PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2026

[Flipback]

@Negrule, así es.... Y si bajan, como en la crisis posterior a 2008, pues tampoco se puede decir que bajen realmente porque casi nadie podía comprar. Así es el 'ofertademandismo', ¿de qué sirve que bajen los precios por un 'shock' económico temporal si tampoco puede comprar vivienda quien la necesita? En cuanto llega la 'recuperación' vuelven a subir.

Precios altos = inasequibilidad
Precios bajos como resultado de 'shock' = inasequibilidad.

Por mucho que bajen los precios no servirá de nada si no se resuelve el problema, que es que la vivienda sea un 'hactibo' en vez de un bien de uso duradero.

[senslev]

Ahí es donde entra la planificación central, la vivienda para vivir. Que la vivienda baje sólo perjudica a los que tienen 2 o más, los que tienen la vivienda habitual y quieren cambiar, tampoco pueden. ¿Cómo es posible que la gente esté encantada de vivir en la KK, seremos unos cerdos?

[Derby]

Cualquiera diría que va ganando la guerra... 

https://www.baha.com/Trump-says-Iran-has-48-hours-to-make-deal-or-face-hell/news/details/66012555

Trump says Iran has 48 hours to make deal or face 'hell'

United States President Donald Trump threatened Iran on Saturday ahead of the April 6 deadline, claiming that "all hell will reign down" on Tehran if it doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz or reach a nuclear agreement with Washington.

"Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out - 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD," Trump warned in a post on Truth Social.

Previously, the US president declared that Washington is "getting rid of nuclear Iran."

[senslev]

Los que estén en el hell son los que tienen que ver esto:

https://www.idealista.com/inmueble/110245423/

15m2

Oportunidad: Se alquila Loft Estudio totalmente amueblado especial para deducirse el IVA para autónomos y empresas. 620 + IVA (750€).

2 meses de fianza que iran despositadas al IVIMA.

No entiendo nada.

[asustadísimos]

[Sí están usándose bombas nucleares:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRExzZ-uAL0]

[Derby]

https://as.com/actualidad/sociedad/rocio-propietaria-de-mas-de-70-habitaciones-de-alquiler-revela-cuanto-tarda-en-recuperar-la-inversion-gano-unos-410-por-piso-f202604-n/

Rocío, propietaria de más de 70 habitaciones de alquiler, revela cuánto tarda en recuperar la inversión: “Gano unos 410 € por piso”

Cuenta con cinco viviendas destinadas al alquiler tradicional y gestiona 75 habitaciones enfocadas al subarriendo. “Con muy poquita inversión empiezas a generar ingresos”.



La inversora inmobiliaria Rocío, en el programa “Cómo hacer rent to rent en España (con poco dinero)” del podcast Libertad Inmobiliaria, cuenta cómo ha creado su ‘imperio’. “El riesgo para mi es no hacer nada, pero nunca había hecho nada. Empecé con un piso, fue la inversión más difícil, compré en diciembre de 2019 en Zaragoza”, comienza relatando, dejando claro que se ha basado en tablas numéricas y Excell para saber cuál era la mejor decisión.

Años después, y con una cartera de inmuebles muy grande, los datos sí le salen. Según explica, obtiene un beneficio de 410 euros por vivienda (mínimo): entre las viviendas que maneja: cinco viviendas destinadas al alquiler tradicional y también gestiona 75 habitaciones enfocadas al subarriendo.

“Gano más que en mi trabajo”, señala, y es que las cuentas salen.

Para reacondicionar los pisos, afirma que destina una media de 3.000 euros para amueblar cada piso, para que estén equipados con todo lo necesario básico para vivir. “También hay que acondicionarlos para que, si el inquilino quiere, pueda hacerse una tortilla francesa el primer día”, detalla.

“La oportunidad está siempre ahí”, añade, destacando que el hecho que todo su entorno conozca lo que hace, ofrece mayor difusión a lo que busca, y todo el mundo se acuerde de ella a la hora de buscar habitación, pisos, etc... “Mi peor error es precipitarme a la hora de llenar una habitación”.

Qué es el modelo rent to rent

La asesora inmobiliaria detalla que el modelo rent to rent se basa en alquilar una vivienda a un propietario para, posteriormente, subarrendar sus habitaciones. “Al propietario puedes pagarle, por ejemplo, un poco más de lo que está pidiendo y decirle que te vas a encargar absolutamente de todo. Se va a olvidar totalmente de que tiene un piso“, destaca.

En cuanto a lo que más busca, “mi piso típico y ahora el que más tengo, está en barrio trabajador, con tres habitaciones más salón independiente, que se convierte en la cuarta habitación. Casi todos son sin ascensor, con una reforma básica, tipo lavado de cara", aclara.

De ese modelo de negocio, sus cuentas son claras: “En un piso típico, como mínimo, me tiene que salir un beneficio de unos 410 euros (invierte unos 3.000 euros por piso)“. Por tanto, en tan solo dos/tres meses recupera la inversión (dependiendo las habitaciones que tenga ese piso). “Está súper bien y, además, tiene mucho sentido, porque es el precio de una habitación. Creo que puede ser una vía de entrada para empezar a invertir que tiene mucho sentido, porque al final con muy poquita inversión empiezas a generar ingresos”, añade.

https://youtu.be/ZD91YJpb9jE

[Fomento Cemento]

https://as.com/actualidad/sociedad/rocio-propietaria-de-mas-de-70-habitaciones-de-alquiler-revela-cuanto-tarda-en-recuperar-la-inversion-gano-unos-410-por-piso-f202604-n/

Rocío, propietaria de más de 70 habitaciones de alquiler, revela cuánto tarda en recuperar la inversión: “Gano unos 410 € por piso”

Cuenta con cinco viviendas destinadas al alquiler tradicional y gestiona 75 habitaciones enfocadas al subarriendo. “Con muy poquita inversión empiezas a generar ingresos”.



La inversora inmobiliaria Rocío, en el programa “Cómo hacer rent to rent en España (con poco dinero)” del podcast Libertad Inmobiliaria, cuenta cómo ha creado su ‘imperio’. “El riesgo para mi es no hacer nada, pero nunca había hecho nada. Empecé con un piso, fue la inversión más difícil, compré en diciembre de 2019 en Zaragoza”, comienza relatando, dejando claro que se ha basado en tablas numéricas y Excell para saber cuál era la mejor decisión.

Años después, y con una cartera de inmuebles muy grande, los datos sí le salen. Según explica, obtiene un beneficio de 410 euros por vivienda (mínimo): entre las viviendas que maneja: cinco viviendas destinadas al alquiler tradicional y también gestiona 75 habitaciones enfocadas al subarriendo.

“Gano más que en mi trabajo”, señala, y es que las cuentas salen.

Para reacondicionar los pisos, afirma que destina una media de 3.000 euros para amueblar cada piso, para que estén equipados con todo lo necesario básico para vivir. “También hay que acondicionarlos para que, si el inquilino quiere, pueda hacerse una tortilla francesa el primer día”, detalla.

“La oportunidad está siempre ahí”, añade, destacando que el hecho que todo su entorno conozca lo que hace, ofrece mayor difusión a lo que busca, y todo el mundo se acuerde de ella a la hora de buscar habitación, pisos, etc... “Mi peor error es precipitarme a la hora de llenar una habitación”.

Qué es el modelo rent to rent

La asesora inmobiliaria detalla que el modelo rent to rent se basa en alquilar una vivienda a un propietario para, posteriormente, subarrendar sus habitaciones. “Al propietario puedes pagarle, por ejemplo, un poco más de lo que está pidiendo y decirle que te vas a encargar absolutamente de todo. Se va a olvidar totalmente de que tiene un piso“, destaca.

En cuanto a lo que más busca, “mi piso típico y ahora el que más tengo, está en barrio trabajador, con tres habitaciones más salón independiente, que se convierte en la cuarta habitación. Casi todos son sin ascensor, con una reforma básica, tipo lavado de cara", aclara.

De ese modelo de negocio, sus cuentas son claras: “En un piso típico, como mínimo, me tiene que salir un beneficio de unos 410 euros (invierte unos 3.000 euros por piso)“. Por tanto, en tan solo dos/tres meses recupera la inversión (dependiendo las habitaciones que tenga ese piso). “Está súper bien y, además, tiene mucho sentido, porque es el precio de una habitación. Creo que puede ser una vía de entrada para empezar a invertir que tiene mucho sentido, porque al final con muy poquita inversión empiezas a generar ingresos”, añade.

https://youtu.be/ZD91YJpb9jE

A los monstruos no mirar...

- Rent-to-rent.
- Empezó en Zaragoza.
- Excel con 2 eles.
- 3.000 € por acondicionar un piso.
- En el salón otra habitación.

No sé, Rick.

[Derby]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/04/04/iran-war-global-economy/

Americans are feeling the Iran war’s economic pain with hints of worse ahead

Even if the conflict resolves in the next few weeks, some economic pain will linger for months.


Gas prices in Los Angeles on Thursday at more than $6 per gallon. (Daniel Cole/Reuters)

Amazon is adding a fuel surcharge to its e-commerce deliveries. Mortgage rates have risen to their highest mark in seven months. And consumers may soon see higher prices for soda bottles and detergents.

These are all early indications of the Iran war’s impact on the U.S. economy. So far, the costs of the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign have been modest, especially compared with the economic turmoil roiling Asia, and U.S. growth remains solid. On Friday, the Labor Department said employers added a robust 178,000 jobs in March.

But like thunderclaps that herald an advancing storm, rising energy bills, interest rates and supply shortfalls may be warnings of worse to come.

Americans, by a margin of 56 percent to 7 percent, expect the war to have a “mostly negative impact” on their personal financial situation, according to a March 31 Ipsos poll. A Middle East conflict that lasts for several more months would almost certainly spread higher prices and supply chain disruption beyond Asia and Europe to American shores.

“I don’t think the U.S. will avoid it. These are global markets,” said Rachel Ziemba, a New York-based analyst who advises corporations on geopolitical risk. “Experts, even a week ago, were worried. Now they are more worried.”

President Donald Trump has suggested the war could end later this month and told the nation on Wednesday that the conflict was “nearing completion.” Oil market pricing shows that investors anticipate a return to normal operations in the Middle East by midsummer.

But Friday brought reminders of the danger of an escalatory cycle that could prolong the fighting. The two-person crew of a U.S. F-15 fighter were reported missing after their plane was downed by Iranian fire. (One was later rescued.) And Kuwaiti authorities said an Iranian missile had struck a desalination plant, which the kingdom depends on for drinking water supplies.

The Iranian chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil supplies pass each year, represents the largest energy shock in history, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris.

A three-month interruption of normal maritime commerce would drive oil prices to $170 per barrel, said Bloomberg Economics. If the war lasts for six months, the global economy — starved of 13 million barrels of oil each day — would sink into a recession, Oxford Economics said on Thursday.

Blocking the strait already has cost the global economy hundreds of millions of barrels of oil, with the effects felt on a rolling basis that corresponds with travel time from the Persian Gulf, said a recent client note from JPMorgan’s commodities specialists.

First to feel the loss of Gulf oil shipments was Asia, where governments have ordered rationing and conservation measures. Europe is likely to suffer physical shortages by mid-April as the last vessels that were loaded with oil before the war arrive at continental ports.

Since it takes 35 to 45 days to reach U.S. ports from the strait, the United States will be the last market to suffer. Prices will rise, but shortages of refined products starting in late April or May will probably be confined to California, which is physically isolated from the nation’s fuel supply system, the JPMorgan report said.

“We will only have shortages if we ration. Otherwise, we’ll experience price shocks,” said Robert McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, a policy analysis firm in D.C.

Disruption of seaborne traffic through the strait affects more than oil and gas shipments. The region produces other critical commodities, including aluminum and helium, used to produce semiconductors.

Agricultural exporters in South America and Asia face a shortage of refrigerated shipping containers with thousands trapped in the Gulf. Food shipments to the Gulf states soared right before the war as stores stocked up for Ramadan and the Eid-al-Fitr festival, customarily celebrated by family feasts.

“You have an enormous mountain of empty reefer containers in the Gulf countries. Right now they can’t get out. But those reefers are now needed to be moved to other places in the world where harvesting season is coming,” said Lars Jensen, chief executive of Vespucci Maritime in Copenhagen.

Outside the U.S., government officials speak of the looming crisis in dire terms.

In a televised address Wednesday, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warned his voters that “the months ahead may not be easy.” In London, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that the world was on a “volatile path.” South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said “the situation is so serious it even keeps me up at night.” The Marshall Islands declared a 90-day national emergency over fuel shortages.

Financial markets across Asia and Europe have taken a beating since the war’s onset. South Korean stocks are down more than 12 percent. Jakarta’s main index has lost 10 percent, while Mumbai’s slid by 9 percent. Investors in Europe’s main markets have lost about 8 percent.

On Wall Street, the losses have been modest by comparison: The S&P 500 index has given up around 4 percent. Investors expect strong earnings growth supported by the president’s signature tax legislation, steady job growth and investments in artificial intelligence.

The U.S. economy has defied naysayers for several years, powering through the coronavirus pandemic, high inflation, aftershocks from wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and Trump’s tariffs. Over the past five years, the S&P 500 has gained 64 percent.

If investors today seem overly sanguine amid the world-shaking events occurring in the Gulf, it may be because they have seen so many epic moments.

“This is investors drawing on their experience. Everything they’ve gone through teaches them, quote unquote, not to overreact to that,” said Nathan Sheets, global chief economist for Citigroup.

In Washington, the president betrays little concern over the war’s economic toll. He said Wednesday, “Our economy is strong and improving by the day, and it will soon be roaring back like never before.”

But Americans’ war tab is mounting. Regular gasoline prices now top $4.09 per gallon, according to AAA. At $5.53 per gallon, diesel — which powers the freight and farm sectors — is approaching the all-time high of $5.82, reached after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Investors who fear that higher energy costs will push up inflation are demanding more compensation to hold bonds. That pushes up yields on the 10-year treasury security, which explains why 30-year mortgage rates, now averaging 6.46 percent, are up nearly half a percentage point since the war began.

All of this is a political headache for a president who returned to office decrying the 40-year high in inflation that occurred under his predecessor. Though Trump declared on Wednesday that the nation now has “no inflation,” government statistics disagree.

Prices rose at an annual 3.1 percent pace in January, the most recent data available for the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric, core personal consumption expenditures index, which excludes volatile food and energy components. That’s higher than the Fed’s 2 percent target for price stability, and Wall Street economists expect the Gulf conflict to push inflation higher.

Bank of America says the broader headline inflation figure will approach 4 percent in the next few months, up from 2.8 percent today.

The strait’s closure, cutting off crude oil shipments to Asia, means that petrochemical plants in places like India and China are running short of the feedstock they use to make all kinds of products, including cosmetics, auto parts, paints, household cleaners, beverage containers and aerospace components.

In early March, South Korea’s Yeochun NCC, a petrochemical producer, declared force majeure in early March, formally notifying customers that it could not fulfill its contracts because the war had interrupted its raw material shipments.

“We’re now getting very close to the point where you’re going to see the price of everything start going up,” said Eric Byer, president of the Alliance for Chemical Distribution, an industry group.

Getting a precise handle on the war’s economic impact is difficult, given uncertainty over its duration. But whenever the fighting ends, it will leave a lasting imprint on the global and U.S. economies.

Three of the world’s top 10 producers of urea and anhydrous ammonia fertilizer — Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran — are in the conflict zone. Most American farmers have already locked in their fertilizer orders for this year’s plantings, though those who have not will face soaring bills, according to Krista Swanson, chief economist of the National Corn Growers Association.

The price of urea fertilizer, for example, is up roughly 50 percent since the end of February. If the war lasts into May, farmers will still confront high prices in August when they order next year’s fertilizer, she said.

“If this continues on, this will be an issue for all corn growers for the 2027 crop,” Swanson said.

The closure of the strait has blocked roughly one-third of the global supply of another critical industrial input, helium, which is a by-product of natural gas production. The loss of Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas complex, heavily damaged by Iranian missile and drone strikes last month, will depress global supplies of the industrial gas for up to five years.

Helium is used to make semiconductors for consumer products and artificial intelligence data centers. So far, manufacturers have kept operations going by relying on stockpiled supplies. But the U.S. and Iran have both threatened to broaden their attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf, which could aggravate the market impact.

“To get back to the full supply scenario prior to the war, that’s going to take a very long time. And the worry is that conditions could deteriorate even further,” said one industry executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide a candid assessment.

Aviation was one of the first sectors to feel the war’s effects. In Singapore, a major global hub, jet fuel has more than doubled in price since the conflict began. Three South Korean airlines, including Korean Air, announced they were adopting an “emergency management” stance that involved shrinking routes and raising fares to preserve cash.

Major European airports in London and Frankfurt, Germany, are developing contingency plans to cope with potential shortages of jet fuel that could ground commercial jetliners.

Ryanair, the budget airline, will be forced to cancel up to 10 percent of its flights between May and July if the strait is not reopened, Michael O’Leary, the head of Ryanair, told ITV News.

“The sooner this war is over, the better,” O’Leary said.

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://as.com/actualidad/sociedad/rocio-propietaria-de-mas-de-70-habitaciones-de-alquiler-revela-cuanto-tarda-en-recuperar-la-inversion-gano-unos-410-por-piso-f202604-n/

Rocío, propietaria de más de 70 habitaciones de alquiler, revela cuánto tarda en recuperar la inversión: “Gano unos 410 € por piso”

Cuenta con cinco viviendas destinadas al alquiler tradicional y gestiona 75 habitaciones enfocadas al subarriendo. “Con muy poquita inversión empiezas a generar ingresos”.



La inversora inmobiliaria Rocío, en el programa “Cómo hacer rent to rent en España (con poco dinero)” del podcast Libertad Inmobiliaria, cuenta cómo ha creado su ‘imperio’. “El riesgo para mi es no hacer nada, pero nunca había hecho nada. Empecé con un piso, fue la inversión más difícil, compré en diciembre de 2019 en Zaragoza”, comienza relatando, dejando claro que se ha basado en tablas numéricas y Excell para saber cuál era la mejor decisión.

Años después, y con una cartera de inmuebles muy grande, los datos sí le salen. Según explica, obtiene un beneficio de 410 euros por vivienda (mínimo): entre las viviendas que maneja: cinco viviendas destinadas al alquiler tradicional y también gestiona 75 habitaciones enfocadas al subarriendo.

“Gano más que en mi trabajo”, señala, y es que las cuentas salen.

Para reacondicionar los pisos, afirma que destina una media de 3.000 euros para amueblar cada piso, para que estén equipados con todo lo necesario básico para vivir. “También hay que acondicionarlos para que, si el inquilino quiere, pueda hacerse una tortilla francesa el primer día”, detalla.

“La oportunidad está siempre ahí”, añade, destacando que el hecho que todo su entorno conozca lo que hace, ofrece mayor difusión a lo que busca, y todo el mundo se acuerde de ella a la hora de buscar habitación, pisos, etc... “Mi peor error es precipitarme a la hora de llenar una habitación”.

Qué es el modelo rent to rent

La asesora inmobiliaria detalla que el modelo rent to rent se basa en alquilar una vivienda a un propietario para, posteriormente, subarrendar sus habitaciones. “Al propietario puedes pagarle, por ejemplo, un poco más de lo que está pidiendo y decirle que te vas a encargar absolutamente de todo. Se va a olvidar totalmente de que tiene un piso“, destaca.

En cuanto a lo que más busca, “mi piso típico y ahora el que más tengo, está en barrio trabajador, con tres habitaciones más salón independiente, que se convierte en la cuarta habitación. Casi todos son sin ascensor, con una reforma básica, tipo lavado de cara", aclara.

De ese modelo de negocio, sus cuentas son claras: “En un piso típico, como mínimo, me tiene que salir un beneficio de unos 410 euros (invierte unos 3.000 euros por piso)“. Por tanto, en tan solo dos/tres meses recupera la inversión (dependiendo las habitaciones que tenga ese piso). “Está súper bien y, además, tiene mucho sentido, porque es el precio de una habitación. Creo que puede ser una vía de entrada para empezar a invertir que tiene mucho sentido, porque al final con muy poquita inversión empiezas a generar ingresos”, añade.

https://youtu.be/ZD91YJpb9jE

A los monstruos no mirar...

- Rent-to-rent.
- Empezó en Zaragoza.
- Excel con 2 eles.
- 3.000 € por acondicionar un piso.
- En el salón otra habitación.

No sé, Rick.

Huele a ayudita de papá y mamá.

A estas alturas los langostos (de cualquier edad) hace mucho que secuestraron el "artefacto". La cosa es que cuando venga el catacrock no consigan socializar pérdidas (otra vez). Sin fuego purificador, sin un shock como el de 1929, no habrá una vacuna duradera contra el mal del ladrillo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Gordon_(producer)

The year following the stock market crash of 1929, the news of which he famously relayed to his friend and frequent tip recipient Groucho Marx by quipping "Marx, the jig is up"

"Marx, la broma se ha terminado". Pensaba hasta hoy que Gordon se voló la tapa de los sesos justo después de decírselo a Grouxo, pero era una leyenda urbana. Lo que sí ocurrió es que Grouxo escribió poco después que era el mejor resumen del crack del 29 que había oído.


En tanto los langostos no estén en un Detroit donde les salga más a cuenta deshacerse de propiedades al peso para quitarse gastos de encima, no habrá purga del sistema. El problema, que en el foro lo sabemos bien, es que si hay ese pinchazo se lía parda. Desaparece de un plumazo un "hactibo" que en la práctica no tiene reemplazo. Pero tampoco se puede seguir adelante sin más. Y es justamente lo que se está haciendo: seguir porque nadie quiere ser el aguafiestas que anuncie que el emperador va desnudo. Como pasó en 2008, que los "yalodeciayoístas" sólo aparecieron cuando era fácil decirlo: a toro pasado.

[Noodles]

[Sí están usándose bombas nucleares:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRExzZ-uAL0]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=65maVmlNYuY

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/04/04/iran-war-global-economy/

Americans are feeling the Iran war’s economic pain with hints of worse ahead

Even if the conflict resolves in the next few weeks, some economic pain will linger for months.

[...]

Ryanair, the budget airline, will be forced to cancel up to 10 percent of its flights between May and July if the strait is not reopened, Michael O’Leary, the head of Ryanair, told ITV News.

“The sooner this war is over, the better,” O’Leary said.

Otro resumen impecable. Pero otra demostración más del brutal zugzwang. Para quien no conozca esta expresión alemana del ajedrez, estar en zugzwang significa que tienes una posición perdedora y que hagas lo que hagas pierdes, porque no queda movimiento legal que no empeore la posición.

Pero a ver cómo sale Zanahorio del paso. No tiene fuerza para imponerse a Irán. No tiene medios para reabrir Ormuz por la fuerza, ni siquiera GB ha seguido el juego esta vez. No tiene armamento para medirse con los drones iraníes sin un gasto que ya es insostenible. Una invasión terrestre como en Irak es imposible sin, de nuevo, un gasto inasumible. Y arriesgarse a tirar 'nukes' es arriesgarse a cerrar Ormuz para mucho tiempo. Con lo que eso supone. Y reconocer la derrota, que sería lo menos malo para minimizar pérdidas, tampoco es una buena salida para Trump y sus halcones.


Eso sí, a estas alturas EEUU es quizá el único que no se ha enterado que ha perdido. Como los cornudos, los últimos en enterarse.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[sudden and sharp]

Y... No se vayan todavía... la prima de riesgo a MEDIO PUNTO.






 

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-wealthy-investors-that-powered-private-credit-are-rushing-for-the-exits-7a3db81e

The Wealthy Investors That Powered Private Credit Are Rushing for the Exits

Investors asked to pull nearly $14 billion from group of private-credit funds in first quarter



The rush of investors trying to pull their money from private-credit funds intensified this week, hitting unprecedented levels and raising the specter of prolonged pressure on the firms that had become the new kings of Wall Street.

Blue Owl Capital, once the epitome of the explosion in private-credit lenders that raised funds from wealthy individuals, revealed Thursday that investors sought to pull $5.4 billion from a pair of its funds in the first quarter. The redemption requests amounted to 22% of its $36 billion private-credit fund and 41% of a technology-focused fund.

The requests come after weeks of elevated redemption figures trickling out from competitors including Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, BlackRock and Cliffwater. Each saw funds receive requests of more than 5% of shares outstanding, the threshold at which most funds limit redemptions.

In total, investors asked to pull nearly $14 billion in the first quarter from the type of private-credit funds known as business-development companies that make loans to mostly junk-rated companies, according to the investment bank Robert A. Stanger & Co. Investors were able to redeem roughly half that. The redemption requests are up from $5.7 billion in the prior quarter and $3.7 billion in all of 2024.

The pool of individual investors that acted as a catalyst for private-credit firms’ rapid growth is now a source of fragility. Adding to the industry’s problems are signs of deterioration on the loans that private-credit firms originated in recent years.

For now, executives of the major private-credit firms are saying the structures of their funds—which require shareholders to cash out slowly over time—are functioning as intended. They said institutional investors haven’t shown signs of withdrawing from the asset class. The industry raised $43 billion in fresh capital last year, though those inflows have been slowing in recent months, Stanger data shows.

“These companies, they’re like a shark, they have to keep moving,” said Christopher Whalen of the credit-markets research and advisory firm Whalen Global Advisors. “If the market says we’ve had enough, we’re not going to give you any more money, they have to shrink—particularly if you’re facing redemptions from investors.”

Analysts said elevated redemptions are expected to continue for several quarters. If fundraising stalls simultaneously, such a development could prompt a liquidity crisis and force fund managers to use their cash reserves, borrow money or sell assets to pay shareholders out and satisfy their own lenders.

Morgan Stanley analysts laid out a dour future for the industry in a report Thursday, saying they expect loan defaults to increase, fundraising to be sluggish and returns to disappoint.

“In a nutshell, we think risks in private credit are significant,” the analysts wrote.

The uncertainty dented the lenders’ shares, with those of Blue Owl down 43% and Ares Management 37% lower year-to-date. Those of Apollo and Blackstone have both dropped about 26%.


The stock of Blue Owl has fallen in the midst of concern over private-credit funds. Michael Nagle/Bloomberg News

Investor redemptions in private-credit funds significantly picked up during the fourth quarter of last year following the bankruptcies of the auto-parts company First Brands and the subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings. Neither was a big private-credit borrower, but investors started to wonder whether there could be looming problems for funds in which they had invested.

Meanwhile, the subset of private-credit funds known as BDCs were already reporting that they were accepting more deferred interest payments on outstanding loans. Within the BDCs that Fitch Ratings tracks, such deferrals accounted on average for 8% of their interest and dividend income in 2025, compared with 4% in 2019. That increase added to investor concern about the quality of the underwriting.

Then advances in artificial-intelligence models called into question the health of software companies whose businesses could be threatened by them. Many private-credit funds are major lenders to the software sector, leading investors to question whether the funds would take losses on their loans.

Fund performance has started to suffer too, including at the two Blue Owl funds hit with high redemption requests. Blue Owl Credit Income posted a 0.8% loss in February, its worst month since 2022. Blue Owl Technology Income posted a 2.3% loss, its worst month ever.



The lesson that many investors in private-credit funds are taking from the limited redemptions that fund managers have honored in recent weeks is to ask for more of their money back than they would have otherwise, knowing only a portion of their requests is likely to be met.

“There’s this huge game-theory incentive to be the first one to leave versus stick around, even if you think the fundamentals are fine,” said Brian Jacobs, a portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors.

Fund managers continue to tout the resources they have to manage through the change in investor sentiment.

“We continue to observe a meaningful disconnect between the public dialogue on private credit and the underlying trends in our portfolio,” Blue Owl executives wrote in a letter to fund investors Thursday. “While we believe market perception has driven elevated tender activity, underlying credit fundamentals across our portfolio have remained resilient.”

The biggest publicly traded private-equity firms have all reoriented their businesses around the rapid rise in private lending. At Apollo, one of the earliest to see the opportunity in lending that had become harder for banks to pursue, credit makes up 85% of the firm’s total fee-paying assets under management and 73% of its 2025 management fees. But less than 2% of Apollo’s private-credit assets are in funds that can be accessed by investors on a quarterly or more-frequent basis.

Some of the firms, like Cliffwater, do little investing beyond private credit.

The outflows from private-credit funds aren’t large enough to dent the profits of asset managers, at least not yet. For instance, the Blue Owl funds that saw outsize redemption requests this week account for 12.5% of the overall firm’s fee-paying assets under management and less than 2.5% of annualized outflows, according to Evercore ISI analyst Glenn Schorr.

[Derby]

https://www.thestreet.com/travel/airline-cancels-all-flights-for-disturbing-reason

Airline cancels all flights for disturbing reason

More flights are getting cancelled and the situation is likely to get worse.


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With the price of oil and ready-to-use jet fuel up by more than 85% and showing no signs of coming down as the war in Iran continues, airlines are among the first to feel the blow to their cost of operations.

JetBlue Airways was the first major U.S. carrier to raise the cost of checked bags on domestic flights at the start of April, and United Airlines followed shortly after. Both cited “rising operating costs” and the cost of jet fuel.

As the conflict set off by the U.S.-Israeli killing of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spreads into a wider conflict throughout the region, analysts are warning that many smaller airlines may end up cutting flights to offset fuel expenses.

“Huge rise in global cost of fuel”: Skybus on canceled Cornwall-London route

On April 3, British regional airline Skybus temporarily canceled all of its flights on a route between Cornwall Airport Newquay (NQY) in the southwestern tip of the country and London Gatwick (LGW).

Skybus managing director Jonathan Hinkles named “the huge rise in the global cost of fuel” as the reason for the cut flight, which had already been scheduled to end at the end of May due to low bookings.(...)