PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2026

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/Powell-We-have-resilient-financial-system-now/news/details/65978863

Powell: We have 'resilient' financial system now

United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday that the country's current financial system is "resilient" amid global challenges.

"We have significantly hardened the system against the kind of losses seen in the financial crisis," Powell stated at Harvard University, adding that the Fed is monitoring private credit for things that may lead to contagion or greater losses in the banking system.

Moreover, the chair also stressed that the Fed must maintain its independence regarding monetary policy, but that regulation requires a different approach, particularly since the Dodd-Frank Act. He also stressed that the "whole idea" behind the position of the Fed's chairman is to be "nonpolitical."

[Cadavre Exquis]

(Inicialmente lo he puesto en este post del hilo de "La burbuja de la IA" pero creo que es lo suficientemente relevante como para traerlo también al principal)

How the AI bubble bursts

Martín Volpe · 2026.03.30

Picture by Bloomberg

The catalysts for a crash are already laid out, and it can happen sooner than most expect. AI is here to stay. If used right, chances are it will make us all more productive. That, on the other hand, does not mean it will be a good investment.

Big tech doesn’t need to win, just outspend

Magnificent 7 companies are increasing capex to their biggest ever to differentiate their tech from each other and the big AI labs, but the key realization is that they don’t have to spend it to win. It’s a defensive move for them, if they commit $50B, OpenAI and Anthropic need to go raise $100B each to stay competitive, which makes them reliant on investors’ money. As the numbers get bigger, the amount of funds that can write checks of the size required to fill such amounts gets smaller. And many of them are now getting bombed in the Gulf.

This is the reason there’s a push for IPOs, it’s because it’s the only option left to keep the funding coming.

Taking this into account, Google is extremely well positioned to weather the storm. When they announce capex expenditure, they don’t spend it overnight. They can simply deploy month by month until their competitors struggle to raise and get forced to capitulate. At that point they can just ramp down the spending and declare victory in a cornered market. They don’t need capex, they just need to make it very clear for everyone that nobody can outspend them. It is hard to picture as numbers get so big, but Alphabet (Google’s parent) is ten times more valuable than the biggest military company¹.

This also has a great implication for the Mag 7, especially Google: their capex will be a lot smaller in practice than projected, and as investors hate to see high capex in tech, the market will probably reward that if it materializes.

Apple didn’t even have to pretend, their strategy of waiting on the sidelines, while selling Mac Minis, for someone to come up with a good-enough model and just buy that when it’s done seems to be working. They may not even do that, they are now hinting at charging models for being available on Siri. Amazon is hedged with an Anthropic investment, and Meta is spending like there’s no tomorrow.

The catalyzer

We’re hitting the worst-case scenarios for the big AI labs: energy, their biggest expense, is at multi-year highs, capital from the Gulf is not available for obvious reasons, there are serious concerns about a rate hike, and RAM prices are crashing because new models won’t need as much, but labs already bought them at sky-high prices. And that last innovation came from their biggest competitor, Google.

Anthropic is already in a push to reduce costs and increase revenue. If investor money dries up, they will be forced to cut their losses and pass the true costs to their users. The question is now if customers will be willing to pay up. Independent reports state that Claude metered models are priced 5x more expensive than their subscribers pay², and nobody is sure if even their metered pricing is profitable. In investing, stories are way more exciting than reality: a company losing money but growing like crazy is an easier sell than a huge company losing money or with tight margins. Raising prices will for sure decrease demand and that risks killing the growth story. And even if revenue keeps growing, it doesn’t matter if there are no margins — growing revenue without profits just means burning cash faster, especially when competing against companies that can offer the same product as a loss leader bundled into their cloud platforms.

It’s also worth mentioning that Claude’s most expensive subscription plans (Max and Max 5x, priced at $100 and $200 respectively) do not allow for yearly payments, hinting prices will go up³.

OpenAI’s endgame

OpenAI is struggling to monetize. They turned to showing ads in ChatGPT, something Sam Altman once called a “last resort”, while Anthropic is crushing them with the more profitable corporate customers and software engineers. Their shopping feature flopped and they shut down Sora, both supposed to be revenue drivers.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if in the next couple of quarters we see OpenAI looking for an exit. It will be interesting because the sizes are now so big that we will probably know all the details. The most likely buyer is Microsoft, they already own a lot of it, and because of that, they are the most interested in showing a win. Sam Altman managed to get Microsoft so involved in OpenAI that making sure it lands on its feet is a Microsoft problem to solve. But, would shareholders vote to spend 22% of an established company’s market cap to rescue a money-burning AI lab that has lost most of its differentiators?⁴

And independent of whether Microsoft makes money or not in their OpenAI endeavor, it kills the story: they were betting the whole growth story on AI, and if that doesn’t work out, then what’s left to justify a high stock price? They lose a big customer for their cloud services. Even worse considering that now, using the AI they helped fund, everyone can compete with their sub-par products. GitHub is a good candidate for disruption, and that’d be just the start.

How this all affects you

You may think that you’re not affected by the big labs struggling. Hell, you may even be happy that they won’t be replacing your job after all. But that is far from reality.

Investments are now so big that writing them off would certainly hurt public companies’ balance sheets, and their growth prospects. This will drag the whole market, reducing valuations and slowing M&A, which further dries up VC money and slows down investments. Just like it happened in 2022.

And this has even more ramifications, pension funds around the world will take a hit. Datacenters that were built with the expectation of growth will now be undercapacity, because as training is the most compute-intensive part of a model, if there’s no capital to train a new one, they won’t be needed. GPUs then sit idle while their value goes down as there’s no demand. Some committed GPUs may never get delivered, or even manufactured. Investment drying up is a disaster for Nvidia, now the biggest company in the world.

It could happen that datacenters are not underused, but they get to charge their customers a way lower rate than they projected before building, so everyone benefits from AI but them.

Building a datacenter is supposed to be a “safe” investment in normal times, so banks give private credit and mortgages to finance them. A write-off of those assets means that banks start realizing losses, hurting their capacity to loan, and some may even be forced to liquidate, just like we saw in 2023. And all this assumes we don’t get disruptions in manufacturing in Taiwan or global supply chains.

Of course, the content of this article is highly speculative, it may end up being that demand for models is just so high it offsets every other problem I lay. But almost all innovations go through a boom and bust cycle and I don’t see a reason this is an exception.

Thanks to Javier Silveira and Augusto Gesualdi for reviewing drafts of this post.


Footnotes

• As of March 2026, Alphabet’s market cap is ~$2T while Lockheed Martin’s is ~$120B.
• It’s actually difficult to estimate the true cost of the subscription, as not everyone uses all their credits, and some enterprise customers may not even use it at all.
• They could also hint clients will renew at higher rates, but given the cash crunch described in this post it seems a way less realistic scenario. Yearly subscriptions are a way to get (almost) a year’s worth of revenue now.
• Microsoft is worth ~$2.8T and owns ~27% of OpenAI, which was last valued at ~$840B. Acquiring the remaining ~73% would cost ~$613B, roughly 22% of Microsoft’s market cap.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/swiss-real-estate-scion-lauber-joins-rush-to-access-retail-cash

Swiss Real Estate Scion Lauber Joins Rush to Access Retail Cash

Infinitas Capital, a Swiss family office run by real estate heir Robin Lauber, plans to launch a new investment company that will seek a listing on Nasdaq Stockholm.

Infinitas will parcel up stakes it holds in private technology companies, such as defense startup Destinus, into a new vehicle called Aureon Capital, Lauber said in an interview. The company will acquire other assets from Lauber’s broader network of wealthy individuals and family offices and plans to launch in mid-2026.

The Lauber family made its money in real estate, with Robin Lauber diversifying through the family office into tech and other growth sectors. Aureon Capital will seek approval to list later in the year, and aims to raise as much as $20 million.

Lauber picked Stockholm due to its strong retail investment culture. “You have such a wide retail adoption,” he said. “In Sweden, venture capital is happening in public markets.”

The move underscores a broader shift in private markets: as companies take longer to go public, much of the value has been captured by institutional investors well before retail backers can buy in. Vehicles such as Aureon Capital want to democratize access, but also come with risks such as opaque valuation logic and any potential mismatch between a fund’s share price and the value of its holdings.

Lauber’s family office joins a growing number of investment firms for the ultra-wealthy opening up to external capital as the typically discreet money managers increase in scale and sophistication.

The family holding company of billionaire compatriot Ernesto Bertarelli has courted funds from other wealthy individuals in recent years for hedge fund investments. The Dutch-German Brenninkmeijer dynasty behind clothing giant C&A AG has also increasingly opened up a business empire spanning real estate and private equity over the past decade, accelerating their efforts to shift their wealth away from the consumer retail sector.

Aureon Capital hopes to compete with Flat Capital, a listed technology investment company set up by Klarna Group Plc Chief Executive Officer Sebastian Siemiatkowski. The fund’s share price tanked after it agreed to buy a holding company containing Siemiatkowski’s Klarna shares, boosting its exposure to the stock.

Lauber traces his fortune back to his grandparents building a business trading food and vegetables in Switzerland, with the family later investing in real estate. He has expanded his family office’s activities beyond property into areas such as fintech, neuroscience and aerospace.

[Fomento Cemento]

https://www.baha.com/Powell-We-have-resilient-financial-system-now/news/details/65978863

Powell: We have 'resilient' financial system now

United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday that the country's current financial system is "resilient" amid global challenges.

"We have significantly hardened the system against the kind of losses seen in the financial crisis," Powell stated at Harvard University, adding that the Fed is monitoring private credit for things that may lead to contagion or greater losses in the banking system.

Moreover, the chair also stressed that the Fed must maintain its independence regarding monetary policy, but that regulation requires a different approach, particularly since the Dodd-Frank Act. He also stressed that the "whole idea" behind the position of the Fed's chairman is to be "nonpolitical."

Jerónimo es un cachondo:

NOW - Jerome Powell on the $38,990,000,000,000 U.S. national debt: "We don't have to pay the debt down, we just need to have primary balance and begin to have the economy actually growing better... It will not end well if we don't do something fairly soon."

[breades]

Sudden, se lo voy a plantear desde el punto de vista religioso, y luego desde el punto de vista seglar, racional, con el objetivo de que se vea como ambos planteamientos nos llevan al misma final.

El pueblo ha demostrado su inmoralidad, su rapacidad, su egoísmo y cortedad de miras, su empeño en desclasarse del estamento obrero a costa de la esclavitud financiera de otros de su misma clase y de sus propios hijos, a base de especular, no de trabajar y obtener riqueza con el sudor de su frente, que es lo moralmente correcto . Es decir, se ha portado mal, cometiendo un delito de lesa humanidad, si hacemos una interpretación extensa de ese concepto - provocar una debacle demográfica por todos los niños no nacidos por culpa de la precariedad habitacional permitíria aplicar esa figura -

 Cómo se ha dicho aquí el liberalismo auténtico parte de que el ser humano es libre para actuar correctamente o incorrectamente y este último caso debe sufrir las consecuencias. En este caso el desplome de la burbuja inmobiliaria con ellos dentro del artefacto.

Desde el punto de vista puramente racional, lo que no se puede esperar es que dentro del sistema economico capitalista de mercado haya activos - fíjese que estoy partiendo de considerar la vivienda como un activo financiero, como una forma de dinero, lo cual no seria correcto dado que es ilíquido, pero venga, va, aceptamos barco- y dar por hecho que, como cualquier otro activo, no está sujeto a depreciación, solo a crecimiento o mantenimiento - hasta los depósitos a plazo fijo sufren una depreciación que puede ser brutal, en caso de quiebra de la entidad financiera -. Ello más aún cuando el activo es objeto de una burbuja especulativa, en este caso de expectativas-. No admitir eso es no admitir la naturaleza del capitalismo financierizado, que es lo que ha permitido que la vivienda sea considerada objeto de inversión.

No sé puede estar al plato y a las tajadas, y pensar lo contrario es ir contra la naturaleza misma del modelo capitalista financiero que se instauro en los 80 y que se basa en la inestabilidad y las fluctuaciones continuas de activos - la economía de burbujas de Larry Summers-. Si el proletariado pensó que iba a haber un activo seguro se engaño a si mismo, y eso no le exime de la perdida patrimonial.

Ya no entro en que la absorcion o esterilización de capital inmovilizado en ladrillo acaba con el capital circulante que es la base del proceso de reproducción y crecimiento de capital - la generacion del plusvalor vía proceso productivo-.

Lo que usted plantea es que actuar mal, tanto desde el punto de vista moral/religioso como desde el racional o desde la logica del modelo actual de capitalismo financiero o desde el punto de vista del funcionamiento del sistema capitalista tradicional, no tenga consecuencias.

Y eso no es ni posible ni deseable.

El pueblo ha sido empujado, animado, adoctrinado, obligado a esta inmoralidad ladrillil o caseril. Prueba de ello es que antes no lo era y nunca un pisito, alquiler o habitación fueron la estafa que es hoy día

Así es, pero también es cierto que ahora lo defiende hasta el punto de mantenernos en una guerra civil incruenta.

En este asunto nadie es inocente.

Bastaría con un acto de contrición y su voluntad para cambiar el panorama, pero no quieren, aún siendo conscientes de que es una estafa.

En un Estado de Derecho, apelar a actos de contrición para que acabe la estafa ladrillera impulsada legalmente por los “Reagan, Thatcher, Felipe o Boyer” todos con sus leyes ladrilliles, con la Banca financiando exclusivamente promotores, constructoras, hipotecas al 100% , con el precio del dinero por el suelo, euríbor negativo, desprecio absoluto al dinero por parte de política y banca, y políticas públicas destinadas a ello por parte de izquierdas y derechas de todo tipo, cerrando y abandonando industria, ganadería, campo, etc pues es bastante sorprendente. Ya puestos que hagan otro acto de contrición y dejen de usar internet y leer toda la literatura del siglo de Oro español (que fue más de un siglo). ¡Pero toda! Empezando por el Teatro y el Quijote. Otro acto de contrición interesante sería volver al cristianismo y rechazar los valores de la sociedad actual. Sería más útil y enriquecedor

No es una apelación; es una constatación de la única solución pacífica. Tan sencillo y tan complejo como eso.

Obviamente la solución que veremos no va a ser pacífica, no soy un ingenuo.

[Elcasco]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/13848911/03/26/la-vivienda-como-inversion-se-desploma-y-pasa-de-suponer-la-mitad-a-un-tercio-de-las-compras-segun-asufin.html

La vivienda como inversión se desploma y pasa de suponer la mitad a un tercio de las compras, según Asufin

Cae la inversión, pero se dispara la compra de primera vivienda y el cambio de residencia habitual

Las dudas sobre la rentabilidad y el miedo a menores beneficios enfrían la compra con fines especulativos

La hipoteca mixta se consolida como la opción más competitiva y barata, por delante de las fijas y variables

30/03/2026 - 11:28

El peso de la vivienda para inversión se reduce del 56,2% del total de las compras de vivienda en 2025 al 33,7% en el presente ejercicio, según el último barómetro de hipotecas de la Asociación de Usuarios Financieros (Asufin) que recoge la agencia Europa Press. Así, la adquisición de propiedades con fines de inversión se desploma y pasa de suponer la mitad a un tercio de las compras de inmuebles. En este sentido, el dato de 2026 representa un descenso de 22,5 puntos porcentuales y marca un giro en la composición de la demanda.

Tal y como refleja el estudio, en el que se han entrevistado a 2.001 personas de entre 18 y 54 años de todo el territorio nacional, las hipotecas vinculadas a una primera vivienda pasan del 14,4% al 20,8% en tan solo un año, mientras que el cambio de vivienda habitual sube desde el 10,30% hasta el 27,50% en el mismo periodo de tiempo. Por su parte, la segunda vivienda para residir se mantiene en el 18%, ligeramente por debajo del 19,10% registrado el año anterior.

"El resultado es un mercado más equilibrado que hace doce meses. Si en 2025 la inversión superaba ampliamente la mitad de las decisiones de compra, en 2026 el peso se reparte de forma mucho más homogénea. Este cambio sugiere que, si bien el acceso sigue siendo complejo, existe una mayor saturación y dudas sobre la rentabilidad real de la inversión inmobiliaria", explican los analistas del Departamento de Estudios de Asufin.

Además, los expertos argumentan que "el temor a un menor rendimiento en la reventa o el alquiler está provocando un desplazamiento del capital hacia otros activos, enfriando la compra con fines especulativos".

Sin embargo, la inversión en ladrillo sigue estando bien vista por los ciudadanos españoles. Así, un 66,4% de los encuestados identifica la vivienda como una sólida oportunidad de inversión y como principal razón para pedir un crédito para su compra.

La segunda motivación, según los consultados, es que las condiciones de financiación son mejores, con un 20,1%. En cambio, la expectativa de encontrar mejores precios sigue perdiendo fuerza: en 2026 baja al 7,10%, frente al 9,70% de 2025.

Respecto al coste de la financiación, el informe de Asufin señala que la tasa anual equivalente (TAE) media de las hipotecas se ha reducido del 3,95% en febrero de 2025 al 3,82% en febrero de 2026, gracias la ligera bajada del Euribor, aunque matizan que "el ajuste no es homogéneo, sino que varía de forma notable según tipo de hipoteca".

La hipoteca mixta se consolida

Así, las hipotecas mixtas sin vinculaciones se consolidan como la opción más competitiva, al bajar del 4,20% al 3,87%, posicionándose como la modalidad más barata. De su lado, las variables mantienen un ajuste moderado en paralelo al Euribor y se reducen hasta el 4,01%. Mientras, las fijas, lejos de abaratarse, repuntan, y se elevan hasta el 4,10% TAE.

Entre los préstamos a la vivienda con vinculación, las diferencias son más ajustadas entre modalidades, con una ventaja ligera para las mixtas. Así, la TAE media se sitúa en 3,71% para la fija, 3,64% para la variable y 3,62% para la mixta.

Al mismo tiempo, un 12,10% de los consumidores que pensaba solicitar una hipoteca en los próximos seis meses finalmente ha decidido no hacerlo. Según la organización, el dato confirma el "desánimo" entre la ciudadanía motivado por los "obstáculos" en el acceso la vivienda.

En paralelo, el porcentaje de quienes no pensaban pedir hipoteca y ahora sí lo harían se reduce hasta el 1,60%, frente al 2,00% registrado el año anterior. "Los datos parecen indicar que pese al crecimiento importante del mercado hipotecario el año pasado, no hay que descartar signos de contracción, como efecto directo de la subida del precio de la vivienda", exponen los autores del barómetro.

[Vipamo]

https://youtu.be/S3m6fni4XOM?is=Tp6UiHZ4u4mnA_mz

Boots on the ground…espero que traigan a John Rambo.