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Cita de: sudden and sharp en Febrero 21, 2024, 23:19:58 pmEso es. Y así es como se mide. Se mide la posibilidad / facilidad de devolverla.Bueno, cuidado.Si yo tengo una deuda, mi facilidad de devolverla no depende exactamente de cuanto crece la economía de mi rellano. Es cierto que en el caso del estado este tiene la capacidad de sablear a los vecinos de rellano...El PIB es el PIB de todos (incluido el estado), la deuda pública es la deuda del estado.Viendo el PIB por el lado de las rentas ahí están metidas tus rentas netas y las mías y los ingresos del estado (lo que le falta a tus rentas y las mías para ser brutas).Efectivamente el estado tiene capacidad de reducir todavía más nuestras rentas para aumentar las suyas (hasta un límite porque la constitución y no sé si la ley general tributaria dicen que la cosa tiene su límite).A mi me gustaría conocer otras métricas como cuantos años tardaría el estado en devolver toda su deuda con sus ingresos totales (es decir dedicando todo a devolver deuda).
Eso es. Y así es como se mide. Se mide la posibilidad / facilidad de devolverla.
Cita de: Saturio en Febrero 22, 2024, 00:08:04 amCita de: sudden and sharp en Febrero 21, 2024, 23:19:58 pmEso es. Y así es como se mide. Se mide la posibilidad / facilidad de devolverla.Bueno, cuidado.Si yo tengo una deuda, mi facilidad de devolverla no depende exactamente de cuanto crece la economía de mi rellano. Es cierto que en el caso del estado este tiene la capacidad de sablear a los vecinos de rellano...El PIB es el PIB de todos (incluido el estado), la deuda pública es la deuda del estado.Viendo el PIB por el lado de las rentas ahí están metidas tus rentas netas y las mías y los ingresos del estado (lo que le falta a tus rentas y las mías para ser brutas).Efectivamente el estado tiene capacidad de reducir todavía más nuestras rentas para aumentar las suyas (hasta un límite porque la constitución y no sé si la ley general tributaria dicen que la cosa tiene su límite).A mi me gustaría conocer otras métricas como cuantos años tardaría el estado en devolver toda su deuda con sus ingresos totales (es decir dedicando todo a devolver deuda).A mi me gustaría ver la ratio reditos/ingresos, esto es intereses realmente pagados frente a los ingresos presupustados. (Y otras cosas como el interés medio de la deuda viva en relacióna su duración...)Pero el caso es que se mide así en todas partes. Y se da el caso indiscutible de que si baja es buena cosa. Punto.Para los desastres y malas noticias no sois tan tiquismiquis.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index eclipses record high after 34 yearsBenchmark tops highest-ever level reached in late-1980s asset bubble after powerful rally since JanuaryJapan’s main stock market index has climbed past its all-time high after a 34-year wait, exceeding the record level reached during the country’s late-1980s asset bubble.The Nikkei 225 index of the biggest Japanese companies passed its all-time record intraday high of 38,957 points during trading on Thursday, to close above 39,000 for the first time ever. The closing level of 39,098 was described by one sales trader as the “psychological closure everyone wanted”.The record capped a powerful rally during 2024, driven by rises in chip-related stocks. Traders on dealing floors across Tokyo reported standing ovations, whoops and cheers.Takeo Kamai, head of execution services at CLSA in Tokyo, described a mood of “euphoria and surprise” on his firm’s trading floor, adding that the final spurt over the line had clearly been driven by strong earnings results from US chipmaker Nvidia overnight.In an impromptu press conference, held on his firm’s Tokyo trading floor, Nomura’s chief executive, Kentaro Okuda, said Nvidia’s results had allowed investors in Tokyo to come into the market with a “sense of confidence”.The latest gains carried the benchmark index above its level on the final trading day of 1989, when 15 Japanese companies ranked among the world’s 20 biggest by market capitalisation. The index closed that day at 38,915.(...)
Japanese Stocks Look Different—and Better—Than in the 1980s(...)Corporate profits have done well lately partly thanks to the weak yen. For Japanese companies that had reported their results as of Feb. 9, recurring profits for the December quarter rose 18% year on year excluding SoftBank, which booked big gains from its technology investments, according to Goldman Sachs.But a bigger reason the market has excelled is that Japanese companies are increasingly on board with the corporate-governance initiatives kick-started under then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The Tokyo Stock Exchange has encouraged companies to take steps to improve depressed valuations, including indirectly naming and shaming those companies that haven’t come up with a capital efficiency plan.Shareholders’ returns have indeed been rising. In the past decade, the number of buybacks announced by Japanese companies has tripled, and the number of strategic shareholdings has declined by 20%, according to JPMorgan. Bloated balance sheets with excessive cash and cross-shareholdings have been one major drag on valuations. Around 40% of the companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Prime Market trade below their book value. That is down from 50% a year earlier, but still leaves much room for improvement.Even the world’s most famous value investor has joined the party. Warren Buffett has made a killing from investing in five Japanese trading companies—stodgy conglomerates with businesses ranging from mining to retail—in recent years. These companies are a classic value play—trading at low multiples with high dividend yields. Or at least they were when Buffett first bought them.There are still real pockets of growth in the Japanese market: semiconductor equipment manufacturers or game makers, for example. But the real attraction for many is the market’s cornucopia of other, often-ignored stocks with low valuations—and the potential for higher returns.That should be music to American stock pickers’ ears, especially those worried that the rally at home looks more like the Japan of yesteryear.
Dubai Property Frenzy Sees Buyers Queue for Million-Dollar HomesA rendering of Nakheel PJSC’s Bay Villas luxury waterfront homes development on Dubai Islands.Source: Nakheel PJSCHundreds of buyers queued overnight outside a Dubai-based developer’s office for a chance to snap up luxury waterfront homes, in the latest sign of the frenzy gripping one of the world’s hottest property markets.Government-backed Nakheel PJSC sold all houses on offer in the first two phases at the Bay Villas development within hours. In all, the project on Dubai Islands will feature more than 500 homes, with prices starting at $1.2 million apiece. The most expensive properties will cost upwards of $4 million.(...)
Fed Minutes Show Concern Over Asset Prices, Housing, and LeverageThe word of the day from the minutes of its last FOMC meeting is “notable”.Please consider the following snips from the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee January 30–31, 2024, released today.CitarThe staff provided an update on its assessment of the stability of the U.S. financial system and, on balance, characterized the system’s financial vulnerabilities as notable. The staff judged that asset valuation pressures remained notable, as valuations across a range of markets appeared high relative to fundamentals. House prices increased to the upper end of their historical range, relative to rents and Treasury yields, though underwriting standards remained restrictive. CRE prices continued to decline, especially in the multifamily and office sectors, and low levels of transactions in the office sector likely indicated that prices had not yet fully reflected the sector’s weaker fundamentals. Vulnerabilities associated with business and household debt were characterized as moderate. Nonfinancial business debt growth declined, and the ability of firms to service their debt remained high relative to history.Leverage in the financial sector was characterized as notable. In the banking sector, regulatory risk-based capital ratios continued to increase and indicated ample loss-bearing capacity in the banking system. The fair value of banks’ longer-term fixed-rate assets, including loans, increased in the fourth quarter as longer-term interest rates decreased, though banks remained vulnerable to significant increases in longer-term interest rates. Insurers had been increasing their investments in risky corporate debt. Funding risks were also characterized as notable. Uninsured deposits declined in the aggregate but remained high for some banks. Assets in prime money market mutual funds and other cash management vehicles continued to increase.Regarding the economic outlook, participants judged that the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive and would continue to put downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. Accordingly, they expected that supply and demand in product and labor markets would continue to move into better balance. In light of the policy restraint in place, along with more favorable inflation data amid ongoing improvements in supply conditions, participants viewed the risks to achieving the Committee’s employment and inflation goals as moving into better balance. However, participants noted that the economic outlook was uncertain and that they remained highly attentive to inflation risks.While many participants pointed to disinflationary pressures associated with improvements in aggregate supply—such as increases in the labor force or better productivity growth—a couple of participants judged that the downward pressure on core goods prices from the normalization of supply chains was likely to moderate.In discussing the policy outlook, participants judged that the policy rate was likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. They pointed to the decline in inflation seen during 2023 and to growing signs of demand and supply coming into better balance in product and labor markets as informing that view. Participants generally noted that they did not expect it would be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.Four Notable Things*System’s financial vulnerabilities are notable*Asset valuation pressures remained notable*Insurers had been increasing their investments in risky corporate debt. Funding risks were also characterized as notable.*Leverage in the financial sector was characterized as notable.Concern Over InflationCitarIn light of the policy restraint in place, along with more favorable inflation data amid ongoing improvements in supply conditions, participants viewed the risks to achieving the Committee’s employment and inflation goals as moving into better balance.However, participants noted that the economic outlook was uncertain and that they remained highly attentive to inflation risks. In their discussion of inflation, participants observed that inflation had eased over the past year but remained above the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.They remained concerned that elevated inflation continued to harm households, especially those with limited means to absorb higher prices. While the inflation data had indicated significant disinflation in the second half of last year, participants observed that they would be carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation was moving down sustainably toward 2 percent.Various participants noted that housing services inflation was likely to fall further as the deceleration in rents on new leases continued to pass through to measures of such inflation. While many participants pointed to disinflationary pressures associated with improvements in aggregate supply—such as increases in the labor force or better productivity growth—a couple of participants judged that the downward pressure on core goods prices from the normalization of supply chains was likely to moderate.Inflation is wait-and-see but the Fed’s concern over asset bubbles and leverage is obvious, and notable.The Fed’s Big Problem, There Are Two Economies But Only One Interest Rate.
The staff provided an update on its assessment of the stability of the U.S. financial system and, on balance, characterized the system’s financial vulnerabilities as notable. The staff judged that asset valuation pressures remained notable, as valuations across a range of markets appeared high relative to fundamentals. House prices increased to the upper end of their historical range, relative to rents and Treasury yields, though underwriting standards remained restrictive. CRE prices continued to decline, especially in the multifamily and office sectors, and low levels of transactions in the office sector likely indicated that prices had not yet fully reflected the sector’s weaker fundamentals. Vulnerabilities associated with business and household debt were characterized as moderate. Nonfinancial business debt growth declined, and the ability of firms to service their debt remained high relative to history.Leverage in the financial sector was characterized as notable. In the banking sector, regulatory risk-based capital ratios continued to increase and indicated ample loss-bearing capacity in the banking system. The fair value of banks’ longer-term fixed-rate assets, including loans, increased in the fourth quarter as longer-term interest rates decreased, though banks remained vulnerable to significant increases in longer-term interest rates. Insurers had been increasing their investments in risky corporate debt. Funding risks were also characterized as notable. Uninsured deposits declined in the aggregate but remained high for some banks. Assets in prime money market mutual funds and other cash management vehicles continued to increase.Regarding the economic outlook, participants judged that the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive and would continue to put downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. Accordingly, they expected that supply and demand in product and labor markets would continue to move into better balance. In light of the policy restraint in place, along with more favorable inflation data amid ongoing improvements in supply conditions, participants viewed the risks to achieving the Committee’s employment and inflation goals as moving into better balance. However, participants noted that the economic outlook was uncertain and that they remained highly attentive to inflation risks.While many participants pointed to disinflationary pressures associated with improvements in aggregate supply—such as increases in the labor force or better productivity growth—a couple of participants judged that the downward pressure on core goods prices from the normalization of supply chains was likely to moderate.In discussing the policy outlook, participants judged that the policy rate was likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. They pointed to the decline in inflation seen during 2023 and to growing signs of demand and supply coming into better balance in product and labor markets as informing that view. Participants generally noted that they did not expect it would be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
In light of the policy restraint in place, along with more favorable inflation data amid ongoing improvements in supply conditions, participants viewed the risks to achieving the Committee’s employment and inflation goals as moving into better balance.However, participants noted that the economic outlook was uncertain and that they remained highly attentive to inflation risks. In their discussion of inflation, participants observed that inflation had eased over the past year but remained above the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.They remained concerned that elevated inflation continued to harm households, especially those with limited means to absorb higher prices. While the inflation data had indicated significant disinflation in the second half of last year, participants observed that they would be carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation was moving down sustainably toward 2 percent.Various participants noted that housing services inflation was likely to fall further as the deceleration in rents on new leases continued to pass through to measures of such inflation. While many participants pointed to disinflationary pressures associated with improvements in aggregate supply—such as increases in the labor force or better productivity growth—a couple of participants judged that the downward pressure on core goods prices from the normalization of supply chains was likely to moderate.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 on course for record closeEurope’s Stoxx 600 index is on track for a record close after rising 0.8 per cent in early trading on Thursday.The index, pulled higher by a clutch of corporate earnings, is trading at 495.28. Its record close is 494.35, which it hit in January 2022.Germany’s Dax was up 1.2 per cent, while France Cac 40 rose 1 per cent. London’s FTSE 100 was flat in early trading.Japan’s main stock market index climbed past its all-time high earlier on Thursday after a 34-year wait.Contracts tracking Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 were up 1 per cent and those tracking the Nasdaq Composite were up 1.8 per cent ahead of the New York trading session.
Housing crisis threatens to blow apart retirement systemThe Super Members Council of Australia has released research showing that debt in retirement is increasing.According to the research, more than 40% of workers retire with mortgage debt, up from 16% 20 years ago.Moreover, 40% of singles and 33% of couples will use their whole nest egg to pay off their debts.AMP retirement director, Ben Hillier, made similar observations last year:“For as long as we can remember, the Australian dream has been debt-free homeownership, which provides the financial foundation and security for a comfortable retirement”.“While home values and super balances are increasing, research shows that more and more Australians will be retiring with increasing levels of household debt”.These outcomes directly threaten Australia’s retirement system, which has always been based on the presumption that the overwhelming majority of people would own their homes outright when they retire.Due to falling homeownership rates and households carrying mortgages into their retirement years, that assumption is clearly failing.Indeed, the next chart from independent economist Tarric Brooker shows that there has been a significant increase in Australians aged 55-64 and 45-54 who are carrying mortgage debt, as well as a smaller increase among those already at retirement age (i.e. 65-plus):Not surprisingly, there has also been a significant increase in the share of households renting, reflecting the general decline in housing affordability:Research from the Grattan Institute projected that the proportion of people aged 65-plus who will own a home would decline from 76% currently to 57% by 2056:As illustrated above, less than half of low-income pensioners will own a home by mid-century, compared to more than 70% now.Whichever way you cut it, an increasing proportion of retirees will rent, while others will be saddled with large mortgage debts.Both developments threaten to blow apart Australia’s retirement system.
VIVIENDAPunto final al boom inmobiliario de la covidLa venta de viviendas bajó un 9,7% en el 2023, lastrada por una caída del 17% en la concesión de hipotecas y unos tipos de interés disparadosLa venta de viviendas cerró el 2023 con una caída del 9,7%, hasta las 586.913 unidades, y puso fin al mini boom inmobiliario provocado por la pandemia en el 2021 y el 2022, cuando miles de familias consideraron que su vivienda no se ajustaba ya a una forma de vida que permite pasar más tiempo en casa y visitar menos la oficina y dispararon las ventas un 34,8% y un 14,8% respectivamente.Según los datos publicados este jueves por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), las ventas repuntaron inicialmente en enero pero bajaron el año pasado los once meses siguientes. Diciembre registró la menor cifra de ventas en tres años, desde diciembre del 2020, y las transacciones bajaron un 15,6% interanual, hasta las 36.698 compraventas.Pese a que en el 2023 las transacciones solo aumentaron en enero respecto al año anterior, el mercado inmobiliario ha resistido mucho mejor de lo que los expertos preveían el brutal aumento de los tipos de interés, con un Euribor que llegó a superar el 4% en septiembre, de manera que solo ha habido 63.352 ventas menos, y se han mantenido los precios. "El 2023 sigue siendo el segundo mejor año inmobiliario en España desde el 2007", recordó María Matos, portavoz de Fotocasa.La fortaleza del mercado se ha sostenido en buena parte por la venta de viviendas nuevas, que ha ganado peso hasta suponer el 18,6% de las operaciones, con 110.894 transacciones. Los promotores han vendido 5.564 viviendas menos (un retroceso del 4,8%) respecto a 2022, un año que marcó las ventas de obra nueva más altas desde el 2014.El mercado de segunda mano, con compradores de menor poder adquisitivo y que necesitan por tanto con más frecuencia endeudarse para cerrar la transacción, fue el que más sufrió: tuvo una caída de las ventas del 10,8% el año pasado, hasta las 476.019 transacciones, 57.788 menos que en el 2022, con seis meses cayendo las ventas a tasas de dos dígitos. En diciembre se vendieron 29.820 pisos usados, la cifra más baja en tres años y un 16,4% menos que en diciembre del 2022.La venta de viviendas cayó el año pasado en todas las comunidades autónomas salvo en Asturias, donde se vendieron un 5,6% más de viviendas que el año pasado. De entre los grandes mercados sobresalen las caídas sufridas en Baleares y Madrid, de un -20% y -16%, respectivamente. También cayeron con fuerza las ventas en La Rioja (-18%) y más moderadamente en Canarias (-14,4%), País Vasco (-12,5%), Galicia (-12,4%) Andalucía (-11,3%) y Catalunya (-10,7%).Mejores expectativasSegún Ferran Font, director de estudios de Pisos.com, en 2024, la venta de vivienda “seguirá marcada por la evolución del Euríbor, que previsiblemente viva un cambio en la tendencia claramente al alza de los últimos trimestres, así como por la incertidumbre que generan tanto las consecuencias de los diferentes conflictos armados internacionales como la aplicación de la nueva Ley de Vivienda”.La concesión de hipotecas, por su parte, cayó un 17,81% el año pasado, hasta los 381.560 créditos, según los datos publicados hoy también por el INE. Es el mayor descenso en la concesión de créditos desde el 2013, en la anterior crisis inmobiliaria, y sitúa la actividad hipotecaria al nivel del 2020.Como en el caso de las compraventas, solo en enero aumentó la concesión de hipotecas, y descendió los once meses siguientes. El capital prestado se situó en 54.209,6 millones, con una disminución del 19,4%, en su primera caída en nueve años, y el importe medio descendió un 2,0%, hasta 142.074 euros, 3.840 euros menos que en el año anterior.Más ventas al contadoEn diciembre se firmaron 24.927 hipotecas, el 17 % menos respecto a diciembre del año anterior y la cifra más baja desde agosto del 2020, en plena pandemia. En el último mes del año, el tipo de interés medio fue del 3,32%, igualando el máximo alcanzado en octubre, y el plazo medio de amortización de 24 años. En diciembre, con un Euribor en el 3,68%, las hipotecas firmadas a tipo variable tenían un tipo de interés del 3,07% mientras que alcanzaba el 3,54% en las de tipo fijo.En el 2023, el 60% de las hipotecas se concedió a interés fijo, una modalidad hipotecaria que llegó a suponer el 71% de los créditos en el 2022, el récord en la serie histórica del INE. Los bancos, sin embargo, han encarecido especialmente esos créditos por la subida del Euribor, de manera que su concesión se ha ido reduciendo mes a mes y en diciembre eran ya solo el 54,2% de los créditos, con el 45,8% de las hipotecas sobre viviendas a tipo variable.El endurecimiento de las hipotecas ha cambiado profundamente el mercado inmobiliario: siguen fuertes las ventas de pisos de lujo y las de pisos con un precio de alrededor de 100.000 euros en zonas de segundas residencias cercanas a las grandes capitales, porque sus potenciales compradores no necesitan hipoteca para cerrar la compra. Así, según los datos del INE, si en el 2020, en plena pandemia, el 80,4% de las viviendas se compraban en España con hipoteca, en el 2023 fueron solo el 65%.Los expertos prevén también una mejora de las condiciones hipotecarias para este año. Según Javier Torres, director de hipotecas de Clikalia, la mejora ya ha empezado a finales de 2023, aunque aún no se refleja en los datos del INE, que tienen un retraso de unos dos meses respecto al momento de la firma de la hipoteca. “En Clikalia vemos cómo algunos bancos están apostando por mejoras de tipos y relajando ya ciertos requisitos sobre el perfil de cliente. Sumados estos dos factores, el panorama a futuro son unos volúmenes de operaciones más razonables que los que vimos en 2022”, asegura.
El BCE anuncia pérdidas récord para 2023 por las subidas de tiposporReuters • 22/02/2024 a las 12:52La sede del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) en FrankfurtEl Banco Central Europeo (BCE) anunció el jueves una pérdida anual récord para 2023 y advirtió que era probable que se produjeran más pérdidas, ya que sus drásticos aumentos de tipos de interés lo obligarían a pagar miles de millones de euros a los establecimientos bancarios del bloque.El instituto de Frankfurt registró una pérdida antes de la liberación de provisiones de 7.900 millones de euros, tras un déficit de 1.600 millones de euros en 2022.Tras anular una provisión para riesgos financieros de 6.600 millones de euros, el balance registrará una pérdida de 1.300 millones de euros.Después de dos décadas de ganancias sustanciales en un contexto de tipos bajos y baja inflación, esta pérdida puede explicarse por el aumento de los tipos oficiales que llevó a un aumento de los intereses sobre los compromisos de tipos variables del BCE."No tiene ningún impacto" en la capacidad del BCE para llevar a cabo una política monetaria eficaz, dijo el banco central en un comunicado."Aunque es probable que el BCE sufra pérdidas en los próximos años, posteriormente debería volver a obtener beneficios sostenidos", añadió el organismo emisor.A diferencia de los bancos comerciales, un banco central puede operar con provisiones agotadas e incluso con capital negativo. Sin embargo, estas pérdidas pueden generar preocupaciones sobre la credibilidad, privar a los gobiernos de dividendos y podrían influir en un esperado debate sobre el nuevo marco operativo del BCE.(Escrito por Balazs Koranyi, Blandine Hénault para la versión francesa)