Autor Tema: PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024 (Leído 925678 veces)

sudden and sharp · « **Respuesta #510 en:** Abril 06, 2024, 15:30:09 pm »

Cita de: asustadísimos en Abril 06, 2024, 14:51:47 pm

[Los empleados para España y Portugal de la agencia Fitch Ratings dicen lo siguiente (el documento me ha sido imposible de encontrar en internet):
• «viene un ligero aumento de la morosidad en el sector hipotecario residencial» (previsión que entra dentro de su competencia profesional),
• sin embargo, abracadabra, «el precio nominal de la vivienda va a crecer entre un 3% y un 5% anual en España y entre un 4% y un 6% en Portugal, aunque en el resto de países está bajando» (previsión fuera de su competencia profesional —solo es la hipótesis que permite calificar de ligero el aumento de la morosidad—).

La agencia, además de a adivina, se mete a filósofa económica:
• «Hay persistentes limitaciones en la oferta de viviendas».

¿Dónde está la fuente en que se basa para esta afirmación sobre la oferta de vivienda? Seamos serios, por favor. Una cosa es que «la mierda del bendita mierda de oferta» lo entone el sector y otra, que lo haga el sistema. El sistema, por contra, dice que España y Portugal son los países del mundo con más viviendas por habitante (y Rumanía, el que tiene más porcentaje de propietarios).

Por su parte, los medios de comunicación convencionales dan la noticia al revés. Ponen el 'sin embargo' en el aumento de la morosidad. La noticia solo sería que la vivienda va a seguir subiendo... gracias a Dios, contra viento y marea, inmarcesible, a pesar de «Sánchez, Sáánchez, Sááánchez».

Evidentemente, ni los empleados de la Agencia ni los de los medios de comunicación van a contrariar a la mayoría de sus lectores ni, sobre todo, a sus compañeros trabajadores-directivos, cuyos inmensos patrimonios —derivados de los supersalarios— están constituidos casi solo por ladrillo (máxime en las agencias de calificación crediticia, en donde enseguida surgen conflictos de intereses en cuanto sus miembros invierten en carteras de valores).

Pero la noticia de verdad es que aumenta la morosidad hipotecaria residencial, lo que significa que, por fin, el endurecimiento de la política monetaria está llegando al ladrillo.

Finalmente, la agencia miente en cuanto a que las posibles bajadas discrecionales de los tipos de interés de intervención serán bálsamo de fierabrás para el ladrillo. Para empezar, ¿qué necesidad de bálsamo tiene un negocio tan estupendísimo, no? Pero lo importante es que la agencia silencia aposta que las bajadas de tipos de interés solo vendrán por razones anticíclicas, es decir, después de evidenciarse la recesión que está en ciernes, recesión que será tan larga (peligro de depresión) como tarde en completarse la corrección valorativa de la vivienda obrera, que es lo que tiene hecho polvo al capitalismo.]

A mandar...

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An analysis by the rating agency indicates that house prices will rise in line with household income at least until 2025 and predicts an increase in mortgage delinquencies

Fitch predicts that difficulties in accessing housing in Spain will “persist” for a few years
https://newsrnd.com/business/2024-04-05-fitch-predicts-that-difficulties-in-accessing-housing-in-spain-will-%E2%80%9Cpersist%E2%80%9D-for-a-few-years.Skl4OapaJR.html

Edit: ¿No será esto?

Iberian Mortgage Market Index - April 2024
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/iberian-mortgage-market-index-april-2024-04-04-2024

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Fitch Ratings expects housing affordability challenges to persist, as the projected nominal household income gains in 2024-2025 are broadly equal to house price trend expectations. We expect the national average house price value relative to gross annual household income to remain between 5.5x and 6.0x in Spain and Portugal. However, the affordability ratio is materially stretched in large urban metropolitan areas like Madrid and Lisbon at nearly 8x. We expect credit demand and financing conditions to improve in 2024 compared with last year, due to lower interest rates and stable underwriting practices. However, access to affordable housing is a key social concern in both countries, especially for young families and first-time buyers with little saving capacity. Policy makers have announced new support measures such as the Spanish guarantee scheme for young families, and Portugal’s fiscal benefits to increase the housing stock. See Government Support Measures for Access to Housing below.

Derby · « **Respuesta #511 en:** Abril 06, 2024, 17:42:24 pm »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-05/organized-crime-is-laundering-money-through-european-real-estate

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European Real Estate Is Being Used to Launder Money, EU Says

*Europol report maps organized criminal networks in Europe
*Seizures of cocaine at Port of Antwerp hit new record in 2023

Over a third of the most-threatening criminal networks in the European Union are laundering their profits through real estate, according to a report on organized crime across the region.

Europol, the EU agency for law enforcement cooperation, found that among the criminal groups that pose the most serious threat, 41% used property to launder their illicit proceeds, with luxury items, cash-intensive businesses like hospitality, and cryptocurrencies also popular methods.

“There is almost no actor in the serious and organized crime landscape who is not linked, in one way or another, to a sector of the legal economy, whether to commit the criminal activity, to disguise the criminal activity, or to launder their criminal profits,” according to the report.

The mapping of criminal groups comes as the EU attempts to crack down on organized crime, amid drug-related violence in a number of member states, including Belgium and Sweden, and record cocaine seizures at Europe’s second-largest port, the Port of Antwerp.

The report identifies 821 criminal groups — with an overall membership of over 25,000 — that pose the highest-risk to the bloc, and warned they are able to “inflict significant damage on the EU’s internal security, rule of law, and economy.”

The gangs are borderless, international and their most common activity is drug trafficking, with half involved in the illegal narcotics trade, the report found. Other activities that the criminal groups are involved in include fraud, property crime, migrant smuggling and trafficking in human beings.

Derby · « **Respuesta #512 en:** Abril 06, 2024, 18:39:43 pm »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-05/paris-office-sales-fall-to-lowest-in-15-years-in-first-quarter

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Paris Office Sales Fall to Lowest in 15 Years in First Quarter

Investments in city’s commercial real estate sank 64% by value
Average office price reached lowest level since 2017

Investments in Paris commercial real estate continued to decline in the first quarter, hitting the lowest level in 15 years.

Total deals for properties including offices, retail space and warehouses in the greater Paris area sank 64% from a year earlier to €885 million ($959 million), according to statistics provider Immostat, whose figures only include deals by investors who seek to earn rent income. This is the lowest quarterly level since the second quarter of 2009.

The combination of higher interest rates and the uncertain future of hybrid work has slowed commercial real estate dealmaking in Europe, ending a decade-long boom. Still, the prospect of rate cuts is reviving hopes in some areas of the market. In London, investors have recently pulled heavily discounted deals in a bet that prices will recover.

In the greater Paris area, the average cost of buying office space slumped 19% from a year earlier to €6,205 per square meter in the first quarter. This is the lowest price in almost seven years, and far below the peak of €8,340 per square meter achieved in 2021.

In France, total investment deals plunged 55% to €1.7 billion in the first quarter, according to Immostat.