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[...] reconócelo, eres un fracasopenoso cabrón, maldito payaso
(...)La cuestión es que nos simplifican las cosas y por eso no se entiende, ¿qué está pasando? pues en mi opinión, algo muy sencillo, que la quema de combustibles fósiles no era el problema, el problema siempre ha sido DEJAR DE QUEMAR COMBUSTIBLES FÓSILES.(...)
Cinco hipótesis para explicar el calentamiento acelerado del 2023 que preocupa a la ciencia1. EL NIÑO Y LA NIÑA (...)2. VOLCÁN HUNGA-TONGA(...)3.VARIABILIDAD NATURAL: (...) fenómeno conocido como AMO (del inglés Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). Este es un mecanismo por el cual la temperatura del Atlántico Norte oscila de forma natural en períodos de varias décadas. Actualmente nos encontramos en el máximo de esta oscilación(...)4. AEROSOLESLos aerosoles son partículas sólidas o líquidas suspendidas en el aire. Pueden ser de origen natural como las cenizas de incendios y erupciones volcánicas o de origen antropogénico. Debido a las actividades humanas, la concentración de algunos aerosoles está aumentando. A su vez, esto está contrarrestando el calentamiento ya que tienen la capacidad de reflejar la radiación solar. Pero algunos aerosoles como los óxidos de azufre son dañinos para el medio ambiente.Desde el 2020, las emisiones de los buques se redujeron por una normativa impuesta por la Organización Marítima Internacional. Aunque nadie duda de las ventajas, muchos expertos plantean que esta reducción está detrás del brusco calentamiento. Para hacernos una idea, el IPCC estima que si no fuese por el aumento del dióxido de azufre, la temperatura global habría aumentado medio grado más desde la época preindustrial.https://twitter.com/Divulgameteo/status/1709289351845155110?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1709289351845155110%7Ctwgr%5Ed1ef0e3bf93804f627412c1160ada6cf3b353755%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lavozdegalicia.es%2Fnoticia%2Fsociedad%2F2023%2F10%2F12%2Fcinco-hipotesis-explican-calentamiento-acelerado-2023-preocupa-ciencia%2F00031697130561994520251.htm5. PUNTOS DE INFLEXIÓNLos puntos de inflexión o tipping points (en inglés) en el sistema climático son umbrales críticos a partir de los cuales el sistema se reorganiza, a menudo de forma abrupta e irreversible. El ejemplo más conocido es el del posible colapso de la circulación meridional de retorno en el Atlántico Norte (AMOC), que depende del balance de temperatura y salinidad entre las aguas del sur y del norte de la cuenca oceánica. Los seres humanos estamos alterando el delicado equilibrio del que depende la corriente al modificar la temperatura y la salinidad de las aguas.La desaparición del hielo en el Ártico y Groenlandia o la fus(...)ión del permafrost en Siberia son otros ejemplos de puntos de inflexión.
Eurosystem proceeds to next phase of digital euro project18 October 2023Governing Council to start digital euro preparation phase following conclusion of two-year investigation phase on design and distribution of a digital euroPreparation phase will lay foundations for a potential digital euro, with work to include finalising rulebook and selecting providers to develop platform and infrastructurePreparation phase will pave way for potential future decision on issuing a digital euroThe Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided today to move to the next phase of the digital euro project: the preparation phase.This decision follows the completion of the investigation phase launched by the Eurosystem in October 2021 to explore possible design and distribution models for a digital euro. Based on the findings from this phase, detailed in a report published today, the ECB has designed a digital euro that would be widely accessible to citizens and businesses through distribution by supervised intermediaries, such as banks.The design envisages the digital euro as a digital form of cash that could be used for all digital payments throughout the euro area. It would be widely accessible, free for basic use and available both online and offline. It would offer the highest level of privacy and allow users to settle payments instantly in central bank money. It could be used from person to person, at the point of sale, in e-commerce and in government transactions. No digital payment instrument offers all these features. The digital euro would fill that gap.The next phase of the digital euro project – the preparation phase – will start on 1 November 2023 and will initially last two years. It will involve finalising the digital euro rulebook and selecting providers that could develop a digital euro platform and infrastructure. It will also include testing and experimentation to develop a digital euro that meets both the Eurosystem’s requirements and user needs, for example in terms of user experience, privacy, financial inclusion and environmental footprint. The ECB will continue to engage with the public and all stakeholders during this phase. After two years, the Governing Council will decide whether to move to the next stage of preparations, to pave the way for the possible future issuance and roll-out of a digital euro.The launch of the preparation phase is not a decision on whether to issue a digital euro. That decision will only be considered by the Governing Council once the European Union’s legislative process has been completed. The ECB will take into account any adjustments to the design of the digital euro that may become necessary as a result of the legislative deliberations.“We need to prepare our currency for the future,” said Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB. “We envisage a digital euro as a digital form of cash that can be used for all digital payments, free of charge, and that meets the highest privacy standards. It would coexist alongside physical cash, which will always be available, leaving no one behind.”The digital euro would make data protection a priority. The Eurosystem would not be able to see users’ personal data or link payment information to individuals. The digital euro would also achieve a cash-like level of privacy for offline payments.The digital euro would promote resilience, competition and innovation in the European payments sector. It would ensure that there is a pan-European payment solution for the euro area under European governance. It would rely on its own infrastructure, thereby strengthening resilience. And it would provide a platform on which European supervised intermediaries could build pan-European services for their customers, increasing efficiency, reducing costs and fostering innovation.“As people increasingly choose to pay digitally, we should be ready to issue a digital euro alongside cash,” said Fabio Panetta, ECB Executive Board member and Chair of the High-Level Task Force on a digital euro. “A digital euro would increase the efficiency of European payments and contribute to Europe’s strategic autonomy.”Digital euro distributionUsers could access digital euro services via their payment service provider’s proprietary app and online interface, or via a digital euro app provided by the Eurosystem. People without access to a bank account or digital devices would also be able to pay with digital euro, for example by using a card provided by a public body such as a post office. Users would also be able to exchange digital euro for cash or vice versa at cash machines.The Eurosystem envisions a digital euro that would be free for basic use for individuals. A compensation model between intermediaries and merchants would ensure that there are incentives for intermediaries to distribute digital euro, as is the case for other electronic payment instruments, and that there are adequate safeguards against excessive service charges for merchants. The Eurosystem would bear its own costs, including those related to scheme management and settlement processing.Transparency and close cooperation with stakeholders remain key pillars of the project. The Eurosystem has benefited greatly from feedback from European decision-makers, market participants and potential users, and will continue to engage actively with a wide range of stakeholders. We will also continue to cooperate closely with EU legislators.For media queries, please contact Silvia Margiocco, tel.: +49 69 1344 6619, or Paula González Escribano, tel.: +49 1512 3815096.NotesProposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on the establishment of the digital euro, European Commission, COM(2023) 369 final, 28 June 2023; and Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on the provision of digital euro services by payment services providers incorporated in Member States whose currency is not the euro and amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1230 of the European Parliament and the Council, COM(2023) 368 final, 28 June 2023.The Eurosystem has established a digital euro scheme Rulebook Development Group to support the drafting of a single set of rules, standards, and procedures for the digital euro. The Group is composed of Eurosystem staff and market representatives who provide input from the financial industry, consumers and merchants.
Centaline’s wily bet on a coveted relaxation of Hong Kong’s property rules lands it in hot waterCentaline Property Agency and its Ricacorp Properties unit are letting homebuyers and sellers walk away from their contracts if some conditions are not metThe memorandum is “inappropriate,” the industry guild said, while a lawyer describes the terms as “vague”One of Hong Kong’s biggest property sales agencies has landed itself in hot water over a wily move to spur transactions, as anticipation runs high for the government to relax its real estate rules.Home prices will almost certainly jump if Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu scraps a set of regulations during his address on October 25. If that happens, buyers and sellers can walk away from their pre-address contracts without penalty, according to a memorandum provided by Centaline Property Agency and its Ricacorp Properties subsidiary, seen by the Post.The Estate Agents Authority (EAA), an industry-run statutory guild for sales agents, was quick to weigh in, calling the unusual hedge by Centaline and Ricacorp “inappropriate.”The memorandum “may lead to legal disputes and cause confusion in the property market,” the EAA said in a statement, adding that its arrangement and terms “may involve evasion of taxes and/or other legal liabilities. The EAA is looking into whether the use of such a memorandum may have breached the EAA’s guidelines and will take follow up actions accordingly.”Centaline, which employs 4,280 agents at 380 branches across Hong Kong, is standing firm. The agency chain’s founder Shih Wing-ching rejected any accusation of tax evasion, saying that his barristers “agreed there is no problem” with the memorandum.“It’s not a hard rule,” he said in an interview with the Post. “It is actually the market condition that [necessitates]” the unorthodox arrangement, he added.The war of words underscores how Hong Kong’s property industry, grappling to regain its footing after the end of a decade-long bull run, is reeling from a 15-per cent slump from its September 2021 peak. Centaline, Ricacorp, Midland Realty and Hong Kong Property Services (Agency) have laid off 3,100 sales agents between them since the beginning of 2023, as transactions shrank last year to a 32-year low.“Property agents want to snatch clients before the [policy] address,” said Chau Kwong-wing, the University of Hong Kong’s Chair Professor of Real Estate and Construction. The market is “now in a stalemate” as many buyers are now waiting for the address for clarity on the direction of home prices, he said.The number of newly approved mortgage, an indicator of demand in the housing market, fell 28.6 per cent last month to 1,438 cases while their value shrank 31.9 per cent to HK$3.72 billion (US$475 million) from August, according to data provided by the mortgage broker mReferral.The industry is lobbying the government to remove the restrictions – dubbed colloquially as “spicy measures” – first put in place in 2009 in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The removal of the measures may stimulate demand, increasing home sales by 5 to 10 per cent, according to an estimate by Victoria Allan, the founder of the property agency Habitat.That is where Centaline’s hedge comes in, taking effect only if relevant conditions are met. If the government keeps a 15-per cent stamp duty unchanged, the agent will destroy the provisional sales and purchase agreement, and return the deposit to the buyer, “unless otherwise agreed by the buyer and seller within three days after the address,” according to the memorandum.The memorandum may cause confusions between the buyers and sellers “if it is not properly drafted with specifications,” said Lilian Chiang, a senior partner and head of the property department at the law firm Deacons.It is “vague and may not truly reflect parties’ intentions,” she said, adding that buyers and sellers must “fully understand the implications,” or “risk litigation when there are disagreements on the conditions after the policy address.”To be sure, the debate may be moot, as few have “dared to” sign on to Centaline’s memorandum after EAA’s warning, Shih said. If a property buyer insists on signing such a memorandum, the agent will communicate with the solicitors of both parties based on the specifics before signing the contract, he said.
Rebelión vecinal contra los pisos turísticos: veto o subida de cuotas para ponerles frenoComunidades de propietarios empiezan a prohibir el uso vacacional de viviendas pese a las dudas jurídicas | Otras apuestan por limitar su actividad, algo que sí permite la ley, cobrándoles un 20% más de comunidadEn Vigo hay ya más de 1.200 pisos turísticos. El bum de este tipo de viviendas ofrece una alternativa habitacional a los visitantes, que pueden elegir entre una gran variedad de opciones a la hora de alojarse. Pero pocas veces se piensa en el efecto que estos alquileres vacacionales tienen en las comunidades de propietarios en las que se ubican. Por ejemplo, la preocupación por la seguridad al entregar las llaves del portal a personas diferentes cada semana o incluso cada día, los ruidos ocasionados por el trasiego de turistas con maletas y el uso excesivo de instalaciones comunitarias. Es por eso que en Vigo está empezando a producirse una auténtica rebelión vecinal para poner freno a los apartamentos vacacionales.Es más, es lo que están haciendo muchas comunidades de propietarios de edificios que acaban de constituirse. Por ejemplo, en la primera junta de vecinos del número 15 de la calle Jacinto Benavente, una de las primeras medidas que se planteó fue prohibir que cualquier vivienda se destinase a uso turístico, una medida que está sujeta a ratificación final. En otros casos ya está aprobada, para lo que es necesario incorporarla a los estatutos de las comunidades tras haber pasado por notario y posteriormente inscribirse en el Registro de la Propiedad.El problema, tal y como apunta la gerente y abogada del Colegio Oficial de Administradores de Fincas de Galicia, Ana Carrión, es que la ley de propiedad horizontal recoge que se puede plantear la limitación de pisos turísticos y el establecimiento de unas condiciones, pero no se refiere a la prohibición. “Es decir, si un propietario que quiere utilizar su piso como turístico denuncia el acuerdo de veto, un juez le puede dar la razón”, asegura la letrada. Pero también existe doctrina favor de la prohibición, por lo que las dudas jurídicas en este ámbito son numerosas. Y obviamente, si un propietario tiene ya un piso turístico y se demuestra que las molestias a los vecinos son elevadas, con destrozos del mobiliario común por ejemplo, la prohibición sí tendría una justificación jurídica total.Por eso, para hacer frente a los alquileres vacacionales, otras comunidades de vecinos apuestan por limitarlos, lo que sí recoge la ley de propiedad horizontal, estableciendo unas condiciones limitantes para los propietarios que quieran destinar sus pisos a tal uso. Entre ellas, por ejemplo, haciéndoles pagar un 20% más de cuota de comunidad y aportar más a los diferentes gastos comunes, además del sometimiento a un régimen interno dentro de la comunidad de vecinos, vías a las que se puede sumar la obligación de suscribir pólizas de seguro de daños para los causados por los inquilinos en elementos comunes o la advertencia directa a los ocupantes de que deben cumplir unas normas.A petición de un comunero o por iniciativa del administrador, se convoca una junta para abordar el asunto. En la votación se fija un quórum de “voto favorable de las tres quintas partes del total de los propietarios que, a su vez, representen las tres quintas partes de las cuotas de participación”, según señala la Ley de Propiedad Horizontal. El acuerdo provisional ha de quedar recogido en un acta que se notifica a los ausentes en la junta con un plazo de 30 días para que se opongan si lo consideran. Superado este tiempo y recogidos los posicionamientos a favor o en contra se emite una nueva acta para comprobar si con los no opuestos se llega a los 3/5 de quórum y luego se envía otra notificación.El acuerdo adoptado respecto a medidas de limitación o condiciones del destino a alquiler vacacional debe inscribirse en el Registro de la Propiedad.El Concello también estudia limitar las viviendas vacacionalesUna de las medidas que “estudia” el Concello en materia de vivienda es “limitar nuevas actuaciones de pisos turísticos”(...)
China activates $6.5 bln swap line with ArgentinaBUENOS AIRES, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Argentina's central bank said on Wednesday that China has cleared a currency swap line totaling a freely accessible $6.5 billion, part of a broader deal the South American country has been using to help it defend the embattled local peso.The agreement with China has helped Argentina increase its depleted foreign currency reserves as it undergoes a major economic crisis, with annual inflation above 130% and central bank dollar reserves hitting negative levels.(...)
Bank of America warned consumers they would be pushed to the ‘point of pain’—and CEO Brian Moynihan says we’ve now reached that pointIt’s a message now echoing in every corner of Wall Street: Consumers have finally run out of steam.It’s also an eventuality Bank of America has predicted since March, when analysts warned that the Fed would push consumers to the “point of pain” in order to tame inflation.And now, according to Bank of America’s CEO, Brian Moynihan, that time has come.Speaking to CNBC’s Squawk on the Street, Moynihan said the way consumers are acting is consistent with a “low growth, low inflation economy,” which the U.S. saw from 2016 to 2019.In a given year, Bank of America customers spend $4 trillion dollars—be it using a debit or credit card, writing a check, confirming a bank transfer, or taking cash out to spend.From 2021 to 2022 that spend grew by 10%, Moynihan said, and began dropping to 9% in the first quarter of 2023.Now that growth figure has dropped to 4.5%, he added, signaling consumers are either too nervous to spend the money they have, or have less in their pandemic-boosted savings accounts to sustain their spending levels.“That is the same of September and October,” Moynihan continued. “That growth rate…is consistent to where we were in ’16, ’17, ’18, ’19, which was a low growth, low inflation economy.”“Consumers’ activity has slowed down…It’s slowed by half, and that means the consumer is being slowed down by the interest rate environment and all the stuff going on.”Lower-income homes are impacted moreMoynihan went on to support an observation made by Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, who said “cracks” are beginning to show in consumer spending, particularly by lower-end consumers.Fraser said that while Citi’s data shows consumer spending is still “good” and is in positive figures, the growth has begun to “come off,” explaining to CNBC that in September numbers, “the softening of the growth in demand, is…evident.”Savings are down for lower-end consumers, Fraser added: “They’re very low at the moment, and I think some of the excess savings from the COVID years are close to depletion.”Moynihan said that Bank of America has found similar trends. He said median-income households have lower account balances and are spending down their pandemic war chests.Higher-income households have similarly moved their money out of checking accounts, but have instead moved their fortunes into investments.“You’re seeing that deterioration of positive balances and consumers in those medium-income households down a little bit,” Moynihan said. “That means they’re spending some money in excess of what they bring in. So that means the economy has slowed down, consistent with a low growth, low inflation economy.”Is the Fed’s plan working?If the so-called YOLO (you only live once) spenders have indeed run dry and the economy is inching back, as Moynihan says, to low growth—then has the Fed’s plan really paid off?The first priority of the Fed was to tackle inflation—which has indeed come down. In September 2023, inflation sat at 3.7%, down from 8.3% a year prior.Economists seem largely satisfied by this effort—though many have warned the most difficult part of bringing inflation down lies ahead.Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen remarked inflation is being “really well behaved,” while Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel believes rates will hold steady in November.In his weekly Wisdom Tree commentary, professor Siegel observed there is still a great deal of economic uncertainty—not least tensions in the Middle East.Despite this, professor Siegel wrote: “We’re poised for a year-end rally in equities and a good year for 2024.”
China’s Country Garden Was Given a Second Chance to Make a Bond Payment. It Failed.The country’s years long property slowdown has claimed another victimChinese property giant Country Garden has missed a final deadline to pay interest on a dollar bond, capping a remarkable fall from grace for a company that was once considered among the safest developers in the country. The company hasn’t made a $15.4 million interest payment on an outstanding dollar bond, according to two investors who hold the bond. That could lead to a wave of cross-defaults on its other international debt. Country Garden had around $15.2 billion of international bonds and loans outstanding at the end of June, according to its public disclosures. The payment was due at midnight EST on Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the matter. The company’s inability to meet its debt obligations shows the extent of a painful slowdown in China’s property sector, which was once a key source of wealth creation in the country. The property slump has worsened the strains on China’s economy, which has struggled to return to health this year after emerging from strict zero-Covid policies.(...)
(...)Las izquierdas son, como mínimo, no-antijudías, no-antisemitas y no-antisionistas (Marx, de familia judía; Lenin y Stalin, el Óblast Autónomo Hebreo; Golda Meir, rusa —el ruso, la tercera lengua de Israel—; Borrell en un kibutz —donde conoció a la francesa madre de sus hijas—; China y los uigures).(...)
China’s Home Prices Drop at Faster Pace in Blow to SentimentHousing slump persists despite recent policy stimulus measuresProperty giant Country Garden has signaled likely defaultChina home prices fell at the fastest pace in almost a year in September, adding to doubts over whether Beijing’s steps to prop up the property market are enough to revive the sector.New-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, declined 0.3% last month from August, when they slipped 0.29%, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Thursday. That was the steepest month-on-month decline since October 2022.Prices slid 0.48% in the secondary market, matching the previous month’s decline which was the largest recorded since 2014. The price cuts came even as major cities rolled out measures to stimulate the market, such as lowering mortgage rates and down payment requirements.(...)
China’s Regional Banks Face $300 Billion Hit on LGFVs, S&P SaysDebt pain may be too much to bear for some banks, S&P saysChina’s local governments struggle under $9 trillion in debtChina’s regional banks could incur a capital hit of 2.2 trillion yuan ($301 billion) from a growing debt crisis in the nation’s local governments, according to S&P Global Ratings.In a downside scenario, about one fifth of the regional banks, which hold about $15.6 trillion of assets as of the end of 2022, could sink below the minimum regulatory capital adequacy ratio of 8% and require recapitalization, S&P analyst Michael Huang wrote in a report dated Wednesday.(...)