PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Verano 2022

[sudden and sharp]

No es por fastidiar... pero a corto plazo también hay que hacer algo. (Hasta cierto punto.)

[Benzino Napaloni]

No es por fastidiar... pero a corto plazo también hay que hacer algo. (Hasta cierto punto.)

El problema es que ese "algo" se ha ido abandonando, y ahora ya es elegir susto o muerte.

Si realmente hay un problema con la energía, hay que tomar una estrategia casi de guerra: aislar a conciencia lo que sea salvable, y piqueta para lo demás. Pero eso implicaría pinchar El Pisito, y priorizar el teletrabajo tanto como se pueda. Que se ha dicho de boquilla, pero ya se ha visto lo que se cumple.

Es descaradísimo ver cómo lo poco que se está haciendo es para que nos den los fondos Covid, sin ellos na de na de na.

[Derby]

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/bde-frenazo-economico-espana-signos-debilitamiento.html

El BdE alerta del frenazo económico en España: "Ya hay signos de debilitamiento"

Varios indicadores registran una ralentización o incluso una contracción en el tercer trimest

El Banco de España (BdE) alerta este lunes del frenazo que está sufriendo la economía española en el tercer trimestre. Tras un primer trimestre positivo, en el que la actividad económica repuntó un 1,1% gracias al impulso del consumo de los hogares, prevé una desaceleración ya en este tercer trimestre por la inflación persistente, la incertidumbre, la crisis energética y el endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras, entre otros factores.

En una presentación en la Bolsa de Madrid este lunes, el director general de Economía y Estadística del Banco de España, Ángel Gavilán, ha apuntado que son varios los "signos evidentes de debilitamiento" de la economía española. El empleo (aún un 0,2% por debajo del nivel precovid en número de horas trabajadas y con un mal desempeño de la afiliación en julio y agosto), así como los indicadores de confianza, de consumo y de producción apuntan ya a una ralentización de la actividad del país en el tercer trimestre, según el BdE.

El organismo actualizó sus previsiones económicas antes del verano, cuando calculó que la economía crecería un 4,1% este año (frente al 4,5% estimado en abril) pero recortó tres décimas el IPC medio de 2022. En este sentido, ha aprovechado la ocasión para advertir de que la inflación elevada perdurará más tiempo de lo esperado. Asimismo, ha recordado que, a cierre del segundo trimestre, la economía aún seguía un 2,5% por debajo del PIB prepandemia, frente a la inmensa mayoría de la Unión Europea (UE).

España, Eslovaquia y República Checa son los únicos países de la UE que a cierre del segundo trimestre no habían recuperado totalmente su economía del varapalo que supuso el coronavirus, según confirmó Eurostat el pasado miércoles. Aunque a principios de año eran siete los países que todavía no habían superado la crisis, esta lista se recortó en el segundo trimestre después de que Alemania e Italia, dos países que arrancaron el 2022 por debajo del nivel prepandemia, hayan alcanzado ese umbral.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-11/world-s-hottest-housing-markets-are-down-all-over-as-interest-rates-hike

The World’s Hottest Housing Markets Are Facing a Painful Reset

Frothy property markets are poised for double-digit price declines as consumers face mounting financial pressures.

Around the world, soaring borrowing costs are squeezing homebuyers and property owners alike.

From Sydney to Stockholm to Seattle, buyers are pulling back as central banks raise interest rates at the fastest pace in decades, sending house prices falling. Meanwhile, millions of people who borrowed cheaply to purchase homes during the pandemic boom face higher payments as loans reset.

The rapid cooldown in real estate — a leading source of household wealth — threatens to worsen a global economic downturn. While the slump so far isn’t near the levels of the 2008 financial crisis, how the decline plays out is a key variable for central bankers who want to tamp down inflation without hurting consumer confidence and triggering a deep recession.

Already, frothy markets such as Australia and Canada are facing double-digit house-price declines, and economists believe the worldwide downswing is only getting started.

“We will observe a globally synchronized housing market downturn in 2023 and 2024,” said Hideaki Hirata of Hosei University, a former Bank of Japan economist who co-authored an International Monetary Fund paper on global house prices. He warns the full impact of this year’s aggressive rate hikes will take time to play out for households.

“Sellers often overlook signs of shrinking demand,” he said. 

Higher real estate financing costs hit economies in multiple ways. Households with loans tighten their belts, while rising mortgage payments discourage would-be buyers from entering the market, dragging on property prices and development.

The slowdown is a stark turnaround from a boom fueled by central banks’ easy-money policies in the years after the financial crisis and then supercharged by a pandemic that sent people searching for bigger spaces and remote-work-friendly homes. Now, many people who paid record prices face loans due to reset higher just as soaring inflation and a potential recession hit.

“Young families that have taken on debt have never experienced in their lifetime a sharp rise in interest rates at a time when their real, inflation-adjusted wages are falling,” said Rob Subbaraman, head of global markets research at Nomura Holdings Inc. “This could come as quite a shock to them.”

Variable Risk

How exposed borrowers are to rising rates varies notably by country. In the US, for instance, most buyers rely on fixed-rate home loans for as long as 30 years. Adjustable-rate mortgages represented, on average, about 7% of conventional loans in the past five years. By contrast, other nations commonly have loans fixed for as little as a year, or variable-rate mortgages that move closely in line with official interest rates.

Australia, Spain, the UK and Canada had the highest concentration of variable-rate loans as a share of new originations in 2020, according to a May report from Fitch Ratings.

Other countries have a large proportion of mortgages resetting imminently: In New Zealand, for instance, about 55% of the outstanding value of residential mortgages is either on a floating rate or on a fixed rate that needs to be renewed in the year to July 2023.

New Zealand, where prices rose close to 30% in 2021 alone, is something of a poster child of the pandemic housing boom — and its unraveling. The central bank has hiked interest rates seven times in the past 10 months and house prices were down 11% in July from the peak in November last year, according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand. Economists predict they may eventually drop as much as 20%.

Femke Burger, a 33-year-old insurance case manager, bought a house in the Wellington region in March 2021 for NZ$825,000 ($504,000). In the months that followed, the value of her property raced to NZ$1 million, according to house valuation websites. Those gains have evaporated. Her two-bedroom, semi-detached property is now valued at about the same amount she paid for it.

“I definitely feel as though there’s been a reduction in my own personal financial wellbeing,” said Burger, who must refinance her mortgage in the next 12 months. While she’s confident she can handle the increase in interest rates, it will still hurt.

Economic Impact

New Zealand, like most developed world economies, is weathering the housing slowdown so far. Household balance sheets and savings are strong, labor markets are thriving and lending standards have tightened since the mid-2000s boom that sparked the financial crisis — meaning a cascade of defaults is unlikely.

Many property owners are still sitting on plenty of home equity from years of soaring prices, and in some overheated areas, lower values may allow buyers to enter the market.

“Given that the housing affordability crisis is very serious in many major economies, cooling house prices may result in some positive effects,” said Kwan Ok Lee, who specializes in housing at the National University of Singapore.

Economists, however, are still nervous. If the paper losses experienced by homebuyers such as Burger turn into more material declines for households, banks and developers, that could hit a slowing world economy the International Monetary Fund has warned is teetering on the edge of recession.

“If central banks tighten too far, the prospect of a soft landing diminishes,” said Niraj Shah of Bloomberg Economics. “House prices could fall faster, exacerbating and prolonging a recession.”

In some countries, governments have already intervened to help hard-pressed consumers facing rapidly escalating repayments. In South Korea — one of the first Asia-Pacific economies to start hiking rates — policymakers recently agreed to outlay more than 400 billion won ($290 million) in funds to help reduce the share of households on variable-rate mortgages.

And in Poland, where monthly payments for some borrowers have doubled as rates rise, the government stepped in earlier this year to allow Poles to suspend payments for up to eight months. The move wiped out profits of major banks after the industry was forced to book about 13 billion zloty ($2.78 billion) in provisions.

China is dealing with an escalating property crisis tied to a wave of developer defaults and borrowers withholding payments on mortgages for unbuilt homes. In other countries, the ripples are also starting to spread.

In Sweden, formerly one of Europe’s hottest markets, home prices have fallen about 8% since the spring, with most economists now expecting a 15% drop. Rising rates also are pressuring property companies that borrowed heavily on the bond markets to finance their operations, leaving investors increasingly concerned about their ability to refinance that debt.

Price declines also are accelerating in the UK. Home values are flat or dropping in almost half of London’s boroughs, a Bloomberg analysis shows. HSBC Holdings Plc has warned the UK is on the “cusp of a housing downturn” and demand probably will plunge 20% over the following year.

About 1.8 million UK borrowers are due to refinance in the next year. Most vulnerable are the first-time buyers who bought homes as prices spiraled during a stamp duty tax holiday introduced in summer 2020 to bolster the market during the pandemic. Those who fixed for the short term face significantly higher repayments at a time when real wages are falling at a record pace and the cost of living is soaring.

While the US has less risk from resetting mortgages, the surge in borrowing costs in recent months has pushed price-squeezed buyers into more flexible loans that carry cheaper interest rates. The share of adjustable-rate mortgages in loan applications jumped in July to the highest level in 15 years, according to Zillow Group Inc. data.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts US national prices will flatten in 2023, though there are already signs of more rapid declines in certain regions. Sellers are slashing prices in pandemic boom areas that attracted remote workers and experienced some of the biggest gains in recent years, while homebuilders are contending with a glut of inventory they can’t sell.

Braced for Pain

In Australia and Canada — two of the world’s bubbliest markets — economists anticipate a notable crunch.

While requirements that most Canadian borrowers be stress tested before they get a mortgage make widespread defaults unlikely, a round of belt tightening that could be felt economy-wide looks increasingly certain. Variable-rate mortgages accounted for nearly 60% of all new home loans at the height of the country’s real estate frenzy earlier this year.

 Of the rough half a trillion Canadian dollars’ worth of variable mortgage debt outstanding, about a third have seen their monthly payments go up in line with the central bank’s benchmark rate, according to research from the National Bank of Canada. Combined with things like lines of credit and fixed-rate mortgages coming up for renewal, these rising interest payments could collectively shave 0.65% off Canadians’ collective disposable income over the next three years, the research shows.

“We are at risk of seeing a material slowdown in spending activity,” said Robert Kavcic, an economist at the Bank of Montreal. “We’re not technically forecasting a recession, but we’re very close.”

The alarm bells are perhaps ringing the loudest in Australia, where home prices in August recorded their largest monthly decline in almost four decades. While cashed-up households have so far shown resilience to rising interest rates, a pinch point will come next year, with billions in mortgage loans fixed at record-low interest rates coming up for refinancing. In Australia, fixed-term loans tend to be for a relatively short duration of two to three years.

That stands to hurt homeowners such as Sindhuja Vetcha, a 30-year-old architect who dipped her toe into the Sydney property market last May, hoping interest rates would remain at record lows. But as the price of everything from petrol to food surged, loan repayments for her two-bedroom apartment in Sydney’s west also started going up rapidly. She’s already paying A$260 ($178) a month more just for the 40% of the loan that was on variable term, and rates are tipped to rise still further.

At the same time, the value of her home has taken a beating — similar properties are currently being advertised for around A$70,000 less than she paid — meaning it will be a while before she is in positive equity again.

“It’s way beyond what the property will ever be worth any time in the near future,” Vetcha said.

[el malo]

Leo las noticias que nos trae Derby y pienso si soy yo el único loco del mundo o si soy el cuerdo que tiene que beber de la fuente para volverse normal.

No acabo de entender como un crash del mercado inmobiliario es una mala noticia.

Sí sí, ya se lo que me van a decir de colaterales, y empresas constructoras y tal, pero ¿tan difícil es hacer un paco con la banca para que se coma esos colaterales hasta que la cosa remonte?

Ya se les ha rescatado con dinero público más de una vez. Igual va siendo hora de exigirle algo a cambio ¿no?

Aparte del impacto financiero, en el mundo real sería una excelentísima noticia. Pisos para que la gente viva, tenga hijos, se mude cuando tenga que mudarse y no se ate a trabajos o relaciones porque no tienen alternativa. Locales baratos para montar negocios..

[Benzino Napaloni]

No acabo de entender como un crash del mercado inmobiliario es una mala noticia.

Hombre, es el fin del rentismo. Cuando te acostumbras a lo bueno, a forrarte sin pegar un palo al agua, es muy difícil volver a picar después.

Y si encima es un rentismo del que comen muchas bocas, y si además le ponemos la guinda del pastel, tener a la masa domada porque cree que posee algo, el cuadro está claro.

Una vez que se consume el pinchazo nos preguntaremos que cómo pudimos hacer estas locuras, pero a día de hoy sólo le preocupa a cuatro gatos que esté cerrando un negocio tras otro, o que muchos currantes estén más quemados que la pipa de un indio por matarse a trabajar para regalar medio salario al del palillo. Como la mujer de tu trabajo que comentabas hace unos días, la que como le casquen una sola subida más manda Londres, el trabajo, y la madre que lo parió a zurrir mierdas. Pues imagina cuantos más habrá así.

[Manu Oquendo]

The long winter freeze.


Hace unos días tuve la suerte de comer con un filósofo social y sociólogo  no muy conocido del gran público pero respetado entre especialistas de muchos países. En España hay tres o cuatro que a muy avanzada edad siguen haciendo trabajos esporádicos para distintos gobiernos dentro y fuera de Occidente incluyendo China y Rusia.

Éramos cuatro a la mesa y nuestro invitado abrió refiriéndose a la UE como a un sistema soviético y colonial todavía disfrazado de buen rollito. El profesor, al filo de los noventa y trabajando en la revisión de pruebas de su ultimo libro, no está ya para guardar formas hipócritamente diplomáticas pero el caso es que los otros dos comensales, uno de ellos un "ex" del PC histórico, estaban de acuerdo.

Hace unos días, en un chiringuito cercano a una playa del Norte, pedí un café y al ir a pagar ví un letrero que decía. "No se admiten tarjetas de crédito. Sólo efectivo para defender la libertad. Gracias". En la calle se habla de esto. Los "intelectuales" callan.

El viernes pasado comí en Oviedo con un industrial preocupado porque, me decía, están cerradas dos de cada tres unidades de cogeneración en plantas. Hablaba con datos de su sector en la mano y citaba la subida de los "derechos" de CO2 como el principal y silenciado factor. El impuestazo.

Ensidesa cerraba uno de los dos altos hornos todavía operativos y el periódico local traía un reportaje sobre el cierre en Polonia de otra planta de Arcelor por la misma causa. Las plantas de Fensch y Florange en Dunkerque igual. Lo mismo en Hamburgo y Duisburg.
En la prensa de Madrid y Barcelona no se podía leer nada de lo precedente.

De hecho seguimos creyendo que el problema es el "precio del gas" que solo es un subterfugio para incent¡var más todavía la inversión empresarial en las fuentes renovables que queremos tener. La gran burbuja ya está en los billones de Euros.


Parece que ya lo empiezan a pillar y el "tope al precio del gas" debe realmente entenderse como el "tope al precio de las renovables".


Por otra parte, la delirante y de antemano fracasada no-política industrial de la UE no nos dice cómo vamos a abastecernos de las cosas que,  por decisiones suyas de hace muchos años, no pueden fabricarse aquí: Fertilizantes, vidrio, cementos, ladrillos, cerámicas, aluminio, acero, metales varios y, en general cualquier producto con algo de energía en su "despiece". El "despiece" es lo que en Producción se conoce como "Bill of Materials".

Pero hay otros "despieces" Por ejemplo el "Despiece Regulatorio y Fiscal": Entre prohibiciones y fiscalidad, más del 80% del "despiece" de costes europeos es "autoinfligido". Sin liderazgo tecnológico, desaparecido ya, la UE es un Hospital de Terminales que trodavía no se ha dado cuenta. Como el de Górliz.
La misma filosofía que se cargó a la URSS impregna hoy nuestro sistema de Poder Social.

Mientras todo esto se gestaba bajo directrices de los burócratas de Bruselas, en Europa cerraban --ya en los 90-- todas las marcas de "mainframes" y minicomputers europeos --al menos seis o siete marcas. Plegaba a efectos prácticos una gran base de datos alemana (Adabas) y nunca llegó a haber el menor atisbo de software básico, utilities y sistemas operativos. Tampoco procesadores de silicio. Ni ahora que ya están cerca del final de su ciclo tecnológico.

Mientras tanto esta misma casta copiaba e imponía el sistema educativo USA y aceleraba el desguace de generaciones de jóvenes europeos hasta colocarnos tras Corea del Sur en Patentes y Propiedad Intelectual.

Esta misma casta se ha dedicado a destrozarnos gestionando nuestro "espacio cognitivo" hasta neutralizarnos.

Me temo que si pensamos que el problema es el "pisito" no tardaremos en darnos cuenta de que, quizás inocentemente, estamos cooperando con el sistema y evitando abordar lo que de verdad pasa.

A esta gente el escenario de la Guerra, largamente buscado, les viene de perlas.

Saludos cordiales
 

PS. Un gran cibernético, Stafford Beer, escribió en 1975: "Los objetivos de los diseñadores de un sistema se deducen de sus resultados"   Platform for Change

[newclo]

Don Manu

Me parece fatal que hayamos estado a menos de 2 horas de distancia y no haber sido invitado a estar de oyente a cualquiera de esas reuniones.

Soy un joven de 4x años, con gran preocupación sobre esos tema, con una empresa industrial a la que guiar y que conozco chiringuitos estupendos y ya he aprendido a estar callado y escuchar, además de estar dispuesto a invitar al condumio en agradecimiento.
Desde los 13 años ( por no decir desde los 3) me he ido formando pegado a personas muy sabias 50-60 años mayores que yo... es decir, haría cualquier cosa por poder escucharles un ratito a usted y a sus nonagenarias amistades.

Avise, si aún siguen por la zona, que pido permiso a la familia para acercarme donde sea

Con sobaos, quesadas o anchoas... porque angulas ahora no hay

(mi teléfono por privado, si lo acepta)

[newclo]

Vengo de varios día de viaje y acabo de leer todos sus últimos mensajes, incluido el de Asustadisimos

Se podrá estar de acuerdo en todo, en parte o incluso algunos en nada... pero:

Brillantísimos


Él...y ustedes

Me pongo las pilas para no quedarme atrás

GRACIAS

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/7dd4c3f0-0a8e-49ce-8022-9c8d75af3e3d

Who will pay for the shift from efficiency to resilience?

Western politicians want companies to foot the bill for post-neoliberal economics

Are we entering a new era of wealth redistribution? Or will the imbalances between capital and labour that have characterised the past half century of economic history linger on?

It’s a question worth asking, particularly in the US, as inflation bites and midterm elections loom.

A little over three years ago in this column, I argued that we were leaving the era of wealth accumulation that began with the Reagan-Thatcher revolution and moving to a new era in which the balance of power between capital and labour would shift somewhat in the direction of the latter.

Putting aside the UK’s new prime minister Liz Truss, who seems to want to bring back the 1980s, I think we are finally entering the post-neoliberal era, particularly in the US, where the power imbalances are most pronounced.

There has been, in many OECD nations, a decoupling of productivity and wages over the past 40 years, during which time the corporate sector took a larger share of national income gains. But while 55 per cent of productivity gains in western Europe still go to labour, American workers have to duke it out for a mere 14 per cent — and most of that goes to the top third of workers.

Deglobalisation, which will favour local labour markets in some industries, is starting to shift that dynamic. Ageing demographics, which will create a structurally tighter labour market, as well as millions of new onshore jobs in the caring professions, is too.

But the third part of the capital-labour story is the increasing pressure on companies to bolster the position of consumers and the state in a time of rising costs. Inflation is happening for all sorts of reasons, but one of those is a shift in economic focus from efficiency to resilience. Both the public and private sectors are looking to buffer themselves from climate change, geopolitics and market shifts. Changes in supply chains, reserve currency allocations and fiscal policies are all part of this. But resilience costs money. The question is, who will pay?

Governments want companies to bear some of the burden. Consider the discussion about price controls in the energy and power sector, as the G7 nations look for ways to curb spiralling gas and electricity costs. The EU is hoping to levy windfall taxes on non-gas electricity producers when their market prices exceed a certain threshold.

In the US, Congress wrote price controls on prescription drugs into the Inflation Reduction Act budget bill in August. There is also a push to put a floor under labour markets across entire industries (something that’s atypical in America, where unionisation usually happens company by company). California’s governor Gavin Newsom just signed a bill that may increase wages in the fast-food industry to $22 an hour starting next year. Even the business-friendly commerce secretary Gina Raimondo is advocating that companies pony up more to help pay for worker training and childcare.

There is also a huge push around President Joe Biden’s worker-centred trade policy, which was front and centre at last week’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity Ministerial in Los Angeles. Some national security officials are eager to cut new deals with countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Brunei as part of America’s effort to increase its own economic and security power base in Asia to counter China.

Katherine Tai, the US trade representative, is keen to ensure domestic labour doesn’t suffer in the process, as are progressives such as Rosa DeLauro, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. They, along with 42 House Democrats, wrote a letter to the Biden administration last week requesting more transparency around the Asia trade negotiations, so they don’t become a race to the bottom.

As Tai put it to me: “There’s a lot in play in terms of balancing domestic and international economic policy.” But new trade deals, in her view, must not mean lower wages for American workers, lower environmental standards or allowing multinational companies to avoid taxes or lock in monopoly power. “This is about building the economy from the bottom up and the middle out,” she says.

Tai only controls trade talks. The Department of Commerce, which has been more sympathetic to Big Tech, for example, is in charge of talks around supply chains, infrastructure and tax. And security hawks are sympathetic to the “bigger is better” argument being put forward by corporate America.

But it would be folly for Democrats to do anything that is seriously problematic for the labour outlook, in advance of the autumn midterm elections. Recapturing the working class is crucial to keeping a majority in Congress. Research shows that the Democratic loss of factory towns (such as the one I grew up in) hollowed out by the past 20 years of neoliberal trade policy are a large part of what made Donald Trump possible.

President Biden has always been sympathetic to labour interests and key appointees such as the Federal Trade Commission’s Lina Khan and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Gary Gensler have put this at the heart of their mission. But to make the “work not wealth” slogan really meaningful, Democrats need to win big in the midterms. If they do, look for the capital-labour power balance to shift even further.

[Derby]

https://fortune.com/2022/09/12/elon-musk-inflation-deflation-fed-interest-rates-tesla/

Elon Musk has gone from worrying about inflation to worrying about the opposite awfully fast

What a difference five months can make.

In April, Elon Musk told analysts that he believed inflation was worse than was being reported at the time and would likely continue through 2022.

Now he’s singing (or tweeting) a different tune.

The Tesla CEO is now worried that a major interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve could kick off deflation. “A major Fed rate hike risks deflation,” Musk tweeted on Friday without elaborating further.

Just a month ago, at Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in August, Musk said the economy was past its worst period of inflation, noting that the cost of most of the commodities and parts that go into Tesla’s cars would decline in the upcoming six months. The inflation reported in the consumer price index indeed hit a year-over-year peak of 9.1% in June before slightly declining to 8.5% in July.

“The trend is down, which suggests we are past peak inflation,” Musk said at the meeting, Bloomberg reported. He said he thought inflation would “drop rapidly” and that he expected only a “mild recession” in the next 18 months.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-12/ukrainian-successes-raise-russian-collapse-to-realm-of-possible

Ukrainian Successes Raise Russian Collapse to Realm of Possibility

The extraordinary speed and success of Ukraine’s northern counteroffensive is raising possibilities that few entertained when Russia invaded Ukraine in February: That its military could be defeated, or that it might even collapse.

A rapid meltdown remains unlikely, with even the day’s battlefield developments unclear, let alone the plans and precise conditions of the Russian and Ukrainian militaries. Russia still controls about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, dwarfing even the 3,000 square kilometers (1,158 square miles) Ukraine says it retook this month.

Nonetheless, for Russian and western military observers alike there was little doubt that the latest offensive marks a turning point in the largest armed conflict Europe has seen since World War II, at a minimum disrupting President Vladimir Putin’s stated goal of capturing all of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

“I would say it’s both pivotal and dangerous,” former CIA director and US defense secretary Leon Panetta said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Balance of Power With David Westin.” Worrying that Russia could escalate the conflict, including with a potential tactical nuclear strike, if it feels at risk of losing, Panetta said, “It’s dangerous because Putin, if he’s boxed in, he has to strike back.”(...)

[Derby]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deflation-deck-ny-fed-inflation-expectations-plunge-2-year-low-dragged-tumbling-gas-prices

Deflation On Deck? NY Fed Inflation Expectations Plunge To 2 Year Low, Dragged By Tumbling Gas Prices, Housing Slump

With inflation expectations suddenly tumbling across the board, the best example of which is the collapse in 2Y Breakevens which are hitting fresh 2Y lows every day amid the ongoing collapse in commodity prices, which has prompted some (i.e., us) to rhetorically wonder last week when the Fed will start cutting rates...



... moments ago the latest NY Fed consumer expectations survey confirmed what we already know, namely that both one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations posted steep declines in August, from 6.2% and 3.2% in July to 5.7% and 2.8% respectively.



(...)

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/09/12/631e381d468aeb863d8b4596.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20220912/page/2/textview

Fuerte inversión en promoción inmobiliaria

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/2022/09/12/631e3deee5fdea62608b457b.html

Saludos.