PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2026

[Negrule]

La realidad no desaparece solo porque no encaje con nuestra percepción de ella, o estás en el bando afortunado o en él contrario.

https://www.msn.com/es-us/noticias/virales/el-imperio-inmobiliario-de-rafa-mora-tengo-9-pisos-y-recibo-6-000-euros-de-alquileres/ar-AA23JAWC

El imperio inmobiliario de Rafa Mora: “Tengo 9 pisos y recibo 6.000 euros de alquileres”



Rafa Mora apareció por primera vez en televisión en el año 2009 cuando todavía era anónimo y pretendía encontrar el amor en la pequeña pantalla. Lo hizo en Mujeres y hombres y viceversa, el mítico programa conducido por Emma García en Telecinco, donde se postuló como pretendiente de la tronista Soraya Segura. Lo que nadie imaginaba es que el valenciano se convertiría en uno de los participantes más polémicos del formato haciendo de su paso por Mediaset una auténtica mina de oro.

A Mujeres y hombres y viceversa le siguieron participaciones en Supervivientes, Sálvame y otros formatos de La Fábrica de la Tele para Telecinco como Sálvame Snow Week. Tras dejar la televisión cuando el programa de Jorge Javier Vázquez, Belén Esteban y compañía llegó a su fin, Rafa Mora buscó vida más allá de los focos y las cámaras siendo a día de hoy policía local en la localidad madrileña de Pozuelo de Alarcón.

Sin embargo, su fuente de ingresos va más allá de su actual puesto de trabajo ya que cuenta con un auténtico imperio inmobiliario con el que se embolsa importantes cantidades de dinero cada mes. Así lo cuenta él mismo en el pódcast de Pascual Ariño donde habla abiertamente sobre su economía. El de Valencia afirma que con su trabajo en televisión ha podido adquirir nueve pisos, pero que su objetivo es poder hacerse con un total de veinte.

Rafa Mora habla de su economía

“Tomé la decisión de invertir y fue una de las mejores decisiones porque me ha dado mucha estabilidad y mucha tranquilidad”, reconoce. Asimismo, explica en el pódcast que la gran mayoría de sus inmuebles están puestos en alquiler: “Compré el primero por 80.000 euros y lo tengo alquilado por 900 euros”. “Otro por 82.000 euros y lo tengo por 800 euros al mes. Luego el resto han sido pisitos que hemos comprado desde 36.000 euros que tengo alquilados por 620 euros”, añade.

Rafa Mora afirma que “me beneficia que haya mucha demanda y poca oferta” y que nunca ha tenido problemas de impagos por parte de sus inquilinos. “Vamos a seguir invirtiendo hasta donde podamos, esperamos que podamos seguir invirtiendo durante muchos años. Me gustaría tener 20 pisos, me va a tocar currar más. Estamos en los 6.000 euros al mes por alquileres, hay viviendas que no alquilo”, continúa diciendo.

En cuanto a su economía durante sus inicios en televisión, desvela que “he podido ganar en una entrevista de hora y media unos 26.000 euros”. “Hubo un momento en el que hacía bolos prácticamente a diario, he podido ganar 4 o 5 millones de euros”, concluye.

Esto no es nada sorprendente. Es lo que ya se comentó aquí muchas veces: cualquier subnormal puede ejecutar el algoritmo: compro, reformo, alquilo, reinvierto. De hecho él mismo lo cree, que eso es repetible hasta el infinito.

Y ese es precisamente el problema. Llegará un momento en el que en España nadie gane nada y no habrá nadie a quien cobrarle alquiler, porque cualquiera con algo de dinero lo "invierte" única y exclusivamente en cobrar el impuesto privado.

Sigue siendo flipante que se permita hacer negocio con esto sin ningún tipo de cortapisa legal, control, requisito o nada de nada. Hace años cuando la gente era razonable parece que no era necesario, pero ahora está más que claro que es insostenible. Si no se pone orden, acabará cayendo por su propio peso y entonces sí que habrá hostión.

[neutron_mortgages]

.
Lo de Elon con Marte es increíble. Cualquiera que investigue un poco sabe que es dificilísimo llegar a Marte con algo que no sea una sonda pequeña o un rover, ponte a llevar lo necesario para construir una ciudad. Volver es imposible. Un viaje tripulado de tantos meses muy dudoso en cuanto a la salud de los componentes de la expedición. Lo mismo llegan allí y ni pueden caminar, ponte a construir la ciudad. Y llegas allí a un entorno híper hostil con lo puesto y la posible ayuda que necesites a meses, sino años, dependiendo de la posición relativa de Marte y Tierra.

Pero va Musk y dice que va a crear allí una civilización de 1.000.000 de personas y muchísima gente se lo cree y, es más, pone pasta.

Puede que falten siglos, mínimo dos, para que eso sea posible, si es que existimos para entonces.

Pero, efectivamente, estamos en un punto en el que solo valen las patadas hacia adelante, cada vez más absurdas.

[bluebeetle2]

Hace varios años coincidí con el director del Gran Telescopio de Canarias en unas jornadas divulgativas, y en el turno de preguntas con el público, debatiendo sobre la colonización de Marte, ante  previsible apocalipsis climático y extinción de recursos naturales y el futuro de la humanidad, alguien le preguntó que haría él si tuviera dinero suficiente y capacidad de gestionar tal empresa de colonización para garantizar la existencia de la especie humana.

Su respuesta fue que si el tuviera todo el dinero del mundo se preocuparía de mejorar las condiciones de vida de este planeta y de las personas que viven en él, en lugar de intentar hacer habitable Marte.

En mi opinión hacen falta más personas como Romano al mando, con sentido común, pies en la tierra y que se marcan objetivos realistas aunque se pasen la vida mirando a las estrellas.

Ahora traslademos esto a la vivienda. No es necesario colonizar el espacio exterior de las ciudades, se trata de mejorar las condiciones de éstas, empezando por una caída de precios drástica.

[Mistermaguf]

A juzgar por los últimos comentarios, me voy olvidando del food truck de perritos calientes que me hacía tanta ilusión en Vallis Marineris. Sois una panda de amargados envidiosos.

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

Hace varios años coincidí con el director del Gran Telescopio de Canarias en unas jornadas divulgativas, y en el turno de preguntas con el público, debatiendo sobre la colonización de Marte, ante  previsible apocalipsis climático y extinción de recursos naturales y el futuro de la humanidad, alguien le preguntó que haría él si tuviera dinero suficiente y capacidad de gestionar tal empresa de colonización para garantizar la existencia de la especie humana.

Su respuesta fue que si el tuviera todo el dinero del mundo se preocuparía de mejorar las condiciones de vida de este planeta y de las personas que viven en él, en lugar de intentar hacer habitable Marte.

En mi opinión hacen falta más personas como Romano al mando, con sentido común, pies en la tierra y que se marcan objetivos realistas aunque se pasen la vida mirando a las estrellas.

Ahora traslademos esto a la vivienda. No es necesario colonizar el espacio exterior de las ciudades, se trata de mejorar las condiciones de éstas, empezando por una caída de precios drástica.

... y las hay; pero están vetadas en los medios de comunicación, por los partidos políticos y por las Clases Medias que solo quieren oír noticias-memes triunfalistas para justificar su extracción de rentas y el valor de sus hactivitos.

[senslev]

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia/banca/el-bce-detecta-que-la-vivienda-en-espana-esta-sobrevalorada-mas-de-un-20-como-en-la-crisis-de-2008.html

Más de un 20% y menos de un 99%.

[Zugzwang]

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia/banca/el-bce-detecta-que-la-vivienda-en-espana-esta-sobrevalorada-mas-de-un-20-como-en-la-crisis-de-2008.html

Más de un 20% y menos de un 99%.

Creo que dan un mensaje diferente. Los precios están un veinte por ciento por encima de lo que pueden pagar ahora mismo los pringados, antes del gran sacrificio que parece que está más cerca que nunca, pero nunca llega. Aquí en España hay una distorsión por el excesivo subempleo, la generalización de los bajos salarios (bordeando hasta el salario mínimo en prácticamente un sesenta por ciento de los asalariados) y la lejana edad de emancipación, así como las pocas parejas que se están formalizando entre los menores de 40 años. Eso ha distorsionado en esta estafa de desaguadores los precios aún más, porque hay menos capacidad de entrar a la propiedad en perfiles perfectamente solventes pero que por determinadas circunstancias socioculturales nacionales, y a estos precios pensados para pagarse entre dos, se ha instaurado el No Mercado, que complica la estafa(algo completamente diseñado para dar el pase, y de ahí no salgo, todas las políticas van dirigidas a inflar los alquileres y que no haya alternativa que no sea la compra), y provoca el presente sadismo en la formación de precios.

Lo ha dicho el BCE ahora y también lo dijo el FMI en 2008 antes del momento Lehman, en España los precios impiden dar salida a los stocks en venta, y coincidían burbuja en 2008 y la estafa actual en el 20 por ciento de sobrevaloración. La bajada tiene que ir mucho más lejos, un mileurista precario, que puede estar varios meses sin trabajar por la estacionalidad y le queda un subsidio de 600 euros al mes, debe tener acceso a un techo por bastante menos de esos 600 euros. Y una recesión como la de los noventa (no es necesario que sea como la de 2008), y que destruya un millón de puestos de trabajo, deja el artefacto sin ser intervenido a los pies de un gran estallido social. Los precios de 2022 ya eran completamente inasumibles y una gran estafa, lo de ahora es ya estafa cargada de usura.

https://www.libertaddigital.com/economia/el-fmi-augura-que-el-precio-de-la-vivienda-en-espana-bajara-hasta-un-20-por-ciento-1276327211/

El FMI augura que el precio de la vivienda en España bajará hasta un 20 por ciento

04/4/2008

[...]

"Los precios están sobrevalorados entre un 15 y un 20 por ciento, por lo que deberán caer en entre un 15 y un 20 por ciento, en términos reales", es decir, descontada la inflación, declaró Cardarelli a Efe.

[...]

Le he preguntado a la IA sobre el informe de Cardarelli sobre la burbuja inmobiliaria en España en 2008.

Roberto Cardarelli es un destacado economista del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) que, durante el estallido de la crisis, advirtió tempranamente sobre la sobrevaloración del mercado inmobiliario español.

En su informe del FMI "The Changing Housing Cycle and the Implications for Monetary Policy" (abril de 2008), Cardarelli analizó los ciclos de la vivienda y expuso datos determinantes:

* Sobrevaloración: Advirtió que los precios de la vivienda en España estaban inflados entre un 15% y un 20%.

* Corrección inminente: Concluyó que para que el mercado fuera sostenible y recuperara su valor real, los precios debían ajustarse a la baja en ese mismo margen.

* Advertencia global: En sus estudios, destacó cómo la expansión del crédito barato y el exceso de construcción habían gestado una situación insostenible.

Viendo la concatenación de noticias, me da a mí que hay muchos "Rafa Mora" pululando en inversiones trucha, con cuatro ahorrillos hipotecados para vivir de las rentas, y esos reportajes se van sucediendo para que no exista ninguna empatía hacia ellos cuando se arruinen, porque como bien apunta sudden, y yo pienso igual, esta vez no habrá rescate. Esos triunfadores están a dos o tres meses de impagos de la más absoluta ruina, y serán de los que vayan a programas del corazón pidiendo "dación en pago", solidaridad y ayuda. El daño que se está haciendo es asqueroso e inmoral, a todos los niveles. Van a dejar tierra quemada en la confianza de la totalidad de la población, y levantarse de esto va a ser muy difícil.

[Derby]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stock-market-treasury-yield-surge-sparks-mortgage-hedging-frenzy-deepens-bond-selloff/articleshow/131256451.cms

US Stock Market: Treasury yield surge sparks mortgage hedging frenzy, deepens bond selloff

Surging U.S. Treasury yields have triggered a wave of mortgage-related hedging activity, intensifying volatility in the bond market and contributing to the sharpest jump in interest rates in over a year. According to Reuters, investors holding mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have been forced to sell government debt and Treasury futures to manage growing risks tied to rising rates and slowing mortgage refinancing activity.

The selloff in Treasuries accelerated after stronger-than-expected April inflation data led markets to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Investors who had earlier anticipated rate cuts are now increasingly pricing in the possibility of another Fed hike this year. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed 23 basis points in a week and has risen more than 60 basis points since the start of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, reflecting heightened inflation and geopolitical concerns.



The rapid rise in yields has increased “convexity hedging” activity among MBS investors such as insurance companies, mortgage REITs, and asset managers. Convexity hedging refers to efforts by investors to offset the changing duration risk of mortgage-backed securities as interest rates rise.

Mortgage-backed securities are highly sensitive to refinancing trends. When rates increase, homeowners are less likely to refinance their mortgages, slowing prepayments on home loans. This extends the effective maturity, or duration, of mortgage-backed securities, making them behave more like longer-dated bonds that are more vulnerable to additional rate increases.

Unlike traditional bonds, which generally display positive convexity, mortgage-backed securities exhibit negative convexity. MBS prices tend to decline more sharply when yields rise because the underlying mortgages remain outstanding for longer periods. This forces investors to rebalance portfolios by selling Treasury futures or other government debt instruments to reduce duration exposure.

The impact of these hedging flows became particularly visible earlier this week. Market participants and CME Group data show unusually large block trades in Treasury futures, especially in five- and 10-year maturities, where convexity effects are most concentrated. One transaction in five-year note futures reportedly involved 33,000 contracts, significantly above normal trading sizes.

Analysts believe the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program is also amplifying the effect. Under QT, the Fed allows up to $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature monthly while reinvesting proceeds into Treasury bills instead of purchasing new MBS. This effectively shifts mortgage-related convexity risk from the Fed’s balance sheet back into private markets, increasing pressure on investors to hedge duration exposure themselves.

According to market experts, today’s convexity hedging flows are becoming a larger driver of Treasury market volatility than in previous years. The growing share of higher-coupon mortgages — now exceeding $2 trillion in the MBS market — has made mortgage portfolios more sensitive to interest-rate swings. As older low-rate loans mature and are replaced with higher-rate mortgages, duration risk becomes less predictable, resulting in heavier and more destabilizing hedging activity when yields rise rapidly.

The spike in Treasury yields has broader implications for financial markets. Rising yields generally tighten financial conditions, increase borrowing costs, and pressure equity valuations, particularly for growth-oriented sectors such as technology and real estate. Higher mortgage rates can also slow housing demand, impacting homebuilders, banks, and consumer spending trends.

For investors, the recent move underscores how technical market dynamics — not just economic fundamentals — can amplify volatility in fixed-income markets. Analysts expect convexity-related flows to remain an important factor as long as inflation concerns and elevated interest rates persist.

[Derby]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/zombie-home-foreclosure-numbers-increase-in-38-us-states-6036275

Zombie Home Foreclosure Numbers Increase in 38 US States

Georgia had the largest quarterly increase in such properties, followed by North Carolina and Indiana.


Homes in Huntington Beach, Calif., on July 12, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The number of residential zombie foreclosures in the second quarter of 2026 marginally increased from the previous quarter, with such foreclosures rising in the District of Columbia and 38 out of the 50 U.S. states, real estate analytics company ATTOM said in a May 21 statement.

“Out of the country’s 104.9 million residential properties, 245,376 were in the foreclosure process in the second quarter. Of those, 8,312 properties, or 3.4 percent, were ‘zombies,’ meaning the owners had abandoned the properties before the end of their foreclosure proceedings,” ATTOM said. “The second quarter zombie rate was slightly higher than the 3.3 percent rate posted in the first quarter.”

Among states with at least 100 zombie residences, Georgia recorded the largest quarter-over-quarter increase, with the number of such properties rising by 98 percent. Zombie foreclosures rose by 67.2 percent in North Carolina, 42 percent in Indiana, 35.5 percent in Iowa, and 15.4 percent in South Carolina.

In states with at least 50 zombie homes, only two saw a dip in such properties in the second quarter—Washington and New York, which declined by 13.1 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.

A zombie foreclosure typically happens when a homeowner receives a pending foreclosure notice and decides to leave the home before the legally required exit date, leaving the home vacant.

As long as the foreclosure is not completed, the owner continues to be the title holder of the property. The owner can usually pay a lump sum to the lender and pull the property out of foreclosure.

However, if the lump sum is not paid, the property will end up with the lender. Following this stage, the homeowner has to leave the place when the lender requires them to.

ATTOM’s analysis of 138 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 100,000 residential properties and at least 100 properties in the foreclosure process showed that Cedar Rapids, Iowa, had the highest share of properties in zombie status at 13.2 percent.

This was followed by Wichita, Kansas, at 12.9 percent; Youngstown, Ohio, with 11.4 percent; and Cleveland and Akron, both in Ohio, at more than 10 percent each.

ATTOM’s data also showed that almost 1.4 million homes in the United States were vacant in the second quarter, which represents 1.3 percent of America’s residential properties.

“The increase in zombie foreclosures across most states may reflect a foreclosure market that is slowly returning to more normalized levels,” Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM, said.

“At the same time, overall vacancy rates remain relatively steady nationwide, while zombie foreclosures still represent only a small share of homes in the foreclosure process.”

According to a Jan. 18 post by Rocket Mortgage, the owner of a zombie property under foreclosure will still be responsible for bills.

For instance, the owners must pay property taxes, failing which they could face a tax lien. Homeowners’ association fees must be paid; failing which, the association could file a lawsuit. Similarly, bills for trash removal, maintenance, and other services should be paid as well.

The owner’s credit score could get negatively hit, potentially impacting their ability to secure loans in the future.

“The best way to steer clear of a zombie foreclosure is to stay current on mortgage payments. During the mandated waiting period after you receive a foreclosure notice, you can put a halt to foreclosure by paying a large lump sum,” the post said.

“Also, a deed-in-lieu agreement can sometimes prevent foreclosure even after the process has started. This is when you turn ownership of your home over to the lender to avoid foreclosure.”

Meanwhile, mortgage delinquency is rising in several states, according to a May 21 statement by financial services company WalletHub.

The findings are based on mortgage data from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026. During this period, the average number of delinquent mortgages rose by 12.32 percent in Vermont. This was followed by Delaware, with a 6.92 percent jump, and Louisiana, with a 4.4 percent rise.

“If you are delinquent on mortgage debt, you typically have until the debt is 30 days past-due (meaning you have missed two payments) in order to get current. After that, the lender will report the delinquency to the credit bureaus, which will damage your credit score,” Chip Lupo, analyst at WalletHub, said.

“Therefore, it’s important to try to get current on your debt as quickly as possible. If you are experiencing financial difficulty that prevents you from paying, ask your lender if they will allow temporary forbearance until you get back on your feet, which may prevent you from being reported as delinquent.”

[Derby]

https://www.economiadigital.es/empresas/telefonica-gran-venta.html

Sombras en la venta del edificio de Telefónica en Gran Vía: una oferta de última hora y 50 millones extra

Telefónica recibe una oferta de Tomás Olivo de más de 200 millones por su rascacielos en pleno centro de Madrid tras la huida de los fondos


Montaje realizado por Economía Digital.

La venta del emblemático edificio de Telefónica en Gran Vía está suscitando dudas sobre su viabilidad en el sector inmobiliario. La oferta de última hora del empresario murciano Tomás Olivo por unos 200 millones de euros, significativamente por debajo de lo esperado, ha dado un vuelco a la operación. Además, la inversión necesaria para modernizar el inmueble alcanzaría los 50 millones de euros, según fuentes del sector.

La teleco que preside Marc Murtra está inmersa en su plan estratégico Transform & Grow para, entre otras cosas, centrar el foco de la compañía en sus cuatro principales mercados y desinvertir los activos que considera un lastre para generar caja y reducir deuda.

Es aquí donde se encuentran el edificio de Gran Vía junto a su sede ubicada en el distrito madrileño de Las Tablas. Tras recibir diferentes ofertas de inversores privados en los últimos meses, el jueves transcendió una potencial venta a Tomás Olivo, propietario de catorce parques y centros comerciales, adelantada por El Nuevo Digital de Murcia.

La oferta del magnate inmobiliario es de unos 100 millones inferior a lo que esperaba sacar Telefónica. Fuentes conocedoras de la operación explican a ECONOMÍA DIGITAL que la oferta elegida se encuentra en una fase inicial para negociar el precio y las partes aún no han cerrado el acuerdo.



El interés de Tomás Olivo se suma al de una amplia lista que ha estado formada por nombres como los de la familia Ardid, bisnietos de Franco, el fondo estadounidense Bain Capital, la aseguradora italiana Generali, el Grupo Romero de Perú, Drago o Prime Investors Capital.

Ninguna de las ofertas de los fondos e inversores privados mencionados ha llegado a buen puerto dadas las diferencias económicas entre lo que pide Telefónica y la rentabilidad que actualmente creen que se puede sacar al edificio con el uso actual.

Fuentes conocedoras apuntan que la operación no se limita al precio de adquisición del inmueble, inicialmente cifrado en torno a los 250 millones de euros.

Al desembolso inicial habría que sumar una inversión adicional de hasta 50 millones destinada a la remodelación integral del edificio, condición indispensable para adecuarlo a los estándares que demanda el mercado de oficinas prime y que exigen los grandes inquilinos antes de firmar cualquier contrato de arrendamiento.

Con la normativa actual y la protección especial que rodea a un inmueble de elevada consideración cultural, la reconversión de las 13 plantas (14 si se cuenta la planta baja que continuaría en poder de Telefónica) se torna complicada.


El presidente ejecutivo de Telefónica, Marc Murtra. Foto: Europa Press.

Sin poder reconfigurar los 36.000 metros cuadrados hacia el sector turístico al no poder hacer hotel ni viviendas, utilizar el espacio para hacer oficinas en una zona tan céntrica en la capital no compensa económicamente, según fuentes del sector inmobiliario consultadas por este medio.

El Edificio Telefónica tiene complicado el cambio de uso

La recalificación urbanística del inmueble se antoja como el principal escollo para cualquier inversor que aspire a transformarlo en un activo hotelero o residencial.

Su calificación actual prioriza el uso institucional o sociocultural —el mismo bajo el que opera el Espacio Fundación Telefónica—, lo que obliga a negociar con los técnicos municipales y, en la mayoría de los casos, a tramitar una modificación del Plan General de Ordenación Urbana (PGOU) o la aprobación de un Plan Especial.

Un proceso lento, caro y expuesto al escrutinio público que ahuyenta a los inversores con horizonte de retorno corto de entre 8 y 10 años.

A ello se suma el máximo nivel de protección patrimonial que el Ayuntamiento de Madrid otorga al edificio, el primer rascacielos de Europa desde su inauguración en 1929.

Fachada, estructura portante, escaleras principales y elementos ornamentales son intocables por ley, lo que imposibilita la redistribución masiva de espacios interiores que requeriría, por ejemplo, su conversión en un hotel con decenas de habitaciones independientes o en apartamentos residenciales al uso.


Fachada del edificio de Telefónica en la Gran Vía.

La tercera pata del problema es logística. El inmueble carece de aparcamiento subterráneo propio y su emplazamiento en plena Gran Vía, dentro de la zona de bajas emisiones, bloquea cualquier solución de acceso rodado.

Para un hotel de gran formato, la ausencia de espacio para carga y descarga o para el acceso de huéspedes en vehículo no es un detalle menor: es un desincentivo estructural. Son precisamente estas restricciones acumuladas las que han condicionado su valor en las operaciones de compraventa recientes, limitando severamente el margen para convertirlo en un activo inmobiliario convencional.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/bond-yields-may-finally-be-baking-an-ai-world-2026-05-20/

Bond yields may finally be baking in an AI world


Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 15, 2026. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon Purchase Licensing Rights

LONDON, May 20 (Reuters) - Although some are puzzled by the coincidence of an artificial intelligence boom and rising borrowing costs, they are closely linked. Beyond the immediate heat of the AI investment frenzy, a long-term productivity surge is lifting estimates of neutral interest rates even as workers' share of the GDP pie declines.

The Iran-related oil shock and its immediate inflation fallout explain some of ​this month's bond market jitters. Record-high stock markets have been harder to explain during an energy crunch.

But the sheer scale of AI capex - estimated by Goldman Sachs at $7.6 trillion over the next five ‌years - is perhaps a bigger driver of bonds and stocks alike, and is forcing investment firms to reassess the long-term macroeconomic impacts of AI more broadly.


Goldman Sachs chart on its estimates of AI capex spending through 2031

The idea remains controversial in some circles. But a growing consensus holds that the shift from savings to investment, combined with the boost to potential GDP growth from AI productivity gains, will push up R-star - the theoretical neutral real interest rate at which the economy sits in equilibrium.


The Fed still thinks its policy is 'restrictive'... but ...

Last week the Institute of International Finance said a successful AI cycle should raise R-star because higher expected returns and ​stronger capital formation will lift desired investment relative to savings.

"Markets should not assume a return to the very low real-rate world of the 2010s based on the ongoing AI boom," it added.


IIF chart on how AI should lead to a higher neutral interest rate

Barclays' annual Equity-Gilt Study on ​Tuesday reached a similar conclusion.

"Rising productivity, combined with large capital expenditure needs, points to a higher neutral real interest rate," it said.

Although the move has been aggravated by oil-fueled inflation ⁠and its implications for interest rates, long-term bond markets may finally be repricing to account for the latest wave of upgraded AI spending plans and the economic fallout.

With inflation-adjusted central bank policy rates turning negative even as a massive investment ​boom unfolds and long-term neutral rate estimates climb, policymakers risk falling badly behind the curve in tightening monetary policy.

Bond markets may be front-running the policy adjustment.

At the very least, it goes some way to explaining why both AI-led major ​stock indexes - such as the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab and Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab - and long-term bond yields are rising in parallel.

LABOR SHARE

What could come unstuck?

The other aspect of AI "futurology" in the economics world is what both generative AI and AI-infused robotics may mean for jobs and wages across the rest of the economy. Ultimately, that may put further pressure on the long-declining labor share of GDP versus capital, and by extension on inequality within economies.

TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins pored over this on Monday and concluded that he sees the AI boom as one that augments ​existing jobs rather than one that replaces them completely.

He showed how the wage share of GDP - which resumed its steep decline since the 1990s after a brief post-pandemic recovery - is closely correlated with R-star estimates.

The wage share should rise again, he argues, as workers ​demand more of the spoils through populist politics, fiscal activism and deglobalization.

"Either the wage share must recover, or all this talk about a new regime of structurally higher bond yields is probably wrong," he wrote.


TSLombard chart on how the wages share of income tracks neutral interest rate estimates

Yet the labor share is still falling - a ‌potentially sore ⁠political point for U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, which promised the opposite.

In its deep dive into AI's macro effects, the Barclays Equity-Gilt Study suggested that one reason the labor share will stay under pressure is that AI combined with AI-enhanced humanoid robotics widens the range of sectors and workers affected. Humanoid robotics may lift economy-wide productivity more than other AI forecasts suggest - but it will also affect more jobs.


Barclays version of OECD chart on how AI and AI robotics hit different sectors

"To the extent that AI + humanoid robotics accelerates the process of automation relative to augmentation, it will likely skew the distribution of national income further from labor towards capital," wrote Barclays' Christian Keller and Akash Utsav. "This has already occurred over past decades, and the aggregate slice that labor receives from the income generated by the economy could shrink ​further, as labor can be more easily substituted."


Barclays chart on the US labor share of national income

If labor's share ​of the pie declines further and weighs on demand, that may ⁠rein in rising bond yields to some degree, as TS Lombard's Perkins suggests.

But the Barclays economists think that, even if the effect on wage growth is ambiguous, one thing is clearer: the electricity and commodities needed to build and sustain the AI and robotics world may stoke long-term inflation pressures through power, energy and raw materials rather than jobs and wages.

That outlook ​leaves bond markets hoping for a recession to cool things down. But thanks largely to the AI surge, a downturn looks like a distant prospect to ​most investors.

Just 4% of global asset ⁠managers polled by Bank of America this month see a "hard landing" on the horizon. And more than 60% expect the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to top 6% over the next 12 months, suggesting that, for all the uncertainty, investors are still betting the AI boom has further to run.


Bank of America chart on how just 4% of global fund managers it polled this month see a 'hard landing' for the economy

[Derby]

https://www.aol.com/articles/analysis-ecb-banks-rift-hampers-050939000.html

Analysis-ECB, banks rift hampers Europe's efforts to loosen reliance on US payments giants


FILE PHOTO: Dark clouds are seen over the building of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, June 6, 2024. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo

MADRID/MILAN, May 22 (Reuters) - Europe's push to curb its dependence on U.S. payments giants Visa and Mastercard has driven a wedge between the European Central Bank and financial firms keen to shield revenues, hobbling efforts to build a home-grown system, several people involved said.

A surge in cashless payments since the COVID-19 ‌pandemic has increased the euro zone's reliance on U.S. firms, which handle nearly two thirds of card payments in the bloc. Companies such as PayPal and Apple have also ‌expanded.

European policymakers have made payments sovereignty a strategic priority, as a fragmenting global order raises the risk of access to payments systems being weaponised and new forms of money challenge the euro's role.

The ECB is looking to introduce a digital euro ​by 2029 - essentially an online wallet guaranteed by the ECB but operated by private companies including banks.

European banks, however, have expressed concerns that a digital euro would see customers transfer some cash from banks to the safety of an ECB-guaranteed wallet, and are exploring different options.

On Wednesday, 25 more banks, including ABN Amro and Sabadell, joined a European consortium planning to launch a euro-pegged cryptocurrency.

"Public and private actors are moving in the same strategic direction, but with misaligned incentives and timelines," said Paolo Gusmerini, director for digital banking at consultancy PwC.

CAP ON MERCHANT FEES

The financial sector's concerns have held up legislation, in the European Parliament, to issue ‌a digital currency for three years.

Fernando Navarrete, the EU lawmaker overseeing ⁠the legislation, told Reuters that negotiations regarding the exact role of the digital euro were still ongoing though he expected a final vote to take place before the end of the summer.

"Europe is moving toward payment sovereignty by developing both private interoperable payment solutions and the digital euro. The real challenge is to ⁠make the development of both options compatible and efficient without imposing additional costs on citizens," Navarrete said.

"And that depends on the design choices and incentives we agree upon in European legislation."

The ECB plans to supply for free the infrastructure it is building to support digital euro payments and to cap merchant fees for accepting them.

With euro zone card payments worth around 3.4 trillion euros ($3.9 trillion) a year, the cap could cost the private payments ​system ​8 billion to 9 billion euros in lost annual revenues, Reuters calculations on ECB data show.

One way to offset ​that hit could be by lowering interchange fees - the transaction fees the cardholder's ‌bank charges to the retailer's bank, analysts say.

"The digital euro still needs to address questions around acceptance and how the commercial value chain will work," said Kunal Jhanji, BCG's head of payments for Europe, Middle East, Africa and South America.

Euro zone merchants pay about 3.75 billion euros a year in debit card fees alone, roughly half to non-EU schemes and the rest to banks, ECB data shows.

To cap its impact on the wider financial sector, the digital euro legislation will set a limit on individual holdings, currently expected at 3,000 euros. That leaves scope for European banks, payments companies and tech startups to operate their own systems in parallel, although industry insiders and public officials pointed to the risks of having multiple systems that are more exposed to cyberattacks and technical failures.

Academic and former ECB ‌senior official Ulrich Bindseil recently described imposing a cap as "a serious defeat".

"We would expect commercial bank money to be ​junior to central bank money, not the opposite," Bindseil said.

FRAGMENTATION

The ECB sees the digital euro as a way to give ​the euro zone a single payments backbone the private sector never delivered.

As legal tender, it ​would have to be accepted by merchants, helping spread common standards across the bloc.

"Once the regulation is adopted, there will be certainty these standards will become ‌widespread ... and open for private solutions to use," said Ignacio Terol, who leads ​the ECB's digital euro strategy unit.

National payment systems such ​as Italy's Bancomat or Spain's Bizum have worked instead on interlinking their existing networks.

Bizum this month started expanding its person-to-person instant payment services directly to merchants, with Paris-based Wero moving in the same direction.

However, Terol noted that banks distributing services such as Bizum are already reaping payment revenue from international card partners - which could prevent them from making a competitive offer ​to a retailer to accept Bizum.

Norman Wooding, founder and CEO of crypto ‌services provider Scrypt, warned that rapid shifts in payments innovations by the private sector risked outpacing the ECB's project.

"Innovation is structurally ahead of regulation - you're assessing an orange ​in 2026 and by 2029 that could be an apple, or a banana. The delays are kneecapping," he said.

($1 = 0.8624 euros)

[Derby]

 https://www.ft.com/content/b13e35d4-93b2-4c24-8a30-412733978093

EU rejects UK push to create a single market for goods

Brussels said it would only discuss the ‘reset’ package of measures at the bloc’s next summit with Britain


Trucks at the Port of Dover. Two EU diplomats said the idea of a single market for goods was rejected but could be revived in July © Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

The EU has rebuffed a UK government push to access its single market for goods ahead of a summit set for July.

Britain had suggested it aligned with EU regulations to enable companies to trade freely with the 451mn-strong bloc in an attempt to kick-start moribund growth.

But the European Commission late on Friday said it would only discuss the “reset” package of measures agreed at last year’s summit along with co-operation on defence and migration.

Two EU diplomats told the FT that the idea of a single market for goods was rejected, although it could be revived as a future area of work at the summit, expected in mid-July.

The offer from Michael Ellam, the UK’s negotiator with Brussels, was only shown to a handful of member states that raised objections to the idea, they said.

“One concern was the UK could get a better deal than member states” by undercutting regulations, they added. “The UK did not want dynamic alignment on services. And many goods now include services, so there is a competitiveness issue. It would not be a level playing field.”

The UK would also not accept freedom of movement — one of the so-called four freedoms alongside goods, services and capital that underpin the single market. However, there was a “tacit understanding” it would contribute to the EU budget if a deal could have been agreed, according to the diplomats.

Member nations also said it was unfair to states such as Norway and Switzerland, which allow EU citizens to live and work in their countries in order to participate in the single market.

However, one of the diplomats said: “Member states told the Commission not to close the door. We welcome the ambitious thinking.”

A Commission spokesperson excluded the idea when asked to comment, focusing on the three agreements where talks were under way, including a veterinary deal that would reduce barriers to agrifood trade, a plan to link emissions trading systems and a mobility scheme for 18 to 30-year-olds.

“In view of the next summit, we are working to conclude the key files of last year’s Common Understanding: an SPS [sanitary and phytosanitary, or veterinary] agreement, ETS linkage, and a youth experience scheme, and to advance work on electricity trading.

“We also see scope to deepen co-operation where it matters most now: defence industrial co-operation, in particular the UK’s intention to enter discussions on its association to the EU’s Ukraine Support Loan; innovation, with ongoing discussions on UK participation in the European Innovation Council and the Scaleup Europe Fund; and co-operation to tackle irregular migration and fight smugglers’ networks.”

Sir Keir Starmer has pledged not to enter the single market or a customs union to avoid alienating pro-Brexit voters, limiting the economic upside of any deal.

But Wes Streeting, Starmer’s potential successor who resigned from the prime minister’s cabinet last week, has backed rejoining the bloc and many Labour MPs are pressing for closer ties.

Before last year’s summit the UK had pushed for “mutual recognition” of quality standards to ensure British goods could circulate freely, but that was rejected.

UK officials said they were focused on the reset package but exploring future areas of collaboration.
A Cabinet Office spokesperson said: “We have previously confirmed that the next UK-EU summit will be held this summer. A final date will be confirmed in due course. We are negotiating an ambitious package of measures with the EU ahead of the summit, including a food and drink SPS deal and emissions trading deal that, alone, are set to add up to £9bn a year to the UK economy by 2040.”

[Saturio]

Efectivamente.
Sois unos amargados y envidiosos:

Our MissionOur mission is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars. To do this, we have formed the most ambitious, vertically integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth with unmatched capabilities to rapidly manufacture and launch space-based communications that connect the world, to harness the Sun to power a truth-seeking artificial intelligence that advances scientific discovery, and ultimately to build a base on the Moon and cities on other planets.

Solo mala gente como vosotros no les daría todo su dinero a estos tipos.

With the potential to improve both space exploration and life on Earth, AI accelerates SpaceX’s mission to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.

Grok is designed as a truth-seeking AI model, built on our founder Elon Musk’s mission to enable humanity to understand the universe. We believe that accomplishing this mission requires a truth-seeking approach to AI. We define truth seeking as the active, relentless pursuit of what is objectively true about reality, and grounded in evidence, logic, empirical data, and first principles thinking.

La finalidad de Twiter no es más que la verdad y solo la verdad.

Grok also benefits from integration with X, our real-time information, entertainment, and free speech platform, which serves as a foundational distribution and data engine for our AI ecosystem and further enhances Grok’s truth-seeking objective.

Verdades como estas:

Space flight that historically cost billions per launch now costs in the tens of millions, fundamentally reducing the cost of space access and providing the opportunity to build new enterprises in space.

We do not want humans to have the same fate as dinosaurs

Están en otro nivel.

Space-based solar arrays can generate more than five times the energy per unit area of terrestrial solar due to continuous illumination, lack of atmospheric interference, and optimal orientation. SpaceX is well-positioned to capture this space-based solar energy through our ability to rapidly access Sun-synchronous orbit through our satellite manufacturing scale and launch capability.

We Believe Orbital AI Can Accelerate Time to Power and Reduce Token Costs. The Sun contains approximately 99.8% of the solar system’s energy and offers what we believe is the only truly scalable solution to the challenge of accelerating demand for compute relative to terrestrial energy constraints. The logical path forward is to move power-intensive AI workloads into orbit, where solar energy is near-constant and uninterrupted.

Bueno aquí lo dejo. Si estáis dispuestos a abrir vuestra mente y no dejar pasar la oportunidad de haceros muchimillonarios, aquí os dejo enlace al documento completo de la IPO de SpaceX.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/gabbard-resigns-trumps-national-intelligence-director-fox-news-digital-reports-2026-05-22/

Gabbard resigns as Trump's top US intelligence official

(...) Trump said Gabbard had done "a great ​job" but with her husband's cancer diagnosis, "she, rightfully, wants to be with him, bringing him back to good health as they currently fight a tough ⁠battle together."

A source familiar with the matter said that Gabbard had been forced out by the White House. The White House did not respond to a request for comment, but Davis Ingle, a White ​House spokesperson, said on X that Gabbard was departing in light of her husband's diagnosis.

Trump has hinted in the past at differences with Gabbard on their approach to Iran, saying in March that she was "softer" ​than him on curbing Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

In April, several sources told Reuters that Gabbard could lose her role in a broader cabinet shakeup.

A senior White House official said then that Trump had expressed displeasure with Gabbard in recent months. Another source with direct knowledge of the matter said the president had asked allies for their thoughts on potential replacements for his intelligence chief.(...)