Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2025

[Derby]

https://www.fastcompany.com/91411617/housing-market-warning-falling-home-prices-federal-reserve-governor-bowman-declines-could-accelerate

Fed Governor Bowman warns of housing market risks: ‘Declines in house prices could accelerate’

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman cautions that falling home prices could accelerate, posing new risks to construction and the economy.


Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman [Photo: Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg via Getty Images]

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman issued a housing market warning during a speech at the Kentucky Bankers Association Annual Convention in Asheville, North Carolina on September 23.

Bowman noted that housing activity has slowed significantly, with declines in single-family construction and sales coinciding with rising inventories and falling house prices in many markets.

“Declines in housing activity, including single-family home construction and sales, have been accompanied by higher inventories of homes for sale and falling house prices, suggesting that housing demand has also weakened,” Bowman said. “Elevated mortgage rates may be exerting a more persistent drag as income growth expectations have declined while house prices remain high relative to rents.”

The result has been persistently low housing affordability—a factor that has kept existing home sales depressed since 2023, stuck near levels last seen in the early 2010s in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

“Given very low housing affordability, existing home sales have remained depressed since 2023, and at levels only comparable with the early 2010s following the financial crisis. I am concerned that, in the current environment, declines in house prices could accelerate, posing downside risks to housing valuations, construction, and inflation,” Bowman cautioned.

Her comments underscore growing unease within the Fed about the housing sector’s trajectory. While the central bank has held interest rates at elevated levels to bring inflation back toward its 2% target, the cost of borrowing has cooled housing demand more deeply than some policymakers expected.

If Bowman is right and a sharper decline in home prices materializes, it could ripple across the economy, weakening household balance sheets and slowing residential construction—a sector that has historically helped pull the broader economy out of downturns. Her remarks suggest that policymakers are increasingly weighing how housing stress could complicate the Fed’s path forward on rates, particularly if falling home values begin to weigh more heavily on consumer spending and confidence.

What’s happening to house prices right now?

According to ResiClub’s analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index, U.S. home prices are down -0.01% year-over-year between August 2024 and August 2025. That rate has decelerated—back in August 2024, the year-over-year national home price growth rate was +2.5%.

As ResiClub has documented, this year we’ve been amid a widespread softening. “Widespread softening” here doesn’t mean home prices are falling in every market—they aren’t. Rather, it means home price growth has decelerated across most markets, and more markets are seeing home price declines compared to a year ago.

On a regional and local level, home price shifts vary significantly right now.

Some regional housing markets in states such as Texas, Florida, Colorado, Arizona, and Louisiana, where inventory has risen above pre-pandemic 2019 levels, are experiencing mild home price corrections. Meanwhile, tight-ish inventory markets in some pockets of the Northeast and Midwest remain resilient-ish, with home prices pushing up a little this spring.

[sudden and sharp]

Tercera subida de rutina en menos de un menos de un mes...

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/13565582/09/25/moodys-sigue-a-sp-y-sube-la-calificacion-de-la-deuda-espanola-a-a3.html







3,1% <---- Dato. No previsión.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/b920c4c4-dcd7-4d5b-9a56-fc5cc1c994c4

US soyabean farmers squeezed as China blocks imports and stockpiles rise

Overseas sales of top US export crop plummet as trade talks between Washington and Beijing stall


John Duffy loads soyabeans to haul them to a storage elevator on his farm in Dwight, Illinois © Scott Olson/Getty Images

Overseas sales of the US’s top farm export have plummeted as China shuns American soyabeans in a “devastating” blow to the country’s farmers.

The new export season for soyabeans has opened with no sales or shipments to China, government data shows — a sharp break from a year ago, when it had already booked 6.5mn tons. Meanwhile, inventories have begun to pile up with the onset of the fall US harvest season.

For decades, more than half of all US soyabeans went to China, the world’s biggest buyer. But this year, as trade talks between Washington and Beijing stall, not a single American soyabean has headed east, leaving farmers struggling to stay afloat as bins fill and prices sag while China turns to record supplies from Brazil.

“We’re up against the clock right now,” says Darin Johnson, president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association and a fourth generation farmer. “Even if we do come to terms on an agreement [with China], it’s just not going to be in time for this harvest.”

Like soyabean farmers across the US, Johnson is staring down a harvest with nowhere to go. Growers are facing “a glut of soyabeans”, he says, the impact of which could be “devastating”.

Soyabeans are primarily used as livestock feed, and also have applications in industrial and consumer manufacturing. Byproducts like soyabean oil can be used to create products from biofuels to firefighting foam.


Soyabean pods awaiting harvest on a farm in Centreville, Maryland this week © Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

The oversupply is driving down prices at a time when the cost of inputs such as fertiliser is also rising due to tariffs. 

Since the administration of President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing has retaliated by halting all purchases of American soyabeans. The move threatens growers across the Midwest with steep losses and could imperil farms that have been in families for generations.

Beyond the economic toll, the disruption carries political weight: soyabean farmers are a key voting bloc, turning the trade dispute into a flashpoint with national implications.



Trump said on Thursday he will use tariff revenue to fund a programme to support US farmers, echoing comments made by agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins to the Financial Times last week.

“We’re going to take some of that tariff money that we made, we’re going to give it to our farmers, who are, for a little while, going to be hurt until the tariffs kick in to their benefit,”Trump told reporters at a signing ceremony in the Oval Office.

In the meantime the crisis hitting farmers risks spiralling. 

“When the ag economy is not doing well, that’s a direct impact to our small rural communities,” said Johnson. “It directly impacts rural America, it impacts the little town that I live in.”


A worker preparing soyabeans for planting at Double G Angus Farms in Tiffin, Iowa in May © Benjamin Roberts/Bloomberg

American growers have been here before.

In 2019, after Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing slashed soyabean imports from the US. The Trump administration launched a $23bn bailout for farmers. In that round, Brazilian farmers were the ultimate beneficiaries. 

“The last time [the US] did this, we lost about 20 per cent market share to Brazil, and that never came back,” said Todd Main of the Illinois Soybean Association.

This time around, Chinese buyers have again turned almost entirely to South America, pushing Brazilian soyabean exports to record highs. Between January and August, Brazil shipped 66mn tonnes to China — three-quarters of its total exports, government data show.

Raphael Bulascoschi, analyst at commodities brokerage StoneX, said: “The effects of China’s boycott of US soyabeans have been highly favourable for Brazilian producers.”


Soyabeans imported from Brazil are unloaded at Longkou Port in Yantai, China © VCG via Getty Images

The administration has also dismantled the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which used to purchase “a lot of surplus agricultural commodities for distribution around the world”, Main said.

In addition to using tariff revenues to support farmers, the administration has also proposed increasing blending quotas for biofuels, which would bolster domestic demand for soyabeans.

While a federal bailout helps in the short run, “it doesn’t help with the permanent loss of market share from expansion in other parts of the world”, said Scott Gerlt, chief economist for the American Soybean Association. Similarly, biofuel blending levels “will not come close to offsetting the export demand”, he said.

“There’s a lot of financial distress out there and the longer China stays off the market, the more that distress is going to grow,” he said, adding that farm bankruptcy numbers were already increasing.

The loyalty of farming communities to Trump also hangs in the balance. 

Farmers want free trade too, Johnson said. “We completely understand that trade deals haven’t been perfect and they need to be negotiated,” he said. “[But] this situation could get pretty dire in a real quick hurry.”

[senslev]

No tengo pruebas pero tampoco dudas. Desde el minuto 1 de la última crisis todas las medidas que se han tomado han sido para llegar a la situación en la que nos encontramos. De este burro no me bajo. Yo ya he aceptado que no tome la decisión correcta teniendo en cuenta mi situación personal. En los años que van del 2014 al 2019, tanto por precio de vivienda como por las condiciones de financiación, no tuve la valentía para dar el paso, seguramente por comodidad y hay que aceptarlo.La situación habitacional ahora es catastrófica, el mercado es el que es me guste o no y como adulto que soy lo tengo que aceptar y sobrevivir lo mejor que pueda, soy la parte débil. Con el paso de los años me ha quedado claro que para la clase trabajadora es muy importante que la vivienda principal sea en propiedad, más aún cuando te has asentado en el lugar donde vas a vivir. Supongo que mis abuelos cuando llegaron a Barcelona también sufrieron la carestía de vivienda, por eso sus recomendaciones en tener una vivienda en propiedad, pero en aquel entonces había mucho terreno por construir, éramos 37/38 millones de habitantes, y no recibíamos 500k de inmigrantes al año. Yo soy el único responsable de mi situación con respecto a la vivienda.Un chaval de 25 a 35 años es otra cosa.
Por cierto es brutal el precio de la vivienda con respecto a un año, año y medio, tranquilamente 80/100k de más  Sres. esta es la realidad que yo veo a pie de calle.

Salut,

En realidad todo el mundo es responsable de sus decisiones, pero es absurdo que tu vida gire entorno a un ladrillo: "sin ladrillos, no hay Paraíso". Y efectivamente, como aceptamos todo, estamos como estamos, en una inmensa KK.