PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2026

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/directivos/estilo-vida/casas/2026/04/16/69e117f0e5fdeadf308b45b2.html

https://www.expansion.com/catalunya/2026/04/17/69e20354e5fdeae7198b457b.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20260317/textview/page/58

Sevilla vibra con su escaparate más icónico

Saludos.

[CHOSEN]

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El Pump & Dump ¿?

[pollo]

Sé que va a sonar raro, pero lo único que tiene que hacer cualquier administración pública que quiera solucionar el problema es construir. Construir como si no hubiese un mañana.

Construir vivienda protegida a perpetuidad, vivienda que podría comprar ya mismo el 30%-40% de la población que la necesita. No hace falta que sea muchísima. Lo importante no es eso. Lo importante es que se vean las grúas y los carteles con el escudo de España o de la comunidad autónoma correspondiente por todas partes. Lo que importa es el mensaje: se acabó. Espera dos o tres años y tendrás tu casa. Apúntate a la lista y enseguida se empieza a construir.

No hay falta de suelo. En prácticamente todas partes hay suelo público por un tubo. No es un problema de financiación: si los precios son razonables, los propios compradores pueden hipotecarse. No es un problema de costes de construcción, como ya hemos hablado cientos de veces.

¿Que van a quedar miles de viviendas vacías? Por supuesto. Es el precio a pagar. De hecho, es una oportunidad para derribar viviendas obsoletas, con malos aislamientos, malas distribuciones y sin ascensor. Es la oportunidad para que el estado pueda adquirirlas a precio de saldo.

A largo plazo se puede crear un parque público de vivienda en alquiler, pero para eso sí hace falta mucho dinero. Pero, para venderlas, la financiación ya la pone el que las compra. Puede hacerse mucho más rápido.

Todo lo demás son parches.

El teletrabajo es el canario en la mina. Durante la pandemia hubo presiones terroríficas para volver a la oficina. Teniendo en cuenta que hablamos de trabajos que podían hacerse en remoto, el que no podía o se iba a la oficina o había ERTE con la actividad paralizada.

Incluso hoy en día, cuando pasan cosas como el apagón, lo de Ormuz, una ola de gripe, o cualquier asunto que recomiende aflojar un poco con el presentismo, y unos cuantos saltan a la yugular si se menciona lo de trabajar unos días desde casa.

Y ahí hablamos de una medida sencilla que no implica hacer, sólo dejar de hacer. Eliminar carga en la carretera, en el cercanías, en el bus...


Si dices "teletrabajo" y ya les salta el fusible, no digamos ya lo que pasa con mencionar construir.

@pollo, por curiosidad, ¿dónde andaba la promoción que se vende sin acabar? ¿Buena zona, mala, ni fu ni fa? Porque si resulta que ya se abandonan promociones sin acabar, no hay más preguntas señoría.

Era un pueblo cualquiera cerca de Calatayud. Llamativo cuanto menos. La zona está llena de promociones de chalets sin vender que algunos ayuntamientos reciclan en vivienda "asequible".

[asustadísimos]

[A CHOSEN: 'Pump & Dump'... sííí. Ahora estamos atravesando una etapa 'Trump & Dump'.]

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/bbc9c31e-cc43-41a6-8fb7-057d44b25a21?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Brussels pushes remote working to ease energy crisis

European Commission also recommends heat pumps and public transport subsidies


Businesses should be encouraged to ensure at least one day of compulsory remote working where possible, the Commission said in annexes to a draft communication © Olezzo/Dreamstime

The European Commission will encourage remote working and public transport subsidies to cut fossil fuel use, as countries grapple with the energy price shock from the war in the Middle East.

The Commission will present member states with a string of measures next week to reduce demand, improve energy efficiency and help move to clean power, according to a document seen by the FT. The steps are intended to offer “immediate relief” on high energy prices.

The recommendations are based on measures implemented during the previous energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They are part of efforts to cut reliance on fossil fuels and encourage green energy use.

Businesses should be encouraged to ensure at least one day of compulsory remote working where possible, the commission said in annexes to a draft communication. It also recommended subsidising public transport and lowering VAT on heat pumps, boilers and solar panels.

Brussels will also set “ambitious” but undisclosed targets for electrification, according to the document, which contains numerous gaps and has yet to be finalised.

In order to achieve electrification targets, Brussels will help member states develop “social leasing schemes for clean and efficient technologies”, including heat pumps, electric cars and small-scale batteries.

Several officials stressed that the measures were recommendations rather than instructions. “If we face energy shortages, it’s our responsibility to make sure citizens know what they can do to cut back usage,” said one EU official. “We’re not micromanaging people’s lives.”

The Commission issued similar advice in 2022, when it encouraged businesses and consumers to lower thermostats by one degree.

The recommendations to cut oil and gas consumption are part of a package to tackle higher energy costs, including electrifying the energy system and increased co-ordination on buying fossil fuels. Other measures, including tackling shortages of jet fuels, are still to be developed, according to the document.

The communication, which will be presented to heads of state next week, is largely nonbinding. But the Commission will bring forward two pieces of legislation to lower costs.

These include laws to tweak electricity market rules in order to drive down the cost of the transportation of electricity. This would include tracking the cost-effectiveness of different grid operators and recommendations on charges for heavy industry.

It will also seek to amend a directive to ensure electricity is taxed at levels below those of fossil fuels. A more ambitious proposal was dropped in 2025, but officials are optimistic the energy crisis will help kick-start discussions on the measure.

The document states that member states will have the flexibility to zero-rate the level of electricity taxes paid by energy-intensive industries.

The latest document also states that the Commission will help member states design price cap and income support schemes, and assess windfall taxes from member states, falling short of requests from some member states for an EU-wide windfall tax.

The two legislative proposals linked to the communication were first reported by Bloomberg.

[Overlord]

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La carta nigeriana
NFTs de "arte" 😂 Según algunos , el propio concepto de "arte" es un mito, un concepto oscuro que se presta a la estafa.
Vishing

Hace unas semanas intentaron estafarme estilo " vishing": Llamada desde un móvil haciendose pasar por Policía Nacional. Tenía bastantes datos míos. Sin entrar en detalles , la finalidad es que intentes abrir un archivo que quiere enviarte al correo electrónico ( cosa que no hice, pero le seguí el cuento hasta el final para ver en qué consistía). Fui a denunciarlo a la Policía Nacional ( la de verdad ) por si les interesaba y prácticamente me dijeron que si no me habían estafado no iban a hacer nada. En fin 

A principio de año también intentaron estafar a un buen amigo mio. Pasó su vecino a decirle que se mudaban y si quería quedarse con su piso, por se él, se lo debaja en " tan solo" 450.000€. No lo echo de casa porque su mujer se lo suplico con la mirada

El otro día se lo cruzo en el rellano y le dijo que habían quitado el piso de la venta, porque "con esto de la guerra" no se estaba vendiendo... Y para que no se "queme" el anuncio lo ha retirado una temporada. Le explicó que un anuncio se  " quema" si está mucho tiempo disponible... 

Esta es la sociedad donde nos ha tocado vivir, donde todos los días te cruzas con gente que quiere joderte de una forma u otra. Tengan cuidado ahí fuera

[lagarto]

Es posible que alguien ya lo haya publicado antes en el foro. Por una parte, aunque los ayuntamientos pongan miles de pegas, siempre habrá alguno que lo autorice y por otra,  el miedo del inversor a que sea una amenaza para su inversión, quién va a comprar una licencia de taxi con los Uber en la ciudades....se traduce en la muerte de las expectativas y esa frase maravillosa,  que el dinero es muy cobarde.


Me estoy imaginando esta conversación tan elegante y maravillosa, que tendré que poner en práctica. He comprabado que a los  les encanta escandalizarse con el precio de la vivienda...

-  La vivienda está imposible no para de subir y por encima van a legalizar a millones de sin papeles...

- Sí, pero ¿has visto las casas cápsulas chinas?. Por 15.000€ tienes una casa equipada, funcional y lista para vivir.

- Sí, pero pondrán aranceles y la administración no lo va a permitir.

- Bueno.... mira lo que está pasando con los coches chinos, los móviles, todas las empresas europeas que han cerrado. Al final cada día venden más.

-    Por eso hay que poner aranceles.

- Pero China es el mercado más importante para BMW o VW, le vendemos carne de cerdo y pueden impedir que millones de chinos vengan de turismo a España. Es como los Uber, al final las licencias de taxi no valen nada !pobre del que haya comprado una licencia de taxi! Ahora mismo no valen nada, nadie las quiere.

-  sí, pero la vivienda la necesita todo el muunnnnndoo.

- ¿pero has visto los catálogos de las casas chinas?, son módulos y puedes ampliar, con todas las certificaciones, no necesitas arquitectos, ni fontaneros, ni electricistas. Todo instalado...

- 

Las casas chinas ya llegaron y están sacudiendo el mercado inmobiliario. Viviendas prefabricadas, modulares y cápsula con precios ridículamente bajos que dejan en evidencia el sobreprecio de la construcción tradicional. Mientras millones no pueden acceder a una casa, China ofrece una solución industrial, rápida y barata que cambia las reglas del juego.

Este video explica cómo funcionan las casas chinas, cuánto cuestan realmente, por qué son tan baratas y qué impacto pueden tener en la crisis de vivienda. No es ideología: es economía, escala industrial y mercado.

https://youtu.be/mSCSqn_isPA?is=uOvwCdiessnH_G3W

https://www.arquitecturaydiseno.es/estilo-de-vida/casas-capsula-chinas-llegan-espana-hogar-futuro-esta-galicia-se-instalan-solo-30-dias_12511

[Elcasco]

https://www.larazon.es/economia/compraventas-viviendas-llevan-meses-baja-cambio-ciclo-enfriamiento_2026041969cb84ac6b2f8835925cf91e.html

Las compraventas de viviendas llevan meses a la baja. ¿Cambio de ciclo o enfriamiento?

Algunos analistas aseguran que los altos precios comienzan a frenar al acceso en algunas zonas, si bien otros consideran que el mercado se está normalizando tras años de crecimiento excepcional

La compraventa de viviendas ha arrancado el año con retrocesos. Según el INE, que se nutre de datos de los registradores de la propiedad, las operaciones cayeron un 5% en enero. Un retroceso que los propios registradores elevan al 7% y que los notarios llevan hasta el 11,4%. Los datos de esta última fuente, sin embargo, apuntan a que el sector lleva cayendo ya cuatro meses consecutivos, desde octubre. Sus informes ofrecen una fotografía más fidedigna del negocio inmobiliario en tiempo real porque dan fe de las operaciones cuando se firman y no de las cerradas dos o tres meses antes, como ocurre con las que se inscriben en los registros, que, además, no contabilizan todas las transacciones dado que aquellas que no necesitan de financiación hipotecaria no tiene obligación de pasar por el trámite registral.

Los notarios apuntaron en su informe anual de 2025 que las ventas no sólo habían caído en el último trimestre sino que se habían enfriado desde mediados de año. No apuntaban motivos. Pero algunos expertos empiezan a atisbar uno que podría ser un indicio de cambio de ciclo: los elevados precios. José García-Montalvo, catedrático de Economía de la Universidad Pompeu Fabra (UPF) y director de la Cátedra de Tecnocasa y la institución universitaria, apuntó en la última presentación del estudio de mercado de esta sociedad que "el comprador ya no puede con los precios, ha llegado a su límite" en parte porque, según añadía, la banca es cada vez más reacia a conceder préstamos a perfiles que no considera seguros.

Y, ahora mismo, este tipo de perfiles se está incrementando por el imparable incremento de los precios, que está abocado a mantenerse este año por la escasez de oferta y la todavía robusta demanda, además del previsible efecto negativo de la guerra de Irán en los costes de las materias primas que prevé el sector. Como explica Ricardo Gulias, consejero delegado de RN Tu Solución Hipotecaria, "cada vez más personas con perfiles financieros débiles intentan acceder al mercado de compra. Hablamos de personas con contratos temporales, sin ahorros suficientes o que intentan comprar por encima de sus posibilidades". En su opinión, la banca quiere dar hipotecas porque es un producto rentable, "pero no lo hará a cualquier precio: el crédito responsable sigue siendo la prioridad para evitar repetir los errores de 2008".

Robin Decaux, consejero delegado de la plataforma de inversión inmobiliaria Equito, añade que se está produciendo "una desaceleración concentrada en mercados que han vivido subidas de precio muy agresivas, como Madrid o Baleares. En zonas con mayor equilibrio entre precio y demanda real, como Valencia o Alicante, la actividad se mantiene sólida", según declara.

Sin apuntar a un cambio de ciclo, María Matos, jefa de Estudios y portavoz de Fotocasa, dice que el mercado "se aproxima al inicio de una fase de estabilización, no tanto por un posible deterioro de la financiación, como por el alto nivel alcanzado por los precios, que está tensionando al límite la capacidad de acceso de una parte creciente de la demanda.

"El mercado apunta a una progresiva ralentización, marcada por una demanda que pierde capacidad de compra y una oferta que continúa siendo insuficiente", advierte.

BBVA Research, en su último informe de perspectivas del sector inmobiliario, apunta también a los elevados precios en las principales zonas de demanda, junto a la falta de oferta, como uno de los factores que van a ralentizar las ventas este año. Sus cálculos apuntan a una caída del 1,6%. Un retroceso en el que hay que tener también en cuenta, según apunta Ferran Font, jefe de Estudios de Pisos.com, el hecho de que venimos de un 2025 con cifras récord no vistas desde el boom inmobiliario, por lo que "no sería anormal que las cifras se moderasen".

Para Gonzalo Bernardos, economista y asesor de Trioteca, "todo aquello que está en precio se vende. El problema aparece cuando el precio está por encima de lo que el mercado considera razonable".

Más que de cambio de ciclo, Bernardos también cree, como María Matos, que el mercado podría enfriarse en los próximos meses por diferentes factores derivados del contexto general actual. "El primero es el aumento de la incertidumbre geopolítica derivada de la posible escalada del conflicto entre Estados Unidos, Israel e Irán. El segundo es que los tipos de interés pueden volver a subir [por la inflación derivada del conflicto de Oriente Medio]. Y el tercero es que muchas empresas podrían ver reducidos sus beneficios, y el cuarto es que algunos trabajadores con empleos menos estables podrían enfrentarse a una mayor inseguridad laboral", desgrana el economista.

"Siempre que se produce un incremento de los tipos de interés y ese aumento va acompañado de una reducción del crédito hipotecario, o de un crecimiento menor que el del año anterior, el mercado inmobiliario tiende a ralentizarse. Sin embargo, eso no significa que vayamos a pasar de un escenario de boom inmobiliario a una recesión inmobiliaria", matiza Bernardos, que anticipa un escenario de subidas de precios más moderadas y una reducción significativa en el número de transacciones, pero que no ve un vuelco en el mercado incluso aunque la guerra de Irán se prolongue varios meses.

El encarecimiento del crédito no es algo que pueda venir provocado exclusivamente por los efectos de la guerra de Irán. Ya hace meses que entidades como Bankinter o BBVA advirtieron de que la "guerra hipotecaria" tocaba a su fin y que no estaban interesadas ya en hacer volumen a costa de la rentabilidad.

[pollo]

https://www.ft.com/content/bbc9c31e-cc43-41a6-8fb7-057d44b25a21?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Brussels pushes remote working to ease energy crisis

European Commission also recommends heat pumps and public transport subsidies


Businesses should be encouraged to ensure at least one day of compulsory remote working where possible, the Commission said in annexes to a draft communication © Olezzo/Dreamstime

The European Commission will encourage remote working and public transport subsidies to cut fossil fuel use, as countries grapple with the energy price shock from the war in the Middle East.

The Commission will present member states with a string of measures next week to reduce demand, improve energy efficiency and help move to clean power, according to a document seen by the FT. The steps are intended to offer “immediate relief” on high energy prices.

The recommendations are based on measures implemented during the previous energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They are part of efforts to cut reliance on fossil fuels and encourage green energy use.

Businesses should be encouraged to ensure at least one day of compulsory remote working where possible, the commission said in annexes to a draft communication. It also recommended subsidising public transport and lowering VAT on heat pumps, boilers and solar panels.

Brussels will also set “ambitious” but undisclosed targets for electrification, according to the document, which contains numerous gaps and has yet to be finalised.

In order to achieve electrification targets, Brussels will help member states develop “social leasing schemes for clean and efficient technologies”, including heat pumps, electric cars and small-scale batteries.

Several officials stressed that the measures were recommendations rather than instructions. “If we face energy shortages, it’s our responsibility to make sure citizens know what they can do to cut back usage,” said one EU official. “We’re not micromanaging people’s lives.”

The Commission issued similar advice in 2022, when it encouraged businesses and consumers to lower thermostats by one degree.

The recommendations to cut oil and gas consumption are part of a package to tackle higher energy costs, including electrifying the energy system and increased co-ordination on buying fossil fuels. Other measures, including tackling shortages of jet fuels, are still to be developed, according to the document.

The communication, which will be presented to heads of state next week, is largely nonbinding. But the Commission will bring forward two pieces of legislation to lower costs.

These include laws to tweak electricity market rules in order to drive down the cost of the transportation of electricity. This would include tracking the cost-effectiveness of different grid operators and recommendations on charges for heavy industry.

It will also seek to amend a directive to ensure electricity is taxed at levels below those of fossil fuels. A more ambitious proposal was dropped in 2025, but officials are optimistic the energy crisis will help kick-start discussions on the measure.

The document states that member states will have the flexibility to zero-rate the level of electricity taxes paid by energy-intensive industries.

The latest document also states that the Commission will help member states design price cap and income support schemes, and assess windfall taxes from member states, falling short of requests from some member states for an EU-wide windfall tax.

The two legislative proposals linked to the communication were first reported by Bloomberg.

La inmensa mayoría de europeos están viendo a ver cómo pagan el siguiente mes de alquiler, como para pensar en bombas de calor.

Obligar por ley a un día de teletrabajo rascará unos puntos porcentuales en el consumo. Obligar por ley al teletrabajo integral donde sea posible hará un corte enorme en el consumo.

Peeero, ya se sabe que no se quiere resolver ningún problema, sólo que los de siempre sigan ganando pasta minimizando daños.

[Benzino Napaloni]

La inmensa mayoría de europeos están viendo a ver cómo pagan el siguiente mes de alquiler, como para pensar en bombas de calor.

Obligar por ley a un día de teletrabajo rascará unos puntos porcentuales en el consumo. Obligar por ley al teletrabajo integral donde sea posible hará un corte enorme en el consumo.

Peeero, ya se sabe que no se quiere resolver ningún problema, sólo que los de siempre sigan ganando pasta minimizando daños.

https://youtu.be/hufCf1OiT3M?is=Vk189ix9mZ4GwsmU

Ibáñez, vuelva a la oficina.

[asustadísimos]

TODOS ESTAFADORCILLOS.—

LADRILLO: Necesidad básica instrumentalizada | Metafísica ofertademandista legitimadora | Valores de catálogo como anclaje | Laxismo angloléxico persuasivo | Normalización cultural de la compra como destino vital.

TOCOMOCHO: Avaricia inducida por ganancia fácil | Falsa autoridad o ingenuidad escenificada | Urgencia teatralizada de la oportunidad | Complicidad de testigos cómplices | Validación emocional que bloquea el juicio.

ESTAMPITA: Codicia supersticiosa activada | Hallazgo imposible presentado como real | Escasez ritualizada del objeto | Solidaridad/fe manipulada | Reparto ficticio de beneficios.

NAZARENO: Caridad y lástima instrumentalizadas | Identidad vulnerable o sacralizada fingida | Deuda moral insinuada | Urgencia compasiva coercitiva | Coacción piadosa que evita verificación.

TRILE: Ilusión de control sobre el azar | Destreza tramposa teatralizada | Testigos cómplices que legitiman | Distracción coreografiada | Promesa de ganancia segura simulada.

PASTELEO: Favoritismo encubierto y acuerdo opaco | Lenguaje conciliador engañoso | Reparto desigual disfrazado | Complicidad burocrática/operativa | Beneficio oculto para iniciados.

REVISOR: Autoridad intimidatoria simulada | Diagnóstico o sanción exagerados | Procedimiento ficticio verosímil | Urgencia de pago inmediato | Falta de trazabilidad comprobable.

SOPORTE TÉCNICO: Alarma tecnológica o de virus | Identidad experta/corporativa suplantada | Jerga técnica confusiva | Solicitud de acceso remoto | Solución falsa con coste urgente.

ALQUILER FANTASMA: Oferta irresistible inexistente | Identidad del arrendador fingida | Escasez de mercado exagerada | Prueba visual prestada/manipulada | Adelanto irrevocable previo.

PHISHING: Suplantación institucional verosímil | Urgencia securitaria/bancaria | Enlace manipulador de credenciales | Petición de datos sensibles | Uso posterior silencioso de la identidad.

SMISHING: SMS con marca oficial falsificada | Alarma inmediata fabricada | Enlace abreviado engañoso | Clic impulsivo inducido | Robo encubierto de credenciales.

ROMANCE SCAM: Intimidad o amor acelerado | Vínculo emocional fabricado | Narrativa de emergencia recurrente | Perfil/identidad inventados | Transferencia económica sentimentalizada.

FALSA ONG: Altruismo explotado retóricamente | Catástrofe amplificada | Imagen/testimonios fabricados | Donación urgente solicitada | Desvío total de fondos.

PINCHAZO: Incidente o avería fingida/provocada | Ayuda interesada ofrecida | Vulnerabilidad y miedo inducidos | Distracción situacional | Sustracción o cobro abusivo oportunista.

FACTURA FALSA: Apariencia administrativa legítima | Deuda verosímil fabricada | Autoridad contable simulada | Plazo perentorio intimidatorio | Pago rápido por evitación.

CURSO ONLINE: Promesa de empleabilidad desmesurada | Autoridad/mentor inventado | Certificación inflada o vacía | Testimonios ficticios | Pago anticipado o suscripción trampa.

CRIPTOMONEDAS: Tecnojerga incomprensible magnificada | Rentabilidad imposible prometida | Exclusividad temprana/FOMO | Comunidad artificial entusiasta | Opacidad estructural del proyecto.

FONDEO (PROP TRADING FIRM): Acceso profesional ilusorio | Reto gamificado selectivo | Reglas diseñadas para fallar | Tarifas/comisiones recurrentes ocultas | Éxito estadísticamente improbable.

PONZI: Rendimiento estable garantizado | Prueba social inflada | Pagos con capital entrante | Reinversión incentivada | Sostenibilidad ilusoria hasta colapso.

PUMP & DUMP: Hype coordinado y narrativa alcista | Información privilegiada fingida | FOMO inducido en comunidad | Inflado artificial del precio | Venta anticipada de iniciadores.

CARTA NIGERIANA: Fortuna/herencia improbable | Autoridad extranjera fingida | Urgencia y confidencialidad exigidas | Trámites/tasas inventados | Anticipos sin retorno.

NFT: Escasez digital artificial | Exclusividad estética inflada | Comunidad aspiracional/hype | Revalorización especulativa prometida | Desplome tras retirada de impulsores.

VISHING: Llamada de autoridad suplantada | Verificación urgente solicitada | Ingeniería social conversacional | Petición de datos sensibles | Cesión verbal de credenciales críticas.

Nota: He partido de la lista corregida y aumentada de 23 timos que tenemos por ahora. Le he pedido a tres IA que me den las 4 características fundamentales de los mismos, centrándose en su retórica engañosa. Y, finalmente, le he pedido a una de ellas que refunda y sintetice las tres opiniones en una sola lista en la que haya 5 características por cada timo, separadas por plecas. Tiempo mío empleado: 25 minutos.

[Derby]

https://savageminds.substack.com/p/they-needed-a-recession

They Needed a Recession

Private Credit Runs, Phantom AI Infrastructure, and the Convenient Timing of a War


Photo credit: Albert Stoynov

Last week a series of signals flickered across the financial system. Investors tried to pull hundreds of millions from a Carlyle private credit fund. The US government quietly revised economic growth down toward stall speed. Analysts began admitting that a large portion of the AI data-centre boom exists only on paper.

None of these events, on their own, would be remarkable. Taken together, however, they form a clear pattern. They confirm a simple truth: a system built on leverage eventually runs on crisis.

In other words, the system is now dependent on recessionary conditions.

The Carlyle Redemption Run—What Actually Happened

First, let's understand the Carlyle situation, because the financial press buried it. Last week Carlyle Group's $7 billion Tactical Private Credit Fund (CTAC) received redemption requests—investors seeking to pull out—totalling approximately 15.7% of its shares in the first quarter of 2026. That is more than three times the fund's standard quarterly repurchase limit of 5%. In plain English: nearly one-sixth of the fund's investors tried to flee at once, but Carlyle only let 5% out the door—about $240 million of the nearly $750 million requested.

Carlyle, it must be added, is not alone in this. Blue Owl Technology Income saw redemption requests at 41% of its shares. Similarly, Blue Owl Credit Income hit 22%. A huge chunk of Blue Owl's loans go to software companies, and now investors are waking up to the fact that AI could decimate those businesses. If the borrowers go under, the loans go bad, and the fund's value collapses. So investors are trying to flee before that happens. Apollo, Ares, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock all imposed similar withdrawal caps. Across the $2 trillion private credit sector, redemption demand reached a record high of 4.6% in Q4 2025—400 basis points above the long-term average of 1.6%.

The official line was that there was “no liquidity issue,” but that is precisely the point: the caps exist because the liquidity isn't there. Investors are trying to exit what was sold to them as a stable, high-yield alternative to bank deposits. They thought private credit was an ATM. Instead, they are discovering that when everyone pushes the button at once, the door only opens so wide. Carlyle's letter to shareholders admitted only part of the story, citing “recent market volatility” behind the surge in redemption activity.

The real fear, unstated but obvious, is exposure to software company loans—borrowers now threatened by AI disruption. When the underlying assets start to wobble, the redemption gates close. And when the gates close, the New York Fed's emergency facility starts to look inevitable.

The GDP Pump-and-Dump

Now let's talk about the GDP numbers, because this is where the manipulation becomes art.

In the third quarter of 2025, the US economy supposedly grew at a blistering 4.3—4.4% annualized rate. The headlines screamed that “Trump's America” was soaring, and the stock market cheered. The narrative was set: tariffs were working, growth was unstoppable.

But here is what the cheerleaders didn't tell you. That Q3 number was boosted by two volatile, low-quality components: a massive inventory drawdown (businesses running down stockpiles they had built earlier) and a one-off surge in exports. The “core” GDP measure that the Fed actually watches—final sales to private domestic purchasers—barely budged, from 2.9% to 3.0%. The economy was not “soaring.” More like it was being dressed up for a photo op.

Then came the revisions. Q4’s first estimate was 1.4%. A slowdown, but nothing dramatic. Then, on 13 March, the Bureau of Economic Analysis slashed that figure in half. Growth in the last quarter of 2025 was actually 0.7%. Annualized: 0.5%.

From 4.4% to 0.5% in six months. The inventory and export props that juiced Q3 disappeared in Q4, leaving the naked reality of an economy already slowing before the war even hit. And now, with oil prices soaring past last June's war-induced spikes (the “twelve-day war” between Israel and Iran), Q1 2026 negative GDP is a very strong possibility.

So the numbers—bolstered by temporary, low-quality components—were pumped by the media into a narrative of strength, then revised down to create a narrative of crisis. And the crisis narrative is the one that eventually justifies the Fed's emergency response.

The AI Bubble

But the GDP revision was only the appetizer. The main course was served when Bloomberg reported, citing Sightline Climate analysts, that 30—50% of the data centres scheduled to come online in 2026 will be delayed or cancelled.

Let that sink in. Nearly half of the data centre boom—the very heart of the AI capex circular deal, the foundation of record quarterly results and juiced market caps—exists only on paper. The proverbial mega bubble.

The same Sightline Climate report indicates that global announced capacity has reached 190 gigawatts across 777 projects, but of the 16 GW scheduled for 2026 delivery, only about 5 GW is actually under construction. Typical build times are 12—18 months, which leaves a serious mismatch between announced capacity and likely delivery. Meanwhile, power grids cannot supply the demand, electrical transformers are in short supply, and US manufacturing capacity—despite Trump's tariffs—still cannot produce the necessary components.

So it looks as if the system has just unburdened itself of a colossal phantom weight. The Nasdaq should have crashed. Instead, it rallied. On the surface, that makes no sense—until you understand what Goldman Sachs whispered.

CTA Squeeze

Why, then, the financial excitement in the face of all the bad news? Perhaps because Goldman Sachs leaked the punchline. According to the firm's model, CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors—hedge funds that trade based on algorithmic rules) are currently short (i.e., betting against) the S&P 500 by $30 billion. But here comes the kicker, verbatim from the Goldman note: “At current levels, CTAs will buy $34 billion of S&P 500 over the next week (closing out shorts and flipping long).” In other words, the market has bounced just enough to trip the robots” buy signals—so they have no choice but to reverse course and pile in. Bingo! A perfectly timed short squeeze.

The Fed Setup

Then Scott Bessent took the stage and set the table for the next rally. Just days earlier, on 30 March 2026, the Department of Labor (DOL) had proposed a new rule explicitly opening the $14 trillion 401(k) market to cryptocurrency and private asset investments—paving the way for pension billions to flow into the casino. Then, on 9 April, Bessent published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal demanding that politicians approve the CLARITY Act.

His argument was about regulatory clarity and competitiveness, but the effect was unmistakable: the CLARITY Act provides the legal classification for crypto assets, while the DOL rule provides the access. Together, they form a two-step machine designed to funnel retirement savings into the very instruments —crypto and private credit—that stand to benefit most from the coming reflation. The feast, after all, needs fresh capital.

Meanwhile, the Fed is rebuilding its balance sheet—and the scale of what's coming is staggering. According to Bank of America, a potential shift in the composition of the Fed's Treasury holdings could see the central bank purchase nearly $2 trillion in Treasury bills over the next two years—enough to absorb almost the entire net issuance of short-term debt from the Treasury Department during that period.

Let that sink in. The same institution that spent the last two years pretending to tighten—raising rates, shrinking its balance sheet, talking tough on inflation—is now preparing to vacuum up $2 trillion of government debt. Bank of America estimates that the US government will issue about $825 billion in new Treasury bills in fiscal year 2026, and another $1.067 trillion in fiscal year 2027. That's nearly $2 trillion in short-term IOUs hitting the market over two years. Bank of America's scenario implies that the Fed could end up absorbing nearly all net Treasury bill issuance.

Think about what that means. The government issues debt, the Fed buys that debt with money it creates out of thin air, and the government then spends that money. The economy gets flooded with liquidity, asset prices go up. The rich get richer and the whole machine keeps turning. They did it during Covid and they are about to do it again. The only thing that changed is the justification.

In this respect, the missing ingredient is a “notable incident” to justify operating on duration—i.e., buying longer-term bonds to cap yields. A redemption crisis at Carlyle, Blue Owl, Apollo, or Ares would provide exactly that cover—the perfect pretext for an emergency facility from the New York Fed.

The Media Misses the Point Entirely

Now, here is what every pundit screaming about “Trump's madness” and “miscalculations on Iran” refuses to see. Whether by design or by convenient incompetence, the war with Iran produced exactly the kind of shock the system needed.

You think the point was to win? No. The main aim was to create a recessionary scenario—spiking oil prices, supply chain chaos, geopolitical panic—so that exceptional measures become inevitable. So that rate cuts, liquidity injections, and backdoor bailouts become not just permissible but mandatory.

The logic of the botched war with Iran closely resembles the Covid emergency: a systemic shock, amplified by media hysteria, deployed to justify policies that would otherwise be unthinkable. Remember 2020? The overnight suspension of normal economic rules? The trillions created out of thin air? The Fed buying corporate bonds directly? Well, this is the sequel. The Iran conflict is the new pandemic emergency, while the recession is the new lockdown.

Whether Trump is in on the game or simply useful to it is beside the point. The system absorbs his chaos and repurposes it as cover.

Yet the media are still chasing Trump's tweets, analysing his “madness,” debating his Iranian blunder. Just this week, the airwaves were consumed by Trump's petty skirmish with the Pope—another perfectly timed exercise in mass distraction, another shiny object to keep the public's eyes off the real levers of power. Whether willingly or out of short-sightedness, the media miss the entire point. This is not one man's folly. Rather, this is the system operating in its most sinister and manipulative register—floating out an agent of chaos, hiding behind that chaos, sweeping the real story under the rug of Hormuz and Lebanon, while preparing a mass celebration of the very collapse they orchestrated.

So no, this is not simply a story about bad policy or bad luck. It's a story about a zombie system that functions by metabolizing crisis into legitimacy. Once you see that, the noise stops looking accidental.

And by the way, the Senate Banking Committee has just delayed the Warsh (the “inflation hawk”) hearing, which significantly increases the likelihood that Jerome Powell will remain in his leadership role beyond his official term expiration on 15 May 2026. So get ready. The feast is about to resume. And you, dear reader, are paying for it.

[Derby]

https://www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/how-did-the-us-run-out-of-missiles-in-iran?

How did the US run out of missiles in Iran?

We spend $800-billion-a-year on defense—but the US stockpiles barely lasted through a six-week-war.

I’ve long been intrigued by how the US spends around $900 billion — a number that accounts for perhaps a third of the entire world’s total defense spending and is equal to the annual defense budgets of China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, and Brazil combined — and yet often when we’re conducting military operations, we turn out to not have the “right” weapons or “enough” matériel like planes or ships. (That $900 billion, of course, is before Donald Trump’s new proposed increase to add $700 more billion to the defense budget, a number alone larger than any other nation spends on its military.)

The war in Iran has been one case study after another in how “limited” the “world’s greatest military” actually turns out to be when it comes to war-fighting. USA Today has another entry today in the type of scandalous and worrisome story that would for any Democratic president result instant calls for impeachment: US navy ships are, in a war zone, running out of food to serve their sailors*. The food problem is just one sign of a military being stretched further than it should: Many units have been deployed far longer than anticipated—and longer than they can sustain. The USS Gerald Ford, the world’s most advanced aircraft carrier, has been sidelined by a laundry fire.

As it turns out, much of the US fleet in the air and sea is older and smaller than should be.

When the US recently lost an E-3 Sentry AWACS radar plane in an Iranian missile strike on a base in Saudi Arabia, the targeted plane represented perhaps a quarter or a fifth of the US Air Force’s deployable fleet for a critical eyes-in-the-sky role defending against Iranian missiles and drones.

The US E-3 Sentry fleet of so-called Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) planes dates to the 1970s and today comprises just 16 or 17 airworthy aircraft — about half of which are operable at any given time and six of which are deployed to the Middle East to support Operation Epic Fury. (“We basically have [the E-3 AWACS] airplanes in hospice care,” the general in charge of Air Combat Command told reporters last year.) Meanwhile, the anticipated replacement, the E-7 Wedgetail, was recently canceled by the Trump administration.

Similarly, when Iran threatened to begin mining the Strait of Hormuz, it turned out that the US Navy had shipped back to the United States in January the four Avenger-class minesweepers originally deployed to the Persian Gulf in the 1990s. The four remaining US minesweepers are based in Japan, as the navy is transitioning its minesweeping responsibilities to Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) that are not purpose-built for the mission.

This week, my latest article  in the New Yorker explores how the US just used up a ton — in some cases, evidently even “most” — of the missiles and interceptors that it would most need and rely upon in deterring China from moving against Taiwan:

The crisis of American defense production has been slowly worsening since the start of the Russian invasion in Ukraine. “Official Washington added a new word to its vocabulary in the months after February, 2022, and that new word was ‘munitions,’ ” Karako told me. Jon Finer, who served as Biden’s principal deputy national-security adviser, said that the limited ability of the United States to meet the endless need for weapons in the war in Ukraine was the “the most jarring thing that I learned during the entire time I was in government.”

As Finer recalled to me, “Russia invades Ukraine; we collect every loose munition that exists anywhere in our own stockpiles and in all of our friends’ stockpiles—and even some countries that weren’t our friends who we could buy this stuff from—and we pumped them into Ukraine. The war is so munitions-heavy that they blow through those in a matter of months. So we go to our industry and are like, ‘All right—good news for you, big orders coming, how quickly can you ramp up?’ And the answer was like ‘5 to 7 years.’ Totally unacceptable.”

The answer, it turns out, is that basically the US defense industry gave up making munitions amid the Global War on Terror over the last two decades. “Over time, the industrial base has prioritized efficiency over resiliency,” William “Bill” LaPlante, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said in 2023. “We’ve allowed production lines to go cold, watched as parts became obsolete, and seen sub-tier suppliers consolidate or go out of business entirely,” adding, “No one anticipated the prolonged high-volume conflict we’re seeing in Ukraine.”

As I wrote this week:

Heavy-duty munitions had long been an afterthought in the “global war on terror,” which prioritized close fighting, special forces, and weapons platforms such as the Predator and Reaper drones. “We adjust our industrial base to the kinds of wars that we are fighting,” Finer told me. “I think we got out of the mind-set where we were ever going to fight a very munitions-heavy war again. That was a bit of a failure of imagination.” At the same time, the nation’s weapons manufacturers—part of what is known inside the Beltway as the defense-industrial base, or DIB—have grown cautious after years of fast-shifting congressional priorities. “If you’re a defense prime, you have basically had to use a Ouija board and a divining rod to try to guess what number of munitions that the government will want to buy two years from now,” Karako said. “These are publicly traded companies—they have to maximize the return for their stockholders—and they can’t, unfortunately, as good Americans, build stuff on spec and hope that the government will show up and buy it.”

Pentagon procurement of course has become notoriously slow, calcified, and prone to false starts; the KC-135 aerial refueling tankers that serve as the backbone of major US airborne operations like the war in Iran first entered service in 1957 and the Pentagon has been trying to replace them since the 1990s. Its replacement, the KC-46 Pegasus, was only approved for use in 2022 and Epic Fury is its first major military operation — and the Air Force still anticipates flying KC-135s for decades to come.

Here’s a fact that will blow your mind: The KC-135 started flying during Dwight Eisenhower’s administration — and sometime late next decade, e.g., well into the 2030s, the last American to fly a KC-135 will be born, which means the last parents of a KC-135 pilot are probably in middle school right now.

There are a lot of layers in the Pentagon that can cancel or delay a weapons systems or procurement order. When I was writing about the then-proposed creation of the Space Force in 2018, I learned that one of the little-understood needs for breaking away from the Air Force and creating a stand-alone Space Force was that it would something like halve the number of offices that had to approve a new satellite system.

The other major driver is just how expensive US weapons systems have gotten. The F-35 fighter program alone is now estimated to cost $2 trillion over the course of its lifecycle — that’s basically the entire GDP of New York or Texas for a single year going to fund a single fighter aircraft. That means we just can’t build as many as we might want to — or might have used to build.


One of the Air Force’s few remaining E-3 Sentrys, as seen from a refueling tanker, amid the war in Iran. (US Air Force photo)

For the article, I interviewed Deborah Lee James, who served secretary of the air force from 2013-2017, and who explained how despite the gargantuan size of the US defense budget, the money goes less far than some might imagine — about half of the budget is allocated to personnel and training costs — and procurement has to stretch to cover the needs of all the different branches. “There are hard judgments that have to be made,” she says. “The weapon systems that we are churning out today are magnificent, but they’re highly expensive. Quantities are difficult to come by…. Munitions, if you’re not in the middle of a hot war, don’t come to your attention as much as the need to buy those extra F-35s, or if you’re the Navy, to try to get under construction a couple of new destroyers or submarines.”

As I explain and trace in the piece, the implications for all of this on the stockpiles we’ve expended in attacking Iran in an entirely unnecessary war-of-choice might be profound. Online military forums regularly joke now about how CENTCOM, the US military’s Middle East command, is devouring the resources desperately wanted by INDOPACOM, its Indo-Pacific Command.

Most of the missiles and interceptors we’ve used to attack or defend against Tehran will not be able to replaced before the “window of opportunity” opens militarily and geopolitically for China to attempt to seize Taiwan later this decade. China is surely closely monitoring and watching that.

But on the other hand, as many of the sources I spoke with for the piece pointed out, China’s path ahead would not be easy. “The problem that China has to solve in a Taiwan contingency is a really, really hard problem operationally,” a senior Pentagon policy official told me. “Obviously, we don’t sleep on what Beijing is capable of — they’re building their military with a remarkable degree of focus and consistency — but that doesn't change the fact that the military problems they would need to solve is extremely difficult.”

Moreover, as Senator Mark Warner, the vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told me when I was interviewing him for the article, the biggest deterrent for China in the end might simply be how poorly the US war against Iran has been going. China is surely carefully watching how even a much-battered Iran stopped the US in its tracks strategically in the Strait of Hormuz. As Warner said, the biggest lesson of the war with Iran might be one of the simplest: “It’s a lot easier to be a defender than offense.”

GMG

*https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/16/iran-war-mail-packages-middle-east/89609308007/

[pianista]

La CARGA FISCAL podría añadirse a esa lista y el SEGURO DE HOGAR si te lo exige el casero en el contrato de alquiler 🤣🤣

Por ponernos en perspectiva, los nacidos en 2006 por poner la fecha en la que creo recordar que empecé a leer a ppcc o ir- pues son los “desgraciados” estafados que nacieron con el pecado de no tener un pisito y tener que buscar ahora en 2026 (20 años tienen ya las criaturas)

Si esto no es una estafa estructural (cuarteles del capitalismo incluidos) , que baje Dios y lo vea.

La codicia y avaricia infinita de propietarios y caseros solo puede darse en estas circunstancias de Estafa estructural legalizada en mi humilde opinión