Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/euribor/2023/06/16/648c3bcfe5fdeaca438b4606.html

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/2023/06/17/648cc7aae5fdea4b108b45d5.html

Saludos.

[asustadísimos]

[LOS CUATRO ESCENARIOS ESPAÑOLES, HOY DOMINGO 18/06/2023.—

Sí o sí viene a Occidente el 'bonito 2024', la llegada a la economía real del endurecimiento monetario —vid. Informe Anual 2022, del Banco España, págs. 157 y 172 del pdf—.

España, porque es sistémica, es mantenida por sus acreedores hasta nueva orden en modo 'motoeconomimami' —un tanto forzado, pero o-fi-cial para el FMI, por cierto, con una Balanza de Pagos asombrosa, una deuda pública baratita de honrar y no tan estridente para lo que se lleva en esta época tardopopularcapitalista y la banca exitosamente desaguada de basura inmobiliaria—:

Motoeconomimami
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EslzthDFm2w

En modo motoeconomimami no puede razonablemente perpetrarse ningún zapatero, ni en formato «Sánchez, Sáanchez, Sáaanchez» ni en formato «herencia, hereencia, hereeencia». Se convierten en añagazas extemporáneas que se vuelven contra el que las intenta: «—¿Bailas? —No. —Entonces, de follar ni hablamos. —Que te den».

Además, aunque se trate del ticket 'gallego & vestal', no son lo mismo:
— un partido virgen y un Registrador de la Propiedad y una Abogada del Estado, con condesa mosca cojonera madrileña; y
— un partido 'sotodelrealizado' y un técnico de administracioncita pública regional y una letrada de provincias, con atea revoloteando en su escoba, y falange de sargentos chusqueros porra en ristre, trufados de socialistones y comunistones.

En el otro lado tenemos al presidente de la Internacional Socialista —puesto ahí por el poderoso Canciller de Europa—. Maldita la gracia que le hace trabajar de gestor de este 2024 programado para ser más bonito que un 'oú' —que dicen en Andalucía—, pudiendo cobrar el triple o más en Londres, mientras mejora su sonido 'schwa' y deja de dar el cante en palabras tan 'de clase' como las del 'ou': 'go', 'home', 'don't', 'ladrillou' —se me va la 'oulla', perdonad—.

Volviendo a mis cabales, tal y como están hoy las cosas:

Escenario A.— PSOE
Escenario B.— PPox

Escenario AB.— Barcelona
Escenario BA.— Rub-al-Kaabaísmo

En homenaje a nuestro amigo, ahora youtuber, 'vamos a considerar como hipótesis más probable' la AB.

Finalmente, qué estúpido es que la brunete mediática del «Sánchez, Sáanchez, Sáaanchez» se regodee con el hundimiento del chupa-votos del tal Sánchez. Es tan necio e hipócrita como decirle al propietariado que la ley de vivienda le perjudica porque va a encarecerle los alquileres que exprime o que puede exprimir, lo que justifica el potosí que les pide a los desgraciados o sinvergüenzas a cambio de su 'himbersión'.]

[Cadavre Exquis]

Negocios TV | Claves del día: Tsunami inmobiliario, la crisis de deuda de Ray Dalio y crece el riesgo en Zaporiyia

Negocios TV | Claves del día: Tsunami inmobiliario, la crisis de deuda de Ray Dalio y crece el riesgo en Zaporiyia [00:01:41]

Negocios TV | Claves del día: Tsunami inmobiliario, la crisis de deuda de Ray Dalio y crece el riesgo en Zaporiyia [00:06:11]

Negocios TV | Claves del día: Tsunami inmobiliario, la crisis de deuda de Ray Dalio y crece el riesgo en Zaporiyia [00:09:31]

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/ElHombreMalo/status/1669297183726743553

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Partiendo del catastro puedes tener toda la información relacionada del inmueble que quieras, te formas la mega base de datos inmobiliaria, y luego pues con el big data tienes toda la información que quieras, para aplicar las medidas que quieras y con poco margen de error.

¿Algo así?

El parque inmobiliario de San Sebastián ha crecido un 43,3% en las tres últimas décadas
El tamaño medio de los pisos es de 85,4 metros y la edad media de los edificios se sitúa en los 50,3 años

Jorge F. Mendiola | San Sebastián | Martes, 13 de junio 2023

El número total de viviendas en San Sebastián asciende a 93.946, con un incremento del 43,3% (28.629) desde 1991. La evolución en el conjunto de Gipuzkoa durante estas tres décadas ha sido de un 43,16% y en Euskadi, de un 38,75%, según los datos recogidos en el análisis previo para la revisión del Plan General de Ordenación Urbana que ayer se presentó en sesión abierta a la ciudadanía celebrada en el Salón de Plenos del Ayuntamiento.

El ritmo de construcción en los últimos 20 años ha sido de 862 pisos de media anual, si bien esta expansión no ha sido homogénea a lo largo del tiempo. Por ejemplo, antes del estallido de la burbuja inmobiliaria (2001-2008) se cuantifica una media de 7,97 nuevas viviendas por cada 1.000 habitantes, mientras que con posterioridad este indicador desciende de forma brusca hasta situarse en las 3,45 actuales. La construcción de vivienda protegida, por su parte, pasó de las 7,99 unidades por cada 1.000 habitantes de 2012 ca las 1,84 de 2021.

Las viviendas principales del municipio son 78.242, que representan el 83,3% del parque residencial, con un 16,6% de pisos desocupados y segundas viviendas (15.576). Respecto a la tipología y su ocupación, los datos más significativos que se extraen del documento de diagnóstico de la situación inmobiliaria de la ciudad apuntan que el barrio menos ocupado es el Centro (74%) y el más ocupado, el eje Miracruz-Bidebieta (93%), según las estadísticas que maneja Eustat.

La ocupación media de los pisos se sitúa en 2,4 habitantes, aunque existe un porcentaje de pisos ocupados por una sola persona «muy alto» en comparación con el resto de territorios del País Vasco (31% del total). El de dos personas es similar, alrededor del 30%. Esta situación denota, cuanto menos, una «infrautilización» del parque residencial donostiarra, explican los autores del documento básico.

Bloques de 11 a 40 viviendas

El edificio tipo en San Sebastián lo constituyen unidades de 11 a 40 viviendas. El 60% de la oferta inmobiliaria se organiza en estos módulos de densidad. Los barrios más densos son Amara Berri (25 viviendas por edificio) y Gros y Loiola (17). Los que menos densidad presentan son Zubieta y Miramon-Zorroaga, con una vivienda por edificio, y Añorga, con dos.

El tamaño medio de los pisos es de 85,4 metros cuadrados, algo por debajo de la media de Gipuzkoa (87 metros cuadrados) y por debajo también de la media vasca (87,3 metros cuadrados). La antigüedad media del parque residencial se sitúa en 50,3 años.

El régimen mayoritario de tenencia es la vivienda en propiedad con un 78,3%. El alquiler, aunque «escaso», tiene un porcentaje «significativo» de un 14,5%. Con respecto a la vivienda protegida, en la actualidad solo un 8,6% corresponde a este régimen. Los barrios con mayor proporción de vivienda de protección pública son Zubieta (34,1%), Intxaurrondo (33,5%) e Ibaeta (21,6%). Los que menos, Gros y Miramon-Zorroaga con un 0%, el Centro con un 0,8% y Loiola con un 1%.

Saludos.

[asustadísimos]

[Cerramos paréntesis con la política española. Ya está todo el bacalao vendido.]

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12327888/06/23/un-generoso-sistema-de-pensiones.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12329680/06/23/los-pensionistas-reciben-un-375-mas-de-lo-que-cotizan-en-su-carrera-laboral.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12326713/06/23/el-gasto-en-mayores-alcanza-ya-el-82-del-total-de-la-proteccion-social.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230619/page/27/textview

Bruselas alerta de la falta de trabajadores en España y la UE

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12327675/06/23/los-tres-errores-del-imv-mal-diseno-opacidad-y-castigo-al-empleo-.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12329568/06/23/acciona-aedas-y-pryconsa-toman-la-delantera-en-madrid-nuevo-norte.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/industria/noticias/12329802/06/23/la-inflacion-es-todavia-la-principal-preocupacion-de-la-industria-para-el-proximo-ano.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12326571/06/23/navarra-y-cataluna-es-donde-mas-ha-crecido-la-pobreza-desde-2008.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://revistas.eleconomista.es/agro/2023/junio/la-sequia-llevara-la-importacion-de-cereales-a-cotas-historicas-AA14365720

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

'Plan To Save Downtown San Francisco From Doom Loop Approved by Lawmakers'
Posted by EditorDavid on Sunday June 18, 2023 @07:09PM from the open-up-your-golden-gates dept.

An anonymous reader shared this report from the nonprofit journalism site, the San Francisco Standard:

The San Francisco Board of Supervisors on Tuesday approved legislation that aims to shore up the city's beleaguered Downtown by filling empty storefronts and expediting the conversion of underused office buildings into housing. The bill is a major component of Mayor London Breed's recovery agenda. Co-sponsored by Board President Aaron Peskin, it amends the city's planning code to expand residential uses and Downtown office conversions. It also streamlines the review of certain projects, among other changes...

Even with speedier project approvals, converting San Francisco office buildings to housing remains a costly endeavor; few developers have explored the option to date. At an April 3 hearing of the board's Land Use Committee, lawmakers outlined the need for multiple reforms to make conversions economically feasible; Supervisor Dean Preston voiced concerns that even those reforms would not accommodate low-income housing. Many say San Francisco's Downtown is currently caught in a "doom loop" driven by economic knock-on effects of the pandemic, including an office vacancy rate approaching 30% and trophy office towers changing hands at deep discounts...

The bill passed Tuesday is one of several legislative efforts to aid Downtown and the city's overall economy. Initiatives have included legislation to delay tax increases for retail, food service and other businesses hit hard by the pandemic, an "Office Attraction Tax Credit" for new companies opening in the city and a program called "Vacant to Vibrant," which provides grants to businesses which open "pop-up" shops and art spaces in Downtown's empty storefronts.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/19/business/new-zealand-housing-prices.html

Where Housing Prices Have Crashed and Billions in Wealth Have Vanished

Michael Wilson was hopeful when he put his three-bedroom house up for sale: Over a dozen would-be buyers came to the initial showing.

But about a year later, the property is still for sale. Offer after offer fell through because the prospective buyers were unable to sell their homes.

Welcome to New Zealand, one of the world’s most troubled housing markets. Over the last 18 months, homeowners and investors have lost billions of dollars in wealth after prices that spiked during the Covid pandemic started plunging as mortgage rates also soared.

“If we listed it, say, two months before we originally did, it would have literally sold the next day,” Mr. Wilson said. He and his wife, Jade, might finally have found a buyer for their three-bedroom house in Te Awamutu, a pretty North Island town of 13,000 people. But if they are lucky they will be paid about 15 percent less than they originally sought.

The pandemic’s disruptions to jobs, wages and living conditions caused a yo-yo effect in housing markets in many countries, including Sweden, Britain, Canada and Australia. Few places have experienced as wild a swing as New Zealand, which last week slipped into a recession.

Property in New Zealand has traditionally been expensive and in short supply. Now a combination of even higher prices, poorly constructed housing and the biting effects of interest rate increases has pushed the housing crisis to the top of the agenda, ahead of national elections this year.

During the pandemic, as people took advantage of low mortgage rates and relaxed lending rules, house prices soared almost 50 percent. Since November 2021, after New Zealand’s hawkish central bank embarked on one of the most aggressive rate-tightening cycles in the world to tackle rising inflation, prices have plummeted 17.5 percent, eradicating more than $6 billion in household wealth, according to Statistics New Zealand estimates.

Home sales fell to a record low in the three months through December, and houses now sit on the market for an average of 47 days, with some languishing for many months.

Calls for the government to address the housing shortage grew more urgent in February, when once-in-a-generation storms and flooding damaged thousands of homes on North Island, some irreparably. Then five people died in May in a devastating fire at a hostel in Wellington, the capital, that was inhabited mostly by men without stable housing.

Despite relatively low wages and ample land — New Zealand has a population of five million spread over an area the size of Colorado — a dearth of building, coupled with low borrowing costs, meant that buyers had long been willing to pay for older homes that were poorly built and insulated.

“You’re just lucky to have shelter, rather than worry about the quality of shelter,” said Shamubeel Eaqub, an independent economist in Auckland.

Since the early 1980s, building in New Zealand has not kept pace with population growth, after new restrictive zoning laws and high construction prices limited development.

Property values in New Zealand are also highly susceptible to the rise and fall of interest rates. Unlike U.S. mortgages, which are effectively backed by the government and often set for as long as 30 years, home loans rarely have fixed rates of more than a couple of years. Buyers and homeowners with mortgages now face interest rates of at least 6.5 percent on new loans, up from about 2 percent in 2020.

Housing problems touch virtually every corner of the population, including those on painfully long waiting lists for public housing, underserved renters for whom property ownership seems out of reach and more affluent people who bet big on property and are now seeing their investments fall in value.

Homes are among the least affordable in the world, with a median price of 780,000 New Zealand dollars, or about $480,000, compared with about $407,000 in the United States, according to Redfin.

“You’ve got an enormous number of people who live week to week, paycheck to paycheck, who see an extraordinary amount of their take-home pay eaten up by housing costs,” said Chris Bishop, a member of Parliament for the center-right opposition National Party. “It’s a big driver of inequality and of poverty generally.”

The problem has defied policy fixes by successive governments, and the politicians know that New Zealanders have a lot at stake in the issue. Most New Zealanders own a home, and 57 percent of household wealth consists of land and houses, according to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. That is partly because there is no capital-gains tax, meaning money made on sales is typically not taxed.

“Property investing is the great New Zealand hobby,” said Max Rashbrooke, a researcher on economic inequality in New Zealand.

Adding to the gloom: A rare moment of bipartisanship in housing policy appears to have hit the skids.

In late 2021, New Zealand’s two major political parties co-signed legislation making it easier to construct three-story buildings in the central areas of cities and towns, to avoid extensive suburban sprawl. But Christopher Luxon, the leader of the National Party, said last month that he intended to walk back that commitment and return to a model in which many new houses are built on former farmland at the edges of cities.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said he had called on the opposition to offer changes to the law rather than scrap it.

The two parties’ dueling approaches will be put to the test in the nation’s election in October.

In the meantime, homeowners are doing what they can to manage the troublesome mix of more expensive mortgages and falling prices.

Lisa Lamberton recently sold her home in the city of Whanganui and is moving farther north to be closer to family. She is philosophical about paying higher rates. “When you’re a homeowner, at some point rates aren’t going to be in your favor,” Ms. Lamberton, 42, said. “From my perspective, it was always going to happen.”

James Faber, a warehouse operator and part-time property investor in Palmerston North, spent months trying to sell a property as the market dropped. It ultimately sold for about 360,000 New Zealand dollars, 130,000 less than he had hoped.

Last month, seeking to avoid a similar wait, Mr. Faber, 38, listed another property at auction with a starting price of one New Zealand dollar, against the advice of his lawyer and his property agent. The home eventually went for 400,000 New Zealand dollars — more than other comparable recent sales, he said, but far less than the council estimation of 570,000 New Zealand dollars 18 months earlier.

Even then, he said, he was shocked by the lack of interest in the auction. “It’s a fricking dollar reserve,” he said. “I still can’t believe half the city didn’t come to the open home.”

[Benzino Napaloni]

El Euribor de junio empieza dar pánico



@el malo, ya te decía que la bajada del Euríbor era momentánea y que no podía durar. Hombre de poca fe .

El blog de Calópez es una mina de oro revelando el wishful thinking. Rajan de Lagarde, empiezan a autoconvencerse de que los tipos no pueden durar así mucho tiempo, Lagarde vuelve a repetir que nada de aflojar hasta que la inflación se controle, chasco y cabreo, y vuelta a empezar. Con la hipoteca cada vez más cara y con cada vez menos oxígeno.