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Investors bet UK interest rates will soar to 25-year highFollowing aggressive Bank of England rate rise, swaps markets predict borrowing costs will hit 6.25% in FebruaryInvestors are now betting that UK interest rates will climb as high as 6.25 per cent — the highest level since 1998 — by early next year after the Bank of England this week stepped up its battle with inflation. The BoE on Thursday lifted its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.5 percentage points to 5 per cent — more than the quarter point rate increase anticipated by the majority of market participants — following figures earlier in the week showing inflation remained stuck at 8.7 per cent in May, far above the central bank’s 2 per cent target. (...)
Creo que hay que matizar esa clase de irracionalidad. Podríamos decir que es irracional en su segunda derivada... que viene a ser el enfoque de renta. Porque en primera instancia, "parece" racional: un bien "muerto" que produce dinero mágico por dos vías a veces superpuestas (alquileres y plusvalía, como bien apunta asustadísimos), que sumado al carácter extremadamente transversal y capilar del artefacto (todos, de algún modo, participamos en el juego de suma cero de la burbuja porque todos -salvo los completamente desposeídos- tenemos alguna relación directa o indirecta con un bien inmueble propio, familiar, de usufructo presente o futuro vía herencia, etc) hace que el tema se haya convertido en un mega síndrome de Estocolmo: cada quien completa o cree completar sus rentas productivas o pasivas (si las hay) con las del pisito, ya sea el empleador, el currito, el abuelo, etc.La madeja es casi indesarmable, todo el mundo está implicado en el tema, y nadie puede ver que el "efecto riqueza" está sostenido por el empobrecimiento y la descapitalización sistémica.
José Mota se pone serio y lamenta lo que ve en los restaurantes: "Estoy harto, estamos enfermos"El cómico José Mota se ha puesto serio al señalar algo que ve últimamente en los restaurantes y que, en su opinión, es el síntoma de que algo no va bien en la sociedad.En una entrevista en el programa A la de tres, el humorista ha confesado que está "harto de llegar a los restaurantes y ver parejas que ni se miran cenando"."Cada uno está con su mundo y dices: pero bueno, vamos a ver, estamos enfermos. Algo está ocurriendo también en parte que no está bien y que estamos en un camino extraño, raro", ha advertido antes de vaticinar que él cree que "con el tiempo todo eso volverá a su ser".Mota ha criticado "que vivimos en una sociedad en parte enferma": "Vivimos inmersos en nuestra burbuja propia y eso me da mucho miedo. Cuando digo: el metaverso. Hombre, todo depende. Las redes sociales tienen muchos puntos positivos, que me gustan, y algunos que no me gustan"."Depende del uso que hagamos de ellas. Me da mucha pena cuando, de repente, alguien se ha caído de un edificio porque ha querido hacerse un selfi para colgarlo en su cuenta, llamar la atención para que le siga más gente y tener un puñado de likes y un puñado de likes le cuesta la vida", ha asegurado.Y ha proseguido: "Todo eso me da mucha pena. Algo no está funcionando bien cuando ocurre eso". Mota ha avisado de que ahora "la autoestima la tenemos hipotecada a esos demás que no conocemos en absoluto"."Cuanto más me sigan más importante soy. Pero si es que no hay vida para tantos amigos", ha afirmado antes de dar gracias por tener "un pie en el mundo analógico y otro en el digital". Y ha insistido en que él no quiere "perder ese contacto con la tierra"."Hay una gran lección de la pandemia: somos seres sociales y todo cobra sentido cuando compartimos", ha repetido antes de zanjar: "Todo lo que sea culto a lo individual me gusta menos que compartir con los demás".
[No ha habido plan:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrAaNBb-IzA ]
Si hay una persona a la que se tiene cariño en este blog es a Mario Draghi, el Salvador del Euro y el rescatador de los hipotecados que llevó al Euribor a terreno negativo. Ayer, el exgobernador del BCE dio una charla en la edición de 2023 del World Investment Forum de Amundi.Habló, como no, de la inflación, dejando claro que no hay más remedio que seguir luchando por su reducción. Respecto a la inteligencia artificial, para Draghi va a tener unas consecuencias enormes. “Con una velocidad de desarrollo exponencial, si no se gestiona bien puede tener unos efectos negativos muy complicados de resolver”...
Vladimir Putin has created his own worst nightmareWith the Wagner rebellion, Russian president has provoked the insurrection he has long fearedFifteen months ago, Vladimir Putin’s army was on the outskirts of Kyiv. Now the Russian leader is struggling to maintain control in Moscow.The rebellion of Wagner forces, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, is the final confirmation of how catastrophically wrong the war in Ukraine has gone for Putin. Even if the Russian leader prevails in the immediate battle against Wagner, it is hard to believe that Putin can ultimately survive this kind of humiliation. His prestige, his power, even his life, are now on the line.The historic irony is that Putin’s own actions have brought about the thing he fears most: an insurrection that threatens both the Russian state and his own personal power.Putin’s fear of a “colour revolution” in Russia dates back almost 20 years. Fittingly, its origins lie in Ukraine. The Orange revolution of 2004 — a popular, democratic uprising against a rigged election in Ukraine — sparked a paranoia in the Russian president that has steadily intensified over the years.Ever since, Putin has been haunted by two linked fears. First, that Ukraine would slip irrevocably from Russia’s grasp. Second, that a successful pro-democracy uprising in Kyiv would be a dry run for the same thing in Moscow.His decision to invade Ukraine in 2022 was an effort to finally snuff out both dangers — by installing a pro-Russian, authoritarian government in Kyiv.As a former intelligence operative and conspiracy theorist, Putin was convinced that the origins of any “colour revolution” — whether in Ukraine or Russia — would lie in Washington. His refusal to believe that Ukrainians might have agency or power led to his fatal underestimation of the strength of the country’s resistance to a Russian invasion.As well as underestimating Ukrainian strength, Putin — drunk on the mythology of the Red Army of the 1940s — fatally overestimated Russia’s own military power. The failure of the Russian army opened the door for the Wagner group to enter the war. This gave Prigozhin his own power base and propaganda platform and ultimately allowed him to turn on the Russian state.Putin’s pitch to the Russian people has always been that he rescued the country from the anarchy of the 1990s. But what is happening now is reminiscent of the failed military and hardliner coup against Mikhail Gorbachev in 1991, when Boris Yeltsin mounted a tank outside parliament. At that point, the people of Moscow played a vital role in the unfolding events. The reaction of the Russian population to the Prigozhin uprising will be a crucial — and, as yet, unknown — part of this story.In his own first remarks on the Prigozhin uprising, Putin looked back to an even darker precedent: the alleged “stab in the back” that ended the Russian war effort in 1917 and pitched the country into revolution and civil war. These words were meant to convey firmness of purpose. But they were hardly reassuring.The Wagner insurrection will give hope to opponents of the Putin regime — both inside and outside Russia. For the Ukrainian military, whose counter-offensive has failed to break through, this looks like a historic opportunity. If Russia’s forces turn on each other, or are pulled back from the frontline to defend Putin, they could fold in eastern Ukraine.Political prisoners in Russia, such as Alexei Navalny or Vladimir Kara-Murza, must also have a new sense of hope and opportunity. They, too, may play a part over the coming months.Prigozhin, of course, is no liberal. His rhetoric is stridently nationalist and imperialist. The Wagner forces have a well-earned reputation for brutality. But Prigozhin — like Putin — has now unleashed forces that he will struggle to control.
Hunt aims to channel more pension investments into UK companiesChancellor to use keynote speech to outline how British retirement funds could put more money into riskier assetsChancellor Jeremy Hunt will use his Mansion House speech next month to outline wide-ranging plans for channelling UK pension investments worth billions of pounds into fast-growing British companies as he seeks to boost economic growth.Options to be set out in several government consultations include regulatory changes to encourage UK pension funds to invest more in riskier but potentially high-growth British assets, including early-stage companies, and to drive further consolidation of the country’s highly fragmented pensions market, said Whitehall insiders. They added Hunt was “closely examining” a proposal by the Tony Blair Institute, a consultancy, to pool tens of thousands of public and private sector pension schemes into “GB superfunds” that would invest in UK start-ups, infrastructure and other companies.With Britain struggling with persistently high inflation, Hunt wants to map out reforms to put the country on a faster growth track.The Whitehall insiders said the chancellor would use his Mansion House speech to City of London grandees in July to outline proposals aimed at diversifying the range of investments held by UK pension schemes managing about £3tn in assets, with British funds seen as too risk averse compared to international peers.The final shape of Hunt’s plans — which will cover defined benefit, defined contribution and local government pension schemes with tens of millions of members — is due to be set out in his Autumn Statement.Hunt is not proposing to mandate pension fund trustees on where they should invest their money.Instead Hunt will frame his reforms as an attempt to ensure that UK pensioners can benefit from the higher returns available from investing in riskier assets, including start-ups, infrastructure and private equity — an approach taken by large Canadian and Australian retirement schemes.The Treasury said: “As the chancellor said at the Budget, we have the opportunity to boost returns for British pensioners by increasing investment in the UK’s highest growth sectors.“This will also unlock billions for our most cutting-edge businesses and ensure they can access the finance they need to scale up and list in the UK.”Hunt’s plans come amid intensifying concern that British companies are increasingly falling into foreign ownership, in part due to a lack of investment by UK pension funds. Some high-profile businesses, including Cambridge-based chip designer Arm, have shunned a listing on the London Stock Exchange in favour of New York. Since 2008, the proportion of UK equities held by defined benefit funds — which promise savers a secure pension based on salary and length of service — has fallen from about 50 per cent to less than 10 per cent. Over the same period, the proportion held in bonds has climbed from one-third to more than 70 per cent.Government officials have in recent weeks examined proposals that would enable employers with defined benefit schemes to more easily access any surplus accumulated in the retirement funds through investing in riskier assets such as start-ups and infrastructure focused on the green transition.Any surplus in the funds could be used by employers to invest in their businesses, or to boost pension payments.“We believe that current regulations have led to a situation where many defined benefit schemes are forced into excessively low-risk, low-return investment strategies,” said Sir Steve Webb, a former pensions minister who has put forward the surplus proposal to the Treasury.Hunt is also examining measures to stimulate investment by defined contribution pension schemes — which do not provide promises to savers on the level of retirement benefits — in private equity and venture capital.The government consultations are not expected to include proposed changes to accounting rules that have been blamed for defined benefit schemes shifting out of equities and into bonds.“There have been some very radical proposals by various think-tanks on pension scheme consolidation and risk-taking in recent weeks,” said Nigel Peaple, director of policy and advocacy with the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association, a trade body that represents workplace pension funds serving 30mn savers.“Many of these have not taken into account the realities of pension saving or the operational aspects of what is achievable. So if the government is planning to do a consultation exercise that would be very welcome.”
Hunt to unveil pension reforms next monthChancellor expected to outline the plans during his Mansion House speechJeremy Hunt is poised to reveal broad plans to overhaul the UK’s pensions regime to unlock billions of pounds of investment into high growth British companies.The Chancellor is expected to outline the highly anticipated pension reforms at the annual Mansion House speech in the City of London next month, the Financial Times reported.The proposals include new rules to encourage UK pension schemes to invest in lucrative, but potentially riskier British assets, such as equities, early stage companies and infrastructure.The announcement is also expected to contain proposals to consolidate the fragmented UK pensions regime, following the likes of Australia and Canada.Mr Hunt is said to be “closely examining” calls from the Tony Blair Institute to merge thousands of defined benefit pension schemes to create super funds able to invest hundreds of billions.The final version of his plans will be set out in his Autumn Statement later this year.It comes as Mr Hunt faces mounting pressure to overhaul the pensions industry amid criticism over-cautious funds are costing retirees thousands of pounds by not taking enough risk.The Chancellor also hopes that investment from Britain’s £4.6 trillion retirement industry will help accelerate economic growth as the country faces soaring inflation.While his reforms are designed to give savers more choices over their investments, the Chancellor is not proposing to control what investments pension funds make.The Treasury said: “We have the opportunity to boost returns for British pensioners by increasing investment in the UK’s highest growth sectors. This will also unlock billions for our most cutting-edge businesses and ensure they can access the finance they need to scale up and list in the UK.”
Erdogan expresa su apoyo a Putin frente a la rebelión de WagnerEl presidente turco, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ha mantenido este sábado una conversación telefónica con su homólogo ruso, Vladimir Putin, a quien ha trasladado su respaldo ante la rebelión del grupo de mercenarios rusos Wagner.Leer más: https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-erdogan-expresa-apoyo-putin-frente-rebelion-wagner-20230624153532.html(c) 2023 Europa Press. Está expresamente prohibida la redistribución y la redifusión de este contenido sin su previo y expreso consentimiento.
Energy Change Sweeps the North SeaThe offshore wind industry continues to grow as nations look to change Europe’s oil and gas hub into a major source of renewable energy.The North Sea has long been host to some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes and hundreds of rigs for producing oil and natural gas. Now, if European leaders have their way, this shallow and often turbulent stretch of water will, in the coming years, see what could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars worth of investment aimed at reducing carbon emissions and further shrinking imports of fossil fuels from Russia.At a summit held in Ostend, a Belgian port, in April, the leaders of nine European governments pledged to work together to roughly quadruple the already substantial amount of offshore wind generation capacity in the North Sea and nearby waters by 2030 and to increase it by about tenfold by 2050.Significantly, the meeting, attended by Ursula von der Leyen, the European Union president, included Britain, which recently went through a rancorous divorce from the bloc, and Norway, which is also not an E.U. member. The offshore areas around these two countries have the greatest potential for wind investment.The aim of including all of these countries was “to give the perspective of making the North Sea the largest green energy plant in the world by combining all those coastlines,” said Alexander De Croo, the prime minister of Belgium, in an interview.Mr. De Croo, whose government organized the meeting, said it was vital for Britain, which is a global leader in offshore wind, to be on board despite Brexit, its separation from the European Union. “Geographically, they are not going to move,” he said. “On many things they will remain a very, very important partner,” he added.Seven E.U. members participated in the meeting including Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and France, which have North Sea coastlines; Ireland, which is just a short sail from the British mainland; and Luxembourg, which Mr. De Croo described as a “virtual North Sea country.”What’s driving the push for more offshore wind is a combination of growing concerns about climate change and a more recent determination to achieve energy independence from Russia, which has long been the key supplier of oil and natural gas to Europe.(...)