[La reunión de la Fed de mañana y pasado mañana no es una reunión normal. Se va a oficializar la recesión en sentido amplio, pero con
expectativas —no datos reales— de 'inflación rarísima' (la bajada serviría para amunicionarse para cuando el dato sea real); inflación rarísima ('dulce sueño' del superendeudado) inducida por una mezcla teatral y absurda de política arancelaria ultraproteccionista —lo quito/lo pongo— y fantasías anarcocapitalistas que se extienden al cuestionamiento de la independencia real, efectiva de la autoridad monetaria respecto de la fiscal... ¡en el país de la moneda hegemónica!, país que tiene anegado el mundo con su deuda pública, una cuarta parte de la cual vence este histórico 2025, y que por tanto tiene la obligación de dar ejemplo de prudencia.
Yo creo que los tipos van a bajar y que Trump engañará con que es gracias a él; pero ya no podrá echarle la culpa a la autoridad monetaria de la recesión, del cambio de modelo y de la crisis sistémica. Es decir, que Trump no se va a salvar de ser el chivo expiatorio 'en el culo' de Powell. Pero puede ser que sí. Si fuera que sí, se aceleraría el deterioro del dólar.
Esto que estamos viendo no se ha visto jamás. Pero a mí no me sorprende. Forma parte del 'display' resentido popularcapitalista. Imaginen a nuestro jefe del Estado o el de la UE cachondeándose travestido de papa, al tiempo que emite criptomierdas e insultando al BCE.
Aquí, en el artículo que cito a continuación, tienen la opinión de la 'main street'. En el fondo abogan por que la Fed ponga en su sitio al 'joker'. Pero simulan. Están asustadísimos.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-trump-and-investors-will-probably-be-disappointed-by-the-fed-this-week-3c58e146Market Snapshot
Why Trump — and investors — will probably be disappointed by the Fed this weekEven without a rate cut, eyes will be on the Fed this week
By Gordon Gottsegen
Last Updated: May 4, 2025, 5:31 p.m. ET
The Fed held off on cutting interest rates during its past few meetings.The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on May 6 and 7, and while the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates, the meeting will likely be closely watched by both investors and President Donald Trump.
It’s no secret that Trump wants the Fed to cut rates, he’s said so explicitly a handful of times. On Friday he posted an all-caps message on Truth Social saying, “NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!”
There are a few reasons Trump wants the Fed to cut its target rate. Lower interest rates would allow money to move more freely in through the U.S. economy. This could foster economic growth and boost the stock market, two things that could reflect favorably for Trump.
However, the Fed has indicated that it isn’t in a rush to lower rates, putting Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Trump at opposite ends of an argument — and catching investors in the middle of the conflict.
“Has the market priced in a little bit too accommodative of the Fed — given the circumstances surrounding tariffs and economic uncertainties?” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, asked.
That could be painful for investors if stocks are forced to give back some of the sharp gains scored in a nine-day winning streak that saw the S&P 500 +1.47% rally more than 10% and erase the steep losses it suffered after Trump unveiled his tariff plans on April 2.
Why the Fed isn’t likely to cut rates
The Fed initiated its rate-cutting cycle at its September policy meeting last year. It then followed up with two more cuts, one in November and another in December.
However, during the December meeting Powell indicated that there would be fewer rate cuts in 2025. The Fed’s “dot plot” penciled in 50 basis points of cuts in 2025, which was down from the 100 basis points of cuts projected in September. Stocks reacted unfavorably, with the S&P 500 falling nearly 3% that day.
A big reason for the slower pace of rate cuts was due to the shifting economic policy. The Fed was concerned about the effect that higher tariffs and a crackdown on immigration would have on inflation. And since high inflation was the reason the Fed raised interest rates in the first place, the Fed wanted to act from a place of caution, according to minutes from the December meeting. The Fed may have felt like the current rate of 425-450 basis points was a comfortable place to leave rates.
“There’s conflicting opinions on whether we’re at neutral [interest rates] or not — which is the rate that’s neither stimulative nor restrictive,” Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, told MarketWatch. “We’re in the camp that you’re probably in the ballpark of neutral, so more cuts aren’t necessarily needed.”
Samana said that
other Republican economic policies, including tax cuts and deregulation, could also stimulate economic growth and potentially inflationary growth. For that reason, Samana said that the Fed was “happy to sit on their hands.”
When Trump took office in January, he began to deliver on some of those economic promises. Within Trump’s first 100 days, he began sending Immigration and Customs Enforcement to deport migrants living in the U.S. illegally and slowed down the flow of asylum seekers into the country. Trump also announced new tariffs on Canada and Mexico, increased tariffs on China and unveiled sweeping new tariffs on most of the world on April 2.
With many of these policies being relatively new or still coming down the pipe, the effects of them have yet to fully show up in economic data. On top of that, many of the tariffs have been delayed, revised or walked back since their announcement. This uncertainty has made it challenging for the Fed, which likes to use economic data to inform its interest rate decisions.
“
There’s a real bifurcation right now between the so-called ‘hard data’ that’s based on actual numbers that come out of the economy, and the ‘soft data’ which is more like the [sentiment] surveys,” Allen Bond, a portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, told MarketWatch. “
We’ve seen the cracks in the soft data — consumer confidence is weakening, some of the measures of industrial activity are weakening — we haven’t seen too many cracks yet in the hard data.”
How investors have been reacting
On April 4, shortly after Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on most of the world,
Powell said there was no need to hurry when responding to these tariffs. The stock market was falling sharply that day, and Powell’s comments didn’t help. The S&P 500 plunged 6%.
Powell then reiterated his stance during a speech on April 16.
“Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation. The inflationary effects could also be more persistent,” he said.
Powell then added, “For the time being, we are well-positioned to
wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”
Again, stocks fell that day, with the S&P 500 declining 2.2%.
Some steep declines in the S&P 500 have coincided with days Powell said he would keep rates steady.But investors weren’t the only ones listening to Powell’s speeches those days — so was Trump.
On April 17, a day after Powell spoke to the Economic Club of Chicago,
Trump criticized the Fed chair in a post on Truth Social.
“The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, ‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete ‘mess!’” Trump wrote. “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”
Trump spent the next few days lambasting Powell for not cutting rates fast enough, even going as far as telling reporters, “if I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me.”
The conflict between Trump and Powell worried investors because it called into question the independence of the Fed. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 2.4% the day Trump gave those remarks to reporters.
According to Sosnick, the independence of the central bank is one of the things that draws international investors to the U.S. stock market. That independence, and the country’s legal and regulatory framework surrounding markets, has helped contribute to the U.S. stock market exceptionalism, especially compared to countries with more heavy-handed approaches to their markets, like China for instance. But
by planting a seed of doubt about Fed independence, Trump’s remarks may have shaken the confidence that investors have.
Eventually, Trump backed off those comments, saying he had no intention of firing Powell, and markets breathed a sigh of relief.
How that sets us up for the Fed meeting
The S&P 500’s nine-day winning streak, its longest in over 20 years, followed the “fire Powell” decline on April 21. Part of this had to do with developments on trade negotiations, but Sosnick said he believes Trump backing off Powell played a role too.
“I don’t think it’s a coincidence that that’s when the rally found its footing,” Sosnick said.
He said that investors have this idea that
Trump uses the stock market as a barometer of his job performance. But what made the stock market selloff worse was that Trump was willing to double down on tariffs and trade policy even when it was upsetting investors.
“He always seemed to care what the stock market was saying, and then for a brief period there, he didn’t seem too. That was very off-putting,” Sosnick said.
So Trump walking back his statements on Powell may have given investors some reassurance that
Trump was in fact listening to the market, and the timing of this rally leads directly into the next Fed meeting.
“Clearly the magnitude of the recent rally has to reflect a lot of optimism about the potential commentary from Powell. You wouldn’t have a rally like this otherwise,” Sosnick said.
But the optimism may be somewhat unrealistic. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 99.5% chance that the Fed keeps its target rate the same in its May meeting, but is also pricing in three cuts by the end of 2025.
If the Fed doesn’t cut rates in May, investors may be listening to see if Powell says anything about cutting rates in June. However, if the Fed wants to wait to see the effects of tariffs, it may have to hold off until the current 90-day tariff pause ends in July — further kicking the rate-cut can down the road.
While both investors and Trump are hoping for rate cuts, Sosnick envisions two scenarios where the Fed actually cuts rates. The first is where price pressures loosen up enough that the Fed feels comfortable enough cutting rates, which is not a forgone conclusion given Powell’s statements on tariffs and inflation. The second is where the economy weakens enough that it requires the Fed to cut rates.
“The latter is very much a case of ‘careful what you wish for,’” Sosnick said.
Stocks ended the week higher, their second weekly gain in a row. This included nine consecutive trading days of gains for both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.39%. The last time both indexes had a winning streak that long at the same time was in January 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week 3% higher, while the S&P 500 ended 2.9% higher and the Nasdaq Composite was up 3.4%.]
