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Lower borrowing costs risk ‘flare-up’ of inflation, warns ECB policymakerIsabel Schnabel says ‘last mile remains a concern’ in battle to bring inflation down to 2%Lower borrowing costs could reinvigorate the eurozone’s stagnant economy and cause inflation to “flare up again”, a senior European Central Bank official has warned.Isabel Schnabel, the most hawkish member of the ECB’s six-person executive board, told the Financial Times that the sharp decline in eurozone inflation reflected the “quick wins of deflation” as supply shocks faded.But she argued that in the battle to bring inflation down to 2 per cent, the “last mile remains a concern”.“We must be patient and cautious because we know, also from historical experience, that inflation can flare up again,” she told the FT in an interview for the Economists Exchange series.Eurozone inflation peaked at 10.6 per cent in October 2022 but had fallen to 2.8 per cent by January. “We have made substantial progress, and that is good news. But we are not there yet,” Schnabel added.Pointing to signs that commercial lenders are reducing borrowing rates on mortgages in expectation that the ECB will soon start cutting interest rates, Schnabel said: “This is an argument against adjusting the policy stance hastily.”Investors are betting the ECB will start cutting rates as early as April. But policymakers said it was premature to discuss such a move at their meeting last month. Many have said it would depend on whether wage growth stayed high or causes another round of price rises.Wages have been rising more than 5 per cent annually on average across the eurozone as workers in the 20 countries that share the euro seek to recapture the purchasing power they lost due to the biggest surge in the cost of living for a generation.Schnabel said labour costs were also being pushed higher by a “worrying” recent decline in productivity — or output per hour worked — caused by a mix of labour hoarding by businesses, the integration of “less productive workers” into the workforce and increased sick leave.The “crucial question” was whether companies would try to pass on higher labour costs to consumers by raising prices or absorb them with lower profit margins, she said.“If demand is held back by restrictive monetary policy, it will be much harder for firms to pass through higher costs to consumers,” she said, adding there was “some evidence that this is happening”.But she warned this process was “rather protracted and quite uncertain because the economy could pick up more strongly than expected. That could encourage firms to again pass through costs to consumers.”The average rate on a typical German 10-year mortgage has fallen from almost 3.9 per cent in October 2023 to just over 2.9 per cent this month, according to price comparison website Check24.There has been a similar trend in France, where the average rate on a 20-year mortgage recently dropped below 4 per cent, after peaking at 4.7 per cent last year, according to online mortgage broker Pretto.The eurozone economy failed to grow in the fourth quarter after stagnating for most of last year, as rising borrowing costs, high prices and reduced government support measures weighed on activity by households and businesses.But Schnabel said there were signs of “a turnaround” in economic activity in the latest survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global and in Citigroup’s Economic Surprise index. The EU’s latest survey of services businesses also found their selling price expectations rose for the fourth consecutive month in January, she added.“That’s why recent incoming data do not allay my concerns that the last mile may be the most difficult one,” she said. “We see sticky services inflation. We see a resilient labour market. At the same time, we see a notable loosening of financial conditions because markets are aggressively pricing the central banks’ pivot. On top of that, recent events in the Red Sea have sparked fears of renewed supply chain disruptions.”“Taken together, this cautions against adjusting the policy stance soon,” she said.
UK House Prices Jump the Quickest Since 2022, Halifax SaysPrices are now down just 0.7% from their peak in 2022In sign market has bottomed out, home builders agree to mergeUK house prices rose at their strongest pace since the middle of 2022 as falling mortgage rates emboldened buyers to return to the market, one of the nation’s biggest mortgage lenders said.Halifax said its measure of prices rose 1.3% in the month of January alone and 2.5% from a year ago, which was the strongest annual pace in a year.(...)
¿Uno de nuestros memes no era "que consuma su puta madre"? Pues parece que ya es tendenciahttps://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2024-02-07/crisis-consumo-jovenes_3825424/Según el artículo los jóvenes no tienen dinero y los viejos no lo gastan.
Cita de: tomasjos en Febrero 07, 2024, 07:39:27 am¿Uno de nuestros memes no era "que consuma su puta madre"? Pues parece que ya es tendenciahttps://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2024-02-07/crisis-consumo-jovenes_3825424/Según el artículo los jóvenes no tienen dinero y los viejos no lo gastan.Que no panda el cúnico. Sólo es demanda embalsada. ¿O era embalsamada? En 2009 vimos esta trola. "Ganas de gastar hay, en cuanto que vuelva a fluir el crédito volverán las compras".Sí los jóvenes ya se han resignado y no gastan, y los viejos empiezan a olerse que parte de sus atenciones antes de irse al agujero las van a tener que costear ellos mismos... La máquina de movimiento perpetuo está más que gripada. Ahora sólo falta que el olorcillo llegue a la escalera del resto de la comunidad de vecinos.
A ver, los viejos no gastan porque no gastan, es normal.Una persona de 70 años que recientemente se haya comprado un coche, o que se compre un coche, seguramente ya no volverá a comprarse un coche en el resto de su vida. Lo mismo sucede con la vivienda, con los muebles, etc.El consumo de la gente mayor son cosas menos caras. El viaje del imserso, un cafelillo, los churros el día de mercado, etc.Esto ya se sabía. Puede ser que los jubilados realicen sus mayores gastos cerca de la edad de jubilación (si se lo pueden permitir) y después ya suelen vivir con lo mínimo.En cambio, los jóvenes de 30 tienen toda una carrera de gsto por delante: vivienda, coches, si tienen hijos: ropa, colegios, actividades, juguetes/deportes, comida. La ecuación es clara: + mayores - jóvenes = menos gasto personal+ mayores - jóvenes = más gasto sanitario (normalmente del estado)+ mayores - jóvenes = menos ingresos del estado
Descojonémonos de los comemierdas.La cuestión de la escasez es la clave, señoras, señores. Según el DRAE pobreza es «falta, escasez»; sus sinónimos son «escasez, carencia, falta, déficit, insuficiencia»; y sus antónimos, «abundancia, riqueza». Por contra, riqueza es «abundancia de bienes y cosas, cualidades y atributos»; sus sinónimos son «fortuna, dinero, capital, hacienda, patrimonio, opulencia»; y sus antónimos, «pobreza, indigencia, miseria». El mundo al revés. En qué mierda más grande se ha convertido el tardopopularcapitalismo, ¿no?¡A por ellos! A cuchillo, sin prisioneros.
US Commercial Real Estate Contagion Is Now Moving to EuropeBonds at Deutsche PBB suffer over bank’s property exposureWarning signals from US to Asia have multiplied recentlyBy Giulia Morpurgo, Tasos Vossos, and Neil CallananThe troubles in the US commercial property market, which have already hit banks in New York and Japan, moved to Europe this week, elevating fears about broader contagion.The latest victim was Germany’s Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG, which saw its bonds slump on concern about its exposure to the sector. It responded by issuing an unscheduled statement Wednesday that it had increased provisions because of the “persistent weakness of the real estate markets.”(...)