Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2025

[torre01]

Un garrulo de campo da al "doctor" Sánchez más vueltas que una peonza.
Con el circo de ayer, ha pasado desapercibida la declaración del gestor del PSOE ante el juez y, sobre todo, la pregunta del millón de euros.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9ZJjSZvlHs
Minuto 17 en adelante.

No sé que empeño hay en defender a un ladrón a no ser que se participe del botín.

[muyuu]

aprox. un 500% del PIB en derechos a pensiones sin capitalizar



PS: posteado desde un VPN francés porque en el Reino Unido ya no tenemos acceso a imgur

[sargento.algodon]

Yendo de mi trabajo a casa y vuelta, me he cruzado (barrio de Salamanca) con bastantes mudanzas en proceso, que me han parecido todas de vaciar la vivienda, no de traer cosas nuevas. Es fin de mes y es lo normal. Pero me ha chocado y no sé como interpretarlo en el cuadro general (¿hay movimiento en el mercado de alquiler? ¿la gente abandona el barrio?)

[berberecho]

aprox. un 500% del PIB en derechos a pensiones sin capitalizar



PS: posteado desde un VPN francés porque en el Reino Unido ya no tenemos acceso a imgur

Una cosa será el derecho a pensión y otra la cantidad que constituya esa pensión. Ahí está el truco.

[muyuu]

[...]

Una cosa será el derecho a pensión y otra la cantidad que constituya esa pensión. Ahí está el truco.

venía un poco a colación sobre lo que es el "dinero" y lo que va a ocurrir cuando la gente no tenga prácticamente pensión, y el Estado les sableará con impuestos al capital si se intentan proteger de esta falta de pensión, y seguramente también saquearán las pensiones privadas

estamos hablando de un sistema completamente fallido, esta es la realidad aunque la realización de esta falla sea a cámara lenta

pasa un poco como con la educación, claramente un sistema fallido y anacrónico pensado para generar trabajadores de una sociedad industrial, y burócratas - pero esto lleva siendo evidente décadas, y parece que ni la sociedad ni el sistema se dan por enterados y se sorprenden de la falta de productividad, de la enorme cantidad de "subembleo" y de paro declarado, etc

---

edito para añadir:

[senslev]

Vaya KK



Parece que la curva 10y-3m ha salido del año de consolidación después de pasar a positivo y haber estado guarreando en el 0 --> 2 meses para 2026. A ver si para marzo ya tenemos  el principio del fin registrado.

[asustadísimos]

[He releído los comentarios que se citan a continuación y los he retocado, a veces de forma importante, para que conformen un paquete sobre la verdadera naturaleza de Capital & Dinero:

• A Burbuja le pasa como a Capital y Dinero.
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2630.msg251419#msg251419

• Concepción ontológica jurídico-económica y académica del Dinero.
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2630.msg251425#msg251425

• Nuevo mezquino ortogramita imperial anglo.
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2630.msg251486#msg251486

• El oro parece dinero.
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2630.msg251490#msg251490]


[Está claro que el anglo tiene su proyecto y ya no puede dar marcha atrás. Lo que debemos preguntarnos en este blog es qué es lo que prefiere el Capital & Dinero para la UE, si quiere una socialdemocracia capaz de ponerle el bozal a las masas o sigue apostando por el actual falsoliberalismo neoliberal tan comprometido y beligerante.]

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/82f63f23-db20-4f6c-84f1-e7b45ca09f46

Credit market hit with $200bn ‘flood’ of AI-related issuance

Jumbo debt sales to fund huge artificial intelligence capex threaten to store up new risks for investors


Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta sold $30bn of bonds this week to finance its AI projects © David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

US companies have issued more than $200bn worth of bonds to finance huge artificial intelligence-related infrastructure projects this year, as analysts predict the splurge will “flood” the broader market and store up new debt risks for credit investors.

The tech giants that provide the cloud computing on which the internet is run at first financed their huge investments in data centres and related infrastructure primarily through their strong earnings and hefty balance sheets.

But they have increasingly begun to tap debt markets to cover the mounting upfront costs of colossal new AI data centres, particularly as returns from the technology are still years away.

Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta sold $30bn of bonds this week to finance its AI projects. The sale was highly oversubscribed with about $125bn of orders, the largest ever demand in dollar terms for a US investment-grade corporate bond, according to two people close to the deal.

Goldman Sachs had previously estimated that the $180bn worth of “jumbo” bond sales by the likes of Meta, Alphabet and Oracle meant AI-related issuance accounted for more than a quarter of all net supply of US corporate debt this year.

“The highly rated tech issuers’ huge appetite for debt to fund AI investment will divert demand from other areas of the corporate credit markets,” said Gordon Shannon, a fund manager at TwentyFour Asset Management.

Oracle sold $18bn of bonds in September — also in a highly oversubscribed deal — to help pay for the development of data centres it has leased to provide computing power to OpenAI.

“These companies that have committed to huge builds for basically one customer are going to have to raise expensive capital,” said Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson.

“The bonds we’re seeing at the moment haven’t been too expensive because of the point of the cycle we’re at, but the companies are going to need hundreds of billions of dollars more.”

He added: “If the markets end up investing hundreds of billions of debt in rapidly depreciating assets that may not have sufficient returns, the risk could become systemic.”

In a note on Friday, analysts at Barclays said that while “the AI wave has not been a major driver of supply in our market . . . several deals this year show the potential to shift this picture dramatically”, adding that such issuance was the “largest elephant in the room” for many investors.

“Surging capex volumes could finally break the dam and lead to a flood of issuance that we have not previously forecast,” they added.

Senior fund managers said the wave of sales would force fixed-income investors to reckon with the same questions as stock investors about the sustainability of the AI spending boom.

Fraser Lundie, global head of fixed income at Aviva Investors, said the surge in issuance raised “important questions about concentration risk [and] capex sustainability”. He added that it could increase the broader US investment-grade credit market’s sensitivity to interest rates, given the long duration of the bonds being sold by the tech groups.

Goldman’s analysts called 2025 “a banner year for AI-linked net issuance” and predicted that the streak of bond sales to finance data centres and related energy infrastructure would continue in 2026.

The groups are issuing at a time of rampant demand for corporate credit, which earlier this year sent US credit spreads to their lowest level this century.

“This pick-up in issuance is occurring at a time when inflows into the asset class remain firm, helping to absorb new paper,” said Jason Borbora-Sheen, a portfolio manager at asset manager Ninety One.

Other fund managers warned of the broader risks of funding the next leg of capex through the capital markets, rather than companies’ own cash generation, if fears of an AI “bubble” were realised.

“If this leaves much more bad debt in the system, it could have more negative consequences,” said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac.

“And to make things even more tricky, some of it is financed through private debt, so it’s quite opaque.”

[Derby]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/more-big-companies-bet-they-can-still-grow-without-hiring/ar-AA1Pevu9

More Big Companies Bet They Can Still Grow Without Hiring


Many companies are hoping to reduce head counts as a result of AI spending.
© Billy Hustace/Getty Images

It’s the corporate gamble of the moment: Can you run a company, increasing sales and juicing profits, without adding people?

American employers are increasingly making the calculation that they can keep the size of their teams flat—or shrink through layoffs—without harming their businesses. Part of that thinking is the belief that artificial intelligence will be used to pick up some of the slack and automate more processes. Companies are also hesitant to make any moves in an economy many still describe as uncertain.

JPMorgan Chase’s chief financial officer told investors recently that the bank now has a “very strong bias against having the reflective response” to hire more people for any given need. Aerospace and defense company RTX boasted last week that its sales rose even without adding employees.

Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, sent a memo to staffers this month saying the firm “will constrain head count growth through the end of the year” and reduce roles that could be more efficient with AI. Walmart, the nation’s largest private employer, also said it plans to keep its head count roughly flat over the next three years, even as its sales grow.

“If people are getting more productive, you don’t need to hire more people,” Brian Chesky, Airbnb’s chief executive, said in an interview. “I see a lot of companies pre-emptively holding the line, forecasting and hoping that they can have smaller workforces.”

Airbnb employs around 7,000 people, and Chesky says he doesn’t expect that number to grow much over the next year. With the help of AI, he said he hopes that “the team we already have can get considerably more work done.”


JPMorgan Chase headquarters in New York. © Michael Nagle/Bloomberg News

Many companies seem intent on embracing a new, ultralean model of staffing, one where more roles are kept unfilled and hiring is treated as a last resort. At Intuit, every time a job comes open, managers are pushed to justify why they need to backfill it, said Sandeep Aujla, the company’s chief financial officer. The new rigor around hiring helps combat corporate bloat.

“That typical behavior that settles in—and we’re all guilty of it—is, historically, if someone leaves, if Jane Doe leaves, I’ve got to backfill Jane,” Aujla said in an interview. Now, when someone quits, the company asks: “Is there an opportunity for us to rethink how we staff?”


Mentions on earnings calls of return on investment in AI spending

Intuit has chosen not to replace certain roles in its finance, legal and customer-support functions, he said. In its last fiscal year, the company’s revenue rose 16% even as its head count stayed flat, and it is planning only modest hiring in the current year.

The desire to avoid hiring or filling jobs reflects a growing push among executives to see a return on their AI spending. On earnings calls, mentions of ROI and AI investments are increasing, according to an analysis by AlphaSense, reflecting heightened interest from analysts and investors that companies make good on the millions they are pouring into AI.

Many executives hope that software coding assistants and armies of digital agents will keep improving—even if the current results still at times leave something to be desired.

The widespread caution in hiring now is frustrating job seekers and leading many employees within organizations to feel stuck in place, unable to ascend or take on new roles, workers and bosses say.


Walmart plans to keep its head count roughly the same over the next three years.
© Joe Carrotta for WSJ

Inside many large companies, HR chiefs also say it is becoming increasingly difficult to predict just how many employees will be needed as technology takes on more of the work.

Some employers seem to think that fewer employees will actually improve operations.

Meta Platforms this past week said it is cutting 600 jobs in its AI division, a move some leaders hailed as a way to cut down on bureaucracy.

“By reducing the size of our team, fewer conversations will be required to make a decision, and each person will be more load-bearing and have more scope and impact,” Alexandr Wang, Meta’s chief AI officer, wrote in a memo to staff seen by The Wall Street Journal.

Though layoffs haven’t been widespread through the economy, some companies are making cuts. Target on Thursday said it would cut about 1,000 corporate employees, and close another 800 open positions, totaling around 8% of its corporate workforce. Michael Fiddelke, Target’s incoming CEO, said in a memo sent to staff that too “many layers and overlapping work have slowed decisions, making it harder to bring ideas to life.”

A range of other employers, from the electric-truck maker Rivian to cable and broadband provider Charter Communications, have announced their own staff cuts in recent weeks, too.

Operating with fewer people can still pose risks for companies by straining existing staffers or hurting efforts to develop future leaders, executives and economists say. “It’s a bit of a double-edged sword,” said Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “You want to keep your head count costs down now—but you also have to have an eye on the future.”

[Derby]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-economy-that-s-great-for-parents-lousy-for-their-grown-up-kids/ar-AA1PcKCY

The Economy That’s Great for Parents, Lousy for Their Grown-Up Kids

LANDENBERG, Pa.—When Milan Jevtitch finished his Ph.D in chemical engineering in 1986, he got a job right away at Procter & Gamble. He climbed the corporate ladder, bought a spacious four-bedroom home for his family and saved for a comfortable retirement.

His daughter’s job search has been much tougher. Anais Jevtitch, 24, graduated cum laude from Ohio University in December 2023 and has lost count of the number of applications she’s submitted for positions in marketing, social media and film and television production. Nearly two years later she is still living in her parents’ colonial-style home on the outskirts of Philadelphia, working part-time jobs as she continues her relentless search.

“‘Ghosted’ is the term she uses,” Jevtitch, 68, said of his daughter. “I’m very frustrated, almost angry…It’s really difficult for her to even get interviews.”

Ask many older Americans how they are faring financially and they’ll tell you they are comfortable. Their houses and 401(k)s have soared in value and they’re looking forward to secure retirements. Yet many are brimming with pessimism about the economy because they see how their children are struggling—to find jobs, to afford mortgages or even rent, to pay for healthcare and child care.

In a July Wall Street Journal-NORC poll that examined Americans’ economic views, the most common respondent was someone comfortable with his or her own finances but gloomy about the economy’s future. Nearly 70% said they believe the American dream no longer holds true or never did, the highest level in nearly 15 years of surveys. Nearly 80% weren’t confident that life for their children would be better.

The divided fortunes of parents and their adult children are part of a split-screen economy that is delivering robust returns for high earners and many older Americans while conditions for many others worsen. There have always been divisions between high-earning Americans and others, such as younger or low-income workers. But those divisions are now widening within the same families, flipping traditional expectations about younger generations economically surpassing their elders.

In some cases, financially secure parents are subsidizing their children’s rents, helping them travel for job interviews and paying for job coaches. Other families are turning to multigenerational living arrangements.


Thinking about your current or prospective financial situation. Share of respondents confident in their financial situation, by generation


Thinking about your current financial situation, how confident are you that you will...

Recent college graduates are taking a particular hit. They typically face higher unemployment than older workers, but the gap is widening. While the overall unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, it is much higher for recent college graduates—6.5% over the 12 months ending in August. That is about the highest level in a decade, excluding the pandemic unemployment spike.

Some economists blame AI for replacing entry-level roles. Others say companies have slowed hiring because they are uncertain how tariffs and other regulatory changes will affect their costs. Recent grads report submitting hundreds of applications through LinkedIn and other portals and barely ever getting a response.

“They are getting absolute radio silence and becoming increasingly desperate to stand out,” Ben Tobin, a career coach in Portland, Ore., said of the computer-science graduates he helps. “Almost all the ones I talk to are either being supported by their parents or living with them. Many are finding some kind of other job to fill the gap…One is walking dogs through an app.”

A 50% leap in home prices since the beginning of the pandemic is another sore spot. Young Americans have typically had to save to buy a home, but many of today’s young adults have given up the idea of ever affording one.

In the WSJ-NORC poll, about 23% of respondents said they were extremely or very confident that they could afford to buy a home, but only 11% felt the same about today’s children’s generation. About 32% were confident they could keep up with their expenses but less than half that share were confident of the next generation’s ability to do so.

On a recent afternoon, Anais Jevtitch had just returned home from a busy day of job searching. In the morning she attended a local networking event, where she collected business cards from marketing professionals and asked for job leads. She also participated in the group activity: writing an obituary for herself, as a way to focus on her life goals.


The job hunt spurred Anais Jevtitch to write 50 versions of her résumé.


Anais holds an old family picture.

“I was the youngest person in the room, so writing an obituary for myself at 24 years old was kind of a crazy first activity,” she said from her parents’ living room while the family dogs ran through fall leaves in the yard. After the networking event, she visited her career coach in nearby Kennett Square. Ed Samuel—whom her father had recently hired to help her—worked with Anais to refine her LinkedIn profile.

Later, from a childhood bedroom decorated with Star Wars and rock-band posters, Anais opened her laptop and pointed to the 50 versions of her résumé she has written since February. Then she clicked over to LinkedIn to check her connections count: 270. Samuel has been pushing her to reach 500 to raise her visibility with recruiters.

Anais’s mother, Bettina Jevtitch, remembers an easier path to the good life when she was young. Bettina and her husband were both French immigrants to the U.S. when they met in Cincinnati in the 1990s. One of her friends back then managed to buy a modest home and car from her bartending income. “There is no way that now we can do that,” she said. “There is no way that Anais can even afford to move out of here.”


Bettina Jevtitch worries about her daughter’s prospects.


Many young people worry they won’t achieve the kind of homeownership the Jevtitch parents have secured.

Steven Conn, a history professor at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio, was struck recently by his students’ reactions to the film “A Raisin in the Sun,” which concludes with a Black family fulfilling its long-delayed dream of buying a home in 1950s Chicago. “One of my students said, ‘Yes, that is their American dream. We don’t get that.’ And everyone in class nodded their heads. Owning their own home is already something they don’t believe will happen,” Conn said.

Conn’s son, Zach, has been searching for a job since graduating this summer from Macalester College in Minnesota. For now, Zach is living rent-free in a Philadelphia apartment owned by his parents, where he estimates he has applied for about 400 jobs since July, in fields from shipping to museum work.

“You’re shouting into this void that just feels pretty dehumanizing,” Zach said. Many of his friends are also relying on family for financial support, he added. “There is this sense of, we’ll never be able to buy a house and we’ll never be able to build the life that we were dreaming of.”

Steven Conn and his wife also own a second home in Ohio and have solid retirement savings. They faced their own challenges finding jobs in the difficult academic market when they were starting out, Conn said. But Zach’s struggles have helped darken Conn’s views on the economy.


Steven Conn with daughter Olivia, wife Angela and son Zach.© Zach Conn

“There is something different in the world of employers and employment. And I think it has a lot to do with the digitization of this process…It feels lonelier, it feels more isolating than I remember it when I was his age,” Conn said.

North of Chicago, in the prosperous suburb of Wilmette, Ill., Sam Cummins was preparing this week for a rare opportunity in the hyper-digital application process: a virtual one-way interview. “You talk to the computer yourself,” Cummins, who graduated from DePauw University in May, explained from his parents’ Cape Cod-style home.

Cummins is applying for sometimes dozens of jobs a day in insurance, banking and other fields, and even brings his laptop to his caddying gig at a local country club to pursue leads between rounds. He always appreciates when golfers offer to put in a word for him, though he worries such referrals don’t always break through the labyrinth of automation.

His mother, Susan Troy, called the process “soul destroying.”

“You always hear that with a liberal arts degree from a good school you can do many things, you are very hirable,” she said, adding that she was still hopeful he would find a job soon. “But here we are in mid-October.”


Sam Cummins, with his mother, Susan Troy. Sometimes he applies for dozens of jobs in a single day. © Jeanne Whalen/WSJ

Mary Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C., agrees that past generations faced their own troubles. The 1970s oil shock and stagflation clubbed the economy when she was a teen, and high interest rates thwarted home buyers in the 1980s. But when she went to college, she wasn’t worried about finding a job, and when she found one it came with health insurance. “I just don’t think these things took up such high multiples of our income,” she said.

Lovely has seen the obstacles facing today’s young people in her professional research and in her own family. Her two adult children have relied on their parents for financial support in recent years while facing a tough job market and soaring costs for healthcare and housing.

“Fortunately we can afford to help them,” Lovely said. But she worries about wider opportunities for the young generation.

“We’re not giving them what they need to really get off to a good start,” she said. “I have lots of friends who are going through the same thing and are helping their kids if they can. And a lot of people are talking about it because they realize it’s not their fault. It’s not that their kid’s an idiot…it’s just so much bigger than the individual kids.”

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/399ad440-ecd3-4fb0-b97d-a0d8e0a8a22c

China ‘made a real mistake’ by ‘firing shots’ on rare earths, says Scott Bessent

US Treasury secretary says US will protect itself from supply shocks in 12-24 months


Scott Bessent: ‘There will naturally be some bumps . . . but I think we have much better communication channels now’ © Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Beijing “made a real mistake” by threatening to shut off exports of its rare earths, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has said, insisting the US would secure alternative supplies within two years.

Speaking after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in South Korea, Bessent told the FT that the US and Chinese leaders had reached an “equilibrium” but warned that China would not be able to keep using its critical minerals as a coercive tool.

“I don’t think they’re able to do it now because we have offsetting measures,” he said, adding that Chinese leverage over the US in rare earths would last no more than 12 to 24 months.

“China has alerted everyone to the danger. They’ve made a real mistake,” Bessent said. “It’s one thing to put the gun on the table. It’s another thing to fire shots in the air.” 

The summit between Xi and Trump came six months after the leaders imposed extraordinary reciprocal tariffs that Bessent described at the time as tantamount to a trade embargo. After reaching a truce, tensions flared this month when China responded to new US export controls with sweeping controls on rare earths.

The move threatened the ceasefire and the first meeting between Trump and Xi since 2019, as well as causing widespread disruption around the world.

“I think the Chinese leadership were slightly alarmed by the global backlash to their export controls,” said Bessent.

Bessent held triage negotiations with Chinese vice-premier He Lifeng in Malaysia last week that salvaged the trade deal and the summit. “There’s an agreement that, ceteris paribus, we have reached an equilibrium, and we can operate within that equilibrium over the next 12 months,” said Bessent.

When the leaders sat across the table at Gimhae air base, Bessent said it was clear they respected each other. He said Xi voiced concerns, but clearly “wanted to find areas of co-operation with President Trump”. 

“They were both looking forward to being in the room and moving things forward, rather than the choppy situation that we’ve been in since the spring,” Bessent said. “They realised that stability between the two countries is important, for both economies and for the global economy.”

He said one lighter moment occurred when they discussed Trump visiting Beijing. “President Trump said, ‘I believe you want me to come at the beginning of the year’, and President Xi said, ‘It’s very cold in January and February, why don’t we push it back to April?’” 

Under the one-year deal, China agreed to postpone implementation of its rare earths regime, buy large amounts of US soyabeans and allow American investors to take control of TikTok in the US. Speaking about TikTok, Bessent said: “Everything’s ironed out in terms of the permissions, and we should see a transaction very soon.” 

The US reciprocated by delaying a measure that would put thousands of Chinese groups on a trade blacklist. Trump also agreed to cut fentanyl-related tariffs from 20 to 10 per cent after Xi pledged to crack down on the export of chemicals used to make the deadly opioid.

“Fentanyl occupied a lot of the discussion in Busan,” Bessent said. “It is obviously very important for the president, very important for this administration, very important for the base and for all Americans.”

Some observers say the US and China have just paused hostilities and will struggle to make fundamental changes in relations.

Bessent disputed the idea that the US could no longer press China to undergo structural reforms to tackle issues such as overcapacity. He said he had warned the Europeans and others that Chinese exports would flow elsewhere after the US “put up the tariff wall”.

“The global south cannot absorb them, so for example they’re coming to the EU, the UK, Australia, Canada and Japan,” he said, adding that others had imposed tariffs on China or were planning to do so.  

“We’ve set a standard, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the rest of the world doesn’t follow,” he said. “Our trade deficit with China is down 25 per cent this year. China’s manufacturing activity has now contracted for seven straight months. Maybe they will make the decision themselves.” 

The Treasury secretary said Trump’s successful trip to Asia, including the deals he had done to make America the “leading destination for capital and investment” underscored a critical US advantage.

“The US has the world’s premier military, the strongest economy and financial centre with the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and is the world’s leader in technology and innovation,” he said. “President Trump is cementing and expanding these strengths, and the Chinese know this.”

Bessent said the US and China would sign the deal over the coming week and was confident it would stick. “There will naturally be some bumps . . . but I think we have much better communication channels now.”

[Elcasco]

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-10-31/el-pp-europeo-propone-un-euro-digital-desinflado-frente-a-la-ambicion-del-bce-y-la-comision-europea.html

El PP europeo propone un euro digital desinflado frente a la ambición del BCE y la Comisión Europea

El informe del ponente de la Eurocámara condiciona el desarrollo de la nueva moneda virtual al fracaso de los sistemas privados de pago ‘on line’

Ya es oficial: el Parlamento Europeo es la institución de la UE que ve con más reticencias el euro digital. Al menos lo es un parte significativa de él, el grupo mayoritario, el Partido Popular Europeo. Este viernes ha presentado su informe sobre el proyecto legal que presentó la Comisión Europea hace más de dos años y en él condiciona con nitidez el desarrollo pleno de la versión digital de la moneda única a que no exista una alternativa emanada del sector bancario europeo. La condición se aleja de la propuesta inicial del Ejecutivo de la UE y de la postura que mantiene el BCE. Con todo, este informe todavía puede cambiar con las enmiendas que presenten los demás grupos parlamentarios.

Hasta ahora, el euro digital ha avanzado de forma lenta pero inexorable. Esta misma semana el BCE ha fijado la fecha para salir a la calle definitivamente, 2029. Pero para que este plan pueda cumplirse falta una pieza clave: las normas que lo regulen. Desde julio de 2023, el proyecto que presentó el Ejecutivo de la UE ha dormido el sueño de los justos, hasta que en los últimos meses se ha acelerado ante la presión de un Banco Central que precisa de certezas legislativas para poder avanzar en el desarrollo de la moneda. En septiembre fueron los Estados miembros quienes se sentaron las bases de una posición que pretender tener ultimada a finales de año.

En el Parlamento Europeo, el otro colegislador de la UE, este viernes se ha conocido el borrador del ponente de la norma, el eurodiputado español del PP Fernando Navarrete. De él se conoce su escepticismo con este proyecto y eso se plasma en una postura que desinfla parte de lo que presentó en su momento la Comisión. Navarrete, para empezar, divide el euro digital en dos partes: una es off line, es decir, funcionaría sin conexión a internet. Se trataría, en esencia, de un monedero digital con el que el ciudadano podría pagar en los comercios que, obligatoriamente, deberían darle esta opción. La otra, la llamada on line, solo se desarrollaría si el sector financiero no despliega sistemas de pagos privados que funcionen en todos los países de la UE, sean interoperables, dependan del eurosistema y sean de capital europeo.

La mejor prueba de que el BCE esperaba con impaciencia el paso dado este viernes por el Parlamento está en su reacción ya hoy mismo: “Acogemos con satisfacción la publicación del proyecto de informe del ponente del Parlamento sobre el Reglamento del euro digital y lo estamos evaluando”. No obstante, la máxima autoridad monetaria de la eurozona recuerda que lo conocido este viernes no es la posición de la Eurocámara. “La posición definitiva sobre el Reglamento se determinará en el debate que se celebrará en el Parlamento Europeo, y el BCE está dispuesto a prestar asistencia técnica a los legisladores”.

Este planteamiento gusta en el sector privado a poco que se pregunte. Fuentes de la industria explicaban hace semanas a este diario que, una vez la banca ha asumido que el euro digital iba a salir adelante, ahora busca que le amenace la menor tarta posible del negocio, tanto en los pagos como en los depósitos. La versión digital de la moneda única se ha concebido, por un lado, principalmente como una alternativa de pagos electrónica a los sistemas actuales, casi todos estadounidenses: Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Apple Pay, Google Pay. Por otro, permitiría que los ciudadanos abrieran una cuenta en el BCE −a través de la banca comercial− que sería, en realidad, ese monedero electrónico desde el que se harían los pagos.

Desde el sector privado apenas se ha avanzado, hasta que en los últimos años, ante la presión oficial a través de la creación de esta alternativa pública −impulsada por la necesidad de autonomía geopolítica− el sector privado se ha puesto serio y está impulsando iniciativas como Bizum (sistema que se está desarrollando en España, Portugal e Italia) o Wero (Francia, Alemania, Bélgica).

Navarrete siempre ha visto el euro digital como un riesgo potencial para la estabilidad y, de hecho, lo deja claro en su propio informe. “Por su propia naturaleza, la forma on line del euro digital conlleva riesgos de desintermediación bancaria, pérdida de depósitos, competencia directa con soluciones de pago privadas y, en última instancia, un impacto negativo en la capacidad de financiación de las empresas y los hogares europeos", escribe en la nota explicativa que acompaña al texto legal. Por eso, continúa, “el euro digital on line está supeditado a la ausencia de una solución paneuropea privada y soberana para los pagos minoristas". “Esta condición garantiza que el euro digital actúe como una red de seguridad contra la fragmentación del mercado, y no como un ecosistema de pagos paralelo que impida que las soluciones privadas alcancen una escala paneuropea o desaliente la innovación continua”, continúa.

¿Cómo se calibraría si hay una alternativa privada? Le correspondería a la Comisión evaluarlo “en el plazo de seis meses desde que el Banco Central Europeo notifique la finalización de los trabajos para la emisión del euro digital offline". Si el resultado del examen fuera negativo, “la Comisión estará facultada” para fijar la fecha de lanzamiento de la versión online.

Ahora arranca la siguiente fase: con este informe sobre la mesa, que se presentará oficialmente en el Parlamento Europeo el próximo miércoles, empieza la negociación entre los grupos parlamentarios. A falta de ver lo que pasa en la sesión de la próxima semana, se puede avanzar que habrá críticas desde el lado socialdemócrata, que siempre ha sido más partidario de este proyecto, a esta posición y también desde los liberales de Renew y Los Verdes. Después comenzará el proceso de negociación para ahormar una posición común de la Eurocámara que negocie con el Consejo de la UE la forma definitiva del texto legal.

Los plazos que se manejan desde los dos colegisladores apuntan a que la negociación entre ambas partes será en la segunda mitad de 2026. El Eurogrupo y el Ecofin, los ministros de Finanzas de la zona euro y la UE, respectivamente, confían en tener fijada su postura a finales de año, una vez en septiembre lograron pactar con el BCE que la decisión de fijar los límites de tenencias en las cuentas que los ciudadanos podrán tener en el regulador se fijará de forma compartida entre el propio BCE y el Eurogrupo. El consenso del Parlamento se espera para más tarde, la primavera de 2026.