Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Invierno 2022

[Benzino Napaloni]

La industria del talento, como la llaman, ya no es capaz de generar sueldos para que los trabajadores que no vienen con el pan debajo del brazo o no tengan otras fuentes de ingresos, puedan tener una vida "normal" de clase media, con el acceso a la vivienda como principal.

Debe ser tan evidente que ya los financiadores están retirando los fondos porque ya se han dado cuenta que el sur global ese que llaman ahora, va a hacer los mismos productos a mitad de precio.

No es eso. Trabajo de tecnológicas y demanda hay a paladas. Y dinero para salarios también. Eso sí, hablamos de lo "no molón". No de "exprimezumos" que se querían vender a 700 dólares hasta que alguien se dio cuenta (¡sorpresa!) de que los cartuchos que vendían se podían exprimir a mano.

Lo que ha pinchado, además de la obvia burbuja de crédito, ha sido la sobredimensión de las plantillas. Que hubiese una legión pasando las horas muertas viendo Netflix, o jugando al Fortnite o al Among Us, no implicaba que se le fuese a colar al personal cualquier app chorra.

Las tecnológicas, eso sí, tienen muchas posibilidades de supervivencia con el teletrabajo y desligándose del banano. Se le dice al rentista que sólo hacen falta unas oficinas básicas, y que o lo toma o lo deja.

[PastorMesetario]

Buenas tardes. Sólo pasada por aquí para hacer constar que seguro, pero seguro, seguro, segurísimo, que todo "is contained".   

[Manu Oquendo]

Esta patólógica y disfuncional necesidad de generar escasez e inflacción de costes --vía fiscalidad y regulaciones arbitrarias--  es sin la menor duda una Falla Estructural de primer orden que no hemos analizado seriamente en la profundidad necesaria.

Caminamos hacia una confrontación global en suelo Europeo.

Tal como están las cosas las élites de los EEUU saben que hoy será mejor que mañana. Ergo, the sooner the better. Y podrán hacerlo si en Europa seguimos callando ante las falsedades y las sandeces de los cipayos borrellianos.

De esa confrontación vendrán las dos cosas que necesitan:
1. La mayor reconstrucción de Real Estate de este lado de la Vía Láctea.
2. La consolidación definitiva del poder total y el jubileo de la deuda.
A grandes males, grandes remedios.



Mientras no entremos en la destrucción total,  no creo que, ceteris paribus,  haya una dramática ruptura generalizada de los mercados financieros o de la vivienda.
Por supuesto que habrá descensos de precios  en casos concretos pero nada que asuste a inversores veteranos--otra cosa son los especuladores que, en mi opinión, destrozan el sistema sin proporcionar información seria relevante--.  Y todavía no hemos analizado a fondo el brutal aumento de todos los costes de Materiales. Un aumento inducido por decisiones de la UE y de los gobiernos. (Ver Nota al pie con la última)

Un inversor normal –no hablo de los “fondos mega inversores globales” que también son un serio problema y otro instrumento del poder de los EEUU-- opera mentalmente con los esquemas de toda la vida. Es decir, invierte no para especular sino para usar el bien adquirido o para obtener una modesta rentabilidad. Esta rentabilidad históricamente ha estado en línea con los tipos de interés.

No ha sido esta mayoría de inversores la que sigue tolerando la especulación ni quien alteró hace ya un par de décadas, los criterios de contabilización de los activos fijos pasando de "coste histórico" a "mercado". Es decir, de un hecho cierto, a una estimación interesada y una  trampa impositiva del sistema. Los criterios y normas contables del FASB  fueron prostituidos en aras de unas necesidades recaudatorias siempre ilimitadas porque lo más inflacionario del mundo es el coste del voto y la pasión por mandar y reducir libertades.


Por otra parte el mundo hace años que dejó de considerar como epistemológicamente válida la tradicional distinción entre sistemas capitalistas y sistemas comunistas. Puesto en evidencia muy especialmente por la caracterización de la UE como “capitalista” no siéndolo en la práctica.

Por Dios, ¿con un BCE que está construyendo a destajo un oligopolio bancario extractivo y explotador que solo puede conducir a la miseria soviética? ¿Con un lobby como el discretísimo de la “European Round table” que dicta legislación a la UE? ¿Con una clase dirigente que desfila cada año en Davos y otros foros más discretos para entrar como buenos petits maîtres en las listas electorales homologadas? ¿Con un Hegemón que abochorna a todos los Cipayos de la UE comenzando por la Sra. Von der Leyen?

Tal forma de análisis responde a uno de los viejos sofismas marxistas: la propiedad,  que es hoy día totalmente accesoria en relación con lo que de verdad es importante: el ejercicio del poder real sobre todas las formas de "capital" privado.
El poder económico, que ciertamente existe junto a otros igual de importantes, es hoy un poder sin autonomía hasta el punto de que cuestiones que son de su plena competencia son decididas por gobierno y sindicatos sin tan siquiera consultar con la representación empresarial. Tanto para la gran empresa como de los muy pequeños trabajadores y empresarios autónomos. Completamente ignorados.
No pintan nada y, como mucho, pueden votar con los pies como acaba de hacer Rafael del Pino. En mi modesta opinión, mucho tardó. Roures, por lo visto se le adelantó veinte años. Y ese sí que vive de los gobiernos.

Luego resulta que hay ministros y jefes de gobierno  que se mesan los cabellos cuando Ferrovial, finalmente, inicia la travesía hacia Holanda y América que otros ya han completado hace muchos años. Y no porque América ofrezca hoy un horizonte brillante –que tampoco-- sino porque lo que ofrece es algo mejor que el desastroso horizonte de  una Europa sometida y colonial dirigida por petits maîtres encantados de serlo a nuestra costa en todos los sentidos.


Que la academia –políticamente correcta como nunca-- siga aferrada a los viejos esquemas se explica por Thomas Kuhn tal como se cita en el post de la página 166. Es decir, la academia, by and large, "vive de ello" porque eso es lo que quiere el sistema de Poder.

Tampoco es de excesiva utilidad dividir los sistemas entre "libre" mercado y mercado "no libre". Miren el BCE y cómo mangonea nuestro más importante "mercado". En todo caso esto es una cuestión de grado y, a casi todos los efectos, la UE es ya un sistema de Dirección Centralizada con un altísimo grado de Oligopolización que niega al sistema el acceso a las ventajas de la libertad económica de Agentes no Oligopólicos.

Podemos desgañitarnos hablando de vivienda, pisito, capitalismo popular, de una ¿buscada? falsa guerra a muerte entre arrendatario y arrendador o de las razones por las cuales la UE sigue apilando inmigración a chorros para que sostenga la vivienda chunga en la base de todo el edificio.
Pero todos sabemos que llevamos, a ambos lados del Atlántico Norte, unos 50 años de empobrecimiento real muy mal disimulado a base de unos pasivos inconmensurables y esporádicos "hair cuts" a base de inflación alimentada icida por las propias autoridades a base de inflar costes, deslocalizar producción, reglamentaciones suicidas, etc.

Por qué algunos compañeros siguen tratando de sostener como ciertos, factores estructurales que ni lo son ni lo pueden ser solo se entiende si se tratara de ocultar las verdadras raíces del mal y de utilizar de modo destructivo los problemas para dividir y enfrentar segmentos sociales entre sí al modo que tan bien documentaron Laclau y Mouffe.Vamos, Colau en marcha.

Verificar esto es muy sencillo. No requiere haber estudiado nada. Basta ver los videos de la Sra Mouffe departiendo cariñosamente con el Podemismo y la gente que tripula la "Sala de Máquinas" del  PSOE desde los tiempos de Zapatero parte de la cual lanza Podemos y desde entonces tiene un pie en cada uno de esos partidos. El Sr. Laclau, lamentablemente, falleció en 2014, pero su obra, “Hegemonía y Estrategia Socialista”, de 1985 es imprescindible para entender el comportamiento de la Izquierda –la que hoy gobierna y la supuesta oposición--.

En la obra de Laclau Mouffe hay una frase imposible de olvidar. Una frase que destaca entre otras también tenebrosas. Está en la página 22 de la edición española: “El papel central que desempeña el antagonismo en nuestra concepción, elimina cualquier posibilidad de reconciliación final, de consenso racional, o de un “nosotros” totalmente inclusivo”.

Claro como el agua. El destino de todos los discrepantes es el sometimiento o la exclusión. Las reglas del juego nunca serán limpias porque el objetivo de esa izquierda es el poder abosoluto y las reglas son para cumplirlas mientras interese. Lean a la saga de los Pablos Iglesias. No engañan.

En otras palabras: lasciate ogni speranza, voi ch’entrate


La inevitable conclusión es que la Izquierda que Gobierna la UE dedica tiempo y recursos a  trabajar desde hace unos treinta años en la ruptura del paradigma de las sociedades occidentales a base de crear problemas, división y odios irreconciliables.
De ahí la confrontación y las políticas destinadas a socavar cada aspecto de la vida social incluyendo el derecho de propiedad. Es decir, la posibilidad de una cierta autonomía personal. Frente de esta gente --en el fondo colegas del Sr.  Feijóo-- no hay nada.


En nuestro foro el instrumento es la relación arrendador-arrendatario usada para elevar la conflictividad –desviándola de su verdadera causa y culpando de paso al propietario privado--. Y esto se hace, como decíamos al principio, fuera de cualquier análisis racional y apelando a los instintos más emocionales y primarios.

En fin, que hay muchas cosas de las que hablar antes de meterse a dictar sentencia.

Saludos cordiales
Coro Strensky. Una joya.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOlE0TUeK0A

PS.
1. Ya se acerca a los 100 EurosTM el Impuesto de la UE al CO2. Es decir, a 25 veces el precio de 2012. Gestionan los aumentos para impedir que las bajadas del gas abaraten las facturas. No hay nada que no esté afectado gravemente por ese impuesto que, cínicamente, llaman "Derechos".

[Benzino Napaloni]

Buenas tardes. Sólo pasada por aquí para hacer constar que seguro, pero seguro, seguro, segurísimo, que todo "is contained".   

En España, probablemente hasta pasado verano.

Recuerden navidades de 2008. Las estaciones de esquí españolas estaban a reventar. Se acercaba el periodista a preguntar... y la mayoría eran parados "que nos estamos tomando unas vacaciones y un respiro después de tanta paliza". Lo que vino después se conoce de sobra.

Lo llevamos en la sangre, somos de negar la mayor mientras en otros países ya se están tomando medidas. Hasta que ya no se puede disimular más.

[siempretarde]

Ese video es una genialidad educativa que, creo que deberiamos ver todos.

Por desgracia, se han centrado Ustedes en el titular: "Hombre muerde a perro", pero ahi estan muchas llaves, incluso, estirando un poco de cabeza, las del porque de la puerta que tenemos ahora delante de las narices. E incluso por que no encontramos las llaves correctas.

Las personas "quieren" ser "buenas", pero segun el interes que tenemos en "no ser buenos", pues como que no lo "semos", aunque lo deseemos. Cuando el beneficio es lo suficientemente alto, la moralina no sabe tan mal. "Teoria y practica del Idealismo" volumen "indefinido", y mas cuando la apuesta se llama Libertad (con mayusculas), Escucharemos excusas e intentos de aclararnos las cosas hasta que ganen por agotamiento del contrario. ( sed 's/buenos/libres' )

He visto el video varias veces, y cada vez encuentro un matiz nuevo que me da el deseo de volverlo a ver.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxGk5E42yQo

PD: Derby "Sultans of Swing" ... me tiene "calado" en mi top-5

[Como diría Don Gustavo Bueno, algunos comentaristas en este blog son comentaristas 'emic' de la política. Encima, creyendo que la Historia se escribe por un puñado de superhombres, que estarían en la cima porque, como dice el más enterao, ciezomanío y malaje de nuestros mistificadores individualistas anarcoides: «Yo no soy responsable de tu mala suerte con los genes y el entorno social que te han tocado».
Es una pena porque la visión 'etic' es más importante que la 'emic' para nuestra labor de equipo de previsión económica.
No importa. Son bienvenidos porque siempre se piensa contra algo o alguien, y este 'sparring' no tiene que ser siempre la 'hoja parroquial' de fin de semana de los diarios económicos, con su sempiterno cuán maravilloso es el ladrillo y asqueroso, el dinero.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxGk5E42yQo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmv-tX2jubI
El «yo no soy responsable de tu mala suerte con los genes y el entorno social que te han tocado», aparte de ser antisistema por anticristiano —no lo diría ni Lutero, que solo odiaba a los judíos por haber matado al Mesías—. Es una deposición imposible de remontar para un comunicador en la era de internet.
¿Acaso la mistificación a la que pertenece este siniestro exabrupto no es responsable de QUE YO SÍ TENGA QUÉ PAGAR LA SOBREVALORACIÓN DE LA VIVIENDA DE LOS EMPLEADOS DE MIS PROVEEDORES PARA QUE, SIENDO POBRES, SE CREAN RICOS, lo que encima vacía de talento a Madrid?
Madrid, indiscutible capital de inmomierdismo. «Madrid lo absorbe todo», que dicen los ganchos del timo.
Y talento, entre otras cosas, para dirigir el Estado. Un Estado que ni puede ni debe pagar los supersalarios que hacen falta para cumplir las fantasías animadas de ayer y hoy de los individualistas anarcoides creyentes en la psicomagia 'ofertademandista' (lo que llaman precios inmobiliarios no son precios en sentido técnico-económico, sino cotización del ahorro-de-pobre en un juego piramidal-generacional de dinero-sin-trabajar).
Estos mistificadores son unos impuestitos, unos impresoritas... y unos 'cámaras-de-gas'. Para ellos habría un orden natural que hace que ellos meen colonia y tú seas su escuchapedos.]

[siempretarde]

De alguna forma le estaba esperando

Buenas tardes. Sólo pasada por aquí para hacer constar que seguro, pero seguro, seguro, segurísimo, que todo "is contained".   

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/c95e7708-b903-405d-a017-963844eb3dc3

Silicon Valley Bank is a very American mess

The rules work! They just weren’t applied to SVB Financial

If you think back to the Great Financial Crisis, one of the big things you’ll remember is that for the first time in living memory, major banks were subject to liquidity runs.

Banks like Northern Rock, HBOS and Dexia had gone too far out on a limb, funding long-dated assets out of short-term liabilities, and either requiring massive central bank bailouts or flaming out themselves. You might also remember that in the aftermath of that crisis, regulators assured us all that the rules had been changed to prevent that sort of thing.

So what’s happened with Silicon Valley Bank (and Silvergate) then? You’re going to laugh.

To a certain extent, of course, borrowing short to lend long is what banks are for. So the rules that were passed as part of the Third Basel Accords (“Basel III”) were never meant to outlaw the practice entirely, just put reasonable limits on it and say “come on folks, be sensible”. There were two dimensions of being sensible that were meant to be enforced, with two corresponding ratios. (Regulators think in ratios).

First is the “Liquidity Coverage Ratio”, which is meant to measure emergency funding capacity. In simple terms, it’s the ratio of the amount of “High Quality Liquid Assets” you have available, compared to a rough-and-ready estimate of the cash outflows you might experience over 30 days if your wholesale funding dried up and some (but not all) of your retail and corporate deposits ran. The ratio is meant to be above 100 per cent; it corresponds broadly to a thirty day “survival horizon”.

The second is the “Net Stable Funding Ratio” — also meant to be above 100 per cent in a good bank — which measures structural funding liquidity. It’s basically a ratio of the two sides of your balance sheet, after each side is adjusted for liquidity risk.

Assets are assigned weightings according to how easy they are to turn into cash. That means short-term Treasury bills get 100-per-cent weightings, while longer-dated corporate bonds get 50-per-cent weightings and loans get zero. Liabilities get weightings according to the likelihood that someone will want cash back immediately. So overnight repo is weighted at 100 per cent and retail deposits are 90 per cent. “Hot money” wealth management and corporate deposits only get a 50-per-cent weighting, and long-term bonds/deposits are zero. If the ratio of the first number to the second is above 100%, then broadly speaking, your long term and illiquid assets are matched by an equivalent amount of long-term and stable liabilities.

All of this sounds pretty sensible. So why didn’t this regulation prevent SVB from . . . 



Oh.

That’s from SVB’s most recent 10-K. When the Fed implemented Basel III in October 2020, they took advantage of the fact that strictly speaking, the Basel Accords are only internationally agreed to apply to “large, internationally active” banks. While most jurisdictions apply the Basel rules to their entire banking system anyway, the US has a strong and powerful community bank lobby, and US community banks are usually quite aggressive in their use of the borrow-short/lend-long business model.

So the Fed adopted a rule under which only the very largest international banks were subject to the full Basel NSFR requirements (several of those large banks are actually holding companies for foreign institutions). It adopted a second tier, under which the ratio only had to be 85%, and a third tier where it was calibrated to 70%. And even then, the majority of US banks are not required to follow the NSFR or LCR standards at all.

Despite being the 16th largest bank in the US by balance-sheet size, SVB was apparently not subject to the “no more Dexias, no more HBOSes” regulation. The reason, as implied in the 10-K disclosure above, seems to be that a bank is only required to follow the NSFR and LCR rules if they have a certain amount of “short term wholesale funding”, and SVB’s liability side was dominated by deposits from corporate customers.

Of course, as we’re seeing now, the fact that a risk isn’t covered by a regulatory ratio doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

Although they grumbled and moaned back in the 2010s (NSFR compliance in particular was a big drag on European bank profitability), the European and UK banks basically managed to become compliant with the funding rules, which in many ways just codify sensible treasury management practices.

The fact that large domestic banks in the US are apparently allowed to run such sizable funding mismatches (and indeed, to hang around with massive unrealised losses on hold-to-maturity securities portfolios, which is perhaps a regulatory bedtime story for another day) is likely to be a source of embarrassment to the US authorities next time they visit the big Swiss tower.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Now let’s hear from Copium Bear
It’s not contagion if everything was wrong anyway

Bryze Elder 2023.03.10

© FTAV montage via Midjourney

Well, this seems helpful:

Email inbox traffic today can be grouped into two distinct themes. There’s the “contagion risk from a run on an atypical San Francisco lender appears to be minimal” theme, and then there’s the “WOO GENERALISED BAD MOJO” theme. Robin, Alex and our colleagues on prime FT have already written at length and in depth about contagion, etc, so let’s hear from someone in the “bad mojo” camp.

The research note headline above is from Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, whose thesis for a very long time has been that crisis follows tightening cycles like winter follows autumn:

US Fed Funds target rate % © BofA

Under BofA’s Flow Show brand, Hartnett’s notes have a unique gnomic quality, like he’s dictating imperatives while being pursued by a literal bear. Here, reproduced in full, is his bit about the potential spillover of credit events from tech PE and VC lending:

Government debt, shadow banking/private equity, crypto, speculative tech, real estate, CTAs, CLOs, MBS…so many potential catalysts for systemic deleveraging event that sparks policy panic/end of Fed tightening; truth is source of event irrelevant (who named UK gilts as credit event of ‘22), simply that it will happen and will cause policy makers panic (BoE restarted QE last Oct) and investors must be ready at that moment to deploy cash in new leadership assets which outperform in era of higher inflation.

An anaphora running through his latest is the sharply higher effective federal funds rate. A year ago it was 0 per cent. Two-hundred-and-ninety global rate hikes later it’s 4.5 per cent and “headed for 6”:

Market pricing for Fed Funds rate % © BofA

Add in a US yield curve that was last this inverted in the early 1980s . . . 

© BofA

…and dollar hoarding that’s at a record . . . 

US money-market funds, total assets © BofA

…and a US real estate sector that’s already flashing red:

US CMBS ETF © BofA

Bad. Mojo.

Back when the Fed funds rate was 0 per cent, Tesla’s $850bn market cap exceeded that of the whole UK and continental European banking sector, Hartnett notes. (For reference Tesla’s market cap is $542bn at pixel time and the Stoxx 600 Banks Index has a total value slightly above $1tn; chart here.)

Spin forward a year and the Nasdaq has been “bearishly aping Dow Jones in 1973-74” amid the same “investment backdrop of war, oil shocks, fiscal excess, labor strikes, Wall St-Fed co-dependency [and] stop-go policy.” Hartnett illustrates the point with a two-axis graph, neither of which starts at zero:

The Watergate era was tough for the Fed, which flip-flopped twice on tightening. The proper pivot only came in December 1974, after the US unemployment rate jumped by a full percentage point to 6.6 per cent, Hartnett says.

And similar to today’s rangebound equity markets, the Watergate era was one of co-dependency between the Fed and stocks. Hartnett illustrates the point with a two-axis graph, neither of which starts at zero:

As for the present, restless workers mean sticky inflation, he continues. That means labour will outperform capital, Main Street will beat Wall Street, etc. Also:

Russia/Ukraine/NATO war, US/China tech war, Isreal/Iran tensions all getting much worse, electorates yet to pushback…fiscal spending on war, supply chain disruptions, commoditiy bull markets…old world was 2% growth, 1% inflation, 0% rates…new world of 2020s is 2% growth, 4% inflation, 4% rates…

You get the idea.

Given the parlous state of . . . basically everything, investors are left playing payrolls poker with today’s US jobs report, Hartnett says. And absent a soft number the “crashy vibes of March” are set to worsen, he concludes.

Stay safe, everyone.

Saludos.

[muyuu]

[Saturio]

No me puedo creer que no hayáis puesto lo de Circle.

[senslev]

Qué más da, total...

The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
Current List of Companies With Silicon Valley Bank, $SIVB, Deposits:

1. Circle: $3.3 billion
2. Roku: $487 million
3. BlockFi: $227 million
4. Roblox: $150 million
5. Ginkgo Bio: $74 million
6. iRhythm: $55 million
7. Rocket Lab: $38 million
8. Sangamo Therapeutics: $34 million
9. Lending Club: $21 million
10. Payoneer: $20 million

The worst part?

These are only the companies that have disclosed their exposure SO FAR.

SVB has nearly $200 billion in deposits with 97% of those deposits above the $250,000 FDIC limit.

This can't end well.

https://www.axios.com/2023/03/11/circle-usdc-peg-svb

Circle's usd coin (USDC), the second-largest stablecoin in the world, fell below its $1 peg, as markets grappled with the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank's failure.

Why it matters: Uncertainty in the U.S. banking system is creating fears for users of the $40 billion stablecoin, because a portion of its cash reserves were held at SVB, which the U.S. government took control of on Friday.

USDC's struggles suggest more financial turmoil is in store, as markets fully digest the collapse of SVB. The stablecoin first surrendered the 1:1 watermark late Friday, according to CoinMarketCap, and struggled to retake it on Saturday.

Last year, the cryptocurrency market was convulsed by the rapid collapse of Terra, another stablecoin; while Tether's USDT (the world's largest) also briefly de-pegged in November.
Zoom Out: The stablecoin's value proposition is that it is 100% backed by U.S. dollars or short-term U.S. treasuries, such that the tokens are always redeemable 1:1 for actual dollars in a traditional bank account. As such, it generally maintains a price of almost exactly $1, even in the hectic cryptocurrency markets.

USDC first fell below $0.99 at around 11:25 PM ET on Friday night, according to CoinMarketCap. It has fallen as low as $0.88.
As of this writing, the price has been gaining, currently at $0.98.
What they're saying: In an update for users Saturday afternoon, Circle said that "While USDC can be used 24/7/365 on chain, issuance and redemption is constrained by the working hours of the U.S. banking system.

Circle added: "USDC liquidity operations will resume as normal when banks open on Monday morning in the United States."
However, users seem unwilling to wait to shed USDC's counterparty risk. Tether is currently trading at $1.01, suggesting that many USDC holders are opting for the original, global stablecoin in this moment of uncertainty in the U.S.

In the weeds: Around $32.4 billion of the assets backing USDC are held in short-term U.S. treasuries, while $9.7 billion is held at six different depository institutions. One of those is SVB, which was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) on Friday.

Circle initiated a reshuffling of its cash holdings, as uncertainty about the bank grew. "Last week, we took action to reduce bank risk and deposited $5.4 billion with BNY Mellon, one of the largest and most stable financial institutions in the world, known for the strength of their balance sheet and as a custodian," the statement explains.
The company also previously disclosed that $3.3 billion of its fund are currently stuck at SVB.
Bottomline: According to Circle, if the FDIC is not able to recover 100% of USDC's reserves held at the bank — or if it can't access them swiftly enough — it will pay for the difference out of company funds, or by raising money from investors to do so.

Última hora: El contagio de Sillicon Valley Bank se extiende a Reino Unido, Alemania, China e Israel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6Re6aiR8ys

[muyuu]

No me puedo creer que no hayáis puesto lo de Circle.

son muchísimos los afectados

risas aquí: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35114009

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/summers-sees-no-systemic-risk-from-svb-if-depositors-protected

Summers Sees No Systemic Risk From SVB If Depositors Protected

*Former Treasury chief sees ‘element of overreaction’ in stocks
*Summers says ‘going to be issues’ for regulators to look at

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the meltdown of SVB Financial Group shouldn’t pose a risk to the financial system as long as depositors are made whole.

“What is absolutely imperative is that, however this gets resolved, depositors be paid back, and paid back in full,” Summers said on Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. And as long as that’s the case, while there will be risks to banks’ asset values, “I don’t see — if this is handled reasonably, and I have every reason to think that it will be — that this will be a source of systemic risk,” he said.(...)

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/billionaire-bill-ackman-svb-collapse-government-has-48-hours-fix-irreversible-mistake

Billionaire Bill Ackman on SVB collapse: Government has 48 hours to fix 'irreversible mistake'

Ackman said the FDIC and OCC '[failed] to do their jobs'

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman wrote a lengthy analysis of the Silicon Valley Bank failure on Saturday, arguing that the U.S. government needs to protect all of the bank's depositors. (...)

"These funds will be transferred to the SIBs, US Treasury (UST) money market funds and short-term UST," Ackman postulated. "There is already pressure to transfer cash to short-term UST and UST money market accounts due to the substantially higher yields available on risk-free UST vs. bank deposits."

Ackman said that "the destruction of these important institutions" will begin once depositors start draining money from regional and community banks. He asserted that the U.S. government could have guaranteed SVB's deposits in exchange for penny warrants to avoid its collapse and create potential for profits.

"Instead, I think it is now unlikely any buyer will emerge to acquire the failed bank," he continued. "The gov’t’s approach has guaranteed that more risk will be concentrated in the SIBs at the expense of other banks, which itself creates more systemic risk."
The financial expert says that the government needs to take action by Monday to avoid an economic meltdown.

(...) "By allowing @SVB_Financial to fail without protecting all depositors, the world has woken up to what an uninsured deposit is – an unsecured illiquid claim on a failed bank," he began.

He then predicted that people will rush to withdraw huge sums of uninsured deposits from all non-systemically important banks (SIB).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-cuban-urges-fed-buy-234507362.html

Mark Cuban urges Fed to buy Silicon Valley Bank debt ‘immediately,’ says it’s ‘not the wealthy taking the hit’

Mark Cuban wants the Fed to buy Silicon Valley Bank’s debt, pronto. Not doing so, he believes, will shake confidence in the financial sector—and hurt tech startups and their employees.

Cuban tweeted on Friday night, “The Fed should IMMEDIATELY buy all the securities/debt the bank owns at near par, which should be enough to cover most deposits.”

[Derby]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2023/03/11/these-companies-roku-lendingclub-roblox-and-more-held-major-funds-in-silicon-valley-bank-when-it-crashed/

These Companies—Roku, Circle, Roblox And More—Held Major Funds In Silicon Valley Bank When It Crashed

TOPLINE
Roku—a hardware digital media company known for its streaming devices—held about 26% of its cash at Silicon Valley Bank Financial, according to a securities filing, as other companies have disclosed ties to the firm after it was closed by regulators Friday.

KEY FACTS
Roku held an estimated $487 million at SVB, representing approximately 26% of the company’s cash and cash equivalents as of Friday, according to a securities filing, wth its remaining $1.4 billion in cash is distributed across other financial institutions, the company noted.

Crypto firm Circle revealed in a tweet late Friday it held $3.3 billion with the bank, adding the remainder of its $40 billion in cash was held elsewhere.

Roblox Corporation held 5% of its $3 billion in cash ($150 million) at the bank, according to a filing, though the video game company said SVB’s collapse will “have no impact” on its day-to-day operations.

Crypto exchange platform BlockFi—which filed for bankruptcy in November—listed $227 million in uninsured holdings at the bank.

Rocket Lab USA, an aerospace manufacturing company, said in a filing it held 7.9% ($38 million) of its total cash at SVB.

Juniper Networks, a networking hardware company, said SVB held a “minimal” cash balance of less than 1% of the company’s total cash, which the company listed as $880 million at the end of 2022.

LendingClub, whose assets total $8 billion, said its holdings at SVB were “limited” to $21 million, an amount the company says “does not pose a risk” to its business.

Unity Software, known for its video game engine, held less than 5% of its cash and cash equivalents at SVB and expects “minimal impact” from the bank’s collapse, according to a release.

iRhythm Technologies said it held $54.5 million in holdings at SVB, in addition to an outstanding $35 million term loan.

Some pharmaceutical and biotech companies have also disclosed holdings at SVB, including Protagonist Therapeutics ($13 million), Sangamo Therapeutics ($34 million), Eiger Biopharmaceuticals ($8.3 million). Ginkgo Bioworks ($74 million) and Oncorus ($10 million), which said its holdings represented an estimated 23% of the company’s total cash.

CRUCIAL QUOTE
Despite more than one-quarter of its cash at SVB—noting the company “does not know” how much it will be able to recover—Roku said it believes its existing cash balance will be “sufficient” to continue company operations for the next year “and beyond.”

SURPRISING FACT
SVB’s collapse is the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history after reporting $212 billion in assets for the fourth quarter of 2022. The firm is second only to Washington Mutual, whose 2008 failure came as the bank had an estimated $300 billion in assets.

KEY BACKGROUND
SVB’s deposits grew from $60 billion in 2020 to nearly $200 billion two years later as the tech industry grew during the pandemic. The bank then invested in debt like U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, but as the Federal Reserve increased interest rates to combat inflation over the last year, the firm’s investments began to fall. SVB sold assets amid a surge in withdrawals, which created $1.8 billion in losses. The bank’s collapse—highlighted by a 64% plunge in share prices overnight—affected other banks and cryptocurrencies before it was closed by a California regulator.