Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[saturno]

Índice de precios de los alimentos de la FAO
https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/es/

   
Fecha de publicación: 07/04/2023

» El índice de precios de los alimentos de la FAO* se situó en un promedio de 126,9 puntos en marzo de 2023, esto es, 2,8 puntos (un 2,1 %) menos que en febrero, disminuyendo así por 12.º mes consecutivo tras alcanzar su nivel máximo hace un año.
En los últimos 12 meses, desde marzo de 2022, el índice ha caído hasta 32,8 puntos (un 20,5 %).
La disminución del índice en marzo obedeció a un descenso de los índices de precios de los cereales, los aceites vegetales y los productos lácteos, mientras que aumentaron los del azúcar y la carne.



 

[senslev]

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1646132525394173956?s=20

Overall US CPI moved down to 5.0% in March, the 9th consecutive decline in the YoY rate of inflation and the lowest level since May 2021.

US Core CPI (ex-Food/Energy) moved up to 5.6% YoY, driven in large part by the continued rise in shelter CPI (+8.2% YoY, highest since '82).

Food, shelter and energy services to the moon.

[saturno]

No hablamos de lo mismo. Estás explicando cómo funciona la función. Te digo que no puedes alternar el eje vertical (ordenada) y horizontal (abcisa) sin anular la "ley" económica. Y el maestro (no le había leido mientras me puse a contestar) va en la misma idea.

También, cuando un trabajo se evidencia como de rendimientos decrecientes, lo racional es trabajar en ello lo justo (hacer el vago no sólo no perjudica, sino que evita derrochar esfuerzos. Les dejo a ustedes que piensen los ejemplos oportunos...  ), pero también señalar que un trabajo de rendimientos decrecientes, puede convertirse en uno de rendimientos crecientes, pero eso requiere dejar de hacer lo de la burra cuando llega al final de la linde, sino que típicamente depende de un cambio tecnológico (no basta con "cambios organizativos", o volvemos a la burra y la linde).

¿Ha quedado más claro??

A mi escala, creo que mi post está bien razonado

Entiendo que no, porque el rendimiento que realmente explicas es el de f(C) = T -- rendimiento marginal de la Cosa producida -- y cuando _el eje horizontal T_ se incrementa a cierto nivel T, lo que dice  _la curva f(C)_ es que deja de ser rentable producir C x T. Vamos, que no puedes cambiar los ejes y alternar arbitrariamente el eje horizontal y el eje vertical sin alterar el significado de la curva resultante de C x T.

En cambio, y tú reproduces la misma idea; Manu afirma que cuando _un supuesto eje horizontal C_ se incremente hacia la derecha, habría _una supuesta curva f(T)_ que deja de ser rentable sobre el plano T x C. Pero no ha dicho nada, A lo sumo que no vale la pena  trabajar o que faltan los planos negativos, donde  pagas por trabajar. Pero es que implícitamente, dice también que la curva de f(T) decrece y crece a la vez en el plano, porque habría trabajos crecientes Y trabajos decrecientes. Una curva cuántica, une vue de l'esprit, Lo cual  significa que la curva f(T) ¡NO merece el nombre de ley! (o no en el plano cartesiano), mientras que en el caso anterior de la curva f(C) si se la puede definir así [1]

Modestamente, me parece que es de cajón: no puedes atribuirle ninguna realidad a una formalización matemática (vue de l'esprit). La ley de rendimientos decrecientes es una ley cuando trata de la producción (de cosas). Es una ley porque interpreta números reales (C=unidades fabricadas en ordenadas verticales, T=costes de factores en abcisas horizontales). Pero si de pronto alteras los ejes vertical/horizontal pones las cantidades fabricadas en el eje horizontal y proyectas el plano sobre la renta (V=rendimiento del salario) o el gasto (V=rendimiento de la inversión), obtienes otra cosa distinta. Y la formalización deja de ser ninguna ley, ni siquiera se traduce a números (al menos no en un plano cartesiano, quizás estadísticamente sea posible, por ahi va la pretensión de la IA).

Aprovecho para pedir a Wanderer, Asustadísimos o cualquier matemático financiero que nos traigan links para ayudar a entender vuestra jerga de segundas derivadas, para gente de a pie.


EDIT: encima me equivoco en H=abcisas/V=ordenadas. Corregido.

[sudden and sharp]

---
[ Haya paz en el mundo... ]

[Derby]

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Consumer Price Index Summary

(...)The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase. This more than offset a decline in the energy index, which decreased 3.5 percent over the month as all major energy component indexes declined. The food index was unchanged in March with the food at home index falling 0.3 percent.

[Derby]

https://www.businessinsider.com/once-ironclad-apartments-buildings-could-now-see-defaults-2023-4

Landlords who bought thousands of apartments are facing a reckoning

*Investors showed outsize interest in apartment buildings earlier in the pandemic.
*Now distress looms as rents have stalled and expenses have grown.
*The fallout has already begun in downtown Los Angeles.

When Laguna Point Properties spent a little more than $400 million on five apartment buildings near Skid Row in downtown Los Angeles last April, an executive at the firm boasted that "the timing could not be better."

Rents and occupancy rates were rising, interest rates remained relatively low, and rental-property prices were climbing with no sign of letting up during a surge in housing demand.

The 1,037-unit acquisition was part of a record-breaking inflow of investment into US apartment properties, which, along with warehouses, were the hottest segments of the commercial real estate market as it emerged from the pandemic. The deal and thousands of others like it were made possible by a booming market for cheap debt that allowed landlords to buy and fix rental buildings and then quickly sell or refinance them for a profit.

But Laguna Point's expectation of a lucrative exit was dashed by a starker reality.

In March, the firm representing the bondholders that own the $328.8 million securitized mortgage tied to the five properties said Laguna Point stopped making payments on the loan in January because of rent-collection "challenges," a report provided by the mortgage-tracking company Cred iQ said.

Not long after that, the portfolio hit the auction block. A report published in early April indicated it was sold for an undisclosed price. Laguna Point did not respond to a request for comment. Marc McDevitt, a senior managing director at Cred iQ, said it was possible Laguna Point had lost some, or even all, of its investment in the deal.

"It doesn't look good," McDevitt said.

The situation provides a glaring example of the budding distress tied to apartment properties, which investors have widely seen as an ironclad segment of the commercial real-estate market, especially compared with shaky assets such as office buildings.

While offices have been going through a paradigmatic shift as more workers do their jobs remotely, apartment buildings have experienced robust demand from tenants. But fault lines have emerged for investors who paid top dollar for assets that depended on substantial rent increases and persistent low interest rates to achieve profitability.

Those kinds of optimistic projections became increasingly necessary in the booming markets of 2021 and 2022, when investors grew voracious for apartment-building acquisitions, driving up competition and prices. In those years, investors purchased $355.5 billion and $299.2 billion worth of apartment buildings, according to MSCI — unprecedented sums that far surpassed the previous $194 billion record of multifamily sales in 2019.

Now buyers like Laguna Point have found that some of those assets can't generate the rental income necessary to justify the prices paid during that frothy spending spree, opening a new area of distress in the commercial-property market. The financing Laguna Point secured on its portfolio in downtown Los Angeles assumed the buildings' net operating income would grow by nearly 45% by the time of the loan's final maturity in 2027, a DBRS Morningstar bond report said.

"To win a deal in that hypercompetitive market, investors needed to make ambitious predictions how they could grow rents and control expenses," said Will Mathews, a mutlifamily-investment-sales broker at Colliers. "What they've found is that rents have plateaued or have even come down in some markets and expenses have skyrocketed."

The problems could mushroom as more mortgages expire at properties where fix-and-flip strategies have stalled, throwing a growing number into default. The bondholders of a $271 million securitized loan attached to a group of 11 apartment buildings owned by Blackstone in New York, for instance, were recently told it was placed in special servicing, a designation that indicates the investment giant could default on the debt.

According to MSCI, $278 billion worth of loans tied to apartment buildings are set to reach maturity in 2023 and 2024, the largest total among all segments of the commercial-property market.

Signs of stress

Defaults have remained modest so far for multifamily assets, but they've edged up in recent months, growing from 1.56% in January to 1.91% in March, according to the mortgage-tracking firm Trepp. 

Some of the most speculative investment deals — including Laguna's — were done with mortgages shoveled into a riskier part of the securitized-loan market known as commercial-real-estate collateralized loan obligations, or CRE CLOs. These loans generally stretched two or three years, had floating interest that rose sharply as the Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark rate, and featured higher leverage levels that covered a larger portion of an asset's purchase price.

CRE CLO delinquency rates have been low, but observers expect an uptick.

"It's early, but it's going to become a bigger story, especially if interest rates stay high and lending standards are tight," said Alan Todd, the head of commercial-mortgage-backed-securities strategy at BofA Global Research. "Right now the water is in the pot, the heat is on, but we're waiting to see when it comes to a boil."

There are signals of stress. A Trepp analysis found that in Washington DC, for instance, 71.9% of multifamily properties financed with CRE CLOs didn't earn enough rent to cover their debts. Trepp attributed some of the pain in that pool of troubled loans, which totals about $1 billion, to the remote-work policies among federal government offices — the dominant tenant base in the city — which have allowed workers to migrate and work from afar, weakening the local rental market.

Falling property prices have compounded the problems for investors. MSCI estimated in February that apartment-building prices had fallen on average by about 8.7% year over year. In April, Green Street estimated they'd declined by 21% from a year ago.

As these short-term debts come due, they will be difficult to swap with commensurately sized loans today, because of the falling vaues, higher interest rates, and lender caution. That could force landlords to pour in millions of dollars to pay the difference — cash they may not have.

Growing expenses and flat rents

Growing expenses and slackening rental rates present a further setback. 

Colin Apple, a partner at the Salt Lake City-based real estate investment firm Bridge Investment Group, said that his firm had seen rental rates for newly signed leases with tenants in some sun belt markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas shoot up by 20% or more during the pandemic. Some investors came to believe outsized increases could persist for years. Instead, they've moderated. 

"Rents for new leases have now normalized, ranging from 3% to 5% increases in most sun belt markets, with the exception of Phoenix and Las Vegas, which are flat to slightly negative now," Apple said.

While rent growth has begun to stagnate, operating expenses in many markets have continued to jump, eating into the bottom line. In states such as Florida and Texas where storms and other weather events have damaged towns, property-insurance premiums have skyrocketed.

Mathews, the multi-family sales broker with Colliers, said that in cities such as Tampa, casualty insurance has risen dramatically from $600 a unit annually to as much as $3,000.

"That could equate to millions of dollars of value subtracted from your property right there," he said.

Distress equals opportunity

Some investors see a chance to reap profits from the dislocation.

Warren de Haan, the co-CEO of the debt firm Acore Capital, said he's planning to issue $1 billion worth of mezzanine loans — secondary loans subordinate to a property's mortgage — in the next year to apartment buildings in need of cash to refinance.

For instance, if an apartment building has a $50 million mortgage, but can only support a $40 million replacement loan in a refinancing deal, a $10 million mezzanine debt could be used to fill in the difference.

"If a building is cash flowing, but is still ramping up its rents and hasn't yet reached its potential, we want to be able to bridge them to the other side," de Haan said.

But because these loans sit in a riskier position, they pay the lender a higher interest rate and could cost the landlords dearly. De Haan, for instance, said he would charge between 13% and 15% for mezzanine debt he issues, more than double the cost of senior commercial property debt today.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/sninobecerra/status/1645797695532195841

https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2023-04-11/bob-sternfels-mckinsey-el-mundo-va-hacia-la-diversificacion-comercial-no-a-un-desacoplamiento.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-in-talks-for-compromise-on-poor-country-debt-9b92b1a3?st=h1zraptv8bs4oe2

China in Talks for Compromise on Poor Country Debt

If agreed, plan could see Beijing drop demand for World Bank and other multilateral lenders to take losses

China is negotiating a compromise plan with other major creditors that could help break a logjam in multibillion-dollar debt-relief talks for struggling developing nations, people familiar with the talks said.

Beijing has been pushing for multilateral lenders such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to join it in taking losses in any debt-restructuring deals, these people said. They said the new plan, if agreed, could see China drop this demand in return for big multilateral lenders and regional partners such as the Asian Development Bank and African Development Bank making more explicit commitments to provide fresh low-cost financing, including grants, to countries whose debt is being restructured.

It could help break an impasse that has held up an agreement by China and other government creditors to restructure the debts of Zambia and serve as a model for multibillion-dollar debt-relief deals for other developing countries in financial distress, the people said. Negotiations could then move on to the details of Zambia’s debt restructuring, such as extending repayment deadlines and lowering interest rates. China continues to oppose taking losses on the face value of its loans, people close to Beijing’s decision making said.

Economic policy makers from around the world will discuss the debt plan during the biannual gatherings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington this week. (...)

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/04/12/6435ab67e5fdea602a8b45ab.html

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/04/11/6435b2fde5fdea25038b45c6.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/declaracion-renta/2023/04/11/643531c7e5fdeaa90b8b464a.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-12/us-core-cpi-rises-firmly-keeping-may-fed-rate-hike-in-play

US Core Inflation Slows Only a Bit, Keeping Fed on Track to Hike

(...) “A strong disinflationary push is expected from shelter over the summer. Even so, given ongoing strength in the labor market and the OPEC+ cuts — as well as pressure from labor-intensive services industries — we expect the FOMC to hike rates by another 25 basis points when it meets next month.” — Jonathan Church and Stuart Paul, economists

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-12/ecb-s-guindos-says-underlying-inflation-is-sticker-than-expected

ECB’s Guindos Says Underlying Inflation Is Sticker Than Expected

Core inflation pressures are more persistent than anticipated, according to European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos.

The measure of consumer-price growth that excludes energy and food — and is currently the key guide for ECB interest-rate setters — will probably remain elevated, Guindos told an event in Madrid.

“Underlying inflation is proving to be much stickier,” he said Wednesday, reiterating the ECB’s commitment to bring the main gauge of price gains back to the 2% target.

While economists and investors widely expect another increase in the ECB’s deposit rate at the next policy meeting, in May, several officials have said the cycle of monetary tightening is nearing its conclusion.(...)

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230412/page/19/textview

El 'leasing' mueve un 51% más hasta febrero

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jpmorgan-managing-directors-asked-to-work-from-office-five-days-a-week--memo-3053737

JPMorgan asks senior bankers to return to office for five days a week - memo

(Reuters) -JPMorgan Chase & Co asked its managing directors to work from the office for five days a week, the largest U.S. bank said in a memo.

"Our leaders play a critical role in reinforcing our culture and running our businesses," the bank's operating committee wrote in the memo seen by Reuters on Wednesday.

"They have to be visible on the floor, they must meet with clients, they need to teach and advise, and they should always be accessible for immediate feedback and impromptu meetings."

CEO Jamie Dimon, along with Wall Street counterparts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), has been a strong advocate of in-office work. He has also expressed concern about the downsides of long-term remote work.

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) reminded staff on hybrid schedules that they were required to be in the office at least three days a week.

"There are a number of employees who aren’t meeting their in-office attendance expectations, and that must change," the bank said. Managers may include attendance as part of performance reviews and could take "corrective action" if requirements were not being met.

The company emphasized that employees should account for their time out of the office for sick days, vacation or business travel. It plans to roll out more automated attendance tracking to manage work schedules, real estate and security.

"Everyone should be able to work five days a week in the office," the bank said.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/fondos/2023/04/12/6435e699e5fdea6a218b45b0.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230412/page/18/textview

La Junta de Riesgo Sistémico insta a vigilar posibles contagios desde las 'criptos'

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/2023/04/11/64352814468aebca228b4632.html

Saludos.