PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2024

[sudden and sharp]

España crea 103.621 empleos en febrero y el paro desciende en 7.452 personas
https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/macroeconomia/febrero-empleo-paro-espana.html

Es el mejor febrero en 17 años en términos de empleo, pero no de paro. Los fijos discontinuos reincorporados a sus puestos de trabajo no contribuyen ahora en la disminución del desempleo

- 2024 comienza con la destrucción de 231.250 empleos, la mayor en un enero desde 2020
- El 90% de la caída del paro en España se debe al "maquillaje" de los fijos discontinuos









Nutbush City Limits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6VEHUJwUho&list=RDDVc4RSjnb00&index=9






------------
[ NO es país para impacientes...  ]

[newclo]

Subasta de bonos USA a 6Meses por encima del 5% (5.24%).... algo se cuece

Y el viernes los de 1mes y 3 meses estaban por encima de los de 6meses...

https://twitter.com/DarioCpx/status/1763481181717426226?t=1eUp8ZoMgXluid6FTvJ68w

[sudden and sharp]

... desde luego:









Algo se cuece.




-----------
  Es lo que hay...

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/economy/business-immigrant-low-skilled-labor-addiction-bf009a83

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/rich-countries-are-becoming-addicted-to-cheap-labor/ar-BB1jflgi

Rich Countries Are Becoming Addicted to Cheap Labor

As migration hits record levels worldwide, a debate is building among economists over whether some industries are becoming too dependent on foreign labor.

Many business owners say that bringing in low-skilled foreign workers has become essential, as local populations age and labor forces shrink. In rural Wisconsin, John Rosenow says it is impossible to find locals to work on his 1,000-acre dairy farm. He relies on 13 Mexican immigrants, up from eight to 10 a decade ago. That has enabled him to avoid making costly investments in robots that can help milk cows, as some other dairy farmers have.

“We get really good people,” Rosenow says. With immigrant labor, “I’m pretty sure if I wanted to double employment, I could get it done within a week.”

To some economists, however, dependence on imported workers is approaching unhealthy levels in some places, stifling productivity growth and helping businesses delay the search for more sustainable solutions to labor shortages.

Those solutions could include bigger investments in automation, or more radical restructurings such as business closures, which are painful but may be necessary long-term, these economists say.

“Once industry is organized in a certain way and the structure encourages employers to recruit migrants, it can be very hard to turn back,” said Martin Ruhs, a professor of migration studies in Florence, Italy. “In some cases, policymakers should ask, does it make sense?” said Ruhs, who is also a former member of the U.K. Migration Advisory Committee, which advises the British government on migration policy.

The debate is likely to heat up further as Western societies teeter closer to a demographic abyss. For the first time since World War II, the working-age population is shrinking across advanced economies. The European Union’s working-age population will shrink by one-fifth through 2050, according to a recent report by German insurer Allianz.

There are ways to offset that trend, such as encouraging older workers to delay retirement. But importing foreign labor is often the easiest option, given the supply of available workers in places such as Latin America or Africa.

Immigration also provides a rush of economic growth as migrants boost populations and spend money, even when it elicits blowback from conservative groups, as it has in the U.S. and Europe.

Immigration is now running two to three times above prepandemic levels across major destination countries including Canada, Germany and the U.K. In the U.S., 3.3 million more migrants arrived than left last year, compared with a 2010s average of around 900,000.

Three-quarters of farmworkers and 30% of construction and mining workers in the U.S. today are migrants. Overall, immigrants made up 18% of the U.S. workforce in 2021, compared with 16% a decade earlier, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a Paris-based club of mostly rich countries.

Despite promising for decades to curb immigration, the U.K. has seen a surge since its 2020 exit from the EU, as businesses scramble for employees. More than 27% of the National Health Service’s nurses are from abroad today, up from around 14% in 2013. In Germany, roughly 80% of slaughterhouse workers are migrants, unions estimate.

Downsides of overreliance

Increased reliance on low-skilled imported labor can lead to weaker productivity growth, which ultimately determines how fast economies can expand, some economic research suggests.

A 2022 study in Denmark found that firms with easy access to migrant workers invested less in robots. Research in Australia and Canada suggests that migrants could keep weak firms alive, weighing on overall productivity.

Labor productivity growth has been sluggish across advanced economies in recent years. In the U.S. and U.K. farming sectors, productivity has flatlined for a decade or longer. In Japan and Korea, which have more restrictive immigration policies, it increased by around 1.5% a year, OECD data show.

Finding the right balance between allowing some migration, which can help restore dynamism in aging countries, and avoiding overdependence is hard. In many industries, there is no obvious alternative to foreign workers.

Going cold turkey would send prices for products made from migrant labor higher. It would also leave many people in poorer countries with fewer options to pursue better lives.

Anna Boucher, a global migration expert at the University of Sydney, says that some low-skilled migration is probably necessary in the short term due to skills shortages. Without it, some childcare services in Australia would shut down and vegetables would die in the fields.

Economic research suggests that an influx of high-skilled migrants, such as scientists and engineers, can actually lift firms’ productivity and boost local workers’ wages and employment opportunities.

Economists are more divided when it comes to lower-skilled migrants. Such workers are also more easily replaced, including in industries that seem unlikely candidates for automation.

In the Czech Republic, some farmers are using artificial-intelligence-driven robots to monitor and harvest strawberries. Israeli startup Tevel Aerobotics Technologies has developed fruit-picking drones. Fieldwork Robotics, a U.K. company, recently started selling raspberry-picking robots, which stand 6 feet tall with four plastic arms.

Yet for governments, pursuing reforms that boost productivity and allow weaker firms to die is a lot harder than increasing immigration, said Dan Andrews, a productivity expert at the OECD.

“Some countries may have taken the easy way out,” he said.

Pushback from businesses

Hoping to accelerate automation in agriculture, the U.K. government is pouring money into farm technology. It is also considering abolishing rules that allow companies to pay migrant workers 20% less than the going rate for jobs, prompting protests from farmers’ lobby groups. They say farmers adopt technology quickly if it is available, but that robots are no good at picking fruit and vegetables.

“The technology that we are aiming for is five years away…we were saying that five years ago,” said Martin Emmett, a farmer and official at the National Farmers’ Union, a trade group.

In Malaysia, the government last year announced a freeze on hiring of new foreign workers. Government ministers say that overdependence on cheap foreign labor has created a detrimental cycle that allows companies to resist innovation. Local companies say they need more time to invest in automation and upgrade workers’ skills.

Some industries, including manufacturing and plantations, have since been allowed to hire foreigners following appeals, but the broader freeze on foreign workers remains in place with no end date.

In Canada, economists say the government has cast aside a carefully managed immigration system that gave priority to highly skilled workers, and ramped up significantly the intake of foreign students and other low-skilled temporary workers. By flooding the market with cheap labor, Ottawa may be propping up uncompetitive businesses and ultimately damaging productivity, according to a December report co-written by former Canadian central-bank governor David Dodge.

Economic output per capita is lower than it was in 2018 following years of record immigration, notes Mikal Skuterud, an economist at Waterloo University in Ontario. Canada has been bringing in so many low-skilled workers that it lowers the country’s productivity overall, he says.

Germany’s butcher conundrum

The debates are also intensifying in Germany, where businesses including butcher shops in the foothills of the Black Forest are becoming more reliant on imported labor.

Young people don’t want to train as butchers anymore, local businesses say, because it is unglamorous work, with low pay. Labor shortages are one reason why the number of butcher shops has roughly halved over the past two decades.

Three years ago, Handirk von Ungern-Sternberg, an official at the local chamber of handicrafts, started a pilot project to recruit butchers’ apprentices in India, taking advantage of a change in German law that made it easier to hire low-skilled workers from outside the EU. The first batch of 13 young Indians arrived in September 2022.

Now, demand is exploding. Von Ungern-Sternberg plans to bring in roughly 140 Indian workers this year. That number could triple in future, he says.

From auto mechanics to construction, local businesses are clamoring for his young Indian recruits. Chambers of handicrafts across Germany, from the Alps to the North Sea, are seeking his help in starting similar projects.

“We ask ourselves, where’s the limit? Are we a job company? We don’t know where the ceiling is,” von Ungern-Sternberg said.

The program also benefits consumers by helping keep butchers’ costs low. Across the border in Switzerland, where Indian workers aren’t available, meat costs nearly four times as much.

However, Swiss business owners have also been experimenting with new technologies, including sausage vending machines known as Wurstautomaten, which could reduce the need for small-scale butcher’s shops and ultimately help bring prices down.

Meanwhile, opposition to immigration is rising in Germany, which suggests the butchers’ reliance on imported labor might not be sustainable. Support for the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party recently hit an all-time high of 23%. Polls suggest it could emerge as the strongest political force in several German state elections later this year.

Dairy dilemma

In Wisconsin, Rosenow, the dairy farmer, says he’s skeptical of the automated milking machines that he says are advertised in farm magazines. Some neighbors experimented with robots but went back to human labor because the robots constantly needed repairs, he says.

Robots would also cost twice as much as immigrant workers and be costly to maintain, Rosenow says. With immigrants, “labor is no constraint.”

Onan Whitcomb, a dairy farmer in Vermont, disagrees. He says that when he wanted to increase production he decided not to hire immigrant workers. Instead, he spent $800,000 on four Dutch-made milking robots.

Milk production per cow has grown by 30% and the incidence of mastitis, an inflammatory disease, has declined by 80%, he says, meaning less spent on antibiotics. Whitcomb says he was able to cut 2.5 jobs, and the investment paid for itself in seven years.

“We were milking 300 cows and we went to 240, and we still made more” milk, Whitcomb said. “That’s hard to beat.”

[Derby]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/warren-buffett-is-getting-dragged-into-the-real-estate-commissions-litigation/ar-BB1jjXgc

Warren Buffett Is Getting Dragged Into the Real-Estate Commissions Litigation

The lawyers who won a historic verdict against the National Association of Realtors and brokerage firms are turning to a new target as part of their antitrust litigation: Warren Buffett.

On Monday they named a large subsidiary of Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway as a defendant in one of their lawsuits.

In October, plaintiffs won a $1.8 billion verdict after alleging that NAR and two brokerages used a commission structure that kept fees for Missouri agents artificially high. A judge could triple that amount to more than $5 billion.

One of those brokerages was HomeServices of America, which is owned by Berkshire Hathaway Energy. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owns 92% of Berkshire Hathaway Energy.

The new filing, which is part of a national lawsuit against NAR and a handful of brokerages, won’t directly affect the case that went to trial last year. But naming Berkshire Hathaway Energy as a new defendant in the national case could pressure HomeServices and Berkshire to reach a large nationwide settlement of that and other cases.

“What we’re trying to show is that this isn’t an isolated event in some corporate office. This goes to the top of Berkshire Hathaway,” said Michael Ketchmark, a lawyer for the plaintiffs.

The new legal strategy underscores the challenges the plaintiffs are likely to face in collecting potentially billions of dollars in damage awards from NAR. By trying to tie Buffett’s conglomerate to what they allege was a conspiracy to raise real-estate commissions, they are aiming to move beyond NAR’s more limited financial resources and tap Berkshire’s deep pockets.

The three other brokerages originally named as defendants in the Missouri case have settled for some $210 million combined. Those relatively modest settlements reflect how much these companies could pay without being pushed into bankruptcy, plaintiff lawyers have said. NAR, the other remaining defendant, had total assets of roughly $1 billion at the end of 2022.

Berkshire, on the other hand, held more than $160 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of 2023.

HomeServices, Berkshire Hathaway Energy and Berkshire didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Berkshire said in its 2023 annual report that HomeServices could face losses due to the October verdict that could be up to $5.4 billion, excluding attorneys’ fees and other potential costs.

“HomeServices intends to vigorously appeal on multiple grounds the jury’s findings and damage award,” the company said in the annual report. “The appeals process and further actions could take several years.”

After winning the Missouri verdict, the same lawyers filed a similar lawsuit nationwide, one of more than 15 copycat lawsuits that have been filed since October against NAR, local Realtor associations and numerous real-estate brokerages. The revised filing on Monday was in the national lawsuit.

Greg Abel, who oversees all of Berkshire’s noninsurance companies and is in line to eventually succeed Buffett as CEO, was formerly CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy. In their complaint, plaintiffs argue that even as Abel has risen through the ranks at Berkshire, he has continued to be involved in the operations of HomeServices as chair of Berkshire Hathaway Energy.

Plaintiffs also say Buffett has endorsed using his company’s name to promote its real-estate brokerage. “We think the Berkshire Hathaway name will be good for HomeServices and HomeServices for Berkshire,” Buffett is quoted as saying on a company website.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20240305/page/3/textview

Oleada de despidos en el textil

https://www.eleconomista.es/retail-consumo/noticias/12705057/03/24/levis-se-suma-a-hm-y-mete-la-tijera-en-espana-con-un-plan-de-despidos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20240305/page/2/textview

FAZ (Alemania) | Bancos centrales luchan por el fin de la inflación

The Irish Times (Irlanda) | Irlanda cae en recesión durante el año 2023

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20240305/page/17/textview

"Albacete será el centro mundial para el mantenimiento de renovables"

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12703735/03/24/el-empleo-anota-su-mejor-febrero-en-mas-de-16-anos-con-103000-afiliados-mas-y-7400-parados-menos.html

https://www.europapress.es/economia/laboral-00346/noticia-pp-critica-maquillaje-datos-paro-no-incluir-778000-desempleados-mas-registro-20240304112408.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/transportes-turismo/noticias/12703853/03/24/espana-registra-en-enero-cifras-record-de-turistas-internacionales-y-de-gasto-.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12705090/03/24/fiscalidad-descontrolada.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

Las rentas de alquiler dependen de los ingresos (salarios) de los inquilinos. Eso es de cajón. Muchos propietarios han perdido la noción de la proporcionalidad entre rentas de alquiler y salarios al convertir la vivienda en un vehículo de inversión. Suena absurdo, pero muchos propietarios ponen precios de salida estratosféricos con la idea delirante de que sólo se trata de encontrar al inquilino que está dispuesto a pagarlo. Pero la realidad cae por su propio peso, aunque a veces tarde un tiempo.

Esta dinámica tira de los precios (rentas) hacia arriba de forma desordenada y desbocada (una especie de "greedflation"). El índice de precios es un corrector que recoloca las rentas en una realidad. En el caso del índice que ha venido publicando la Generalitat en Cataluña, la realidad corresponde a las fianzas de contratos de arrendamiento depositadas en el Incasol. Contratos reales con rentas reales y no meras expectativas. El Serpavi no debería divergir demasiado.

En mi experiencia en Barcelona, encontrar inquilinos para alquileres de 1.400€/mes en adelante es francamente difícil. Y los interesados suelen ser perfiles que no ofrecen demasiada estabilidad o fiabilidad. Pese a todo, muchos propietarios ofuscados en esa idea de enriquecerse mágicamente toman cualquier riesgo invocando la "seguridad jurídica" (el Séptimo de Caballería al rescate). Como tantas veces se ha repetido en este foro: ¿Qué clase de negocio genera una rentabilidad tan elevada sin ningún riesgo y completamente blindado a favor de una de las partes? Y que sea lícito y legal...

https://www.ft.com/content/a5cba10a-33b9-4341-963c-ec6ae27e8466

London rent rises are cooling, says Foxtons

Estate agent reports easing of supply and demand imbalance that had sent rents soaring

Londoners will see little to no increases in their rents this year because the tight supply and soaring demand that drove rents to record highs has “normalised”, according to Foxtons.

Guy Gittins, chief executive of the London-focused estate agency, said he expected rents on new tenancies to rise between zero and 2 per cent on average across the UK capital in 2024, a marked decrease from the 8 per cent average increase last year.

London was “just starting to head back to a more normalised market”, he said, following the influx of people who returned to the city after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Rents surged in London last year as workers and overseas visitors returned following the crisis, and landlords passed on higher mortgage costs to tenants.

Gittins said there were now 20 to 30 per cent more rental properties available across the capital compared with the same point last year, with fewer applicants chasing each one.

“Large price increases . . . really will be kept at bay,” Gittins added, thanks to “considerably more stock across London, not just at Foxtons but in general in the market”, which is “great news for tenants because it means more choice”.

However, he cautioned that the market remained tight compared with the long-term average. “There are still more tenants looking and fewer properties on the market,” he said. Foxtons said rents remained at “elevated levels”.

The forecast of slower rent growth will bring relief to tenants who have suffered through a period of record price increases.

Higher borrowing costs on mortgages have forced some buy-to-let landlords to sell their properties, reducing supply, or pass on the increases to their tenants. Mortgage rates have stabilised since late last year after the Bank of England held interest rates.

Private rents in London increased 7 per cent in the year to January 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics, the highest increase on record. The average rent on a newly let property in Greater London stood at £2,315 a month in January, according to Hamptons.

The red-hot rental market has helped Foxtons, which derives 70 per cent of its revenue from lettings, to weather the downturn in the home sales market caused by higher mortgage rates.

Foxtons’ lettings revenue grew 16 per cent in 2023, while income from sales fell 14 per cent. The company increased its total revenue by 5 per cent to £147mn and adjusted operating profit by 2 per cent to £14mn.

[Suavesito_Papi]

Copio este mensaje de un usuario de burbuja llamado Alberto1989:

"Todo forma parte de la nueva normalidad, en la que no habrá herencias.

La idea es que el sistema, que será comunismo de crédito social, te irá recompensando cuando actues conforme al régimen, dandote una casa de mejor calidad, y quitandotela, si no cumples las doctrinas del partido.

Para que eso pueda aplicarse, hay que prohibir la transmisión de inmuebles, pero sobretodo, hay que prohibir las herencias."

https://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/threads/ocho-de-cada-diez-viviendas-no-se-podran-vender-ni-alquilar-a-partir-de-2030.2074603/

[el malo]

Las rentas de alquiler dependen de los ingresos (salarios) de los inquilinos. Eso es de cajón. Muchos propietarios han perdido la noción de la proporcionalidad entre rentas de alquiler y salarios al convertir la vivienda en un vehículo de inversión. Suena absurdo, pero muchos propietarios ponen precios de salida estratosféricos con la idea delirante de que sólo se trata de encontrar al inquilino que está dispuesto a pagarlo. Pero la realidad cae por su propio peso, aunque a veces tarde un tiempo.

Esta dinámica tira de los precios (rentas) hacia arriba de forma desordenada y desbocada (una especie de "greedflation"). El índice de precios es un corrector que recoloca las rentas en una realidad. En el caso del índice que ha venido publicando la Generalitat en Cataluña, la realidad corresponde a las fianzas de contratos de arrendamiento depositadas en el Incasol. Contratos reales con rentas reales y no meras expectativas. El Serpavi no debería divergir demasiado.

En mi experiencia en Barcelona, encontrar inquilinos para alquileres de 1.400€/mes en adelante es francamente difícil. Y los interesados suelen ser perfiles que no ofrecen demasiada estabilidad o fiabilidad. Pese a todo, muchos propietarios ofuscados en esa idea de enriquecerse mágicamente toman cualquier riesgo invocando la "seguridad jurídica" (el Séptimo de Caballería al rescate). Como tantas veces se ha repetido en este foro: ¿Qué clase de negocio genera una rentabilidad tan elevada sin ningún riesgo y completamente blindado a favor de una de las partes? Y que sea lícito y legal...

https://www.ft.com/content/a5cba10a-33b9-4341-963c-ec6ae27e8466

London rent rises are cooling, says Foxtons

Estate agent reports easing of supply and demand imbalance that had sent rents soaring

Londoners will see little to no increases in their rents this year because the tight supply and soaring demand that drove rents to record highs has “normalised”, according to Foxtons.

Guy Gittins, chief executive of the London-focused estate agency, said he expected rents on new tenancies to rise between zero and 2 per cent on average across the UK capital in 2024, a marked decrease from the 8 per cent average increase last year.

London was “just starting to head back to a more normalised market”, he said, following the influx of people who returned to the city after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Rents surged in London last year as workers and overseas visitors returned following the crisis, and landlords passed on higher mortgage costs to tenants.

Gittins said there were now 20 to 30 per cent more rental properties available across the capital compared with the same point last year, with fewer applicants chasing each one.

“Large price increases . . . really will be kept at bay,” Gittins added, thanks to “considerably more stock across London, not just at Foxtons but in general in the market”, which is “great news for tenants because it means more choice”.

However, he cautioned that the market remained tight compared with the long-term average. “There are still more tenants looking and fewer properties on the market,” he said. Foxtons said rents remained at “elevated levels”.

The forecast of slower rent growth will bring relief to tenants who have suffered through a period of record price increases.

Higher borrowing costs on mortgages have forced some buy-to-let landlords to sell their properties, reducing supply, or pass on the increases to their tenants. Mortgage rates have stabilised since late last year after the Bank of England held interest rates.

Private rents in London increased 7 per cent in the year to January 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics, the highest increase on record. The average rent on a newly let property in Greater London stood at £2,315 a month in January, according to Hamptons.

The red-hot rental market has helped Foxtons, which derives 70 per cent of its revenue from lettings, to weather the downturn in the home sales market caused by higher mortgage rates.

Foxtons’ lettings revenue grew 16 per cent in 2023, while income from sales fell 14 per cent. The company increased its total revenue by 5 per cent to £147mn and adjusted operating profit by 2 per cent to £14mn.

Foxtons, esos seres.

Creo que ya conté por aquí cómo presionaban a un compañero de trabajo que tiene un piso en alquiler para que lo pusiera por £500 más al mes de lo que él realmente quería (que ya era un precio desproporcionadísimo por un piso de 2 habitaciones). Al final les dijo que una llamada más sobre el tema y les quitaba el piso para dárselo a otra agencia. No se si ya lo tendrá alquilado, esta semana le preguntaré.

Derby no puedo estar más de acuerdo, los caseros han perdido el norte. Pero no en Londres, en todas partes. Han perdido la noción de los salarios (seguramente porque la mayoría de multipropietarios son boomers retirados que nunca tuvieron problemas para acceder a una vivienda, o gente que no ha trabajado en su puñetera vida).

Lo del manido argumento de la seguridad jurídica se acaba en el momento en que les preguntas "¿y por qué no lo pones en alquiler seguro o contratas un seguro contra impagos?" Ahí ya empiezan los morros torcidos, y las malas caras.

Espero que Foxtons acabe en los abismos, como muchas otras inmobiliarias, por inflar el precio artificialmente y vanagloriarse cada vez que colocan un zulo a precio de oro como si se creyeran lobos de Wall Street. Han matado a su propia gallina de los huevos de oro, ahora que se peleen por los huesos. Y luego, que coman barro.