Los administradores de TransicionEstructural no se responsabilizan de las opiniones vertidas por los usuarios del foro. Cada usuario asume la responsabilidad de los comentarios publicados.
1 Usuario y 25 Visitantes están viendo este tema.
China ramps up de-dollarization efforts by dumping a record amount of US bonds*China sold a record $53.3 billion worth of Treasurys and agency bonds in the first-quarter, Bloomberg reported.*It previously unloaded US debt to prop up its yuan, which has again grown weak against a rallying dollar.*The country is piling into gold, which now makes up the highest share of its reserves since 2015.China unloaded a record volume of US bonds in the first quarter, escalating the country's pivot from dollar-denominated assets.According to US Treasury data cited by Bloomberg, Beijing sold $53.3 billion worth of US Treasury and agency bonds from its stockpile.That's above already eye-catching volumes China was offloading last year. Altogether, one estimate has calculated that the country has sold $300 billion of US Treasurys between 2021 and mid-2023. China's selling grew to the point that markets worried about higher yields.But now, China seems to be accelerating its step back, as trade relations seem unlikely to improve between Beijing and the US.By last year, China was already discarding US debt to prop up its yuan, given considerable declines against the dollar. This could again be the case, as the greenback has rallied heavily on hawkish US monetary policy.In fact, the US Dollar Index has reached as high as 4.9% year-to-date, while the yuan has only trailed lower. This has made imports into the country expensive and could be a trend that only gets worse: that's if rising US protectionism continues to prop up the greenback.Most recently, that's as the Biden Administration has announced tariffs on a slew of advanced Chinese products, targeting everything from electric vehicles to batteries. Even if former President Donald Trump wins back the White House come November, he has promised to apply tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports.To diversify from the dollar, Beijing is also diving harder into purchasing gold. Now, the metal makes up a 4.9% of Chinese reserves, the highest since at least 2015, Bloomberg said. It's a trend followed by other central banks as well, who have been snapping up bullion at record speeds.But dollar strength isn't the only thing motivating these trends. China is also de-dollarizing its reserves as part of a broader movement to diversify global finance, and chip at dollar dominance.Fear of US sanctions first triggered this pattern among central banks, after witnessing how the West applied dollar restrictions on Russia in 2022.
Russia unsettles Nato with plan to redraw Baltic Sea bordersDefence ministry’s proposal draws condemnation from Lithuania and FinlandMoscow has sparked condemnation from Nato members after proposing to redraw Russia’s borders in the Baltic Sea.The Russian defence ministry late on Tuesday laid out a plan to unilaterally expand the country’s maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland, both members of the military alliance. Less than 24 hours later, it deleted the proposal from the government website.“Another Russian hybrid operation is under way, this time attempting to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt about their intentions in the Baltic Sea. This is an obvious escalation against Nato and the EU, and must be met with an appropriately firm response,” Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s foreign minister, said on Wednesday.His ministry summoned a Russian diplomatic representative for a detailed explanation, and said Vilnius would co-ordinate its response with allies.Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday there was “nothing political” in the defence ministry’s proposal, without commenting on its details. “You can see how tensions are escalating, the level of confrontation, particularly in the Baltic region, demands the necessary steps from our relevant agencies to ensure our security,” he said.The plan is the latest attempt by Moscow to unsettle its neighbours following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Nato countries including Lithuania and Finland have warned of increasing hybrid attacks from Russia in recent months, including cyber attacks, forced migration and acts of sabotage.The Russian defence ministry said the current borders in the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which borders Lithuania “do not fully correspond to the current geographical situation”.Lithuania’s foreign ministry said it was “a deliberate, targeted, escalating provocation, aimed at intimidating neighbouring countries and their societies”.Finnish President Alexander Stubb said “Russia has not been in contact with Finland on the matter. Finland acts as always: calmly and based on facts.” His foreign minister, Elina Valtonen, said: “Sowing confusion is a part of hybrid influencing. Finland won’t be confused.”Baltic countries, backed by other European powers such as the UK, Germany and France, have warned that Russia could be able to attack a Nato member within the next few years. But Stubb told the Financial Times last month that such an attack was “highly unlikely” even though Finland and Nato should prepare for the possibility.
Cita de: senslev en Mayo 20, 2024, 17:31:08 pmPuede ser que no lo sean, o sí. Un lavado de cara y listo.https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrupaci%C3%B3n_Nacional_(Francia)CitarLa Agrupación Nacional —en francés: Rassemblement national, RN, denominado hasta 2018 como Frente Nacional (FN) (en francés: Front national)— es un partido político francés considerado por los especialistas como de extrema derecha,15n. 1aunque se declare de derecha23 moderada.Sus orígenes se encuentran en una coalición de partidos de la extrema derecha francesa, cuando fue fundado en octubre de 1972 y presidido desde ese momento hasta enero de 2011 por Jean-Marie Le Pen. A partir de entonces fue sustituido por su hija Marine Le Pen,24 que encabezó un proyecto de mejoramiento de la imagen del partido (desdemonización).25 Su nombre completo, en su creación, era Front National pour l'Unité Française (Frente Nacional para la Unidad Francesa).https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vox_(partido_pol%C3%ADtico)CitarVox («voz» en latín)35n. 3n. 4 es un partido político español de ideología ultraconservadora54 y ultranacionalista78910 fundado el 17 de diciembre de 2013. Vox está calificado por especialistasn. 5 como un partido de ultraderecha,n. 6 de derecha radical populistan. 7 o de extrema derecha.n. 8n. 2 Sin embargo, algunos medios de tendencia conservadora prefieren referirse al partido como de derecha.n. 1 El presidente del partido es Santiago Abascal, su vicepresidente y secretario general es Ignacio Garriga.82A nivel de la Unión Europea, Vox es miembro del Partido de los Conservadores y Reformistas Europeos (ECR), un grupo parlamentario europeo menos radical que el ultraderechista83 Identidad y Democracia (ID), en el que Vox declinó la invitación a integrarse.84Entonces IU, Podemos o Sumar, son izquierda moderada. Y la CUP también.Cita de: el malo en Mayo 20, 2024, 17:08:20 pmCita de: senslev en Mayo 20, 2024, 15:48:44 pmPues ayer en Vistalegre hubo una reunión que indica lo contrario. Estoy de acuerdo que el auge de estos individuos es una consecuencia, pero extrema derecha (o como la quieras llamar) haberla, hayla. Ya ha pasado otras veces, sigo recomendando el libro End Times de Peter Turchin.Esas élites que están nerviosas porque no hay sitio para todos, o porque algunos dentro de ellas, pueden perder sus puestos de privilegio.¿Entonces damos por bueno que VOX or Milei son extrema derecha? Lo digo porque en los pocos vídeos y muchos tweets que he visto del evento no vi exhibición de ningún tipo de fascismo ni nada que me hiciera tener miedo si perteneciera a un colectivo tradicionalmente objetivo de grupos fascistas.Utilizamos el término "extrema derecha" con una facilidad alarmante. A mí que he visto en primera persona lo que de verdad es la extrema derecha, decir que Abascal es fascista/nazi o como lo quieran llamar, me da la risa.Si en España de verdad hubiera 3 millones de fascistas (número de votantes de VOX), hace tiempo que habría estallado una guerra civil con muchos muertos. Ni siquiera me hacen falta 3, con que hubiera 1 millón hace mucho que se habría liado un follón sin retorno.Es que curiosamente es la izquierda la que decide quién es izquierda y quién derecha, y hemos llegado a un punto en que cualquier cosa a la derecha del PSOE es extremaderecha. ¿O no se acuerdan cuando a Rivera le llamaban Falangito? La izquierda se ha refundado tantísimas veces que ya no defiende a los obreros, ahora defiende a las minorías, pero sólo a algunas y algunas son mejores que otras (por eso las masas se lanzan a la calle a defender a las mujeres -menuda minoría, el 50% de la población-, a no ser que el agresor sea inmigrante. Entonces no.)Yo soy socialista convencido. Creo en un Estado con servicios públicos de calidad gratuitos o semigratuitos para todos, financiados con unos impuestos justos y proporcionales. No estoy en contra de la educación o la sanidad privada, siempre que no sean un sustituto de la pública.Que wikipedia diga que VOX es extrema derecha a mí no me dice nada. ¿Se han leído el programa? Díganme en qué punto ven una política de extrema derecha. No vayan a lo que dicen otros, vayan a lo que ellos mismos proponen y díganme cuáles de sus puntos son de extrema derecha y por qué.Los que son de extrema derecha de verdad no lo ocultan ni lo tratan de disimular, lo exhiben orgullosos, igual que los comunistas no pierden ocasión de restregarte por la cara la estrella o la hoz y el martillo.
Puede ser que no lo sean, o sí. Un lavado de cara y listo.https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrupaci%C3%B3n_Nacional_(Francia)CitarLa Agrupación Nacional —en francés: Rassemblement national, RN, denominado hasta 2018 como Frente Nacional (FN) (en francés: Front national)— es un partido político francés considerado por los especialistas como de extrema derecha,15n. 1aunque se declare de derecha23 moderada.Sus orígenes se encuentran en una coalición de partidos de la extrema derecha francesa, cuando fue fundado en octubre de 1972 y presidido desde ese momento hasta enero de 2011 por Jean-Marie Le Pen. A partir de entonces fue sustituido por su hija Marine Le Pen,24 que encabezó un proyecto de mejoramiento de la imagen del partido (desdemonización).25 Su nombre completo, en su creación, era Front National pour l'Unité Française (Frente Nacional para la Unidad Francesa).https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vox_(partido_pol%C3%ADtico)CitarVox («voz» en latín)35n. 3n. 4 es un partido político español de ideología ultraconservadora54 y ultranacionalista78910 fundado el 17 de diciembre de 2013. Vox está calificado por especialistasn. 5 como un partido de ultraderecha,n. 6 de derecha radical populistan. 7 o de extrema derecha.n. 8n. 2 Sin embargo, algunos medios de tendencia conservadora prefieren referirse al partido como de derecha.n. 1 El presidente del partido es Santiago Abascal, su vicepresidente y secretario general es Ignacio Garriga.82A nivel de la Unión Europea, Vox es miembro del Partido de los Conservadores y Reformistas Europeos (ECR), un grupo parlamentario europeo menos radical que el ultraderechista83 Identidad y Democracia (ID), en el que Vox declinó la invitación a integrarse.84Entonces IU, Podemos o Sumar, son izquierda moderada. Y la CUP también.Cita de: el malo en Mayo 20, 2024, 17:08:20 pmCita de: senslev en Mayo 20, 2024, 15:48:44 pmPues ayer en Vistalegre hubo una reunión que indica lo contrario. Estoy de acuerdo que el auge de estos individuos es una consecuencia, pero extrema derecha (o como la quieras llamar) haberla, hayla. Ya ha pasado otras veces, sigo recomendando el libro End Times de Peter Turchin.Esas élites que están nerviosas porque no hay sitio para todos, o porque algunos dentro de ellas, pueden perder sus puestos de privilegio.¿Entonces damos por bueno que VOX or Milei son extrema derecha? Lo digo porque en los pocos vídeos y muchos tweets que he visto del evento no vi exhibición de ningún tipo de fascismo ni nada que me hiciera tener miedo si perteneciera a un colectivo tradicionalmente objetivo de grupos fascistas.Utilizamos el término "extrema derecha" con una facilidad alarmante. A mí que he visto en primera persona lo que de verdad es la extrema derecha, decir que Abascal es fascista/nazi o como lo quieran llamar, me da la risa.Si en España de verdad hubiera 3 millones de fascistas (número de votantes de VOX), hace tiempo que habría estallado una guerra civil con muchos muertos. Ni siquiera me hacen falta 3, con que hubiera 1 millón hace mucho que se habría liado un follón sin retorno.
La Agrupación Nacional —en francés: Rassemblement national, RN, denominado hasta 2018 como Frente Nacional (FN) (en francés: Front national)— es un partido político francés considerado por los especialistas como de extrema derecha,15n. 1aunque se declare de derecha23 moderada.Sus orígenes se encuentran en una coalición de partidos de la extrema derecha francesa, cuando fue fundado en octubre de 1972 y presidido desde ese momento hasta enero de 2011 por Jean-Marie Le Pen. A partir de entonces fue sustituido por su hija Marine Le Pen,24 que encabezó un proyecto de mejoramiento de la imagen del partido (desdemonización).25 Su nombre completo, en su creación, era Front National pour l'Unité Française (Frente Nacional para la Unidad Francesa).
Vox («voz» en latín)35n. 3n. 4 es un partido político español de ideología ultraconservadora54 y ultranacionalista78910 fundado el 17 de diciembre de 2013. Vox está calificado por especialistasn. 5 como un partido de ultraderecha,n. 6 de derecha radical populistan. 7 o de extrema derecha.n. 8n. 2 Sin embargo, algunos medios de tendencia conservadora prefieren referirse al partido como de derecha.n. 1 El presidente del partido es Santiago Abascal, su vicepresidente y secretario general es Ignacio Garriga.82A nivel de la Unión Europea, Vox es miembro del Partido de los Conservadores y Reformistas Europeos (ECR), un grupo parlamentario europeo menos radical que el ultraderechista83 Identidad y Democracia (ID), en el que Vox declinó la invitación a integrarse.84
Cita de: senslev en Mayo 20, 2024, 15:48:44 pmPues ayer en Vistalegre hubo una reunión que indica lo contrario. Estoy de acuerdo que el auge de estos individuos es una consecuencia, pero extrema derecha (o como la quieras llamar) haberla, hayla. Ya ha pasado otras veces, sigo recomendando el libro End Times de Peter Turchin.Esas élites que están nerviosas porque no hay sitio para todos, o porque algunos dentro de ellas, pueden perder sus puestos de privilegio.¿Entonces damos por bueno que VOX or Milei son extrema derecha? Lo digo porque en los pocos vídeos y muchos tweets que he visto del evento no vi exhibición de ningún tipo de fascismo ni nada que me hiciera tener miedo si perteneciera a un colectivo tradicionalmente objetivo de grupos fascistas.Utilizamos el término "extrema derecha" con una facilidad alarmante. A mí que he visto en primera persona lo que de verdad es la extrema derecha, decir que Abascal es fascista/nazi o como lo quieran llamar, me da la risa.Si en España de verdad hubiera 3 millones de fascistas (número de votantes de VOX), hace tiempo que habría estallado una guerra civil con muchos muertos. Ni siquiera me hacen falta 3, con que hubiera 1 millón hace mucho que se habría liado un follón sin retorno.
Pues ayer en Vistalegre hubo una reunión que indica lo contrario. Estoy de acuerdo que el auge de estos individuos es una consecuencia, pero extrema derecha (o como la quieras llamar) haberla, hayla. Ya ha pasado otras veces, sigo recomendando el libro End Times de Peter Turchin.Esas élites que están nerviosas porque no hay sitio para todos, o porque algunos dentro de ellas, pueden perder sus puestos de privilegio.
Ucrania, Argentina, departamento de Estado norteamericano, Israel... Y en esta encrucijada de caminos, una vez más, España (y el hispanismo).Sorpresivo y muy VALIENTE el reconocimiento español de Palestina.Sigo diciendo que Pedro Sánchez es el hijo de puta que PREFIERO EN MI EQUIPO.A este no lo engaña ni Dios.
https://x.com/Israel_katz/status/1793174400151249194
Meta AI chief says large language models will not reach human intelligenceYann LeCun argues current AI methods are flawed as he pushes for ‘world modelling’ vision for superintelligenceMeta’s artificial intelligence chief said the large language models that power generative AI products such as ChatGPT would never achieve the ability to reason and plan like humans, as he focused instead on a radical alternative approach to create “superintelligence” in machines.Yann LeCun, chief AI scientist at the social media giant that owns Facebook and Instagram, said LLMs had “very limited understanding of logic . . . do not understand the physical world, do not have persistent memory, cannot reason in any reasonable definition of the term and cannot plan . . . hierarchically”.In an interview with the Financial Times, he argued against relying on advancing LLMs in the quest to make human-level intelligence, as these models can only answer prompts accurately if they have been fed the right training data and are, therefore, “intrinsically unsafe”.Instead, he is working to develop an entirely new generation of AI systems that he hopes will power machines with human-level intelligence, although he said this vision could take 10 years to achieve.Meta has been pouring billions of dollars into developing its own LLMs as generative AI has exploded, aiming to catch up with rival tech groups, including Microsoft-backed OpenAI and Alphabet’s Google.LeCun runs a team of about 500 staff at Meta’s Fundamental AI Research (Fair) lab. They are working towards creating AI that can develop common sense and learn how the world works in similar ways to humans, in an approach known as “world modelling”.The Meta AI chief’s experimental vision is a potentially risky and costly gamble for the social media group at a time when investors are itching to see quick returns on AI investments.Last month, Meta lost nearly $200bn in value when chief executive Mark Zuckerberg vowed to increase spending and turn the social media group into “the leading AI company in the world”, spooking Wall Street investors concerned about rising costs with little immediate revenue potential.“We are at the point where we think we are on the cusp of maybe the next generation AI systems,” LeCun said.LeCun’s comments come as Meta and its rivals push forward with ever more enhanced LLMs. Figures such as OpenAI chief Sam Altman believe they provide a vital step towards creating artificial general intelligence (AGI) — the point when machines have greater cognitive capabilities than humans.OpenAI last week released its new faster GPT-4o model, and Google unveiled a new “multimodal” artificial intelligence agent that can answer real-time queries across video, audio and text called Project Astra, powered by an upgraded version of its Gemini model.Meta also launched its new Llama 3 model last month. The company’s global affairs head Sir Nick Clegg said its latest LLM had “vastly improved capabilities like reasoning” — the ability to apply logic to queries. For example, the system would surmise that a person suffering from a headache, sore throat and runny nose had a cold, but could also recognise that allergies might be causing the symptoms.However, LeCun said this evolution of LLMs was superficial and limited, with the models learning only when human engineers intervene to train it on that information, rather than AI coming to a conclusion organically like people.“It certainly appears to most people as reasoning — but mostly it’s exploiting accumulated knowledge from lots of training data,” LeCun said, but added: “[LLMs] are very useful despite their limitations.”Google DeepMind has also spent several years pursuing alternative methods to building AGI, including methods such as reinforcement learning, where AI agents learn from their surroundings in a game-like virtual environment.At an event in London on Tuesday, DeepMind’s chief Sir Demis Hassabis said what was missing from language models was “they didn’t understand the spatial context you’re in . . . so that limits their usefulness in the end”.Meta set up its Fair lab in 2013 to pioneer AI research, hiring leading academics in the space.However, in early 2023, Meta created a new GenAI team, headed by chief product officer Chris Cox. It poached many AI researchers and engineers from Fair, and led the work on Llama 3 and integrated it into products, such as its new AI assistants and image-generation tools.The creation of the GenAI team came as some insiders argued that an academic culture within the Fair lab was partly to blame for Meta’s late arrival to the generative AI boom. Zuckerberg has pushed for more commercial applications of AI under pressure from investors.However, LeCun has remained one of Zuckerberg’s core advisers, according to people close to the company, due to his record and reputation as one of the founding fathers of AI, winning a Turing Award for his work on neural networks.“We’ve refocused Fair towards the longer-term goal of human-level AI, essentially because GenAI now is focused on the stuff that we have a clear path towards,” LeCun said.“[Achieving AGI] not a product design problem, it’s not even a technology development problem, it’s very much a scientific problem,” he added.LeCun first published a paper on his world modelling vision in 2022 and Meta has since released two research models based on the approach.Today, he said Fair was testing different ideas to achieve human-level intelligence because “there’s a lot of uncertainty and exploration in this, [so] we can’t tell which one will succeed or end up being picked up”.Among these, LeCun’s team is feeding systems with hours of video and deliberately leaving out frames, then getting the AI to predict what will happen next. This is to mimic how children learn from passively observing the world around them.He also said Fair was exploring building “a universal text encoding system” that would allow a system to process abstract representations of knowledge in text, which can then be applied to video and audio.Some experts are doubtful of whether LeCun’s vision is viable.Aron Culotta, associate professor of computer science at Tulane University, said common sense had long been “a thorn in the side of AI”, and that it was challenging to teach models causality, leaving them “susceptible to these unexpected failures”.One former Meta AI employee described the world modelling push as “vague fluff”, adding: “It feels like a lot of flag planting.”Another current employee said Fair had yet to prove itself as a true rival to research groups such as DeepMind.In the longer term, LeCun believes the technology will power AI agents that users can interact with through wearable technology, including augmented reality or “smart” glasses, and electromyography (EMG) “bracelets”.“[For AI agents] to be really useful, they need to have something akin to human-level intelligence,” he said.
The US economy is in a 'selective recession' as lower-income consumers can't cover the cost of living, JPMorgan says*Lower-income Americans are already in a recession, according to JPMorgan's Matthew Boss.*The analyst said the US was in a "selective" recession as some consumers .*67% of middle-class Americans said they believed their income wasn't keeping up with the cost of living.The US economy is in a "selective recession," as lower-income Americans are struggling to get by while upper-income consumers are doing just fine, according to JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss.Speaking to CNBC on Tuesday, Boss pointed to the divergence in upper-income and middle-to-lower income Americans, the latter of whom are struggling to keep up with the rising cost of living as prices remain elevated and savings dwindle. "You have the consumer at the high end who is being more choiceful. The low-end I do think is a melting ice cube … What I'm calling it now is a selective recession," Boss said. "y our survey, over 70% of low-income consumers right now are saying that they're struggling to make ends meet." Other market commentators have pointed to a coming slowdown in consumer spending, especially as middle-class Americans feel the pinch of inflation. 67% of middle-class households polled by Primerica in the first quarter said they believed their income was falling behind the cost of living. Inflation has cooled dramatically from its highs in 2022, but consumers are still feeling the pain of accumulated price increases over the years. Consumer prices overall are 22% higher than they were five years ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics."You focus on that low- to middle-income consumer, they're under pressure, and the pressure is really that the inflation ... continues to last. Each month that we move forward, it doesn't matter that inflation is not worsening, it's just an incremental toll on that savings that they built," Boss said.Most Americans have likely blown through the savings they accumulated during the pandemic. Excess savings from the COVID era were probably depleted in March of this year, according to a paper from San Francisco Fed economists. 38% of middle-class respondents in Primerica's survey added that they didn't have a $1,000 emergency fund. Recession fears have been on the rise as Americans survey a weakening job market and anticipate rates staying higher for longer. The US has a 50-50 chance of slipping into a downturn within the next 12 months, the New York Fed estimated in its latest recession forecast.
Dow slides 300 points as Fed meeting minutes show inflation worriesU.S. stocks traded lower Wednesday as the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting raised concerns of persistent inflation, indicating the central bank may not cut interest rates soon.(...)
El Sáhara Español no era una colonia. Creo que era una provincia Española y tenían ciudadanía Española como cualquier peninsular. Saludos.