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Trump: I would like to see rates go downUnited States President Donald Trump expressed on Tuesday his hope that the Federal Reserve will lower its interest rates at its next meeting on Wednesday, as "everything else is going down," including inflation, energy prices, and the crime rate.While at the Joint Base Andrews before leaving for Clive, Iowa, Trump spoke briefly to the press on a variety of issues. In a brief statement, he claimed that "very good things are happening" concerning the ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the US.Furthermore, Trump expressed certainty that "we'll figure something out" with Seoul after he decided to raise the tariff on South Korea's exports by 10% to 25%.
Dollar hits 4-year low as ‘chaotic’ policymaking tests investors’ nervesMany investors expect the dollar to weaken further in 2026The dollar fell 0.9% against a basket of other major currencies on Tuesday © Financial TimesThe US dollar hit a four-year low on Tuesday, as President Donald Trump’s erratic domestic and foreign policymaking further undermined global investors’ confidence in US assets. The greenback dropped 0.9 per cent against a basket of other major currencies, taking its fall in January to more than 2 per cent.Sterling and the euro hit corresponding four-year highs against the dollar. The euro rose 0.9 per cent to $1.199, while sterling rose 0.8 per cent to $1.379. Both currencies are at their highest points since the second half of 2021.“Gold strength and dollar weakness reflect serious doubts over chaotic, off-the-cuff policymaking by Trump” said Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset investing at Royal London Asset Management, citing the administration’s latest broadsides against Canada and South Korea. Gold has soared more than 18 per cent so far in January, hitting records and punching through $5,000 an ounce.“Credible hints that the US may intervene to buy the yen shows policymakers just don’t care about the downside risks to the dollar,” Greetham added, a reference to speculation in recent days that the US and Japan would jointly intervene in currency markets to stop the rapid depreciation of the yen against the greenback.Analysts at MUFG said the euro was “benefiting from its role as the anti-dollar”, as worries swirl over US policymaking.A number of issues are weighing on the US currency simultaneously, analysts said, including worries about a potential US government shutdown, sharp moves in the yen, rumours about the White House’s pick for chair of the Federal Reserve and tensions between the US and its Nato allies — which came to a head last week over Trump’s demands to take over Greenland.“Greenland reignited the dollar’s risk premium,” said Lefteris Farmakis, senior FX strategist at Barclays. “The upending of the post-World War II order is a long-term negative for the dollar,” he said, as it encourages investors to move out of dollar-denominated assets or to hedge their dollar exposure.Farmakis added that the FX intervention rumours were “amplifying” the fall in the US currency, by sending a signal of the administration’s willingness to let the dollar depreciate in a bid to support the competitiveness of US exports.Many investors expect the dollar to weaken further in 2026, with analysts at JPMorgan saying on Tuesday that “reasons to be bearish on the dollar remain intact”.Meanwhile, economic and political developments across the Atlantic have allowed investors to turn more positive on the euro and sterling.Recent economic data from Germany, the Eurozone’s biggest economy, has buoyed sentiment among some investors, said Constantin Bolz, head of G10 FX strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management.Germany’s economy grew 0.2 per cent in 2025 — its first positive reading since 2022 — while a closely watched measure of activity in the construction sector rose in January to its highest since 2022. A broader measure of economic sentiment in the country is at its highest level since 2021. “Over the last few weeks, we could see the first hard data showing [an economic] recovery,” Bolz said. “Europe hasn’t grown for the last 15 years. If this fiscal spending really lifts growth, that should be supportive [for the euro].”French political instability, which weighed on the euro last year, has also eased after the government survived two no-confidence votes last week over its budget plans. In the past week, the spread between French and German 10-year borrowing costs has shrunk from 0.67 percentage points to 0.56 points. In the UK, stronger economic data has combined with a “post-Budget bounce in sentiment” to support the pound, said Farmakis at Barclays. This month, traders have pushed back their bets on the next Bank of England rate cut from June to July.
Uno de los mayores fondos del mundo quiere levantar vivienda asequible en España: Blackstone analiza oportunidades en Madrid y Valencia"No hemos hecho nada aún porque no encontramos proyectos que encajen con los retornos exigidos por nuestro capital"
Intervention will not reverse yen weaknessLoose fiscal policy no longer makes sense now that Japan has escaped deflationSince there is no plan to stop citizens from moving their capital in and out of the country, or to prevent the Bank of Japan from setting interest rates as it sees fit, it follows that the authorities will be unable to fix the exchange rate © Toru Hanai/BloombergSince last Friday, when the US Treasury conducted a so-called “rate check” of market participants, the yen has jumped from around ¥159 per dollar to hold levels close to ¥153. It is a sizeable move, and while it remains unclear whether any intervention actually took place, the signalling by the US and Japan was the closest thing short of it. Intervention to strengthen the yen is unlikely to do much good, but equally, it is unlikely to do much harm. The bigger question to ponder for Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi — and her electorate — is why the yen is so persistently weak.Intervention is unlikely to do much good because of the basic trilemma of international economics. The trilemma states that it is not possible to have all three of a fixed exchange rate, free movement of capital and an independent monetary policy. Since there is no plan to stop Japanese citizens from moving their capital in and out of the country, or to prevent the Bank of Japan from setting interest rates as it sees fit, it follows that the authorities will be unable to fix the exchange rate. Empirical studies of currency intervention suggest there is a short-term impact on market prices that quickly dissipates.Intervention is unlikely to do much harm because the yen is, according to most estimates, extremely cheap. Japan has large foreign currency reserves — accumulated decades ago, during interventions when it was trying to hold the yen down, rather than prop it up — and converting some of those reserves back into yen at today’s advantageous exchange rates will realise a sizeable profit. As long as Japan does not try to fight the markets with massive, open-ended intervention, purchases now will most likely work out as a good trade, and not something the country has cause to regret.Whether intervention is verbal or actual, it may succeed in stabilising the yen for a few weeks, and with Japan going to the polls for a general election on February 8, Takaichi will be happy enough with that. The weakness of the currency, however, shows the downside of her populist fiscal policies. They include a proposal to suspend consumption tax on food for two years, on top of the large stimulus package she passed last November. Takaichi’s political imperative is to lower the cost of living, which has become the number one issue for the public, now that inflation has returned in Japan.While the country was suffering deflation, fiscal stimulus made sense in order to bolster demand and use spare capacity in the economy. Now that Japan has inflation, however, it is hard to understand the economic rationale: extra spending and borrowing by the government is likely to push up interest rates without much benefit to activity. Even more seriously, populist fiscal policy could raise concerns about Japan’s large public debt. The risks of a debt crisis are often overstated and there is little imminent danger. Nonetheless, if you are one of the world’s largest sovereign debtors relative to GDP, you should be prudent with the public finances unless there is good reason to act otherwise.The yen’s move was especially large because of the implication that the US Treasury might get involved in co-ordinated intervention. Its interest in the matter is clear: the weaker the yen, along with other Asian currencies such as the Korean won, the harder it is to reduce the US trade deficit. But just as it is at the Japanese end, the US trade deficit is driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand in the economy. Intervention in the yen is a flashy way to appear to be taking action, but if they want an actual appreciation in the Japanese currency, decision makers on both sides of the Pacific should look at policies closer to home.
Homebuyers are backing out of deals at the fastest pace in nearly a decadeKey Points*More than 40,000 signed home purchase agreements were canceled in December, representing 16.3% of all homes that went under contract, according to Redfin.*There were roughly 47% more home sellers than buyers in the market in December, according to the real estate brokerage.*Atlanta saw the most contract cancellations in December.A “sale pending” sign in front of a home for sale in Larkspur, California, Nov. 30, 2023.Justin Sullivan | Getty ImagesSerious headwinds in the housing market and the broader economy are tanking home sales at an alarming rate.More than 40,000 signed home purchase agreements were canceled in December, representing 16.3% of all homes that went under contract, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. That’s up from 14.9% in December 2024.It’s is also the highest share since Redfin began tracking the metric in 2017.“High housing costs and rising inventory have made homebuyers more selective,” said Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin. “Home sellers outnumber buyers by a record margin, meaning the buyers who are in the market have options and may walk away if they believe they can find a better or more affordable home.”There were roughly 47% more home sellers than buyers in the market in December — or 631,535 more — according to a separate Redfin report. That is the largest gap in records dating back to 2013 and up 7.1 percentage points from the previous month.“I call 2025 the year of the seller, because I had so many sellers reach out,” said Ashley Rummage, a real estate agent from Raleigh, North Carolina, who participated in the most recent CNBC Housing Market Survey. “They were reaching out because they had a lot of fear around the economy. They had a lot of uncertainty around the current administration, mortgage rates, affordability. These are all challenges this year.”Regionally, Atlanta saw the highest percentage of contract cancellations in December at 22.5%. That was followed by Jacksonville, Florida, at 20.6%; San Antonio at 20.6%; Cleveland at 20.2%; and Tampa, Florida at 19.4%. Cancellations were the least common in the New York metropolitan area, San Francisco and San Jose, California.Pending sales actually dropped an outsized 9% in December from November, according to the National Association of Realtors, so the numbers were already low. Given the high rate of cancellations, closed sales in January and February are likely to be quite weak.
Cuando el hombre más rico del mundo se arruinó por manipular la plataCarlos López · 2026.01.27Ahora que la plata está disparada (ha subido casi un 50% este mes) quiero recordaros una historia bastante curiosa. A finales de los 60, con una fortuna estimada entre 8 y 16 mil millones de dólares, Nelson Bunker Hunt fue bautizado por la prensa como el hombre más rico del mundo, era el heredero de la fortuna del magnate del petróleo Haroldson Lafayette Hunt, Jr.. Como no sabían muy bien que hacer con tanto dinero Hunt y dos de sus hermanos, Herbert y Lamar, comenzaron a comprar plata en 1970, cuando el precio rondaba el 1,50$ la onza. Sabían que íbamos a entrar en una depresión inflacionaria, y que la plata era una inversión razonable.Y siguieron comprando plata y más plata y en enero de 1980, su precio alcanzó un máximo histórico de 50$ la onza, y los hermanos acumularon casi 4.500 millones de dólares en plata, gran parte guardado en las cámaras acorazadas de los bancos suizos y otra gran parte en contratos de futuros.Los reguladores federales de las materias primas establecieron ciertos límites alarmados por las posesiones de los Hunt, y los precios cayeron. Los Hunt fueron incapaces de responder a los márgenes mínimos de sus contratos posteriores. Entonces, tras una liquidación la plata cayó en picado hasta niveles inferiores a los 11$ la onza, el jueves 27 de marzo de 1980. Perdieron más de 2.000 millones de dólares tras ser obligados a vender. Los Hunt fueron incapaces de cerrar los contratos de futuros y el pánico consiguiente se pudo sentir en los mercados financieros en general, así como en los de materias primas. Tal era el roto que habían dejado que y en los futuros que un consorcio de bancos en Estados Unidos proporcionó 1.100 millones de dólares en líneas de crédito a los hermanos Hunt para pagar sus deudas.Un jurado civil de Nueva York concluyó en 1988 que los hermanos habían utilizado el fraude y la conspiración para monopolizar el mercado de la plata mundial. Se le expulsó de por vida del mercado de materias primas estadounidense.Si un par de hermanos pudieron manipular el precio de una de las 10 materias primas más comercializadas del mundo y un grupo de foreros lo puede hacer con cualquier acción del mercado, ¿qué no podrá hacer, por ejemplo Blackrock que gestiona unos activos de más de 6.000.000.000.000 de dólares?
CorrespondenceThe growing risks to maritime safetyPublished 26 January 2026We, the Coastal States of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea (Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom) with Iceland, are approaching the International Maritime Community, especially flag and port states, national authorities, flag registries, classification societies, shipping companies, managers and operators as well as seafarers, with this letter. Dear Members of the International Maritime Community,Modern maritime transport is fundamentally built on the reliability of satellite-based navigation. For over three decades, global shipping has advanced by developing vessel operations to increasingly depend on the position, timing, and navigation (PTN) data provided by satellite systems. This shift has brought great efficiency but has also created a new dependency.The accurate and uninterrupted functioning of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is not a technical luxury; it is a critical safety requirement. GNSS signals support not only ship navigation but also precise time synchronisation vital for systems such as the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS). Disruption of these signals is a risk to the safety and reliability of maritime transport.We are now facing new emerging safety situations due to growing GNSS interference in European waters, particularly in the Baltic Sea region. These disturbances, originating from the Russian Federation, degrade the safety of international shipping. All vessels are at risk.Equally vital is the integrity of the Automatic Identification System (AIS), which plays a key role in traffic coordination, and enhances situational awareness and emergency response. Spoofing or falsifying AIS data undermines maritime safety and security, increases the risk of accidents, and severely hampers rescue operations.We therefore call upon the international maritime community and national authorities to:1) Recognise GNSS interference and AIS manipulation as threats to maritime safety and security.2) Ensure vessels have adequate capabilities and properly trained crew as required by international conventions to operate safely during navigation system outages.3) Cooperate on the development of alternative terrestrial radionavigation systems which may be used in place of GNSS in the event of disruption, loss of signal or interference.Maintaining trust in maritime navigation requires more than technology – it demands responsibility, transparency, and decisive action. We must ensure that our seas remain safe, including when systems fail or face disturbances.Furthermore, recognising the essential role of maritime transport in global trade and the economy, and emphasising the importance of safe, efficient, and environmentally sustainable shipping, we stress that the full and consistent implementation of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations is fundamental to ensuring maritime safety, the smooth functioning of shipping, and the protection of seafarers and the marine environment, especially in the new emerging situations affecting safety at sea, such as the increasing use of shadow fleet vessels to circumvent international sanctions.In order to uphold and strengthen maritime safety in the Baltic Sea and North Sea region, we require that all vessels exercising freedom of navigation strictly comply with applicable international law, whether customary international law or as contracting parties to international conventions, including the 1972 Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG), the 1974 International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) and all other relevant IMO conventions and resolutions which contain the generally accepted international rules and standards referred to in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).We wish to highlight, in particular, the following:1) Vessels shall sail under the flag of only one State and vessels that sail under the flags of two or more states, using them according to convenience, may be treated as a ship without nationality, as according to UNCLOS Article 92.2) Vessels must maintain valid documentation and certification according to the above-mentioned IMO conventions, including but not limited to insurance or other financial security in accordance with the rules laid down in Article VII of the 1992 Civil Liability Convention and Article 7 of the 2001 Bunker Convention.3) Companies must maintain a safety management system onboard the vessels operated, according to SOLAS Chapter IX (International Safety Management code).4) Flag States shall take any steps which may be necessary in order to ensure that ships flying their flag only proceed to sea in compliance with the requirements of the international rules and standards, including investigations for the maintenance of ships’ condition after survey according to UNCLOS art. 94 and 217 and SOLAS Regulation I/11. Such steps include prohibiting ships from sailing if they fail to comply with said requirements.5) Vessels, when underway, shall comply with the applicable requirements of the International Convention on Standards of Training, Certification, and Watchkeeping for Seafarers (STCW Convention), SOLAS Regulation V/14, and Rule 5 of the COLREGs regarding bridge watchkeeping and lookout.6) Vessels shall maintain the AIS and the Long-Range Identification and Tracking (LRIT) equipment continuously in operation according to SOLAS V/19.2.4.7 and A.1106(29) and SOLAS V/19-1.5.7) Vessels must provide information about ship identification and any other required information when entering an area covered by a ship reporting system according to SOLAS V/11.7: SOLAS V/11.7: 7 The master of a ship shall comply with the requirements of adopted ship reporting systems and report to the appropriate authority all information required in accordance with the provisions of each such system. Vessels must maintain clear communication with relevant maritime authorities including in communication regarding Ship Reporting Systems (SRS) and Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) (SOLAS V/11.7 SOLAS V/12.4 (VTS).9) Vessels shall comply with local navigation restrictions and any mandatory ships’ routeing systems adopted by IMO in accordance with SOLAS chapter V, regulation 10.7. Other IMO-adopted routing measures and areas to be avoided designated under IMO and Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM) frameworks shall be taken into account as appropriate for safe navigation. SOLAS V/10.7: 7 A ship shall use a mandatory ships’ routeing system adopted by the Organisation as required for its category or cargo carried and in accordance with the relevant provisions in force unless there are compelling reasons not to use a particular ships’ routeing system. Any such reason shall be recorded in the ship’s log.10) Vessels must report incidents involving discharges of oil and other harmful substances as required by international and national rules. (MARPOL art. 8 and Protocol I, International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-operation 1990, art. 4, Protocol on Preparedness, Response and Co-operation to pollution Incidents by Hazardous and Noxious Substances 2000, art. 3).11) Vessels shall carry on board shipboard oil and marine pollution emergency plans as required by the MARPOL Convention (Annex I Reg. 37, Annex II, Reg. 17).12) Vessels shall carry onboard flag approved ship-to-ship operations plans according to MARPOL Convention Annex I Reg. 41.13) Vessels shall not conduct ship-to-ship transfers without sufficient and timely notification to the coastal state in whose exclusive economic zone the transfer is to take place (MARPOL Annex I, Reg. 42).Co-signatories: The coastal states of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea (with Iceland) Belgium Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Iceland Latvia Lithuania The Netherlands Norway Poland Sweden The United KingdomSigning on behalf of The United Kingdom:Keir Mather MPParliamentary Under-Secretary of State (Minister for Aviation, Maritime and Decarbonisation)