Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Invierno 2022

[newclo]

Ahora sí, desbloqueado.

Pues ahora ya no tengo nada que decir

Bueno, sí

Gracias

[JENOFONTE10]

Biden no protegerá a los inversores: "Asumieron el riesgo a sabiendas, así funciona el capitalismo":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cc4StOK9eRw

¿Es esto el mercado, amigos?.

Saludos.

[Derby]

Una imagen vale más que 1000 palabras...

https://economics.cmail19.com/t/d-e-zhjutdl-ydwjiuuud-r/

[muyuu]

First Republic se desploma un 60% en pre-trade



Western Alliance Bancorp. un 75%




https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/first-republic-drops-bank-stocks-decline.html

First Republic drops 60%, leads decline in bank stocks despite government’s backstop of SVB

First Republic Bank
 led a decline in bank shares Monday that came even after regulators’ extraordinary actions Sunday evening to backstop all depositors in failed Silicon Valley Bank
 and Signature Bank
 and offer additional funding to other troubled institutions.

San Francisco’s First Republic shares lost 65% in premarket trading Monday after declining 33% last week. PacWest Bancorp dropped 24%, and Western Alliance Bancorp
 lost 61% in the premarket. Zions Bancorporation
 shed 21%, while KeyCorp
 fell 12%. Bank of America
 lost 4% in premarket trading, while Charles Schwab
 tumbled 8% early Monday.

-----

la banca del EuroStoxx se hunde también

[muyuu]

Una imagen vale más que 1000 palabras...

https://economics.cmail19.com/t/d-e-zhjutdl-ydwjiuuud-r/

comparado con el descalabro de WaMu en 2008, el mayor de la historia

[el malo]

Todavia no me acabo de enterar de si hay rescate, o sí pero no, o sólo depósitos de particulares, o sí a todo menos a accionistas. Según dónde lea dicen una cosa u otra.

Lo que sí he visto es el Popular que le han hecho a SVB en UK, horas después de decir que no había riesgo ninguno 

Y por supuesto, a los pepitos no les va a costar ni un duro, igual que la Sareb a los españoles 

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYpWrDLfY6g

[Derby]

Jaque al Rey?

https://www.ft.com/content/5e444ba2-0afc-49e8-bfec-5fc17ef7ee39

SVB collapse forces rethink on interest rates and hits bank stocks

Two-year US Treasury yields record biggest one-day drop since 1987

The failure of Silicon Valley Bank has torn into global markets, with investors ripping up their forecasts for further rises in interest rates and dumping bank stocks around the world.

Government bond prices soared on Monday, with two-year US Treasury yields recording their biggest one-day drop since 1987, as fund managers ramped up bets that the US Federal Reserve would now leave interest rates unchanged at its next scheduled monetary policy meeting this month to steady the global financial system. As recently as last week, markets were braced for another half-percentage point rise.

Wall Street’s S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively shortly after the New York open, giving up earlier gains in futures markets which came after US regulators said on Sunday that SVB depositors would be fully repaid and unveiled emergency funding measures in a bid to contain the fallout. In the UK, the Bank of England brokered a deal to sell the UK arm of SVB to HSBC for £1.

Meanwhile, bank stocks dropped heavily. Shares in First Republic, another San Francisco-based bank, dropped 65 per cent before trading in its shares was halted shortly after the open despite a statement on Sunday that it had more than $70bn in unused liquidity. The KBW bank index, which includes larger lenders, fell 13 per cent shortly after the open; Citigroup was down 6 per cent.

Europe’s Stoxx banking index fell 7 per cent, taking its decline since the middle of last week to just over 11 per cent, with all 22 stocks in the index in negative territory. Several lenders suffered double-digit declines on Monday alone, including Spain’s Banco Sabadell and Germany’s Commerzbank. Austria’s Bawag Group fell 8.9 per cent.

The failure of SVB and closure of Signature Bank come just months after the shortlived crisis in UK government bonds, underlining the risks buried in the financial system as central banks rapidly lift borrowing costs in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. Investors and analysts said policymakers at the Fed and elsewhere would need to tread carefully as they sought to hose down inflation.

“The SVB situation is a reminder that Fed hikes are having an effect, even if the economy has held up so far,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management in a note to clients. “Concerns over bank earnings and balance sheets also add to the negative sentiment for . . . equity markets.”

Futures markets show investors believe the US central bank will temper the path of interest rate rises from here, despite Fed chair Jay Powell’s reminder a week ago of his determination to pull down inflation, and despite data on Friday showing that the US economy added 311,000 jobs, higher than the 225,000 forecast by economists.

After weeks of debate about whether the US central bank would raise interest rates by 0.5 or 0.25 per cent, Refinitiv data now shows that traders see a 60 per cent probability that the US central bank will leave rates unchanged — in a range of 4.5-4.75 per cent — later this month.

Goldman Sachs said on Monday that it no longer expected any increase at the Fed’s meeting ending on March 22 “in light of recent stress in the banking system”.

Investors also scaled back their bets on how high the European Central Bank would raise its deposit rate later this year to 3.25 per cent, down from a peak of 4.2 per cent only last week. 

The shake-up in bond markets was substantial. Germany’s interest rate-sensitive two-year bond yield plummeted 0.48 percentage points to 2.62 per cent on Monday, as bond markets rallied sharply in response to fading expectations of further increases in borrowing costs. The rate has fallen from the 14-year high of 3.3 per cent it hit last week, showing how sharply investors have repriced their rate expectations since SVB’s collapse.

In the US, the two-year Treasury yield, which moves with interest rate expectations, fell by 0.41 percentage points to 4.18 per cent. It had previously slipped below 4 per cent to its lowest level since September. The benchmark 10-year government bond yield slipped 0.22 percentage points to 3.47 per cent.

George Saravelos, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, said the SVB rescue package from the Fed, which includes an offer to absorb government debt and mortgage-backed bonds at above-market prices, represented a new form of quantitative easing — the bond-buying programme that US policymakers fired up after the pandemic hit to stabilise the financial system.

“Both the speed and end point of the Fed hiking cycle should come down,” Saravelos said. “We’ve learnt two things over the last few days. First, that this monetary policy tightening cycle is operating with a lag, like every other. Second, that this tightening cycle will now be amplified due to stress in the US banking system.”

Michael Every, an analyst at Rabobank, said the implications of the Fed’s “bailout of Silicon Valley venture capitalists funding Instagram filters that make cats look like dogs” were potentially “enormous”.

“The Fed is de facto allowing a massive easing of financial conditions as well as soaring moral hazard,” he said in a note to clients.

Currencies that perform well in times of stress also rallied. The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc both climbed more than 1 per cent against the dollar.

The rapid collapse of SVB had made market participants “more aware again that the Fed will eventually break something if it keeps raising rates”, said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG.

The bank’s collapse had also “taken the wind out the US dollar’s sails” by highlighting risks associated with rising rates, Hardman added. A measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six international peers fell 0.6 per cent on Monday.

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2023-03-13/el-alza-de-tipos-puede-hacer-caer-el-precio-de-las-casas-y-debilitar-la-economia.html

Saludos.

El suflé inmobiliario se desinfla

La actividad inmobiliaria, incluyendo la construcción, es clave para nuestra economía y representa más del 15% del PIB y el 6% del empleo, con lo que ello supone la dinamización del mercado de trabajo. Sin embargo, hace meses que observamos el cambio de signo del mercado inmobiliario a la vista de las cifras que nos ofrecen los Registradores de la Propiedad y los Notarios sobre las compraventas.

Cómo no. Jugamos al "mismacestahuevismo", y luego a mantener el chiringuito porque no ha quedado otra cosa en pie.

Durante la pandemia había rentistas pidiendo ayudas para sobrevivir al parón "porque el turismo crea puestos de trabajo".

Aún no han salido las ratas de alcantarilla a explicar por qué es malo "para la economía" que baje el precio de la vivienda. Para el rentista y para el "promotroll inmobiliario" ya sé que sí, pero a ver cómo afecta al común de los mortales. Ah, claro, es por los pufos que se quedarían al descubierto a lo SVB.

[el malo]

Jaque al Rey?

https://www.ft.com/content/5e444ba2-0afc-49e8-bfec-5fc17ef7ee39

SVB collapse forces rethink on interest rates and hits bank stocks

Two-year US Treasury yields record biggest one-day drop since 1987

The failure of Silicon Valley Bank has torn into global markets, with investors ripping up their forecasts for further rises in interest rates and dumping bank stocks around the world.

Government bond prices soared on Monday, with two-year US Treasury yields recording their biggest one-day drop since 1987, as fund managers ramped up bets that the US Federal Reserve would now leave interest rates unchanged at its next scheduled monetary policy meeting this month to steady the global financial system. As recently as last week, markets were braced for another half-percentage point rise.

Wall Street’s S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively shortly after the New York open, giving up earlier gains in futures markets which came after US regulators said on Sunday that SVB depositors would be fully repaid and unveiled emergency funding measures in a bid to contain the fallout. In the UK, the Bank of England brokered a deal to sell the UK arm of SVB to HSBC for £1.

Meanwhile, bank stocks dropped heavily. Shares in First Republic, another San Francisco-based bank, dropped 65 per cent before trading in its shares was halted shortly after the open despite a statement on Sunday that it had more than $70bn in unused liquidity. The KBW bank index, which includes larger lenders, fell 13 per cent shortly after the open; Citigroup was down 6 per cent.

Europe’s Stoxx banking index fell 7 per cent, taking its decline since the middle of last week to just over 11 per cent, with all 22 stocks in the index in negative territory. Several lenders suffered double-digit declines on Monday alone, including Spain’s Banco Sabadell and Germany’s Commerzbank. Austria’s Bawag Group fell 8.9 per cent.

The failure of SVB and closure of Signature Bank come just months after the shortlived crisis in UK government bonds, underlining the risks buried in the financial system as central banks rapidly lift borrowing costs in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. Investors and analysts said policymakers at the Fed and elsewhere would need to tread carefully as they sought to hose down inflation.

“The SVB situation is a reminder that Fed hikes are having an effect, even if the economy has held up so far,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management in a note to clients. “Concerns over bank earnings and balance sheets also add to the negative sentiment for . . . equity markets.”

Futures markets show investors believe the US central bank will temper the path of interest rate rises from here, despite Fed chair Jay Powell’s reminder a week ago of his determination to pull down inflation, and despite data on Friday showing that the US economy added 311,000 jobs, higher than the 225,000 forecast by economists.

After weeks of debate about whether the US central bank would raise interest rates by 0.5 or 0.25 per cent, Refinitiv data now shows that traders see a 60 per cent probability that the US central bank will leave rates unchanged — in a range of 4.5-4.75 per cent — later this month.

Goldman Sachs said on Monday that it no longer expected any increase at the Fed’s meeting ending on March 22 “in light of recent stress in the banking system”.

Investors also scaled back their bets on how high the European Central Bank would raise its deposit rate later this year to 3.25 per cent, down from a peak of 4.2 per cent only last week.

The shake-up in bond markets was substantial. Germany’s interest rate-sensitive two-year bond yield plummeted 0.48 percentage points to 2.62 per cent on Monday, as bond markets rallied sharply in response to fading expectations of further increases in borrowing costs. The rate has fallen from the 14-year high of 3.3 per cent it hit last week, showing how sharply investors have repriced their rate expectations since SVB’s collapse.

In the US, the two-year Treasury yield, which moves with interest rate expectations, fell by 0.41 percentage points to 4.18 per cent. It had previously slipped below 4 per cent to its lowest level since September. The benchmark 10-year government bond yield slipped 0.22 percentage points to 3.47 per cent.

George Saravelos, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, said the SVB rescue package from the Fed, which includes an offer to absorb government debt and mortgage-backed bonds at above-market prices, represented a new form of quantitative easing — the bond-buying programme that US policymakers fired up after the pandemic hit to stabilise the financial system.

“Both the speed and end point of the Fed hiking cycle should come down,” Saravelos said. “We’ve learnt two things over the last few days. First, that this monetary policy tightening cycle is operating with a lag, like every other. Second, that this tightening cycle will now be amplified due to stress in the US banking system.”

Michael Every, an analyst at Rabobank, said the implications of the Fed’s “bailout of Silicon Valley venture capitalists funding Instagram filters that make cats look like dogs” were potentially “enormous”.

“The Fed is de facto allowing a massive easing of financial conditions as well as soaring moral hazard,” he said in a note to clients.

Currencies that perform well in times of stress also rallied. The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc both climbed more than 1 per cent against the dollar.

The rapid collapse of SVB had made market participants “more aware again that the Fed will eventually break something if it keeps raising rates”, said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG.

The bank’s collapse had also “taken the wind out the US dollar’s sails” by highlighting risks associated with rising rates, Hardman added. A measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six international peers fell 0.6 per cent on Monday.

Ahora sí que vamos a ver si de verdad la FED hace "whatever it takes" para contener la inflación.

Incluso manteniendo tipos y jugando a ver quién aguanta más la respiración se pueden llevar otro banco por delante. La marea bajando y muchos sin bañador. Como la FED suba tipos más de uno se larga a Venezuela con lo puesto y todo el cash que se pueda llevar.

Lo mejor, las críticas a Trump por haber cambiado la normativa 

[newclo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYpWrDLfY6g

Me parece mucho más fiero el ataque del oso de youtube que el de WallStreet ( si nos limitamos a lo visto hasta hoy)
Todo lo que sea SP por encima de 2800 lo veo suave.
( incluso por encima de 1500 )

[Benzino Napaloni]

Ahora sí que vamos a ver si de verdad la FED hace "whatever it takes" para contener la inflación.

Incluso manteniendo tipos y jugando a ver quién aguanta más la respiración se pueden llevar otro banco por delante. La marea bajando y muchos sin bañador. Como la FED suba tipos más de uno se larga a Venezuela con lo puesto y todo el cash que se pueda llevar.

Lo mejor, las críticas a Trump por haber cambiado la normativa 

Sobre todo, ahora vamos a comprobar si el plan de "desagüe" estaba realmente ahí.

Rescate generalizado en 2008 y siguientes porque estaba todo de mierda hasta arriba y era eso o al cuerno todo. Perfecto, se hizo.

Pero tarde o temprano tenía que llegar el día en que se completasen acciones como la de Basilea III. Es decir, "en cuanto que esté la economía real y la banca real a salvo, se acabó la barra libre de dinero". Llegó por fin el momento de ver si se va a terminar la quimioterapia. Porque no han sido pocos los que han pensado que el rescate era para volver a las andadas.

[PastorMesetario]

Ahora vamos a ver como se pone a prueba el ya casi mitológico escudo bancario.

Estas primeras instituciones con problemas muy "shadow" no son. 

Por otra parte, me encanta el discurso de la Reserva Federal, que sale al rescate con dinero público (chiquiiii) pero dejando claro que a los contribuyentes no les va a costar nada. Oximoron way of life.

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

El alza de tipos puede hacer caer el precio de las casas y debilitar la economía
https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2023-03-13/el-alza-de-tipos-puede-hacer-caer-el-precio-de-las-casas-y-debilitar-la-economia.html
El mercado inmobiliario español ha comenzado ya a resquebrajarse y entra en un escenario de caídas sustanciales en los precios



Atención: economía = precio-inmuebles.








Pues que se debilite.

Se me ocurre otro titular:

El alza de las temperaturas en Logroño puede hacer caer el precio de las pechugas de pollo y debilitar la economía
https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2023-03-13/el-alza-de-logroño-puede-hacer-caer-el-precio-de-las pechugas de pollo y-debilitar-la-economia.html

A que suena absurdo?

O pisito, o muerte.

Pues así funciona el capitalismopopular en su versión pisitofilia. Parece que a la economía le viene mal que los pobres puedan tener acceso a la vivienda sin tener que ponerse de rodillas  ante el propietariado.

FUEGO Y AZUFRE AL CAPITALISMO POPULAR.

[Derby]

La demanda embalsada...se embalsa mientras alquila:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/three-million-u-s-households-making-over-150-000-are-still-renting-48bd48e4

Three Million U.S. Households Making Over $150,000 Are Still Renting

High cost of homeownership and limited supply of homes for sale drive renters

(...) The number of Americans earning more than $150,000 has been rising in recent years. But higher mortgage rates and steeper home prices have put home purchases beyond the reach of many of these relatively high-earners. Other affluent renters can’t find a house that meets all their expectations, or want to rent in a new city before making a decision on what to buy. Some want to remain mobile and prefer the flexibility of renting over the commitment of homeownership.