PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2026

[senslev]

Joao Wedson
@joao_wedson
·
18h
S&P 500 / M2 is repeating the dot-com fractal.

Not a coincidence. It's structure.
Dividing S&P 500 by M2 removes monetary noise and reveals the market in real liquidity terms.

The 2000 peak and the 2026 peak are nearly identical on this metric. Same extension. Same momentum. Same denial at the top.

The market didn't change. The narrative did.

In 1999 it was "the internet changes everything."
In 2026 it's "AI changes everything."

Both statements are true. The valuations are not.
The dot-com bubble didn't burst because the technology failed. It burst because expectations drifted too far from reality. Speculation assigned a weight that fundamentals couldn't support.

Same structure. Same behavior. Different story.
The chart projects a return to the 0.382 Fibonacci level as the first real support, a zone that aligned with the 2002~2003 lows in the previous structure.

Below that, 2009 marked the definitive bottom of the S&P 500 / M2 crash. Coincidentally, that's when Bitcoin was born.

Global liquidity will determine the speed. Not the direction.

The question is not whether this is a bubble. It's where in the cycle we are.

History doesn't repeat.
It rhymes.

https://x.com/joao_wedson/status/2045236450329755805?s=20

[patxarana]

Sé que va a sonar raro, pero lo único que tiene que hacer cualquier administración pública que quiera solucionar el problema es construir. Construir como si no hubiese un mañana.

Construir vivienda protegida a perpetuidad, vivienda que podría comprar ya mismo el 30%-40% de la población que la necesita. No hace falta que sea muchísima. Lo importante no es eso. Lo importante es que se vean las grúas y los carteles con el escudo de España o de la comunidad autónoma correspondiente por todas partes. Lo que importa es el mensaje: se acabó. Espera dos o tres años y tendrás tu casa. Apúntate a la lista y enseguida se empieza a construir.

No hay falta de suelo. En prácticamente todas partes hay suelo público por un tubo. No es un problema de financiación: si los precios son razonables, los propios compradores pueden hipotecarse. No es un problema de costes de construcción, como ya hemos hablado cientos de veces.

¿Que van a quedar miles de viviendas vacías? Por supuesto. Es el precio a pagar. De hecho, es una oportunidad para derribar viviendas obsoletas, con malos aislamientos, malas distribuciones y sin ascensor. Es la oportunidad para que el estado pueda adquirirlas a precio de saldo.

A largo plazo se puede crear un parque público de vivienda en alquiler, pero para eso sí hace falta mucho dinero. Pero, para venderlas, la financiación ya la pone el que las compra. Puede hacerse mucho más rápido.

Todo lo demás son parches.

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/Iran-says-it-will-control-of-Hormuz-until-end-of-war/news/details/66097901

Iran says it will control of Hormuz until end of war

The Iranian Supreme National Security Council claimed on Saturday that Iran will keep control of the Strait of Hormuz "until the end of the war is definitively concluded." It said the naval blockade of Iran by the United States is a breach of the ceasefire, which will "prevent the conditional and limited reopening" of the strait announced yesterday.

The council confirmed that it received new proposals from Washington via the Pakistani intermediaries in recent days and that they are under consideration. However, it stressed that Tehran will not "compromise or retreat" from its demands.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/bb3a8410-bc2b-4f62-86c1-0fefc181f164

Boom in UK ‘staycations’ as war puts holidaymakers off overseas travel

Rise in domestic tourism could provide relief for rural hospitality businesses struggling with higher costs


Searches for UK stays on Airbnb for the May bank holidays are up by 15 per cent © John Corry/Dreamstime

Britons are rushing to book holidays in the UK as fears over rising fuel prices and travel delays due to the war in the Middle East put people off long-haul trips.

Several of the UK’s leading holiday companies said they had seen more British holidaymakers visiting their resorts over Easter and making reservations for the May half-term and the summer, fuelling hopes for a boost to hospitality businesses.

Searches for UK stays on Airbnb for the May bank holidays are up by 15 per cent year on year. Popular destinations include Northumberland, Pembrokeshire, Herefordshire, Gwynedd and Derbyshire.

Whitby in North Yorkshire was the most popular choice at Sykes Holiday Cottages over Easter, followed by towns in the Lake District and coastal areas in Dorset, Devon and Wales.


Whitby in North Yorkshire is a popular choice © Sergii Figurnyi/Dreamstime

“Since the end of March and coming into spring, we’re seeing an increase in bookings [ . . .] and people who are booking are spending more and staying longer,” said Hannah Harrison, commercial director at the Coaching Inn Group, which owns more than 40 hotels across the UK.

Haven, the country’s largest holiday park operator, said Easter bookings at its 39 coastal sites were up 10 per cent compared with last year. Sykes Holiday Cottages, which has more than 25,000 self-catering cottages across the UK and Ireland, said visits over the Easter weekend were up 18 per cent on 2025.

Butlin’s chief executive Jon Hendry Pickup said the company’s three resorts were “at full capacity” over Easter, with a surge in last-minute bookings suggesting that guests “were holding off booking for longer, perhaps hoping for a swift resolution [to the Iran conflict], before ultimately deciding to stay in the UK”.

In the week to Friday, UK bookings on Awaze’s cottages.com were up 12 per cent compared with the same period in 2025, while its holiday park lettings brand Hoseasons recorded a 25 per cent boost.
“People don’t want to commit to the flight,” said chief executive Matthew Price.

He said concern about a resurgence in inflation was also influencing holidaymakers. “They’re getting more worried about their bills [ . . . ] but still feel they could do with a break.”

Figures from Barclays showed that UK consumer spending on travel dropped 3.3 per cent year-on-year in March, the first decline since 2021, as people delayed or scaled back their plans and opted for cheaper UK “staycations” over long-haul trips.


Butlin’s chief executive said the company’s three resorts were “at full capacity” over Easter © Greg Balfour Evans/Alamy

A boost in domestic travel could provide much-needed relief for rural hospitality businesses struggling with rising costs, as higher energy prices coincide with increases to the minimum wage and business rates.

“There are so many other pressures — but strong staycation demand would be a good compensation for us,” said Ian Dunstall, a director at Upham Inns, a collection of pubs with rooms in rural areas across the south of England.

He was optimistic about the strength of demand so far this year: “If it’s a nice location, it’s filling up.”

Hotels and restaurants were left out of a relief package designed to help pubs facing a big jump in business rates following November’s Budget. This left the average hospitality property facing an increase of £3,126 or 15 per cent on their bills this year, according to estimates from trade body UKHospitality.

Any boost in domestic travel “massively helps with all the costs that we’re taking on”, said the Coaching Inn Group’s managing director Adam Charity.

The Iran war has triggered a wave of international holiday cancellations and a slowdown in future bookings at destinations even outside the immediate conflict zone.

Figures from holiday booking website Trivago showed that searches from UK travellers for trips to the Middle East had dropped 48 per cent since the outbreak of the war in Iran, compared with 2025. Searches in Turkey and Cyprus also dropped more than a third.

Trivago chief Johannes Thomas said travellers were prioritising stability by staying closer to home or in western European destinations, particularly the Nordic countries.

He suggested, however, that “price-sensitive” consumers should look for discounts in places such as Cyprus and Tunisia. “Where people irrationally pivot away, that’s an opportunity for people to find great deals.”

Travel operators are hoping that the surge in domestic bookings will replicate the boom that followed the Covid-19 pandemic, when international travel was still restricted. The number of overnight holiday trips in Great Britain hit a record of 43mn in 2022, but has dropped every year since, according to VisitBritain.

Some fear, however, that rising inflation could cap the hoped-for boost for UK hospitality businesses. According to the RAC motoring organisation, petrol prices in the UK have climbed almost 20 per cent since the end of February to £1.58 per litre, their highest level since Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine caused energy prices to surge in 2022.

“Look at the petrol pumps,” said Charity. “My growing concern is about the actual available cash people have to spend on the things they love.”

[Benzino Napaloni]

Sé que va a sonar raro, pero lo único que tiene que hacer cualquier administración pública que quiera solucionar el problema es construir. Construir como si no hubiese un mañana.

Construir vivienda protegida a perpetuidad, vivienda que podría comprar ya mismo el 30%-40% de la población que la necesita. No hace falta que sea muchísima. Lo importante no es eso. Lo importante es que se vean las grúas y los carteles con el escudo de España o de la comunidad autónoma correspondiente por todas partes. Lo que importa es el mensaje: se acabó. Espera dos o tres años y tendrás tu casa. Apúntate a la lista y enseguida se empieza a construir.

No hay falta de suelo. En prácticamente todas partes hay suelo público por un tubo. No es un problema de financiación: si los precios son razonables, los propios compradores pueden hipotecarse. No es un problema de costes de construcción, como ya hemos hablado cientos de veces.

¿Que van a quedar miles de viviendas vacías? Por supuesto. Es el precio a pagar. De hecho, es una oportunidad para derribar viviendas obsoletas, con malos aislamientos, malas distribuciones y sin ascensor. Es la oportunidad para que el estado pueda adquirirlas a precio de saldo.

A largo plazo se puede crear un parque público de vivienda en alquiler, pero para eso sí hace falta mucho dinero. Pero, para venderlas, la financiación ya la pone el que las compra. Puede hacerse mucho más rápido.

Todo lo demás son parches.

El teletrabajo es el canario en la mina. Durante la pandemia hubo presiones terroríficas para volver a la oficina. Teniendo en cuenta que hablamos de trabajos que podían hacerse en remoto, el que no podía o se iba a la oficina o había ERTE con la actividad paralizada.

Incluso hoy en día, cuando pasan cosas como el apagón, lo de Ormuz, una ola de gripe, o cualquier asunto que recomiende aflojar un poco con el presentismo, y unos cuantos saltan a la yugular si se menciona lo de trabajar unos días desde casa.

Y ahí hablamos de una medida sencilla que no implica hacer, sólo dejar de hacer. Eliminar carga en la carretera, en el cercanías, en el bus...


Si dices "teletrabajo" y ya les salta el fusible, no digamos ya lo que pasa con mencionar construir.

@pollo, por curiosidad, ¿dónde andaba la promoción que se vende sin acabar? ¿Buena zona, mala, ni fu ni fa? Porque si resulta que ya se abandonan promociones sin acabar, no hay más preguntas señoría.

[Derby]

https://onemileatatime.com/news/spirit-airlines-trump-emergency-bailout-avoid-liquidation/

Spirit Airlines Asks Trump For Huge Emergency Bailout To Avoid Liquidation

It was recently reported that Spirit Airlines might be on the verge of liquidation, and that it could happen within days. The airline is in Chapter 11 bankruptcy (for the second time in two years), and while the company was hoping to emerge from bankruptcy by early summer, that strategy seemed hopeful at best. As you might expect, the current price of jet fuel has probably thrown a wrench in those plans, so there’s another update…

[Cadavre Exquis]

Creo que un aspecto importante que dificulta que llegue-lo-que-queremos-que-llegue es que, aunque sobre el papel hay casas/pisos para todos, ocurre que un porcentaje importante de éstas o bien están en zonas que han quedado abandonadas/despobladas, o bien son viviendas del desarrollismo, en bastantes casos rozando la infravivienda, y que en general no son deseadas por la gente para vivir, que hace un esfuerzo por ir a por una vivienda que considera de rango superior. Sumas eso al goteo de vivienda nueva y está claro que eso plantea un problema.

No discuto que se solucione a futuro y que entonces pueda llegar esa gran corrección pero modestamente y desde mi rinconcito creo que un análisis que persista en minusvalorar los factores sociológicos tendrá dificultades en plantear escenarios realistas a futuro. Soy consciente de que mi comentario es 100% "Hay-zonas-y-zonas" pero es que realmente cuando hablo con la gente de mi entorno, veo que en sus cerebros, indiscutiblemente, "Hay-zonas-y-zonas".

Y si entramos en política, se diría que se perciben estos hechos y se actúa sobre ellos pero no de la forma o en la dirección que aquí desearíamos.

https://x.com/Jongonzlz/status/2044876110438039941

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Sé que va a sonar raro, pero lo único que tiene que hacer cualquier administración pública que quiera solucionar el problema es construir. Construir como si no hubiese un mañana.

Construir vivienda protegida a perpetuidad, vivienda que podría comprar ya mismo el 30%-40% de la población que la necesita. No hace falta que sea muchísima. Lo importante no es eso. Lo importante es que se vean las grúas y los carteles con el escudo de España o de la comunidad autónoma correspondiente por todas partes. Lo que importa es el mensaje: se acabó. Espera dos o tres años y tendrás tu casa. Apúntate a la lista y enseguida se empieza a construir.

No hay falta de suelo. En prácticamente todas partes hay suelo público por un tubo. No es un problema de financiación: si los precios son razonables, los propios compradores pueden hipotecarse. No es un problema de costes de construcción, como ya hemos hablado cientos de veces.

¿Que van a quedar miles de viviendas vacías? Por supuesto. Es el precio a pagar. De hecho, es una oportunidad para derribar viviendas obsoletas, con malos aislamientos, malas distribuciones y sin ascensor. Es la oportunidad para que el estado pueda adquirirlas a precio de saldo.

A largo plazo se puede crear un parque público de vivienda en alquiler, pero para eso sí hace falta mucho dinero. Pero, para venderlas, la financiación ya la pone el que las compra. Puede hacerse mucho más rápido.

Todo lo demás son parches.

https://x.com/IgnacioEzquiaga/status/2043996846066962765

https://www.mivau.gob.es/urbanismo-y-suelo/sistema-de-informacion-urbana/sectores-residenciales-en-espana-2025

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/irans-military-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-citing-u-s-blockade

Iran's military closes Strait of Hormuz again, citing U.S. blockade

CAIRO (AP) — The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz quickly escalated again Saturday as Iran reversed its reopening of the crucial waterway and fired on ships attempting to pass, in retaliation after the United States pressed ahead with its blockade choking off Iranian ports.

Confusion over the strait, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes, threatened to deepen the energy crisis roiling the global economy and push the two countries toward renewed conflict. The ceasefire between them is due to run out by mid-next week, and Pakistani mediators were working to put together a new round of direct negotiations to keep the truce going.

Iran's joint military command said Saturday that "control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state ... under strict management and control of the armed forces." It warned that it would continue to block transit through the strait as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.

Revolutionary Guard gunboats on Saturday opened fire on a tanker transiting the strait and an unknown projectile hit a container vessel, damaging some of the containers, the British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said without identifying the vessels. TankerTrackers.com reported that two Indian-flagged vessels were forced to turn around after being fired on by Iran, including a supertanker carrying Iraqi oil.

The renewed escalation resulted from attempts by both sides to maintain leverage amid negotiations over an ultimate deal to end the war and address Iran's nuclear program.

For the United States, the blockade is a key tool to keep up pressure on Iran, short of resuming bombardment. By cutting off much of Iran's exports and imports, it could strangle an already crippled economy.

For Iran, closure of the strait — imposed after the U.S. and Israel launched their surprise war on the country on Feb. 28 — has proven to be perhaps its most powerful weapon in the confrontation, causing oil prices to spike, threatening the world economy and inflicting political pain on Trump.

Progress threatens to unravel

On Friday, Iran announced the reopening of the strait to commercial vessels after a 10-day truce was sealed between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. The reopening triggered a fall in oil prices. Iran's closure of the strait since has triggered an energy crisis that has roiled the global economy.

U.S. President Donald Trump, however, said that even with the reopening, the American blockade "will remain in full force" until Tehran reaches a deal with the U.S. Trump imposed the blockade, halting all shipping to and from Iranian ports as the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S was announced last week to keep pressure on Iran to make a deal in Pakistan-brokered talks to end almost seven weeks of war.

His comments triggered immediate outcry from Iranian officials, calling the blockade a violation that would prompt a re-closure of the strait.

"Americans are risking the international community, risking the global economy through these, I can say, miscalculations," referring to the blockade, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told the Associated Press on Saturday.

"Everybody must understand to what extent American side is risking the whole ceasefire package," he said, speaking after a diplomatic forum in Antalya, Turkey.

Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Commission, said that the strait was "returning to the status quo," which he had earlier described as ships requiring Iranian naval authorization and toll payment before transiting.

A data firm, Kpler, said movement through the strait remained confined to corridors requiring Iran's approval.

U.S. forces have sent 21 ships back to Iran since the blockade began on Monday, U.S. Central Command said on X.

Pakistan pushing for progress toward new deal

The renewed standoff over the strait came hours after Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told the forum in Antalya that his country's diplomats were working to "bridge" differences between the US. and Iran.

Pakistani officials were fanning out for talks with senior players. Its army chief met senior Iranian officials in Tehran while its prime minister held talks in Antalya with Turkey's president and Qatar's emir. Pakistan is expected to host a second round of negotiations between Iran and the U.S. early next week.

But Khatibzadeh said the Iranians were not ready for a new round of face-to-face talks with the U.S. because the Americans "have not abandoned their maximalist position."

He also said Iran will not hand over its stock of 970 pounds (440 kilograms) of enriched uranium to the United States, calling the idea "a non-starter." Khatibzadeh did not address other proposals for what to do with the material, saying only, "we are ready to address any concerns."

On Friday, Trump said the U.S. will go into Iran and "get all the nuclear dust," referring to the enriched uranium, which is believed to be buried under nuclear sites badly damaged by U.S. military strikes last year.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued defiant remarks on Saturday, saying Iran's navy stands "ready to inflict bitter defeats on its enemies."

In a message celebrating the anniversary of the establishment of Iran's army, he hailed Iran's drone strikes that targeted Israel and the U.S. interests across the region during the past seven weeks of war. Khamenei has bot been seen in public since he was elevated to supreme leader after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in Israel's opening barrage of the war on Feb. 28.

Questions linger about Lebanon truce

French President Emmanuel Macron said a French soldier was killed and three others injured on Saturday morning during an attack on U.N. peacekeepers in southern Lebanon. "Everything suggests that responsibility for this attack lies with Hezbollah," Macron wrote on social media.

There was no immediate comment from Hezbollah.

This week's declaration of a ceasefire in Lebanon was seen as a boost to efforts for an Iran agreement. Pakistani Foreign Minister Dar said fighting between Israel and Hezbollah had been a key sticking point in U.S.-Iran talks last weekend in Islamabad.

Still, it was unclear to what extent Hezbollah would abide by a truce it did not play a role in negotiating, especially when it leaves Israeli troops occupying a stretch of southern Lebanon.

In Beirut, displaced families began moving toward southern Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs despite warnings by officials not to return to their homes until it became clear whether the ceasefire would hold.

The war, which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, more than 2,290 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states. Thirteen U.S. service members have also been killed.

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/Trump-said-to-have-held-Situation-Room-meeting/news/details/66098021

Scoop: Trump convenes Iran situation room meeting amid renewed Hormuz crisis

President Trump convened a White House Situation Room meeting on Saturday morning to discuss the renewed crisis around the Strait of Hormuz and negotiations with Iran, according to two U.S. officials.(...)