PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025

[CHOSEN]

Rusia no tiene que invadir Ucrania para proyectar su influencia, igual que EEUU tampoco tuvo que hacerlo.
¿Acaso EEUU no proyectó su poder -irresponsablemente- en la zona sin invadirla?
Pues entonces.
La guerra no ha sido contra Ucrania. Fue contra EEUU.
Lo extraño es que haya españoles que no conozcan la historia de su propio país, país cuyas fronteras se extendían hasta el extremo del mismo Atlántico.
México y Venezuela NO existían en el año 1492.
Hoy son los restos de una España que no pudo librarse de unos pocos traidores vendidos a la pujanza económica e influencia anglo.
Es imposible no ver el paralelismo.
Zelensky es un Bolivarillo, pero con la mala suerte de que Rusia si ha podido defenderse, a su manera.
Porque al menos ahora ya si estaremos de acuerdo en que los EEUU proyectan su poder en la región, ¿No?
Tres años han hecho falta, y el reconocimiento explícito en una mesa de negociación bilateral con Rusia.
Tres.

[sudden and sharp]

Bueno, al menos ya es innegable la participación directa de los EEUU en el conflicto.
Tres años han faltado... y aún los habrá con dudas.
Yo incluso diría que Rusia se ha encontrado con una victoria mucho mayor de la inicialmente esperada.
Salió a poner banderillas y acabó de puntillero.

Define "victoria", entonces.

[el malo]

[En relación con...
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2625.msg241700#msg241700
... artículo del FT, en el que se lee que «Bunds and the euro have both benefited from US policy-induced market concerns», entendemos que es demasiado pronto para proclamarlo. Solo estamos empezando. Es lógico que se alarmen los que están encima de los mercados del dinero y capitales, que tienen la sensibilidad a flor de piel. Pero las valoraciones relativas EUR/USD no han cambiado sustancialmente aún. Lo importante es que no estamos en un vaivén, sino empezando un salto de nivel.

¡Qué malas personas son los que salen con que «es el tiempo del oro», como si todas las monedas fueran iguales. No hay datos fiables sobre que China esté vendiendo bonos estadounidenses para pasarse al oro. Sin embargo, se da como un hecho. Lo suelen decir o politiquillos antipolítica o esos 'asesores' financieros que usan la locucioncita 'moneda fiat'. Siempre que oigan estas dos palabras, échense la mano al bolsillo. 'Moneda fiat' es una fábula, un embuste, una patraña. Huele a estafa. Tratan de que odies tu dinero estricto, billetes, monedas y depósitos bancarios, para entregárselo a ellos a cambio de participaciones en sus fondos de inversión; fondos, precisamente, que han obtenido su brillante rácord habiendo estando invertidos en activos financieros estridentes, siempre en dólares, o en deuda de las promociones inmobiliarias de sus hijos y amigos o en acciones no cotizadas de vete a saber qué y dónde. Hay fondos que invierten casi todo el dinero de los fondistas en dar los préstamos que no da la banca de depósitos, para lo que disponen de una red de impresentables, despreciables y miserables especializados en cobrar. Encima, sus gestores tienen la caradura de decir que son «administradores de 'equity'» (neto patrimonial, es decir, Capital), evidentemente, se refieren a tu 'equity', membrillo, no al 'equity' inexistente de las empresitas destinatarias de tu ahorro, casi todas en problemas (si no los tuvieran no tendrían cerradas las puertas de la banca de depósitos). Y se les llena la boca con locuciones como 'reestructuración de activos', 'optimización de carteras', 'recuperación de inversiones', 'búsqueda de pasivo'. Algunos de estos gestores, como en la película El Golpe, harán la maleta una madrugada.

Solo hay que fiarse de quienes usan la locución 'dinero fiduciario'.

Hoy el problema lo tienen los emisores de activos financieros o acciones y participaciones ¡¡¡en dólares!!! Los del euro, no. El euro solo sigue con atención los tropiezos escandalosos que está teniendo y va a seguir teniendo el mundillo dólar; escandalosos, entre otras cosas porque estos traumas son rentabilísimos en términos de derivados financieros para los anglo cuyos tuits o deposiciones gozan de eco mediático (lo circunscribo al anglo porque los proanglo del euro —o del peso— están fuera del circuito de información privilegiada acerca de cuándo se van a anunciar la siguiente barrabasada, aunque alguna excepción habrá —en el caso de $MILEI sabemos que hay españoles estafados—).]


[Si hay dos mundos, uno es 425 millones de personas (AUKUS) y el otro 7.575 [7.000 + 450 (UE) + 125 (Jap)].

China es 1/5 de la humanidad trabajando para que acumule el Capital una sola persona jurídico-pública: su Estado.

EE. UU. es el 5% de la humanidad trabajando para que acumule Capital una élite de individualistas.]

Bueno, esa es la percepción desde fuera (previo férreo control del mensaje por parte del PCCh).

La motivación de los chinos (como en todas partes) es acumular riqueza para ellos mismos, no pasarse todo el día doblando el lomo para el Estado. En el edificio en el que yo vivía en China siempre había aparacados varios Porsches en el garaje (casi todos blancos) y algún que otro Mercedes de alta gama (Clases S y G). Y no vea cómo viven y cómo gastan los chinos con pasta, mucho más ostentosos que sus equivalentes europeos (imagino que como nuevos ricos que son, hacen -mucho- alarde de ello).

La diferencia es que está el Partido detrás impidiendo que la acumulación obscena de riqueza caiga "en malas manos" (en individuos que ponen por delante su ambición personal al bien del Estado). Si no recuerden lo cerca que estuvo Jack Ma de que le expropiaran hasta el último RMB por un pequeño rifirrafe público que tuvo con el PCCh.

Al final se saldó con un Jack Ma doblándo la cerviz y diciendo en rueda de prensa pública que nada está por encima de China y si China creía conveniente quedarse con Alibaba, adelante. El Partido reforzado y Jack Ma héroe nacional. Poco después de aquello se nos permitió a un grupo de occidentales visitar las oficinas de Alibaba y ya eran impresionantes. Hoy deben ser de ciencia ficción.

El Estado es ese policía que controla que las cosas no se vayan de madre (por ahora). También ayuda mucho que tengan pena de muerte para los casos de corrupción. Si en España tuviéramos lo mismo esto sería Singapur.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-drop-trump-takes-aim-powell-2025-04-21/

Wall St tumbles as Trump takes aim at Fed Chair Powell

April 21 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes lost more than 1% each on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump's attacks against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell fueled concerns about the central bank's autonomy and rattled investors grappling with an intensifying trade war.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Friday that Trump and his team would study whether firing the Fed chair was an option, a day after Trump's comments that Powell's "termination cannot come fast enough".

The continued attacks on Powell increased worries about the Fed's independence in setting monetary policy path in the world's largest economy, hitting investor confidence in U.S. assets already diminished by Trump's sweeping trade tariffs.

"The question is whether Powell could get fired. Apparently, Trump doesn't have the power to do that," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank.

"Powell looks like the only one who could counter — and win — against Trump, but the markets could well continue to be the collateral damage."

A case pending before the Supreme Court is being closely watched as a potential precedent for whether Trump can remove Powell.(...)

Tariff worries continued to haunt investors after China's warning against striking deals with the U.S. at Beijing's expense. Fed policymakers also flagged a cloudy interest-rate outlook owing to tariff uncertainty.

Traders are now pricing in about 90 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, according to data compiled by LSEG.

The uncertainty over trade and monetary policy has hit stocks hard this year, with the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab down more than 15% from its February record high.

Company results will be keenly watched this week for clues on how corporations are navigating the uncertainty, as Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab and Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab kick off earnings for the "Magnificent Seven" megacap stocks.


Bar chart showing S&P 500 consensus expected earnings growth for 2025

Netflix (NFLX.O), opens new tab shares rose 2.6% following an upbeat revenue outlook from the streaming giant despite possible economic turbulence.

Capital One Financial (COF.N), opens new tab gained 2.2% after U.S. banking regulators said on Friday that they had approved its $35.3 billion purchase of Discover Financial Services (DFS.N), opens new tab, which advanced 4.3%.

Gold miners rose tracking prices of the safe-haven precious metal , with Newmont (NEM.N), opens new tab adding 2.4%.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 4.28-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, and by a 2.65-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and no new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 10 new highs and 47 new lows.

PD: DEP el Papa Francisco que será recordado por su defensa de los más débiles y los pobres.

[Currobena]

Rusia no tiene que invadir Ucrania para proyectar su influencia, igual que EEUU tampoco tuvo que hacerlo.
¿Acaso EEUU no proyectó su poder -irresponsablemente- en la zona sin invadirla?
Pues entonces.
La guerra no ha sido contra Ucrania. Fue contra EEUU.
Lo extraño es que haya españoles que no conozcan la historia de su propio país, país cuyas fronteras se extendían hasta el extremo del mismo Atlántico.
México y Venezuela NO existían en el año 1492.
Hoy son los restos de una España que no pudo librarse de unos pocos traidores vendidos a la pujanza económica e influencia anglo.
Es imposible no ver el paralelismo.
Zelensky es un Bolivarillo, pero con la mala suerte de que Rusia si ha podido defenderse, a su manera.
Porque al menos ahora ya si estaremos de acuerdo en que los EEUU proyectan su poder en la región, ¿No?
Tres años han hecho falta, y el reconocimiento explícito en una mesa de negociación bilateral con Rusia.
Tres.

Rusia tiene las opciones que le permita China de ganar. Sin sus suministros y la ayuda europea en el mantenimiento de si maquinaria militar ya habría acabado la guerra.


Nadie sabe seguro qué pasará, pero lo más probable es una guerra de desgaste económico que durará años. Es lo que más le interesa a los estados que respaldan a los contendientes: Estados Unidos y China.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/1cd3d21c-a3eb-43a4-b174-cbab1304b282

Dollar and stocks weaken as Trump renews attacks on Fed chair Powell

US president has ramped up criticism of central bank head for not lowering rates sufficiently swiftly




Wall Street stocks and the dollar tumbled on Monday amid mounting uncertainty over the US economy as President Donald Trump renewed his attacks on Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell.

US equities opened lower and the sell-off intensified as Trump took aim at the Fed chair, leaving the blue-chip S&P 500 down 2 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite down 2.4 per cent.

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Monday morning, Trump said Powell, whom he called “Mr Too Late”, should lower interest rates “NOW” to stimulate the economy.

The market moves came after Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said on Friday that Trump would “continue to study” the matter of dismissing Powell after the president claimed the previous day that he had the right to fire the Fed chair.

Trump has repeatedly criticised Powell for not lowering interest rates sufficiently swiftly, while the Fed chair has said he will never be influenced by political pressure.

“If you think that it’s unacceptable for President Trump to be frustrated with the policy history of the Fed, then I think you . . . got some explaining to do,” Hassett told reporters in Washington on Friday, when US markets were closed.

The dollar fell 1.1 per cent to a three-year low against a basket of its key trading partners on Monday, while the euro gained 1 per cent to $1.1508 and the yen strengthened 1.1 per cent to ¥140.36 per dollar.

US sovereign debt remained weaker on the day but had trimmed some of its earlier losses. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries were up 0.03 percentage points to 4.36 per cent after Trump’s latest post. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Thierry Wizman, global foreign exchange and interest rate strategist at Macquarie, said the “flight from the dollar” on Monday was being driven by growing concerns over the Fed’s independence, as well as Washington’s lack of progress on trade deals.

He cited the “worsening” growth outlook in the fall in stocks, adding that the “willingness to rein in US consumer price inflation is ebbing, hence the flight to gold [and] the back-up in long-term [Treasury] yields”.

Yujiro Goto, FX strategist at Nomura Securities, said that the combination of bond sell-offs and currency depreciation at the same time was rare in a major reserve currency market such as the US.

Goto attributed the rise in the yen to concerns over US “stagflation” and “growing distrust in US asset credibility”.

Analysts at CICC, the Chinese investment bank, said in a report on Sunday that domestic US policy uncertainty was leading the dollar and Treasuries to “behave more like risk assets”.

They added that Trump’s recent remarks about Powell “further heightened market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence”.

The Fed has so far kept rates on hold this year after lowering them three times in 2024. Its next meeting is in May.

The Fed sets monetary policy independently of the other branches of government. Any attempt to oust Powell, whose term is scheduled to end in May 2026, or pressure monetary policy could cause further market turmoil in the US, according to investors and analysts.

https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1914315594607866130

[Negrule]

[
PD: DEP el Papa Francisco que será recordado por su defensa de los más débiles y los pobres.

https://x.com/julianmaciast/status/1914280149706490244?s=46

[sargento.algodon]

Buenas tardes, una reflexión sobre extranjeros viniendo y el inmobiliario, con el paso del tiempo. Estoy pensando en los primeros extranjeros (bueno, si excluimos a los yamnaya indoeuropeos) que invirtieron en construir en nuestras costas: los fenicios que se asentaron en Kotinoussa y Erytheia, el poblado de Doña Blanca y el cerro de Chiclana. Ver el tema del inmobiliario como algo que quedará para el estudio de los arqueólogos pone en perspectiva como valorar los pisos actuales.
El primer asentamiento de Gadir fue abandonado no sé sabe porqué, los cartagineses construyeron una nueva ciudad en la isla de enfrente y los romanos ya unieron ambas islas.

Lo cual me recuerda también lo que el cadáver exhibido en el yacimiento de Gadir, fallecido de muerte violenta y dejado allí, de padre fenicio y madre indígena, según me comentó un arqueólogo allí, es posible que hubiera sido dejado allí, en la playa sin enterrar, como advertencia...

Cuando ando cerca de mi trabajo, en el centro de Madrid y escucho diversos idiomas y acentos, salvo el mío, reflexiono que las grandes ciudades españolas ya son como Gadir, una colonia comercial donde se reúnen gentes venidas de muchos lugares, algunos incluso de muy cerca.

[asustadísimos]

[Dinero 'fiat' es como se refieren al dinero fiduciario los cripto-bro y los libertarios porque es peyorativo, es decir, tiene connotación desfavorable. En cambio, fiducia es español y es elogioso.

'Fiat' es un latinajo que da falsa aureola a quien usa la palabra. Son los personajes que cuando terminan de follar dicen: «Tus besos etéreos son como susurros celestiales que iluminan mi corazón palpitante». Es el presente de subjuntivo del verbo 'facere'. Se traduce como, una de tres:
• Hágase
• Que sea hecho
• Se haga

Lo dijo Dios: fiat lux (hágase la luz).

Aunque no tiene nada que ver, suena a Hugo Chavez y su «¡Exprópiese!»: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOjvJAfIMSI

Todo el que dice 'dinero fiat' es un percebe pedorro.]

[Derby]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4775192-warning-these-reits-are-a-dumpster-fire-in-2025

Warning: These REITs Are A Dumpster Fire In 2025

Summary
*We live in a very challenging environment.
*Many REITs are facing severe headwinds.
*Don't buy just anything. Here are some of the worst REITs to buy today.


John Webb

I am very bullish on REITs (VNQ), and this is no secret to anyone who follows me here on Seeking Alpha. I write weekly bullish articles on various REITs, and this is where I am replying most of my capital at the moment.

However, the REIT sector is vast, and not all REITs are worth buying. Today, we will look at four categories of REITs that I am avoiding because they are either too risky or overpriced. Stick till the end as the one may surprise you.

Hotel REITs

The latest data shows that advanced flight bookings from Canadians coming to the US are down 70% year over year, and tourism from Europe is down 20-50% depending on the country.

Foreigners are showing less interest in coming to the US to spend their money there due to the perception that they are not being respected by the current administration.

On top of that, the threats of major tariffs, coupled with big government cuts, could push the economy into a recession.

This is very bad news for hotels, and it explains why most hotel REITs have been selling off lately.


Host Hotels & Resorts

It is the most cyclical sector of the commercial real estate market because it relies on discretionary spending, and there aren't any long-term leases to protect you.

Making matters worse, this is a sector that requires a lot of capex, and it is facing a growing threat from new technologies like Airbnb (ABNB).

This explains why, historically, the hotel REIT sector has been one of the least rewarding of the entire REIT market:


National Storage Affiliates

There will come a point when valuations are low enough to warrant investments into this sector, but we are not quite there yet.

If hotel REITs like Apple Hospitality (APLE) or Host Hospitality (HST) drop by another 10-20%, I will take a closer look.

Mortgage REITs

Mortgage REITs are very popular amongst individual investors because they always offer high dividend yields. To give you an example, AGNC (AGNC) is currently offering a 15% dividend yield!

But if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is, and this is the case here.

Mortgage REITs have performed very poorly over the long run. They would pay big dividends but suffer major capital losses at the same time, resulting in poor total returns:

Jussi Askola, CFA on X: "Most mortgage REITs have been very disappointing over the long run: https://t.co/kAKcXKcGDE" / X


NAREIT

The main reason for this is that they are commonly overleveraged and too heavily exposed to macro factors that are unpredictable and out of their control.

Small changes to interest rates or spreads can make or break their businesses, but it is near impossible to predict major turns in these factors.

Today, especially, the world we live in is very uncertain, and I wouldn't want the success of my investment to depend on what will happen to interest rates next.

In that sense, investing in mortgage REITs feels more like speculating than investing.

I would add that the surge in interest rates is now starting to put severe stress on even the best mortgage REITs. Even Arbor Realty (ABR) was recently forced to cut its dividend, and I suspect that it may need to cut it again in the near term. A lot of their loans are underwater, and they will likely face significant losses before they eventually recover.

I have no interest in this space.

Office REITs

Now, I am not in the camp of people who claim that offices are going obsolete.

I strongly believe that offices are here to stay, and I am saying this as someone who is running a small business entirely remotely.

I have seen and experienced both, so I know firsthand that there are pros and cons to each.

Offices will increase productivity and collaboration in most people, and it is especially important for a growing company that is training new people.

Therefore, offices are here to stay. There is no doubt about that as more and more big companies like Amazon (AMZN) are now bringing their employees back to the office.

But so why am I not buying office REITs?

They have simply recovered too quickly. As an example, SL Green (SLG) has nearly doubled investors' money over the past two and a half years as it has recovered.


SL Green

While offices are here to stay, I still think that the sector will face significant pain for many years to come.

Most companies will keep an office but lease less space going forward.

This has put the office market into a severe state of oversupply, with the highest vacancy rates ever recovered at over 20%.

I expect a lot of the lower-quality buildings to change hands in the coming years as the current owners default on them, and as new owners come in with low bases, they will heavily reinvest in them to compete with the latest Class A properties.

Therefore, REITs like SL Green may have avoided most of the pain so far, but I still expect them to be impacted by the oversupply in the years ahead.

Valuations are just too high when taking this into account. I would much rather invest in other property sectors.

Data Center REITs

This one may surprise you.

It seems as if everyone wants to invest in data centers right now to benefit from the growing use of AI, but there's a problem with this.

Digital Realty announces $350 million note offering - DCD


Digital Realty

Data center REITs are pricey.

Increasingly, many of these AI companies want to build their own data centers.

There is a significant risk of oversupply, especially following the latest news of new AI models requiring far less equipment.

Things are just changing too quickly, and I cannot assess whether today's data centers will still be needed to the same degree 20 years from now.

With so much money being pumped into the sector, valuations so high, and technologies evolving so quickly, I just feel that the risk-to-reward of REITs like Iron Mountain (IRM) isn't attractive.

Closing Note

The nice thing about investing in REITs today is that the entire sector is heavily discounted, and therefore, you don't need to invest in these risky sectors to find good value.

Even things like apartment REITs, industrial REITs, and healthcare REITs are heavily discounted.

[Derby]

https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1914263623658057944

[Derby]

https://eadaily.com/en/news/2025/04/21/kellogg-the-us-is-tired-of-what-is-happening-on-ukraine

Kellogg: The US is tired of what is happening on Ukraine


Keith Kellogg. Photo: AP Photo / Mariam Zuhaib

The US is tired of what is happening on Ukraine, said the special representative of US President Donald Trump Keith Kellogg on Fox News channel.

This is how an associate of the head of the White House reacted to the words of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the United States could withdraw from the negotiation process to resolve the Ukrainian crisis.

"His words were harsh, but they had to be like that because we are tired of what is happening. We have many other issues in the world in which America should take part," Kellogg said, answering the host's question about the possible prospects for resolving the Ukrainian issue.

According to him, the war has been going on for too long, but there is still a possibility of success in the negotiations.

On Saturday, Rubio said that America has been helping Ukraine for a long time, but now it needs to focus on something else. He added that if Kiev and Moscow are serious about peace, then the United States is ready to help, otherwise Washington will "do something else."

In turn, Trump himself threatened to withdraw from the negotiation process if one of the parties sabotaged it.

[asustadísimos]

[Aparte de los hoteles, ¿qué otro subsector inmobiliario depende del gasto personal discrecional y además carece de contratos de arrendamiento a largo plazo que le den estabil¡dad?]

[Derby]

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump

[asustadísimos]

[En el frente de Pokrovsk, Ucrania ha perdido su...

Coque: combustible sólido, ligero y poroso que resulta de calcinar ciertas clases de carbón mineral.

EE. UU. está abriendo la bocaza para entonar el ahí te quedas, Contreras.

Está claro que intenta descafeinar la entrañable relación entre China y Rusia. Pero eso es o etapa Fálica o, ya, etapa Genital freudianas.

Ahora, tras el desamparo del Paritorio Oval ('ovum', huevo), estamos entrando en la etapa Oral. ¿Cuál era la siguiente fase, anterior a las citadas?, que no me acuerdo.

Me pregunto el porqué del Contreras. Quizá sea porque el interlocutor gusta de llevar la contraria y es un dictadorzuelo testarudo.

Coque, es que se dice 'coke' en inglés, como sabe muy muy bien el tipo.]