Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230412/page/20/textview

El presidente de Suiza condena la ineptitud de la cúpula de Credit Suisse

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2023-04-11/el-fmi-sube-la-prevision-de-crecimiento-de-espana-para-2023-pero-baja-la-de-2024.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12222593/04/23/el-fmi-revisa-al-alza-el-crecimiento-de-espana-que-sera-la-locomotora-del-euro-durante-tres-anos-seguidos.html

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/04/11/6434a5b3e5fdea682c8b45d3.html

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/04/12/6435adf6468aebaa3f8b45c3.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.eldebate.com/economia/20230412/guindos-sorprendido-debate-sobre-ferrovial-dice-son-accionistas-mas-juegan_107433.html

De Guindos, sorprendido por el debate sobre Ferrovial: «Son los accionistas los que más se juegan»

El vicepresidente del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), Luis de Guindos, ha expresado su sorpresa por que la cuestión del posible traslado de una empresa como Ferrovial se haya acabado elevando al debate público, limitándose a recordar que son los accionistas de la compañía los que más se están jugando para bien o para mal.

Accionistas

«Los que más se están jugando son los accionistas de la empresa y si toman la decisión correcta o no, se verá reflejado en el valor de la empresa», ha apuntado Guindos en su intervención en un acto organizado por la Asociación para el Progreso de la Dirección (APD) en colaboración con Ibercaja.

En todo caso, Guindos ha insistido en que situaciones como esta señalan la necesidad de que Europa se dote de una verdadera unión del mercado de capitales para que las condiciones de emisión, cotización, supervisión de mercados sean idénticas, incluyendo una normativa común de insolvencias.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiYjgAyp0wo

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2023-04-11/no-es-2008-el-fmi-da-por-contenida-la-crisis-financiera.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12222795/04/23/el-fmi-busca-alejar-los-fantasmas-de-2008-pero-admite-que-las-grietas-financieras-no-paran-de-crecer.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-costs-largest-contributor-march-inflation-data-153852726.html

Housing costs 'by far the largest contributor’ in March inflation data as rent demand rebounds

Housing costs are still a key driver of inflation, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday, even as the residential market stabilizes.

The shelter component of the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) — which makes up a third of the overall inflation index — rose 0.6% over the last month after rising 0.8% in February. On a yearly basis, shelter climbed 8.2% in March.

The shelter index consists of what rent prices and what a homeowner would pay to rent an equivalent apartment, known as owners' equivalent rent, which gained 0.5% over the last month.

The index for shelter was "by far the largest contributor" to the monthly increase in the index for all items excluding food and energy, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Consumer prices rose at the slowest pace since May 2021.

“Shelter costs posted their smallest gain since April 2022, up 0.56%, with rent prices and owners’ equivalent rent up 0.5%, their smallest advance since March 2022 and May 2022, respectively. Excluding shelter costs, services prices were unchanged on the month,” Gregory Daco, Chief Economist at EY, wrote following the release.

"This is reassuring in two ways. First, it indicates that we may have passed peak sequential momentum in CPI shelter cost. Second, it points to strong disinflationary forces in the coming months as housing cost pressures ease significantly on the back of a sharp pullback in housing demand. This slowdown may surprise many on the downside once it gets underway,” he added.

This data from the BLS comes after real-time data from RealPage showed apartment demand has rebounded back into positive territory this year, but less quickly than supply.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20230322.pdf

pág. 6:

(...) housing services inflation was expected to peak later this year and then move down, while core nonhousing services inflation was forecast to slow gradually as nominal wage growth eased further.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/fed-expects-banking-crisis-to-cause-a-recession-this-year-minutes-show.html

Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12217925/04/23/el-gobierno-pone-puente-de-plata-a-prejubilar-con-52-anos-.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230412/page/30/textview

La rentabilidad bruta de la vivienda baja al 7,1% en el primer trimestre

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12221945/04/23/crece-el-tiempo-para-pagar-una-vivienda-los-ciudadanos-destinan-67-anos-de-salario-integro.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/housing-market-forecast-real-estate-home-prices-crash-rebound-zillow-2023-4

The housing market is confusing top real-estate forecasters, and no one agrees if home prices are going to fall or climb this year

(...)Zillow: Home prices will rise

Based on the Zillow Home Value Index, analysts forecast that home prices will increase 0.5% from January 2023 to January 2024.

Skylar Olsen, Zillow's chief economist, told Insider at a reporter roundtable last week that the lack of inventory makes it difficult to anticipate price declines.

"We can't promise that home prices will continue to fall because the inventory is not there to allow that to happen," she said. "I really don't know where the inventory comes from to help prices come down."

CoreLogic: Home prices will rise

After seven consecutive months of declines, the CoreLogic Home Price Index showed a 0.8% sequential rise in February, and the firm's chief economist said last week that pent-up homebuyer demand alongside declining rates has pushed Americans back into the market.

By February 2024, CoreLogic expects home prices to increase year over year by 3.7%.

Moody's Analytics: Home prices will fall

The firm's economists expect home prices — as measured by Moody's Analytics Repeat Sales House Price Index — to fall 4.2% between December 2022 and December 2023.

"Likely increases in unemployment and a US recession later this year will additionally pressure sales and prices," analysts from Moody's Investors service wrote in a report early this month.

National Association of Realtors: Home prices will rise

In a report published in March, the NAR forecasted that existing home prices will see a 1.3% climb by the first quarter of 2024, and new home prices will see a 2.6% increase for the same period.

Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of forecasting at the NAR, told Insider last month that the banking crisis could lead to mortgage rates falling faster than expected, which could ultimately lead to more buyers entering the market.

[Derby]

Imran Khan dice que habrá que intervenir quirúrgicamente en Pakistán. Un pais totalmente asfixiado por la deuda exterior en dólares...

https://www.ft.com/content/481b1d9c-dd54-4748-8d3d-ecb2addbf081

Imran Khan says Pakistan’s economic crisis requires ‘conducting surgery’

Former prime minister warns debt burden on low-income countries is unmanageable

Imran Khan has said Pakistan will struggle to break out of a cycle of debilitating debt repayments without reform, as the country’s opposition leader and former prime minister warns the debt burden on low- and middle-income economies is becoming unmanageable.

“Whatever we do, when we look ahead, the debt is growing, our economy is slowly shrinking,” Khan, whose Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party is favoured to win national elections this year, told the Financial Times. “From my party’s point of view, we’ve started thinking that we’re stuck.”

Pakistan is in the middle of one of its worst economic crises. Analysts have said the country, which is struggling to revive a roughly $7bn IMF lending programme, is at risk of defaulting, while its foreign reserves have fallen to $4.2bn, less than enough for one month’s worth of imports.

Khan said the government needed to break out of borrowing cycles that have held back developing economies but ruled out a default if his party returned to power, saying it would prioritise domestic reforms over seeking debt relief.

“Is the answer getting more loans, or is the answer to restructure the way we run the country?” he said. “We have to conduct surgery in Pakistan in the way we run our government.”

Khan said his team was developing a strategy if he returned to power in Pakistan to juggle loan repayments and domestic spending.

“We’re sitting with our economists [on] how to come up with a plan with which we can sit with the IMF and give them a viable way of being able to pay our debts,” Khan said. “But at the same time, our economy should not be choked so that our ability to pay debt goes down.”

Khan, however, faces a barrage of legal challenges that could prevent him from running for office if convicted, including allegations that he unlawfully sold gifts he received while serving as prime minister.

Pakistan is an extreme example of the debt burden saddling low- and middle-income countries. Campaign group Debt Justice warned this week that poor countries were facing their highest bills for debt servicing in 25 years. Pakistan’s scheduled repayments on foreign public debts are equivalent to 47 per cent of government revenues in 2023, the group said.

“It’s not just Pakistan,” Khan said. “Once you start borrowing in dollars and you have to service your debt in dollars, if your dollar income doesn’t improve or increase, how are you going to then pay your debts?

“Unless we increase our dollar earnings to exports, I don’t see how we would be able to service any debts in Pakistan, whether it’s Chinese or Paris Club or commercial debts.”

Khan, who served as prime minister from 2018 until he was ousted in a no-confidence vote last year, said his plans included restructuring lossmaking state-owned enterprises and boosting the tax base.

Many of Pakistan’s economic pressures started during his time in office but have worsened dramatically in recent months. Inflation rose to a historic high of 35 per cent in March, and the dwindling foreign reserves have created shortages of essential goods including medicine.

Though Khan took some steps towards reforms while in power, many said his economic agenda failed due to mismanagement, erratic decision-making and pandemic disruption. The former cricketer, who once said he would rather die than “beg” a superpower for money, agreed a deal with the IMF in 2019, only for the programme to stall after his government backtracked on cutting energy subsidies.

Khan is engaged in a bitter stand-off with arch-rival Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose government has been unable to agree a reform plan with the IMF. While the fund argues that measures such as removing subsidies are necessary to stabilise the economy, Sharif’s government fears they would hurt the poor and bolster support for the populist Khan ahead of elections.

Even if Khan prevails, many analysts are sceptical he will have the political strength to overhaul Pakistan’s flagging economy.

“We have an economic structure which is globally uncompetitive,” said Abid Hasan, a former World Bank economist. “Some of it will have to be dismantled . . . You will require huge consensus. The PTI alone will not be able to do it.”

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2023/04/13/6436f3c0468aeb0d348b4646.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2023/04/12/643674a5e5fdea682c8b4624.html

Saludos.

[asustadísimos]

[La angloesfera, el imperio realmente existente, tiene una crisis socioeconómica mucho más profunda de lo que se cree.

La dialéctica entre el modelo popularcapitalista de los 1980, saturadísimo, y el sistema capitalista ha llegado a la ruptura de la unidad global entre gobernados y gobernantes, unidad que es el núcleo de la sociedad política (vid. brexit, Trump, proteccionismo, desglobalización, 'woke', Ucrania, feminismo de 4ª ola, ateísmo-de-derecha).

Como decimos en este blog, hay un guerra civil terrorista de los 'hactibos-mercaos' contra el dinero-capital. La 'inflación rara' forma parte de la descomposición. Cada vez que los perdedores, resentidos y echados al monte, suben sus precios ('sellers' inflation', 'greed inflation', 'shelter inflation'), saben que atentan contra el dinero:
—Esta mansión vale '17 million dollars'.
—No sabía que el dólar ha caído tanto de valor.
—Eres un agente social indeseable.
—Que te den.
Lo mismo podemos decir de los tenderos:
—Esta deliciosa pizza congelada vale un 17% más.
—No sabía que el dinero ha caído tanto de valor.
—Eres un agente social indeseable.
—Que te den.

Paradójicamente, los precios extravagantes, fijados arbitrariamente por los resentidos, no son rechazados por la mayoría natural. Tampoco los programas electorales que los amparan, especialmente de la derecha. Porque los perdedores ansían que el presente se parezca al que debiera ser para que tenga alguna posibilidad de acaecer el futuro ilusorio que han descontado al fantasear contemplando su 'himbersión.

Los usureros mismos se asombran de hasta dónde pueden llegar en su exploración de precios máximos absorbibles por los yonquis del dinero-sin-trabajar. En paralelo, las autoridades también se asombran de lo lejos que estamos del coma inducido por la pasteurización vía tipos de interés —y ahora esterilización vía traslado de liquidez a la deuda pública—. 'Hactibos' y dinero han entrado en una espiral sadomasoquista, ciertamente. Vamos a acabar con el Poder controlando directamente los precios, por la sencilla razón de que es menos malo que retorcer la oferta monetaria.

La crónica de este proceso de descomposición es tristísima. Los enemigos del imperio, obviamente, no caben de gozo.

La Unión Europea no está tan subordinada al centro del imperio como se piensa. Está en tensión dialéctica con él. Los análisis al respecto suelen olvidarse de qué significa gozar de una área monetaria propia liberada de anclaje al dólar (ejemplo contrario extremo: el peso argentino). Pronto se verá esto que decimos, porque el tipo de cambio EUR/USD de equilibrio, consistente con la diferencia de poder entre las dos zonas monetarias, está muy por encima del actual (en nuestra opinión, debiera pasar de 1,1000 a 1,6000, tras la suelta del nuevo modelo de sustitución del popularcapitalista).

Dicho de otro modo, solo EEUU podrá rematar la inflación rara depreciando su moneda, para eso es el centro del imperio (N. B.: la Economía dicta que el centro de la angloesfera no es UK, sino EEUU).

En la UE, todo el reequilibrio de precios relativos que no este velando ahora la inflación, quedará para ser ajustado 'a pelo', con deflación.

La posición de España en todo esto no es tan secundaria como se cree. España es el país más americano de la Unión Europea y, por tanto, el que más se deja llevar por la obesidad mórbida. Mal asunto. Porque 'queremos hacernos los americanos',
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqlJwMFtMCs
pero, aquí, la moneda no va a depreciarse, sino apreciarse. Hace años se quitaba hierro a este asunto con la ideíta de un 'catch up' pendiente. Hoy ya no funciona ese placebo, al menos en 'centros y costas'.

Es decir, España es una vulnerabilidad importante de una eurozona convenientemente comandada (Macron y Scholz) por la socialdemocracia (para eso la pagamos, para que amortigüe contradicciones en los trances estructurales). Ciertamente, qué sincronía tan desgraciada la del ciclo electoral español (2023) con la maduración final del enfrentamiento del sistema capitalista y el impresentable modelo popularcapitalista. Un servidor, madrileño, es pesimista en relación con lo que va a pasar en Madrid —el precedente de Andalucía, vid. Málaga, es para echarse a temblar: solo resucitación, nada de resurrección del sistema en el nuevo modelo de recambio—. Añadan la moda de los empresones supermadrileños vinculados al ladrillo de arrimarse a la angloesfera, incluso para proceder a revalorizaciones meramente contables en sus Balances (con el correspondiente coro de falsoliberales, sofistas epidícticos que les lamen el trasero). Sin embargo, también soy español y patriota europeo, no solo por ser haber sido oficial de la Escala de Complemento cuando hice la mili; por eso digo con total convencimiento que el contacto de España con la angloesfera única y exclusivamente ha darse a través de la UE. Señoras, señores, hay peligro de que la eurozona nos aplique un régimen especial, dadas las veleidades 'angloesferófilas' de nuestros nacioncitas —madrileñistas incluidos— y pseudocalvinistas —aquí incluyo a los De Guindos y la casta de empleados-directivos—.]

[sudden and sharp]

 

[sudden and sharp]

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