PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2023

[puede ser]

(...)
La burbuja ha terminado.
(...)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bpma-t4fGY

Algo se llenó
Somethin' filled up

Mi corazón sin nada
My heart with nothin'

Alguien me dijo que no llorara
Someone told me not to cry
Ahora que soy mayor
Now that I'm older

mi corazon esta mas frio
My heart's colder

Y puedo ver que es mentira
And I can see that it's a lie
Niños, despierten
Children, wake up

Mantenga su error
Hold your mistake up

Antes de que conviertan el verano en polvo
Before they turn the summer into dust
Si los niños no crecen
If the children don't grow up

Nuestros cuerpos se hacen más grandes pero nuestros corazones se destrozan
Our bodies get bigger but our hearts get torn up

Somos sólo un millón de pequeños dioses que causan tormentas de lluvia
We're just a million little god's causin' rain storms

convirtiendo todo lo bueno en óxido
Turnin' every good thing to rust

Supongo que tendremos que adaptarnos.
I guess we'll just have to adjust
Con mis relámpagos brillando
With my lightnin' bolts a-glowin

Puedo ver dónde voy a estar
I can see where I am goin' to be

Cuando el segador alcanza y toca mi mano
When the reaper he reaches and touches my hand
Con mis relámpagos brillando
With my lightnin' bolts a-glowin'

Puedo ver a dónde voy
I can see where I am goin'

Con mis relámpagos brillando
With my lightnin' bolts a-glowin'

Puedo ver dónde voy, voy
I can see where I am go, goin'
Será mejor que mires abajo
You better look out below

Salud!, Santé!

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie0EJPcaeSQ
Lo mismo pero en un apartamento  ]

[asustadísimos]

[Mañana es el último 'round' de debates antes de que el día de San Jerónimo suspenda pagos presupuestarios el Gobierno federal de EEUU por falta de acuerdo parlamentario. Pase lo que pase, den por hecho el fin de los días de vino y rosas en dos materias:
— deuda pública y
— Ucrania.
El sistema capitalista es brutal. Hecho el negocio, santas pascuas.

La situación en EEUU es 'requetecatacrackista' a más no poder. La última es que el domingo, día anterior a nuestro lunes-de-inflexión, vence el programa de alivio por la pandemia de cóvid en materia de suspensión, que no condonación, de la devolución de préstamos estudiantiles; el Departamento de Educación ya ha notificado a los deudores el importe recalculado de sus pagos pendientes; la media es ¡¡¡350 dólares mensuales!!! y afecta a ¡¡¡43 millones de deudores!!! —desde luego, qué horror es EEUU, un servidor, que ha vivido allí—; la pausa en los pagos, devengo de intereses incluido, está vigente desde marzo de 2020 y ha sido prorrogada ocho veces; sanseacabó.]


[Todo encaja. Encaja que las izquierdas hayan aceptado que la derecha económica no quiera ver ni en pintura al modelito popularcapitalista ochentero. Y también encaja que las derechas sociológica y política aún no se lo crean, por lo que cunde desconcierto y las contradicciones, y caen en el ridículo. Por cierto, qué buen español el vallisoletano —y cómo se ha deteriorado el santiagués con tanta lengua vernácula—.]


[Ha salido el palabro 'requetecatacrackista', para referirnos a todo aquello que sea procíclico en el tercer estertor del crack de la tercera de las tres llamaradas al final de la tercera de las tres veces —puntocom, subprime y reburbuja— que conforman este gran a la tercera va la vencida que es la mierda de la burbuja popularcapitalista de los 1980, en la que una generación ha consumido financieramente a tres.

Τετρακτύς de שקל

Tetraktys es una palabra igual de difícil de pronunciar. En cuanto a la tetraktys, es decir, ese triángulo equilátero formado con diez puntos ordenados en cuatro filas —uno, dos, tres y cuatro puntos en cada fila— y que lleva inscritos otros nueve triangulitos equiláteros —tres por tres—, un servidor la entiende así:

• Unidad: el todo; la creación, creador incluido

• Desdoblamiento de la Unidad: yin y yan; día y noche; hombre y mujer

Vajra Dorje

• Tríada (en cuanto hay dos, aparece el punto intermedio): cielo, tierra e inframundo; cuerpo y alma, y espíritu; Brahma y Visnú-Shiva; Padre e Hijo, y Espíritu Santo

Varja Dorje doble

• Desdoblamiento del punto intermedio (complejidad del universo): aire, tierra y agua, y fuego; las cuatro estaciones; los cuatro puntos cardinales

• El conjunto constituye la Unidad
1 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 10  . . .  1 + 0 = 1

Parece que no, pero la tetraktys es simbólica de la prospectiva con la que tanto acertamos en este blog.

Otra derivada:
PSOE&PP
PSOE-PP
PSOE-C's-PP
P's-PSOE-PP-Vox]

[asustadísimos]

[Brillante comentario de BENDITALIQUIDEZ...
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2596.msg219943#msg219943
... sobre dos temas importantísimos:

• El 'carry trade' del yen. El día que deje de funcionar, bien por el encarecimiento de los préstamos en yenes, bien porque los activos no financieros en dólares o euros dejen de revalorizarse, que ya estamos en ello, el yen perderá la presión que lo deprecia. Pero el yen no tiene musculatura para compensar el potencial devaluatorio acumulado por la inflación en todo Occidente. Haría falta que China consintiera en la apreciación del yuan, en contra de su ser y estar como imperio comercial —no monetario—, una generosidad que no existe entre Estados, máxime tras Ucrania. Esto es un 'tour de force' solo para el dólar y el euro, nada más que estas dos monedas. La solución es EUR/USD = 1.6000, es decir, se devalúa el imperio anglo, que para eso es el imperio, y nosotros, ajuste a pelo. Esta es la idea.

• La hoja de ruta para incluir la vivienda ocupada por sus propietarios en el IPC Armonizado. Hemos tratado muchas veces el viejo plan que tiene la UE para proceder a ponerle un cinturón de castidad al Pisito monitorizando dentro del IPC la renta inmobiliaria presunta del propietario que usa su vivienda para sí —el IPC es la polar del BCE—. Es una forma indirecta de computar los precios observados de la vivienda porque no hay forma de calcular dicha renta presunta que no sea partiendo del valor de la misma. Reburbujeando no pude hacerse. La iniciativa coordinada Eurostat-BCE, con su plan por fases, encaja con nuestro '2025', como no puede ser de otra manera, toda vez que la reforma del índice tiene que ser posterior a la corrección valorativa de la vivienda. La iniciativa realmente no es tan 'hojarrutera' como parece. A nosotros nos interesa que se trata de toda una declaración de intenciones en el sentido de 'Lo que el viento se llevó': «A Dios ponemos por testigo: ¡jamás volveremos a pasar hambre!».
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K85_oIwM31s
Está todo el mundo hasta la coronilla del Pisito.]

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230930/page/3/textview

Negativo intervencionismo en vivienda

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12468012/09/23/la-baja-demanda-insta-la-guerra-hipotecaria.html#:

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12468064/09/23/la-vivienda-de-obra-nueva-pincha-en-barcelona-con-la-fuga-de-promotores.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12464909/09/23/el-precio-de-la-vivienda-en-palma-supera-los-maximos-de-la-burbuja-y-se-acerca-en-madrid-y-barcelona-.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12464712/09/23/la-coinversion-inmobiliaria-un-valor-anadido-para-seguir-creciendo.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12460901/09/23/alquilar-una-vivienda-por-habitaciones-que-zonas-son-mas-rentables-.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/12468130/09/23/la-banca-incuba-una-guerra-hipotecaria-para-enderezar-la-caida-del-negocio.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12467865/09/23/los-paises-de-la-ue-se-niegan-a-poner-fin-a-sus-ayudas-antiinflacion.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12467973/09/23/los-expertos-coinciden-en-pedir-un-escudo-social-mucho-mas-limitado.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12467731/09/23/la-rebaja-del-iva-energetico-y-de-los-alimentos-resta-1854-millones-en-ingresos-tributarios-hasta-agosto-.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/12468042/09/23/banco-de-espana-eleva-los-colchones-de-capital-a-santander-y-bbva.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12467824/09/23/grupo-lar-se-adjudica-en-subasta-un-edificio-de-oficinas-de-hacienda-por-205-millones-de-euros.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230930/page/49/textview

EEUU se sorprende ahora por convivir con monopolios

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12466760/09/23/la-inflacion-desacelera-en-la-eurozona-hasta-el-43-y-marca-el-minimo-en-casi-dos-anos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12466632/09/23/la-tasa-de-ahorro-de-los-hogares-alcanza-el-20-su-cota-mas-alta-descontando-el-efecto-pandemia.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12374780/07/23/la-deuda-publica-marca-nuevo-record-con-154-billones.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12467116/09/23/mas-de-un-millon-de-espanoles-falto-a-diario-al-trabajo-durante-el-segundo-trimestre.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12466213/09/23/la-sostenibilidad-del-crecimiento-economico-en-espana.html

Saludos.

[saturno]

XGracias

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-september-factory-activity-expands-first-time-six-months-2023-09-30/

China's economy stabilises, factory activity returns to expansion

BEIJING, Sept 30 (Reuters) - China's factory activity expanded for the first time in six months in September, an official survey showed on Saturday, adding to a run of indicators suggesting the world's second-largest economy has begun to bottom out.

The purchasing managers' index (PMI), based on a survey of major manufacturers, rose to 50.2 in September from 49.7, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, edging above the 50-point level demarcating contraction in activity from expansion. The reading beat a forecast of 50.0.

The PMI, the first official statistics for September, adds to signs of stabilisation in the economy, which had sagged after an initial burst of momentum early in the year when China's ultra-restrictive COVID-19 policies were lifted.

Preliminary signs of improvement had emerged in August, with factory output and retail sales growth accelerating while declines of exports and imports narrowed and deflationary pressures eased. Profits at industrial firms posted a surprise 17.2% jump in August, reversing July's 6.7% decline.

"The manufacturing PMI, plus the good industrial profit figures, suggest that the economy is gradually bottoming out," said Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.

China's non-manufacturing PMI, which incorporates sub-indexes for service sector activity and construction, also rose, coming in at 51.7 versus August's 51.0.

The composite PMI, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, climbed to 52.0 in September from 51.3.

Near-term data on the radar of economists include consumer spending for the longest public holiday this year. "Golden Week" kicked off on Friday with the Mid-Autumn Festival, which will be followed by the National Day break through Oct. 6.

Passenger travel by rail on Friday reached 20 million trips, a single-day record, state media reported on Saturday, in a bullish start to what authorities had forecast to be "the most popular Golden Week in history".

PROPERTY RISKS

More stable economic indicators will be welcomed by policymakers as they continue to grapple with a property sector debt crisis that has rattled global markets. The authorities have announced a series of measures to shore up the property market, including cutting mortgage rates, although the sector is far from being out of the woods.

New home prices fell the fastest in 10 months in August and property investment declined for an 18th straight month.

China Evergrande Group (3333.HK), the world's most indebted property developer with more than $300 billion in liabilities, said on Thursday its founder was being investigated over suspected "illegal crimes".

The Asian Development Bank last week trimmed its 2023 economic growth forecast for China to 4.9% from a July forecast of 5.0% due to the weakness in the property sector.

Analysts say more policy support will be needed to ensure China's economy can hit the government's growth target of about 5% this year.

"China's economy stabilised partly driven by the loosening of property sector policies," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management.

"The key issue going forward is whether fiscal policy will become more supportive. I think it will, but timing-wise the change of fiscal policy stance may happen next year instead of this year."

PS: El interés primario que me mueve al participar en el foro es el de no perder contacto con la realidad-real. La única forma que sé de hacerlo es mediante la colaboración con otras personas que a su vez, y con el mismo interés, aportan su punto de vista o visión de la realidad y en un entorno seguro (respetuoso, constructivo, civilizado). Vivimos en la dictadura de las emociones, lo pasajero o fluido, el día a día o las circunstancias... y ello es lo que dificulta sobremanera tener claridad. La MN está a un nivel de supervivencia (económica, emocional, etc), no tiene margen para mucho más. Efectivamente, como dice Asustadísimos, estamos inmersos en un conflicto o serie de conflictos (polycrisis) de gran complejidad.

PS2: Soy miope de casi siempre (miopía de estudiante), pero mi cerebro sabe perfectamente cuando mi visión es lo suficientemente nítida. El decide cuando veo bien y cuando no es así se adapta a la mala visión, pero no se engaña; simplemente me ayuda a hacer el máximo de mis facultades. Hay quien no puede zafarse de la realidad con la misma facilidad que otros.

P3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPPP3BXurHk

Hey, honey, what you trying to say?
As I stand here, don't you walk away
And the world comes tumbling down
Hand in hand in a violent life
Making love on the edge of a knife
And the world comes tumbling down

[Lem]

(Nota: la negrita es del autor)

Where the Housing Bubbles Are

Jeremy Grantham was on The Compound and Friends with Michael and Josh last week talking bubbles

Grantham says real estate is a global bubble and prices should fall 30% or so.

I partially agree and partially disagree with Grantham here.

I continue to believe the U.S. housing market is not in a bubble.

Is the housing market broken in many ways? Yes.

Is affordability as bad as it’s ever been? Also yes.

Does that mean we are in for another housing market crash like we experienced during the Great Financial Crisis? I don’t think so.

Here’s why:

We didn’t binge on adjustable-rate mortgages. One of the biggest reasons the housing market crashed last time is that so many people took out loans with low teaser rates that adjusted higher a few years later.

The use of ARMs is so much lower today:



Most borrowers spent the pandemic years locking in low fixed-rate loans.

Roughly two-thirds of all mortgage borrowers have a rate under 4%. Nearly 40% of homeowners own their home outright with no mortgage.

It’s hard to see forced selling when so many people have affordable housing payments locked down.

Borrowers have far better credit profiles. We’re not reliving The Big Short where strippers could get loans to buy 5 houses and lenders were incentivized to make subprime loans.


There aren’t many loans being made right now but most of them are going to people with excellent credit scores:



In fact, two-thirds of all mortgage loans since 2017 have gone to borrowers with sterling credit scores (760 and up) while just 2.6% have gone to subprime borrowers (620 and below).

From 2003-2007 more than 11% of loans went to subprime borrowers and just 26% to borrowers with the best credit scores.

No more NINJA loans this time around.

We didn’t build enough houses. From 2000-2007 nearly 14 million new homes were built in the United States. Not only were the loans bad but supply began to outstrip demand.

Then the housing bust happened and we only built 9.1 million new homes in the 2010s.

When you combine a lack of housing supply with millennials reaching their prime household formation years, prices were bound to go up.

The pandemic just supercharged this dynamic.

Consumers are in pretty good shape. Households still have the ability to pay their mortgage debt:



It would take severe job losses to bring about a fire sale of houses on the market.

I’m not saying U.S. housing prices can’t or won’t fall but it’s hard to call the current situation a bubble, even with the insane run-up we’ve seen in prices.

So where are the housing bubbles today?

A few weeks ago I compared Canada to the United States to show what an actual insane housing market looks like.

Since I already had the data it made sense to look at some other foreign markets to see how out of whack price gains have been relative to incomes over the past 3+ decades.

These charts show the real (inflation-adjusted) growth in both housing prices and disposable incomes since 1990:



Canada and Australia stand out as the outliers in terms of housing prices growing much faster than incomes. France and the UK are up there too.

The United States, Spain and Germany look relatively tame with prices and incomes growing in tandem for most of this period.

Then you have prices going in the opposite direction in Japan and South Korea but that’s more of a function of the Japanese housing bubble of the 1980s.

Many of these foreign markets are more susceptible to falling prices because higher interest rates will have a much bigger impact on borrowers. In the U.S. we’re used to fixed rate mortgages but lots of developed nations rely heavily on variable mortgage products:



In countries like Canada and Australia, many loans automatically reset rates every 5 years or so. This was a wonderful thing for borrowers when rates were falling. But now that mortgage rates have more than doubled, homeowners are looking at much higher borrowing rates.

The markets are starting to price this in (although we have a long way to go in terms of getting back to more affordable levels).

Since the second quarter of last year, housing prices in Canada are down 20% on a real basis. In Australia, prices are down 10% after accounting for inflation. Prices in France and the UK are down marginally, -5% and -4%, respectively.

I don’t have the ability to predict housing prices. But if you’re looking for a potential bear market in housing, the United States is in much better shape than other nations around the globe.

Prices have grown much faster in Canada, Australia and the UK. And borrowers in those countries are now looking down the barrel of much higher mortgage rates.

If there is a housing bubble it doesn’t appear to be in the United States.

In The Big Short 2, Steve Carell and Ryan Gosling wouldn’t be making trips to Las Vegas and Florida.

They would be paying visits to Toronto, Sydney, Vancouver and ghost towns in China.