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Cita de: Cadavre Exquis en Octubre 06, 2024, 21:28:37 pmhttps://www.expansion.com/empresas/motor/album/2024/10/04/66ffa68ee5fdead1718b45a2.htmlSaludos.Vaya precios por aparatos que tienen una complejidad técnica un poco por encima de un botijo. Cuando ya has aprendido ha desarrollar plataformas, carrocerías, periféricos y electrónica, ¿qué es más complicado? ¿desarrollar de cero un motor de combustión y una caja de cambios o liarte a meter pilas y conectarlas a motores con los que juegan los chavales en 1° de FP? Lo único complicado de un eléctrico es el software de gestión de la batería.Nos venden eléctricos como si su desarrollo y construcción se hiciera con pis de unicornio.. y los europeos se lo comen con una sonrisa para poder conseguir su etiqueta 0.
https://www.expansion.com/empresas/motor/album/2024/10/04/66ffa68ee5fdead1718b45a2.htmlSaludos.
Cita de: Cadavre Exquis en Octubre 13, 2024, 21:50:10 pmhttps://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2024-10-11/por-que-tesla-se-hunde-en-bolsa-despues-de-la-presentacion-del-cybercab.htmlhttps://www.expansion.com/mercados/2024/10/11/6709268d468aeb60658b457e.htmlSaludos.¿Por qué caen las acciones de Tesla?. Como se puede ver abajo, el valor en bolsa de Tesla es comparable al del resto de la industria automotriz (en número de unidades vendidas está en el puesto 15). En un entorno en el que la adopción eléctrica se está estancando, es posible que este año las ventas de Tesla sean menores que en 2023 (o en todo caso muy parecidas). El último modelo que ha sacado al mercado es el Cybertruk. Ante esta situación su CEO dice que de donde va a sacar el dinero es de licenciar el software de conducción asistida. De momento no puede enseñar ningún acuerdo de licencia. Luego dice que del robotaxi es de dónde va a sacar la pasta. Dice que estará en 2027 lo que con suerte significa 2032 y por un 50% más del precio que dice y eso si para entonces le dejan poner en el mercado un coche sin volante ni pedales.La cuestión es por qué no baja un 90%.Tesla TSLA $695.79 B Toyota TM $228.88 B BYD 002594.SZ $117.09 B Ferrari RACE $85.40 B Xiaomi XIACF $76.38 B Porsche P911.DE $70.77 B Mercedes-Benz MBG.DE $67.70 B General Motors GM $53.80 B BMW BMW.DE $52.72 B
https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2024-10-11/por-que-tesla-se-hunde-en-bolsa-despues-de-la-presentacion-del-cybercab.htmlhttps://www.expansion.com/mercados/2024/10/11/6709268d468aeb60658b457e.htmlSaludos.
EV battery costs set to halve by 2026, Goldman Sachs reportsAccording to Goldman Sachs Research, battery costs for electric vehicles are set to plummet by nearly 50 percent by 2026. This dramatic price drop, driven by technological advancements and falling metal prices, could revolutionize the auto industry.Nathan Ali · 2024.10.16[tdEV battery prices set to plummet, accelerating electric vehicle adoption (Image source: BYD)]Goldman Sachs Research says the cost of batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) is set to drop significantly, potentially revolutionizing the automotive industry. They expect the average price to fall from $149 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2023 to about $80/kWh by 2026. That’s a huge drop—almost 50 percent.There are two big reasons for this:Technological advancements: Newer batteries are packing in 30 percent more energy while costing less. Besides, remarkable innovations like cell-to-pack tech simplify production and boost energy capacity.Falling green metal prices: The price of key metals like lithium and cobalt, which make up around 60 percent of battery costs, is dropping. These metals increased in price from 2020 to 2023 but are now on the decline.The EV battery market remains dominated by lithium-based chemistries:Nickel-based batteries: ~60 percent market shareLithium Ferrophosphate (LFP) batteries: 35-40 percent market shareSodium-ion batteries: Emerging technology with limited current productionWhile solid-state batteries were initially anticipated to disrupt the market, their development has been delayed. Consequently, existing lithium-based technologies are expected to strengthen their position, with LFP batteries projected to increase their market share to 45 percent by 2025.The battery industry also presents significant barriers to entry:Extended development cycle: 10+ years from R&D to productionManufacturing expertise: Achieving cost-effective, high-quality production at scaleSkilled labor shortagesBecause of these challenges, a handful of companies dominate the market—about five control roughly 80 percent of it. That makes it challenging for new players to break in, especially since the industry is in a downturn.Goldman Sachs thinks that by 2026, the total cost of owning an EV will be about the same as owning a regular gas car in places like the U.S. While regulatory support may drive near-term EV adoption, particularly in 2025, a consumer-led adoption phase is expected to commence in 2026 as the economic advantages of EVs become more apparent.
EVs Are Just Going To WinPosted by msmash on Tuesday October 22, 2024 @02:10PM from the closer-look dept.An anonymous reader shares a post:CitarEVs are still winning. But they haven't won yet; only 4% of the global passenger car fleet, 23% of the bus fleet, and less than 1% of delivery trucks are electrified.But at this point I think the writing is on the wall. The phenomenon of a superior technology displacing an older, inferior technology is not uncommon, and it generally looks like the EV transition is looking now. When a new technology passes a 5% adoption rate, it almost never turns out to be inferior to what came before; with EVs, that threshold has now been reached in dozens of countries.In fact, we don't have to rely on trend-based forecasting to understand why EVs are just going to win. There are a number of fundamental factors that make EVs simply better than combustion vehicles. The longer time goes on, the more these inherent advantages will make themselves felt in the market.The first of these is price. Currently, EVs often require government subsidies in order to be price-competitive with combustion cars. But batteries are getting cheaper and cheaper as we get better and better at building them. The cheaper batteries get, the smaller the subsidies required to get people to switch to EVs. Goldman Sachs reports that this crucial tipping point will be reached in about two years:[...] Once batteries cross that tipping point, the EV revolution will take on its own momentum. It will simply be cheaper to buy an EV than a combustion car. People will gravitate toward the cheaper option, especially if it comes with other advantages. And in this case it does.EVs' second advantage is convenience. Most EV owners will almost never have to fill their cars up at a station. This is because they will charge their cars at night, in their own home garages or driveway.
EVs are still winning. But they haven't won yet; only 4% of the global passenger car fleet, 23% of the bus fleet, and less than 1% of delivery trucks are electrified.But at this point I think the writing is on the wall. The phenomenon of a superior technology displacing an older, inferior technology is not uncommon, and it generally looks like the EV transition is looking now. When a new technology passes a 5% adoption rate, it almost never turns out to be inferior to what came before; with EVs, that threshold has now been reached in dozens of countries.In fact, we don't have to rely on trend-based forecasting to understand why EVs are just going to win. There are a number of fundamental factors that make EVs simply better than combustion vehicles. The longer time goes on, the more these inherent advantages will make themselves felt in the market.The first of these is price. Currently, EVs often require government subsidies in order to be price-competitive with combustion cars. But batteries are getting cheaper and cheaper as we get better and better at building them. The cheaper batteries get, the smaller the subsidies required to get people to switch to EVs. Goldman Sachs reports that this crucial tipping point will be reached in about two years:[...] Once batteries cross that tipping point, the EV revolution will take on its own momentum. It will simply be cheaper to buy an EV than a combustion car. People will gravitate toward the cheaper option, especially if it comes with other advantages. And in this case it does.EVs' second advantage is convenience. Most EV owners will almost never have to fill their cars up at a station. This is because they will charge their cars at night, in their own home garages or driveway.
CitarEVs Are Just Going To WinPosted by msmash on Tuesday October 22, 2024 @02:10PM from the closer-look dept.An anonymous reader shares a post:CitarEVs are still winning. But they haven't won yet; only 4% of the global passenger car fleet, 23% of the bus fleet, and less than 1% of delivery trucks are electrified.But at this point I think the writing is on the wall. The phenomenon of a superior technology displacing an older, inferior technology is not uncommon, and it generally looks like the EV transition is looking now. When a new technology passes a 5% adoption rate, it almost never turns out to be inferior to what came before; with EVs, that threshold has now been reached in dozens of countries.In fact, we don't have to rely on trend-based forecasting to understand why EVs are just going to win. There are a number of fundamental factors that make EVs simply better than combustion vehicles. The longer time goes on, the more these inherent advantages will make themselves felt in the market.The first of these is price. Currently, EVs often require government subsidies in order to be price-competitive with combustion cars. But batteries are getting cheaper and cheaper as we get better and better at building them. The cheaper batteries get, the smaller the subsidies required to get people to switch to EVs. Goldman Sachs reports that this crucial tipping point will be reached in about two years:[...] Once batteries cross that tipping point, the EV revolution will take on its own momentum. It will simply be cheaper to buy an EV than a combustion car. People will gravitate toward the cheaper option, especially if it comes with other advantages. And in this case it does.EVs' second advantage is convenience. Most EV owners will almost never have to fill their cars up at a station. This is because they will charge their cars at night, in their own home garages or driveway.Saludos.
By Kosmosi - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0,
https://www.expansion.com/empresas/motor/2024/10/23/6719629f468aeb293a8b45ab.htmlSaludos.
Tesla will make the cheapest EV battery in the US with new 4680 cell technologyTesla is 'rapidly approaching the point' when its homebrew 4680 battery cells will be the cheapest to manufacture among all EV makers in the US.Daniel Zlatev · 2024.10.24First Cybertruck with dry 4680 battery cathode (Image source: Cole Otto/LinkedIn)First Cybertruck with dry 4680 battery cathode (Image source: Cole Otto/LinkedIn)Tesla is reportedly going to equip all of its bestselling vehicles in the US with customized 4680 cells made in its own factories, and it is now confident that it can make the cheapest EV batteries in the US.There will eventually be four different types of 4680 battery packs, like the current ones it makes for the Cybertruck, that will be designed and ready for production in 2025.The other variants will be tailored for use in the 40 kWh battery that will power the 200-mile range of the upcoming Robotaxi, as well as for the Model 3 and Model Y that Tesla sells in large volumes.Just this spring, Tesla's volume production of 4680 batteries wasn't going according to plans. Elon Musk even had to dismiss Tesla's battery head and the person responsible for the 4680 production expansion at Giga Texas, as their vision was to proceed with its development in a more gradual manner.During the annual shareholder event, Musk even mentioned that if Tesla can't lower the production costs of the 4680 battery to that of its suppliers by the end of the year, it will throw in the towel and source them from Panasonic or LG.Tesla then appointed new 4680 battery development team head - Bonne Eggleston - who set lofty production goals from the very first meeting. A couple of months later, Tesla achieved a 4680 battery breakthrough and demonstrated its first Cybertruck with factory cells made with the cheapest dry cathode method.Tesla is now ready to produce dry cathode batteries en masse in 2025, and may soon hit the promised 50% cost reduction goal that it announced on Battery Day in 2020. So much so, that Elon Musk said during the Q3 earnings call that the Tesla-made 4680 cells will soon go into the cheapest battery packs ever produced in the US when accounting for import taxes on supplier cells, as well as the federal incentive of $45 per kWh of made-in-USA batteries.This may allow Tesla to lower the prices of its vehicles under the proverbial $30,000 mark, added Elon, but he was quick to point out that Tesla will still order a lot from its suppliers as its vehicle and energy storage businesses grow:CitarThe cell 4680 lines, the team is actually doing great work there. The 4680 is rapidly approaching the point where it is the most competitive set. So when you consider the fully landed - the cost of a battery pack, fully landed in the U.S. net of incentives and duties, the 4680 is tracking to be the most competitive. Meaning lower cost [Indiscernible] considered than any other alternative. We're not quite there yet, but we're close to being there, which I think is, extremely exciting. And we've got several - a lot of ideas to go well beyond that. So if I think there's - if we execute well, the 4680 will have the - Tesla internally produced cell will be the most cost competitive cell in North America, a testament to a tremendous amount of hard work there by the team. So that's - we'll continue to buy a lot of cells from our competitors. Our intent is not to make to provide to make cells just internally. So I don't want to set off any alarm bells here. We're also increasing substantially our vehicle output and our stationary storage output. So we need a lot of cells. And most of them will still come from suppliers, but I think it is some good news that the Tesla internal cell is likely - is tracking to be the most competitive in the U.S.
The cell 4680 lines, the team is actually doing great work there. The 4680 is rapidly approaching the point where it is the most competitive set. So when you consider the fully landed - the cost of a battery pack, fully landed in the U.S. net of incentives and duties, the 4680 is tracking to be the most competitive. Meaning lower cost [Indiscernible] considered than any other alternative. We're not quite there yet, but we're close to being there, which I think is, extremely exciting. And we've got several - a lot of ideas to go well beyond that. So if I think there's - if we execute well, the 4680 will have the - Tesla internally produced cell will be the most cost competitive cell in North America, a testament to a tremendous amount of hard work there by the team. So that's - we'll continue to buy a lot of cells from our competitors. Our intent is not to make to provide to make cells just internally. So I don't want to set off any alarm bells here. We're also increasing substantially our vehicle output and our stationary storage output. So we need a lot of cells. And most of them will still come from suppliers, but I think it is some good news that the Tesla internal cell is likely - is tracking to be the most competitive in the U.S.
No se ha convencido a los fabricantes del cambio tecnológico y los fabricantes no están convencidos porque los clientes finales no están convencidos. Personalmente no estoy convencido y entiendo que no soy un bicho raro. No me voy a comprar un coche notablemente más caro para tener que preocuparme de cosas de las que ahora no me preocupo sobre todo cuando mi kilometraje es reducido y la diferencia entre el coste de la gasolina y la electricidad no va a compensar en la vida el sobrecoste del coche. Entiendo que hay gente en una posición diferente, aparentemente un 4%.Al final me pueden convencer. Se necesitaría un precio más reducido, una autonomía mayor y que me solucionasen lo de la carga. Pero eso con la tecnología actual es imposible y lo de la carga es otro tema aparte porque si un 30% de los coches fuesen Evs se necesitaría toda una infraestructura de carga muy, muy lejos de la actual (y pienso en el garaje comunitario en el que aparco normalmente o en el aparcamiento de la empresa donde trabajo).El resumen es que la tecnología actual no es capaz de convencer a un suficiente número de clientes finales.En todo esto pueden afectar dos cosas. La primera es que todos los coches tienen una vida útil y cuando mi giradiscos palme si no hay otra cosa que CDs en el mercado me compraré un lector y a partir de ahí compraré CDs y no vinilos. Es decir, a la larga no hay que convencer tanto a los consumidores como a los fabricantes pero estos tienen el problema de que su producto tiene un ciclo de vida largo y aunque sólo produjesen Ev´s, durante años los clientes alargarían la vida de sus coches. La segunda cosa son los aspectos regulatorios, desde las zonas de bajas emisiones a directamente prohibir coches viejos y a limitar tanto las prestaciones de los ICE´s que al final la elección sea más fácil o incluso forzada.