Autor Tema: PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Veranito 2025 (Leído 231085 veces)

Derby · « **Respuesta #1365 en:** Julio 20, 2025, 16:47:35 pm »

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/06/03/europe-richest-countries-not-willing-join-eu/

asustadísimos · « **Respuesta #1366 en:** Julio 20, 2025, 16:54:36 pm »

[Los Estudiosos son funcionarios del cuerpo de funcionarios de élite de Hacienda. ¿Qué relación tienen con la implementación de los métodos de trabajo de Hacienda actualmente vigentes, es decir, los famosos 'Objetivos'? La 'modernización', ¡ja!, la hizo Felipe, 'despatrimonializando' la Administración Pública (parece ser que antes de que entrara este Franco 'de izquierdas', 'de izquierdas ¡ja!, el Estado 'pertenecía' a sus funcionarios). Pero el desarrollo de la 'modernización' no lo hizo Felipe, sino Aznar (ahora vemos cómo y con quién —insisto en que es lógico porque ni de funcionario de élite de Hacienda se gana como para poder financiar una vida de clase media en Mierdrid—). Aznar también es miembro de dicho cuerpo de élite. El Ministerio de Hacienda está en la c/ Alcalá, ¿y Alcalá-Meco?]

[Dice mi mujer que el «Hacer-Haga», en principio, está bien, pero depende de «qué y para qué». ¿Creen que hay un día en el que Aznar saldrá diciendo «esto no es»? Es decir, ¿creen que Aznar dirá «yo decía Hacer-Haga refiriéndome al bien y a la paz, no al 'lawfare' de la señorita Pepis, al tráfico de influencias, al trinque? No olvidemos que la derecha política española es supergafe.]

[«Madrid Network» está implicada en el caso Montoro & Los Estudiosos. «Madrid Network» es el chiringuito de donde salió Ayuso. Por otra parte, Ayuso ha promocionado como diputado de la Asamblea de Madrid a un personaje relacionado con la trama. Ayuso va a tener que hablar.]

asustadísimos · « **Respuesta #1367 en:** Julio 20, 2025, 17:01:08 pm »

[La noticia que trae Derby en...
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2628.msg246111#msg246111
... es desinformación.

Leemos en internet:
«La Strategic Culture Foundation (SCF) es una plataforma mediática registrada en Rusia que opera desde Moscú».

En el mundo tripolar hay una contradicción superprimaria, una primaria y una secundaria (las demás son terciarias):
— la superprimaria:
• El Anglo vs. China & al. (incl. Rusia oriental)
— la primaria:
• El Anglo vs. UE & Rusia occidental
— La secundaria:
• UE vs. China & al. (incl. Rusia oriental —no la occidental—)]

Derby · « **Respuesta #1368 en:** Julio 20, 2025, 17:31:41 pm »

Ahora la idea de lo USA y sus aliados habría que matizarla mucho...

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/07/michael-hudson-todays-civilizational-conflict.html

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Michael Hudson: Today’s Civilizational Conflict

(...) The real conflict over what kind of economic and political system the Global Majority will have is just gaining momentum. Global South countries and others have been driven so deeply into debt that they have been obliged to sell off their public infrastructure to pay its carrying charges. Recovering control of their natural resources and basic infrastructure requires the fiscal right to impose an economic-rent tax on their land, natural resources and monopolies, as well as the legal right to recover environmental cleanup costs caused by foreign oil and mining firms, and to implement financial cleanup costs (i.e., write offs and cancellation) of the foreign debt burden imposed by creditors who have not taken responsibility to ensure that their loans can be paid under existing conditions.

U.S. evangelistic rhetoric describes the imminent political and economic fracture of the world economy as a Conflict of Civilization between democracies (countries that support U.S. policy) and autocracies (nations acting independently). It would be more accurate to describe this fracture as a fight by the United States and its European and other Western allies against civilization, assuming civilization entails, as it seems it must, the sovereign right of countries to enact their own laws and tax systems for the benefit of their own populations within an international system that has a common set of basic rules and values. What Western ideologues call democracy and free markets has turned out to be an aggressive rentier-financial imperialism. And what they call autocracy is a government strong enough to prevent economic polarization between a super-rich rentier class and an impoverished population at large such as is occurring within the Western oligarchies themselves.

Derby · « **Respuesta #1369 en:** Julio 20, 2025, 17:33:54 pm »

Cita de: asustadísimos en Julio 20, 2025, 17:01:08 pm

[La noticia que trae Derby en...
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2628.msg246111#msg246111
... es desinformación.]

Efectivamente, todos los paises que no quieren formar parte de la UE según el anterior gráfico....están llegando a acuerdos para alinearse con el bloque UE.

Derby · « **Respuesta #1370 en:** Julio 20, 2025, 18:11:02 pm »

https://www.ft.com/content/c9cc2569-8dd6-46ec-839c-6451b8ad6bfd

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The US economy is more fragile than it appears

Jobs, consumers and stock values are at an ominous inflection point

Two-thirds of US jobs created since February have come from less dynamic sectors such as health, government and education © Bloomberg

Welcome back. Donald Trump’s second term is now six months old. For all the fears around the US president’s tariff-raising agenda, those that believed the American economy would do just fine are feeling vindicated by a few recent data points.

In June, jobs growth beat expectations and inflation data showed only modest signs of a tariff-related bump. The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday. The second-quarter earnings season has so far delivered “better than expected” results for America’s largest companies too.

In this week’s edition, I argue that the US economy is far more fragile than these headlines suggest.
First, the jobs market. Recent monthly non-farm payroll data releases have surpassed consensus expectations at the first estimate. This has given the stock market a reason to rally.

But the total NFP number is misleading. Since February the US economy has created 671,000 jobs, two-thirds of which have come from less dynamic sectors including health, government and education.

In June the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payroll diffusion index for the private sector fell below 50, signifying that more sectors are shedding jobs than gaining them. That is a rarity outside of a recession.

Research by Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, suggests the US labour market is close to the point where any further fall in demand could push up the unemployment rate significantly.

“So far, US employers have been largely responding to the high uncertainty and interest rate environment by closing vacancies,” notes Berezin. “But now job openings are closer to normal, it is getting harder for laid off workers to find another job.”

There are also concerns around the quality of America’s jobs data, partly because of falling survey response rates. Monthly NFPs were overstated by an average of 75,000 in 2024.

Indeed, this year’s run of initially better than expected NFPs has been revised down at subsequent estimates. (Revisions are, however, less noticed by the market.)

Second, the housing market. “Property is the most rate-sensitive part of the economy, and as such, it has historically led the economy into recessions,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “This hasn’t happened so far, but with rates remaining stubbornly high, the situation may change.”

Thirty-year fixed mortgages have long been common in America, and the share of new adjustable-rate mortgages has also dropped sharply since the late 2000s. This means the effects of higher interest rates can take longer to filter into the real economy (and data).

But now they are biting. First-time homebuyers are allocating a larger share of their median incomes to mortgage payments than at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006. The share of outstanding mortgages with rates above 6 per cent has jumped in the post-pandemic period.

The volume of unsold new home inventories has risen to its highest since mid-2009 too.

Third, consumption. After fuelling America’s post-pandemic growth spurt, monthly real consumer expenditure has fallen since December 2024.

Low-income households got pinched first: first by high interest rates, and now by price increases linked to tariffs and broader economic uncertainty.

But until now, overall spending has been propped up by richer cohorts — the top 20 per cent of the income distribution (who make over $250,000 annually) is estimated to account for more than 60 per cent of personal outlays, according to Zandi.

This is now changing. “Behind the recent moribund consumer spending data are more cautious well-to-do households,” warns Zandi. “Going forward, price increases from tariffs will hurt those on lower incomes more. But as the tighter economy also catches up on the rich, consumer demand could fall faster.”

Data from Pantheon Macroeconomics shows that households across the income distribution are close to extinguishing the excess savings they built-up during the pandemic (as a result of government support and lockdowns). These cash piles had propped up the recent spending boom.

Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” isn’t expected to deliver much of a further jolt for consumers. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, the legislation will reduce the income of the bottom two quintiles after tax and transfers by 2030. Higher-earning households will gain but mostly indirectly from boosts in corporate profits, which they are also more likely to save than spend.

Fourth, the stock market. The S&P 500 has become increasingly disconnected from real economic variables in the past decade, making it a less useful gauge of the US economy.

“The weight of the Magnificent Seven and wider tech sector in US stock indices has grown larger in the past decade — well above its actual share of America’s GDP,” says Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. “About 40 per cent of earnings now come from outside the country too.”

The S&P 600 — an index of small-cap US firms, which rely more on local economic conditions — has fallen since Trump’s second-term inauguration, while the S&P 500 has risen.

America’s tech and software industry is also relatively shielded from the tariffs that are currently in place (although the administration is working on sectoral levies).

Elsewhere, however, more than 40 per cent of businesses that use imported goods in both the manufacturing or services industry have so far reported a decrease in net incomes, according to a recent New York Fed survey.

Finally, there are more prosaic reasons for the heightened concerns over Trump’s policy plans and the apparent resilience of the US economy.

For starters, the president’s full tariff agenda is not even in force. Right now, according to data from the Yale Budget Lab, the average US effective tariff rate is 16.6 per cent, and from August 1 — the US president’s latest deadline for implementing “reciprocal” levies — it will be 20.6 per cent.

The prevailing rate is roughly seven times higher than where it was last year. But the pass-through of higher prices into the real economy has been restrained by companies drawing down their pre-tariff inventories.

Still, a wedge is opening up between the retail price of tariffed goods and goods unaffected by Trump’s duties, according to data from Harvard Business School’s Pricing Lab. This is harder to pick up in the month-to-month inflation reports, which aggregate a range of imported and non-imported products.

Even if Trump continues to delay tariffs, stockpiles will deplete and prices will ratchet higher based on existing duties. (Analysts expect most inventories to run out over the summer months.)

In other words, the string of solid second-quarter company results are not a good indicator of the potential impact of tariffs on business at large or where the economy might be in the near future.

The S&P 500’s strong valuation also reflects assumptions around the future, not just recent economic data. Berezin notes that optimism around artificial intelligence is acting as a “strong tailwind” for investors. Moreover, after postponing and curbing his tariff threats several times, analysts appear to be pricing in the so-called “Taco” trade, which refers to the narrative that “Trump Always Chickens Out”.

This bullish outlook may not pan out. As I outlined in the April 27 edition of this newsletter, overpriced US stocks risk giving way to a painful correction.

The recent months of uncertainty will also crimp future business activity, even if the president’s tariff plans are watered down again. For instance, BCA Research’s indicator of business investment intentions across the US is in recessionary territory. Hiring plans are down too.

Beneath the headlines then, the US economy is like a frog in boiling water. The jobs, housing and retail markets are decelerating, and are close to a turning point. The optimistic stock market and corporate America’s larger players are shrouding underlying weakness.

The policy environment won’t provide much support either. Uncertainty is keeping the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. The administration might think removing Fed chair Jay Powell is the answer. But as rumours of his sacking recently showed, doing so would push up long-term interest rates and dent overvalued US equities. Nor is Trump’s recently passed fiscal bill projected to deliver a significant uplift for the economy.

If the US president doesn’t step back decisively from his protectionist agenda soon, it is hard to see what prevents this house of cards from crashing down.

asustadísimos · « **Respuesta #1371 en:** Julio 20, 2025, 18:32:02 pm »

[Las últimas dos aportaciones de Derby son 'casi de lectura obligatoria' —'casi' porque las argumentaciones son raras, pero no las conclusiones—:
• el imperialismo anglo ya no es capitalista, sino rentista ('aggressive rentier-financial imperialism');
• el actual proteccionismo anglo mata al anglo.

He añadido un par de párrafos a...
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2628.msg246113#msg246113
... con el porqué de la desinformación. Añado ahora que, en Ucrania, ante la retirada (cínica) del anglo, si la segundona UE sacara pecho y cogiera las riendas de la ofensiva (porque la guerra del Dombás no es defensiva), pasaría lo mismo que con Napoleón y con Hitler, pero sin nadie a quien culpar; y media docena de oreshniks después quedaría instituido el eje Hainan-Vladivostock-Finisterre.]

sudden and sharp · « **Respuesta #1372 en:** Julio 20, 2025, 19:34:26 pm »

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Derby · « **Respuesta #1373 en:** Julio 20, 2025, 20:16:46 pm »

https://www.ft.com/content/881341a6-9b16-4051-abbe-102572868fe2

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London Stock Exchange Group weighs launch of 24-hour trading

Discussions come as bourses race to extend hours amid increasing demand from small investors

Pioneered in the US, longer trading windows have become a hot topic among exchange groups as they seek to modernise © Reuters

London Stock Exchange Group is weighing whether to launch 24-hour trading as bourses race to extend access to stocks amid growing demand from small investors active outside normal business hours.

The group is looking into the practicalities of increasing its trading hours, according to people familiar with the situation, from the technology required to regulatory implications.

LSEG is “absolutely looking at it, whether it means 24-hour trading or extended trading”, one of the people said, adding that the exchange group was “having important commercial, policy and regulatory discussions” about the “ongoing topic”.

Pioneered in the US, longer trading windows have become a hot topic among exchange groups as they seek to modernise, spurred by the rise of younger investors who trade on their smartphones.

The 24-hour nature of cryptocurrency markets, where volumes are booming, has also led bourses to consider extending hours.

LSEG makes most of its income selling financial data to banks, brokers and others, with just 2.7 per cent of its first-quarter revenues this year coming from equities.

But its stock exchange remains at the heart of the City of London and is crucial in providing international investors access to shares in British companies.

The group is considering various aspects of extended trading hours, including the technology required for the change, regulatory questions, the effects on companies with dual listings and the potential impact on liquidity, currently concentrated at the open and closing auction of the trading day.

The exploration is part of wide-ranging discussions into potential new products and services, another person said.

LSEG declined to comment.

A recent rush of applications by big US bourses for round-the-clock trading approvals has sparked a bigger debate about how such operations would work.

While small investors, trading via brokers such as Robinhood, have been enthusiastic users of out-of-hours trading, professional fund managers are still generally wary, worried about additional costs and the regulatory risks involved.

The New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and Cboe Global Markets, which together account for about two-fifths of all on-exchange stock trading in the US, have each applied to the US Securities and Exchange Commission in recent months to extend trading hours.

Their applications follow the in-principle approval last year of 24X, a new 24-hour bourse, although a final green light for its overnight operations has been delayed until the regulator is satisfied that several big industry-wide issues have been ironed out.

The Federation of European Securities Exchanges said in May that while longer trading windows may be beneficial, especially for attracting retail trading, “it remains to be seen whether such models are sustainable or beneficial in the long term”.

Official trading hours have long been a topic of debate, particularly in the US, where West Coast investors, three hours behind New York, are faced with an official close at 1pm.

Time zones mean the US overnight period matches well with Asian daytime hours, where many countries including South Korea, Japan and China have well-established communities of active individual traders.