en lo que realmente consiste el negocio.

DAVE.  Un falso banco para los nativos digitales. Capto unos 500 millones de financiación, se decía, justo antes de su salida a bolsa que su valoración era de 4.000 millones. Una vez realizada la IPO y dado el pase de la muerte, este es el resultado:

DAVE Inc
 8.71 USD
-306.81 (-97.24%)all time

Lo que supone que su capitalización bursátil es de unos 100 millones.

CHIME. Más de lo mismo. Puedes abrirte una especie de cuenta corriente en la que depositar dinero y retirarlo y te dan una Visa. No son un banco así que las cuentas corrientes están realmente en otros bancos. Ellos solo ingresan una parte de la comisión VISA cuando pagas en una tienda.
Evidentemente eso es una ruina. Supongo que su esperanza era que todos los Z se hiciesen una visa con ellos y comprasen mucho.
Estos tenían preparada la IPO para marzo y pensaban salir por 35.000 millones (estos, sólo en la última ronda captaron 750 millones). Evidentemente en lo operativo no saben lo que es ganar dinero y ya han salido dos veces en las listas de las tecnológicas haciendo layoffs. El pase está muy, muy difícil. Aquí se van a quedar pillados.

CHIME
8.71 USD
-306.81 (-97.24%)all time

ROBINHOOD. En sus cuentas de 2022 pone que perdieron 1000 millones, en 2021 furon 3.600 millones de pérdidas, pero oye el año de la pandemia...¡garnaron 14 millones! CA-TOR-CE.
Tienen la IPO difícil también, así que otro pase de la muerte frustrado.

PAGAYA  (a pesar del nombre son una fintech de Nueva York)
1.23 USD
-8.54 (-87.41%)all time



Salió a bolsa por 8.500 millones cuando antes de la IPO había captado 350 millones. Lo cierto es que su capitalización es todavía de 837 millones. Bueno, el pase en este caso ha sido todo un éxito.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12152863/02/23/La-complejidad-de-la-inflacion-persistira-en-el-futuro.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/opinion/2023/02/17/63efb2da468aebee668b45ac.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-18/-fake-ebitda-projections-aren-t-aging-well-in-the-post-easy-money-era

‘Fake Ebitda’ Masks Risk in Debt-Laden Companies

S&P says earnings forecasts in M&A deals are far too rosy
Also, the big rally in Chinese developer bonds is losing steam

During the days of easy money, one of the most widely tracked numbers in credit markets became an unfortunate punchline.

Ebitda, which stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — a figure that’s akin to a company’s cash flow and, thus, its ability to pay its debts — was instead mocked as a marketing gimmick. When bankers and private equity firms asked investors to buy a piece of their loans funding buyouts and other transactions, they would layer on so-called add-backs to earnings projections that, to some, defied reason.

“Ebitda: Eventually busted, interesting theory, deeply aspirational,” one Moody’s analyst joked in 2017. Sixth Street Partners co-founder Alan Waxman had a more blunt assessment, warning an audience at a private conference that such “fake Ebitda” threatened to exacerbate the next economic slump.

Now, amid rising interest rates, persistent inflation and warnings of a potential recession on the horizon, research from S&P Global Ratings is underscoring just how far from reality the earnings projections are proving to be.

As Bloomberg’s Diana Li wrote on Friday, 97% of speculative-grade companies that announced acquisitions in 2019 fell short of forecasts in their first year of earnings, according to S&P. For 2018 deals, it was 96% and 93% for 2017 acquisitions. Even after the economy was flooded with fiscal and monetary stimulus after the pandemic, about 77% of buyouts and acquisitions from 2019 were still short of their projected earnings, S&P’s research shows.

The bigger worry is that years of rosy earnings projections is masking the amount of leverage on the balance sheets of the lowest-rated companies. By 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic sent markets tumbling the following year, add-backs were accounting for about 28% of total adjusted Ebitda figures used to market acquisition loans, Covenant Review data at the time showed. That was up from 17% in 2017.

The S&P analysts this week said the latest data reinforces their view that those Ebitda figures are “not a realistic indication of future Ebitda and that companies consistently overestimate debt repayment.”

“Together, these effects meaningfully underestimate actual future leverage and credit risk,” they wrote.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-17/podcast-the-collapse-of-the-uk-housing-market-may-be-coming

The Collapse of the UK Housing Market May Be Coming

A perfect storm is brewing that could send British home prices down 40%.

The UK housing market is not in a good place. Mortgage rates are up, buyers are disappearing and so are sellers. The former don’t want to dump money in a falling market, and they can’t afford mortgages at current prices anyway. The latter don’t want to accept that prices are falling in the first place.

The result? A standoff. And that means the number of transactions are dropping. And while prices aren’t sinking very fast right now, what happens when sellers can’t hold out any longer? If the past is any guide, prices will fall very fast indeed—just like they did in the early 1990s.

How far and how fast? In this week’s episode of the podcast Merryn Talks Money, Senior Editor Neil Callanan and Senior Reporter John Stepek join Merryn Somerset Webb to discuss the scope of the potential implosion. There are an awful lot of vested interests out there insisting that prices won’t fall more than 10%, but without government intervention, they warn prices may drop as much as 40%.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7v7OHr1nyikXA9Zw1rVuGy

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.elmundo.es/economia/2023/02/18/63f0fbf1fc6c83d7368b45c9.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2023-02-18/los-pisos-fantasma-son-un-foco-de-problemas-para-los-vecinos-si-vive-junto-a-uno-busque-al-heredero.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.abc.es/espana/cataluna/bloqueo-tribunales-puedo-celebrar-ningun-juicio-20230219175732-nt.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.abc.es/economia/gobierno-sigue-plan-imserso-estremece-turismo-20230218183511-nt.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/internacional/2023-02-19/el-viaje-a-ninguna-parte-de-los-migrantes-latinoamericanos-en-nueva-york.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202302/1285709.shtml

Chinese regulators weigh to divide commercial banks into three layers to align with different supervision schemes

Chinese regulators issued an exposure draft on Saturday to solicit public opinions on the management measures of commercial banks' capital, as they consider dividing commercial banks into three layers to match with different supervision schemes.

The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) and the People's Bank of China revised previous regulations and put forward a draft to further improve the capital regulation rules for commercial banks, encourage banks to enhance risk management and improve the quality and efficiency of banks in serving the real economy.

Among the major revisions, the regulators are considering differentiated capital supervision systems, so that the supervision can match the size of banks' assets and the complexity of their businesses and reduce the compliance costs of small- and medium-sized banks, according to a note published on CBIRC’s website.

Under the plan, commercial banks will be divided into three layers according to their business scales and risk differences, and to match with different capital supervision schemes.

Large scale banks or those with more cross-border businesses will be classified into the first tier and their capital will be supervised by international standard rules. Banks with relatively small assets and cross-border operations will be placed in a second tier and be supervised by relatively simplified rules, read the note.

The third tier, mainly commercial banks with a size of less than 10 billion yuan ($1.46 billion), will be subject to further simplified capital supervision rules and will be guided to focus on serving counties and small- and micro-businesses.

Differentiated capital regulations will not lower capital requirements. On the premise of maintaining the overall soundness of the banking industry, it is expected to stimulate the financial vitality of small- and medium-sized banks and reduce the compliance costs of them, officials from the regulators told media in a statement.

The draft also comprehensively revised the rules for measuring risk-weighted assets, asking banks to develop effective policies, procedures, and measures to timely and fully monitor risk changes of their clients, and to improve information disclosure standards.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-refines-capital-risk-management-commercial-banks-2023-02-19/

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/clima-y-medio-ambiente/2023-02-18/cobrar-800-euros-al-ano-por-ir-en-bici-al-trabajo-en-paises-bajos-y-francia-ya-se-hace-en-espana-todavia-es-una-idea.html

Saludos.