PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/35b0c461-cf6d-49f0-a541-b798415c0c5b

Private equity is more stuck than ever — and secondaries will benefit

Investors with cash during a crisis can benefit, but PE-owned companies tend to have a lot of debt


Investors flush with cash could take advantage of lurching markets © AP

Who benefits when markets lurch? Generally, those sitting on giant piles of cash. Investors who find themselves with dry powder during a crisis can relieve overextended owners of their assets, ease liquidity crunches and hopefully minimise market contagion. All for a price, of course. 

Think, for example, of buyout barons. Private equity firms had $1.6tn of dry powder globally at the end of September 2024, according to PitchBook data. That’s money investors have committed to wire when it is needed for a deal. Finding financing to take out stricken public companies might not be straightforward, but private credit — a corner of the investment world that is also flush with cash — would be on hand to help.



So much for today’s deals. The snag is that yesterday’s may soak up a lot of managers’ attention. True, private equity portfolios are underexposed to import-reliant consumer discretionary and manufacturing companies. These make up 23 per cent of private equity groups’ net asset value, says Neuberger Berman, about half of what these sectors contribute to US GDP. But the bad news is that private equity-owned companies tend to have a lot of debt. The recent trend towards leveraging up at the portfolio level — via so-called NAV loans — only makes this worse.

What’s more, some portfolios look a bit long in the tooth. With IPOs and M&A scarce, buyout firms have found it difficult to exit investments. Big pension and endowment funds — important clients for private equity — had hoped this would be the year they would finally get a serious chunk of money back.

Instead, falling public markets mean the percentage share of their portfolios taken up by private equity has risen to levels some might find uncomfortable. They may also have competing calls on their money: University endowment funds are raising debt amid threats of federal support being revoked. 

With plunging equity markets delaying exits by at least a year, and possibly well beyond, it is not inconceivable that large, cash-strapped investors might try to cajole buyout-firm managers to hold their fire. That, or find someone to take their private equity investments off their hands.

That creates an opportunity for another kind of private equity investor: secondary funds. These buy preloved portfolio companies or take on investors’ stakes in funds. If a pension fund wants cash back and the buyout firm isn’t delivering, secondaries can square the circle.

This increasingly looks like a buyers’ market. The discount to NAV at which secondary funds acquire buyouts has been widening, estimates Preqin, with prices falling to about 75 cents on the dollar. With increasing negotiating power come higher returns: those on secondaries’ most recent vintages have outperformed.



Secondary funds, which have been growing rapidly, will also need to call on dry powder to relieve the pressure on buyout funds. But given the potential opportunity, their investors may be more welcoming of the call when it comes.

[sudden and sharp]

[sudden and sharp]

 

[sudden and sharp]

... y tiro porque me toca.

[patxarana]

[Nunca antes en la historia de la humanidad ha habido un mercado de carísimos activos ficticios inmobiliarios masivo. Es más, siempre la vivienda básica ha sido semigratuita.]

Claro, esto es la primera vez que pasa. Antes la gente se quejaba de vicio:
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huelga_de_alquileres_de_1931

O tal vez la solución es que el mercado se regule solo. Antes había vivienda semigratuita:
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chabolismo_en_Madrid

En cambio, esto fue el capricho de un dictador, una política completamente absurda, puesto que lo que pasa ahora nunca ha pasado antes:
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instituto_Nacional_de_la_Vivienda_%28Espa%C3%B1a%29

---

Ahora en serio. El problema no se va a arreglar solo. La burbuja está pinchando, pero la estructura será la misma y volverá a pasar una y otra vez. El mercado de la vivienda (o si queremos el del suelo) nunca se regula solo. Siempre sobra o siempre falta.

Salir de esta crisis sin los deberes hechos será persistir en el error.

[sudden and sharp]

[Nunca antes en la historia de la humanidad ha habido un mercado de carísimos activos ficticios inmobiliarios masivo. Es más, siempre la vivienda básica ha sido semigratuita.]

Claro, esto es la primera vez que pasa. Antes la gente se quejaba de vicio:
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huelga_de_alquileres_de_1931

O tal vez la solución es que el mercado se regule solo. Antes había vivienda semigratuita:
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chabolismo_en_Madrid

En cambio, esto fue el capricho de un dictador, una política completamente absurda, puesto que lo que pasa ahora nunca ha pasado antes:
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instituto_Nacional_de_la_Vivienda_%28Espa%C3%B1a%29

---

Ahora en serio. El problema no se va a arreglar solo. La burbuja está pinchando, pero la estructura será la misma y volverá a pasar una y otra vez. El mercado de la vivienda (o si queremos el del suelo) nunca se regula solo. Siempre sobra o siempre falta.

Salir de esta crisis sin los deberes hechos será persistir en el error.

Sí, pero tal vez el matiz... es que es en todas partes a la vez.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Ahora en serio. El problema no se va a arreglar solo. La burbuja está pinchando, pero la estructura será la misma y volverá a pasar una y otra vez. El mercado de la vivienda (o si queremos el del suelo) nunca se regula solo. Siempre sobra o siempre falta.

Salir de esta crisis sin los deberes hechos será persistir en el error.

En la crisis de 2008 se "pudo" cargar el muerto sobre los trabajadores porque la pirámide demográfica aún no habia alcanzado el punto crítico del giro. La natalidad ya iba mal, pero aún había más trabajadores que trabajo. Se aplicó un "el que venga detrás que arree" salvaje.

Ahora empieza a ser al revés, empieza a haber más trabajo que trabajadores. Recuerden que les chocaba cuando en IT se avisaba que pasaría esto. Y ahora hasta los hosteleros empiezan a quejarse de la falta de trabajadores.

Si se trata de reindustrializar y evitar perder (más) tejido económico, tiene que haber movilidad geográfica y población. No puede ser que ocurra lo que el compañero Zugzwang nos comenta: que hasta en provincias hay puestos de trabajo que no se cubren porque no compensa. Ni vivir en el sitio, ni la gasolina de desplazarse a diario.


La clave va a estar en si el problema del Artefacto se ve como un obstáculo para la macroeconomía o no. Si resulta que sí, el descabello ocurrirá sí o también.

En Cataluña el cerco se sigue estrechando poco a poco.

[CHOSEN]

Muy bueno lo de esa casa en Arizona por +2 millones de dólares.
Al principio pensé que el precio eran los $235.400 (el sobrecoste)
 

[Saturio]

Efectivamente.








 

[senslev]

https://x.com/yuriymatso/status/1910333247420350846

[BIZIRAUN]

El Euro sube sin parar. Hoy subiendo un 2% respecto al Dólar.
Muchas gracias maestro, por advertirnos.

[asustadísimos]

[Trump ya lleva dos forrándose él o los suyos —si además de una bahorrina no son tontos—:
• la criptomierda suya y de su mujer, luego imitada por el zoófilo; y
• los derivados financieros en los mercados de Deuda y bursátiles, a caballo de la 'yihad' arancelaria  en cuestión de horas suspendida (salvo para China —verdadero objetivo—).

La tercera:
• la 'crypto stablecoin' USD1 emitida por el propio Trump.

Un 'token' es una ficha emitida por un prestador de un servicio, que representa el derecho a recibir la prestación de este: llamada por teléfono, entrada a piscina, autobús, comedor de empresa.

Los actuales 'token' digitales:
• ni son emitidos por prestador de servicio alguno
• ni representan derecho a nada.

Ya vamos mal llamando 'token' a correos electrónicos encriptados para que parezca que funcionan como dinero contante y sonante, pero manejado por nosotros con claves vulnerables, desde nuestros terminalitos informáticos infestados de 'cookies', conectados a internet a través de una o más empresas privadas de luz, teléfono, televisión o análogas, que trabajan con multitud de otras empresas privadas proveedoras, algunas con red satelital, aunque la mayoría rebosantes de becarios con problemas hormonales, laborales y residenciales.

Peor vamos si el creador del 'token', Fulanito de Copas, que está todo el santo día jiñándose libertariamente en el dinero 'fiat', asegura que su mierda de 'token' está 'respaldado' al 100%, precisamente, por la 'asquerosa' moneda 'fiat' en la que se jiña (je, je) y que funciona como lo hace esta (ja, ja, ja), solo que «dentro del ecosistema digital y especialmente en 'economías emergentes'». Entendemos por economías emergentes, además de la argentina, etc., la tuya: el entornito pobretón digitalmente interconectado que se hace llamar fastuosamente 'la comunidad cripto', constituido por estafadores vocacionales y frikis 'enteraos', codiciosos o avaros, no indignados aunque hostiles al 'statu quo'.

Pero vamos pésimo si, además:
• la comunidad 'enterá' reclama regulación para meterse en la estafa;
• dicha regulación incluye la prohibición de que el Estado emita la versión digital de su dinero fiduciario (ni 'fiat' ni leches —un servidor jamás ha trabajado profesionalmente con ese adjetivito tan cursi—); y
• el jefe del Estado, y a la sazón del Gobierno, es un caradura que dice que el mundo estafa a EE. UU. porque le consiente la Hegemonía Dólar, y engaña a sabiendas diciendo que su propia 'cripto stablecoin' es «la» solución a la debilidad estructural del dólar; por cierto, debilidad todavía no llevada a tipos de cambio gracias a guerras por poderes —todas perdidas— y otras lindezas —bréxits, sabotajes a gasoductos, &c.—.

Ojo con las llamadas 'crypto stablecoins' porque:
• ni son cripto
• ni son estables
• ni son monedas.

Espíritu Santo: gracias por el Bien y por bienaventurarnos.]

[berberecho]

Si vosotros supierais que, con abrir la boca y decir prácticamente cualquier idiotez, os podéis meter para el cuerpo unos cientos de miles de dólares, ¿lo haríais?

Como ya dije unos post más atrás:

Decir que cuando baja la capitalización bursátil lo que ha ocurrido es que se ha "evaporado", o que "era humo" es una forma de hablar, rápida pero estrictamente incorrecta. La bolsa no es un agujero negro en el que entra el dinero y cuando las cosas van mal, desaparece sin más.

Lo que ocurre de verdad, es que ese dinero sale del bolsillo de unos (muchos) para entrar en el de otros (pocos). Dinero, no humo.

Diciendo lo primero (que es una forma de hablar) le hacemos el juego a los ganchos. Lo mismo que decir que "se ha perdido la riqueza". Riqueza no había ni cuando compraste, porque compraste muy caro. Lo que se ha perdido es la riqueza del pardillo.

[Derby]

https://www.voronoiapp.com/trade/-Global-Trade-Dominance-US-vs-China-2000--2024-4080

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/cd7c043a-1983-4106-b4f9-13d66f951faf

Oil price plunge puts US shale production in peril

Trade war and Opec output surge create toughest challenge since the Covid-19 pandemic, executives say


North Dakota’s Bakken oilfields are thought to be particularly vulnerable to shutdowns if low oil prices persist © Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

US shale oil producers are facing their gravest threat in years, as a sudden crude price sell-off triggered by Donald Trump’s trade war has pushed parts of the sector to the brink of failure, executives have warned.

US oil prices have fallen 12 per cent since Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement last week, leaving them below the level many producers in Texas say they need to break even — and sparking fears the industry could be forced to idle rigs.

Opec’s recent decision to raise production has also raised alarm bells.

“This reminds me exactly of Covid,” said Kirk Edwards, president of Latigo Petroleum, an independent producer based in Odessa, Texas, referring to the 2020 price crash that brought a wave of bankruptcies across the shale sector.

Then too, oil markets were facing the twin threats of falling demand and new supplies from Opec producers such as Saudi Arabia, which last week announced a plan to increase supplies faster than expected in the coming months.

“We are facing a double whammy again,” said Edwards, adding that if prices did not recover in the next couple of months, there could be “devastating events” in the Permian Basin — the world’s most prolific oilfield and the engine room of the US industry.

Andy De La Rosa, an oilfield services worker based in neighbouring Midland, said there was a sense of unease in the Permian and drew parallels with another previous price crash a decade ago when soaring US production and a flood of Saudi oil left the market awash and sent prices tumbling. 

“Seeing [oil prices in] the 50s, it does worry me, a lot of what’s going on. It reminds me of 2015 when prices crashed,” said De La Rosa, who works for Underdog Wireline. “It has a lot of the same similarities to me and I’m really worried about a global glut with crude . . . at some point more and more people are going to end up getting laid off.”



Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, which owns shares in several shale producers, said the tariff war had created a “bloody mess” that risked scaring investors away from oil and gas businesses.

“Trump wants to get the oil price down to $50 and you will end up with half the number of companies in the industry if that happens,” he said. “It would result in M&A with the strong picking up the pieces of the weaker players.”

The oil sell-off in recent days has been dramatic — and comes alongside huge turmoil in global equity markets triggered by Trump’s decision to launch a global trade war.

The US president on Wednesday said he was pulling back from the harshest levies he had planned, sending stock markets sharply higher. Oil prices also rose, with US marker West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hitting $63 a barrel on Wednesday — but they remain well off the highs this year and deep in the danger zone for many producers.

Analysts said Trump’s decision to leave tariffs on China — the world’s biggest oil importer — would continue to loom over global crude demand prospects.

Bill Farren-Price at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies said: “There were quite a lot of pretty steady expectations for oil demand growth this year. I think they are all now in the bin.”

At less than $60 a barrel, many US oil producers will struggle to turn a profit, especially in some of the country’s ageing basins, forcing them to potentially stop drilling, lay down drilling rigs and cut jobs. 

Rystad Energy said many US shale producers faced break-even costs of $62 a barrel of WTI when debt servicing and dividend payments were included.



The potential demand shock has been worsened by fears that Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s lowest-cost producers, could be poised to make a new move for market share by pumping more oil and allowing prices to drift lower, forcing rival producers out of business.

Opec’s decision to add 400,000 barrels of oil a day to global supplies had put pressure on crude prices even before Trump’s trade war.

The turmoil has also sparked a sell-off in the shares of shale producers, which face higher costs of production than conventional oil drilling. Occidental Petroleum and Devon Energy lost more than 12 per cent of their value in the five days since Trump announced his “reciprocal tariffs”.

The crash is not on the same scale as 2020. Then, the US benchmark briefly traded below zero as the Covid-19 pandemic crushed global demand — sending the shale industry into a deep freeze and causing thousands of job losses as scores of companies filed for bankruptcy.

But the industry has staged a remarkable recovery since then, with Wall Street forcing producers to repair balance sheets and avoid costly drilling sprees. The new era of capital discipline has left producers in better shape to handle a new downturn, analysts say.

US oil production has recovered since the 2020 shock and hit a record of more than 13mn barrels a day in 2024.

But analysts who expected the country to reach even greater volumes this year are now revising production forecasts, with the first decline in output since the pandemic now possible.

S&P Global Commodity Insights said this week that $50 oil could cause production to decline by more than 1mn b/d — a far cry from the Trump administration’s goal of fast output growth to drive down US petrol prices.

Many American oil executives backed Trump in last year’s election but are reeling from the price turn since he entered office. Some executives have grown critical of the White House’s energy strategy.

“This administration better have a plan @SecretaryWright,” Kaes Van’t Hof, president of Diamondback Energy, said in a social media post this week aimed at energy secretary Chris Wright. “The only industry that actually built itself in the US, manufactures in the US, grew jobs in the US and improved the trade deficit (and by proxy GDP) in the US over the past decade . . . smart move.”

Van’t Hof did not respond to a request for comment.

Adrian Carrasco, owner of Premier Energy Services, which is based in the Midland-Odessa region, said he was not panicking because a lot of shale producers hedge the price of oil that they sell for six to 12 months. But he said tariffs would raise costs for the industry.

“It’s a worry, because now their pricing has gone up an additional 25 per cent for buying drill pipe. When that’s going up and your price of oil being purchased is not going up, well, you have to adjust.”