El hilo de China

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Qué cansinas son las burbujas...

¿Quién se quejó o se alarmó cuando el índice subió de 2100 a 5300 en 12 meses?

Cuando los inversores hacen subir mi índice comprando, son unos tíos cojonudos y responsables. Cuando lo hacen bajar vendiendo, son unos especuladores, cerdos y terroristas.

[muyuu]

Otro rebotito, como los del día 6/07, 30/06 y 24/06. Bull trap de libro... el mercado no va a empezar siquiera a buscar el equilibrio hasta que caiga a los 3000 puntos.

Si hay owned me paso la semana que viene a buscarlo gustoso.

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-civil-society-nationalism-soft-power-by-joseph-s--nye-2015-07

CAMBRIDGE – China has been making major efforts to increase its ability to influence other countries without force or coercion. In 2007, then-President Hu Jintao told the Communist Party that the country needed to increase its soft power; President Xi Jinping repeated the same message last year. They know that, for a country like China, whose growing economic and military power risks scaring its neighbors into forming counter-balancing coalitions, a smart strategy must include efforts to appear less frightening. But their soft-power ambitions still face major obstacles.

To be sure, China’s efforts have had some impact. As China enrolls countries as members of its Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and doles out billions of dollars of aid during state visits abroad, some observers worry that, when it comes to soft power, China could actually be taking the lead over countries like the United States. The American sinologist David Shambaugh, for example, estimates that the country spends roughly $10 billion a year in “external propaganda.” By comparison, the US spent only $666 million on public diplomacy last year.

Yet the billions of dollars China is spending on its charm offensive have had only a limited return. Polls in North America, Europe, India, and Japan show that opinions about China’s influence are predominantly negative. The country is viewed more positively in Latin America and Africa, where it has no territorial disputes and human-rights concerns are not always high on the public agenda. But even in many countries in those regions, Chinese practices like importing labor for infrastructure projects are unpopular.

Combining hard and soft power into a smart strategy, it turns out, is not easy. A country derives its soft power primarily from three resources: its culture (in places that find it appealing), its political values (when it lives up to them at home and abroad), and its foreign policies (when they are seen as legitimate and having moral authority). China has emphasized its cultural and economic strengths, but it has paid less attention to the political aspects that can undermine its efforts.

Two major factors limit China’s soft power, as measured by recent international polls. The first is nationalism. The Communist Party has based its legitimacy not only on a high rate of economic growth, but also on appeals to nationalism. Doing so has reduced the universal appeal of Xi’s “Chinese Dream,” while encouraging policies in the South China Sea and elsewhere that antagonize its neighbors.

With, for example, China bullying the Philippines over possession of disputed islands in the South China Sea, the Confucius Institute that China established in Manila to teach Chinese culture can win only so much goodwill. (China has opened some 500 such institutes in more than 100 countries.) The consequences of the country’s foreign policy can be seen in last year’s anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam following the positioning of a Chinese oil drilling rig in waters claimed by both countries.

The other limit is China reluctance to take full advantage of an uncensored civil society. As noted by The Economist, the Chinese Communist Party has not bought into the idea that soft power springs largely from individuals, the private sector, and civil society. Instead, it has clung to the view that the government is the main source of soft power, promoting ancient cultural icons that it thinks might have global appeal, often using the tools of propaganda.

In today’s media landscape, information is abundant. What is scarce is attention, which depends on credibility – and government propaganda is rarely credible. For all of China’s efforts to position the Xinhua news agency and China Central Television as competitors of CNN and the BBC, the international audience for brittle propaganda is vanishingly small.

The US, by contrast, derives much of its soft power not from the government, but from civil society – everything from universities and foundations to Hollywood and pop culture. China does not yet have global cultural industries on the scale of Hollywood or universities capable of rivaling America’s. Even more important, it lacks the many non-governmental organizations that generate much of America’s soft power.

In addition to generating good will and promoting the country’s image abroad, non-governmental sources of soft power can sometimes compensate for the government’s unpopular policies – like the US invasion of Iraq – through their critical and uncensored reaction. China, by contrast, has watched its government policies undermine its soft-power successes.

Indeed, the domestic crackdown on human-rights activists undercut the soft-power gains of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. And the benefits of the 2009 Shanghai Expo were rapidly undermined by the jailing of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo and the television screens around the world broadcasting scenes of an empty chair at the Oslo ceremonies. Marketing experts call this “stepping on your own message.”

China’s aid programs are often successful and constructive. Its economy is strong, and its traditional culture is widely admired. But if the country is to realize its enormous soft-power potential, it will have to rethink its policies at home and abroad, limiting its claims upon its neighbors and learning to accept criticism in order to unleash the full talents of its civil society. As long as China fans the flames of nationalism and holds tight the reins of party control, its soft power will always remain limited.

[muyuu]

Sigo apostando por nuevos mínimos la semana que viene.

[muyuu]

! No longer available	Small | Large

[JENOFONTE10]

Sigo apostando por nuevos mínimos la semana que viene.

Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index
SZCOMP:IND
2,190.419
+ 103.902
+ 4.98%
As of 03:00:40 ET on 07/17/2015.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SZCOMP:IND

2190 hoy, es un rebote de 16% desde mínimos: 1884 (7/7/2015). Nuevos mínimos, en esta semana no.

El comunismo chino parece en pleno cursillo acelerado para controlar mercados bursátiles capitalistas.

Saludos.

[muyuu]

Efectivamente no hay nuevos mínimos esta semana como esperaba. También es cierto que han entrado nuevas prohibiciones a la venta 

Veremos cómo termina este mercado pero su credibilidad está seriamente tocada.

[muyuu]

Otro rebotito, como los del día 6/07, 30/06 y 24/06. Bull trap de libro... el mercado no va a empezar siquiera a buscar el equilibrio hasta que caiga a los 3000 puntos.

Si hay owned me paso la semana que viene a buscarlo gustoso.

Ya voy declarando la aceptación del owned independientemente de posibles caídas más adelante.

Ahora mismo la cosa sigue con rebotes pero por encima de mínimos recientes.

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-17/how-china-hiding-its-hard-landing

[JENOFONTE10]

Otro rebotito, como los del día 6/07, 30/06 y 24/06. Bull trap de libro... el mercado no va a empezar siquiera a buscar el equilibrio hasta que caiga a los 3000 puntos.

Si hay owned me paso la semana que viene a buscarlo gustoso.

Ya voy declarando la aceptación del owned independientemente de posibles caídas más adelante.

Ahora mismo la cosa sigue con rebotes pero por encima de mínimos recientes.

Solo quería mostrar (no demostrar) la dificultad de predecir un mercado bursátil a partir de los gráficos, incluso en aparente tendencia 'técnica' impecable, que es mucho mayor aún si las autoridades son comunistas novatos en disimular 'toqueteos'.

Saludos.

[muyuu]

Hombre, yo creo que eso está bastante claro. Yo llevo trabajando en predicción de mercados muchos años, si fuera tan fácil todas las mayores fortunas del mundo serían especuladores. (Además estamos hablando de un mercado muy manipulado).

Salu2

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/Investors-flock-to-sell-properties-cancel-contracts

HONG KONG -- Turbulence on China's equity market is starting to rock the country's property market. Investors are quickly pulling their cash out of housing they purchased to cover losses incurred by stock investments. Some have begun offering discounts on property due to difficulties with finding buyers. Continued turmoil on the stock market looks as though it will have a heavy impact on the country's real estate market.

Until recently, the property market showed signs of picking up in major cities and some regions, thanks in part to lower interest rates, eased home purchase restrictions and other measures taken by authorities. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, prices for new houses, excluding those for low-income earners, in 70 major cities for May rose an average of 0.7% from the previous month. China Index Academy, a Chinese private think tank, said that house prices in 100 major cities rose for the second straight month in June on a month-on-month basis. In the first half of the year, China's home sales picked up 12.9% on the year, from the 5.1% increase for the five months through May.

Short-lived dream

China's stock market rally also helped drive up sales of domestic homes. The Shanghai Composite Index surged 60% from its low of around 3,200 in early March, rising to 5,166 logged on June 12. China Securities Depository and Clearing said that the number of accounts opened to trade yuan-denominated A-shares reached 980,000 in May in Shenzhen, where property prices are climbing faster than other areas. The figure accounted for roughly 80% of the total 1170,000 accounts in Guangdong Province, where large numbers of such account holders reside.

     Many newbie investors, who have just jumped into the stock market, likely gave a fresh impetus to the property market. China's share price upswing prompted investors to reach out for new investments, including houses and other properties. A property analyst at major Chinese brokerage Guotai Junan Securities said that sales of luxury properties worth over 10 million yuan ($1.61 million) each for the first half of the year topped annual sales last year in Shanghai and Beijing.

Ending in smoke?

After this, Chinese stocks began to crumble. In early July, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped more than 30%, after hitting a seven-year high in mid-June. Investors who suffered big losses on the stock market were forced to sell property and cancel real estate purchase agreements. The Hong Kong Economic Times said that consumers are increasingly asking real estate firms for grace periods on down payments for mortgage loans, as they run out of cash because of weak stocks.

     Some canceled home purchase contracts, while others canceled mortgage loans, according to China's largest property developer China Vanke, which has a strong foothold in Shenzhen. Local media reported that an official at China Vanke is concerned about massive numbers of cancellations in the future.

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

Beijing's New Supercity: Jing-Jin-Ji

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/20/world/asia/in-china-a-supercity-rises-around-beijing.html

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/video/players/offsite/index.html?videoId=100000003802556

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

Nuevo post del zaragozano experto en China:

http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/07/interpreting-information-in-chinas-stock-markets/