Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2025

[asustadísimos]

[El anglo ve a Rusia como Spectra... y Spectra es él.]

[asustadísimos]

[¡Matanzas de alauitas en Siria!
Los alauitas son el 15% de la población, un poco más que los cristianos. Es la segunda comunidad religiosa después de los sunitas (58%). Son leales a Bashar al-Ásad.]

[sudden and sharp]

Rusia no se va a quedar con nada

[tomasjos]

Asustadísimos hablaba de que la frontera sur nuestra corría peligro. Hoy el ABC lo saca en portada

https://www.abc.es/espana/militares-diplomaticos-alertan-efecto-trump-ceuta-melilla-20250309040103-nt.html

[tomasjos]

[¡Matanzas de alauitas en Siria!
Los alauitas son el 15% de la población, un poco más que los cristianos. Es la segunda comunidad religiosa después de los sunitas (58%). Son leales a Bashar al-Ásad.]

Recuerdo haber dicho aquí que Latakia iba a ser autónoma o independiente al final de toda la movida siria, bajo protección rusa. Esto podría ser el comienzo del proceso

[Vipamo]

[¡Matanzas de alauitas en Siria!
Los alauitas son el 15% de la población, un poco más que los cristianos. Es la segunda comunidad religiosa después de los sunitas (58%). Son leales a Bashar al-Ásad.]

Quien conoce esa región y su historia avisaba de lo que iba a pasar una vez cayera Assad. Los Alauitas van a ser perseguidos y eliminados hasta el último. Nos llegan imágenes de una crueldad terrible. El gobierno ha enviado escuadrones de la muerte que en estos momentos están cometiendo un genocidio.
Hay un verdadero campo de refugiados que se ha formado en las pistas del aeródromo de Khmeimim, donde todavía quedan fuerzas rusas. Estas están evitando ahora mismo que accedan los batallones del gobierno.
En fin una desgracia y un horror que espero que no pase por debajo del radar de intereses.

Que paséis un feliz domingo todos menos uno.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Asustadísimos hablaba de que la frontera sur nuestra corría peligro. Hoy el ABC lo saca en portada

https://www.abc.es/espana/militares-diplomaticos-alertan-efecto-trump-ceuta-melilla-20250309040103-nt.html

https://www.abc.es/espana/militares-diplomaticos-alertan-efecto-trump-ceuta-melilla-20250309040103-nt.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/66857e1e-a217-4ddd-8332-d9f0f75aa459

Chinese investors privately take stakes in Elon Musk’s companies

Asset managers have been promoting tech mogul’s ties to Donald Trump to lure capital to xAI, Neuralink and SpaceX

Wealthy Chinese investors are quietly funnelling tens of millions of dollars into private companies controlled by Elon Musk using an arrangement that shields their identities from public view, according to asset managers and investors involved in the transactions.

Since Musk was named a key figure in US President Donald Trump’s drive to remake the US government, China-based asset managers have been promoting the pair’s relationship as an enticement to raise capital from rich Chinese. The money is flowing into Musk’s non-public ventures including xAI, Neuralink and SpaceX, the world’s most valuable private company.

The investments are being placed through opaque structures known as special-purpose vehicles, which have the benefit of concealing the investors’ identities, to avoid the ire of US authorities and companies wary of Chinese capital during a nadir in relations between the two countries.

Asset managers behind the deals have told investors that the entities are specifically designed to avoid disclosure.

The use of special-purpose vehicles in financing is commonplace and there is nothing illegal about the arrangements. Still, it raises concerns about the potential for undue influence and conflicts of interest at a time when Musk has unprecedented involvement in US policy, politics and business.

“How can someone in Musk’s position have so many connections to China but still be a good person to reform the US government?” [/colohttps://www.transicionestructural.net/Themes/transicionestructural/images/bbc/bold.gifr]said Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. The influx of Chinese money into Musk’s business empire “adds to this picture that he is more interested in his reputation and his brand in China than he is in American interests”.

The opaque nature of the structures makes it difficult to assess the full scale of Chinese capital flowing into Musk’s private ventures. But three Chinese-backed asset managers told the Financial Times that over the past two years, they had sold Chinese investors more than $30mn worth of shares in SpaceX, xAI and Neuralink, three Musk-controlled private technology companies whose valuations have surged.

All told, SpaceX has raised more than $10bn from investors around the world since its inception in 2002, according to PitchBook.

The inflow of Chinese capital into Musk’s business empire is primarily profit-driven and has little to do with technology transfer or influencing public policy, according to people involved in the transactions.

With a sluggish domestic economy, wealthy Chinese are looking abroad for investment opportunities.

But the structure means that Chinese investors receive limited, if any, information about the company’s financials and performance, unlike the details that are shared with main investors.

While Musk enjoys a warm relationship with Beijing, it has been difficult for the company to take direct investment from China, financial advisers said. Beijing security hawks have criticised SpaceX for its ties to the US military.

“It is not easy for Chinese entities to invest in a prominent US high-tech company like SpaceX,” said Kevin Chen, chief economist of Horizon Financial, a New York-based financial advisory group. “Chinese money is not welcome in many sectors.”

Representatives for Musk, SpaceX, xAI and Neuralink did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

On a recent Wednesday afternoon, hundreds of Chinese investors tuned in to a webinar to hear a representative from Homaer Financial, an asset manager in eastern China, pitch an opportunity to invest in SpaceX for as little as $200,000 per person.

The Homaer official said she expected SpaceX’s valuation to almost triple to $1.1tn within three years, thanks in part to “comprehensive” support from the US government and military that continued placing procurement orders to the space technology company even “in times of distress”.

China’s wealthy began funding Musk’s private ventures in the late 2010s, when the Tesla founder started building an electric-vehicle factory in Shanghai in 2019 to take advantage of the country’s efficient and low-cost supply chains.

The early investments paid off. Homaer said in a social media post in October that a group of its clients had made a 530 per cent return by investing in SpaceX in June 2018, cashing out six years later. 

An investor in Homaer confirmed the figure, adding that he regretted not having invested more. “I knew Musk was a good businessman,” he said. “But I didn’t expect him to be so successful within such a short timeframe.”

In the past two years, Homaer launched three funds to invest in SpaceX and was able to meet its capital raising targets within a few weeks, said a person with knowledge of the matter.

When Beijing imposed restrictions on private companies — including cancelling Jack Ma’s Ant Group IPO and requiring ride-hailing group DiDi Global to delist in the US — the value of Musk’s ventures continued to grow.

“I have more faith in Musk than in most Chinese start-up entrepreneurs, who are struggling to cope with an increasingly state-dominated economy,” said an investor who bought shares in SpaceX through Homaer last year.

Some Chinese have paid a price for openly buying stakes in Musk’s ventures. Leo Group, a Chinese company, made headlines in 2021 when it announced plans to invest $50mn in SpaceX through Tomales Bay Capital, a California-based private equity fund. Less than a week later, Leo’s US partner revoked the transaction, citing SpaceX’s discomfort with public disclosure of the Chinese stake, according to a subsequent legal battle between the two firms.

In response, Chinese have turned to special-purpose vehicles. Asset managers pool investors’ funds into a Cayman Islands-registered entity, which invests the money in US-based funds managed by western private equity firms, which are already existing investors in Musk’s ventures.

The presence of the Chinese funds is not visible in public records of the holdings.  

A person close to Homaer said the firm asked its US partners if they accepted Chinese money. Typically, the terms also require the US partner to liquidate the investment in extreme scenarios such as a military conflict between the two countries.

“Risks do exist because we are not sure how bad US-China relations will become in the next few years,” the person said.

The uncertainty has not stopped wealthy Chinese from taking the deals. While Beijing’s stringent capital controls have limited Musk’s China investors to those with foreign bank accounts, some wealth managers have found options to overcome the barrier.

“China is facing an oversupply of capital and a shortage of high-quality projects,” a New York investment manager seeking to raise capital from China for such investments said. “That is where we fit in.”

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/09/inflation-china-consumer-price-index-drops-below-zero-in-february.html

China’s consumer inflation turns negative for the first time in 13 months

China’s national consumer price index (CPI) in February fell into negative territory for the first time since January last year, according to data published Sunday by the National Bureau of Statistics.

It comes as investors continue to look for signs that Beijing’s stimulus measures can help to boost the country’s struggling economic recovery.

Econmists say China’s growth target of around 5% this year may be challenging to achieve, particularly amid an escalating trade dispute with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.(...)

[asustadísimos]

[Bienvenidos a la Era Cero:

• EE. UU.

«La economía estadounidense va camino de entrar en recesión en los próximos tres meses, según afirmó en una nota Peter Berezin, estratega jefe mundial de BCA Research».

• China

• UE

Esto no ha hecho nada más que empezar. Como siempre pasa con las caídas, la cosa será rápida. ¡Viva el verdadero Capital!]

[asustadísimos]

[Con los bienes de primera necesidad y consumo obligatorio objeto de acaparamiento, retención y racionamiento, hay dos caminos...

• la 'solución' anglo

4 peniques la noche

• el plan

Comprar caro es de tontivano.

Comprar caro es desamparo.]

[asustadísimos]

[En mayo, recesión en EE. UU.]

[muyuu]

Rusia no se va a quedar con nada

depende de si consideras que ahora mismo Rusia "tiene" o "se queda con" Transnistria o Abkhazia. EMO lo más probable es que Rusia mantenga el control de zonas no reconocido pero de facto, al menos a medio plazo. Porque sin una intervención mucho más directa de la UE o Europa, Ucrania es prácticamente imposible que recupere el control de toda la zona con las fronteras de 1991-2014. Y dudo mucho que esa intervención a gran escala se dé

salu2

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/078780dd-16e0-45e4-b281-c70d59cc07ee

The US economy is heading for recession

Donald Trump’s policy agenda is sapping American animal spirits


Tariffs, public sector cost cutting and policy uncertainty have damped confidence and raised financial risk © JUSTIN LANE/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

Happy Sunday. This week I return to the US economy.

The odds of a recession in America rose this week. Still, it is not most analysts’ base case for this year. So, sticking with Free Lunch on Sunday’s contrarian tradition, here’s why the world’s largest economy will succumb to a downturn in 2025.

The argument has two components. First, even before US President Donald Trump’s inauguration, the US economy was weaker than many appreciated. I outlined why in an opinion column in August and in an earlier edition of this newsletter, “Debunking American exceptionalism”.

Second, “Trumponomics” has damped the outlook further by introducing stagflationary forces and financial market risks. That is the focus of today’s newsletter.

Let’s begin with consumers. A reminder: high spending has been propped up by debt and expenditure on essentials such as food, housing and healthcare. Serious delinquencies on credit card balances hit a 13-year high at the end of last year, with steep interest rates increasingly squeezing households.

The White House’s agenda will add insult to injury by lumping taxes on top. The proposed duties on Mexico and Canada (now on pause), plus those already on China, will raise the US effective tariff rate to its highest since 1943, according to the Budget Lab at Yale. It reckons higher price levels could cost households up to $2,000.



This is only a taster; further tariffs are expected. And though the president has a knack for pushing back deadlines, the impact on sentiment is already stark.

Confidence has plunged. Consumers’ inflation and unemployment expectations have spiked. That is an ominous trifecta. Households are still trying to stomach a 20 per cent, post-pandemic rise in the price level. Notably, real consumption fell in January for the first time in nearly two years. Cautious spending behaviour is now more likely.



Next, business. On-and-off tariff and customs rules, broader capriciousness in policymaking and troubled consumers are a potent mix. Import duties are set to raise costs and retaliatory measures will stifle international sales. But the radical uncertainty also impedes businesses’ ability to plan and adapt.

The effects are already showing up in business activity indicators. The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index pointed to a contraction in sales, new orders, exports and employment across manufacturing and services companies in February. Manufacturing construction spending — which surged under the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips Act — has also slowed, with the schemes’ statuses unclear under the new administration.



Corporate outlooks have also dimmed. BCA Research’s capex intentions indicator has fallen into contractionary territory. Historically, that has signalled a slowdown.

Small businesses’ hiring plans are thinning too, according to the latest NFIB survey. The Challenger tracker of planned job cuts jumped a staggering 245 per cent in February.



A reminder: before Trump came in, many overestimated the extent to which America’s “strong” labour market was underpinned by private sector dynamism. Government, healthcare and social assistance account for two-thirds of new jobs created since the start of 2023 (and half of the 151,000 non-farm payrolls added in February). Immigration has also bolstered employment growth since the pandemic.

Then comes the new administration’s objectives. Beyond the impact of policy uncertainty on the private sector, Evercore ISI estimates that Elon Musk’s public sector cost-cutting efforts could shave off a total of half a million US jobs this year. In an extreme scenario, that could reach over 1.4mn.

A planned crackdown on undocumented immigrants, who account for at least 5 per cent of the workforce, will add to the job losses.



Finally, broader financial risks appear more probable (even if their probability is still low) and could drive a tightening in financial conditions.

Matt King, Satori Insights founder, points to potential triggers that could reverse America’s “safe haven” status (in which flights-to-safety are associated with a stronger dollar and lower Treasury yields). “A combination of concerns around fiscal irresponsibility, Fed independence and some of the more extreme proposals . . . as part of a Mar-a-Lago accord might just do the trick,” he said.

The administration’s plans to plug the deficit with tariff revenues (particularly if they are stop-start) and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency are highly questionable. US borrowing costs are already high; fiscal laxity adds to yields. US Treasury demand faces other potential headwinds, such as the forthcoming increase in German Bund issuance. It is easier now to imagine the US becoming caught in a vicious cycle of higher yields and larger debt projections.



Then there are the risks that Trump’s plans lean into: the institutionalisation of crypto, haphazard financial deregulation and potential manipulation of the dollar.

Markets don’t know how to price the uncertainty, just like when Trump was last in office. A rapid re-pricing of political risks could drive sell-off dynamics in bond and equity markets. That may then trigger liquidity problems.

How the Fed will react is also unclear. Given the underappreciated signs of a cooling economy last year, interest rates were too restrictive coming into Trump’s second term.

Now, rates are in a holding pattern. The weakening growth outlook is raising expectations for cuts. But with inflation expectations rising and recent memories of sky-high price growth, the Fed might lean to the cautious side and keep rates high. In that case, the growth outlook would dim further. Indeed, the inflation-growth trade-off is harder for the Fed to assess, raising the risk of an error.



The upshot? Many analysts are cutting their GDP forecasts for this quarter, driven by businesses stockpiling imports in anticipation of tariffs. Most expect this to unwind in the second quarter (although Trump’s stop-start tariffs will continue to incentivise stockpiling). Even then, with slowing activity and sentiment, rising financial risks and an already less-than-dynamic economy, it’s hard to see what could lift the mood and spur growth.

Perhaps Trump’s pro-growth tax cut and deregulation measures? First, they are yet to begin. Second, they will be offset by the anti-growth elements of his policy agenda. Tax cuts will boost profits, but companies’ ability to do anything with the gains will be limited by uncertainty and higher import costs. Slashing red tape can support investment, but monitoring various new tariff regimes and carve-outs is itself a huge additional regulatory burden.

It’s possible that a downturn can be avoided. But that would require Trump to significantly pare back his import duty plans and curb his shoot-from-the-hip style. How likely is that?

[muyuu]

Musk dice que EEUU debería salirse de la OTAN, que es para "defender Europa" y "que se lo paguen ellos" - lleva varios días defendiendo básicamente estas líneas.