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The housing crisis is still being underplayedYoung adults are being robbed of the milestones that marked the lives of previous generationsOne of the most powerful cultural myths of the English-speaking world over the past century has been the belief that if you work hard, you’ll earn enough to buy yourself a house and start a family.For a long time, it held true. Between the end of the first world war and the turn of the millennium, rates of home ownership climbed rapidly in both Britain and the US, topping out at about 70 per cent as young adults flew the parental nest and set up homes of their own.But in recent decades, that trend has not only stalled but reversed. In 1980, almost half of 18 to 34-year-olds in Britain and America lived in their own property with children of their own, making this the most common arrangement for young adults. Today that is true of only about one in five, and the most common set-up for 18 to 34-year-olds is now to be living with their parents.While some of this is due to the expansion of higher education, the trends hold true even after excluding students. The dream of a family home of one’s own has become just that — a distant dream.But while the housing affordability crisis gets a fair amount of airtime, it often feels secondary to other leading concerns of the day. The breakdown of a central aspirational belief across the wider Anglosphere is at risk of becoming background noise.One key reason for the lack of serious attention or action is age, which works in two ways. First, the people most acutely affected by this problem are from an age bracket that still exercises little political clout by voting. Second, few above the age of about 45 — ie virtually all key decision makers — appreciate what it’s like to have this particular key rite of passage postponed, sometimes indefinitely.The latter point is under-appreciated. We have long-established ways of both discussing and tackling recurring economic shocks such as recessions or inflation. Every tool in the box is thrown at the problem, and the media, politicians and the public alike talk of little else until the worst is over. But the housing crisis is different. There are no recent playbooks to draw from.Aside from the occasional blip, average house prices were roughly four times average earnings in the UK for 80 years between the 1910s and 1990s. This was a fixed characteristic of British society. Knuckle down, save for a few years and buy in your late twenties: simple. Then the ratio doubled in the space of a decade. The last time it was that high, cars had not yet been invented, Queen Victoria was on the throne and home ownership was the preserve of a wealthy minority.To put the price-to-earnings ratio into more tangible terms, it now takes 13 years to save a deposit for the average UK property (up from three in the mid 1990s), and 30 years in London (up from four). To state the obvious, nobody spends 30 years saving for a house. The dream is over.But despite such a historic economic and societal shock, the response from politicians and policymakers has been muted, in sharp contrast to the recent inflation spike.Economists, central bankers and politicians spent the past two years battling a cost of living crisis that saw prices rise by an estimated 20 per cent in total, largely offset by pay increases. Whereas a 100 per cent real-terms increase in the unaffordability of perhaps the single most important good in modern western society has generally been treated as a young person’s issue with politicians paying only lip service to solutions.The breakdown of the housing conveyor belt has huge and diverse impacts. Studies show that the inability to afford a home causes people to postpone starting a family or simply not have children at all. High housing costs also divert individuals away from productive places and activities, and dramatically increase inequality in wealth and between regions.With big elections on the horizon on both sides of the Atlantic, politicians are relieved that they can point to encouraging signs about inflation’s possible return to normal levels. The housing affordability crisis shows no signs of following suit. It should be at the top of the agenda as the political campaigns get under way.
CitarThe housing crisis is still being underplayedYoung adults are being robbed of the milestones that marked the lives of previous generationsOne of the most powerful cultural myths of the English-speaking world over the past century has been the belief that if you work hard, you’ll earn enough to buy yourself a house and start a family.For a long time, it held true. Between the end of the first world war and the turn of the millennium, rates of home ownership climbed rapidly in both Britain and the US, topping out at about 70 per cent as young adults flew the parental nest and set up homes of their own.But in recent decades, that trend has not only stalled but reversed. In 1980, almost half of 18 to 34-year-olds in Britain and America lived in their own property with children of their own, making this the most common arrangement for young adults. Today that is true of only about one in five, and the most common set-up for 18 to 34-year-olds is now to be living with their parents.While some of this is due to the expansion of higher education, the trends hold true even after excluding students. The dream of a family home of one’s own has become just that — a distant dream.But while the housing affordability crisis gets a fair amount of airtime, it often feels secondary to other leading concerns of the day. The breakdown of a central aspirational belief across the wider Anglosphere is at risk of becoming background noise.One key reason for the lack of serious attention or action is age, which works in two ways. First, the people most acutely affected by this problem are from an age bracket that still exercises little political clout by voting. Second, few above the age of about 45 — ie virtually all key decision makers — appreciate what it’s like to have this particular key rite of passage postponed, sometimes indefinitely.The latter point is under-appreciated. We have long-established ways of both discussing and tackling recurring economic shocks such as recessions or inflation. Every tool in the box is thrown at the problem, and the media, politicians and the public alike talk of little else until the worst is over. But the housing crisis is different. There are no recent playbooks to draw from.Aside from the occasional blip, average house prices were roughly four times average earnings in the UK for 80 years between the 1910s and 1990s. This was a fixed characteristic of British society. Knuckle down, save for a few years and buy in your late twenties: simple. Then the ratio doubled in the space of a decade. The last time it was that high, cars had not yet been invented, Queen Victoria was on the throne and home ownership was the preserve of a wealthy minority.To put the price-to-earnings ratio into more tangible terms, it now takes 13 years to save a deposit for the average UK property (up from three in the mid 1990s), and 30 years in London (up from four). To state the obvious, nobody spends 30 years saving for a house. The dream is over.But despite such a historic economic and societal shock, the response from politicians and policymakers has been muted, in sharp contrast to the recent inflation spike.Economists, central bankers and politicians spent the past two years battling a cost of living crisis that saw prices rise by an estimated 20 per cent in total, largely offset by pay increases. Whereas a 100 per cent real-terms increase in the unaffordability of perhaps the single most important good in modern western society has generally been treated as a young person’s issue with politicians paying only lip service to solutions.The breakdown of the housing conveyor belt has huge and diverse impacts. Studies show that the inability to afford a home causes people to postpone starting a family or simply not have children at all. High housing costs also divert individuals away from productive places and activities, and dramatically increase inequality in wealth and between regions.With big elections on the horizon on both sides of the Atlantic, politicians are relieved that they can point to encouraging signs about inflation’s possible return to normal levels. The housing affordability crisis shows no signs of following suit. It should be at the top of the agenda as the political campaigns get under way.A todo esto, y gracias su prevista bajada de tipos para 2024, el sector y la MN anda dando "victory laps" en este inicio de año, cambiando previsiones de -3% a +4% para este año y subiendo los "asking prices" de los nuevos anuncios de venta.
https://www.eleconomista.es/retail-consumo/noticias/12624313/01/24/la-tension-en-el-mar-rojo-triplica-el-precio-de-los-contenedores-habra-mas-inflacion-de-los-alimentos.htmlSaludos.
Pero no estabamos en que la inflacion es un fenomeno puramente monetario provocado por los bancos centrales y que estos podian llevar el nivel de inflacion al nivel que les sale de ahí? A ver si los medios ponen un poco de coherencia en las narrativas porque nos van a dejar la cabecita to-loca.
No sé que se le pasa por la cabeza a un casero o agente inmobiliario que no pudo alquilar la casa en noviembre y diciembre por X, pero cree que en enero la va a alquilar por X+Y.
PS: cuando se trata de caseros que compraron para alquilar, literalmente son pérdidas todos los meses que no hayan sacado al menos para cubrir los costes de la hipoteca. Así hay tanto echado al monte.
CEOs Say Generative AI Will Result in Job Cuts This YearPosted by msmash on Tuesday January 16, 2024 @11:40AM from the shape-of-things-to-come dept.A quarter of global chief executives expect the deployment of generative AI to lead to headcount reductions of at least 5 percent this year, according to a survey unveiled as world and business leaders gathered in Davos, Switzerland. FT:CitarIndustries led by media and entertainment, banking, insurance, and logistics were most likely to predict job losses because of cutting-edge AI tools, according to the poll of top directors conducted by PwC ahead of this week's World Economic Forum. Engineering and construction firms were least likely to anticipate cuts because of automation, alongside technology companies. Some 46 percent of those surveyed said they expect the use of generative AI -- systems that can spew out humanlike text, images, and code in seconds -- to boost profitability in the next 12 months, the survey added. However, 47 percent said the technology will deliver little or no change. The findings, based on interviews with 4,702 company chiefs spread across 105 countries, point to the far-reaching impacts that AI models are expected to have on economies and societies, a topic that will feature prominently at the annual meetings.
Industries led by media and entertainment, banking, insurance, and logistics were most likely to predict job losses because of cutting-edge AI tools, according to the poll of top directors conducted by PwC ahead of this week's World Economic Forum. Engineering and construction firms were least likely to anticipate cuts because of automation, alongside technology companies. Some 46 percent of those surveyed said they expect the use of generative AI -- systems that can spew out humanlike text, images, and code in seconds -- to boost profitability in the next 12 months, the survey added. However, 47 percent said the technology will deliver little or no change. The findings, based on interviews with 4,702 company chiefs spread across 105 countries, point to the far-reaching impacts that AI models are expected to have on economies and societies, a topic that will feature prominently at the annual meetings.
NUEVOS DATOSLa difícil emancipación juvenil: alquilar una habitación se lleva el 40% del salarioA pesar de la caída del paro y la subida de salarios, sólo el 16,3% de personas entre 16 y 29 años vive fuera del hogar familiar Un 16,3% de los jóvenes españoles de entre 16 y 29 años vivía fuera del hogar familiar en el primer semestre del año pasado, porcentaje que supone una ligera mejora respecto a 2022 pero que deja la tasa de emancipación juvenil muy lejos de la media europea (31,9% en 2022) y de los niveles que existían en España antes de la crisis económica de 2008, cuando se superaba el 25% de emancipados.Y es que los jóvenes españoles transitan un escenario agridulce: el paro ha bajado a niveles de 2008, el salario mediano del colectivo ha crecido un 5%, la temporalidad se ha reducido más de diez puntos en un año... pero siguen sin poder independizarse y salir del hogar familiar. La principal razón: el precio de los alquileres ha subido mucho más que los salarios y, por si ello no fuera suficiente, el coste de los suministros se ha disparado un 70%.Imposible vivir soloEsa es la realidad que describe el último informe del Observatorio de Emancipación del Consejo de la Juventud de España, correspondiente al primer semestre de 2023, que constata que ni destinando íntegramente su salario a ello un joven puede vivir en solitario. Tomando como referencia el salario mediano del colectivo (1.005,22 euros netos al mes) y el alquiler mediano de una vivienda (944 euros mensuales), más los gastos de luz, gas y otros suministros (138,12 euros), le faltarían unos 77 euros para ello.Eso aboca a que la emancipación pase casi siempre por compartir piso, aunque esta opción tampoco evita que vean comprometida su solvencia, porque alquilar una habitación en un piso compartido se come prácticamente el 40% del salario joven. Con esos precios, la cuota de algunas hipotecas podría resultar más barata que afrontar un alquiler mensual, pero para pagar la entrada de un piso tendrían que ahorrar la totalidad de su sueldo, sin gastar ni un euro, durante cuatro años y medio. Por ello, el alquiler es la opción más común de los jóvenes que logran la emancipación. "Los alquileres no paran de subir y nuestro poder adquisitivo no para de bajar y eso agrava aún más la crisis habitacional y afecta directamente a nuestra salud mental porque la inseguridad en la vivienda se traduce en ansiedad, estrés y preocupaciones constantes sobre el futuro", ha denunciado la presidenta del CJE, Andrea González Henry, al presentar el informe. Y ha reclamado que se afronte la vivienda como un problema estructural, se aumente el parque público -que en España representa el 2,5 % del total de viviendas frente al 9,3 % de media en Europa-, que se aplique la Ley de Vivienda y que se incremente el salario mínimo, informa Efe.En la misma línea, el secretario de Estado de Juventud e Infancia, Rubén Pérez, ha señalado que "todo pasa por lo que hagamos en materia de vivienda (...). Pondremos en duda el crecimiento de este país si no solventamos la capacidad de los jóvenes de tener su proyecto de vida, de tener su independencia económica y vital".Se independizan en mayor medida las mujeres (19,4%) que los hombres (13,3%), y de hecho la tasa de emancipación juvenil masculina incluso sufrió un ligero retroceso el año pasado. No obstante, la proporción de chicos que se emancipan en solitario dobla la de chicas.(...)