PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2025

[Derby]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4566345-fed-rate-cut-no-longer-priced-in-for-2026

Fed rate cut no longer priced in for 2026

Wall Street has stopped believing in an interest-rate cut this year by the Federal Reserve.

Traders have now wiped out the last fully priced bet for a 2026 rate reduction, a move that comes a day after the Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and stuck with a single quarter-point cut in its median 2026 outlook.

Oil prices (CL1:COM) (CO1:COM) have surged since the conflict in the Middle East started at the end of February—stoking stagflation fears—though the Fed offered no hint that officials are ready to redraw the policy path on that basis alone. "It's too soon to know the scope and duration of potential effects on the economy," Fed Chair Jerome Powell had said during his post-meeting presser.

That leaves markets a step more hawkish than the Fed itself, with 6% odds of a Fed hike now baked in. In the Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections, the central bank lifted its inflation projections as the war in Iran sent energy prices sharply higher.

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/Netanyahu-Iran-has-no-ability-to-enrich-uranium/news/details/65912395

Netanyahu: Iran has no ability to enrich uranium

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on Thursday that Iran currently has "no ability" left to enrich uranium and "no capacity" to produce ballistic missiles after 20 days of war.

Netanyahu kicked off a press conference by saying, "I am alive." He then provided an update on Operation Roaring Lion. "Iran is weaker than ever" while Israel is a regional power "and some would say a world power," he added while saying that the military campaign against the Islamic Republic would continue for "as long as is necessary."

The prime minister went on to say that the United States was not drawn into the Iranian war by Israel. "Can anyone tell President Trump what to do?" he added

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/US-new-home-sales-slide-by-176percent-in-January/news/details/65909986

US new home sales slide by 17.6% in January

Sales of new single-family homes in the United States observed a monthly slump of 17.6% an an annual decline of 11.3% to land at 712,000 in January, the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development revealed in their report published on Thursday.

The median sales price decreased to $400,500, going down by 8% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year. The average sales price of new houses sold reached $499,500, decreasing by 5.95 on a monthly basis and 3.6% on an annual one.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of January was 476,000, a rise of 0.4% compared to December, yet, a decline of 4% in contrast with January 2025.

[Saturio]

Preguntas:
Son los USA autosuficientes en producción de energía?
Quién exporta GNL?
Qué bolsas están bajando menos?
Qué moneda se está apreciando?
En qué tipo de Mortadelo se paga el petróleo?

Sds.

Estados Unidos simplemente enmierdando gana (o evita perder o evita que otros ganen).

Es lo que llevan haciendo desde los 90. Enmierdaron Iraq, Afganistán y Siria con lo que "evitaron perder".
Si no somos totalmente conspiranoicos, al menos tenemos que aceptar que fueron una fuerza más empujando por el enmierdamiento de Túnez, Libia, Egipto y Ucrania.
En otros escenarios más exóticos (como África central) no sigo mucho el tema así que no sé muy bien qué están haciendo.

Una línea de fondo de la política usana (desde Clinton) es intentar equilibrar su balanza comercial. Negar mercados a otros, sobre todo negar los mercados energéticos donde ellos son exportadores netos (con algún detallito), es una acción que va en esa dirección.

Cuanto más equilibrada tengan la balanza comercial menos necesitan la supremacía del dólar. Evidentemente, llevan fallando décadas en el objetivo principal, así que las tensiones aumentan conforme el dólar pierde peso relativo en la economía mundial.

En resumen, yo diría que están intentando jugar (igual un poco desordenadamente) en los dos vectores. Intentar que el dólar se erosione lo mínimo posible como moneda de referencia en el comercio internacional e intentar cuadrar la balanza comercial.

Pero esto es una carrera a largo plazo. No pueden joder a los jeques.. Ellos están en el juego a cambio de protección. Si USA se va del teatro de operaciones y el estrecho queda cortado, los jeques no tienen ningún incentivo para seguir jugando ese juego. El 10% del PIB de los saudíes se va a defensa y supongo que la mayor parte se va a material, mantenimiento, licencias y entrenamiento americano. Es el señor feudal que no puede defender los intereses de sus vasallos (o que incluso va en contra de ellos).
¿Cuánto pueden tensar la cuerda en ese sentido?.
Para proyectar ese poder de enmierdamiento están despegando los B-1 desde UK. El Gerardo Ford se ha retirado a Creta. Los drones de largo alcance despegan desde Grecia...

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/19/federal-reserve-bank-capital-requirements

US moves to soften capital rules: ‘Big banks can declare mission accomplished’

Fed officials expected to lower capital requirements for banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase by 4.8%

US federal regulators are trying to soften bank requirements, loosening the amount of capital US banks must have, in what would be some of the biggest changes to bank restrictions since the 2008 financial crisis and a huge win for financial institutions.

On Thursday, US Federal Reserve officials are expected to vote to lower capital requirements – the funds they need to cover risky assets – for the biggest banks by 4.8%, which could free up capital for banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

Larger regional banks like PNC would see their requirements drop by 5.2%, while requirements banks with less than $100bn in assets would fall by 7.7%.

Capital requirements were increased after Wall Street’s risky bets triggered 2008 financial crisis. Elizabeth Warren, a Democratic senator and ranking member of the Senate banking committee, who helped create regulations after the 2008 financial crisis, said in a statement that the banking industry has been on “a multi-year lobbying assault to gut modest safeguards on Wall Street risk-taking”.

“Big banks can now declare mission accomplished. Today’s proposal grants their every wish,” Warren said. “It’ll mean bigger payouts for megabank shareholders and executives, less lending to small businesses and families, and a banking system even more prone to devastating crashes and taxpayer bailouts.”

The initiative has been spearheaded by Michelle Bowman, a Fed governor and the central bank’s vice-chair for supervision, who Donald Trump appointed last year.

In a speech at the Cato Institute last week, Bowman said the changes would provide “more efficient regulation and banks that are better positioned to support economic growth”.

“Following the 2008 financial crisis, regulators implemented reforms that substantially increased bank capital and strengthened financial system resilience,” Bowman said. “While these initial reforms were necessary, experience shows requirements that overly calibrate low-risk activities produce unintended consequences.”

The changes will be a major revision to Basel III, global banking regulations that were set up in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in 2023, US regulators were looking to tighten Basel III and make large banks hold more capital. But the major banks pushed back aggressively, arguing in 2024 that they helped stabilize the economy after SVB’s fall and that stronger regulations could lead more businesses to riskier lines of credit.

“It’s time to fight back,” Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, said at the time, adding that banks fear a “fight with their regulators, because they would just come and punish you more”.

The winds of regulation changed when Bowman replaced Michael Barr, a Fed governor who was the head of banking supervision under Joe Biden and was a staunch advocate for tighter capital requirements.

[Derby]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-have-spotted-a-pattern-in-markets-that-hasnt-been-seen-since-just-before-the-2008-crisis-c2158017

The bond market is flashing a signal not seen since before the 2008 crisis

The 2-year Treasury yield spikes above the fed-funds rate target and produces a deeper, worrisome trading pattern for investors


The 2-year yield rose above the fed-funds rate target, while the Treasury curve continued to flatten on Thursday. Photo: MarketWatch/Getty Images, iStockphoto

Troubling developments unfolded in the U.S. bond market on Thursday that had some investors drawing comparisons with the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.

The current problems start with rising oil prices as a result of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which is raising the risk of stagflation and the prospect of a 2026 interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, briefly blew past $119 a barrel on Thursday as attacks escalated on oil-and-gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. West Texas Intermediate crude-oil futures
briefly crossed $100 a barrel.

But even as oil prices have spiked and stock prices come down, Treasurys, often seen as a haven during times of market unease, haven’t rallied on a continual basis. Instead, fears that the war in the Middle East could morph into a full-blown energy crisis pushed the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield above the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate target on Thursday. Bond yields move inversely with prices and rise during selloffs.

Thursday’s bond-market selloff caused the Treasury yield curve to exhibit what traders describe as a “bear-flattening” pattern. This actually began back in early February. Typically, the pattern emerges when bond traders are bracing for a difficult economic environment ahead.



The confluence of these three developments — oil above $100 a barrel, a 2-year yield above the fed funds rate, and a bear-steepening dynamic in the bond market — is making some investors nervous.

The last time all three of those things unfolded simultaneously was in the late spring of 2008, according to Bloomberg data. About four or five months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed, ushering in the most acute phase of the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 declined 38.5% that year. Widespread mortgage defaults also resulted in many Americans losing their homes.

The current environment includes both similarities and differences to that troubling time. Whereas the 2008 crisis was triggered by the bursting of a housing bubble and the subsequent collapse of the subprime mortgage market, investors are currently focused on the continued war with Iran, which began on Feb. 28, as well as signs of increasing stress in the private-credit industry. Already, investors have been impacted by twin declines in stocks and bonds, which amount to a double-whammy for anybody holding their retirement savings in a 60-40 portfolio.

The current environment “does remind me of 2007-2008, when you did have cracks in the financial system,” said economist Derek Tang of Monetary Policy Analytics in Washington. The bad news now is “we are going into an energy-price shock and the Fed’s hands are tied because of inflation risks, which make it harder to cut rates.” This is all happening as the chance of a U.S. recession is growing, which is “not healthy”for risk assets. “That’s why people are on a knife’s edge right now.”

On Thursday, the 2-year yield, which is tied to expectations for the path of interest rates, jumped by as much as 21.8 basis points to an intraday high of almost 3.96% as the underlying government note aggressively sold off. The rate rose 8.8 basis points to 3.83% for the day, leaving it above the Fed’s interest-rate target of between 3.5% and 3.75%.



The 2-year yield climbed at a faster pace than the benchmark 10-year yield, which rose just 2.5 basis points to 4.28% —producing a bear-flattening pattern of the Treasury curve. The difference between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields shrank to around 45.1 basis points on Thursday from 51.5 basis points a day ago, and it is down from 74 basis points in early February.

The curve’s bear flattening is already hurting financial institutions, which rely on borrowing at short-term rates to lend at long-term rates, and retirement-age investors who held the 2-year Treasury note because of its cash-like qualities. As the note sells off, its yield rises so those older investors could have waited to buy at a lower price and higher yield. The bear-flattening’s significance to investors more broadly rests in the signals it sends about the likely upward path for interest rates and a negative economic outlook.

The 2-year rate is pricing in a scenario in which “the Fed will have to move into a rate-hiking cycle for the next few years,” said Ben Emons, founder of the New York-based investment management firm FedWatch Advisors, who added that he does not share this view.

However, a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis is not necessarily in the cards because “we’re not in stagflation yet and the economy is not as reliant on oil prices as it was back then,” Emons said in a phone interview. “We have private-credit issues, but there’s a difference between that and the subprime crisis at the time. The banking system is far more resilient than before.”

Fed-funds futures traders currently see a 95.9% chance of no change in borrowing costs this year and a 4.1% likelihood of one rate hike by December. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell lent some credence to the idea of a hike by saying officials have deliberated on whether their next move should be to lift rates, although this is not currently the central bank’s base-case scenario.

[muyuu]

Sobre los 200mil millones que el Pentágono ha pedido a la Casa Blanca para que ésta los solicite al Congreso: EEUU está gastando una media de 11.3 billion al día en la guerra con Irán. Es decir, con esos 200mil millones tendrían para 17 días más de guerra.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-war-cost-estimate-update-113-billion-day-6-165-billion-day-12

Está claro que Trump quiere que la situación en Irán esté bajo control antes de su visita a China y probablemente también quiera un acuerdo en Cuba para antes de esa fecha. Trump se ha dado a sí mismo 5 semanas, retrasando la reunión con Xi hasta finales de abril.

Yo creo que Trump manejaba varios escenarios para esta guerra y que probablemente no estemos (al menos de momento) en el peor de los posibles. Irán es un país muy fuerte pero lo están destrozando y no creo que China vaya a apoyarles de forma que se ponga en peligro el statu quo mundial ya que hundir ahora a su rival estratégico (EEUU) supondría su propia ruina económica. Lo que sí puede ocurrir es que el conflicto se cronifique a intensidades más bajas, lo que sería una mala noticia para todos.

Todo esto tiene pinta de patada hacia adelante con la pasividad cómplice de China y Rusia pero los procesos de fondo de la transición estructural continuarán, incluida la necesaria 'desinmobiliarización'. En mi humilde opinión es posible 'desenladrillar' sin crear una crisis sistémica. ¡Y ojalá NO me equivoque!

la parte más truculenta de una guerra de 3 semanas son los primeros 3 meses