www.transicionestructural.NET es un nuevo foro, que a partir del 25/06/2012 se ha separado de su homónimo .COM. No se compartirán nuevos mensajes o usuarios a partir de dicho día.
0 Usuarios y 3 Visitantes están viendo este tema.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative to pursue ‘small but beautiful’ projects as strategy turns 10*Big infrastructure projects have been the hallmark of the Belt and Road Initiative over the past decade, but they have often come with economic and political risk*Analysts say that smaller, less treacherous projects are likely to dominate in the years ahead, including in the digital, healthcare and environmental spacesChina is likely to work on smaller, less risky and more profitable trade-linked infrastructure projects overseas in the coming years after a number of larger ones under the Belt and Road Initiative encountered financial problems that drew international attention, analysts say.This matches what Chinese officials and state media began calling “small but beautiful” additions to the globe-spanning Belt and Road Initiative in 2021, the analysts said, with the projects possibly led by smaller state-run companies or private firms.“That would line up with China’s focus on a more sustainable approach to the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly right now as Beijing confronts worsening credit and debt distress across a range of partners,” said Nick Marro, lead analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasting and advisory service.“Less financially risky and more economically friendly would likely tick some of the boxes here.”The Communist Party-run People’s Daily said last month a series of “small but beautiful” projects had “landed one after another” in agriculture, healthcare and poverty reduction.The State Council Information Office said in February that these types of projects would “increasingly become reality” in the digital, healthcare and environmental spaces.The ideal project under this label would be led by a private firm or a provincial government-owned company, said Naubahar Sharif, a professor and acting head of the Division of Public Policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.Lacking the size of China’s state-owned engineering and construction giants, these companies would probably offer small-scale and profitable projects with little debt.The 40-megawatt Gulshat solar farm in Kazakhstan and the 281 MWh Merredin solar project in Australia were good examples, Sharif said.Risen Energy of Zhejiang province developed Gulshat in 2019 and sold it last year to China’s State Power Investment Corporation. The 37-year-old energy firm acquired its Australian solar farm in 2018, raised debt in Australia the following year and sold it in 2021.Risen’s investor relations office declined to comment for this report.Projects of this scale would allow local governments in China, including Hong Kong and Macau, to play bigger roles in the belt and road, Sharif said.“I think particularly private enterprises will be leading the way,” he said. “They can go to their shareholders and report profits.”The belt and road plan was launched in 2013 as a way of enhancing China’s trade links with the world and expanding its global influence. To date, 151 countries have joined the initiative.From 2013 until 2022, the total volume of Chinese trade of goods with nations involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached nearly US$13 trillion, while two-way investment had topped US$230 billion by the end of 2021, according to the Ministry of Commerce.But the initiative has come under fire for leaving poorer countries in debt to China.Two Chinese creditors alone, Eximbank and the China International Development Cooperation Agency, have suspended more than US$1.3 billion in debt service in 23 countries, including 16 African nations, under a Group of 20 (G20) Covid relief programme, according to the China Africa Research Initiative at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.Suspensions in Zambia totalled US$110 million, US$25 million in the Maldives, US$40 million in Tajikistan and US$378 million in Kenya, the Johns Hopkins data showed. China held 19.6 per cent of Sri Lanka’s US$37.6 billion external debt at the end of 2021.Cases like these have stirred accusations of “debt trap diplomacy” – meaning entrapping countries with loans that they cannot afford to repay, something Beijing has vigorously denied.“I think President Xi [Jinping] expects a course correction on this, otherwise [Belt and Road Initiative] projects will gain a bad reputation and will negatively impact the image of China,” said Guilherme Campos, manager of international business advisory with Dezan Shira & Associates.“I think it is clear that the experience in Sri Lanka, Angola and other countries that are not so politically stable has resulted in a negative experience with the projects that were implemented there.”Austin Strange, assistant professor of international relations in the Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong, said a major rationale for “small but beautiful” is about risk management.“Large infrastructure has been the hallmark of the [Belt and Road Initiative] over the past decade, and these projects generate major economic, social, and political uncertainty given their sheer scale and complexity,” he said.“They can also become reputational liabilities. Smaller projects are not as risky.”Chinese infrastructure developers might consider “mini” hydropower plants, smaller road projects and digital infrastructure projects that fetch a profit with little risk of volatility, Strange said.Small and beautiful could mean setting up a “platform” to develop tens of thousands of small and mid-sized companies with standardised payment methods, quality control and after-sale services aimed at boosting trade, said Victor Gao, vice-president of the Centre for China and Globalisation in Beijing. Tourism would be one target sector, he said.“Larger platforms can be set up to promote cross-border trade of unique products and commodities between and among these regions and countries,” Gao said.
Madre mía... cómo está el patio:Las empresas que utilizan ChatGPT están descubriendo algo preocupante: no sabe guardar un secreto https://www.xataka.com/robotica-e-ia/empresas-que-utilizan-chatgpt-estan-descubriendo-algo-preocupante-no-sabe-guardar-secretoEl agua moja, señores.
Estados Unidos lucha contra la lenta agonía de su ‘downtown’Los centros de grandes ciudades están lejos de recuperarse del golpe de la pandemia y la generalización del teletrabajo, al que se suma el aumento de la criminalidad. Washington y San Francisco se llevan la peor parte(...)Tan acuciante es la crisis que la alcaldesa demócrata de la ciudad, Muriel Bowser, estrenó su tercer mandato en enero lanzando un plan para añadir, antes de 2028, 650.000 metros cuadrados de apartamentos, con los que atraer al downtown (centro de la ciudad) a 15.000 nuevos vecinos. Bowser se ha topado con una versión federal del castizo “Vuelva usted mañana” del escritor español Mariano José de Larra: muchos funcionarios, que suman la tercera parte de los empleados del centro, no quieren oír hablar de retomar completamente el trabajo presencial, la Administración de Joe Biden no parece dispuesta a empeñar sus cortas reservas de capital político en un enfrentamiento con los sindicatos y el Partido Republicano ha empezado a perder la paciencia: la Cámara de Representantes, la única que controlan, aprobó en febrero una ley para “atajar los problemas de improductividad derivados del teletrabajo”. Sus siglas en inglés (los acrónimos ingeniosos les pirran en el Capitolio) son SHOW UP. “Apareced”, en español.El debate sobre el futuro del downtown no es exclusivo de la capital. Tampoco es nuevo: la conversación lleva abierta más de seis décadas, como saben los lectores del clásico de Jane Jacobs Muerte y vida de las grandes ciudades (Capitán Swing). La discusión ha atravesado las más variadas crisis: del aumento de la criminalidad a la bancarrota; de la crisis de los sintecho y los opiáceos a la desigualdad galopante o la gentrificación y sus descontentos, y de la segregación racial y la zonificación urbana al auge de la cultura del mall (esos centros comerciales que son aquí, más que un negocio, un estado mental). La pandemia aceleró muchos de estos procesos hace ya tres años, pero sobre todo dio un impulso exponencial al teletrabajo.Las urbes estadounidenses que basaron su modelo en las oficinas están pagando las consecuencias de esa decisión. “Se organizaron despiadadamente en torno a la eficiencia, y eso las ha hecho menos resistentes”, opina el economista de Harvard Edward Glaeser, autor de El triunfo de las ciudades (Taurus, 2011), repaso a la historia de “una de las grandes creaciones de la Humanidad”, que, argüía en ese exitoso ensayo, ha contribuido a su bienestar, progreso intelectual y crecimiento económico.(...)Un grupo de esos expertos se ha juntado en el proyecto Downtown Recovery, que estudia la recuperación de los centros de 52 ciudades estadounidenses (y 10 canadienses) de más de 350.000 habitantes. A las métricas habituales (porcentaje de oficinas vacantes, uso del transporte público y gasto en comercio minorista) han sumado el análisis de la actividad humana a partir del rastreo de teléfonos móviles. De ahí extraen un porcentaje que compara la vida de antes de la pandemia, cuyo estándar marca el 100%, con la de después. Las urbes de tamaño medio, gracias al teletrabajo, una fiscalidad favorable y una mayor oferta de casas grandes con sitio para una oficina doméstica, lo han llevado mejor, aunque la presión inmobiliaria está expulsando a muchos de sus antiguos vecinos.(...)¿Qué hacer entretanto? Loh adelantó en su entrevista con EL PAÍS las conclusiones de un artículo científico que está a punto de publicar en el que ofrece ideas para reanimar al paciente: “Construir apartamentos; invertir en seguridad, en vista de que el crimen ha aumentado desde 2019; crear espacios públicos de calidad y zonas peatonales (no todas las calles tienen necesariamente que ser alcantarillas llenas de automóviles); reinventar el transporte público, tan afectado por la covid; invertir en industrias en crecimiento capaces de ocupar las oficinas, y crear focos de atracción para los visitantes”.No deja de ser paradójico que el dibujo que saldría de unir todos esos puntos se parezca bastante a una ciudad… europea. ¿Es compatible esa receta con el ideal de la vida del suburbio residencial, indisociable del american way of life? “Tendrá que serlo. Las encuestas muestran que las generaciones milenial y Z prefieren habitar comunidades transitables con acceso a servicios”, argumenta Glaeser. “La ciudad del futuro deberá orientarse más a la vida, al placer, que a la productividad. Lo que salvará a los centros es que la gente quiera disfrutarlos, ir a socializar. Las ciudades europeas han estado históricamente mejor preparadas para eso”.
No estamos tan mal... sólo hay que usar la mediana... y no la media.https://www.meneame.net/m/Art%C3%ADculos/poca-renta-pero-ni-tan-mal-riqueza[ Atención a Alemania, Suecia... ]
Cita de: sudden and sharp en Marzo 19, 2023, 20:28:49 pmNo estamos tan mal... sólo hay que usar la mediana... y no la media.https://www.meneame.net/m/Art%C3%ADculos/poca-renta-pero-ni-tan-mal-riqueza[ Atención a Alemania, Suecia... ]A saber cómo está eso calculado. Porque saben que el porcentaje de riqueza del español en ladrillo es bastante superior la media ocde. A qué precios lo han contabilizado? A los de idealista?Está ponderado en p.p.p.?En fin, interesante pero como no haya más, no es más que anecdotico.Sds.
https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12192472/03/23/El-precio-de-la-vivienda-ya-cae-en-dos-de-cada-tres-paises-avanzados-ante-las-subidas-de-tipos-segun-el-FMI.htmlLa vivienda ya cae en tres de cada dos países avanzadosEvolución trimestral del precio de la vivienda (último trimestre de datos disponible en cada economía)(no sé pegar la gráfica, pero España es el país del mundo -desarrollado- en que menos baja)
Cita de: R.G.C.I.M. en Marzo 19, 2023, 21:00:12 pmCita de: sudden and sharp en Marzo 19, 2023, 20:28:49 pmNo estamos tan mal... sólo hay que usar la mediana... y no la media.https://www.meneame.net/m/Art%C3%ADculos/poca-renta-pero-ni-tan-mal-riqueza[ Atención a Alemania, Suecia... ]A saber cómo está eso calculado. Porque saben que el porcentaje de riqueza del español en ladrillo es bastante superior la media ocde. A qué precios lo han contabilizado? A los de idealista?Está ponderado en p.p.p.?En fin, interesante pero como no haya más, no es más que anecdotico.Sds.Claro, la vivienda es patrimonio, wealth... pero lo es tanto si haces la mediana, como la media.Esos países que "son mas ricos" que nosotros en media, pero menos en mediana... tienen en realidad muy mal repartida la riqueza. (Hay ricos a patadas que distorsionan la media.)
Cita de: sudden and sharp en Marzo 19, 2023, 21:06:00 pmCita de: R.G.C.I.M. en Marzo 19, 2023, 21:00:12 pmCita de: sudden and sharp en Marzo 19, 2023, 20:28:49 pmNo estamos tan mal... sólo hay que usar la mediana... y no la media.https://www.meneame.net/m/Art%C3%ADculos/poca-renta-pero-ni-tan-mal-riqueza[ Atención a Alemania, Suecia... ]A saber cómo está eso calculado. Porque saben que el porcentaje de riqueza del español en ladrillo es bastante superior la media ocde. A qué precios lo han contabilizado? A los de idealista?Está ponderado en p.p.p.?En fin, interesante pero como no haya más, no es más que anecdotico.Sds.Claro, la vivienda es patrimonio, wealth... pero lo es tanto si haces la mediana, como la media.Esos países que "son mas ricos" que nosotros en media, pero menos en mediana... tienen en realidad muy mal repartida la riqueza. (Hay ricos a patadas que distorsionan la media.)Nuestro gini no es malo, pero tampoco es la hostia.No voy a buscarlo ahora, pero no creo que salvo excepciones anglosajonas o de tigres asiáticos, el resto varíen mucho su posición respecto a nosotros con la media. Ergo, hay gato encerrado. Más bien emparedado. Entre ladrillos...Sds.
Cita de: R.G.C.I.M. en Marzo 19, 2023, 21:18:07 pmCita de: sudden and sharp en Marzo 19, 2023, 21:06:00 pmCita de: R.G.C.I.M. en Marzo 19, 2023, 21:00:12 pmCita de: sudden and sharp en Marzo 19, 2023, 20:28:49 pmNo estamos tan mal... sólo hay que usar la mediana... y no la media.https://www.meneame.net/m/Art%C3%ADculos/poca-renta-pero-ni-tan-mal-riqueza[ Atención a Alemania, Suecia... ]A saber cómo está eso calculado. Porque saben que el porcentaje de riqueza del español en ladrillo es bastante superior la media ocde. A qué precios lo han contabilizado? A los de idealista?Está ponderado en p.p.p.?En fin, interesante pero como no haya más, no es más que anecdotico.Sds.Claro, la vivienda es patrimonio, wealth... pero lo es tanto si haces la mediana, como la media.Esos países que "son mas ricos" que nosotros en media, pero menos en mediana... tienen en realidad muy mal repartida la riqueza. (Hay ricos a patadas que distorsionan la media.)Nuestro gini no es malo, pero tampoco es la hostia.No voy a buscarlo ahora, pero no creo que salvo excepciones anglosajonas o de tigres asiáticos, el resto varíen mucho su posición respecto a nosotros con la media. Ergo, hay gato encerrado. Más bien emparedado. Entre ladrillos...Sds.A quién le importa el gini ese...España es el país de la UE con mayor esperanza de vida con 83,3 años y Madrid la región con 85,4https://okdiario.com/salud/espana-pais-ue-mayor-esperanza-vida-833-anos-madrid-region-854-10610526La esperanza de vida de las mujeres (82,9 años) siguió siendo más alta que la de los hombres (77,2 años) en 2021En 2021, la esperanza de vida al nacer en la UE era de 80,1 añosÉste, la esperanza de vida, es un dato *objetivo*, no como el gini ese. (Datos que envían los paises a la onu.)Y luego está el *hecho* de que la mediana es mejor valor medio que la media aritmética para según qué cosas.
UBS agrees $3.25bn rescue deal for rival Credit SuisseRegulators engineer takeover of stricken bank by larger Swiss competitor after frantic weekendUBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse for $3.25bn after a frantic weekend of negotiations brokered by Swiss regulators to safeguard its banking system and attempt to prevent a crisis spreading across global financial markets.The historic deal follows five days in which the Swiss establishment raced to end a deepening crisis at Credit Suisse that threatened to topple the country’s second-largest lender.An emergency SFr50bn ($54bn) credit line provided by the Swiss National Bank on Wednesday failed to arrest a steep decline in the share price, which was exacerbated by wider market turmoil caused by the sudden collapse earlier this month of California-based Silicon Valley Bank.“On Friday the liquidity outflows and market volatility showed it was no longer possible to restore market confidence, and a swift and stabilising solution was absolutely necessary,” Swiss president Alain Berset said at a press conference in Bern on Sunday evening. “This solution was the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS.”UBS will pay about SFr0.76 a share in its own stock, worth SFr3bn, up from a bid of SFr0.25 earlier on Sunday worth around $1bn that was rejected by the Credit Suisse board. However, the offer remains far below Credit Suisse’s closing price of SFr1.86 on Friday.As part of the deal, the SNB has agreed to offer a SFr100bn liquidity line backed by a federal default guarantee to UBS, the Swiss finance ministry said. The government is also providing a loss guarantee of up to SFr9bn, but only after UBS has borne the first SFr5bn of losses on certain portfolios of assets.The combination creates one of the biggest banks in Europe. UBS has $1.1tn of total assets on its balance sheet and Credit Suisse has $575bn.“This is no bailout. This is a commercial solution,” said Swiss finance minister Karin Keller-Sutter. “The bankruptcy would have had huge collateral damage on the Swiss financial market and with a risk of contagion internationally.“The US and UK were very grateful for this solution . . . they really feared a bankruptcy of Credit Suisse,” she added.The takeover means the end for the 167-year-old bank whose headquarters faces its fierce rival UBS across Zurich’s Paradeplatz square.It caps a calamitous few years for Credit Suisse marked by twin crises linked to specialist finance group Greensill Capital and family office Archegos in 2021 resulted in billions of dollars of losses and severely damaged the bank’s reputation for risk management.Under the terms of the deal, some SFr16bn of Credit Suisse’s Additional Tier 1 capital bonds, which are designed to take losses when institutions run into trouble and to transfer the risk of a bank failure from taxpayers to investors, are being wiped out.Credit Suisse said in its statement on Sunday evening that Swiss market regulator Finma had determined the bonds would “be written off to zero”. Around SFr1bn of other capital was also written off.The Swiss federal council — the executive arm of government — will issue an emergency ordnance to waive regulatory and governance hurdles to the swift closing of the transaction. Swiss parliamentarians will also eventually have to approve the process — albeit retrospectively; a vote will be held within the next six months.Credit Suisse chief executive Ulrich Körner had been unable to draw a line under the bank’s crises during his eight-month tenure, with a restructuring plan that included spinning off its investment bank and cutting 9,000 jobs failing to convince investors.Customers withdrew SFr111bn from the group in the final three months of last year. Deposit outflows from Credit Suisse topped SFr10bn a day late last week, the Financial Times has previously reported.Shares in Credit Suisse are down more than 74 per cent over the past year, leaving its market capitalisation on Friday at just $8bn, dwarfed by the roughly $57bn market cap of UBS.For UBS, the deal cements its position as the world’s largest wealth manager, with operations spanning the US, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. The combined entity will have $5tn of invested assets globally.“UBS will remain rock solid,” said UBS chair Colm Kelleher, who will continue to lead the combined entity with chief executive Ralph Hamers.Kelleher said that Credit Suisse’s Swiss division was “a fine asset that we are very determined to keep” and that it was too early to give an estimate of job cuts across the various divisions UBS is acquiring.In 2022, UBS made $7.6bn of profit while Credit Suisse slumped to a $7.9bn loss, effectively wiping out the entire previous decade’s earnings
Yellen, Powell and Lagarde praise fast action by Swiss officials to ensure Credit Suisse deal U.S. and European officials were quick to praise Swiss authorities for helping hammer out UBS’s $3.25 billion deal to buy embattled rival Credit Suisse AG CS, that was announced on Sunday. “We welcome the announcements by the Swiss authorities today to support financial stability. The capital and liquidity positions of the U.S. banking system are strong, and the U.S. financial system is resilient. we have been in close contact with our international counterparts to support their implementation,” said a statement from Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said actions taken by the Swiss authorities were “instrumental for restoring orderly market conditions and ensuring financial stability. The euro area banking sector is resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. In any case, our policy toolkit is fully equipped to provide liquidity support to the euro-area financial system if needed and to preserve the smooth transmission of monetary policy.” The ECB hiked its key interest rate by 50 basis points, while the Fed, dealing with a separate banking crisis in the U.S. that has seen three institutions fail, will meet this week.
Homebuyers are taking on monthly payments 59% higher than at the 2007 peak of the previous housing bubble.As of February, the monthly payment for the median-price single-family home sold in King County at current mortgage rates was $3,945.The good news: This is down from an eye-watering $4,758 in October.The bad news: This is up dramatically from just a year prior, and 59% higher than what we saw at the peak of the previous housing bubble.Even if you adjust the July 2007 peak payment for inflation, it only comes out to about $3,586 in 2023 dollars, meaning that the October 2022 peak was 34% higher, and as of February homebuyers are still looking at payments 10% above the highest level recorded before the last housing bubble burst.I don’t have a lot of commentary to add to this, just to say that this is clearly not sustainable, and in my opinion it’s not mortgage rates that need to come back down, it’s home prices.
Unchecked corporate pricing power is a factor in US inflationProfit margins of US companies have reached levels not seen since the aftermath of the second world war.There is a strong correlation between the rising share of corporate profits in gross domestic product and the sharp price rises in the US after the Covid pandemic, according to a paper published by the University of Massachusetts.Having made windfall profits on the back of commodity price fluctuations and supply bottlenecks, large companies have been emboldened to raise prices further to increase profit margins.They found that there was little evidence that the models used to explain the inflation of the 1970s — such as excess aggregate demand, money supply expansion or increased wage costs that prompted a spiral — applied to this recent rise. Covid-19 price rises are predominantly a sellers’ inflation, they say. Where cost increases are being experienced by all their competitors, companies have felt safe to pass them on in the expectation of an “implicit agreement” that rivals will do the same.