PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025

[Saturio]

Una duda.  ¿ por qué son injustos los aranceles?


Saludos

Los aranceles no son injustos.
Lo que pasa es que  todos los fans del libre mercado y en general el liberalismo, deberían estar subiéndose por las paredes.
El libre mercado, el emprededurazgo sin limitaciones burocráticas y toda esa letanía...están en ridícula contradicción con aranceles generalizados para todo Blas.

[Mad Men]

Lo que no veo es que dejen que el USD se devalúe demasiado, lo están usando como arma arrojadiza para negociar, hay muchos países con mucha deuda USA denominada en USD. Creo que un valor de equilibrio EUR/USD a medio plazo (2026) podría estar en torno a 1.10, no tan bajo como 1.60. USA seguirá teniendo que importar en el corto plazo, un dólar demasiado débil podría crear una situación tensa entre su propia población si el decrecimiento "forzoso" fuese demasiado abrupto tras décadas de consumo masivo ...



Saludos.

El otro día se me ocurrió que con Europa igual intenta negociar inversiones directas.

Es lo más sensato. Meterse en una trifulca comercial teniendo superávit es salir escaldado.


Pero lo que interesa es que dada la situación actual, es que la sobrevaloración del pisito es totalmente perjudicial. Y eso es bueno, muy bueno. No se me ocurre ninguna forma en la que el ladrillo pueda mantener su sobrevaloración.

Si no es su casa donde viven, vendan lo que tengan, porque esto no avisará.

Saludos

[senslev]

Bitcoin aguantando. 

[tomasjos]

La banca cae el 10 por cien, mucho más que el resto del IBEX ,que se mueve entre el 3 y el 6.

[Benzino Napaloni]

¿Cuánto caerán las bolsas? Por qué lo de estos días podría ser solo el principio

Subtitulado: esto es solo el comienzo  .

Pues nada, ya estamos en 2008 bis. A disfrutar del veranito, que el otoño será calentito. Y puede que esta vez no haya resistencia ni para llegar al verano.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/0147b09b-e319-453d-9a0c-e8fcce510a18

Federal Reserve’s Powell warns levies will boost inflation and slow growth

Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has warned that Donald Trump’s tariffs will stoke “higher inflation and slower growth” as the president’s plans for steep levies on the US’s trading partners shake global financial markets.

“It is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected,” Powell said in prepared remarks to a conference in Virginia on Friday. “The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”

He also highlighted that risks to unemployment, which has remained subdued in recent months, were rising.

Powell’s remarks come after Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a universal 10 per cent tariff and much bigger duties on many key trading partners has sent markets reeling. Wall Street’s S&P 500 has sustained two days of heavy selling, leaving the blue-chip index on track for its worst week since the pandemic shut large swaths of the economy in 2020.

Trump, prior to Powell’s remarks, said on his Truth Social platform: “This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates.”

Powell stressed that “uncertainty” was high in terms of “what will be tariffed, at what level and for what duration, and the extent of retaliation from our trading partners”.

He said in a later press conference: “It feels like we don’t need to be in a hurry. It feels like we have time,” signalling that the central bank is minded to keep its main interest rate at its current range between 4.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent until there is more clarity about the fallout.

Powell added: “Inflation is going to be moving up and growth is going to be slowing but to me it is not clear at this time what the appropriate path for monetary policy will be.”

He also noted that “while tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent”.

[Cadavre Exquis]

China Imposes 34% Reciprocal Tariffs on Imports of US Goods
Posted by msmash on Friday April 04, 2025 @09:20AM from the how-about-that dept.

China said Friday that it will impose reciprocal 34% tariffs on all imports from the United States from April 10, making good on a promise to strike back after US President Donald Trump escalated a global trade war. CNN:

On Wednesday, Trump unveiled an additional 34% tariff on all Chinese goods imported into the US, in a move poised to cause a major reset of relations and worsen trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.

"This practice of the US is not in line with international trade rules, seriously undermines China's legitimate rights and interests, and is a typical unilateral bullying practice," China's State Council Tariff Commission said in a statement announcing its retaliatory tariffs. Since returning to power in January, Trump had already levied two tranches of 10% additional duties on all Chinese imports, which the White House said was necessary to stem the flow of illicit fentanyl from the country to the US. Combined with pre-existing tariffs, that means Chinese goods arriving in the US would be effectively subject to tariffs of well over 54%.

Saludos.

[tomasjos]

El Dow Jones cae el 3,5% y el Nasdaq el 5%. No hay rebote del gato muerto por ahora, pero queda mucha sesión.

Edito: a las 19:30 El Dow Jones cae el 4,25% y el Nasdaq sigue igual

Edito : a las 20:30 el Dow Jones cae el 4,75% y el Nasdaq cae el 6,5%

[sudden and sharp]

El gato está muy vivo... No sé qué veis vosotros:









 

[Mad Men]

https://youtu.be/UxvJebX7rJk?si=u7ll4raIWXT4uVnt

Me parece muy interesante.

Pd: la traducción es cutre pero se entiende bien.

Saludos

[conejo]

El gato está muy vivo... No sé qué veis vosotros:

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[sudden and sharp]

El gato está muy vivo... No sé qué veis vosotros:

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Es poker.











No ajedrez. (Es un farol.)

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-tariffs-trade-war-04-04-2025/card/private-equity-stocks-feel-market-pain-and-then-some-d2Vfpx7KsBAHzlpTTjgN

Private-Equity Stocks Feel Market Pain—and Then Some

Publicly traded private-equity firms have been among the losers in the tariff-driven market rout.
Shares of Blackstone, Apollo Global Management and KKR were down sharply early Friday, after falling 10%, 13% and 15%, respectively, on Thursday.

Private-equity firms generally represent a leveraged bet on equities. They own companies in sectors across a wide swath of the economy that they used significant amounts of debt to buy. So when markets tumble, shares of private-equity firms tend to fall further.

Shareholders are also worried that a downturn will exacerbate the problem of firms struggling to offload companies and return money to investors. Firms are sitting on 29,000 unsold companies worth $3.6 trillion, many of which were bought at the peak of the market when interest rates were lower, according to Bain & Co. Now they don’t want to accept lower valuations. The dynamic has depressed fundraising.

On the flip side, if global economies are slowing down, or heading into a recession, there could be a buying opportunity for buyout firms.

“History shows clearly that those are the periods when private markets, particularly private equity, outperform by the greatest amount,” said Mario Giannini, executive co-chairman of private markets investment and advisory firm Hamilton Lane.

[Derby]

https://x.com/IsabellaMWeber/status/1907843021082681406