PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2025

[Derby]

Claro, como los tipos de interés están tan altos...

https://www.baha.com/Trump-I-would-like-to-see-rates-go-down/news/details/65552451

Trump: I would like to see rates go down

United States President Donald Trump expressed on Tuesday his hope that the Federal Reserve will lower its interest rates at its next meeting on Wednesday, as "everything else is going down," including inflation, energy prices, and the crime rate.

While at the Joint Base Andrews before leaving for Clive, Iowa, Trump spoke briefly to the press on a variety of issues. In a brief statement, he claimed that "very good things are happening" concerning the ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the US.

Furthermore, Trump expressed certainty that "we'll figure something out" with Seoul after he decided to raise the tariff on South Korea's exports by 10% to 25%.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/04c785c0-9ca4-4a85-a279-d95c9d8f1f80

Dollar hits 4-year low as ‘chaotic’ policymaking tests investors’ nerves

Many investors expect the dollar to weaken further in 2026


The dollar fell 0.9% against a basket of other major currencies on Tuesday © Financial Times

The US dollar hit a four-year low on Tuesday, as President Donald Trump’s erratic domestic and foreign policymaking further undermined global investors’ confidence in US assets. 

The greenback dropped 0.9 per cent against a basket of other major currencies, taking its fall in January to more than 2 per cent.

Sterling and the euro hit corresponding four-year highs against the dollar. The euro rose 0.9 per cent to $1.199, while sterling rose 0.8 per cent to $1.379. Both currencies are at their highest points since the second half of 2021.

“Gold strength and dollar weakness reflect serious doubts over chaotic, off-the-cuff policymaking by Trump” said Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset investing at Royal London Asset Management, citing the administration’s latest broadsides against Canada and South Korea. Gold has soared more than 18 per cent so far in January, hitting records and punching through $5,000 an ounce.

“Credible hints that the US may intervene to buy the yen shows policymakers just don’t care about the downside risks to the dollar,” Greetham added, a reference to speculation in recent days that the US and Japan would jointly intervene in currency markets to stop the rapid depreciation of the yen against the greenback.



Analysts at MUFG said the euro was “benefiting from its role as the anti-dollar”, as worries swirl over US policymaking.

A number of issues are weighing on the US currency simultaneously, analysts said, including worries about a potential US government shutdown, sharp moves in the yen, rumours about the White House’s pick for chair of the Federal Reserve and tensions between the US and its Nato allies — which came to a head last week over Trump’s demands to take over Greenland.

“Greenland reignited the dollar’s risk premium,” said Lefteris Farmakis, senior FX strategist at Barclays. “The upending of the post-World War II order is a long-term negative for the dollar,” he said, as it encourages investors to move out of dollar-denominated assets or to hedge their dollar exposure.

Farmakis added that the FX intervention rumours were “amplifying” the fall in the US currency, by sending a signal of the administration’s willingness to let the dollar depreciate in a bid to support the competitiveness of US exports.

Many investors expect the dollar to weaken further in 2026, with analysts at JPMorgan saying on Tuesday that “reasons to be bearish on the dollar remain intact”.

Meanwhile, economic and political developments across the Atlantic have allowed investors to turn more positive on the euro and sterling.

Recent economic data from Germany, the Eurozone’s biggest economy, has buoyed sentiment among some investors, said Constantin Bolz, head of G10 FX strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management.

Germany’s economy grew 0.2 per cent in 2025 — its first positive reading since 2022 — while a closely watched measure of activity in the construction sector rose in January to its highest since 2022. A broader measure of economic sentiment in the country is at its highest level since 2021. 

“Over the last few weeks, we could see the first hard data showing [an economic] recovery,” Bolz said. “Europe hasn’t grown for the last 15 years. If this fiscal spending really lifts growth, that should be supportive [for the euro].”

French political instability, which weighed on the euro last year, has also eased after the government survived two no-confidence votes last week over its budget plans. In the past week, the spread between French and German 10-year borrowing costs has shrunk from 0.67 percentage points to 0.56 points. 

In the UK, stronger economic data has combined with a “post-Budget bounce in sentiment” to support the pound, said Farmakis at Barclays. This month, traders have pushed back their bets on the next Bank of England rate cut from June to July. 

[tomasjos]

PP, Vox y Junts tumban la moratoria de desahucios y 60.000 familias vulnerables podrían perder sus casas https://share.google/Iz0LStZnKwmyzu35L
Lo de Junts defendiendo al ancianito que complementa su pensión tiene huevos cuando CCOO ya demostró que era falso


PP, Vox y Junts tumban la moratoria de desahucios y 60.000 familias vulnerables podrían perder sus casas
La derecha parlamentaria deja caer el megadecreto que incluye la moratoria de desahucios, de corte de suministros y la revalorización de las pensiones.

La historia de esta segunda legislatura corre en espiral. Ya van dos años en los que el Consejo de Ministros aprueba en los últimos días del año un decreto para prorrogar el llamado “Escudo Social” y ya van dos años en los que Junts lo deja caer cuando toca convalidarlo en el Congreso.

La moratoria de los desahucios que ha evitado que 60.000 familias vulnerables se queden en la calle ha sido rechazada con los votos de los nacionalistas catalanes, PP y Vox. Todos estos partidos han expresado su rechazo a un texto que, según denuncian, favorece la “inquiokupación”. Junts ha calificado de “chantaje” que el decreto incluya también la subida de las pensiones del 2,7% para este año y ha propuesto una ley alternativa para que se vote de forma separada. “Pensiones sí, okupaciones no”, fue el resumen de la portavoz del partido catalán, Míriam Nogueras, en el debate en el Congreso, momentos antes de la votación. Según confirmó, Junts votará a favor de la revalorización de las pensiones solo cuando se vote por separado.

En enero de 2025, el decreto ómnibus que unía moratoria de desahucios, subida de pensiones y ayudas al transporte público fue derogado también gracias a la alianza de la derecha parlamentaria. Dos semanas después, la negociación con Junts daba resultados y el megadecreto era aprobado con algunas modificaciones menores y más ayudas a los propietarios.

En esta ocasión, un año después, con los puentes de diálogo rotos entre el Gobierno y el partido de Carles Puigdemont, y un discurso más enervado contra la moratoria de los desahucios, se reducen las posibilidades de que se repita la historia. 

Al igual que el año previo, tras la anulación del decreto por el Congreso, la revalorización de las pensiones quedará suspendida, aunque no por mucho tiempo. El PP y Junts han mostrado su predisposición de aprobarla a través de otra ley que se vote de forma separada.

No es la revalorización de las pensiones sino la moratoria de desahucios la que está en peligro. Para Junts, esta medida que protege a las familias vulnerables sin alternativa habitacional de procesos de desahucio, “castiga [a] pequeños propietarios, muchos de ellos jubilados, que necesitan el alquiler de un piso para complementar una pensión a menudo insuficiente”.

Pese a las deficiencias de la moratoria, que solo ha conseguido evitar uno de cada cuatro desahucios de hogares vulnerables, el fin de la medida supondría una “ola de desahucios” para la que las instituciones no están preparadas
El PP, por su parte, dejó clara su oposición al decreto ómnibus y acusó a la moratoria de desahucios de hacer que “la gente que no paga la renta se mantenga en su casa a costa del propietario”, según palabras de Alberto Núñez Feijóo en la COPE.

El decreto derogado este 27 de enero en el Congreso, además de la moratoria de los desahucios, incluye la prórroga de la prohibición de cortes de suministros básicos para familias vulnerables y los descuentos del bono eléctrico que se mantienen con prórrogas anuales desde la pandemia. El megadecreto también contempla mejoras fiscales para los afectados de la dana y para los afectados por los incendios del verano. La subida del Ingreso Mínimo Vital, ayudas al coche eléctrico o coeficientes reductores de jubilación para bomberos forestales son otras medidas que dejan de tener vigor tras la derrota del Gobierno en el Congreso.

Un tsunami de desahucios
La principal medida que decae por la no convalidación del decreto es la moratoria de los desahucios del “Escudo social”. Según el Observatori Desca, esta medida ha conseguido suspender hasta 60.000 desahucios de familias vulnerables, que se verían reactivados en el caso de que las negociaciones posteriores no consigan resucitarlo. Esta organización advierte que “el futuro de miles de familias está en juego”.

Pese a las deficiencias de la moratoria, que solo ha conseguido evitar uno de cada cuatro desahucios de hogares vulnerables entre 2020 y 2025, el fin de la medida supondría una “ola de desahucios” para la que las autoridades no están preparadas ni cuentan con los “planes de choque” necesarios ni un parque público suficiente para hacer frente a la situación de emergencia humanitaria que provocaría el fin de la prórroga.

Enric Aragonès, portavoz del Sindicat de Llogaters de Catalunya, desmonta algunos de los bulos creados en torno a esta moratoria: “Esta moratoria de desahucios solo se aplica en casos de ocupación cuando es anterior a 2020 y el propietario tiene más de diez viviendas y hay menores a cargo o en una situación de discapacidad o dependencia grave”, indica Aragonès.


Más de 100 entidades se han unido en la plataforma #NiUnDesahucioMás y lanzaron el 23 de enero “un grito de alerta”, un comunicado en el que advertían contra el “drama social” que produciría la anulación del “Escudo Social”. Estas organizaciones demandan medidas estructurales que defiendan el derecho a la vivienda, que no necesiten ser prorrogadas año tras año, con la “intolerable incertidumbre a la que están sometiendo a las familias” y que el Gobierno lance un plan de actuación urgente con la movilización de fondos del Plan Estatal de Vivienda, el despliegue del tanteo y retracto para comprar viviendas en manos de grandes tenedores “especialmente ante el anuncio de la venta inminente de grandes carteras” de viviendas por parte de los fondos de inversión.

“Estamos en una situación de colapso, límite, en todo el Estado”, declaraba la portavoz del Sindicato de Inquilinas de Madrid, Valeria Racu, a las puertas del Congreso. “Que decaiga hoy este real decreto no implica solamente una oleada de 60.000 desahucios, también implica que somos incapaces de proteger el derecho a la vivienda”, añadió. Para Racu, PP, Vox y Junts se han convertido nuevamente en los “secuaces de la patronal inmobiliaria”.

“Madres monoparentales, personas mayores y jubiladas, personas con discapacidad, víctimas de violencia de género” son algunos de los perfiles más afectados por la caída de la moratoria, según enumera esta activista en un vídeo difundido por redes sociales. Son personas, continúa, “que si mañana las echan no tienen ninguna cabida en esta jungla en la que se ha convertido lo de tener una vivienda”.

Sin embargo, Racu reconoce que “moratorias como esta son un parche, migajas”, cuando el principal problema es otro: “Lo que tendríamos que hacer es terminar con el negocio de la vivienda para acabar con todos los desahucios: con los desahucios invisibles, el millón y medio que puede haber por la ‘gran renovación’; y con los visibles, estos 60.000 que van a ocurrir si no se aprueba la moratoria”.

El portavoz de la Plataforma de Afectados por la Hipoteca (PAH) Paco Morote incidía en la misma idea en la rueda de prensa del Congreso. También subrayaba la incertidumbre y la ansiedad de las familias que no saben si van a ser expulsadas de sus casas: “Son imprescindibles medidas de carácter estructural y permanente. No os podéis imaginar el sufrimiento de la gente que está en situación de vulnerabilidad cuando se acerca el 31 de diciembre y están pendientes de si se renueva o no. Esa gente que tuvo un alivio a finales de año, está otra vez entre la espada y la pared”. En su declaración a la prensa, Morote advirtió de “movilizaciones serias” si cae la moratoria de desahucios.

Para protestar contra los partidos que pretenden dejar en la calle a 60.000 familias, se han convocado concentraciones este 28 de enero a las 18:30h en Madrid frente al Congreso y frente a la sede de Junts en Barcelona.

[tomasjos]

 Como se puede da a" o pisitos o pensiones " un significado muy distinto al que le damos aquí

Feijóo exige a Sánchez que no obligue a los pensionistas a elegir "entre su casa y su pensión" | Vozpópuli https://share.google/dRy3xbLM9BhNSY7PS

[puede ser]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/13747538/01/26/uno-de-los-mayores-fondos-del-mundo-quiere-levantar-vivienda-asequible-en-espana-blackstone-analiza-oportunidades.html

Uno de los mayores fondos del mundo quiere levantar vivienda asequible en España: Blackstone analiza oportunidades en Madrid y Valencia

"No hemos hecho nada aún porque no encontramos proyectos que encajen con los retornos exigidos por nuestro capital"

Arreglá pero informal, asequible pero con retornos.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/a36ed1c8-9c13-48cd-beeb-c1e9d4619dca

Intervention will not reverse yen weakness

Loose fiscal policy no longer makes sense now that Japan has escaped deflation


Since there is no plan to stop citizens from moving their capital in and out of the country, or to prevent the Bank of Japan from setting interest rates as it sees fit, it follows that the authorities will be unable to fix the exchange rate © Toru Hanai/Bloomberg

Since last Friday, when the US Treasury conducted a so-called “rate check” of market participants, the yen has jumped from around ¥159 per dollar to hold levels close to ¥153. It is a sizeable move, and while it remains unclear whether any intervention actually took place, the signalling by the US and Japan was the closest thing short of it. Intervention to strengthen the yen is unlikely to do much good, but equally, it is unlikely to do much harm. The bigger question to ponder for Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi — and her electorate — is why the yen is so persistently weak.

Intervention is unlikely to do much good because of the basic trilemma of international economics. The trilemma states that it is not possible to have all three of a fixed exchange rate, free movement of capital and an independent monetary policy. Since there is no plan to stop Japanese citizens from moving their capital in and out of the country, or to prevent the Bank of Japan from setting interest rates as it sees fit, it follows that the authorities will be unable to fix the exchange rate. Empirical studies of currency intervention suggest there is a short-term impact on market prices that quickly dissipates.

Intervention is unlikely to do much harm because the yen is, according to most estimates, extremely cheap. Japan has large foreign currency reserves — accumulated decades ago, during interventions when it was trying to hold the yen down, rather than prop it up — and converting some of those reserves back into yen at today’s advantageous exchange rates will realise a sizeable profit. As long as Japan does not try to fight the markets with massive, open-ended intervention, purchases now will most likely work out as a good trade, and not something the country has cause to regret.

Whether intervention is verbal or actual, it may succeed in stabilising the yen for a few weeks, and with Japan going to the polls for a general election on February 8, Takaichi will be happy enough with that. The weakness of the currency, however, shows the downside of her populist fiscal policies. They include a proposal to suspend consumption tax on food for two years, on top of the large stimulus package she passed last November. Takaichi’s political imperative is to lower the cost of living, which has become the number one issue for the public, now that inflation has returned in Japan.

While the country was suffering deflation, fiscal stimulus made sense in order to bolster demand and use spare capacity in the economy. Now that Japan has inflation, however, it is hard to understand the economic rationale: extra spending and borrowing by the government is likely to push up interest rates without much benefit to activity. Even more seriously, populist fiscal policy could raise concerns about Japan’s large public debt. The risks of a debt crisis are often overstated and there is little imminent danger. Nonetheless, if you are one of the world’s largest sovereign debtors relative to GDP, you should be prudent with the public finances unless there is good reason to act otherwise.

The yen’s move was especially large because of the implication that the US Treasury might get involved in co-ordinated intervention. Its interest in the matter is clear: the weaker the yen, along with other Asian currencies such as the Korean won, the harder it is to reduce the US trade deficit. But just as it is at the Japanese end, the US trade deficit is driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand in the economy. Intervention in the yen is a flashy way to appear to be taking action, but if they want an actual appreciation in the Japanese currency, decision makers on both sides of the Pacific should look at policies closer to home.

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/27/homebuyers-backing-out-of-deals.html

Homebuyers are backing out of deals at the fastest pace in nearly a decade

Key Points

*More than 40,000 signed home purchase agreements were canceled in December, representing 16.3% of all homes that went under contract, according to Redfin.

*There were roughly 47% more home sellers than buyers in the market in December, according to the real estate brokerage.

*Atlanta saw the most contract cancellations in December.


A “sale pending” sign in front of a home for sale in Larkspur, California, Nov. 30, 2023.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Serious headwinds in the housing market and the broader economy are tanking home sales at an alarming rate.

More than 40,000 signed home purchase agreements were canceled in December, representing 16.3% of all homes that went under contract, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. That’s up from 14.9% in December 2024.

It’s is also the highest share since Redfin began tracking the metric in 2017.

“High housing costs and rising inventory have made homebuyers more selective,” said Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin. “Home sellers outnumber buyers by a record margin, meaning the buyers who are in the market have options and may walk away if they believe they can find a better or more affordable home.”

There were roughly 47% more home sellers than buyers in the market in December — or 631,535 more — according to a separate Redfin report. That is the largest gap in records dating back to 2013 and up 7.1 percentage points from the previous month.

“I call 2025 the year of the seller, because I had so many sellers reach out,” said Ashley Rummage, a real estate agent from Raleigh, North Carolina, who participated in the most recent CNBC Housing Market Survey. “They were reaching out because they had a lot of fear around the economy. They had a lot of uncertainty around the current administration, mortgage rates, affordability. These are all challenges this year.”

Regionally, Atlanta saw the highest percentage of contract cancellations in December at 22.5%. That was followed by Jacksonville, Florida, at 20.6%; San Antonio at 20.6%; Cleveland at 20.2%; and Tampa, Florida at 19.4%. Cancellations were the least common in the New York metropolitan area, San Francisco and San Jose, California.

Pending sales actually dropped an outsized 9% in December from November, according to the National Association of Realtors, so the numbers were already low. Given the high rate of cancellations, closed sales in January and February are likely to be quite weak.