Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2025

[pollo]

https://www.elcorreo.com/bizkaia/gobierno-vasco-plantea-rebajar-exigencia-vpo-promociones-20250304094850-nt.html

Saludos.

Si esto no va acompañado con cosas como que las VPO no pueden venderse o mejor aún, que sean en régimen único de alquiler perpetuo, va a servir para poco. Me imagino que si no lo hacen es por decisión consciente.

[asustadísimos]

[Nuevo fracaso de 'Starship':
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIUas-ZHIV8]

[sudden and sharp]

[Hoy sigue la escalada en vertical del EUR/USD.

Ruego que las opiniones sobre el tipo de cambio EUR/USD estén fundadas. La relación entre tipos de interés y de cambio e inflación es lo más difícil de entender.

No somos solo nosotros los que decimos que la política comercial estadounidense tiene el punto de mira en la administración del proceso de depreciación/devaluación del dólar, no en las exportaciones e importaciones —aunque para administrar la superrecesión que trae la Era Cero no le vendría mal a EE. UU. exportar más e importar menos—.

Permítanme una idea clave: «Determinantes financieros de cada tipo de cambio de una moneda base.— En cada 'par' divisa/moneda base, por orden de importancia:
1.º Diferencial de tipos de interés ponderados por el 'riesgo divisa'
2.º Diferencial de inflación
3.º Cómo son las Balanzas de Pagos de ambas soberanías monetarias». 

Otra idea básica: la trinidad imposible de Blundell:
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinidad_imposible

Desde la llamada crisis del petróleo de 1973 y el proceso posterior que culminó con el triunfo del antiinflacionismo, antesala del delirio popularcapitalista de base inmobiliaria, se está diciendo sin cesar que «el dólar está sobrevalorado», es decir, que tiene pendiente su reequilibrio con el resto de monedas del mundo. Solo durante el Pinchazo de la Burbuja 2006-2010 dejó de oírse, aunque no se crean que no se seguía diciendo, imputándose buena parte de estrangulamiento financiero a «lo caro que ha estado el dólar».

Recordemos que el EUR se introdujo en 1999 a 1.1747 USD. Y en el primer año cayó hasta 0.8200 USD. ¡Pero durante el Pinchazo de la Burbuja 2006-2010 llegó a ponerse al doble: ¡¡¡1.600 USD!!! Para situarnos en el 'serpencamelirafante' del S&P500, estábamos en la segunda giba. Después EEUU ha tenido el delirio del resentimiento popularcapitalista: el cuello de la jirafa, los cuernos en fuego y la trompa levantada, levantada es como está una trompa antes de relajarse —proceso que entendemos recién iniciado ahora—, todo para acabar penduleando en valoraciones razonables con un dólar fácil para todo el mundo como corresponde a su condición de moneda hegemónica utilitaria.

'Pro memoria': Hoy (2025), en el mundo hay 179 soberanías monetarias, pero solo 134 monedas, muchas ancladas entre sí o a una tercera, especialmente el dólar estadounidense:
AED | Dírham emiratí
AFN | Afgani afgano
ALL | Lek albanés
AMD | Dram armenio
AOA | Kwanza angoleño
ARS | Peso argentino
AUD | Dólar australiano
AZN | Manat azerbaiyano
BAM | Marco convertible
BDT | Taka bangladesí
BGN | Lev búlgaro
BHD | Dinar bareiní
BIF | Franco burundés
BND | Dólar de Brunéi
BOB | Boliviano
BRL | Real brasileño
BTN | Ngultrum butanés
BWP | Pula botsuano
BYN | Rublo bielorruso
CAD | Dólar canadiense
CHF | Franco suizo
CLP | Peso chileno
CNY | Yuan chino
COP | Peso colombiano
CRC | Colón costarricense
CUP | Peso cubano
CVE | Escudo caboverdiano
CZK | Corona checa
DJF | Franco yibutiano
DKK | Corona danesa
DOP | Peso dominicano
DZD | Dinar argelino
EGP | Libra egipcia
ERN | Nakfa eritreo
ETB | Birr etíope
EUR | Euro
FJD | Dólar fiyiano
GBP | Libra esterlina
GEL | Lari georgiano
GHS | Cedi ghanés
GMD | Dalasi gambiano
GNF | Franco guineano
GTQ | Quetzal guatemalteco
HNL | Lempira hondureño
HTG | Gourde haitiano
HUF | Forinto húngaro
IDR | Rupia indonesia
ILS | Nuevo shéquel israelí
INR | Rupia india
IQD | Dinar iraquí
IRR | Rial iraní
ISK | Corona islandesa
JOD | Dinar jordano
JPY | Yen japonés
KES | Chelín keniano
KGS | Som kirguís
KHR | Riel camboyano
KMF | Franco comorense
KPW | Won norcoreano
KRW | Won surcoreano
KWD | Dinar kuwaití
KZT | Tenge kazajo
LAK | Kip laosiano
LBP | Libra libanesa
LKR | Rupia de Sri Lanka
LRD | Dólar liberiano
LSL | Loti lesothense
LYD | Dinar libio
MAD | Dírham marroquí
MDL | Leu moldavo
MGA | Ariary malgache
MMK | Kyat birmano
MNT | Tugrik mongol
MRU | Uguiya mauritana
MUR | Rupia mauriciana
MVR | Rufiyaa maldiva
MWK | Kwacha malauí
MXN | Peso mexicano
MYR | Ringgit malayo
MZN | Metical mozambiqueño
NAD | Dólar namibio
NGN | Naira nigeriana
NIO | Córdoba nicaragüense
NOK | Corona noruega
NPR | Rupia nepalí
NZD | Dólar neozelandés
OMR | Rial omaní
PAB | Balboa panameño
PEN | Sol peruano
PGK | Kina papú
PHP | Peso filipino
PKR | Rupia pakistaní
PLN | Zloty polaco
PYG | Guaraní paraguayo
QAR | Rial qatarí
RON | Leu rumano
RSD | Dinar serbio
RUB | Rublo ruso
RWF | Franco ruandés
SAR | Rial saudí
SBD | Dólar de las Islas Salomón
SCR | Rupia de Seychelles
SDG | Libra sudanesa
SEK | Corona sueca
SGD | Dólar singapurense
SLL | Leone sierraleonés
SOS | Chelín somalí
SSP | Libra sursudanesa
STN | Dobra santotomense
SYP | Libra siria
SZL | Lilangeni suazi
THB | Baht tailandés
TJS | Somoni tayiko
TMT | Manat turcomano
TND | Dinar tunecino
TOP | Pa'anga tongano
TRY | Lira turca
TWD | Nuevo dólar taiwanés
TZS | Chelín tanzano
UAH | Grivna ucraniana
UGX | Chelín ugandés
USD | Dólar estadounidense
UYU | Peso uruguayo
UZS | Som uzbeko
VES | Bolívar soberano
VND | Dong vietnamita
VUV | Vatu vanuatuense
WST | Tala samoano
XAF | Franco CFA de África Central
XOF | Franco CFA de África Occidental
YER | Rial yemení
ZAR | Rand sudafricano
ZMW | Kwacha zambiano
ZWL | Dólar RTGS​ de Zimbawue]

Es un simple cálculo...

DATOS
---
US - IPC acumulado desde en3ro --->  0,7 %
DE - IPC acumulado desde enero ---> -0,2 %


A 1.1.2025 ---> Eurodolar = 1,0362
A 1.3.2025 ---> "         = 1,0851
---


Así, 100€ eran, a 1 de enero, 103,62$... y a 1 de marzo 108,73$. Casi un 5% de apreciación (4,9286%) en DOS meses.



-----------
[1] https://datosmacro.expansion.com/ipc
[2] https://es.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-historical-data

[tomasjos]

Y mientras tanto los precios de la vivienda siguen disparados, subiendo a ritmo de la burbuja de 2008

https://www.abc.es/economia/precio-medio-vivienda-dispara-2024-vuelve-maximos-20250307090708-nt.html

[conejo]

EUR/USD por periodos presidenciales

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/08a1f7f3-4be2-4f36-959d-4ac57213450b

Crypto prices fall as US strategic reserve plan disappoints traders

Trump passes executive order for bitcoin reserve based on assets forfeited to authorities


Traders hoped the US government would begin buying bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, after Trump ignited hopes with a social media post on Sunday © REUTERS

Cryptocurrency prices fell on Friday as an executive order from President Donald Trump to establish a US strategic bitcoin reserve left investors disappointed the plan would not trigger a wave of large-scale government purchases of digital assets.

The price of bitcoin dropped as much as 6.6 per cent before rebounding slightly to trade around $89,000 after the order, signed late on Thursday, said the reserve would hold only assets that had been forfeited to US law enforcement authorities.

Traders had hoped the US government would begin buying bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, after Trump ignited hopes with a social media post on Sunday. His comments that a reserve could include ethereum and lesser-known cryptocurrencies cardano, solana and XRP sparked a surge in their prices.

A reserve asset is typically a critical resource that can be used in times of crisis. The US has an emergency oil reserve to protect it against supply shocks while many countries have gold reserves.

The White House said it would also establish a national digital assets stockpile of tokens other than bitcoin, without specifying which ones. The government said it “will not acquire additional assets” for the stockpile beyond those obtained through investigations, and may enact “potential sales” from it.

Ethereum, which is the second-biggest crypto token, dropped 4.5 per cent to $2,194. Ada, the token for the cardano blockchain, was down 7.8 per cent to $0.87, solana fell 5.6 per cent to $143 while XRP shed 3.4 per cent to $2.52.

Supporters of a bitcoin reserve have argued the US should build a reserve that could serve as an alternative to the dollar. Bitcoin has been likened to ‘digital gold’ as an asset that cannot be debased by central banks or government policies.

The Trump administration also pledged to look at buying more bitcoin as long as its strategies were “budget neutral and do not impose incremental costs on United States taxpayers”.

“The US will not sell any bitcoin deposited into the Reserve. It will be kept as a store of value. The Reserve is like a digital Fort Knox for the cryptocurrency often called ‘digital gold’,” confirmed David Sacks, the billionaire investor and the White House’s crypto tsar on the social media site X.

Sacks estimated the US had an estimated 200,000 bitcoins, worth around $17.8bn, and promised “full accounting” of the government’s digital asset holdings.

“There is no indication yet of how much, if any, would be acquired nor a timeline,” said Andrew O’Neill, digital assets managing director at S&P Global Ratings, adding that the move “is mainly symbolic”.

Washington’s embrace of crypto comes as the White House is hosting investors and the heads of big US companies including Brian Armstrong of Coinbase and Michael Saylor of Strategy at a summit on Friday, highlighting its acceptance of the industry.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Y mientras tanto los precios de la vivienda siguen disparados, subiendo a ritmo de la burbuja de 2008

https://www.abc.es/economia/precio-medio-vivienda-dispara-2024-vuelve-maximos-20250307090708-nt.html

Pues por si quedaban dudas de que aquí en la piel de toro vamos a nuestro rollo. Lo haríamos igualmente incluso si hubiese amenaza de la tercera guerra mundial.

Eso sí, como en 2008, la ola del pinchazo nos vendrá igualmente, y a muchos les cogerá en fuera de juego. Veremos después qué tal los nuevos movimientos 15-M.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/ec99b3c2-9f4d-4f34-9a01-f97d981313bf

Donald Trump threatens Russia with additional sanctions and tariffs

US president tells Moscow and Kyiv to get to the bargaining table ‘right now’


‘I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia,’ Trump wrote on Friday © AFP via Getty Images

Donald Trump has threatened Russia with additional “large scale” sanctions and tariffs, as the US president shifts to piling pressure on Moscow in an effort to broker a peace deal in Ukraine.

Trump’s comments on Friday come as tensions have eased with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy following a public confrontation in the White House last week, which led to the US suspending military aid and intelligence support to Kyiv.

US and Ukrainian officials are due to meet next week in Saudi Arabia for talks.

“Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

“To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!” he added.

Trump has faced criticism from US allies as well as domestic lawmakers, including some Republicans, for his clashes with Zelenskyy. Concerns are growing that the White House is handing all the leverage to Russia even before direct talks begin between Moscow and Kyiv.

White House officials had previously threatened sanctions on Russia in an effort to push President Vladimir Putin towards the negotiating table, but the US president emphatically renewed that message on Friday.

The White House has not offered any details of the threatened sanctions and tariffs on Russia.

Russia remains under sweeping sanctions imposed by former president Joe Biden, including on its financial services, defence and energy sectors. The US has also targeted top Russian business leaders and oligarchs with sanctions.

The sanctions have cut Russia’s trade surplus by more than half, from $337bn in 2022, the first year of the war, to just $151bn last year, said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. 

The most painful measures were the sanctions against oil exports, which have forced Russian companies to sell at a discount while raising their logistics and financial costs, and financial sanctions that have created cumbersome barriers for Russian companies making international transactions, as well as sanctions on Russia’s airline sector.

The sweeping approach taken by the Biden administration meant that Trump can do relatively little to ratchet up pressure, Prokopenko said. “There’s no sanctions bazooka any more and the US can’t inflict real pain,” she added.

But Trump officials say the sanctions from Biden were ineffective, particularly with respect to Russia’s all-important energy sector.

“A major factor that has enabled the Russian war machine’s continued financing was the Biden administration’s egregiously weak sanctions on Russian energy,” Scott Bessent, the US Treasury secretary, told the Economic Club of New York on Thursday.

He suggested that the Biden administration had held back on imposing more severe sanctions due to “worries about upward pressure on US energy prices during an election season”.

“What was the point of substantial US military and financial support over the past three years, without a commensurate and fulsome sanction support?” he asked.

The White House has previously dangled the possibility of an easing of sanctions on Russia if it reaches a peace deal with Ukraine, and officials have even pointed to business opportunities for US investors in Russia in the event an agreement is reached.

Higher tariffs on Russian imports will have limited impact since the country’s trading with the US has collapsed in recent years. According to the US trade representative’s office, US goods imports from Russia amounted to $3bn in 2024.

[uno]

Baleares propone subir la ecotasa y restringir más las viviendas vacacionales para contener el turismo

El Ejecutivo de Marga Prohens (PP) anuncia las medidas que ahora deberá negociar en el Parlamento autonómico, entre las que también se incluye un nuevo impuesto para coches de alquiler

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-03-07/baleares-propone-subir-la-ecotasa-y-restringir-mas-las-viviendas-vacacionales-para-contener-el-turismo.html

El Gobierno de Baleares ha anunciado este viernes una serie de medidas con las que busca contener la saturación turística en las islas. Las propuestas, que deberá negociar con los distintos grupos para su aprobación en el Parlamento autonómico, incluyen una subida del impuesto de turismo sostenible (ITS, más conocido como la ecotasa), la creación de un impuesto para vehículos de alquiler y nuevas limitaciones para las viviendas vacacionales, entre otras. Esto hace difícil un pacto con Vox, que aseguró que no apoyaría ninguna subida de impuestos, por lo que previsiblemente el Ejecutivo de Marga Prohens (PP) deberá acordar las medidas con la izquierda si quiere sacarlas adelante.

En concreto, el Gobierno autónomo propone que la ecotasa suba entre los meses de junio y agosto, los que concentran la llegada de turistas a las islas. De esta manera, el impuesto de turismo sostenible pasaría de 1 a 2,5 euros por persona y no en el tramo más bajo; y de 4 a 6 euros en el más alto. Con todo, la principal subida se reserva para los cruceristas que hagan escala en alguna de las islas, que en temporada alta deberán abonar una ecotasa de 6 euros por noche, en lugar de los 2 euros que se contemplan actualmente. A cambio, en los meses de enero y febrero no se pagaría ecotasa, y el resto del año se mantienen como hasta ahora.

En cuanto a la creación de un nuevo impuesto a vehículos vacacionales, la idea es compensar así el impacto de las emisiones y que la recaudación se destine a inversiones en transporte público. Este gravamen se prevé tanto para vehículos particulares que circulen de manera temporal menos de seis meses como para vehículos de alquiler sin conductor que no consten en los registros de vehículos no turísticos. La tarifa tendrá una parte fija y una variable en función de las emisiones y el tiempo de estancia, con tarifas que pueden rondar de los 30 a los 85 euros.

Las empresas de alquiler que tengan matriculados sus vehículos en Baleares podrán deducirse íntegro el impuesto de circulación, lo que compensaría el nuevo gravamen; mientras que las navieras cobrarán el impuesto a los vehículos turísticos particulares desplazados a las islas.

Otra de las medidas del Govern pasa por prohibir nuevas plazas de alojamiento turístico en viviendas plurifamiliares, algo que ya se hace en algunas ciudades como Palma. También obligar a los portales comercializadores de estos inmuebles a exigir el número de registro del alojamiento que se alquila como piso turístico (un registro que ya se ha puesto en marcha a nivel estatal y que estará plenamente operativo para verano).

Adicionalmente, la propuesta contempla aumentar las sanciones por la oferta ilegal de apartamentos turísticos en un 25 %, con multas de hasta 500.000 euros. Pero la multa podrá rebajarse en un 80 % si la vivienda sancionada pasa a destinarse al alquiler social o con precio limitado.

Por último, el Ejecutivo de Marga Prohens (PP) sugiere una nueva regulación de zonas saturadas de turismo, que podrán ser declaradas por los distintos consells insulars (consejos insulares) mediante un plan estratégico de actuación para dichas zonas. El Govern balear aspira además a aplicar un régimen extraordinario de modernización de establecimientos turísticos en zonas de reconversión, para impulsar proyectos que favorezcan un nuevo tipo de oferta.

[tomasjos]

https://www.ft.com/content/ec99b3c2-9f4d-4f34-9a01-f97d981313bf

Donald Trump threatens Russia with additional sanctions and tariffs

US president tells Moscow and Kyiv to get to the bargaining table ‘right now’


‘I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia,’ Trump wrote on Friday © AFP via Getty Images

Donald Trump has threatened Russia with additional “large scale” sanctions and tariffs, as the US president shifts to piling pressure on Moscow in an effort to broker a peace deal in Ukraine.

Trump’s comments on Friday come as tensions have eased with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy following a public confrontation in the White House last week, which led to the US suspending military aid and intelligence support to Kyiv.

US and Ukrainian officials are due to meet next week in Saudi Arabia for talks.

“Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

“To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!” he added.

Trump has faced criticism from US allies as well as domestic lawmakers, including some Republicans, for his clashes with Zelenskyy. Concerns are growing that the White House is handing all the leverage to Russia even before direct talks begin between Moscow and Kyiv.

White House officials had previously threatened sanctions on Russia in an effort to push President Vladimir Putin towards the negotiating table, but the US president emphatically renewed that message on Friday.

The White House has not offered any details of the threatened sanctions and tariffs on Russia.

Russia remains under sweeping sanctions imposed by former president Joe Biden, including on its financial services, defence and energy sectors. The US has also targeted top Russian business leaders and oligarchs with sanctions.

The sanctions have cut Russia’s trade surplus by more than half, from $337bn in 2022, the first year of the war, to just $151bn last year, said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

The most painful measures were the sanctions against oil exports, which have forced Russian companies to sell at a discount while raising their logistics and financial costs, and financial sanctions that have created cumbersome barriers for Russian companies making international transactions, as well as sanctions on Russia’s airline sector.

The sweeping approach taken by the Biden administration meant that Trump can do relatively little to ratchet up pressure, Prokopenko said. “There’s no sanctions bazooka any more and the US can’t inflict real pain,” she added.

But Trump officials say the sanctions from Biden were ineffective, particularly with respect to Russia’s all-important energy sector.

“A major factor that has enabled the Russian war machine’s continued financing was the Biden administration’s egregiously weak sanctions on Russian energy,” Scott Bessent, the US Treasury secretary, told the Economic Club of New York on Thursday.

He suggested that the Biden administration had held back on imposing more severe sanctions due to “worries about upward pressure on US energy prices during an election season”.

“What was the point of substantial US military and financial support over the past three years, without a commensurate and fulsome sanction support?” he asked.

The White House has previously dangled the possibility of an easing of sanctions on Russia if it reaches a peace deal with Ukraine, and officials have even pointed to business opportunities for US investors in Russia in the event an agreement is reached.

Higher tariffs on Russian imports will have limited impact since the country’s trading with the US has collapsed in recent years. According to the US trade representative’s office, US goods imports from Russia amounted to $3bn in 2024.

Está desesperado por retirarse de Ucrania. Hoy ha hablado de la carta al líder iraní para llegar a un acuerdo nuclear. Tiene una prisa tremenda. Algo muy gordo debe estar por llegar y quiere que le pille con los asuntos de fuera resueltos.

Obviamente las sanciones a Rusia ya no tienen efecto al haberse desconectado en buena medida de Occidente.

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/powell-says-fed-is-awaiting-greater-clarity-on-trump-policies-before-making-next-move-on-rates.html

Powell says Fed is awaiting ‘greater clarity’ on Trump policies before making next move on rates

*Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank can wait to see how President Donald Trump’s aggressive policy actions play out before it moves again on interest rates.

*“We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity,” the central bank chief said at a policy forum in New York.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/trump-says-hell-sign-order-limiting-public-service-loan-forgiveness.html

Trump to sign executive order limiting Public Service Loan Forgiveness program

President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order excluding certain student loan borrowers from the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program.(...)

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/live-trump-threatens-tariffs-on-canadian-lumber-dairy-one-day-after-pausing-duties-on-canada-mexico-191201221.html

Trump threatens tariffs on Canadian lumber, dairy one day after pausing duties on Canada, Mexico

US President Trump's tariffs are reshaping US trade policy and overhauling decades of free-trade agreements with friend and foe alike.

Here's where things stand with various US trade partners:

Canada and Mexico: Trump's 25% across-the-board tariffs on its US neighbors went into effect on Tuesday, March 4. Just two days later, Trump confirmed the US would pause tariffs on goods and services compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) until April 2. However, Trump said Friday that he could impose reciprocal tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy products as soon as today.

China: Initial 10% on China went into effect in early February, and China retaliated. Trump's second move doubled the rate of tariffs on Chinese imports to 20% from March 4. China has responded with up to 15% duties on US farm goods such as chicken and pork, to start on Monday, March 10.

European Union: Trump has threatened tariffs on the EU in a move that could bring his trade war across the Atlantic.

In February, Trump ordered a 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminum into the US from all countries, set to begin March 12. The trade escalation impacts top trading partners and bolsters industries in US states key to Trump's election.

Trump has also signed a measure that could lead to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners as soon as April 2, aiming to fulfill a frequent campaign promise and raise revenue as Republicans ready a tax and spending bill.

The trade posturing could have ramifications for inflation, with the potential to push prices higher. That, in turn, could influence where the Federal Reserve takes interest rates in the coming months — and years.

[Vipamo]

https://youtu.be/3eh9iZGGey0?feature=shared

PS parece estar haciendo una labor importante de apoyo al Estado ucraniano.

[Derby]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-americans-cant-afford-life-anymore-and-they-just-dont-matter-to-the-economy-like-they-used-to-5c5aaca5

Most Americans can’t afford life anymore — and they just don’t matter to the economy like they used to

Years of elevated prices have strained all but the wealthiest consumers, and low- and middle-income Americans say something needs to change


As lower- and even middle-income Americans feel the impact of inflation and make tough decisions about discretionary spending, they now make up a smaller part of the overall U.S. economy. Photo: MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto

Life for Naomi Burns and her family of six is not easy. She and her boyfriend are raising four children in a small town about an hour from Portland, Ore., largely on his $65,000 annual salary as a traffic-control flagger. Burns mostly cares for their children, but in order to make ends meet, she also earns nearly $1,000 per month from her work on social media and delivering for DoorDash.

“He brings home about $680 a week, and we need something like $1,000 a week just to break even and have grocery money and pay all of our bills,” Burns told MarketWatch, adding that the family does not qualify for public-assistance benefits. “My side hustles are actually what makes it so that we can survive.”

Burns tries to stretch every dollar to maximize their quality of life on the family’s limited income. That means meticulous meal planning, monitoring food sales and using coupons and store points at the local Safeway to keep their grocery bill as low as possible — Burns said she recently got $152 worth of groceries for $20 using coupons and discounts. The family budgets $100 per week for groceries.

On occasion, there’s money left over to go out to a fast-food restaurant for a treat. The four kids usually split three $5.99 meals at Taco Bell or two $5 meals at McDonald’s, for which Burns accumulates rewards points for future discounts. 

Burns said she has no money to spend on herself or to save for the future. She doesn’t wear makeup and has no skin-care routine, for instance, saying, “I just can’t afford it.” As prices have steadily climbed over the last three years, Burns said that no matter how intentional she is with the family’s money, “we go back and forth between barely making enough to be comfortable but not having anything extra, and not making enough.”

For decades, the American consumer has powered not only the world’s biggest economy but the entire global economy. Increasingly, however, low- and even middle-income American consumers have felt the effects of inflation. They are making tough decisions about discretionary spending, like a restaurant meal or an impulse toy purchase, and face even harder choices when it comes to expenses like vacations or cars. As a result, low- and middle-income Americans now make up a smaller part of the overall U.S. economy than they have done in a very long time.

The bottom 90% of earners — those who make less than $250,000 a year — are now responsible for 50.3% of all consumer spending in the country, data from Moody’s Analytics show. Thirty years ago, they accounted for 64% of U.S. spending. As the rich make up an increasing share of the U.S. economy, bolstering overall consumer spending, middle- and low-income Americans cut their spending from fall 2023 to fall 2024, Moody’s found.


As prices have steadily climbed, Naomi Burns said her family is either barely making enough or not making enough. Photo: Credit: Naomi Burns

As a result, some companies have put high earners at the center of their business plans. Carmakers, for instance, have been focusing on more profitable models, pushing up the average price of a new car to almost $50,000 and the average age of new-vehicle buyers to 52, according to data from Cox Automotive.

Having high-income earners, who are less sensitive to prices, driving so much spending has helped keep inflation high, KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk told MarketWatch. In January, inflation came in at 2.6%, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Prices are up 13% over the last three years, based on the consumer-price index, and 23% in the last five years.

While inflation has made life harder for low- and middle-income consumers, their financial picture could get even worse, with tariffs expected to cost the average household $1,200 a year, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The cracks really begin to show for low- and middle-income Americans “when you start losing jobs,” Swonk said, noting that mass layoffs in the federal government have already led to the loss of thousands of jobs and that the Trump administration is proposing cuts to programs that support low-income families.

“That the well-to-do are doing so well financially and thus able and willing to spend strongly has forced the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer to cool off inflation,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told MarketWatch. “The financial brunt of the higher rates has been borne by lower- and middle-income households, at least to date.” 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed to this reality Friday on CNBC. The ”top 10% of Americans are 40% to 50% of consumption. And that is an unstable equilibrium,” he said. “The bottom 50% of working Americans have gotten killed.”

‘I used to love Starbucks or a coffee shop’

Katie Harley, a parent of two children in South Carolina, said that even with a household income of $140,000, her family is cutting back on spending in order to pay down about $20,000 in credit-card debt, as well as student loans and a car loan.

As part of a low-spend year, a popular financial challenge to spend less money, Harley’s family now only eats out twice a week — Mondays at Chick-fil-A and Sundays at a Mexican restaurant — compared with four to five times a week previously. “I used to love Starbucks or a coffee shop,” she said, but she would spend about $8 on each visit. Harley brews her coffee at home now.


To pay off debts, Katie Harley has cut back on thousands of dollars of discretionary purchases each month. Photo: Credit: Katie Harley

She no longer makes impulse purchases at Target, where she used to regularly buy clothes, toys and hair-care products that her family didn’t particularly need. Instead, she now goes to a local buy-and-sell store, where she trades in used clothes for store credit. Harley also canceled subscriptions for streaming services Paramount , Hulu and AppleTV.

As a result, her family is spending thousands of dollars less per month than they did before, Harley said. Fortunately, despite these big changes to their budget, “I really don’t feel like we have gone without” so far, she said.

While each individual observation about low- and middle-income Americans no longer spending like they did in the past — buying fewer burgers and pizzas, holding onto their cars longer, trading down to less expensive vacations — may seem innocuous, together they add up to an overall sense that spending by all but the wealthiest has dropped.

“You are seeing this kind of hollowing out of the economy, in which middle- and lower-income Americans are not enjoying as much,” said Robert Frick, the top economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

A whopping 55% of those in the bottom third on the American income scale say they are doing worse than they were five years ago, a survey of consumer sentiment shows. Meanwhile, some 63% of families in the top third of incomes say they are better off.

Frick noted that the inflation rate for necessities is about twice as high as overall inflation. This has forced middle- and lower-income families to devote a greater share of their income to necessities such as food, rent and transportation — often relying on credit cards for purchases. The pain got worse after temporary government pandemic benefits ran out. Meanwhile, upper-income families have prospered from more secure jobs, low mortgage rates, rising home values and surging retirement funds — giving rise to the term “401(k) millionaire.”

“We’re generally seeing the weakest spending intentions among middle-income consumers overall,” Stephen Rogers, managing director at Deloitte Insights Consumer Industry Center, told MarketWatch. Their intentions to buy most discretionary goods — home furnishings, recreation, clothing, electronics, personal-care items and household goods — “are all significantly weaker compared to 2021,” according to Deloitte surveys this year. 

At the same time, late credit-card payments have climbed sharply over the past two years. The percentage of car-loan payments that are more than 90 days past due has risen to the highest level in at least eight years among Americans in the lowest income bracket, data from the New York Federal Reserve shows.

Gaps are also showing up in savings, possibly reflecting worsening finances for most households, Morning Consult researchers said. High-income adults are covering emergency expenses without debt at higher rates than two years ago, while lower-income households say they feel more pessimistic about their ability to cover an emergency with cash. 

“Going forward, lower-income households may find it more difficult to continue to bear these [emergency] costs, especially at a time when re-heating inflation risks are mounting,” Morning Consult warned in a February report.

Uncertainty is worse for low- and middle-income consumers

On Wall Street, signals have started to emerge that the average American’s budget won’t stretch much further. Restaurant companies including Domino’s, McDonald’s and Bloomin’ Brands have recently told investors that financial pressures on low- and middle- income customers are negatively impacting their businesses, forcing them to focus on value.

In a speech last month, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson said that while retail spending growth was similar across income groups before the pandemic, it has diverged over the last four years. “While, in aggregate, household balance sheets are indeed strong, low- and middle-income households, and those with lower credit scores, may be stretched,” he noted.

The signs of this stress may not be immediately obvious in major economic data reports.

“The people who show up the most in the data are the people doing the best,” said Diane Lim, a director in the U.S. Treasury Department, at a recent conference of the National Association of Business Economics.

While the overall picture remains largely positive — GDP increased 2.8% in 2024 and unemployment remains at a low 4% — the benefits have not been distributed evenly across income groups. Now many Americans have even more reason to worry as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. They are anxious about their jobs, their income and the further erosion of their buying power.

That anxiety showed up in the closely watched Conference Board index of consumer confidence, which sank to an eight-month low in February. The tariffs, which went into effect in early March, now threaten further price increases on everything — from food and gas to housing and cars — as the financial pressures on American households mount.

The uncertainty over Trump’s policies, like igniting a trade war and showing thousands of government workers the door, shows up not only in sentiment, but in people’s spending as well. When future stability is uncertain, “particularly for households that aren’t in as good a shape, we know from the research that they tend to trade down, and they try to hunker down,” said KPMG’s Swonk.

Indeed, Wells Fargo found in a consumer survey that 80% of households earning less than $100,000 plan to cut back on their spending in 2025. Even 57% of high-income households, the survey found, are preparing for the worst and expect to spend less this year.

Those who make less money are being the most intentional, but “Americans are all making real trade-offs,” Michael Liersch, head of advice and planning at Wells Fargo, told MarketWatch.