PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2026

[Derby]

https://www.energyintel.com/0000019d-4d48-d0e8-a3bd-7fcd5d780000

From Energy Shock to Global Recession


Gagarin Iurii/Shutterstock

This is not a conventional energy shock. Rising oil and LNG prices are reinforcing a strengthening US dollar, sharply amplifying the burden on import-dependent economies while leaving others largely insulated. The result is an uneven, fragmented crisis in which demand destruction could arrive faster and more forcefully than expected, spilling beyond energy into the broader global economy. Unlike past disruptions, there is little sign of coordinated leadership to manage the fallout. If these dynamics persist, the current crisis risks tipping from a supply shock into a deeper, dollar-driven economic downturn with global recessionary consequences.

This energy crisis differs from earlier ones in some critical ways. First, the magnitude of the lost oil and LNG supplies appears to be larger than in other crises and, due to the Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, longer lasting. Most informed observers believe the lost supply will lead to an extended period of higher oil and gas prices. Crude oil and LNG prices will be pushed higher, perhaps much higher, when measured in US dollars.

The rise in the dollar price of oil and LNG also creates an as yet unacknowledged threat to the world economy, because the US dollar just happens to be the world’s reserve currency. The dollar’s exchange rate will rise as LNG and crude oil prices rise, absent intervention by the US Treasury or the Federal Reserve. The strengthening dollar will impose greater strain on the economies of countries that must import oil and gas. It will also place increased strain on the non-energy sectors of the US economy.

The extraordinarily uneven geographic impact of the supply cuts resulting from the attacks on facilities in the Mideast Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz further distinguishes this disruption from previous episodes. Nations accounting for one-third of global oil use have seen no impact on their oil supply, leaving the countries consuming the remaining volumes to bear most of the shortfall burden, many of them in Asia. The impacts are similar for natural gas.

Together, these characteristics lead to a single conclusion: In this crisis, the price elasticity of consumption for global consumers is much higher than previously estimated. Quite simply, oil and LNG consumption will drop much more rapidly than most studies project. The decline will occur because the real prices of petroleum products and natural gas in many nations will increase by unheard-of magnitudes as the dollar’s value surges. A serious global recession could follow if these factors are not addressed quickly.

Not Your Grandfather’s Oil Disruption

Many commentators have looked back to the 1973 oil embargo or the 1978 collapse of Iran to find episodes of disruptions that most closely resemble current events. However, the comparisons miss one important detail: the US was an oil importer during those past episodes.

The supply reductions then were more or less evenly spread across the world when the US imported large volumes of oil. In addition, the dollar declined as higher oil prices widened the US trade deficit. These adjustments moderated the impact of oil price increases outside the US because oil, then as now, was priced in dollars.

This pattern was evident between the Arab embargo in 1973 and the beginning of the Iran-Iraq War in 1980. Over those eight years, the dollar lost almost 30% of its value against the Japanese yen and German mark, while dropping 40% against the Swiss franc. The strengthening of those currencies cut the impact of price increases by a third or more, moderating the economic effects of the crisis tied to the oil market disruptions.

The current situation is significantly different. The US’ emergence as a key oil and LNG exporter has had a greater impact this time because the dollar’s exchange rate now rises, rather than declines, with crude oil and LNG prices. The stronger dollar magnifies the effect of higher oil and natural gas prices on nations reliant on exports from the Mideast Gulf.

Japan’s situation exemplifies the contrast in exchange-rate dynamics between 50 years ago and today. During the 1970s, the yen increased by 60% as the US energy deficit rose. The exchange rate has declined by 50% over the past year since the US became a net oil and natural gas exporter and has lost another 4% in March. It could fall much further in the coming months and years.

The situation of other oil- and LNG-importing nations is similar. Rising oil and LNG prices are magnified by a strengthening dollar. The South Korean won also declined by 4% in March, while the euro lost 3%. Additional drops will likely follow.

Sluggish Responses

The consequences of the current disruption will be magnified by policymakers’ sluggish responses to the loss of supply.

European nations, acting primarily through the EU, have reacted slowly to the disruption caused by the war in Iran despite the extent of the resulting supply problem. Asian nations, lacking any coordinating organization, have responded independently.

Some countries are now jealously protecting their supplies. South Korea, for example, has limited oil exports to past volumes. China, a significant supplier of petroleum products to Asia, has banned exports and is considering price controls. Thailand, a major supplier of petroleum products to Vietnam, has imposed a “temporary” ban on exports.

The multinational oil companies also no longer manage global distribution. Instead, it is every nation, every trader, every company for itself. This creates a series of disparate situations in which some countries and some consumers can meet their needs without difficulty, albeit at higher prices, while others find their supplies limited, if available at all.

The situation in Europe is better than in Asia at the moment but will likely worsen in April after the last jet and diesel cargoes to exit the Strait of Hormuz before the war reach the region.

Global Leadership Vacuum

Whereas prior US presidents and/or secretaries of the state, treasury and energy departments have worked to coordinate the global response to disruptions, the current administration seems unconcerned, as Secretary of Energy Chris Wright made clear with this remark at the recent CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston: “Markets do what markets do. Prices went up to send signals to everyone that can produce more, please, produce more. The prices have not risen high enough yet to drive meaningful demand destruction.”

At the same conference, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum chimed in with the following: “President Donald Trump is super empathetic, as we all are, about the fact that there’s been a temporary increase in pricing.” Neither Wright nor Burgum spoke of the disruption’s impact on the rest of the world. Others, however, did: “The fuel supply shortages would spread to Europe in April if the conflict continues,” Shell CEO Wael Sawan said, adding that “countries cannot have national security without energy security.”

Sawan echoed words spoken in 1974 by Henry Kissinger before a joint Congressional committee, where Kissinger described the construction of international “cooperative institutions” after World War II and then added this admonishment: “We face another such moment today. The stakes are as high as they were 25 years ago. The challenge to our courage, our vision and our will is as profound.”

Kissinger also noted that “international collaboration, particularly among the industrial nations of North America, Western Europe and Japan, is an inescapable necessity,” warning that “dangerous political consequences” would follow, absent cooperation, along with a global recession. Evidently, those in the Trump administration have decided to test Kissinger’s hypothesis.

[senslev]

https://www.progress.org/articles/the-depression-of-2026

Tic,toc,tic,toc

[muyuu]

https://www.dw.com/en/german-men-need-military-permit-for-extended-stays-abroad/a-76662677

German men need military permit for extended stays abroad

Srinivas Mazumdaru
4 - 5 minutes

A new military service law took effect in Germany at the start of 2026 aimed at boosting the strength of the armed forces amid threats to European security in the wake of Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine. 

The legislation was contentious and many people even took to the streets to protest the potential reintroduction of mandatory military service — after conscription was suspended in 2011 — for men.

But another provision in the law has so far gone largely unnoticed.

It relates to a requirement for men between the ages of 18 and 46 to "obtain an approval from the relevant Bundeswehr Career Center if they wish to leave the Federal Republic of Germany for more than three months."

The Frankfurter Rundschau, which reported on the provision on Friday, said the rule would apply regardless of whether a German man "planned a semester of studying abroad, working in a foreign country or going on a backpacking trip around the world."
Germany seeks to recruit 80,000 more active soldiers
What's the German military's take on it?

A Bundeswehr spokesperson confirmed the report, telling the DPA news agency that in the event of a war breaking out, the military needed to know how many men were living long-term outside the country.

While the law requires men to request the permit, the spokesperson clarified, it also obliges the military career center to issue it, if "no specific military service is expected during the period in question.”

"Since military service under current law is based exclusively on voluntary participation, such permissions must generally be granted,” the official added.

Acknowledging the "profound" impact of the amended conscription law, the Defense Ministry said it is working on new rules for exceptions to the exit permit requirement.

It's unclear what consequences men who leave the country for longer than three months without the proper permit will face.

When asked, the ministry spokesperson pointed out that "the regulation was already in place during the Cold War and had no practical relevance; in particular, there are no penalties for violating it.”
Germany agrees on conscription framework
What to know about the new military service law

The new law that took effect on January 1, the so-called Military Service Modernization Act, aims to raise the number of active-duty soldiers from roughly 180,000 men and women at present to 260,000 by 2035.

The legislation laid down the path to reach that goal.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's governing coalition was divided over compulsory military service.

After heated debates, they finally agreed on a compromise, deciding that military service would remain voluntary for the time being.

At the same time, starting from this year, all men turning 18 will have to fill out a form answering questions about their education, health status and willingness to serve in the armed forces.

For women, answering the questions is voluntary, as they cannot be required to perform military service under the Constitution.

From mid-2027, all men turning 18 will also be required to appear for a fitness test to determine who could be drafted in the event of conflict — a highly controversial measure that has been slammed by critics as a first step towards full conscription.

Edited by: Sean Sinico

[Terzaghi]

Asustaviejismo:

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article69d0d5678ba297d4b122ec55/neues-wehrdienstgesetz-maenner-zwischen-17-und-45-brauchen-seit-januar-eine-genehmigung-um-deutschland-laenger-zu-verlassen.html

Tengan en cuenta que al contrario que en España, en Alemania el servicio militar obligatorio, nunca se abolió solo se suspendió. Por lo que las leyes de reclutamiento que se aplicaban durante la guerra fria, sencillamente pueden “reactivarse”.

El requisito de pedir permiso tampoco lo aplicaban entonces y/o no sancionaban si no lo hacías.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-men-need-military-permit-for-extended-stays-abroad/a-76662677

German men need military permit for extended stays abroad

Srinivas Mazumdaru
4 - 5 minutes

A new military service law took effect in Germany at the start of 2026 aimed at boosting the strength of the armed forces amid threats to European security in the wake of Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine. 

The legislation was contentious and many people even took to the streets to protest the potential reintroduction of mandatory military service — after conscription was suspended in 2011 — for men.

But another provision in the law has so far gone largely unnoticed.

It relates to a requirement for men between the ages of 18 and 46 to "obtain an approval from the relevant Bundeswehr Career Center if they wish to leave the Federal Republic of Germany for more than three months."

The Frankfurter Rundschau, which reported on the provision on Friday, said the rule would apply regardless of whether a German man "planned a semester of studying abroad, working in a foreign country or going on a backpacking trip around the world."
Germany seeks to recruit 80,000 more active soldiers
What's the German military's take on it?

A Bundeswehr spokesperson confirmed the report, telling the DPA news agency that in the event of a war breaking out, the military needed to know how many men were living long-term outside the country.

While the law requires men to request the permit, the spokesperson clarified, it also obliges the military career center to issue it, if "no specific military service is expected during the period in question.”

"Since military service under current law is based exclusively on voluntary participation, such permissions must generally be granted,” the official added.

Acknowledging the "profound" impact of the amended conscription law, the Defense Ministry said it is working on new rules for exceptions to the exit permit requirement.

It's unclear what consequences men who leave the country for longer than three months without the proper permit will face.

When asked, the ministry spokesperson pointed out that "the regulation was already in place during the Cold War and had no practical relevance; in particular, there are no penalties for violating it.”
Germany agrees on conscription framework
What to know about the new military service law

The new law that took effect on January 1, the so-called Military Service Modernization Act, aims to raise the number of active-duty soldiers from roughly 180,000 men and women at present to 260,000 by 2035.

The legislation laid down the path to reach that goal.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's governing coalition was divided over compulsory military service.

After heated debates, they finally agreed on a compromise, deciding that military service would remain voluntary for the time being.

At the same time, starting from this year, all men turning 18 will have to fill out a form answering questions about their education, health status and willingness to serve in the armed forces.

For women, answering the questions is voluntary, as they cannot be required to perform military service under the Constitution.

From mid-2027, all men turning 18 will also be required to appear for a fitness test to determine who could be drafted in the event of conflict — a highly controversial measure that has been slammed by critics as a first step towards full conscription.

Edited by: Sean Sinico