Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2025

[puede ser]

Al hilo de las nuevas reglas en las relaciones entre estados, las zonas de influencia y demás... les propongo una elucubración traída por los pelos. ¿Ven ustedes posible una intervención militar conjunta hispano-iberoamericana en Venezuela? Aprovechamos que Estados Unidos no quiere intervenir militarmente en ningún lado, aumentamos nuestra influencia en Iberoamérica y se la negamos a otros, con acceso a fuentes de energía venezolana, solucionamos las inestabilidades que la inmigración venezolana está generando en todo el continente americano. Y tampoco creo que fuera recibida de forma hostil por la población en Venezuela, sobre todo porque sería muy fácil enviar tropas españolas que son nacidas en Venezuela...

Imposible.
- EEUU sí que intervendría militarmente en su patio trasero (véase el interés por el canal de Panamá o la frontera de México con la excusa del fentanilo.
- España no tiene apenas capacidad para ninguna iniciativa militar y mucho menos en otro continente, lo que haría la posibilidad de beneficios -petróleo barato- remota.
- No está en el espíritu (Volkgeist) iberoaméricano la posibilidad de emprender acciones militares de tipo imperialista depredador o -como en este caso-; de intervención en otro país desde una supuesta superioridad moral de corte universalista. Cada Estado es libre de pecar y en su propia mano está su redención.

[Derby]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/us/politics/doge-musk-contracts-wall.html

Struggling With Errors, DOGE Deletes Billions More From List of Savings

For the second time in a week, Elon Musk’s government overhaul effort updated its “wall of receipts” to remove mistakes that inflated its success.

Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency has deleted hundreds more claims from its mistake-plagued “wall of receipts,” erasing $4 billion in additional savings that the group said it had made for U.S. taxpayers.

Late Sunday night, the group erased or altered more than 1,000 contracts it had claimed to cancel, representing more than 40 percent of all the contracts listed on its site last week. The deleted items included five of the seven largest savings that it had claimed credit for just last week. At the same time, the group added about 1,000 additional canceled contracts, worth smaller total savings.

It was the second time in a week that DOGE had deleted some of its greatest claims of success.

Early last week, it erased all five of the largest savings it had claimed when the wall of receipts, which is what the group is calling its list of canceled contracts, was originally posted on Feb. 19.

Since that first posting, the total amount of savings that the initiative has claimed from cutting contracts has steadily declined, from $16 billion at first to less than $9 billion now.

The “wall” shows only some of the cuts Mr. Musk has imposed on government, making it difficult to assess the claim that his initiative has saved taxpayers more than $100 billion. But the site is the only place where the group has given a detailed public accounting of its work, providing a rare look at its basic competence and familiarity with government data.

Contracting and budget experts say that look has been worrisome.

From its start, the list has been full of errors: claims that confused billions with millions, triple-counted the same cancellation, or claimed credit for contracts that had ended years or even decades before. Contracting experts said these mistakes raised questions about DOGE’s basic understanding of the federal government, at a time when Mr. Musk’s group is attempting to rapidly overhaul it.

“Overall, there’s a certain randomness to it,” said Jessica Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank. “It seems like DOGE had certain agencies pull together some random lists of contracts that may or may not currently exist anyway, and then, without checking the data very well, uploaded it onto a website and summed up the amounts. It doesn’t seem to be centrally coordinated.”

Mr. Musk’s group and the White House did not respond to requests for comment about the new deletions sent on Monday morning. Since news media outlets began to point out errors in the list, the group has added language on its website that shifts the blame onto individual federal agencies — saying the dollar figures on its site “originate directly from agency contracting officials.”

Among the largest claims that disappeared:

    *A $1.9 billion savings that the group said it had achieved by canceling an Internal Revenue Service contract for tech help. Before Sunday night, this had been the biggest single savings on the site. But The New York Times reported that the contract was actually canceled in November, while Joseph R. Biden Jr. was president.

    *A $149 million savings attributed to canceling a contract to provide three administrative assistants at the Department of Health and Human Services. The entry on the site last week contained numerous errors, including a link to a different contract, with a different company, that did not involve administrative assistants or $149 million. On Sunday, after The Times mentioned this garbled entry, it disappeared.

    *A $133 million savings that the group said had come from canceling a U.S. Agency for International Development contract for work in Libya. The contractor, Chemonics International, posted last year on LinkedIn that its work on that contract had already ended.

Even after the changes to the group’s website, however, some errors remained. As of Monday morning, the list still included claims that DOGE achieved $106 million in savings by canceling a pair of contracts that the Coast Guard signed for administrative help.

That was wrong. Federal procurement data shows that these contracts were actually completed in 2005 and 2006, when George W. Bush was president.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Este titular, tiene más influencia en la política local que todos los papers del Comisario de vivienda.

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/13247052/03/25/el-precio-del-alquiler-sube-un-11-en-febrero-y-marca-un-nuevo-record-donde-lo-hace-con-mas-fuerza.html
El precio del alquiler sube un 11% en febrero y marca un nuevo récord: ¿dónde lo hace con más fuerza?

Y así será hasta que pase como en julio de 2007, cuando en el Telediario / el Parte salieron dos titulares. Que la vivienda ya bajaba, y que sin ayudas la construcción no iba a poder mantenerse.

Ahí empezó a rodar la bola. Las elecciones de marzo de 2008 "hasta marzo no quiebra ni Dios", y los fastos de ganar la Eurocopa de ese mismo verano maquillaron la situación. Hasta llegar a aquel octubre negro donde el paro subió un millón de personas. Casi de un día para otro.

Sólo ahí más de uno vio que iba en serio. Y muchos ni así lo vieron hasta que se llevaron un par de cornadas.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-03/euro-zone-inflation-cools-as-ecb-enters-final-phase-of-cuts

Euro-Zone Inflation Cools as ECB Enters Final Phase of Cuts

Consumer prices rose 2.4% from year ago in February; est. 2.3%
Sixth cut in interest rates since June likely to come Thursday

Euro-area inflation eased, boosting confidence that it’s approaching the 2% target as the European Central Bank enters the last leg of interest-rate cuts.

Consumer prices rose 2.4% from a year earlier in February, down from 2.5% in January, Eurostat said. That’s just above the 2.3% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.



While still elevated, services inflation — which policymakers have been paying particular attention to — dipped to 3.7%. That’s the first major retreat from 4% since April 2024.

The euro extended gains after the slightly higher headline number, rising as much as 0.6% to $1.0439. German bond yields increased further, with the 10-year rate up four basis points to 2.45%.

Monday’s data offer further reassurance to ECB officials who say their price goal will be met sustainably in the months ahead. While focused on that aim, they’re also navigating flimsy economic growth in the 20-nation currency bloc, the threat of US trade tariffs and chaos over Ukraine peace talks.

They’ll take particular comfort from the moderation in the services sector, where they’ve long been predicting some relief as the strong gains in wages sparked by the surging inflation of recent years begin to abate.



National data last week showed diverging trends. Readings in Germany, Italy and Spain held steady either side of the ECB’s target, while France’s sank to 0.9%. But there was widespread evidence of the easing in services.

The ECB has cut rates five times since June and another move is almost certain when it meets this week in Frankfurt. Analysts predict back-to-back steps until the deposit rate — currently 2.75% — reaches 2%. Investors, though, reckon a pause is possible in April.



Views within the Governing Council are diverging. Hawks advocate a more cautious approach, to avoid lowering rates by too much. Others are more concerned that a stuttering economy will drag inflation below 2%.

A major issue is that borrowing costs are nearing neutral levels where they neither restrain nor stimulate economic activity. Investors will be watching this week to see whether the ECB continues describing its stance as “restrictive,” or whether it opts for different language that signals it may take a breather in the months ahead.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/0176c657-ce1a-4e48-94e2-c40a737a94cd

UK distances itself from Emmanuel Macron’s Ukraine ceasefire proposal

Kyiv’s European allies sought to project unity at London summit


From left, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the London summit on Sunday © Neil Hall/EPA/Bloomberg

The UK has distanced itself from a proposal by French President Emmanuel Macron for a limited initial one-month truce between Russia and Ukraine, while Kyiv raised reservations about stopping fighting without security guarantees.

The differences emerged after a showpiece London summit in which Europe’s biggest powers sought to project unity and develop a common plan following a disastrous White House meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Macron said after Sunday’s summit that his idea for a limited, one-month ceasefire “in the air, at sea and on energy infrastructure” would have the advantage of verifying Russia’s intentions. The French president has a record of floating policy ideas to push allies towards agreement.

The UK, which hosted the summit, said Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer wanted to move forward with the peace plan “with momentum”. But Starmer’s allies said the one-month truce was not “a UK plan”.

A British official said: “There are various options on the table, subject to further discussions with the US and European partners, but a one-month truce has not been agreed.”

Macron raised his ceasefire proposal during the summit but did not give explicit details, according to a western official briefed on the discussions. It did not gain agreement from other leaders but neither did anyone speak out against it, the person added.

A second western official briefed on the discussions said it was clear no other leader was enthusiastic about Macron’s idea, including Zelenskyy. “It’s clear Macron pumped things up on this and went overboard,” they said.

UK armed forces minister Luke Pollard also warned on Monday against a pause in the fighting in Ukraine that could enable Russia to regroup.

He told Sky News: “The very real worry that the Ukrainians have is that any short pause in the war simply allows the Russians time to re-arm, regroup and reinvade.”

Zelenskyy has rejected calls for Ukraine to agree an immediate ceasefire in its war with Russia. As he departed the UK from the summit, he said it would be a “failure for everyone” if a cessation of hostilities were not accompanied by detailed security guarantees.

He declined to comment on Macron’s proposal.

The French president told Le Figaro on Sunday that a one-month truce in the air and sea would be easier than overseeing a truce on the ground along the entire front line.

“You have to understand that the front today is equivalent to the Paris-Budapest line. In the event of a ceasefire, it would be very difficult to verify that the front is being respected,” he said.

Macron and Starmer hope a deal would involve US cover for troops from a European “coalition of the willing” deployed to secure any ceasefire in Ukraine.

Starmer said after the summit that while Europe “must do the heavy lifting”, the “effort must have strong US backing”. The European plan would also see Zelenskyy sign a deal with the US to share some of the profits from exploiting Ukraine’s mineral reserves.

That agreement had been intended to be concluded on Friday but was left unsigned after Trump ejected Zelenskyy from the White House following their dispute in the Oval Office.

Lord Peter Mandelson, UK ambassador to Washington, urged Zelenskyy to sign the minerals deal and called on Ukraine and European leaders to give “unequivocal backing to the initiative President Trump is taking” to broker a peace deal.

In comments that Pollard said were not “government policy”, Mandelson told ABC: “Ukraine should be first to commit to a ceasefire and defy the Russians to follow.”

Zelenskyy said he saw no need to make amends following the White House confrontation or to come up with a plan to salvage his relationship with Trump, although he restated his gratitude to the American people.

“If you don’t have an end to the war and you don’t have security guarantees, no one is able to control a ceasefire,” the Ukrainian president said from London’s Stansted airport as he prepared to fly back to Kyiv.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also said on Sunday that “the only thing that we really cannot afford is a peace that does not last”, as she expressed “misgivings” about some of the Franco-British ideas.

[puede ser]

DIALÉCTICA DEL AMO Y EL ESCLAVO - (DEL IMPERIO Y SUS VASALLOS)

Pasó el 28 de febrero y sí que nos dejó un hecho trascendental. Alguien se atrevió a llevar la contraria al mismísimo emperador en el lugar más icónico y mismo centro físico de su poder.

Que Zelenski sea ajusticiado, desamparado o que acabe trabajando en Aquí No Hay Quien Viva importa poco. La mayor parte de los analistas interpretan lo acontecido como que realmente EEUU ha dado la espalda a la UE. Y la UE era el último gran aliado que le quedaba.

El dominio del amo sobre el esclavo ha sido -es- largo y en muchas ocasiones despiadado (Gaza). Pero como nos muestra el pensamiento hegeliano, cuanto mayor es el trabajo del esclavo y el confort del amo, mayor poder adquiere el primero respecto al segundo. El amo ya no sabe trabajar,  vive por encima de sus posibilidades y ya no tiene más fuerza física que sus esclavos.

China, Rusia, Turquía, el mundo árabe y la UE no tienen que hacer nada más que no atacarse entre ellas. El amo se meterá en su habitación y no volverá a salir; sin saber qué está pasando fuera.

De cara a que realmente baje el precio de los pisos a corto plazo... La teoría parece clara: si nos alejamos del modelo de economía basada en deuda impagable de los EEUU y nos acercamos a la planificación central con equilibrio de cuentas germano, caería de cajón la represión del rentismo. Lo que no visualizo es el ritmo que puede tener ese cambio.

-----------
P.S.: a la tercera va la vencida: otra posibilidad es que los EEUU intenten forzar una tercera guerra ("mundial") en territorio europeo; los atentados yihadistas que se suceden parecerían un intento de abrir esa espita, quizá aprovechando la ignominia cometida sobre los gazatíes. El problema es que la población es más difícil de manipular, si no imposible, en estos tiempos de atomización de los medios de comunicación/manipulación.

[Cadavre Exquis]

How the British Broke Their Own Economy
Posted by msmash on Monday March 03, 2025 @01:10PM from the losing-the-plot dept.

Britain, the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, now suffers from its opposite: profound energy shortages and deep affordability crises [non-paywalled link]. A new report titled "Foundations" identifies the root cause -- "it is difficult to build almost anything, anywhere" in the UK.

Housing exemplifies this malaise. Since the 1990s, homeownership among young British workers has halved while housing prices doubled. The 1947 Town and Country Planning Act effectively nationalized development rights, requiring special permission for new construction and establishing restrictive "green belts." Despite Margaret Thatcher's market reforms, British house-building never recovered.

This constrictive policy has stymied potential growth beyond housing, Atlantic reports. Cambridge remains a small city despite biotech breakthroughs that might have transformed it into a major hub. Transit infrastructure languishes -- Leeds is Europe's largest city without a metro system. Energy production has collapsed, with per capita electricity generation now roughly one-third of America's.

Britain faces a self-imposed scarcity crisis. Environmental regulations, while beneficial, created a one-way system where lawsuits easily block development. As co-author Sam Bowman summarized: "Europe has an energy problem; the Anglosphere has a housing problem; Britain has both." The solution requires comprehensive reform-- overhauling the planning system, reducing anti-growth litigation, and encouraging energy production to unlock what the private sector "already wants to do."

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Graduates From Top MBA Programs Are Struggling To Land Jobs
Posted by msmash on Monday March 03, 2025 @11:52AM from the under-pressure dept.

Job placement rates have declined at all top U.S. business schools [non-paywalled source] since 2021, leaving MBA graduates anxious about their expensive degrees' return on investment. Harvard Business School, which produced Wall Street titans like Bill Ackman and Ray Dalio, saw the percentage of graduates without job offers three months post-graduation rise from 4% in 2021 to 15% currently.

Similar trends are evident at Stanford, Chicago Booth, MIT Sloan, and Wharton, where 7% of 2024 graduates lacked offers within three months of completing their programs. Industry experts cited in a Bloomberg report attribute the downturn to tepid white-collar job growth, declining private-sector wages, and high-profile layoffs at companies including Meta and JPMorgan.

Saludos.

[Benzino Napaloni]

DIALÉCTICA DEL AMO Y EL ESCLAVO - (DEL IMPERIO Y SUS VASALLOS)

Pasó el 28 de febrero y sí que nos dejó un hecho trascendental. Alguien se atrevió a llevar la contraria al mismísimo emperador en el lugar más icónico y mismo centro físico de su poder.

Que Zelenski sea ajusticiado, desamparado o que acabe trabajando en Aquí No Hay Quien Viva importa poco. La mayor parte de los analistas interpretan lo acontecido como que realmente EEUU ha dado la espalda a la UE. Y la UE era el último gran aliado que le quedaba.

El dominio del amo sobre el esclavo ha sido -es- largo y en muchas ocasiones despiadado (Gaza). Pero como nos muestra el pensamiento hegeliano, cuanto mayor es el trabajo del esclavo y el confort del amo, mayor poder adquiere el primero respecto al segundo. El amo ya no sabe trabajar,  vive por encima de sus posibilidades y ya no tiene más fuerza física que sus esclavos.

China, Rusia, Turquía, el mundo árabe y la UE no tienen que hacer nada más que no atacarse entre ellas. El amo se meterá en su habitación y no volverá a salir sin saber qué está pasando fuera.

De cara a que realmente baje el precio de los pisos a corto plazo... La teoría parece clara: si nos alejamos del modelo de economía basada en deuda impagable de los EEUU y nos acercamos a la planificación central con equilibrio de cuentas germano, caería de cajón la represión del rentismo. Lo que no visualizo es el ritmo que puede tener ese cambio.

-----------
P.S.: a la tercera va la vencida: otra posibilidad es que los EEUU intenten forzar una tercera guerra ("mundial") en territorio europeo; los atentados yihadistas que se suceden parecerían un intento de abrir esa espita, quizá aprovechando la ignominia cometida sobre los gazatíes. El problema es que la población es más difícil de manipular, si no imposible, en estos tiempos de atomización de los medios de comunicación/manipulación.

Precisamente por lo que dices, es muy difícil que haya una guerra abierta. No es sólo el viejo concepto de la Destrucción Mutua Asegurada. Es que no le interesa a nadie que no sea el mismo que ha agitado el avispero los últimos años. Los mismos chinos ya le han dejado claro al Tío Sam con acciones concretas que están atentos, pero también que no entrarán al trapo con unas pocas provocaciones de niño pequeño.

Trump en este sentido ha avanzado sobre Biden. Es un tipo inestable que hará daño con otras cosas, pero sí tiene claro que EEUU tiene que replegarse y centrarse en sus problemas internos, que no son pocos.

El ritmo que puede tener el cambio del rentismo puede ser súbito. Creo que aún llevará tiempo. Pero a la que se vea que ya no hay suficientes compradores, y sobre todo que hay presiones de las administraciones públicas para pinchar, y que esta vez no hay el secuestro de la economía como en 2008, puede ser rápido.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Graduates From Top MBA Programs Are Struggling To Land Jobs
Posted by msmash on Monday March 03, 2025 @11:52AM from the under-pressure dept.

Job placement rates have declined at all top U.S. business schools [non-paywalled source] since 2021, leaving MBA graduates anxious about their expensive degrees' return on investment. Harvard Business School, which produced Wall Street titans like Bill Ackman and Ray Dalio, saw the percentage of graduates without job offers three months post-graduation rise from 4% in 2021 to 15% currently.

Similar trends are evident at Stanford, Chicago Booth, MIT Sloan, and Wharton, where 7% of 2024 graduates lacked offers within three months of completing their programs. Industry experts cited in a Bloomberg report attribute the downturn to tepid white-collar job growth, declining private-sector wages, and high-profile layoffs at companies including Meta and JPMorgan.

Saludos.

Al hilo de los comentarios que extraje en Menéame, donde se avisaba que se empieza a cambiar despedir 400 curritos por 12 jefes con el mismo ahorro. Los números imagino que son aproximados, pero una diferencia de 33 veces el salario es de locos. Casi nunca hay una diferencia de productividad y responsabilidades tan grande.

Un MBA ya se sabe de sobra que tiene mucho más de negocio para tejer redes de contactos que para aprender algo útil. Mucho estaba tardando en caer algo que generaba señoritos capaces de dar lecciones sin haber estado nunca en las trincheras.

[Saturio]

Como decía ppcc, hay gafes que te hacen perder hasta la camisa si te pones a su lado.

Trump con su reserva de Criptos es uno de ellos. Alguien se habrá hecho de oro a sabiendas de la jugada pero el resto de los que hayan seguido la corriente han sido desplumados.

Market Summary > Bitcoin
86,972.74USD
-7,352.89 (7.80%)today

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

https://x.com/AtlantaFed/status/1896598929564725716

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2025/03/03/67c4bfb2e5fdeacb128b459e.html

Saludos.