PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/13345125/05/25/reaccion-tardia-de-red-electrica.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/energia/noticias/13345319/05/25/red-electrica-endurece-los-requisitos-a-la-industria-para-evitar-nuevos-apagones.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/energia/noticias/13344641/05/25/asi-ha-evitado-industria-un-golpe-adicional-a-los-grandes-consumidores-de-electricidad.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20250503/page/6/textview

España y Portugal investigarán de forma conjunta las causas del corte eléctrico

https://www.eleconomista.es/energia/noticias/13344273/05/25/el-suroeste-se-convierte-en-el-epicentro-de-los-vertidos-de-renovables.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/energia/noticias/13345314/05/25/asi-fue-la-semana-en-que-el-sistema-electrico-espanol-se-fracturo-por-el-apagon.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/energia/noticias/13345348/05/25/espana-ha-sido-el-primer-pais-en-declarar-el-maximo-nivel-de-alerta-energetica.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/actualidad/noticias/13345324/05/25/el-kit-domestico-de-supervivencia-cuesta-cerca-de-420-euros.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/13345232/05/25/el-estrepitoso-fracaso-de-corredor-para-gestionar-su-pasion-por-las-renovables.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-03/short-sellers-bet-against-private-credit-lenders-credit-weekly

Short Sellers Bet Against Private Credit Lenders

Hedge funds are betting that trade wars, a shrinking economy and rising strain among borrowers will begin to hit private credit in the US. So far, the gamble’s paying off.

Short sellers have made about $1.7 billion on paper so far this year from wagers against seven of the biggest direct lenders, including Apollo Global Management Inc., Ares Management Corp. and Blue Owl Capital Inc., according to data compiled by S3 Partners LLC.

While direct lenders have touted tariff-induced volatility as a chance for them to grab a larger slice of the debt market, their share prices have fallen in recent months on policy and economic uncertainty. Adding to the headwinds, the International Monetary Fund warned last month of concern among market participants that borrowers’ deteriorating credit quality has not been reflected in the industry’s loan valuations.

Alternative asset managers are “very exposed if we do have a recession. If company revenue falls, cash flow falls which means leverage goes up and free cash flow goes out the window,” said Scott Roberts, a senior managing partner at Belvedere Direct Lending Advisors.

Ares and Apollo declined to comment. A spokesperson for Blue Owl directed Bloomberg to the company’s most recent earnings call, in which Co-Chief Executive Officer Marc Lipschultz noted that choppy credit markets can give companies more incentive to borrow from private lenders.

S3 says there’s evidence that ebbing volatility has led to profit taking recently by the short sellers, who borrow stock and sell it in the expectation of buying it back at a lower price later.



Vulnerable Borrowers

Market participants are also worried about fierce competition between private credit funds pushing down returns, and that a focus on loans to weaker and smaller companies exposes them to borrowers most vulnerable to a recession. Many direct lenders have never been through an extended downturn, they add, making it harder to know how the loan books will perform.

Others are more optimistic. Business-development companies, a type of private lender, are “low-levered vehicles, so they have solid embedded capital cushions if recession does hit and they have to mark down their portfolios,” said Clay Montgomery, vice president in Moody’s Ratings’ private credit team.

Shares of asset managers have broadly been weakening this year. Firms like Apollo and Ares have private equity units, and any short sales could be tied to a bet against the outlook for other money management businesses.



But valuations in direct lending remain a concern. Just 40% of private credit funds reporting data to the US Securities and Exchange Commission use third-party appraisals, the Bank for International Settlements pointed out last year.

“There’s substantial evidence that suggests direct lenders — through optimism and/or self-interest — are camouflaging problem loans, postponing defaults and bankruptcies, leading to potential over-statement of loan valuations, portfolio yields, and fund returns,” Jeffrey Diehl and Bill Sacher of Adams Street, which manages $62 billion of assets, wrote in a report last week.

They raised particular concerns about loans issued on the assumption that borrowers would pay their interest in cash, but were then changed to let them defer those payments.



Creditors are increasingly turning to these costly notes, known as payment-in-kind. More than a quarter of net investment income at a sample of BDCs tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence was made up of PIK at the end of the fourth quarter of last year.

“PIK loans are often valued surprisingly high, with approximately 75% valued at over 95 cents on the dollar by the end of September,” EY wrote in a report last month. “This discrepancy raises doubts about the consistency of valuations, especially when compared to similar loans in the public market, which are often valued lower.”

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/13345292/05/25/dos-consejeros-de-cnmc-cambiaron-el-voto-en-la-opa-tras-imponer-a-bbva-garantias-extras.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/13345016/05/25/junts-se-desmarca-del-apoyo-de-soler-cnmc-a-la-opa-de-bbva-y-pedira-al-gobierno-que-la-tumbe.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/13345209/05/25/el-banco-opado-esta-infravalorado-en-700-millones-de-euros-con-el-canje-actual.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/actualidad/noticias/13345465/05/25/junts-ha-reculado-en-sus-ultimatums-al-gobierno-hasta-en-ocho-ocasiones.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/actualidad/noticias/13344905/05/25/sanchez-defendera-la-inversion-historica-para-el-rearme-militar-ante-el-congreso.html

Saludos.

[Mad Men]

Perdonen si me equivoco pero ahí va mi respeto hacia el señor Buffet.

- Debe ser el último Grande que debe quedar. Su visión es la del valor auténtico y ha demostrado que funciona y muy bien. No es ladrillero, ni bitcoinero tampoco. Entiende el valor en mayúsculas. Me da la sensación que pocos inversores entienden su filosofía y es normal en este mundo de inversores de pacotilla. Su filosofía es la de estudiar profundamente una empresa, ver el valor auténtico. Es una persona que vivió la gran depresión, muy sentimental, con dificultades para sociabilizar en público y con una vida humilde

¿No os parece que es lo opuesto de lo que abunda hoy en día?

Saludos

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/energia/noticias/13345342/05/25/milena-roveda-gauss-fusion-tenemos-la-vision-de-hacer-una-especie-de-airbus-o-de-eurofighter-de-la-fusion-nuclear.html

Saludos.

P.D. Aunque, de nuevo, esto debería ir en el hilo de STEM, curiosamente hace un par de días en el canal de YouTube de Colectivo Burbuja colgaron un vídeo en el que Francis Villatoro exponía, en la primera parte del vídeo, cuales han sido los últimos avances que se están produciendo en el campo de la fusión nuclear (así como su escepticismo sobre el que se vaya a poder lograr en un plazo corto de tiempo) y, en la segunda parte, los avances en cuanto a los reactores de fisión basados en torio. Como siempre, es un placer escucharle.

Colectivo Burbuja · 2025.05.02 · Cuánto falta para la fusión nuclear con Francis Villatoro

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/13345197/05/25/las-horas-no-trabajadas-por-bajas-medicas-aumentan-mas-de-un-40-desde-2018.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/13344188/05/25/china-da-el-paso-esperado-y-se-abre-a-entablar-negociaciones-con-eeuu-sobre-los-aranceles.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/13344874/05/25/el-mercado-laboral-estadounidense-se-congela-en-abril.html

https://www.infobae.com/espana/agencias/2025/05/02/la-tasa-de-inflacion-en-la-eurozona-se-mantuvo-en-el-22-en-abril/

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/13344281/05/25/irpf-en-maximos-y-legitimidad-presupuestaria-en-minimos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13344730/05/25/tras-el-apagon-la-calma-el-ibex-cierra-la-semana-sin-un-rumbo-claro-y-con-la-banca-a-la-baja.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13344917/05/25/mayo-arranca-con-timidas-ventas-de-bonos-tras-un-abril-muy-positivo-para-la-renta-fija.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13344490/05/25/la-guerra-de-trump-y-powell-a-examen-la-fed-presionara-al-mercado-en-una-de-las-semanas-mas-intensas-de-mayo.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13344472/05/25/los-diez-primeros-fondos-activos-de-renta-fija-ganan-mas-de-un-15-en-lo-que-va-de-2025.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13344313/05/25/ultima-oportunidad-para-cazar-las-retribuciones-de-merlin-y-neinor.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13343483/05/25/cuentas-remuneradas-para-aranar-hasta-un-509-pese-a-los-ultimos-recortes.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13341644/04/25/como-atrapar-los-mejores-dividendos-de-empresas-europeas-y-globales-a-traves-de-fondos-de-inversion.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13344688/05/25/el-ibex-35-destinara-este-ano-el-mayor-porcentaje-de-los-beneficios-a-los-dividendos-desde-2022.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13342623/04/25/la-banca-se-desliga-del-euribor-sube-un-70-desde-que-el-indice-toco-techo.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13343966/05/25/acciona-energia-vuelve-a-subir-a-lo-mas-alto-del-ranking-esg-de-eleconomistaes.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13341578/04/25/fondos-para-aprovechar-el-valor-oculto-en-las-companias-de-tamano-medio-europeas.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13343251/05/25/wall-street-es-el-gran-perdedor-del-mercado-desde-que-trump-gano-las-elecciones-hace-medio-ano.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/147fddbb-7031-4347-9251-4425614e138d

Chinese exporters ‘wash’ products in third countries to avoid Donald Trump’s tariffs

Asian neighbours wary of becoming staging posts for trade actually destined for US


Logistics companies staff say Chinese goods can be given new certificates of origin at third countries such as Malaysia © Arif Kartono/AFP/Getty Images

Chinese exporters are stepping up efforts to avoid tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump by shipping their goods via third countries to conceal their true origin.

Chinese social media platforms are awash with adverts offering “place-of-origin washing”, while an inflow of goods from China has raised alarm in neighbouring countries wary of becoming staging posts for trade actually destined for the US.

The growing use of the tactic underlines exporters’ fears that new tariffs of up to 145 per cent imposed by Trump on Chinese goods will deprive them of access to one of their most important markets.

“The tariff is too high,” said Sarah Ou, a salesperson at Baitai Lighting, an exporter based in the southern Chinese city of Zhongshan. “[But] we can sell the goods to neighbouring countries, and then the neighbouring countries sell them on to the United States, and it will reduce.”

US trade laws require goods to undergo “substantial transformation” in a country, usually including processing or manufacturing that adds significant value, to qualify as originating there for tariff purposes.

But adverts on social media platforms such as Xiaohongshu offer to help exporters ship goods to countries such as Malaysia, where they will be issued with a new certificate of origin and then sent to the US.

“The US has imposed tariffs on Chinese products? Transit through Malaysia to ‘transform’ into Southeast Asian goods!” said one advert posted this week on Xiaohongshu by an account under the name of “Ruby — Third Country Transshipment”.

“The US has set limits on Chinese wooden flooring and tableware? ‘Wash the origin’ in Malaysia for smooth customs clearance!” it added. A person contacted through the details supplied in the advert declined to comment further.


This furniture maker in Binzhou city in east China’s Shandong province has 70% of its orders from the US © FeatureChina/AP

South Korea’s customs agency said last month it had found foreign products worth Won29.5bn ($21mn) with falsified countries of origin in the first quarter of this year, most of them coming from China and almost all destined for the US.

“We are seeing a sharp increase in recent cases where our country is used as a bypass for products to avoid different tariffs and restrictions because of the US government’s trade policy changes,” the agency said in a statement. “We have found numerous cases where the origins of Chinese products were falsified as Korean.”

Vietnam’s industry and trade ministry last month called on local trade associations, exporters and manufacturers to strengthen checks on origins of raw materials and input goods and to prevent the issuing of counterfeit certificates.

Thailand’s foreign trade department also last month unveiled measures to tighten origin checks on products bound for the US in order to prevent tariff evasion.

Ou of Baitai said that, like many Chinese manufacturers, the company shipped goods as “free on board”, under which buyers took liability for products once they left their departure port, reducing the legal risk for the exporter.

“Customers only need to find ports in Guangzhou or Shenzhen, and as long as [the goods] go there, we have completed our mission . . . [after that] It’s none of our business,” she said.

Salespeople at two logistics companies said they could ship goods to Port Klang in Malaysia, from where they would move items into local containers and change their tags and packaging. The companies had connections with factories in Malaysia that could help issue certificates of origin, said the salespeople, who declined to be named.

“The US must know of it,” said one. “It cannot get too crazy so we are controlling the amount [of orders we take].”

“They [Malaysian customs] are not very strict,” the other salesperson said.

China’s foreign and commerce ministries, and the Malaysian government, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

A consultant who advises companies on cross-border trade said origin-washing was one of the two main methods being employed to avoid Trump’s new levies. The other was mixing high cost items with cheaper goods, so exporters could falsely claim a lower overall cost of shipments, the consultant said. 

The owner of a consumer goods manufacturer based in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan said two domestic industry associations had introduced it to intermediaries who offered “grey area” tariff workarounds.

“Basically I only ship to a Chinese port and they take it from there,” the owner said, adding that the intermediaries had offered to arrange the workaround for just Rmb5 ($0.70) per kilogramme shipped.

“These agencies said small- and medium-sized enterprises like us can weather the tariff hit better because there’s always grey areas,” she said. “I hope it’s true. The US is a big market — I don’t want to lose it.”

The proliferation of efforts to avoid tariffs has caused concern among US business partners. One senior executive at a top 10 independent seller on Amazon said they had observed instances where shipments’ origins had been altered, risking confiscation by US customs authorities.

The executive said they were reluctant to accept offers of assistance from their Chinese suppliers, such as having them act as the “importer of record” into the US and paying tariffs based on the cost of manufacturing rather than the retailer’s higher cost of purchase.

The executive said they worried that a supplier might report a false value. “You’re putting a lot of trust in a Chinese supplier,” they said.

[sudden and sharp]

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