PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025

[Currobena]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2065552/croatia-tourism-numbers-plunge-holidays


" the last three years tourism prices in Croatia have surged by a whopping 50%. The spike in prices is making Croatia more expensive than two of its biggest rivals - Spain and Greece. Costs in the two Mediterranean countries have risen by only 15-20% over the same period."


Este verano o el siguiente, en nuestras costas.

[Currobena]

Veamos la evolución de los salarios reales:


https://x.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1931693403365937413?t=d0_lvhGFwlQGoaVEocHx1w&s=19

El peor país de la Unión Europea junto con Italia, pero allí los precios inmobiliarios bajan.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-08/yield-hunters-fuel-a-331-billion-wave-of-emerging-bond-sales

Yield Hunters Fuel a $331 Billion Wave of Emerging Bond Sales

Strong demand from yield-hungry investors is driving a surge in developing-world bond sales as borrowers race to secure financing ahead of any further wobbles in global markets.

Since the beginning of the year, emerging-market governments and companies have sold $331 billion in debt denominated in hard currencies like the dollar and euro, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That is the fastest pace in four years and already surpasses the total in the first half of 2024.

Investors have fueled a broad rally in international assets amid questions about the long-standing dominance of US markets, which have sent the value of the dollar down. Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. both forecast that EM assets should gain with a declining dollar, while Societe Generale said local assets in developing nations are going through a “goldilocks” moment.

The extra yield investors demand to hold dollar bonds from emerging countries over US Treasuries has fallen and is inches away from the lowest level since 2020, according to a JPMorgan index. But demand has held up because spreads are tighter in US markets as well.

“If you’re a CFO or treasurer you go when the window is open,” said Omotunde Lawal, head of EM corporate debt at Barings Investment Services. “If US fiscal concerns keep on the top of minds then US yields will push higher — so maybe best to issue now rather than later.”



A lack of clarity about the strength of the US economy is also leading many borrowers to issue bonds quickly in case there is more turmoil ahead, according to Stefan Weiler, the head of debt capital markets for Central Europe, the Middle East and Africa at JPMorgan in London.

“From a borrower perspective, the incentive of being patient has gone,” Weiler said. If there is a US recession, which JPMorgan assigns a 40% probability to, spreads would likely widen, making it more expensive for emerging markets to borrow, he added. “It’s really more about accessing the market when it’s available.”

The strong issuance began early in the year as developing nations around the world moved past a wave of post-pandemic defaults in 2024 and countries from Vietnam to Chile announced new economic reforms.

While there was a slowdown immediately after US President Donald Trump announced global tariffs in early April, causing volatility to skyrocket, the market for emerging bonds bounced back strongly after the threat of harsh levies faded. The lull may be short-lived as the administration is set to review tariff policies in early July.

“EM has proved to be a comparative safe haven over this period,” according to Carmen Altenkirch, an analyst at Aviva Investors. “Fundamentals have continued to improve, and sovereigns are getting rewarded for their prudence.”

High Grade

Investment-grade borrowers have accounted for more than 70% of the total bonds issued this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Mexico landed a record deal at the start of the year, while Saudi Arabia sold $12 billion in a triple-tranche transaction and activity out of China also picked up.

In the Middle East, where most borrowers are investment-grade, funding needs surged amid the collapse in oil prices. The region has seen strong deal activity and will likely account for more than 40% out of all CEEMEA issuance this year, according to Weiler.

The return of Latin American companies, many of whom had not been active in offshore markets, also helped drive volumes higher, said Adrian Guzzoni, head of debt capital markets for the region at Citigroup Inc. He’s expecting full-year volumes for Latin America to surpass last year’s figures.

Some high-yield names, such as Brazil, Peru and Telecom Argentina SA have also recently tapped markets. Kyrgyzstan raised $700 million in its first-ever international bond sale, attracting over $2.1 billion in demand for its five-year notes at a yield of 8%.

But not all junk issuers can take advantage of this window, highlighting the bifurcation in the developing world in times of high uncertainty.

“Higher Treasury yields, trade uncertainty, and lower oil prices place many lower-rated frontier countries at a distance from market access,” said Samy Muaddi, head of emerging-markets fixed income at T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. in Baltimore.



Morgan Stanley strategists are expecting nations like Poland, Romania, Kuwait and Kazakhstan to tap the market soon. Central America countries like Costa Rica and Guatemala may also turn up, said Claudia Calich, head of EM debt at M&G Investment Management.

“If anybody wants to issue, we still have probably a four- to six-week window now,” said Calich. “Otherwise, you have to wait until September.”

[sudden and sharp]

Veamos la evolución de los salarios reales:


https://x.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1931693403365937413?t=d0_lvhGFwlQGoaVEocHx1w&s=19

El peor país de la Unión Europea junto con Italia, pero allí los precios inmobiliarios bajan.

Eso es "average"... esto es "median":

Mean and median income by group of citizenship (population aged 18 and over)
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/ilc_di15/default/table?lang=en

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-08/-most-unloved-bonds-turn-routine-us-auction-into-crucial-test

‘Most Unloved Bonds’ Turn Routine US Auction Into Crucial Test

Global investor pushback against long-term government debt is turning what normally would be a routine US bond auction into one of the most anticipated events on Wall Street this week.

The Treasury is set to sell $22 billion of 30-year government bonds on Thursday, part of its regularly scheduled borrowings. The results, though, will receive special attention because they will offer an instant readout on the scope of market demand at a time when investor appetite for 30-year US debt has soured.

“All the auctions will be viewed through the lens of a test of market sentiment,” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. “It feels like US Treasury 30 years are the most unloved bonds out there.”

Yields on long-term global debt have soared in recent weeks as concern over spiraling debt and deficits led some investors to shun the securities and prompted others to demand a higher premium for the risk of lending to governments.

US 30-year yields touched a near two-decade high of 5.15% last month, and even at 4.94% as of Friday were still more than a half-point above levels seen as recently as March.



Higher yields mean funding pressure at a time when the US is borrowing more and government spending remains rampant. The House-passed version of President Donald Trump’s tax-and-spending bill is forecast by some to add trillions to US budget deficits in the years ahead. Moody’s Ratings lowered its credit score on the US last month.

“We are in a disturbing fiscal trend,” said Fred Hoffman, a former fund manager who turned to academia about seven years ago and is now a professor of finance at Rutgers Business School.

Hoffman said he’ll monitor the results of the auction next week while he’s at his vacation home in Martha’s Vineyard. Details such as the auction “tail” — where yields settle versus the when-issued level — and the extent to which orders exceed the amount of debt for sale will provide clues about demand. Foreign participation will also be in the spotlight.

“If this auction and the next auctions continue to break down with lousy tails and horrible bid-to-cover ratios, then we have problem,” said Hoffman, who discusses debt markets and mechanics in some of his class lectures.

Lackluster demand for a May 21 auction of 20-year bonds — not an investor favorite — was enough to send yields surging that day. A similar performance for the 30-year bond, a global benchmark, would be even more worrisome.

The Treasury will also auction $58 billion of three-year notes on Tuesday and $39 billion of 10-year debt on Wednesday.

To be clear, no one is raising the possibility of a so-called failed auction, and there are backstops embedded in the process to help avoid major dislocations. A network of two dozen primary dealers is required to bid at all auctions.

The recent rise in yields may also draw in buyers. Brandywine’s McIntyre said he recently bought 30-year bonds at a yield of around 5%, a level some see as attractive.

‘Becoming Disconnected’

For many, though, the bigger picture is one of elevated long-term yields for the foreseeable future, even if the outlook for shorter-term securities improves once the Federal Reserve moves closer to cutting interest rates.

Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income says it’s just safer to avoid long-dated Treasuries given they are increasingly linked to political forces rather than monetary policy.

“Look at what’s happening in the long-end rates market: It’s becoming disconnected,” said Peters, who helps oversee $862 billion of assets, in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday. “It’s being driven by risk premium, politics, all these other factors.”

Still, swaps traders are pricing in expectations that the Fed will cut rates by about a half a percentage point in the second half of the year. Fed rate reduction wagers have waxed and waned since December, with the prospect that the Trump administration’s tariffs agenda will reignite inflation serving as the primary catalyst for when traders have adjusted wagers.(...)

[asustadísimos]

[Hoy, día histórico en Madrid:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQFFT_SpCwQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeTAPgRy5KE]


[Las dos grandes estafas 'awake':
• El Ladrillo (facturación falsa...)
• criptos]


[¡Qué grandes sois los falsoliberales-neoliberales!:
• ni Trabajo
• ni Empresa
• ni hijos]

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-06-07/oda-al-capitalismo-salvaje-en-nueva-andorra-os-gusta-pagar-impuestos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/ideas/2025-06-08/seismo-trump-entramos-en-un-mundo-nuevo.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/ideas/2025-06-07/por-que-en-2025-aun-hay-personas-sin-hogar.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2025-06-07/estas-son-las-nuevas-elites-que-dominan-el-mundo-mas-poderosas-e-intervencionistas-que-nunca.html

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2025-06-07/el-credito-hipotecario-repunta-con-los-precios-de-la-vivienda-por-las-nubes-hay-riesgo-de-una-nueva-burbuja.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2025-06-08/la-destruccion-del-liderazgo-tecnologico-de-ee-uu.html

Saluos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2025-06-08/un-tsunami-silencioso.html

https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2025-06-08/anticiparse-a-la-competencia.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2025-06-08/sintomas-de-burbuja-inmobiliaria.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2025-06-09/mohit-kumar-jefferies-china-puede-resistir-mucho-mas-que-trump-ee-uu-tendra-que-recular.html

Saludos.