Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[dmar]

¿Cuántos "será en..." llevamos?  ¿Desde hace cuántos años?
¿Cuántos cisnes negros llevamos?  ¿En cuántos años?

Busquen la honestidad:  el futuro NO LO SABE NADIE.
Guárdense de falsos profetas que se alimentan del resentimiento.

Un saludo a todos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Voy a pedir ayuda de nuevo a Cadavre para subir este artículo, muy extenso, pero que ofrece una buena panorámica y excelentes gráficos sobre el tema de los non-banks/shadow banks.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/shadow-banks-account-for-half-of-the-worlds-assetsand-pose-growing-risks-8f4b5961

https://www.barrons.com/articles/shadow-banks-account-for-half-of-the-worlds-assetsand-pose-growing-risks-8f4b5961

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Que bueno J.L. Cava hoy y manana TE-ista

Obligatorio verlo. Como se emociona -me encanta-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGhIqJxNc3g

Tal y como comentó siempretarde el viernes parece que, efectivamente, este fin de semana  José Luis Cava estaba en plan transitionist-mode [on]:

José Luis Cava | Agenda 2030: van a por los ahorradores.3/6/23-10h

José Luis Cava | Nos quedamos sin jóvenes: las consecuencias y la posible solución. 4/6/23 - 10h

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Parece que Hartnett no termina de estar convencido en lo que a las IAs se refiere...

Winners & Losers in May: winners...Nvidia 30%, Magnificent 7 Tech 16%; losers...CNY -3%, Bitcoin -8%, KRE -9%, China -9% (HSI in bear market), oil -11%...AI "baby bubble" dominant, China beared-up by stalled reopening & capital isolation theme.

Saludos.

P.D. Por si pudiesen interesar a alguien, dejo a continuación los informes de Hartnett correspondientes a los días 19 y 25 de mayo que se me pasó postearlos...

[siempretarde]

Aunque hoy con IA y paternalismo no.

Una reduccion de poblacion + una reduccion de produccion (cosa que tambien es necesaria como bien remarca Cadavre hoy mismo -y el problema del agua ademas-). Un ajuste que como estos tienen 2 vertientes:

1.- menor poblacion.
2.- menor consumo de la poblacion existente.

Variacion por disminucion de poblacion
Variacion por disminucion de consumo.
Variacion combinada de disminucion poblacion/consumo.

En cualquier libro esta el grafico.

Y aqui un poco de extra con mercaos.... No se si alguien recuerda un libro, en el cual se buscaban numeros primos, y de repente alguna de las soluciones se basaban en ese cuadrado/rectangulo (en el fondo es un cuadrado) definido por la combinacion del numero P observados y el P ajustado.... la ruptura inferior del cuadrado/rectangulo implica un "re-dibujo" del todo el ambito que observamos.... Solo una idea... la linea importante cambia su angulo.

PD: Cadavre en algun momento se rompe la longitud maxima de pagina
PD2: Cadavre cuanto costaria un barril de Petroleo lleno de agua de la tienda ?

Que bueno J.L. Cava hoy y manana TE-ista

Obligatorio verlo. Como se emociona -me encanta-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGhIqJxNc3g

Tal y como comentó siempretarde el viernes parece que, efectivamente, este fin de semana  José Luis Cava estaba en plan transitionist-mode [on]:

José Luis Cava | Agenda 2030: van a por los ahorradores.3/6/23-10h

José Luis Cava | Nos quedamos sin jóvenes: las consecuencias y la posible solución. 4/6/23 - 10h

Saludos.

[asustadísimos]

[La Agenda 2030 está afinada con el ortograma capitalista.

La planificación del 5.º escalón del sector público, el mundial, es así.

Recordemos que los otros 4 escalones son (entre paréntesis, los nuestros): supraestatal (UE), estatal (España), regional (La Atea) y local (Cuasimodo).

Los 'privadosectoristas' pondrían por encima de los 5 su soberaniita individual, la suya; la tuya, la luchas tú.

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/es/
El objetivo n.º 1 es la pobreza. Y el 2.º, el hambre. ¿Algo que objetar?

La Agenda 2030 fue aprobada por unanimidad de la totalidad de países de la ONU, los 193.

En la Agenda 2030, sobre todo leyendo las metas en que se desdoblan los objetivos, queda clarísima la superación del modelo popularcapitalista y el advenimiento de una era de Planificación Central Capitalista. Si no, Mao; porque Mao ma, nanay. Mao ma no existe para la Agenda 2030. O Mao o Ma oma no es una opción para el 5.º nivel. ¿Lo sentimos por los anarquistas conservadores 'irrestrictos'? No. Ya no sentimos nada por nadie. ¡Que les den!

No es de extrañar que los cerebros mercheros, dada su irracionalidad individualista, subjetivista e inmanentista (puritanismo calvinista), rechacen la Agenda 2030.

Como mean colonia, su libre examen es superior al tuyo. Pero no son más que Marujita criticando a la presidenta de la comunidad a gritos por el patio de luces mientras tiende bragas con restos de palominos.

¿Por qué los popularcapitalistas no rechazan al FMI-BM, que también es sector público mundial, y, cuando la sentencia de muerte al popularcapitalismo (2006-2010), salieron en tromba a pedir que se abriera un paréntesis en su querido 'mercao'?

Ya que sale la matemática, ¡ja!, de la oferta y la demanda, si Walras levantara la cabeza, abominaría del falsoliberalismo neoliberal, porque, a diferencia de su padre, tenía sensibilidad.

Walras es anterior a Marshall, solo que era francés, algo imperdonable para el imperio. El padre de Walras, que también era economista, preocupado por la sensibilidad de su hijito, le escribió en 1859 lo siguiente, lean detenidamente, señoras, señores: «Algo que encuentro perfectamente satisfactorio en el plan de tu trabajo es tu intención —que apruebo desde cualquier punto de vista— de mantenerte en los límites más inofensivos respecto a los señores propietarios. Hay que dedicarse a la economía política como uno se dedicaría a la acústica o a la mecánica».

¿Qué les parece? Qué franqueza tan desnuda, ¿no? «No ofender a los señores propietarios», ¡toma ya!

«Acústica y mecánica» en lenguaje de hoy es todo eso que los mistificadores te reprochan ensoberbecidos que «es de 1.º de Económicas», como que controlar un precio es malo malísimo; cuando es evidente que es infinitamente más barato y eficaz que toquetear el nivel general de tipos de interés para toda la economía y sentarse a esperar a trimestres vista las consecuencias del endurecimiento en el precio irracional que se quiere combatir, si este tiene a bien darse por aludido.

LA VIVIENDA ES EL IMPUESTAZO PRIVADO FÁBRICA DE POBREZA EN LOS PAÍSES NO POBRES.

La vivienda, en Occidente, mete a buena parte de la población en rentas disponibles individuales en el umbral de la meta 1.1. de la Agenda 2030: 1,25 dólares día por persona, es decir 40 euritos al mes para comer.

En Madrid hay hambre.]

[siempretarde]

Que.... del rincon del vago.... dime payo donde puedo entrar y donde estan los niveles..... 

Claro que no lo sabe nadie, cuanto cuesta payo.... dime un numero... Sudden no es que busque el ban, es que tambien hay que ver lo que piden.....

Con una buena organizacion en la cabeza de las "olas".... estariamos bien... o no ?

¿Cuántos "será en..." llevamos?  ¿Desde hace cuántos años?
¿Cuántos cisnes negros llevamos?  ¿En cuántos años?

Busquen la honestidad:  el futuro NO LO SABE NADIE.
Guárdense de falsos profetas que se alimentan del resentimiento.

Un saludo a todos.

[saturno]

Ya que sale la matemática, ¡ja!, de la oferta y la demanda, si Walras levantara la cabeza, abominaría del falsoliberalismo neoliberal, porque, a diferencia de su padre, tenía sensibilidad.

Walras es anterior a Marshall, solo que era francés, algo imperdonable para el imperio. El padre de Walras, que también era economista, preocupado por la sensibilidad de su hijito, le escribió en 1859 lo siguiente, lean detenidamente, señoras, señores: «Algo que encuentro perfectamente satisfactorio en el plan de tu trabajo es tu intención —que apruebo desde cualquier punto de vista— de mantenerte en los límites más inofensivos respecto a los señores propietarios. Hay que dedicarse a la economía política como uno se dedicaría a la acústica o a la mecánica».

Apunte importante.

Intenten traducir la wikipedia v/FR, que es francamente completa:
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A9on_Walras

Fue quien formuló el primero el concepto sintético/matemático de equilibrio general
v/ES= https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teor%C3%ADa_del_equilibrio_general
v/FR= https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89quilibre_g%C3%A9n%C3%A9ral

Defendía la nacionalización del suelo (en la idea de George). Pero la escuela germánica (historicista) dominante en Francia bloqueó su carrera y se afincó finalmente en Suiza, Univ. de Lausana, y Wilfredo Pareto fue su sucesor.

Aparte, parece que su  noción de economía politica  le viene de los fisiócratas aunque él sólo reconoce la importancia de demostrar  matemáticamente la competencia de los precios. Al final, sólo se quedó con la idea (que era de su padre) del impuesto unificado sobre los suelos (al estilo de H.George)

Otro apunte muy sencillo, sobre su padre (cuyo trabajo continuó):
v/FR= https://www.persee.fr/doc/annor_0003-4134_1983_num_33_3_5528

(Sólo va de apuntes. Igual he metido tonterías. Pero Walras parece de sobra una referencia para entender la economía que viene.)

[Cadavre Exquis]

What Stops Millions of Americans From Going Green: Their Landlords
Posted by EditorDavid on Sunday June 04, 2023 @07:34AM from the not-easy-being-green dept.

The Washington Post looks at "Americans who want to lower their carbon footprints — but are stymied by their landlords."

Homes and apartments burn oil and gas, suck up electricity, and account for about one-fifth of the United States' total greenhouse gas emissions. But current attempts to green America's homes, including billions of dollars in tax credits for energy efficient appliances and retrofits, seem aimed at the affluent owners of detached, single-family homes — in short, Mad-Men-style suburbias. In reality, about one-third of the country's households live in rented apartments or houses... And they generally do not have the spare cash — or the permission from their landlords — to make environmental upgrades. Part of the issue is what's known in economics as the "split-incentive problem," or the "landlord-tenant problem." Roughly 75% of tenants in the United States pay their own utility bills; that means they have a strong incentive to try to conserve electricity, water, or gas to save cash. But their landlords, who have to pay for installing and replacing those appliances and heating systems, don't. They benefit from renting out their properties as quickly and cheaply as possible...

Renters, therefore, are often stuck with leaky housing, inefficient appliances and ancient heating systems. According to one study from 2018, renters use almost 3 percent more energy than homeowners thanks to the split incentive problem... President Biden's signature climate bill includes an estimated $37 billion in tax credits to help households switch to efficient heat pumps, water heaters, or to seal up and insulate their homes. Those credits are applicable to individual homeowners or renters — but not landlords. According to IRS guidance, "the credits are never available for a home that you don't use as a residence." And few renters are going to want to spend thousands of dollars on a heat pump that they'll have to leave behind when they move...

If the landlord problem isn't solved, millions of less wealthy Americans could be left out of the green transition — and will be stuck with higher energy bills. For example, even in the same income bracket, homeowners are almost three times more likely than renters to own electric vehicles — largely because renters lack home charging. There are programs, including some in America's giant climate bill, that could change this... Still, those programs haven't launched yet and aren't expected until at least late this year. And even though renters make up one-third of American households, they're still getting less investment; the tax credits for homeowners are uncapped. The federal government could end up spending well over $50 billion on homeowners, and about $8 billion on renters.

Most renters remain at the mercy of their apartment managers and landlords.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-lifeline-for-property-is-all-gummed-up-c67ec789

A Lifeline for Property Is All Gummed Up

Alternative lenders once made good money issuing commercial real-estate loans—now they are stuck on the sidelines

Banks are getting stingy with commercial property mortgages. Ideally, alternative lenders could step in and help landlords to refinance their debts, but this part of the lending market isn’t in great shape either.

Loans for the property industry are drying up fast. The CBRE Lending Momentum Index, a proxy for U.S. commercial real estate lending, fell 54% in the first quarter of 2023 compared with a year ago. Banks, which usually issue around half of all commercial real-estate loans in the U.S., are stepping back until it is clear where real-estate values will settle. Their deposits are shrinking and they need to hold on to cash in case the property loans already on their books get into difficulty.

Alternative lenders would love to fill in some of the gaps. “When the market is dislocated, it is often the best time to invest,” says Harbor Group International President Richard Litton, whose firm recently raised $1.6 billion for a debt fund focused on financing apartments.

Real estate debt funds made good returns in the years after the 2008 global financial crisis, which was the last time the banks took a step back from property lending. Blackstone said on its latest earnings call that this year will be “a very favorable time” to be a real estate lender as property owners hunt for scarce credit. 

Private lenders charge a lot more than banks. Debt fund spreads for floating-rate loans can range from 3 to 7.5 percentage points above the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) depending on the asset, according to Rachel Vinson, CBRE’s U.S. president of debt and structured finance. Bank spreads are lower—usually 2 to 2.5 percentage points above SOFR.

But the high rates that alternative lenders now charge make their loans unappealing to most borrowers. A floating rate bridge loan for a multifamily apartment block from a debt fund will cost 8% to 10% today. Property buyers would need to find buildings at a very low price to justify taking on such an expensive loan.

(...)The crunch in both bank and nonbank lending is happening at a bad time for landlords, as 2023 is a busy year for loan maturities. A wall of securitized debt valued at $163 billion—the biggest annual amount over the next decade—comes due this year, according to Marc McDevitt, senior managing director at CRED iQ. This figure doesn’t include the loans sitting on banks’ books.

Alternative lenders can offer only a drop in the ocean compared with how much cash the property industry actually needs. Last month, real estate debt funds in North America had $42.7 billion of dry powder, according to Preqin data—enough to refinance just over a quarter of the securitized debt maturing in the U.S. this year.

The real solution to the property industry’s problems is to get banks lending again. It could take quite some time. 

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1665380224899379203

@RobinBrooksIIF
Euro is falling against the Dollar, but that's just the Dollar making up lost ground as markets scale back US recession odds. The Euro is actually insanely strong. One easy way to see this is to look at Euro versus Yen. EUR/JPY is at its strongest levels in more than a decade...

[saturno]

What Stops Millions of Americans From Going Green: Their Landlords
Posted by EditorDavid on Sunday June 04, 2023 @07:34AM from the not-easy-being-green dept.

La solución es prohibir el alquiler de viviendas de clase  energética inferior a "E"
Lo hablamos hace poco de Francia pero supongo se generalizará.

Los servicers de vvdas en alquiler que firmen convenios "sociales" son las que obtendrán esas desgravaciones fiscales, No es que se las nieguen, es que es la zanahoria para obedecer
Y firmarán los convenios. Y obtendrán desgravaciones fiscales. Idiotas no son.

Los particulares... pues tendrán que vender sur clases "E" a los servicers
A precio de mercado (hundido), y descontando la puesta a nivel energética.
En realidad son ellos los que van a dar crédito a los servicers aparte de financiar el IBI.

Desde luego que no van a bajar los "valores de referencia" fiscales. Es la mejor forma de sostener el precio, Pero a cambio de pagar el impuesto proporcional.
Es decir, los pariculares tendrán que aceptar en metálico ~ 20% del valor de referencia catastral y el resto en un estupendo título de participe en la SOCIMI-servicers diciéndoles que  podrán venderlo, cuando vuelvan los tiempos de vino y rosas  .

Y aceptarán seguro.
Maruja, aquí dice  que ya semos capitalistas. Lo dice este título de valor que dice que tenemos 80% de nuestra casa. Semos mayoritarios en nuestra casa, Nadie nos puede echar ! Con la pensión y el título de la casa, y los 25-50K que nos dan tenemos para vivir sin estrecheces. ¿A que si? Mira nuestra vida. Hemos fundado una dinastía de herederos. Somos la encarnación del éxito.   Para celebrarlo, además de sopa de avecrem, abrimos una lata de sardinas y ya nos repartimos la última aceituna. .


(esto último, para responder a Chosen sobre cómo se va a propagar el caracrack beneficiando a la sociedad civil. Bueno, la sociedad civil, cuanto antes se organice, antes se beneficiará. Pero hay que volver a aprender a vivir en sociedad. Eduquen a vuestros hijos. Y severamente ante cualquier influencia de la mentalidad depredadora del prójimo. De cómo lo hagan tendrán amigos, fundarán familias, tendrán descendencia, y os honrarán. ¡Ay de quienes se crean superiores a sus semejantes por ser herederos o propietarios!)

[sudden and sharp]

A precio de mercado...








Beeeeeeeeeeep!
[  ]











Más en serio... oligopolizar la "situación" no es la solución.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/world/world-banks-new-chief-asks-staff-double-down-development-climate-efforts-2023-06-02/

World Bank's new chief asks staff to 'double down' on development, climate efforts

WASHINGTON, June 2 (Reuters) - The World Bank's new president Ajay Banga on Friday asked the lender's 16,000 staff to "double down" on development and climate efforts as he seeks to accelerate the bank's evolution to tackle the most pressing global problems.

On his first day in the job, the former Mastercard (MA.N) CEO told staff in a memo seen by Reuters that he would seek to recruit each of them to work towards his vision "to create a world free from poverty on a livable planet."

"Making good on our ambition will require us to evolve to maximize resources and write a new playbook, to think creatively, take informed risks and forge new partnerships with civil society and multilateral institutions," Banga wrote.

He also said the bank needed to become more efficient, slashing the approval time for financing projects, which can now take up to three years.

"The process is overly elaborate and subject to multiple review mechanisms that not only cost valuable years but erode staff ambition," he said, adding to a "trust deficit" among developing countries.

Banga on Thursday met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who urged him to "get the most out of the bank's balance sheet" and mobilize more private capital, the Treasury said.

Yellen last year began pressing the World Bank and other multilateral lenders to revamp their business models and dramatically scale up lending resources to address climate change, pandemics, food security and other global crises.

This would move the development lenders beyond the country-specific project loans they have pursued for decades, though she has demanded they maintain their core mission to reduce poverty.

In his memo, which incorporated his statement to the World Bank Executive Board during an April 1 job interview, Banga said annual investments of trillions of dollars were needed to arrest the forces of climate change and fragility, while building up human capital and fighting inequality in health, education, and financial access.

"We are at a critical moment in the arc of humanity and the planet. The World Bank Group is being asked to lead the way, to double down on development and climate efforts and to deliver even more impact and results," he said.

He added this would require "all shoulders to the wheel," and all of the World Bank's divisions working together to deliver solutions needed by the world.

Banga, 63, was elected to a five-year term as World Bank president by the lender's board of governors in May. Nominated by U.S. President Joe Biden, the Indian-born finance and development expert was the sole contender for the job.

CLIMATE DEMANDS

He takes over from David Malpass, who came under criticism last year after remarks that raised questions about his personal views on global warming despite doubling the bank's climate finance during his tenure to $32 billion last year.

Climate and development groups welcomed Banga and began presenting demands, including that the bank fully withdraw from financing fossil fuel projects and take stronger action to cancel the debts of poor countries.

Kevin Gallagher, director of Boston University's Global Development Policy Center, said Banga will first need to restore staff morale at the bank and quickly implement balance sheet reforms to squeeze more lending from existing resources.

"On his watch, the world has to deliver on the sustainable development goals and a big tranche of the Paris climate commitments. There's just no way he can do it without a capital increase and a major increase in resources."[/quote]

[Derby]

https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-reason-for-layoffs-former-senior-tech-leader-2023-5

I'm an ex-Amazon senior leader. Here's why layoffs keep happening and why ambitious managers are fueling them.

*Brandon Southern is the former head of analytics at eBay, Amazon, and GameStop.
*He explains that companies say they want efficient teams but don't reward those who create them.
*Southern also says that managers add headcount when seeking a promotion and bloat the company.

I've realized that managers are responsible for layoffs.

As the former head of analytics at eBay, Amazon, and GameStop, I have seen several layoffs throughout my 20+ years in the workforce. I've recently been thinking a bit deeper about why layoffs occur at companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and others.

At most companies, the reason for layoffs is almost always the same: trimming expenses with a goal to achieve better margins. But many of those expenses shouldn't have existed to begin with.

From what I've seen, managers are responsible for layoffs because they end up bloating a company when seeking promotions. Let me explain.

When it comes to promotion size matters

To get promoted, you have to show that you're able to manage a larger scope, which almost always includes managing more team members. But managers rarely inherit additional teams or team members. Instead, the only way that managers can demonstrate their ability to lead a larger team is to hire more people. By hiring more team members, the manager's scope would naturally increase which increased the odds of being promoted.

Even though executives at every company I've worked at — including Amazon, eBay, Gamestop, VMware, and multiple start-ups — stressed the importance of creating more efficient teams, they never actually rewarded those who were able to operate efficiently.

So instead of incentivizing leaders to create more efficient and profitable organizations, managers are incentivized to do the opposite.

Efficient teams would often end up getting their expenses reduced even further because they're performing well with their current resources (while other teams would see an increase in their budgets or more hires because it looks like they need more to operate).

At the end of the day, everyone wants a bigger team or budget

A manager's cost-saving efforts don't impact one team in isolation. A standstill on budget or headcount reflects on the manager and the manager's manager — all the way to the top.

So even if a leader says they want more efficiency, what they really want is a bigger scope and promotion to help them move up as well. And efficient teams aren't actually helping them get there.

And if you're the person who is reducing scope and budget (actual or relative to others), then you're working against your manager — which is never a good thing to do.

If this doesn't feel convincing enough, we have the annual review process to offer additional evidence: Rarely do we see a goal written in someone's review or performance asking them to reduce costs.

Without goals and targets for individual employees, they aren't incentivized to become more thoughtful and creative to reduce costs.

As great as becoming efficient sounds, it's almost always at odds with getting promoted.

This is why so many leaders first look to add more headcount instead of first looking to make the organization more efficient. And why not?

When times are good, money is flowing, riskier projects are accepted, and budgets are getting approved. It's quicker, easier, the smart choice for personal success, and everyone else is doing it. But it's a ticking time bomb.

By not temporarily changing the mindset to assume that the only way to grow is through efficiency and cost savings, managers will take the shortest and most lucrative path — which is to default hiring instead of increasing efficiency.

This has and will continue to cause organizations to quickly become bloated while the increased operating expenses are shadowed by recent revenue and profit growth.

But when the next inevitable downturn occurs, the company will be forced to remove the bloat by reducing headcount to maintain costs and margin.

Executives can break the cycle by rewarding efficiencies

To break the cycle, executives will need to address problems head-on and reward for efficiencies while not over-rewarding to the point where managers focus on making their organization as small as possible.

For example, if executives over-incentivize for efficiency, managers could try to reduce expenses and headcount to a level that leads to a reduction in long-term investments that are crucial to the company's success. Instead, they should maintain a proper balance of rewarding managers that champion cost-saving process improvement plans while hiring for strategic reasons and projects.

However, given human nature and the constant desire to build something bigger, I doubt that there is any real concern with managers trying to make their organizations as small as possible.

Brandon Southern is the former head of analytics at eBay, Amazon, and GameStop. He also creates TikToks about data analytics and career development.